The Nation Newspaper

Category: Emmanuel Oladesu

  • Division in political dynasties

    Division in political dynasties

    Psychologists believe that in human relationships, familial bonds are stronger than any other outside the regular human relationship unit. They postulate that man prioritises the survival of close kith and kin over non-kin. In their studies of “survival fitness” behaviour, psychologists maintain that blood is thicker than water.

    Familial bonds and relationships are said to be stronger, more important, and more enduring than bonds with friends, associates and acquaintances.

    The implication is that no matter the situation, and even in the face of intense conflicts, family loyalty should take precedence.

    But some other studies have thrown up rare cases of relationships that jettison family for personal benefits. Partisan politics and cult allegiance often break this norm. Differences in political views may not strengthen family bonds, leading to a sort of split loyalty to backgrounds and interests. Since interests ultimately define goals and directions in politics, the features of competition and antagonism are expressed, resulting in hostility and mistrust.

    While people are born into families, they are moulded by the wider environment through education, learning, and exposure. Individuals from the same household begin to exhibit unique personality traits that distinguish one person from another due to the development of intelligence and skills as they move up in life. They form attitudes and respond differently to the socio-political milieu, reflecting diversity of orientation, aptitudes and beliefs.

    Some prominent families associated with vast business empires are perturbed by the choice of their offspring opting for careers in entertainment instead of the boardroom. That is the manifestation of individual differences.

    Many legal luminaries with successful practice sent their children to the law school, only to realise that the lawyer-son came back home as a D-Jay due to the non-alignment of interests.

    However, political differences between father and son, husband and wife, and among siblings tend to generate attention, as it currently does in the case of Abba Atiku, son of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Abba recently defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC). His father is one of the bigwigs in the opposition platform, the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

    It is because Atiku, who has been nursing a presidential ambition since Abba was a toddler, has yet to realise his dream. Ahead of next year’s poll, the former vice president is on the queue again, and his son appears not ready to ride in the same partisan boat with his dad. Or is it a decoy?

    Abba is just one of the 30 children of the Wazirin Adamawa. No law forbids him from supporting his father as a member of another party, even if the PDP or ADC views it as an anti-party activity. His father is unperturbed by the shift in alliance because as an adult, he is at liberty to choose his path. Atiku, the likely presidential candidate of the ADC, said: “The decision of my son, Abba Abubakar, to join the APC is entirely personal. In a democracy, such choices are neither unusual nor alarming, even when family and politics intersect. As a democrat, I do not coerce my own children in matters of conscience, and I certainly will not coerce Nigerians.”

    Abba has defected. But the heir, Umar, a commissioner in Adamawa State, is still in PDP. It is a consolation.

    Abba’s case is not the first in history. But he is not contesting against his father as Dr. Samuel Ikoku did in the late 1950s. The scholar and ideologue, after returning from the London School of Economics and Political Science, joined the defunct Action Group (AG) and became the main rival of his illustrious father, Dr. Alvan Ikoku, a member of the Eastern Regional House of Assembly seeking a second term on the platform of the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC). The young man defeated his old man, who accepted his fate. The episode drew the curtains on the political career of the eminent educationist and statesman.

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    In Ikenne, Ogun State, a prominent lawyer, Chief Kehinde Sofola of NCNC, opposed his cousin, Awolowo. Asked by a reporter when he turned 80 why he took a different path, he said it was based on principle, adding that he hated pomposity, intimidation and timidity.

    Although the NCNC and AG carried their 1951 feud to the independence year and could not agree on a workable alliance, ‘Unbreakable’ Oluwole, son of the jailed AG leader, Obafemi Awolowo, later teamed up with the NCNC in 1964 by joining the campaign train of Chief Theophilus Owolabi Shobowale (TOS) Benson.

    While politics can be a divisive factor in the family, the tension can also be managed by the exhibition of maturity. It was that level of maturity, tolerance, and understanding that enabled Dr. Clement Gomwalk and his wife, Hellen, to cope as a couple despite their contrasting political leanings. The husband was the National Secretary of the defunct Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), and the wife was a top notcher of the then ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN) from Plateau State.

    It was a different ball game in the large Shitta-Bey family, where the two siblings, Sikiru and Rasheed, fought to a standstill for the Lagos Central senatorial ticket of the UPN in 1979. Both were household names in the country. Sikiru, a lawyer and Secretary of Action Group Youth Association, led by Ayo Fasanmi, was a House of Representatives member in the First Republic. His younger brother was an outstanding student leader who ventured into business and became a resounding success.

    Pleas to them to step down for each other fell on deaf ears. The party leader, Awolowo, intervened. Eventually, Sikiru got the ticket to the Senate and Rasheed to the House of Representatives. For a very long time, they were not on talking terms. Efforts by the then-Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu to settle the inexplicable rift during Sikiru’s 75th birthday in Lagos failed.

    In the current dispensation, the two deceased siblings were politically separated after the collapse of the Alliance for Democracy (AD). But the political difference did not affect the relationship between or among their wives and children.

    Even, two Tinubus – governor and former Head of Service – also had their quarrel in Lagos. The retired civil servant later drew up an imaginary family tree and excluded his brother to spite him. It paled into a hoax. The book presentation was shunned by all and sundry. The objective was defeated.

    It was worse between the two Dosunmu brothers – Dr. Wahab and Rasheed – who were locked in rivalry between 1979 and 1983 in Lagos State. The younger brother, Wahab, was NPN’s Minister of Housing; his elder brother was a prominent UPN chieftain in Lagos. The feud degenerated into a shouting match and violence, fuelled by the rival parties and supporters. The language of warfare was fabricated by supporters who claimed that a sibling said if his brother died in the process, he would be around to cater for his widow and children.

     The quarrel only subsided after the collapse of the Second Republic. In political adversity under the military rule, they reunited.

    Also, In the last three months of the Second Republic, Omololu Olunloyo and Oye Olunloyo,  had a disagreement. The governor announced that the past administration would be probed. He turned his attention to the Ibadan Municipal Council, firing salvos at the former chairman, Oye Olunloyo, reiterating his plan to probe its finances. The governor said family consideration and Ibadan solidarity were out of it. Military intervention in politics truncated the probe plan.

    Around 2006, a certain Oyinkansola surfaced with the claim of a biological link with the Kwara kingpin, Dr. Olusola Saraki. The semblance could hardly be disputed. The media attempted to feast on the fact that another Saraki, who had joined the Action Congress (APC), had elected to oppose her elder brother, Kwara State Governor Bukola Saraki, and father who were the custodians of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state. It paled into a feeble attempt.

    But both Bukola and Gbemisola had to part ways in 2011 when the Second Republic Senate Leader sponsored her for governor and Bukola insisted on the candidature of Abdulfatah Ahmed. The old man, who mounted the podium in aid of his beloved daughter, found out too late that he had been displaced by his son. The campaign had become hectic in the face of diminishing agility.

    Gbemisola, who ran on the platform of ACPN, lost to Bukola’s candidate.

    The rivalry continued, with Gbemisola, who later defected to the APC, becoming a minister in the Muhammadu Buhari administration. Bukola remains the Kwara PDP leader. But two years ago, when a Saraki building was demolished by the state government in Ilorin, both momentarily put their differences aside and came together to defend the legacies of their father.

    To a lesser degree, divisions in political dynasties are better managed these days through sheer tolerance and mutual understanding. Thus, no ripple was generated when Blessing Onuh, daughter of David Mark, made an adventurous journey to APGA.

    Also, while former Governor Ayo Fayose of PDP campaigns for APC, his siblings fire salvos at him from other opposition platforms. It is now comical.

    In Kaduna, Mohammed Bello of the House of Representatives and son of former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, is in APC, which his father dumped for the ADC. No strain relationship is decipherable.

    In Edo, the Igbinedion siblings distribute themselves into APC and the PDP, and there is no discord.

    Political maturity goes on display where families see partisanship as ephemeral and family bonds as permanent.

    Politics can be terminated and participation brought to an end. Party office can be deserted, but nobody can ‘decamp’ from his family to another.

  • Lagos and 2027 battle (2)

    Lagos and 2027 battle (2)

    Ahead of the electioneering, other names being speculated are Jimi Benson,  member of the House of Representatives from Ikorodu, who succeeded Abike Dabiri-Erewa, chairman of the Diaspora Commission (NiDCOM).

    Benson is the toast of Ikorodu Division. If Ikorodu Division is a state, he may automatically become governor. He has attracted many Federal Government projects to the constituency, which has accorded him fame and increased the popularity of the party.

    Also, many Lagosians take  the technocrat and experienced politician, Senator Adetokunbo Abiru, very serious. They want him to run because they perceived him as a performer.

    Abiru, who hails from an illustrious Ikorodu family, is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN). A loyal chieftain, patriot, astute public administrator, his competence and giant strides in the banking sector have been celebrated. Never afraid of challening situations, anything he touches turns to gold. Abiru enjoys the trust of the party, its leadership and the state.

    But sources insist that the financial expert may not personally seek the governorship ticket unless he is called upon to take up the role in furtherance of his dedicated and consistent service to the state, the nation and humanity.

    Currently, Abiru is representing Lagos East District in the Senate. He served meritoriously as Finance Commissioner in the Fashola administration before returning to the unfinished business of banking.

    He was appointed in July 2016 by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as the Group Managing Director to lead the turnaround of the regulator-induced takeover of the then-troubled Skye Bank, in a bid to preserve the stability of the overall Nigerian Financial System. The successful completion of the assignment gave birth to today’s Polaris Bank Limited.

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    Abiru has also served on various boards, including Airtel Mobile Networks Limited; FBN Capital Limited (now FBN Quest Merchant Bank Limited); FBN Bank Sierra –Leone Limited; and Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System Plc (NIBSS).

    More names would be speculated as the Lagosians gaze at 2027.

    Lagos APC is regenerating itself. It can boast of a unique academy of successors, who are being groomed and nurtured on the code of trust and service, and their consistency and reliability are not in doubt. It is however, a mixed grill of exceptiional children of party gerontocrats and legends, and other hardworking, dynamic, competent and promising youths. Many of them were thrown up by their personal exposure to activism and mobilisation from campus days. They exhibit traits that underscore giftedness, talentednes, giftedness and creativity. Others have risen to the pinnacle of their professions in the thriving private sector.

    Many of them did not enter politics at the top. They were privileged to rise through the ranks, climbing the hierachial ladder of leadership, service and learning.

    After the collapse of proposed  60:40 formula for offiice sharing in AD in 2023, Asiwaju Tinubu concentrated on party building, nurturing and strengthening the structure, which has now stood the test of time. He attracted a cult followership in his base and region before becoming a bridge builder with vast networks across the federation.

    A party offiicial said: “I can mention, at least, 50 names that are worthy of being saddled with the leadership of Lagos State; men and women who have learned at the feet of Asiwaju.

    “They are exactly like the leader, but they have acquired his traits and styles of politics and administration that made him successful.”

    According to the official, “Asiwaju has been identifying and targetting some promising youths, who are men of the future. They are talented and they look promising. Many of them do not realise that they are being prepared for the fuuture.”

    However, there is a subsisting debate over the preference of the party for technocrats as against core politicians. The argument may be weak. A feature of one tends to run into the other. Technocrats have done the state proud as governors, and they ultimately end becoming politicians. The politicians who loathe technocrats forget to realise that once upon a time, they were also technocrats before venturing into politics.

    How is the PDP faring? The Lagos chapter is down completely, weakened by the multiple crises ravaging the divided platform. The Lagos PDP is torn apart across the local governments. But the state executive committee is made up of officers loyal to the Board of Trustees (BoT) member, Chief Olabode George, who is recognised as the state’s party leader by the national leadership.

    PDP broke down long time ago. It was erected on a shaky foundation in Lagos. After its first chairman, Olorunfunmi Basorun, was asked to step aside, the party started to wobble from one crisis to another. In 27 years, the chapter has produced over 10 chairmen – Basorun, Muritala Ashorobi, Alaba Williams, Mr. Williams, Setonji Koshoedo,Captain Tunji Shelle, Adegoke Salvador, Adedeji Doherty, and Philip Aivoji. It smacked of leadership instability.

    Those who ran from AD/AC/ACN to PDP -Adeseye Ogunlewe, the late Rafiu Jafojo, Olufemi Pedro, Musiliu Obanikoro, Remi Adikwu-Bakare, Wahab Owokoniran etc – later ran back. They compared the two platforms and saw the futility of political wandering.

    Unlike in the past, the chapter is in want of a suitable candidate, following the defections that hit the party.

    Chinedu Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour has left the party for the African Democratic Congress (ADC), while Jide Adediran has retraced his steps back to APC.

    The only aspirant on the platform, for now, is Funso Doherty, who ran for governor four years ago on the platform of a smaller party. He managed to be visible at the factional convention in Adamasingba Stadium, Ibadan.

    Since 1999, PDP has been kept under check by the AD, AC, ACN and now APC. Its 1999 candidate, Chief Dapo Sarunmi,  lost to Asiwaju Tinubu; Funso Williams also lost in 2003.

    Four years later, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, a defector from AD, lost to Fashola. In 2011, Ade Dosunmi could not make any impact.

    In the 2015 contest, Jimi Agbade, who was persuaded to try his luck in PDP after his failed attempt in Democratic Peoples Alliance (DPA), could not defeat Akin Ambode.

    In 2019, Agbaje, after feelers from the electoral commission on the poll outcome, conceded defeat to Sanwo-Olu.

    Adediran strayed from APC to PDP, lost his deposit and returned to base.

    The three people from AD/AC/ACN/APC – Obanikori, Agbaje and Adediran – could not delivery victory to the main opposition party.

    Many politicians are deserting PDP, which is currently at crossroads over the protracted leadership crisis. Since there is no end in sight to the logjam, it is risky for anybody with governorship ambition to adopt it as a platform.

    Labour Pary (LP) appears to be in a similar mess, no thanks to the rift between the National Caretaker Committee headed by Senator Esther Nenadi-Usman and the faction led by Julius Abure. Both factions are still in court.

    If Peter Obi returns to LP as presidential candidate, it may enliven the members of the structureless party, particularly the Obedients, in Lagos. If he becone the ADC candidate, Lagos LP will automatically shift allegiance to ADC.

    The arrowheads of ADC in Lagos are Owokoniran and Funmi Onita-Coker. The national secretary,  Raud Aregbesola, understands the Lagos terrain. But he may not be able to penetrare as he contends with a fading influence in the state.

    Also, Lagos Labour Party (LP) is not in a good shape, having been deserted by many chieftains, following protracted crises.

    The appeal of the LP in the state seems to have evaporated after Rhodes-Vivour lost in the 2023 election. The erstwhile LP candidate has hinted that he might fly the ADC flag in the 2027 general election. But the party has neither confirmed nor denied the hint. It remains to be seen if Rhodes-Vivour still wields the same clout the LP gave him through the social media warrior in his former party.

    With the influx of desperate gold diggers who want to reap where they did not sow in Lagos, 2027 will turn out to be interesting in many aspects. But the ruling party and its leading lights need to watch out for a likely repeat of the 2023 experience when non-indigenes plotted to take over the state by hook or crook. Nothing should be left to chances. No discerning party goes to sleep with an agitated opposition brandishing fire near its roof to take over the property.

  • Lagos and 2027 battle (1)

    Lagos and 2027 battle (1)

    Political parties in Lagos State have kicked off preparations for the 2027 general election by mobilising for membership registration. The chapters are also warming up for congresses. Next year, there will be a vacancy in the Government House.

    The seat of power is prestigious, with Lagos being the fifth-largest economy in Africa. The governor of the Centre of Excellence is more than the combination of 10 other governors in Nigeria.

    So limitless are the resources and opportunities. So populous is the megacity. So huge are also the responsibilities and burdens of governing the fast-growing state that is a mini-Nigeria; a blend of diversity, potentials, and liabilities.

    The battle is always fierce, but the outcome is always predictable.

    There is no shortage of competent chieftains to succeed Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu on the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in next year’s election.

    Opposition parties are trying to make the same claim without concrete proof. Since 1999, they have made serious and feeble efforts to dethrone the ruling bloc, but without success.

    Will 2027 be different?

    APC is exuding confidence in Lagos, its number one stronghold. Although opposition parties are coming up with their peculiar threats and struggles, eyes are only on the ruling party. The large and formidable structure has withstood the stress and storm for almost three decades.

    Yet, the ruling party can hardly let down its guard, given its 2023 experience when the incumbency power and influence collapsed during the presidential poll, with the Labour Party (LP) taking the majority votes over the supposedly poll-confident platform.

    Lagos APC members are eager to know the party’s stand on its possible flagbearer in next year’s poll and the senatorial district that will produce him. More often than not, those being groomed for power may not even take note.

    Historically, the senatorial districts, constituencies, and even divisions may not really matter. They are mixed and interwoven. There is hardly a clear-cut demarcation. In the past, Senator Tokunbo Afikuyomi, who represented the Central District in the Senate, met himself in the West during the following election. The senator is even a Lagosian of Osun origin. Also, erstwhile House of Assembly Speaker Yemi Ikuforiji from Epe Constituency later represented Ikeja Constituency. The party is the ultimate decider of the direction. Currently, an Epe-born politician is representing Ikeja in the Civil Service Commission because he resides in Isolo, which is part of the old Lagos Division.

    Once the candidate receives the majority endorsement in the party, a post-primary crisis is nipped in the bud and the party faces the election squarely.

    As Sanwo-Olu prepares to bow out, gladiators are returning to the drawing board to perfect their strategies. They are intensifying consultations and underground mobilisation within the party structures. They can hardly wait for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) whistle.

    Some of them are setting up media structures. All are saving for the rainy day. A source said some of the aspirants will go to Makkah in Saudi Arabia to seek the favour of Allah.

    Unlike in other states, the potential contenders in Lagos are careful not to divert the attention of the governor and heat up the state. They are only making moves silently, scrambling for reliable information and hearing the party’s stalwarts out.

    However, the nomination of candidate may follow the usual complex and challenging processes. The trend of consensus is emerging in the ruling party as canvassed by the party’s gerontocrats, including pioneer interim national chairman, Chief Bisi Akande, from the the days of the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD). The option, more or less, was adopted in picking Governor Biodun Oyebanji of Ekiti and Bola Oyebamiji of Osun.

    Lagos is the base of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and at least in the ruling party, the buck stops at his desk. He holds the aces in a state he has set on the path of steady progress since 1999. He initiated a 24-year-old  development, which has now been expanded.

    The contemporary history of Lagos attests to the mystery of its succession politics whereby, since 2007, there is no member of the ruling parties – AD, AC, ACN, and APC – who vied for the ticket and got it without the President’s backing.

    Asiwaju Tinubu’s successors – Babatunde Fasola, Akinwunmi Ambode, and Sanwo-Olu – have one thing in common. In reality, they are not politicians with solid personal structures but technocrats – lawyer, chartered accountant, and banker – who became outstanding in public service as Chief of Staff, Accountant-General, and Commissioner. None of them is a big politician, personal friend, confidant, ally, and political associate of the leader.

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    However, in Lagos APC, only a loyal chieftain can get the ticket. Many have given different interpretations to this concept. But the politicians know the meaning and the essence. Historians will record that while Fashola is credited with the idea of “may your loyalty never be tested,” Sanwo-Olu now comes across as the actual communicator of the strategies for survival. Known for his simplicity, humility, and dedication to the development plan, his successor is expected to build on his good leadership.

    Since 2015, no incumbent governor has been in charge of the nomination process. They can only contribute to the party in the overall discussion on the collective succession agenda.

    Religion may not be an important factor. The fact that the majority of those eyeing the ticket are Muslims is coincidental. However, for balancing, religion may later play a role in the choice of the running mate.

    Indigeneship appears to be a fading issue in cosmopolitan Lagos. Apart from Asiwaju Tinubu, who is a proper and authentic Lagosian, sources have traced the roots of his successors to Ekiti, Ondo, and Ogun.

    As a corollary, zoning is weak unless it is meant to achieve a predetermined agenda. The only sub-zone rooting for zoning or rotation in 2027 is the Badagry Division in the Lagos West Senatorial District. The activities of some politicians from the area in this regard are visible in the media. The implication is that a slim strength is being showcased on the platform of ethnicity.

    That many aspirants are from Lagos East does not suggest any verbalisation or adoption of zoning. Certain issues are often effectively managed by party leaders because they fall within the framework of internal affairs.

    Also, gender is not an issue, although women’s voices tend to favour the choice of a woman deputy governor, if the circumstances allow it.

    To serve as Lagos governor is the handwork of fate and destiny. While the privilege eluded giants like Chief Akanbi Onitiri, Chief Adeniran Ogunsanya, Alhaji Ganiyu Dawodu, and Prince Ladega Adeniji-Adele, luck smiled on Alhaji Lateef Jakande, an Awoist journalist jailed along with Obafemi Awolowo for alleged treason in the sixties.

    Also, while Chief Dapo Sarunmi, Prof. Femi Agbalajobi, Chief Yomi Edu, and Prince Abiodun Ogunleye could not make it, Chief Michael Otedola miraculously stole the show in the Third Republic.

    Ahead of the Fourth Republic, Mr. Akin Kekere-Ekun, Dr. Wahab Dosunmu, Alhaji Rasheed Shitta-Bey, Towry Coker, and Uthman Sodipe presented themselves for selection. But Lagos-based Afenifere leaders of Ogun origin rooted for Senator Tinubu, a National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) financier who just returned from exile. Their words were final in those days. Tinubu won and made a great impact.

    In 2007, no fewer than 14 aspirants printed posters. They included Erikitola, Rahman Owokoniran, Tokunbo Afikuyomi, Femi Pedro, Tola Kasali, Ogunleye, Jimi Agbaje, Tunde Fanimokun, Remi Adikwu-Bakare, and Hakeem Gbajabiamila. Attention later shifted to Fashola, described by the leader as the SAN with a sound mind.

    As some aspirants stepped down in 2015, Ambode and Obafemi Hamzat were left in the ring. The result was predictable. Four years later, Sanwo-Olu suddenly dominated the scene. Other capable people, like Supo Sasore and Muiz Banire, were off the radar. It is, therefore, difficult to predict who will become the standard-bearer.

    All the aspirants being speculated are good. The party leadership is conscious of their strengths and weaknesses. Some of them have ‘Plan B.’ They are in the race as a strategy to draw attention so that they can be considered for other positions if the governorship ticket predictably slips away.

    Others really mean business. If Dr. Hamzat puts his hat in the ring, nobody would be surprised.

    The deputy governor, who competed with Ambode at the 2015 primary, was offered the ticket as the running mate in 2019 before stepping down for Sanwo-Olu. He is now the longest-serving member of the Lagos State Executive Council (Exco).

    Since he joined the Tinubu administration as a commissioner in 2002/’3, he has always been in the government. Hamzat served for eight years under Fashola as commissioner before becoming his Special Adviser when he was Works Minister. He is a man of immense experience with attention to detail.

    Environment Commissioner Tokunbo Wahab is a lawyer. He is dynamic and hardworking. Before his current assignment, he had served as the Special Adviser on Education. He first showed interest in the number one seat over 10 years ago.

    The state’s Chief of Staff, Tayo Ayinde, who was preferred as the successor to Ambode by some influential associates of Tinubu in 2015, has garnered more administrative experience in the last seven years. A security expert, he was the campaign manager for Sanwo-Olu in the Independent Campaign Group in 2019 and 2023. He is loyal to the party.

    Other experienced politicians coveting the seat and putting up personal structures to actualise their dreams include the President’s Chief of Staff and former House of Representatives Speaker Femi Gbajabiamila, who has sponsored empowerment programmes in Surulere Constituency and beyond; House of Assembly Speaker Mudashiru Obasa, who was reinstated after the impeachment controversy; and former Governor Ambode, whose second-term bid hit the rocks in 2019. They have served the party and the state to the best of their abilities. As wealthy politicians, they are in positions to fund state-wide governorship campaigns.

    Other contenders being speculated are young men and women of note and distinction who have excelled and earned a good reputation in politics, public service and personal endeavours. One of them is the highly promising Hakeem Muri-Okunola, a lawyer who had served as Head of Service in Lagos State before becoming the Principal Private Secretary to the President.

    Also, mention has been made of the Minister of Education, Dr. Tunji Alausa, who is up and doing in his current assignment. A distinguished medical doctor, he is a former Minister of State for Health. Alausa is revolutionalising education in the country through the implementation of broad, bold, brave, and workable reforms in the critical sector. The student loans scheme is being implemented faithfully and industrial peace has been restored in the ivory towers.

  • Opposition and the phobia for taxation

    Opposition and the phobia for taxation

    It is strange that the new tax laws, and the motivation behind the structural reforms, are being twisted by armchair critics and opposition figures who know the truth but prefer to deny it.

    But the resistance is futile. The law became operational in the first week of the year, and the general public is not fooled by the falsehoods from detractors, saboteurs and fraudsters who prefer “business as usual”.

    Having failed to halt the passage of the legislations by the National Assembly, opposition leaders, who may not have even bothered to study and digest the Act, have curiously regressed into manipulative propaganda aimed at whipping up emotions in a bid to incite Nigerians and discredit the government.

    Ahead of the electioneering, the opposition is losing ground and destructive criticisms have replaced civilised scrutiny. They, therefore, seek short-lived collaboration with their confederates in the business environment. These lackeys perceive that their interests are at risk because the curtains are being drawn on long years of their mindless economic sabotage.

    In the coordinated attacks, a lawmaker stood up during plenary to allege a gap between the Bills passed by the National Assembly and the one assented to by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Up to now, he has not provided the proof of doctoring, alteration, or padding in the law to reinforce his allegation.

    Shockingly, African Democratic Congress (ADC) leader Atiku Abubakar seemed to have taken up the fight from there, alleging that the gazetted laws contain unauthorised alterations, which, in his view, amounted to forgery and a “grave constitutional issue”. He called for a fresh legislative vote rather than re-gazetting to correct what has paled into imaginary discrepancies.

    When the former Vice President alluded to a compromised or flawed process that undermined legislative authority, Nigerians knew that he was playing his peculiar brand of politics.

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    The 2027 electioneering, to political actors outside power, is nearer than imagined. In Nigeria, there is hardly a demarcation between politics and governance. Politics has ceased to be a vocation. It is now a full-time occupation of economic value. This has its implications for the ballot box war, often fought with bitterness and desperation.

    The concern of the former Vice President may not be whether or not the combined tax laws conform to the cardinal principles of fairness, certainty, convenience and efficiency. The fear among the political foes of the government is that the success of the bold and brave reforms may enrich the scorecard of the administration and increase its popularity ratings among the voting public.

    The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) may have also turned itself into a partisan party when it rejected the laws, which it grudgingly labelled a “distorted,” regressive, and unpatriotic enactment that can cause further hardship for workers. NLC President Joe Ajaero demanded a review, alleging lack of consultation and calling for the suspension of the “unpatriotic” tax policies that lack the face of justice. The union leader omitted the benefit of exceptions. He also failed to explain how renaming the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) to Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) can affect workers’ welfare.

    But the attention of Nigerians, particularly those from the financial sector, was arrested by the KPMP’s analysis, which alluded to what it called multiple errors and gaps in the consolidated laws, which the reputable firm apparently failed to point out earlier during the consideration of the Bills at the parliamentary hearings and perusals.

    To the extent that the firm could not adequately avail itself of the opportunity of pointing out those hidden gaps and errors, particularly during the public hearing organised by the National Assembly, some observers tend to argue that the firm’s post-assent observation is an afterthought meant to perforate an iron-cast legislation designed for the benefit of the masses.

    Certain professional firms are indeed entitled to engagements with policymakers and drivers to foster an understanding of the scope, focus, and limitations of the legal frameworks and the basis for improvement. Since society is dynamic, such interactions may be essential to the evolution of new ideas in aid of the current law, thereby making strategic amendments imperative in the future.

    As the implementation of the law was about to commence, business barons and other tax evaders, who perceived themselves as the targets of the visionary and revolutionary initiatives, became weary to stand on the way until their propaganda overwhelmed the low-income earners, taking along the gullible.

    The trick was to mobilise the poor and the indigent and expand the scope of feeble resistance to the pieces of legislation that do not have the potential to hurt even the middle class.

    But the gap in constructive criticisms remained open due to the deliberate omission by subjective critics of the N800,000 annual tax-free threshold. If an intervention by a tax regime does not bridge or close the gulf between the rich and the poor, it is not meaningful and progressive. Here lies the friendliness of the law, its captivating beauty, its human face, its human heart and milk of human kindness.

    The significance of the tax reforms is the relief to the masses – the average worker – through the increased disposable income achieved through the exception. Taxes on rent and essential electronic transfers below ₦10,000 and multiple taxation on small businesses have been removed. The goals is to lower inflation, foster equity by taxing high earners more, and boost infrastructure investment.

    As small companies with lower turnover are exempted from certain taxes, they are allowed to grow, and the threshold for company income tax is increased to ₦50 million yearly. If all these are properly explained to the average worker, the propaganda of those enlisting them into an unnecessary battle against the Federal Government would be futile.

    If, in pursuance of harmonisation and greater efficiency, the small taxes at federal, state, and local levels are merged, would the burden on small traders and informal workers not cease?

    If stamp duties are removed for many, and electronic money transfers below ₦10,000 are also exempted, would daily transactions for the average person not be smooth?

    If higher taxes on large corporations and wealthy individuals are designed to fund efficient public services, infrastructure, and social amenities, is it not in the national interest?

    If the projected five-year tax exemption for companies in the agricultural sector is achieved, would it not lower food prices and boost food security?

    Since these tax reforms are designed to shift the focus from taxing poverty to taxing prosperity, the burden on the average Nigerian is reduced while national economic stability is enhanced.

    The fear of taxation, right from the beginning, has always motivated individuals and organisations to dodge the patriotic duty of payment. A great advantage is the push towards economic formalisation, and the large informal sector, which often made revenue collection a herculean task, is tracked. The expansion of the net is bound to reshape the economy.

    To many analysts, the Tinubu administration has effected a paradigm shift by halting the fragmented, old-fashioned, and inefficient tax system that has not yielded optimal revenue and continued to sustain the poor fiscal environment that frustrates growth.

    The hidden Value Added Tax (VAT) is removed from consumer prices, but input VAT on assets and overheads is reviewed. The VT rate, still at 7.5 per cent, presents a more competitive outlook than the 15 per cent in Ghana, 16 per cent in Kenya, and 15 per cent in South Africa.

    Also, the moderate cut in corporate income tax rate to 25 per cent is more favourable than the 30 per cent in Kenya, 27 per cent in South Africa, and 25 per cent in Ghana. Also, the five per cent excise tax on airtime in Nigeria has been reversed, compared to 15 per cent in Kenya and five per cent in Ghana.

    Accordingly, the top marginal tax rate for high-income earners is 25 per cent in the country. It is lower than the 35 per cent in Ghana and Kenya or 45 per cent in South Africa. Nigerian small-scale businesses pay a zero per cent corporate tax rate compared to about three per cent of turnover in Kenya and Ghana. A feature of the VAT design is the widening of the input VAT recovery to assets and overhead as tax administration and compliance become more digital, with much reliance on tax intelligence and risk-based audit.

    Another advantage is the introduction of clearer guidelines for taxation, which would encourage businesses and individuals to register formally. The path to formal financial services, credit facilities, and government support programmes is open to individuals and small organisations. The beauty of formalisation reflects in the resultant transparency, the reduction of bureaucratic bottlenecks, and greater opportunities for wider participation in the economy. The overall result is the anticipatory increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) through a proper focus on production in a conducive economic climate.

    If over 90 per cent of micro and small businesses are out of the “tax-paying” bracket for major taxes – Companies Income Tax (CIT), Capital Gains Tax (CGT), Withholding Tax, VAT, and Development Levy – leading to lighter compliance expectations, and big businesses pay more, there is a reduction in gaps that tend to promote fairness and equity. By ensuring that higher-income individuals and profitable corporations pay more, the pressure on low-income earners is removed.

    As wealthier citizens contribute proportionally more to national development, resources are redistributed without the regression to subsidy, which is appropriated by the rich.

    Also, the opportunity for investment and business growth is enhanced through incentives to investors in many sectors, such as technology, manufacturing, agriculture, and renewable energy. Indeed, as anounced by the tax curator, Taiwo Oyedele, all investors in the capital market are eligible for capital gains tax exemption with over 99 per cent exempted unconditionally based on a threshold of N150 million proceeds and N10 million gains in any 12 months’ period.

    Nigerians can now track how tax revenues are utilised, thereby holding both government and corporate bodies accountable. The added benefit of transparency is that projects that benefit citizens, such as hospitals, schools, and other public infrastructure, can better be funded by the government.

    However, public enlightenment about the essence of taxation should be intensified. This will puncture the misinformation and disinformation machination of opposition figures who, for long, have been the major parasites on the economy and the nation’s astute biggest tax evaders.

  • Challenges before new ambassadors

    Challenges before new ambassadors

    Contemporary diplomatic duty is not a tea party. It does not carry the same colouration as the usual job for the boys. It is a very serious and highly sensitive business. It requires deftness, wisdom, manoeuvring, understanding, calculations, and swiftness. In many situations, every minute counts.

    In a world where might befuddles rationality and propels the “powerful” to trample on small nations’ rights, diplomacy must be deployed to navigate through the times of turbulence to avoid casualties and regrets. Ambassadors reflect the power, integrity, and dignity of their countries and the readiness to maintain visibility in the comity of nations as well as retain a compelling relevance in global affairs.

    It is a special honour for a citizen to be chosen from the crowd to represent his or her country in another country as an ambassador.

    Their Excellences are like the president of the country in their places of assignment, either as careerists or non-career high commissioners.

    As the highest-ranking diplomat in another nation, the ambassador acts as the primary link in promoting political, economic, and cultural ties. He represents the home government’s interests, protects its citizens abroad, and reports on the host country’s situation to inform foreign policy decisions. The ambassador manages the embassy, oversees government personnel, and works to build strong bilateral relations through negotiation and cultural exchange.

    As a political representative, the ambassador is the communicator of official positions and reactions, whose primary assignment is to maintain dialogue with the authorities of the host country. Citizens run to him for rights and welfare protection, particularly during emergencies.

    The countries of the world look for prosperity. This imposes on the chief diplomat the task of economic diplomacy, which involves the promotion of trade and investment, the discovery and creation of business opportunities between his country and the host country.

    The ambassador is not expected to be a sleeping official. He should be a researcher who is adept at information gathering and analysis, using the correct tools. The information about the host nation’s socio-economic and political developments can be used to advise the home government in reshaping foreign relations.

    The promotion of friendliness is key. Countries can become allies, not through military and economic cooperation alone, but also through sheer educational initiatives and cultural exchange to foster mutual goodwill and understanding.

    To underscore his status in the world, the ambassador enjoys diplomatic immunity, and he is protected by international law. Other countries listen when he speaks because his words carry the seal, weight and power of the home government. He is not only the official spokesperson but also a world leader in his own right, saddled with the responsibility of standing in the gap, leading a diplomatic mission and acting as a point of contact for international organisations and other foreign officials.

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    Eminent politician, Dr. Eniola Ajayi, who was once Ekiti State Education Commissioner and later Nigeria’s Ambassador to The Netherlands, with concurrent accreditation to Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (2021 – 2023), summarised the scope of diplomatic duties under four broad headlines: inclusion, investment drive, image building and innovation. She catalogued her experience in a book: ‘Mastering Diplomacy: Essential Guide to International Relations,’ which offers better insights into the challenges of foreign relations and ambassadorial postings.

    As the recently appointed 69 envoys prepare to go to their stations, it is important, apart from the training or seminar being organised for them, to learn from the experience of those before them.

    Four categories of ambassadors will be posted to different countries by the President, either as career or non-career envoys. The first are tested hands, experts and professionals. The second are reputable individuals, like Chief Simeon Adebo and Dr. Christopher Kolade, both of the old dispensation. The third are politicians who are being rewarded or compensated for previous political works. The fourth are a few hustlers, attention-seeking folks who need postings for relevance and enjoyment.

    Ajayi, who spoke on a national television programme, comes across as a diplomacy tutor. She stressed the value of preparation, which greatly enhances learning and coping as an accidental nominee, without the requisite knowledge about the journey.

    In her view, the President has the right – the prerogative – to appoint anybody to, first and foremost, represent him and the larger country, although screening by the Senate is constitutionally required. Equity also demands that the list is representative of the country’s diversity because talents abound across the 36 states. Any glaring case of marginalisation, therefore, is antithetical to democratic inclusion.

    However, the personal life and quality of nominees matter a lot because in their letters of appointment, it is stated that the person has been found worthy in character and given authority to execute their mission as Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary.

    The delay in the appointment of ambassadors can create a void, as underscored by the recent misunderstanding of the security situation in Nigeria by the United States. Ajayi said the truth is that a lot of problems could have been averted if Nigeria had an ambassador in the country. Although there are other officials at the embassy, they lack the accreditation, authorisation and competence to represent Nigeria because of the shortfall in ranking. The implication is that these officials may not be invited to places where they can play ambassadorial roles.

    For those criticising the list of nominees, Ajayi offers some significant insights. Many factors were taken into consideration, ranging from the particular needs of different countries to Nigeria’s expectations and antecedents, as well as the pedigree of the nominees. For example, the military background of nominees may be a factor. Only a Christian could be sent as an envoy to the Vatican and a Muslim to Saudi Arabia, in trying to meet the criteria of sensitivity and sensibility.

    Education, scholarship, public status and past meritorious service to the nation may be responsible for nominating former presidents, Generals and ex-Supreme Court judges for the job.

    Ajayi noted that there are diverse levels of postings. Career diplomats and highly knowledgeable people are usually sent to places of multilateral engagement, like the United Nations, the European Union, and major countries, where skills and competence are needed for the initiation and implementation of agreements.

    This is why orientation programmes usually precede postings. This is also the reason, as Ajayi explained, a Station Charter is given to each ambassador so that he or she would know what is expected in the country of assignment, for the promotion of cordial relations, robust representation and trade improvement.

    The understanding of the Nigerian foreign policy, which is Afrocentrism and non-alignment, is also crucial. It has not changed over time. Ajayi said: “We (Nigeria) don’t carry baggage; we are friends of all, enemy to none.” Nigeria does not take sides, and intelligent and informed positions are taken, based on diplomacy, which is the application of tact and reason.

    Ambassadorial responsibilities are huge to bear. Paucity pf funds could hinder effective performance. Ajayi acknowledged that this is true of many missions. To overcome the constraints, she called for a sort of staff reduction instead of spending a humongous amount on administrative attaches. The funding in the budget is not in dollars but in Naira. To facilitate easy access, the former ambassador said the funding should be from the first line charge.

    Foreign relations are costly, but it is more costly to ignore them. Demonstrating the imperative of diplomatic tact and speed, Ajayi recalled how a row nearly broke out over a boy who hid an explosive in his pants, which was discovered inside the aircraft. The Nigerian diplomat rose swiftly and explained to the country of assignment that it was a one-off case and that the boy’s father had earlier reported his suspicion to the police.

    The new ambassadors can tap from the experience, knowledge and skills of accomplished ambassadors, like Ajayi did when she contacted Ambassador Ayo Olukanmi, who instantly recommended to her a book by the late Ambassador Olusola Sanu. In her testimony, as a lifelong learner, she also learnt about diplomatic etiquette from the wife of former Ekiti State Governor, Erelu Bisi Fayemi.

    As she did in the Netherlands, the new ambassadors are to organise receptions for all their counterparts from other countries after presenting their letters of credence.

    Most importantly, the quest for prosperity in the contemporary world imposes on ambassadors the task of attracting investment by “making sure that what should come to Nigeria comes, and the country is also able to put its goods abroad for sale”.

    These days, investment is the major target of diplomacy. It is central to the economic survival of nations.

    Nigerian citizens abroad should feel the impact of the ambassadors through inclusion and accessibility. In promoting the image of the country, they may need to emulate the style of Ajayi, who set up a vibrant website and a beautiful social media handle.

    Ajayi’s final advice on innovative diplomacy: “In your service delivery, in your representation, you must be robust. You should be prepared to deliver with dignity, respect, humility, a beautiful smile, and you will be accomplished.”

  • Obi and his 2027 calculations

    Obi and his 2027 calculations

    Peter Obi, former governor of Anambra State and serial defector, has jumped ship again.

    He has deserted the Labour Party (LP), which rescued him, gave him a refuge and offered him a platform to contest the 2023 presidential poll.

    His new abode is the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the Siamese half of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), on which platform he paired with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as presidential running mate during the 2019 poll.

    Obi has been involved in the coalition talks from the beginning. But he may have delayed his official declaration in anticipation of a concession. After the defection, the question is: what next? Will Atiku jettison his long-standing presidential ambition and step down for him during the national convention of the party?

    If Atiku steps down, it means the prediction of the marabouts that he will one day rule Nigeria is false. If the Adamawa-born politician comes down from that Olympian height to now become the sponsor of a running mate – a mere spare tyre – to Obi, it is not a good crowning of an illustrious political career.

    Has Obi agreed to serve as the running mate to Atiku in 2027? Will that not be contradictory to his boasting that he never travelled round the world to learn governance just to become a vice president, a footnote or an addendum?

    Is Obi now ready, after a careful self-reassessment, to eat the humble pie and accept being the running mate again in 2027, when Atiku will be 81, with an intention to succeed him later, if he wins the poll?

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    Has the ADC made any pronouncement on zoning or rotation to either the North or South in the next general election?

    Have Atiku and Obi agreed to step down to allow another person, from the North or South, to run, with the two veteran contenders joining hands to build support for the candidate, in the spirit of national sacrifice?

    What is the joker?

    Obi has something going for him. Although he lost the 2023 poll, it was a historic outing for him. After borrowing the LP, he threw his hat in the ring a few months before the election and scored over six million votes, trailing Atiku’s over seven million votes and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s over eight million votes.

    At Enugu, capital of Enugu State and political headquarters of the Southeast, the former Anambra State governor tried to showcase the relic of his personal structure. Typical of an ethnic champion, Obi attempted to regionalise his new party, the ADC. The Enugu gathering was largely an Igbo affair, with few chieftains from other regions as spectators. But his supporters rationalised the ethnic outing, saying that charity begins at home.

    Those who attended the defection were in two categories. The first category comprised the Atiku gang of Southeast origin, the same old faces of aggrieved co-travellers and former men of power now smelling the aroma of power from afar. The second category had Obi’s followers from the LP, who had hibernated in the party with him for three years.

    Apart from few negligible federal legislators who defected along with him, those keeping Obi company are spent forces who have lost mobilisation prowess. Whether or not Obi, who ditched Atiku after the 2019 general election, could be trusted by associates of the former Vice President now in ADC would have to be ascertained.

    Obi’s speech at the defection event was unimpressive. It was a mere rambling that lacked coherence. It was devoid of substance, focus, depth and clarity. It smacked of self-glorification. His remarks showed that the charm that endeared him to many has faded.

    Expectedly, the APC government came under attack. But no alternative programme was articulated. Obi said he had read new books on Indonesia and Malaysia, and promised to implement the theories he came across in the books written by some scholars.

    His departure from LP underscored his lack of leadership ability to rebuild and put the house in order. He left behind a party in tatters, factionalised, polarised, used and dumped. That Obi could not resolve the protracted crisis soiled his profile. It queries his capacity to broker effective reconciliation at a critical moment in the party’s journey. He appears to be concerned about his personal ambition and not the collective survival of the party. It is ironic that a man who could not foster unity in a small party like the LP is promising to promote the unity of Nigeria.

    The is no alignment of ideas. Ideology has long been discarded in Nigerian politics. The motivation for the retracing of steps is interest. Whether or not a clash of interests will occur with the passage of time depends on Obi’s permutations, which drove him to the desperate coalition, which the All Progressives Congress (APC) has described as a schism of chaos.

    Obi left the LP in distress and confusion, which the Julius Abure faction attributed to his style.

    The faction, which apologised to Nigerians for giving him the 2023 ticket, said the former governor would not be missed. This may not be true because between 2023 and 2025, Obi was the main issue in the party, its leadership crisis notwithstanding.

    The details of the pact that became the driving force for Obi are unknown. Atiku has been chasing the presidency, like a shadow chaser, since the 1993 Jos convention of the Social Democratic Party (PDP). In this dispensation, the former vice president has tried his luck six more times – in 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2023 – but without success. Is the Wazirin Adamawa now fatigued or poll weary?

    The general feeling is that ADC was borrowed from the original owners for the purpose of realising Atiku’s aspiration. That is why many people believe that ADC is the Atiku Democratic Congress. Is Atiku being persuaded to step down and concede the space to Obi to fly the ticket of ADC in the next general election, while regressing into a status of a dignified onlooker or godfather?

    Obi said he decided to team up with ADC in the interest of national unity. Observers were taken aback that the politician who campaigned on ethno-religious platform in 2023 has suddenly turned around to project himself as an advocate of unity.

    He goes down in history as a politically unstable and electorally inconsistent actor, whose hallmark is desperation. From being an All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) governor, through his struggle to occupy the number two position as a PDP chieftain, to an LP presidential candidate and now an ADC stalwart, the political roaming in circles is complete.

    Obi, like Atiku, lacks the pedigree of a party builder. For a politician who miraculously got over six million votes to fail to build on that novel score and momentum speaks volumes about a deficiency in self-awareness.

    That shortfall in perception and dearth of knowledge predisposed him to seeking a rented apartment in ADC when he had the chance to erect an edifice in LP, where he ultimately drew the ire of chieftains as a deserter.

    The protracted leadership squabble in the LP was a major test he failed woefully. How would someone who cannot fix his party promise to fix Nigeria, a country of over 200 million heterogeneous people?

    But that was also among those inadequacies, apart from the lack of political patience and sound strategy that created a hollow in the career of Atiku and other politicians who inherited the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) from their leader, the late Tafidan Katsina, Major-General Shehu Yar’Adua, only to allow it to collapse irredeemably. The PDM, a formidable platform, went with the wind because the supposedly arrowheads could not properly invest in its survival. Like Obi, Atiku’s motive is just ambition, and nothing more.

    Obi is taking his ‘Obedient’ followers to the ADC. They cannot transform into core party men and women. Since he is only interested in the party’s ticket and not the party itself, the challenge of harmonisation of party structures may not arise. That may be why it is convenient for him to abandon those who actively supported him, particularly the members of the National Caretaker Committee, led by Senator Esther Nenadi-Usman, and the lone LP governor, Alex Otti of Abia State, who has refused to defect along with him.

    Where does the defection leave Abure and Nenadi-Usman? Is that the end of LP? Will the factions fight on?

    Neither is any cogent consideration accorded the interest of Obi’s 2023 running mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed, who has been his loyal envoy to both the LP and the ADC.

    But has Obi been assured of the ticket? He is not known for participating in a competitive presidential primary. He only targets a political party that will hand over the ticket to him without stress. It is noteworthy that ADC’s Publicity Secretary Bolaji Abdullahi said recently that there was no guarantee about an anointed candidate. He also said there was no discussion about how the candidate would be chosen. Judging by Atiku’s antecedents, the fate of the ADC presidential candidate would be determined at the primary.

    What is the position of ADC on zoning? If the party zones its presidential ticket to the North, would there not be an uproar in the South because the zone deserves eight years?

    If it is zoned to the South, would the North be comfortable with another eight years for the South, after President Tinubu’s first term of four years? The North is conscious of the fact that the promise of a single term is a fallacy. Would the North not show preference for another four years for President Tinubu instead of conceding eight more years?

    But how intact is Obi’s support base? The argument is that if Obi’s six million and Atiku’s seven million are combined, they will surpass President Tinubu’s eight million. That was in 2023. Are the dynamics not different today as Nigeria gazes at 2027? Introspectively, in 2019, when Atiku and Obi paired in the PDP, did they defeat the Buhari/Osinbajo ticket of the APC?

    The only implication, for now, of Obi’s defection is that the presidential election may strictly be a three-horse race with President Tinubu of APC and flagbearers of the ADC and PDP slugging it out on poll day.

  • Fubara of APC

    Fubara of APC

    In politics, there is a thin line between affection and aversion. Anything can happen within minutes. Politicians are adept players in the game of possibilities, optimism, and hope on their slippery field. They are unpredictable.

    There is no permanent friend or foe; the motivation is the interest – personal or collective – which can change suddenly or with time.

    Nothing is strange since the end justifies the means. Ideology is a fading factor, a relic, and a compass long discarded. It is within the libertarian bounds of human rights that politicians in this clime do change political parties as they change their dresses.

    Survival is key, even at the expense of morality, which fundamentally exists in a clear-cut antithetical relationship with politics.

    Defection could be based on persuasion, conviction, compulsion and even pretence, whereby the move is not backed by visceral commitment but by hypocritical compliance.

    Analysts are still dissecting the confusion that the political Babel in Rivers State has thrust on the polity to determine where Governor Siminalayi Fubara stands in the unfolding shift in political calculus.

    Until last month, the governor was a card-carrying chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). But barely two weeks as a chieftain of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), he is becoming a vociferous Tinubu-for-second-term campaigner, a disposition that aptly aligns with the wish of his predecessor and former benefactor, Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

    It was not a solo defection. Key PDP chieftains who belong to his camp and serving federal legislators also defected with him.

    Since his return to office after the emergency rule imposed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the governor, it appears, did a thorough soul-searching and critical self-assessment. He saw lightning, which generated panic. The governor drew an instant lesson, which made him dodge a likely thunder, which would have been more terrifying and devastating. Now, he says he has come in peace.

    The end of the emergency rule has not put an end to his elongated nightmare. His defection trailed the movement of 17 House of Assembly members, led by Speaker Martins Amaewhule, to the APC. It is noteworthy that 10 lawmakers chose to stay back in the PDP for reasons that are not yet clear to bystanders.

    To observers, the souls of the lawmakers had left the PDP a long time ago. They had attempted to defect during their mock exercise on the floor of the House of Assembly, which, nevertheless, paled into illegality. They only hid under the larger crisis in the PDP as an excuse to justify their latest action.

    Defending the defection, Amaewhule said: “The reason for leaving the PDP is because of the clear division in the party today. The whole world is aware that, as of today, even the national headquarters of the PDP is not functioning as a result of this division.

    “There are two factions in the PDP and the constitution is clear that when there is division in any political party, when the party is divided, members, including Assembly members who no longer have hope, can leave the party without dire consequences.

    “The foundation of this defection lies in the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria that allows members to leave the party that elected them. It becomes clear that there is a division in the PDP, and that is the reason for our joining the APC.”

    Fubara has regained his seat, but there he is still battling with the crisis of influence. Up to now, there is no certainty of amity between him and ‘Wicked Wike,’ who commands the loyalty of the legislature.

    It does not appear that the governor has also developed the confidence to forward the names of his commissioner-nominees to the aggrieved lawmakers, who may still be angling for a pound of flesh. So far, he presides over a state executive council that is “at half”.

    The dramatic and strategic defection, notwithstanding, the gulf between the Executive and the Legislature is still deep. Amaewhule has alleged that Fubara has consistently refused to cooperate with the House of Assembly and that the governor filed court cases aimed at preventing the lawmakers from defecting to the APC.

    What is indisputable is that the governor has transitioned from the previous precarious situation to a cozy relief as the state’s party leader, member of the Progressives Governors’ Forum, APC National Caucus, and ally of the President, kept under watch in the Southsouth.

    Apart from his craving for survival, Fubara has a justification for bidding the PDP farewell. The governor said he left as a mark of appreciation to the President, who saved his career by declaring an emergency rule that averted an impending impeachment move.

    The lesson of the six-month suspension is not lost on him. Fubara knew that repeating the error of the past could be costly.

    “I don’t want to make any mistakes this time around. I also wish not to step on any landmine that anyone is laying for us. So, I was with Mr. President to brief him on the situation of things in our state, which I believe he has taken note of and is going to act swiftly on it,” he said.

    The governor explained that he also considered the interest of Rivers State, which lost its peace during the Fubara/Wike rift, before taking the action.

    Also, in rationalising his decision, which irked the fast depleting PDP Governors’ Club, chaired by Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed, he explained that he jumped ship to avert future uncertainties and likely doom. He alleged that his former party failed him, despite the move by its governors to challenge his suspension from office.

    It was easy for observers to point out that, so far, in his public speeches during and after the defection and the collection of APC membership card, Fubara never mentioned the name of Wike, who still has direct influence on the lawmakers, the local government chairmen and key stalwarts of the PDP and APC in Rivers.

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    The question is: what next after Fubara’s defection? The defection, it would appear, is an element of the peace process, but total reconciliation is an unfinished business in the Southsouth state.

    The horror of the past haunts the major players. The split in the Wike camp was least expected. Gladiators from the divided house started beating the drum of war after Fubara and Wike parted ways. The governor complained about highhandedness, warning his predecessor to stop unnecessary meddlesomeness. A very combative Wike fired back, saying that Fubara had neglected the agreed path and started leaning on foes who worked against him during the governorship poll.

    The state became divided as Rivers’ elders took sides in the divisive issue. As the governor and lawmakers flexed muscles, the House of Assembly was in flames; 27 members became persona non grata and only an illegal and illegitimate three-member Assembly was recognised by the governor.

    President Tinubu saw danger looming and moved decisively to avert chaos by proposing a peace pact. The Rivers warriors returned home to dump the terms.

    Tension engulfed the state as Fubara and Wike exchanged tantrums in the media. The governor warned that the jungle was about to mature. From his base in Abuja, Wike dared his camp to foment trouble. Rallies and counter-rallies by fanatical supporters on both sides generated more anxiety. Then, there were fears that oil installations might be attacked. The President moved swiftly to restore order and avoid statewide pandemonium. The casualties of the emergency order were the Executive and the Legislature. But the people heave a sigh of relief.

    It does not speak well of Rivers State that produced Melford Okilo, Ada George, Peter Odili, Rotimi Amaechi, Wike and Fubara that 26 years after the restoration of civil rule in Nigeria, its politicians could not resolve sundry differences and a minor crisis that escalated and warranted the suspension of democratic institutions for half a year.

    The lot to fill the void and clear the mess fell on Administrator Ibot-Ekwe Ibas, who was only answerable to the federal authorities. Like the speed of lightning, the six months were over.

    Then, Rivers resumed its unfinished conflict, which underscores the inability or refusal of leaders of the rival camps to forgive and forget.

    The Rivers crisis is now the headache of the APC, whose leaders are expected to broker a truce between the governor and the minister, who is a PDP chieftain, a minister and loyalist of the President. On Asiwaju’s mandate do both of them now stand. Instructively, Wike still controls the PDP and APC structures in Rivers.

    The onus is also on the ruling party to reconcile Fubara and the lawmakers, led by Speaker Amaewhule, so that he can peacefully forward his list of commissioner-nominees for screening without hindrance. After the necessary amity, the governor is entitled to earn their loyalty and support as the titular, imagined or real state party leader.

    The third layer of peace building is the settlement of the rift or friction between the three members of the Assembly loyal to Fubara and their 27 colleagues to prevent the resumption of hostilities.

    Then, the elders of Rivers, traditional rulers and leaders of thought who took sides and inadvertently fuelled the hullabaloo, should sheathe their swords and embrace peace as partners in progress.

     Fubara has an ambition for a second term. He has come under the presidential shadow, as it were. Will he get the party’s ticket to run in 2027?

    The answer lies in the womb of time. But it depends largely on the path the gladiators tread in the months ahead. Embracing peace will light up the state for accelerated development. But renewing the rancour will attract a cloud on the state and start a deluge of uncertainties.

  • Opposition parties and fear of one-party state

    Opposition parties and fear of one-party state

    A spectral nightmare assails Nigeria’s opposition parties. They have become so befuddled by their own actions and inactions that they cannot explain where they are and where they want to go next. Their ordeal apparently arose from an inferiority complex, but they won’t admit it. They regularly conjure up the image of the polity lapsing into a one-party system. But they cannot justify their claim without indicting themselves. They depict the portrait of a ruling party that set out to ruin the opposition, but they forget that politics is like a football match. The result you get is determined by the tactics of the players and not the complaints about the rival team. The opposition parties have so far demonstrated tactlessness. They appear to prefer rancorous engagements to rational arrangements. They blame others for their immobile motions. They display an ego that emanates from the figment of hyperactive imagination; they brandish a yellow card – to the ruling party – out of sheer illusion of grandeur. Their persistent complaints have become their only weapon for blackmailing the ruling party.

    Instead of coming together to present a formidable front, opposition parties are already accusing the governing party of rigging the 2027 general election, which has not been conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

    APC is expanding its coast because it is utilising the opportunities at its disposal very well. It is building on the antecedents of the legacy parties that fused in 2014 and succeeded in managing their internal cleavages. The wisdom that permitted APC chieftains to resolve to stay and survive together is grossly lacking in their rivals.

    In a heterogeneous country like Nigeria, having a one-party state can only be a product of daydreaming. But what cannot be ruled out is the dominance of one party that has done its homework accurately under a dynamic leader. Yet, this is not final. No particular party can dominate the polity forever.

    Nigeria can only officially become a one-party state if the Constitution prescribes it. That possibility is highly remote in a highly diversified nation-state where freedom of association and assembly can never be outlawed.

    Like the party in power, the opposition parties swim in an ideological vacuum, without clear, unambiguous, coherent beliefs and guiding principles. The sole motivation is floating a vehicle that can catapult their leading lights to power. The link between ideological doctrine and corresponding governance focus is lost.

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    Since there is no unifying idea, individual opposition parties work at cross-purposes, oblivious of the fact that there is strength in unity and cohesion.

    Under the current presidential system, the 1999 Constitution (as amended) guarantees a multi-party system, which fundamentally satisfies the criteria of diversity, representation and inclusivity. The prevailing political order reflects the plural nature of Nigeria’s society and accommodates diverse ethnic, religious, and cultural groups, thereby offering platforms for varied interests.

    Currently, 18 political parties are on the register of the umpire. In September, 14 political associations that applied for registration as political parties were shortlisted for vetting.

    Five of the pre-existing 18 parties – the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP), the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) – are potentially strong. The fifth party, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), only operates in a region, the Southeast, with Anambra State as its undisputed and permanent stronghold. It should be noted that the ADC qualifies to be among the Big Five because of the Atiku Abubakar factor, although the borrowed platform is surprisingly not waxing stronger.

    In the second category are three parties – Accord (A), often used and dumped, but now adopted for next year’s governorship poll by desperate Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke; the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which is increasingly being popularised by the wealthy lawyer and businessman, Adebayo Adewole; the Young Progressive Party (YPP), which was orphaned by the exit of Senator Ifeanyi Ubah; and the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP), which is always praying for adoption by aggrieved defectors from the major parties.

    Other platforms, largely considered as mushroom parties, are the Action Alliance (AA), African Action Congress (AAC), Allied Peoples Movement (APM), Boot Party (BP), National Rescue Movement (NRM), and Peoples Redemption Party (PRP). On poll days, their presidential candidates are like spectators.

    Both the ruling and opposition parties face similar challenges in varying degrees. The only difference is their diverse responses to the problems, their leadership, the place of the crisis resolution mechanism, and how they are playing their roles as political parties.

    While the ruling party is expected to monitor the government it has midwifed to ensure that it delivers on its cardinal campaign promises and never sleeps on guard, the role of the opposition is to offer constructive criticisms and provide robust checks and balances to the ruling party and the government. So far, the role of opposition in democracy has not been effectively felt.

    Also, both the ruling and opposition parties face the constraints of internal division and external pressures. But while the ruling party, being the controller of power and resources under a strong and dynamic leadership, can easily exert influence on its members, resist external pressures, insist on party supremacy, enforce discipline and whip erring members to line, members of the opposition parties, already left in the cold outside the power calculus, are easily uncontrollable, especially when their national leaderships are disputed or when they become the source of division, destabilisation and discord.

    Individually, the scattered opposition platforms are in disarray, aptly bogged down by infighting. Their inability to put their houses in order cannot be the fault of the ruling. The intra-party crisis has led to fragmentation, particularly in the main opposition party, the PDP, the LP and the NNPP, which persistently suffer from avoidable leadership tussles, factionalisation and futile reconciliation.

    The PDP spends more time in court than on the mobilisation field. Tragedy has hit the platform, decimating the fold with the exit of the Atiku camp. Even those left behind cannot close ranks. While a section wants to keep the platform as a proper opposition party, a section is actually pushing for a deal with the ruling party.

    Leadership is a bone of contention in the PDP. Only the court can interpret the lingo of its Babel. The party is polarised; neither the Wike camp or the Turaki group can accurately predict where the pendulum will swing. That is why key chieftains, including the governors, are jumping from what has become a sinking ship.

    Defections are not peculiar to the PDP. It cut across the opposition community. In their cross-carpeting desperation, the chieftains are not learning the tactics and strategies for survival, which are the legacies of the former Opposition Leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is now the President. As a party leader, he made patriotic sacrifices, deployed resources, and served as a bridge builder, manager of crisis and symbol of the organisation.

    In those 16 years of the PDP hegemony, the party had 28 governors. As people defected from the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) to the PDP, those in the opposition went to the drawing board to strategise. By dint of hard work and courageous moves, they aborted the prolonged and planned permanent dominance of the polity by the PDP, which boasted that it would rule Nigeria for the next 60 years.

    Unlike Asiwaju Tinubu and his compatriots, today’s opposition figures tend to prioritise personal advancement, financial incentives, and the “lure of political relevance” over ideological alliance, sacrifice and commitment to broad goals of salvaging the country.

    Also, the opposition cannot stir meaningful debates on government policies and programmes because they cannot really approach voters with alternatives that can elicit public confidence. Their indulgence in personality attacks and a campaign of calumny, instead of showcasing their programmes, accounts for their low popularity rating. Although Nigeria is going through challenging times, the opposition cannot boldly say that the government of the day is not working hard to reposition the critical sectors through its bold socio-economic reforms.

    Neither is the opposition’s recourse to wiping emotions capable of yielding sufficient political capital. While the PDP and other smaller parties have accused the ruling party of deploying the anti-graft agencies to intimidate, witch-hunt and oppress their members so that they can defect, it is evident that the allegation is unfounded. This is because the suspects, irrespective of political leanings, are being investigated and prosecuted by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC).

    Opposition in Nigeria is becoming a sort of window dressing. Their tactics are becoming crude, with key figures making wild appeals to ethnicity and religion. This is injurious to the cause of nation-building and harmony. After months of planning for a coalition movement, the structure has not arrived. The PDP, LP, NNPP and ADC cannot jettison their differences, despite knowing that they cannot individually compete for presidential power with the APC and triumph.

    Can Atiku make a sacrifice, like Tinubu did when he sacrificed his vice presidential ambition in 2015? Can he step down? Also, can Peter Obi dump his presidential bid and pair with Atiku as the running mate? Can there be a compromise?

    There is no chance for a one-party system in Nigeria. But there could be a dominant party at a given time. PDP is a brand and to bounce back, its leaders should return to the drawing board to re-strategise.

     The opposition has a lot to learn from the ruling party in coordinating its vision, tactics, crisis resolution, reconciliation, and leadership.

    Planning and winning an election does not start and end with ranting. It is a long race. It requires focus. It needs resources – men, money, and materials. It is like trying to build a factory. All hands must be on deck. Any political party that intends to be a long-time player in the Nigerian political system must understand the vastness and dynamics of the system. It must then deploy the right resources through the right people to get the right results, even though the results may not come immediately.

    Today’s opposition parties need to return to the classroom and learn from the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo. The Leader of Opposition in the First and Second Republics made his parties the darlings of the people. Despite the failure of the Action Group (AG) to occupy the federal seat in the First Republic, and the near success of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) to win the 1983 election, Awo’s parties etched the opposition leader’s name in the hearts of modern history.

    The achievements of the AG in the defunct Western Region have remained unparalleled. Also, the success of the UPN in the Southwest, and later Bendel and Kwara states, during the short-lived Second Republic showed how a strong opposition party should operate.

    Between 1999 and 2003, AD was in power in the six Southwest states. The governors -Tinubu (Lagos), Lam Adesina (Oyo), Olusegun Osoba (Ogun), Bisi Akande (Osun), Adebayo Adefarati (Ondo), and Niyi Adebayo (Ekiti) – did their best. When EFCC was on the trail of their counterparts in other regions, they walked freely on the streets. Also, they never defected. They were consistent. Unfortunately, the current opposition parties are not focused on rendering services to the people. Their leaders are after what to pocket and live like emperors at the expense of the masses. This is why the federal seat is their main target.

    None of the current opposition parties can point at any programme that matches, much less surpasses, any Federal Government’s programmes. The UPN’s Four Cardinal Programmes remain unique till today. Why can’t the opposition parties adopt at least two of them in their states?   

    It is not too late for the opposition parties to redirect their steps.

    The general election is about a year away. A serious opposition party that is not out for the filthy lucre would utilise the months ahead to enunciate several programmes to uplift the people. Making noise about the ruling party will not stir the electorate to vote against a government that has done far better than all the other governments in the last 26 years. The cacophony about an imminent one-party state cannot sway the electorate. Only a performing opposition can make the voters change their minds.  

  • North’s response to security emergency

    North’s response to security emergency

    The North has slipped into its darkest period. It faces an existential threat, with no end in sight to the mortal danger. The magnitude of the crisis is proportional to its geographical vastness.

    The regional challenge is Nigeria’s problem. It has also sent the wrong signal to the international community, denting the image of Nigeria.

    Towns and villages are in panic. Schools are attacked and pupils and teachers are taken into captivity. Churches are unsafe. Palaces are invaded and monarchs also abducted. Socio-economic activities are disrupted.

    Who are these troublers of the peace?

    The man who saw tomorrow, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, introduced free education and non-discriminating scholarship scheme in the old Western Region. He warned the feudal lords and aristocrats up the River Niger that neglected children would not allow those of the powerful to have rest of mind. Was the late sage not right, after all? Has his prediction not come true?

    Awolowo envisioned a Nigeria that would become truly independent through comprehensive economic policies, free education for all, massive industrialisation, and an unbiased protection of the rights of minority groups.

    Even though it was obvious that the one who wanted to gift a cloth was himself well dressed, the “powerful” elite of the North resisted his plans. While the Western Region leapfrogged in several developmental areas, the North was all motion without movement. Its masses were mostly uneducated.

    In the region, education was like a privilege, not a right, as Awolowo advocated. It was not too surprising that some people came up in the North to declare that education is sacrilege. The proponents of such horrendous ignorance might have found allies from outside the country, foreign enemies who wanted to destroy the nation’s peace and development. Yes, they exist. A nation does not wage a war against itself without the help of external forces that cash in on the weaknesses of the people within.

    A lot of people are oblivious that many developed countries envy Nigeria so much that they are always unhappy to see it make progress. The major reason is that they fear Nigeria would become Africa’s power house that would prevent the external manipulators from getting whatever they want from the continent at the detriment of the people. There are also the economic factors. Many other countries covet Nigeria’s array of rare minerals for their own development. They find it cheaper to use mercenaries to steal the resources than tread the legal business route. The foreign manipulators have designed – and continue to design – destabilising agenda for Nigeria to always writhe in crises.

    There are also concerns about spies and collaborators within communities. There are also concerns about limited intelligence gathering. Yet, bandits still have their way in some areas, despite the fact that the communities and security agencies have prior knowledge of impending onslaughts by the agents of the devil.

    Vocal voices in the North seem to have a different perceptive about the war against banditry. Why are they pacifying bandits? Why are they calling for negotiations with terrorists? Why ask for budgetary allocations to them? What is the basis for suggesting amnesty for terror gangs?

    Those advocating amnesty for bandits argue that terrorists deserve the same gesture given to the Southsouth agitators. But the argument is weak because their struggles and styles are not the same. Niger Delta militants only focus on economic sabotage, destroying oil pipelines and other facilities. They never kidnapped for ransom. They never attacked communities, schools, churches, mosques, and soft targets. The militants were identifiable and their leaders are known. Their agitations were clear: spend part of the money made fom the oil in the region to develop it, and stop environmental degradation.

    If negotiators or intermediaries between the Boko Haram sect and the government or families of kidnapped victims are known – because they conduct negotiations with them – then, is the problem not half-solved? Why is it difficult to arrest many of the terrorists and bring them to justice since the negotiators know the hiding places of the terror gangs in the tick forests to the extent that, in the view of some top people, can withstand bombing?

    Observers, therefore, ask: is the North ready to fight and win the terror war? If the bloc geo-political zones of the Northwest, the Northeast, and the Northcentral really wanted to liberate their people from insurgency, would their leaders continue to fold their arms?

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    It is important, first and foremost, for Northern leaders, the elite, the traditional rulers, religious icons, intellectuals, the mafias of Kaduna, Kano, and Sokoto, youths, and the residents to collectively resolve to say NO to the current nonsense.

    Regional response to the security emergency is critical to halting insurgency, which has become financially profitable to the perpetrators. It is evident that the North is waging a war against itself because there is no evidence that the terrorists are from the southern part of the country.

    Violent extremism in the North is not new. Zango Kataf riots and Maitasine uprising left in their wake unimaginable death tolls that called to question the value placed on the human life and peaceful co-existence.

    Insurgency has been variously linked with poverty, unemployment, squalor, and neglect. Those who hold this view draw attention to the fact that kinetic operations without the human approach are grossly insufficient for resolving the complex issues.

    While there could be some truths in these attributions, they also raise some questions. Who has marginalised or neglected the North that had dominated the national leadership for the greater part of 65 years of Nigeria’s nationhood?

    Also, judging by the sophisticated weapons in the hands of these “poor and jobless” terrorists and how the abductees are kept for days and sustained, sometimes by food items, medical aids and even midwives in some areas, it would be realised that sponsors of terror gangs are wealthy people.

    In the North, Islamisation should not be a clear danger to the vast and diverse communities, if there is a consciousness that the religious rights of those who choose to differ should be upheld with great understanding. This would be a factor in the creation of an atmosphere of mutual tolerance and peaceful coexistence.

    But religion seems to be out of place in some instances as the tools of insurgency in the ravaged areas are not associated with religious discrimination. This is because Muslims, Christians, and even pagans are targets.

    Governors can play their role in creatively securing their states by deploying resources, which have now increased due to the huge sum accruing to the states from the Federation Account.

    Today, the Southwest regional outfit, Amotekun, is the legacy of the late Rotimi Akeredolu (SAN), former governor of Ondo State, who mobilised his colleagues in the region to beef up security in Yoruba land.

    In Oyo State, Governor Seyi Makinde has managed to solve the farmer-herder crisis. The porous boundaries are an issue which he has also been tackling through the proper deployment of security agencies. Also, former Ekiti State Governor Ayodele Fayose mobilised to ward off the threats.

    It took northern governors a while to collectively respond to the security threats in their region, despite the fact that more northerners are the victims of horror. But it was not until their Southwest counterparts rose to the occasion that they woke up from their slumber. Southern governors are taking pre-emptive measures; Northern governors are searching for a cure.

    Acknowledging that the region is facing a critical hazard and risk, the northern governors realised that the escape route is thin. Unlike some northern icons trying to bully the Federal Government and attack President Bola Ahmed Tinubu over the rising violence, the Southwest governors embraced the reality that the anti-terror war is a collective responsibility that must involve the Federal Government, sub-national units, security agencies, and community resources.

    The governors of the North have called for the suspension of mining in the North. Why? The mining activities are clearly illegal. It is not peculiar to Nigeria. Indeed, there appears to be a relationship between unauthorised mining and terrorist financing, which can only be ignored at national peril.

    President Tinubu had once observed that the resources from illegal mining were being hijacked by terrorist groups in exchange for foreign cash, which was used to buy arms and ammunition. Thus, apart from kidnapping fellow bengs, huge resources are also kidnapped or captured, and billions of dollars that governments should use to fund education, health care, and other social services are exploited by terrorists to buy weapons and perpetuate violence against the people.

    Whistleblowers of northern origin should come to the rescue. They owe the region a candid duty of intelligence gathering in assisting security agencies to arrest and prosecute the public enemies.

    Northern states should brace up for state police. It is critical to security at the state and local government levels.

    How would it be funded? The governors should anticipate an imminent legislative amendment that will pave the way for the multi-layer policing structure. Governors now give more money to do that. It should be borne in mind that state police would be corrupt if it is not well funded, like the current national policing structure.

    Training is key. It takes time to wean the proposed state police for the purpose of filling the security void at the state level.

    How could this be done to meet the requirements of the security emergency?

    Northern elite must stand before the mirror and do an honest self-assessment. What do they want the region to look like in the next five to 10 years, judging by all that has happened in the last 10 years? Will life be better or get worse? Will there be pervasive peace or increased instability? A stitch in time saves nine.

    While many northerners have been running away from their homes to other places considered safer, the criminals who terrorise the region multiply. The known allies of the terrorists, some of whom have been named and shamed outside Nigeria behave like untouchables. Many of them pretend to be religious leaders, but the insignia on their character clearly spells Satanism. The North must urgently embrace developmental religion and fight destructive practices. The latter has never given the region a good name. Across the world, nations with majority Muslims have low rates of corruption and poverty. The North should ask why the situation is different across the region. It is time to make amends. Actions speak louder than words.

  • Battle for Osun

    Battle for Osun

    Attention is shifting to Osun State, where political parties are expected to conduct governorship primaries next month to produce their candidates for next year’s poll.

    Four parties are effectively in the race to produce the governor: the highly polarised and decimated Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the All Progressives Congress (APC), where no fewer than eight aspirants are battling to get the ticket, the uproarious African Democratic Congress (ADC) that is tearing itself down with intra-party conflicts, and the Accord (A), which the “partyless” governor may adopt as an emergency platform.

    In Osun, the PDP has lost power without an election or a coup. Governor Ademola Adeleke stepped aside from the party, which his supporters described as a sinking ship. He is said to be on his way to the Accord, as previously speculated. It is a way of rescuing himself from the disaster the PDP brought on itself.

    The main opposition party is facing a worsening crisis. Its national leadership is gasping for breath to swim out of the ocean of disputes within. The party’s top hierarchy is a subject of litigation in the court. This is the fallout of the acrimonious presidential convention of 2022, which threw up Atiku Abubakar as the presidential candidate for the 2023 poll.

    Since then, the  party’s centre has been falling apart, and nothing appears potent enough to fasten it up. It is being decimated daily by the gale of high-profile defections. The party, which occupied Aso Villa for 16 years, is experiencing an accelerated diminishing returns never envisaged by its founding fathers.

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    The majority of PDP members are with Ede-born Governor Adeleke in his search for a new platform. That he is seeking refuge in a borrowed platform is discomforting and demoralising. Despite the turn of events, the PDP remains a brand. It needs no introduction, even if its structures are now distressed. Adeleke is not a seasoned politician, like his illustrious brother, “Serubawon” Isiaka Adeleke, although he has achieved the double accomplishments of becoming a senator and governor, like the deceased. But Ademola never imagined being entrusted with the huge political responsibilities, which his limited education and exposure never prepared him for. He danced his way into the National Assembly and the Bola Ige House in Osogbo, the seat of Osun State government, to the envy of seasoned actors who could not make it to those levels.

    Now, Adeleke faces a novel test of leadership, a brewing challenge he never anticipated. This is the challenge of nurturing any mushroom party he may adopt into prominence and wider acceptability.

    His exit from the PDP underscores his battle for survival. He faces a major election next year and the hurdles are real, although he wields an incumbency power. But he was not influential enough to wield that power of incumbency to prevail on three Osun PDP senators from defecting to the APC months ago. How formidable is also the incumbency factor that made “Ade Dancer” to apply to the APC for defection?

    Since his request to join APC was turned down, much ego has been deflated, and subsequent partisan moves were laced with tension. Neither could the governor rescind his decision to campaign for the APC ahead of the 2027 presidential poll nor withdraw his statement of support for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid.

    Yet, it was dangerous to stay on in PDP, now polarised into two factions that are preparing for renewed legal fireworks in court next week.

    Adeleke does not openly belong to either of the factions. Also, he lacks the capacity to broker reconciliation. He never participated in the Adamasingba picnics. He is also not seen around the man the late Ondo State Governor Rotimi Akeredolu called ‘wicked Wike’, the acclaimed PDP albatross.

    No doubt, Adeleke’s exit from the PDP has created a vacuum, and nature abhors a vacuum. Thus, during the week, Adedamola Adedayo, a lowly party chieftain, became the governorship candidate of the former ruling party that instantly became a toothless bulldog. It means that not all the chieftains subscribe to Adeleke’s defection project.

    The PDP flagbearer is said to be enjoying the backing of Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde, although he is largely perceived as a placeholder. Many Osun PDP stalwarts who objected to Makinde’s overtures in Osun State accuse him of nursing a territorial expansionist agenda. Predictably, the flagbearer would merely appear as a venerable spectator on poll day. No other PDP governor would like to invest in his candidature.

    Adeleke will fly the ticket of any party he finally adopts. Nobody really bothers about his scorecard. He looks formidable, not for his dancing steps but because of the circumstances that brought him to power.

    Zoning is key in the State of Living Springs; this is why the parties are looking in the direction of Osun West.

    The zone, particularly Ede, is the stronghold of the governor. Its population is huge. Besides Adeleke’s incumbency power, he has a deep purse, courtesy of his wealthy family, which is ready to again bankroll the second term project. When the campaign train rolls into town, even his nephew, eminent musician David (Davido) Adeleke, may be a major anchor.

    But the governor can be stopped if the APC assembles a formidable team. This time calls for unity and sacrifice, as demonstrated by the Marine and Blue Economy Minister Gboyega Oyetola, who declined the urge to throw his hat into the ring.

    APC aspirants include Kunle Adegoke, a legal luminary; Senator Ajibola Basiru, Doctor of Law and promising National Secretary of the party; Senator Iyioola Omisore, a former deputy governor and rugged predecessor of Basiru at the national office; Benefict Alabi, the immediate past deputy governor; Senator Babajide Omoworare, a former presidential aide; Senator Mudashiru Hussein; Dotun Babayemi, a popular lawyer and defector from the PDP, and Bola Oyebamiji, a financial expert and former finance commissioner, who is likely to get the ticket if the permutations are right.

    But the Osun APC is not cohesive. Besides, the elders, called ‘Agba Osun,’ who traditionally are disposed to consensus, have not been able to persuade some of these aspirants to make sacrifices by stepping down. They may not be able to wield the big stick, where necessary, or apply persuasion, when this psychological tool would be most effective.

    Next week, the APC national leadership, after linking up with the state chapter, would unfold the mode of primary, either consensus, direct, or indirect.

    What should be avoided is a post-primary crisis. The only way to avoid danger and damage is to conduct a substantially free and fair shadow poll.

    If the primary is not credible, one or two contenders may defect to either the Social Democratic Party (SDP) or Labour Party (LP).

    In Osun, ADC of Rauf Aregbesola is roaring like a lion, but there is no prey to devour. The former governor and minister is intensifying mobilization. Crowds at rallies are uncritically confused with huge popularity and perceived as an expansion of the coast.

    Cracks have appeared on the wall, which are not easy to mend. The loyal deputy leader of the ‘Omoluabi Progressives,’ Alhaji Moshood Adeoti of Iwo, twice dumped by the leader, left the group in anger this week. His grouse is that the caucus may not endorse his governorship ambition. His next line of action is unknown.

    Adeoti, an experienced grassroots actor, suffered bruises as Alliance for Democracy (AD)/Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) state chairman. He saw the handwriting on the wall but could not decipher it. He may not be as soft as Dr. Najeem Salam, a former Speaker from Ejigbo, if power lands on his palm.

    If the calculations of the political parties do not change, then eyes are on Adeleke of Accord, or any party he may adopt; Oyebamiji of APC and Salam of ADC to weather the storms of the primaries. Even then, only one man will become the governor next year.