June 3, 2022 is the deadline for submission of candidates’ lists for election by political parties.
The implication is that the parties have about seven weeks to comply with the directive of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
How the presidential flagbearers will emerge, particularly in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is a big challenge to main opposition party.
The choice of the standard bearer is a test of the ability of the party to manage crises and handle the resultant conflict of interests. This is because the ticket is perhaps, the most prized laurel any member can win. That is why, in most cases, valuable, influential, and experienced members have thrown their hats into the ring.
In the past weeks, PDP leaders have been at crossroads. The puzzle is the modality for choosing a candidate who will earn the support of his co-contestants and be in a vantage position to win next year’s election.
Three aspirants-former Senate President Abubakar Bukola Saraki, Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal and his Bauchi counterpart, Senator Bala Mohammed-have proposed to the party the imperative of consensus candidacy. The suggestion has elicited mixed reactions. While many stalwarts have applauded it, others have decried the proposal.
The team first met in Bauchi on March 20, 2022, and announced that its members were working together to put forward one person for the ticket, instead of a rancorous elective primary. Since then, they have admitted another aspirant, Mohammed Hayatoudeen, former Managing Director of African International Bank, into the crusade.
Since the initiative started gaining prominence in the media, party members have been commending Saraki, Tambuwal, Mohammed, and Hayatoudeen for trying to guide the party to prune down the number of aspirants, a situation that makes their ambitions to become the first sacrificial lambs. Hailing them for their patriotism, Hashim Kareem, a party member from Kano, described them as statesmen and peacemakers.
“The aspirants know that by initiating this consensus move, three of them will lose out as only one person will be nominated to contest in the primary proper. Yet, they went on to make public pronouncements on their efforts, thereby, foreclosing the option for any of them to back out. These men have done well and they should be treated as heroes of the PDP and today’s democracy in Nigeria”, Kareem said.
Another chieftain from Abia State, Okey Elenwo, noted that the subscribers to the consensus arrangement have demonstrated their transparency and commitment by going public with their plans from the beginning and leaving no room for escape or maneuver.
He said: “Initially, I did not believe the four men were serious about their plan. To think that they mean business gives me the impression that they are making a big sacrifice, particularly since the initiative is a voluntary move and nobody is being compelled to join.
“Also, the idea was neither imposed by the party nor directed by any incumbent President, or other external or internal force. The initiators deserve kudos”.
A Lagos chieftain, Adekunle Oluwole, said what Saraki, Tambuwal, Mohammed, and Hayatoudeen have started may become the trend that will determine the shape of the 2023 elections. He added that although the idea originated from the PDP, it may influence subsequent decisions in other parties.
A chieftain from Bayelsa, Peremebao Ohiwe, said consensus will reduce acrimony, if properly articulated and managed. He stressed: “This consensus arrangement will reduce tension in the PDP. It will make the presidential primaries to be better managed. The fall-out will also be easy to handle. If the aspirants are already holding discussions with each other, then they are already creating grounds for mutual understanding and support for each other. So, whoever emerges will find it easy to rally the others and everybody will be a winner.”
Many chieftains believe the consensus option, which will reduce the number of aspirants, create a good relationship among them and prepare the grounds for team work, is what the opposition party needs to effectively challenge the ruling party.
Also, in the absence of consensus, a situation where 15 aspirants within PDP are struggling for a ticket will escalate division and pave the way for power retention by the ruling party.
Instructively, in 2015, when the APC was the leading opposition party, it managed to reduce its presidential aspirants to five. The five were President Muhammadu Buhari, Abubakar Atiku, Rabiu Kwakwanso, Rochas Okorocha, and the late Sam Nda Isaiah. Other likely aspirants jettisoned their ambitions and supported Buhari to defeat the then ruling PDP.
Some party leaders acknowledge that the current move by the consensus architects is also a smart move to ensure a cohesive, united, and strong party that can easily defeat the APC, which is being critised by some Nigerians for a shortfall in performance in the areas of security, economy and the fight against corruption.
The consensus curators have rigorously continued to take their message for unity and sacrifice to key stakeholders. They have visited the other 11 PDP governors to explain their mission to them. To ensure that their initiative is not seen as a gang-up against any other aspirant, they have equally visited Atiku, a presidential aspirant, who is not part of the move. They have visited aspirants from the other zones, including Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike and Governor Emmanuel Udom of Akwa Ibom.
A source disclosed that the consensus team is planning to hold a joint meeting next week with other aspirants from other parts of the country who are not opposed to the idea so that they can agree on modalities for further reducing the number of aspirants in the interest of the party.
Saraki, who is the spokesman of the consensus advocates, emphasised that the four of them in the group are qualified to provide effective leadership and good governance for the nation. He said: “The national interest and cohesion within the party are more important than individual ambition”. He added that what he and his colleagues have started is worthy of emulation as consensus building is required at a critical time for the country.
“The efforts of this group of politicians are novel, noble, and worthy of emulation”, noted a political science teacher, Hassan Lado. He added: “They should be encouraged to pull it through. The consensus plan should not be abandoned mid-way. The PDP leadership should openly come out to identify with the idea, praise it and encourage all members and stakeholders to back support it.
“We should encourage the subscribers to the idea to ensure it has a successful outcome. If it is just because of their selflessness and broad-mindedness, Saraki, Tambuwal, Mohammed, and Hayatoudeen deserve the votes of delegates and other Nigerians, that is, whoever emerges among them as the candidate of the PDP.
Okey Nwaeke, an Enugu-based lawyer, noted that consensus supported by law. He added that the new Electoral Act recognises it as one of the modes for selection of candidates. He added that credit should be given to politicians who are exploring the legal and lawful option as it demonstrates their commitment to peace, unity, collaboration, and cooperation.
An important element of consensus is mutual agreement without a dissenting voice among the contestants. If an aspirant disagrees with the process, consensus will translate into imposition, exclusion, tyranny, dictatorship, and violation of internal democracy. If the aspirant goes to court, the consensus may be null and void. It means PDP will fall back to an elective convention in pain. Therefore, Nwaeke advised the advocates of consensus to use persuasion to sell the idea.
He added: “For as long as it is voluntary, not being forced on anybody and the initiators continue to be firm on the fundamental reasons for starting it, they will continue to be heroes of this political period and history as well as posterity will remember them for good cause”.
PDP governors adopted the consensus approach in the election of the members of the National Working Committee (NWC) last year during its national convention. The option threw up Dr. Iyorchia Ayu as national chairman. The APC also adopted the approach recently when it elected the Abdullahi Adamu-led NWC.
There is a signal that consensus game is also been silently canvassed in the ruling party. It may be dead on arrival in APC because of the subsisting agreement on power rotation between its Northern and Southern caucuses as far back as 2014. Many APC chieftains know that it will be counter-productive to renege on the pact at this stage.
Atiku’s position of consensus is a hurdle the PDP has not crossed. The experienced politician, despite his networks and financial war chest, has not been able to penetrate the ranks of the divided PDP Governors’ Forum. Many PDP governors do not want him as flagbearer. Therefore, he has not bought into the consensus idea because there is no assurance yet that he will be the ultimate beneficiary.
Since there is gab between him and the younger turks, Atiku is turning to the equally divided party elders in the fold who understand the language of the old order. He is also courting party leaders in non-PDP states, who have been left in the cold, following the defeat of their chapters during the 2019 elections.
But, the governors continue to remember how they worked for the former vice president to emerge as flagbearer only to refuse to consult them before picking former Governor Peter Obi, a new defector, as running mate.
Critics have pointed out the evil of imposition decked in the garment of consensus.
The PDP Consensus Committee, led by Benue State Governor Samuel Orton, never reached consensus on the much advertised option. The NWC and NEC of the party has not also come up with a final directive.
The consensus debate has opened a new chapter in the friction between the North and the South. The South is aggrieved by the insinuation that only a Northern PDP candidate can defeat the APC candidate in next year’s election.
Also, Southern PDP leaders are being threatened at home by ethnic associations and stakeholders who are demanding for power shift as President Buhari’s tenure expires next year.
Indeed, Southern governors are being reminded of their involvement in the resolution of the Southern APC and PDP governors on power shift, rotation and zoning to the South.
The perception in PDP is that the numerical strength of Northern PDP delegates is being flaunted to intimidate has Southern candidates who may not achieve a breakthrough at the convention where, apart from the wheeling and dealing, politics may also be shaped by the factors of ethnicity and religion, with its implications for mistrust and confidence building.
Former PDP Deputy National Chairman (South), Chief Bode George, has even warned the party against throwing open its presidential ticket to aspirants from the six zones.
Like many Southern leaders, there is fear that if PDP produces another Northerner as president in 2023, the likelihood exists that the North will be in power for 16 years.
George said the party cannot afford to jettison zoning, which he described as the pillar of the PDP and the legacy of its founding fathers.
Therefore, he said the opposition party should make a definitive statement on zoning of the ticket to the South.
The PDP chieftain maintained that zoning is in line with the constitution of the party. He said a section of the country cannot be ruling perpetually while other sections remain as onlookers.
George added: “That is why it is rotated in such a way that whatever has been in the North after eight years must come to the South; whatever has been in the South for the last eight years must go to the North.
“It guarantees commitment, it guarantees oneness, it guarantees that you have a sense of belonging to this country called Nigeria.”
George, a member of the PDP Board of Trustees (BoT) and Zoning Committee, added: “They must come out categorically to say it. I am saying this for posterity’s sake. Zoning is the political spinal cord of the party. It is like that of human beings. If something affects it, you are done for life.”
Also, Wike has intensified his consultation and mobilisation, rejecting the notion that a Southern candidate is unsuitable because of the prevailing circumstances.
The bone of contention is the ultimate beneficiary of consensus. Will he be the ultimate unifying factor?
There are other puzzles: can the governors agree on a candidate from their ranks?
Can the consensus candidate also come from the South, following a rethink?
Can it be Saraki, who is the critical link, reconciliator and bridge builder?
Will Atiku succeed in persuading the forces against him?
Will the push for consensus succeed?
Time will tell.