The growing agitation in Southern Nigeria for power shift to the region may have caught up with the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP). On the other hand, prominent chieftains of northern extraction have insisted that the ticket should be thrown open, to allow aspirants from the region to contest alongside their southern counterparts. GBADE OGUNWALE writes on the intricacies of zoning and how it may make or mar the PDP’s chances in next year’s presidential election
The opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) is not in a hurry to announce the zone that would produce its presidential flag bearer in next year’s general election. The party appears to be up to some mind games over the zoning of its ticket for the election. It is obviously watching developments within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The ambition to return to power at the federal level is driving the thinking within the party. But, at the same time, governors elected on the party’s platform, who are mostly from the South, want to dictate the pace of developments in the party.
All seemed well with the PDP, following its rancour-free national convention last October, where a new set of National Working Committee (NWC) members were elected by consensus. Convention over, the scheming for the party’s presidential ticket ahead of next year’s general election have pitted party stakeholders and vested interests in the North against their southern counterparts. The northern elements are hinging their argument on the fact that the South had occupied the presidency for 13 years under previous PDP administrations, while the North has had it for only three years. They referenced the eight years of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo from 1999 to 2007 and Dr. Goodluck Jonathan’s five years from 2010 to 2015. On the other hand, the North, they argue, had only three years under the late Umaru Yar’Adua who got elected in 2007 but died in 2010 before he could complete his first four-year tenure.
Some northern groups insist that the PDP presidential ticket was zoned to the North for eight years, from 2019 to 2023 and that the region is still be entitled to the ticket in 2023. Others say the party should jettison zoning for “merit and competence”. This is premised on the fact that aspirants from the North will always have an edge in the game of numbers during the presidential primary. The battle for the ticket by northern aspirants is being fought mainly through pressure groups. One of such groups, the Justice and Equity Group (JEG) is seeking the zoning of the ticket to the North. The group, which consist mainly of former and serving members of the House of Representatives, said it is in the interest of justice and fairness for the North to get the ticket.
At a recent media briefing in Abuja, the group said in the alternative, the race should be thrown open to all comers. In an address read by one Ahmed Mukhtar, the JEG said: “The best candidate who can win the presidential election for the PDP” should be allowed to emerge from any zone. Pushing its argument further, Mukhtar said: “We think that in the greater interest of the PDP, we should abide by the earlier National Executive Committee (NEC) decision that threw open the presidential ticket to all zones.”
But, their counterparts in the South have countered that the North has dominated the nation’s leadership for close to 40 years under military and civilian dispensations since the country’s independence in 1960. They said President Muhammadu Buhari, who was elected in 2015, would be serving out two tenures of eight years in 2023. As far as they are concerned, it makes very little difference that Buhari, who is from Katsina State, Northwest geo-political zone, got elected on the platform of the APC. They said the electorate is looking forward to voting in a Nigerian president in 2023 and not a PDP president. They insist that fielding another northerner in 2023 will not resonate with southern voters, regardless of the party platform.
But, in a recent interview, the PDP Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Abdullahi Ibrahim said the party was still consulting on its zoning arrangement. Ibrahim said: “People are in a haste to see us declare our position on zoning. There are processes of consultations and engagements, which are still ongoing. We just have in place an NWC which is barely two months in office. What it is doing now is to aggregate all the contending forces and interests and all the divergent views and come up with an informed decision as to where the presidency will be zoned accordingly.”
The PDP chieftain said zoning is meant to strengthen unity and mutual cohesion because the country is heterogeneous in nature hence the need to allocate responsibilities accordingly. He added: “It is only the PDP that has realised the need to zone these offices and rotate them accordingly, so that every interest, every region and every contending force within the country will have a sense of belonging.”
On zoning, Ibrahim said: “It is on the table and it is a factor that is being taken very seriously. We are beginning to look at all of these interests and the clamour to see how we will make an informed decision in the fullness of time. It is not something we will want to do unilaterally. We will take national interest and divergent views of Nigerians in coming up with a decision. That is why we are not rushing things.”
The party chieftain said the leadership is yet to take a decision on the report of a committee chaired by Bauchi State’s Governor Bala Mohammed, which recommended the scrapping of zoning. The initial body language of the PDP leadership suggested that the party would likely zone the ticket to the North. This must have informed the number of aspirants from the North jostling for the ticket.
On the list is former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; a former Senate President, Bukola Saraki; Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal; his Bauchi State counterpart, Bala Mohammed; with former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso treading the borderline. However, the permutations changed with the entry of southerners like former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Anyim Pius Anyim; an industrialist, Mazi Sam Ohuabunwa; and Ovation publisher, Chief Dele Momodu.
Perhaps, what appeared to have taken the steam off the northern aspirants’ aspiration was the recent outburst by the Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike. At a recent political event in Rivers State, the governor had declared that the South would soon take a position and make a declarative statement on the next presidential election that would shock the country. Wike said: “The day the South will speak, Nigeria will shake. We believe in the unity of this country, but nobody can threaten us. Nobody should threaten us. We believe in the unity of Nigeria and the unity of Nigeria must continue.”
The River State governor said the PDP will not give its presidential ticket to a candidate that would serve only the interest of the wealthy few. Without mentioning names, the governor said some desperate politicians who would not serve the interest of Nigerians were already scheming for the party’s ticket. He added: “No amount of gang-up can make the PDP give its ticket to somebody who will want to run an election for the interest of some big men, and not for all Nigerians. Anybody who wants to be a candidate of the PDP must be a candidate for the interest of Nigerians.”
Reacting to Wike’s outburst, the chairman of the party’s Board of Trustees (BoT), Senator Walid Jibrin said the governor’s stance was in line with the position of the 17 southern governors who have insisted that the presidency must move to the South in 2023. In a recent interview with The Nation, Jibrin said there was nothing wrong with the position taken by the Rivers governor. Jibrin said: “People should not forget that he (Wike) was a signatory to the position of the Southern Governors Forum that demanded that the presidency should move to the South in 2023. Also, note that the Southern Governors Forum cuts across party lines because the governors that took that position are of the PDP and the ruling APC. So, it’s a collective decision.”
Continuing, the BoT chair said: “Why should anyone expect Wike to go against a collective decision of his fellow southern governors? The views and comments made by Governor Wike should not constitute problems for the PDP in any way. Every PDP member has a right to their views. It’s not only Wike that has spoken about the 2023 ticket. Sule Lamido, Bala Mohammed, Tambuwal, Atiku and a few others too, have aired their views on the matter. PDP allows for freedom of expression. That is what makes us different from the APC.”
Jibrin added that nobody should feel disturbed by the divergent views being expressed by PDP chieftains over the 2023 ticket. He encouraged other party chieftains to freely express their opinions on the party’s presidential ticket and also urged others who might be interested in the ticket to join the race. Jibrin assured that the leadership of the PDP would not take sides with any of the aspirants, saying that the leadership will sort things out at the appropriate time.
Outside the PDP, the various socio-political groups, including the Afenifere, the Ohanaeze Ndigbo, the Pan Niger Delta Forum and the Middle Belt Forum have also been consistent in their demand for power shift to the South. The groups have continued to maintain that any political party that fields a northern presidential candidate would not enjoy the support of voters in the South. There are indications that more presidential aspirants from the South may join the race in the days ahead.
Apparently following Wike’s outburst, stakeholders in the Southeast have started drumming support for the Enugu State Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi. The governor is being projected by scores of political leaders in the zone who, described him as “the best man for the job”. Leading consultations in the push for Ugwuanyi is a former governor and serving senator representing the Enugu East district, Chimaraoke Nnamani. The lawmaker said traditional rulers, the clergy, workers union, the business community and the political class in the zone have come to identify with what he described as Ugwuanyi’s uncommon leadership qualities.
The hardline position taken by the Rivers State governor may have sent a strong signal to would-be aspirants in the North. A few days after Wike’s harsh comments, the Sokoto State governor came out to clarify his position on his alleged quest for the party’s ticket. Speaking through his Media Adviser, Mohammed Bello, Tambuwal said contrary to media reports, he has not declared interest in the PDP ticket. Bello, who spoke with The Nation on the telephone, said rather the governor was still making consultations with stakeholders on the matter. The aide said it is the outcome of the various consultations that would determine whether Tambuwal would contest or not. Bello said it would be premature for anybody to say that the governor had declared his interest at this point.
He added: “Governor Tambuwal is only consulting with stakeholders. He started from Sokoto and he had been to Jigawa where he met with former governor Sule Lamido. The process is still ongoing. It is the outcome of these consultations that will determine the next steps to take. At the end of the day, if he discovers that it is not practicable, he will drop the ambition. So, it would be premature for anybody to say that Governor Tambuwal has declared.”
Asked to react to Wike’s comments, the governor’s aide said the two governors are very good friends who still enjoy a good rapport. “So, people should not read meanings into what the Rivers governor said because Governor Tambuwal will not join issues with anybody on this matter,” Bello said.
The discordant tunes from the various zones may present the PDP with difficult choices ahead of the party’s presidential primary coming up in the weeks ahead. As it were, the 13-member PDP Governors Forum has a firm grip on the Iyorchia Ayu-led national leadership. The decision as to where the party zones its ticket will ultimately be determined by the body of governors. Incidentally, eight of the 13 PDP governors who subscribed to the position of the Southern Governors Forum for power shift to the South, are from the South.
They are Wike (Rivers); l Ugwuanyi (Enugu); Godwin Obaseki (Edo); Seyi Makinde (Oyo); Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia); Udom Emmanuel (Akwa Ibom); Duoye Diri (Bayelsa); and Ifeanyi Okowa (Delta). The other five from the North are Tambuwal (Sokoto); Mohammed (Bauchi); Darius Ishaku (Taraba); Umaru Fintiri (Adamawa); and Samuel Ortom (Benue).
Of the five northern governors, Ortom has thrown his weight behind the agitation for power shift to the South. However, it is too early to tell if the PDP will bow to the deafening agitation for power shift to the South, or choose to swim against the tide. In the meantime, consultations are still ongoing.