Ezekiel O. Kayode

SIR: Coronavirus is eating deep into our lives —our health and wealth.

Let me be the soothsayer who sees painful darkness at the end of this tunnel. You see, for a state of Nigeria’s capacity, it’s not enough to just mitigate the virus, because what comes next is equally bad, if not worse: a receding economy and the many dire consequences.

It is not only a questioning of Nigeria’s readiness for the virus, but if Nigeria can arrest the ripple effects. And if they can, how soon? But who is asking these questions?

Mele Kyari, the Group Managing Director of NNPC, had to warn of “tough times for the next three months” when the global oil price for a barrel fell to $37.

CNN’s Fareed Zakaria would have this to say: “Even if the quarrel between Saudi Arabia and Russia gets resolved, at this point, demand for oil has collapsed and will not soon recover.”

President Buhari recognises this. Hence, the Economic Sustainability Committee. The country cannot afford a prolonged lockdown beyond the end of April.

Does the federal government then reopen the economy? When should it? These depend solely on how quickly we beat the virus. The economy cannot reopen until it is certain that those going to work are free of the virus.

Should the government risk it and lift some restrictions, the health status of the nation may suffer for it. Should they not, inflation and worsening living standard will tout the present administration’s economic “strides” as spurious —another unfavourable option for a government already growing unpopular among the people.

If something is not done sooner, our economy will recede to a point where stability becomes a forecast of two to three years. I can’t bear to imagine the standard of living in that time.

Consider the variables: We have little or no capital to help the diversification cause on our many arable lands. We depend heavily on importation and rely heavily on crude oil as main source of government revenue.

At this point, the economy will only survive based on what the government puts back into the system. We have eaten more than we can chew. In fact, very deep into our cash reserves. Little surprise that the federal government is banking on a fresh $3.4bn loan request to save what is left of Nigeria’s surviving economy —as usual.

In the United States, SMEs represent about 50% of the GDP. When 10 million Americans initially filed unemployment cases in the opening weeks of the lockdown, President Trump had to avail tax reliefs and a $50bn relief fund to help keep SMEs alive.

Read Also: COVID-19 and the economy

The situation in Nigeria is worse than the statistics we’re getting. Maybe companies are already laying off their staff. Maybe we will have to wait till it becomes a red flag. It’s a question of when, not if it will happen because we know it will.

This government may have created more than “seven million jobs”, but nationwide outcry suggest that far more may have been destroyed. How then can existing SMEs trust the government to do right by them and help keep their businesses alive? This begs the question: What is the logic in holding unto workers when you can’t pay salaries?

If there are no salaries, how do people feed? Businesses are also hoarding goods and services for when the prices rise. The problem is then not only a scarcity of resources, but the people’s inability to cope with all the variables.

The Nigerian health sector is not fully equipped for any possible escalation. To fight the virus, the government will need to invest heavily

There are reasons to believe that it will take a while for the virus to peak in Nigeria. And many of the active cases will need a ventilator for when their symptoms worsen.

Presently, this is a more pressing concern —coronavirus is eating deep into our health. We need to beat this enemy. But we also have to protect our wealth. We can’t afford to put all our eggs in one basket, and that is if we intend to come out of this pandemic less shattered than expected.

• Ezekiel O. Kayode, FUTA, Akure.