Nigeria is a good example to illustrate the well known statement that oil is a curse . It may sound contradictory given that oil is wealth and a good one , for any nation . But look around you and you see that oil has been more of a curse than a blessing to our great nation . There is fuel shortage right now and the price of diesel and gasoline has risen sharply but Nigerians are used to it and would buy petrol at any price as long as it is available so that they can go about their lives and eke out a living . Nigeria has been labelled a mono product economy not because it has no other mineral resources but oil is the dominant revenue generator and our president is our Minister of Oil .That is how far we shall go on Nigeria for now on this matter .
In the world at large , oil has become a weapon of war in the invasion of Ukraine by Russia and Europe which gets 30 percent of its oil as well as 40 per cent of its gas from Russia , is feeling the heat , not necessarily because there is a furnace but because Europe and the US have stopped buying Russian oil . Funny enough the US and Saudi Arabia are the first and second biggest suppliers of oil in the world and Russia is the third . The dilemma for both the US and Europe is that they are trying to phase out oil because it pollutes the environment and are looking fervently for an alternative to power their heavily oil dependent economies and industries, but oil is still king in powering their economies and societies . But war has no respect for climate or green energy and has shown its ugly face in winter in Europe in a war which no one expected and which has thrown Europe into chaos , with thousands of refugees fleeing Ukraine to Poland and other friendly neighboring nations , which have welcomed them with open hands while banning the buying of Russian oil which Europe needs , so badly , in the prosecution of this war in which Russia has invaded Ukraine so cheekily and with such impunity and violence.
It is important to know that many of the governments in the EU, 27- member nations got elected in recent times on a campaign for climate change and they won power on an ideology of climate change . This war is now making them to cut their noses to spite their faces . In the present French presidential campaign and election due soon , presidential candidate and present President Emanuel Macron has promised to make France the first EU nation to be fossil fuel free with the total use of green energy to save the environment . Germany ‘s new successor government to Angela Merkel’s long leadership of Germany is made up of a strong coalition of climate adorers and activists . Even the US which is looking for oil after banning the purchase of Russian oil has a Biden Administration that campaigned and won the 2020 presidential election on a pledge to phase out fossil fuel which is oil .. Now the EU and the US are counting , if not ruing , the cost of their long term view of saving the universe in the face of the bloody , oil relevant and needy war , that oil rich Russia has unleashed on Europe with the most unexpected invasion of Ukraine .
Let me now analyse the many dilemmas facing the actors and participants in this war that I have decided to label Putin’ s War . I will use Russia the aggressor , the US , the EU , Germany , Poland and Nigeria as examples of how oil as a weapon of war , attrition and decay has become the most potent opponent of the goal of those who want it phased out for green and climate focused energy but still cannot survive this Putin War without oil .The intention here is not to glamorize oil and its importance .It is to show like , the Yoruba proverb says , that ‘ until you have seized the hilt of your sword , you do not inquire who killed your father . ‘
We start with Russia , the invader of Ukraine in Putin’s War . In retrospect , and now with the power of hindsight, one can identify Putin’s grouse although it was lost in plain sight . NATO or the US never addressed Putin’s security concern over Ukraine just to say Ukraine would not join the EU and the security implications of that . Putin , in a belligerent now ominous speech wondered about ‘ those who think they own the world ‘ and warned that historically and culturally Ukraine is an inseparable part of Russia , like Belarus as the trio are Slavs . It is clear to Putin , who those ‘who own the world ‘ are, namely the US and EU, the epitome and arrow head of western civilization which won the Cold war after the second World War and dismantled the USSR under Gorbachev in 1991 . Putin’s War in 2022 is a redress of that historical fact and the West saw it coming but were hoping against hope that Putin would not have the guts to go to full scale war . They read Putin wrong with all the intelligence at their disposal . Now they must count their losses in bloody , tragic terms .
Let me now take the EU and US together before I take Germany and Poland on the same boat . When the Biden Administration came to power I started this column and noted that the Biden government would try to muscle Nigeria on Climate Change , the phasing out of fossil fuel and that we should resist , as oil is Nigeria’s main livelihood . That was during the pandemic and I still have such fears . But then this Putin’s War has changed economic and political equation on fossil fuel and climate change . The EU and US need oil not because they do not have oil but have paralysed themselves on using oil to fight this war because they got to power on the promise to their electorate that they would phase out oil in 20 to 30 years . Now they have a war with Russia and have blocked use of Russian oil but cannot now produce their own oil where available because they are commited to Climate Change and the elimination of fossil fuel . Nothing illustrates eating your cake and still having it better .
In the case of Germany and Poland , the hangover of the WW2 is giving way to stark pragmatism . The naivety of the Angela Merkel long chancellorship is giving way to new economic and military realities . Merkel was warned that oil pipeline from Russia to Germany could be used as an economic weapon against Germany but she retorted that Putin has promised not to do so. Now where is Angela Merkel ? After the atrocities of the Nazis under Hitler Germany became a war loathing nation but since the start of Putin’s War it has cancelled the Pipeline Project with Russia and has increased its Defence Budget very grossly to be able to defend its territorial integrity in the face of Putin’s War . Poland which suffered immensely under Nazi Occupation has offered its fleet of some war planes to the US to protect Ukraine while asking for superior US was planes to protect itself . Poland is pragmatic enough to know that after Ukraine the Russians would be gunning for Poland as Hitler did in the second world war . Poland is proactive in preparing for Putin’s war than the US which was surprised by Poland’s offer which it reportedly found quite interesting .
Now let us round up with Nigeria where oil has become a weapon of war of a different category . It has created immense wealth for certain categories of Nigerians , especially the political class who in government , control the oil proceeds, blessings and profits , both legal and illegal .It has spawned huge and insurmountable inequalities between the poor and the rich in Nigeria . Indeed oil has become a weapon of suppression and corruption based on the architecture of an expensive American presidential system of government minus its inherent checks and balances between the executive , the judiciary and the legislature . This has created a highly insecure environment especially in the North where an invasion of insurgents has created millions of displaced people not lucky to be focused on CNN like the victims of Putin’s War in Ukraine . Definitely , oil has invaded Nigeria for a long time certainly not like Putin’s war in Ukraine , but even as a more potent destroyer of the quality of life of most Nigerians. Except those who cornered the oil and are reveling in their ill gotten wealth at the expense of the poor Nigerian masses , living largely in penury .