Category: Dayo Sobowale

  • Power, Elections and Security

    Power, Elections and Security

    Nigerians are in the  throes of pain, anguish , and serious suffering   over  a lack of money and fuel to move their vehicles and run their businesses  on the eve of an election . Similarly   in   the   US,  Americans   suffered  the humiliation of watching a strange  balloon hovering over their  continent from the skies later identified as Chinese ,  before a frightened and dithering government summoned the nerve  to have it shot down . Yet  in a scheduled state of the    union address  expected to be      the annual  rendering of government accountability on performance and mandate  , the US president gleefully  asserted  this week    that   America  has never had it so good  . That   drew   the ire of   a furious   Republican    opposition legislator   who  shouted  ‘ liar’  to his face and in his presence in the Capitol ,America’s seat of power in Washington DC  .

    Today   I draw a fascinating comparison between the political culture , government and security of  my nation Nigeria , the   largest black nation in the world , the  USA the   largest democracy and presidential system  in the world , and   little  Israel ,  the most  cantankerous   but   very   security conscious  nation in the Middle East  and scourge of the Arab world as well  as   the Islamic state  of  Iran .  The   lines of comparison are thick and obvious between  Nigeria and the US .  This is because Nigeria evolved  from colonialism   as a parliamentary democracy  at independence in 1960 before the military  coups of  1966    and   subsequent    ones later  ,  diverted our political course and destiny towards  ,  at first ,   a unitary command system   and   structure  of government and later the  American style  of presidential system of government  and separation of powers .  It  is the use and separation of powers  in these three nations that  arrest  our attention today  in terms  of time and space  and the scope of power transition.  Especially at  times of elections  and  refreshment  of power ,  which  are expected to be conducted in a safe and secure environment  in any democracy .

    Let  me start  with initial observations on the political  situations in these nations as of today before darting into   historical  comparisons   and  analysis .  Israel ,   in the face of  rocket  war with Hizbollah and Gaza is rocking from huge  democratic protests against   planned   judicial   reforms  of   the newly elected government of Benjamin Netanyahu  who  has  just claimed the democratic mantle  to  govern for the  sixth  time,  in a vastly unstable  system  of  government  which  must  be second only to that of Italy in terms of  frequency   of  change of government at numerous and various  occasions and based on many issues and contentions . Nigeria  on the other hand faces a presidential  election on February 25 but the electorate  is not focused on the election but on how to survive as human beings looking  for   food , fuel and money  which   have    become rare   commodities   in  these  hard  days  and  times.  These   translate into how to have money to eat and pay for transport at affordable prices which is  hard  and   impossible because the  banks  have literally  seized  customers deposits and money because of the unavailability of money  from the  Central Bank  .     This    arose   from   a policy     of a new currency design and confiscation of old notes , all  on the eve of a   long planned    presidential election slated for this month on February 25 2023 . In the US a   balloon floated  over sites   and    cities  harboring nuclear weapons and military arsenal and the Chinese owned up it was theirs  . But  a sitting US government accepted their excuse that  it was for meteorological  research  before shooting it down days later in the shoddiest manifestation of deterrence by a world power . This   is   because   the US ,   diplomatically and militarily , accepts that China is a potent enemy and adversary of the US globally and second only to Russia in that regard .

    Obviously all  three nations face different types of security   problems but the US  just had   its mid term elections  last year and  will  not  have a presidential election till  2024.  Whilst Israel  just had Netanyahu elected as PM of  what is said to be the most radical far right coalition in the Jewish  state recent history  . Nigeria  on the other  hand  is having its  presidential election this month and Nigerians are beset  with problems of hunger and mobility  such that it is apparent that voter apathy will  be a major determinant of the   result of the presidential  election if it takes place as scheduled .  I  pray    it  is not postponed because  of  the high fuel cost and  crippling  non availability of money and funds for Nigerians to go about  of  their daily  duties and eke out a living most especially at  an  election time such as we are in .

     Some  observers have said that Nigeria’s  unexpected pre election hiatus on fuel  and naira  shortage are self inflicted and   could have been a retaliatory policy of an aggrieved CBN  governor  who also  wanted to be president but was not given the green light to  contest by his boss  who happens to be the incumbent president  .  My take on that is that the CBN  boss is more of the boss than  his legitimate boss  who   happens to be the president . Or else how can  a CBN governor want to be president before resigning  first as required before contesting ?.  It is a clear  case of the tail  wagging the dog that the CBN governor is back on his seat and driving the currency  redesign process after having declared openly that  he wanted to be president and  was not allowed . Yet   he  is   still    driving the currency change   on the eve of an election that he was not allowed  to contest in .  It again shows  the strength of the executive  in   Nigeria’s  presidential system in which the APC is  controlling both the legislature and the  executive  .  Surprisingly      though   ,  it    cannot provide  an  enabling and comfortable environment for its own candidate  ,the   Jagaban , who is the forerunner in this election  to   literally coast  to victory as any government in power is expected to  do   legitimately    for its own  candidate in any  democracy . As Shakespeare  once noted in  the   tragedy  Hamlet  ‘ something is rotten in the state of Denmark ‘  and surely  something is fishy in the way the APC is not  using its executive power to further  it retention of power in this month’s election . It  is in bad taste for a party in power to treat  its candidate like an orphan and create avoidable crisis on the eve of an election it has pledged  support  its    candidate  openly and is campaigning all  over the nation to see this through . The consequences   can be suicidal if not destabilizing both for nation and party . Again a word is enough for the wise .

    Aside  from the  floating  Chinese   balloon issue  in the US  , the current  US president is behaving like the proverbial  ostrich with  its head buried  in the sand . The Biden government is in for a hard time  with the Republican  majority in the Lower House  of its legislature . I recall a state of the Union address when Speaker Nancy Pelosi  tore the president’s  speech  being  delivered by Donald Trump .  Pelosi  was seated behind  the president then with his VP  Mike   Pence  . When   Biden  delivered   his state  of the union address  this week  the VP Kamala Harris  was seated behind the president with Kevin Macarthy , the new Speaker  of the House . This is where  the fire works begin for Biden on his mishandling of the US inflation which is said to be the highest in 40 years , a porous border where drugs  said to be enough to kill  every man woman and  child in America   are  smuggled in with impunity  , and   an economy    in which  fuel  prices are   rising like in Nigeria because of Biden’s policy to close down the oil  companies literally because of his priority and pursuit of clean energy and consummation of climate change policy  . The die is cast  for the Biden government and family  given the majority reality   of the Republicans in the House of Representatives  .  This   , together   with  his son Hunter’s  lost lap top and dealings with China   means  the American  president us about to learn  a hard   lesson  that those who live in glass houses should not throw stones .

  • Power, elections and security

    Nigerians are in the  throes of pain, anguish , and serious   suffering   over  a lack of money and fuel to move their vehicles and run their businesses  on the eve of an election . Similarly   in   the   US,  Americans   suffered  the humiliation of watching a strange  balloon hovering over their  continent from the skies later identified as Chinese ,  before a frightened and dithering government summoned the nerve  to have it shot down . Yet  in a scheduled state of the    union address  expected to be      the annual  rendering of government accountability on performance and mandate  , the US president gleefully  asserted  this week    that   America  has never had it so good  . That   drew   the ire of   a furious   Republican    opposition legislator   who  shouted  ‘ liar’  to his face and in his presence in the Capitol ,America’s seat of power in Washington DC  .

    Today   I draw a fascinating comparison between the political culture , government and security of  my nation Nigeria , the   largest black nation in the world , the  USA the   largest democracy and presidential system  in the world , and   little  Israel ,  the most  cantankerous   but   very   security conscious  nation in the Middle East  and scourge of the Arab world as well  as   the Islamic state  of  Iran .  The   lines of comparison are thick and obvious between  Nigeria and the US .  This is because Nigeria evolved  from colonialism   as a parliamentary democracy  at independence in 1960 before the military  coups of  1966    and   subsequent    ones later  ,  diverted our political course and destiny towards  ,  at first ,   a unitary command system   and   structure  of government and later the  American style  of presidential system of government  and separation of powers .  It  is the use and separation of powers  in these three nations that  arrest  our attention today  in terms  of time and space  and the scope of power transition.  Especially at  times of elections  and  refreshment  of power ,  which  are expected to be conducted in a safe and secure environment  in any democracy .

    Let  me start  with initial observations on the political  situations in these nations as of today before darting into   historical  comparisons   and  analysis .  Israel ,   in the face of  rocket  war with Hizbollah and Gaza is rocking from huge  democratic protests against   planned   judicial   reforms  of   the newly elected government of Benjamin Netanyahu  who  has  just claimed the democratic mantle  to  govern for the  sixth  time,  in a vastly unstable  system  of  government  which  must  be second only to that of Italy in terms of  frequency   of  change of government at numerous and various  occasions and based on many issues and contentions . Nigeria  on the other hand faces a presidential  election on February 25 but the electorate  is not focused on the election but on how to survive as human beings looking  for   food , fuel and money  which   have    become rare   commodities   in  these  hard  days  and  times.  These   translate into how to have money to eat and pay for transport at affordable prices which is  hard  and   impossible because the  banks  have literally  seized  customers deposits and money because of the unavailability of money  from the  Central Bank  .     This    arose   from   a policy     of a new currency design and confiscation of old notes , all  on the eve of a   long planned    presidential election slated for this month on February 25 2023 . In the US a   balloon floated  over sites   and    cities  harboring nuclear weapons and military arsenal and the Chinese owned up it was theirs  . But  a sitting US government accepted their excuse that  it was for meteorological  research  before shooting it down days later in the shoddiest manifestation of deterrence by a world power . This   is   because   the US ,   diplomatically and militarily , accepts that China is a potent enemy and adversary of the US globally and second only to Russia in that regard .

    Obviously all  three nations face different types of security   problems but the US  just had   its mid term elections  last year and  will  not  have a presidential election till  2024.  Whilst Israel  just had Netanyahu elected as PM of  what is said to be the most radical far right coalition in the Jewish  state recent history  . Nigeria  on the other  hand  is having its  presidential election this month and Nigerians are beset  with problems of hunger and mobility  such that it is apparent that voter apathy will  be a major determinant of the   result of the presidential  election if it takes place as scheduled .  I  pray    it  is not postponed because  of  the high fuel cost and  crippling  non availability of money and funds for Nigerians to go about  of  their daily  duties and eke out a living most especially at  an  election time such as we are in .

     Some  observers have said that Nigeria’s  unexpected pre election hiatus on fuel  and naira  shortage are self inflicted and   could have been a retaliatory policy of an aggrieved CBN  governor  who also  wanted to be president but was not given the green light to  contest by his boss  who happens to be the incumbent president  .  My take on that is that the CBN  boss is more of the boss than  his legitimate boss  who   happens to be the president . Or else how can  a CBN governor want to be president before resigning  first as required before contesting ?.  It is a clear  case of the tail  wagging the dog that the CBN governor is back on his seat and driving the currency  redesign process after having declared openly that  he wanted to be president and  was not allowed . Yet   he  is   still    driving the currency change   on the eve of an election that he was not allowed  to contest in .  It again shows  the strength of the executive  in   Nigeria’s  presidential system in which the APC is  controlling both the legislature and the  executive  .  Surprisingly      though   ,  it    cannot provide  an  enabling and comfortable environment for its own candidate  ,the   Jagaban , who is the forerunner in this election  to   literally coast  to victory as any government in power is expected to  do   legitimately    for its own  candidate in any  democracy . As Shakespeare  once noted in  the   tragedy  Hamlet  ‘ something is rotten in the state of Denmark ‘  and surely  something is fishy in the way the APC is not  using its executive power to further  it retention of power in this month’s election . It  is in bad taste for a party in power to treat  its candidate like an orphan and create avoidable crisis on the eve of an election it has pledged  support  its    candidate  openly and is campaigning all  over the nation to see this through . The consequences   can be suicidal if not destabilizing both for nation and party . Again a word is enough for the wise .

    Aside  from the  floating  Chinese   balloon issue  in the US  , the current  US president is behaving like the proverbial  ostrich with  its head buried  in the sand . The Biden government is in for a hard time  with the Republican  majority in the Lower House  of its legislature . I recall a state of the Union address when Speaker Nancy Pelosi  tore the president’s  speech  being  delivered by Donald Trump .  Pelosi  was seated behind  the president then with his VP  Mike   Pence  . When   Biden  delivered   his state  of the union address  this week  the VP Kamala Harris  was seated behind the president with Kevin Macarthy , the new Speaker  of the House . This is where  the fire works begin for Biden on his mishandling of the US inflation which is said to be the highest in 40 years , a porous border where drugs  said to be enough to kill  every man woman and  child in America   are  smuggled in with impunity  , and   an economy    in which  fuel  prices are   rising like in Nigeria because of Biden’s policy to close down the oil  companies literally because of his priority and pursuit of clean energy and consummation of climate change policy  . The die is cast  for the Biden government and family  given the majority reality   of the Republicans in the House of Representatives  .  This   , together   with  his son Hunter’s  lost lap top and dealings with China   means  the American  president us about to learn  a hard   lesson  that those who live in glass houses should not throw stones .

  • Colonialism, force and peace

    Colonialism, force and peace

    The views of three personalities and leaders on the above topic shape our discussion today . They  are the Catholic Pope  Francis  ,  the  outspoken Governor of Kaduna State Nasir El Rufai   and the  veteran PM    of Israel  Benjamin Netanyahu  .  The Pope spoke  on a visit to war ridden and perennially politically   volatile  Congo Kinshasa .  El Nasir  voiced an  opinion on the opposition  of some’ elements ‘ in Aso Rock ,   Nigeria’s seat  of power to the election of APC  presidential  candidate Jagaban  Bola Ahmed Tinubu as president of Nigeria in this month’s presidential election  . Netanyahu  spoke on global peace and the security of his nation Israel  in a very  educative and sizzling interview with CNN this week .

    On   the first  day of his visit to Congo Kinshasa  the Pope   condemned what he called ‘ economic colonialism ‘ in Africa  noting pontifically in the presidential palace in Kinshasa –  ‘After political colonialism  , an equally enslaving economic colonialism was unleashed . This country , largely plundered , therefore fails to take sufficient advantage of its immense resources’ .  The  Pope  then   warned   western  nations  and former    colonial  nations   and   internal   colonialists  , in a rare  ,  shrilly  admonition , ‘’ Take  your hands off Democratic Republic of Congo , take your hands off Africa . Stop suffocating Africa; it is not a mine to be exploited nor a land to be plundered ‘

    While  one may condemn the role of religion in colonial Africa  in that the church was complicit with the colonialists   who  came with the gun in one hand and the  bible    in the other ,  in a manner of ‘ praise the lord  and pass the ammunition ‘ , the Pope’s  call  is benevolent  ,    compunctious  and timely  . It reminds  one  of the   on going efforts of some American states  to make reparations  to  black  Americans on the past and present sufferings  and inhuman exploitation  of slavery , the labours  of which built the huge American  nation   and    prosperous  economy  .

    At  a lecture at the prestigious Yoruba Tennis Club  Tennis Club Onikan , Lagos   given by the running  mate of the Jagaban  ,  Kashim Shettima  Mustapha   last year I    asked him a question on why   and how Nigerians , having survived the exploitation and slavery  of colonialism now have  to cope with the colonialism of politicians and their  strategy  of exclusion of the rest of the society . Shettima  replied to my satisfaction that the solution lies in electing his ticket to the presidency of Nigeria  in this month’s presidential  election .  That  seemed  to be very well  on the way till  the new   ,  raging  fuel  shortage ,   and new  currency design  cropped  up un expectedly  to show that in politics nothing comes on a platter of gold .  This is where the observation of the governor of Kaduna  state ,  El Rufai  comes in handy  and is very  useful  for the APC  and its presidential  candidate  to  consummate their ambition of retaining power  in this   month’s presidential election . El  Rufai  has exposed the enemy within in Aso Rock  and is asking the APC government to put its house in order and not go to sleep  in a house with thatched roof while there is fire on the roof top . Which  his declaration on ‘ elements  ‘ in Aso Rock  against  Tinubu’s  election  as president , clearly  indicates .

    El  Rufai  went  back to history  to show that the president is trying to do  the  right thing but some ‘elements ‘  in Aso  Rock  are trying to frustrate what the president did quietly  when  he was a military president  ,  ably assisted then by Tunde Idiagbon and they changed the currency  to deal with those hoarding  the naira .El  Rufai  commended the naira  redesign policy . According to him – ‘It  is a good intention . The  president has his right . But doing it at this time within the time allotted does not make any political  or economic sense .’ That  is the truth and it is coming from the inner circle of the holy of holies of the APC . The  party must     urgently   re –  strategise  its       campaign    to  face the challenges of the enemy in the high  quarters  of its  party and in its  seat  of power   in  order  to retain power in this month’s election .  That is the pragmatic and bold way  to avert  the real  danger of treachery in high places which  the El Rufai revelation has unleashed and it is not too late  for victory in this month’s election .

    However  it   is in the Netanyahu  interview that  we see the  consummation   and  complete  illustration of the three concepts of the topic  of the day . Up  till  this interview I had respected Netanyahu as a durable and wily  politician having been elected six times as PM of his nation. Since  I view Israel as a colonial power  in the way it treats the Palestinians   especially  in the occupied    territories , I had  a scant   respect  for its many times PM . This interview however increased the respect I  have  for the Israeli  leader profoundly as a world leader who  knows his onions in securing his nation  and his priorities in doing so . 

    Netanyahu showed his CNN    interviewer  in an  hour long   interview  that he was an American like himself and that he  has known the present American president for about 40years . He literally mesmerized his interviewer  who was looking at his note book before asking questions while Netanyahu spoke brilliantly and incisively ,    off   the cuff  on  all  the questions  he was asked  . Netanyahu  stated his driving priorities ,  for  which  he believes has  been elected several  times  in  Israel  ,  as  ensuring Iran does not have a nuclear arsenal , managing peace with the Palestinians and developing the innovative Israeli  economy. He  said Iran  is his first  priority   on   the security  of Israel  because that nation wants to destroy Israel  and its slogan is ‘ death to Israel and death to America  ‘ .   He  said   the culture  of Iran is to  celebrate   death    while  that of Israel    is to  celebrate    life  .  On the peace with the Palestinians   he   advocates   what he called   judicious  use  of    force    as his policy  is  to ensure the Palestinians do not drive Israel  into the sea  which   is their declared goal .   He   believes it is better to make peace with bigger or friendlier Arab  states as he thinks the Palestinian tail   should  not be wagging the  bigger Arabs  with regard to peace  deal  with Israel . On   the   huge protests  in Israel  on his judicial  reforms he blamed judicial activism  as disrupting the balance of power in Israel  where judges appoint themselves .He  believes  the Russian Invasion of Ukraine    was a threat  to world peace but he does  not want to intervene as there should not be too many cooks in the kitchen  in the search  for  peace although he would  consider a role if invited by the US .

    While  I condemn Israel’s policy as a colonial  power  with the Palestinians  I admire Netanyahu’s   fierce patriotism and deep  concern for the security of his people and nation . That is what leadership  should be   about   at all times  . That type  of leadership is what Nigeria needs and that is why I support the call of the Jagaban that Nigerians should arm themselves with  their voters cards and  go and vote for  him as president   if only   for their   security and    in    spite of the odds  , mischief and obstacles  in the path of the Emi Lokan journey ,   on February  25  . A word  is enough for the wise . 

  • Elections, alarms and signals

    Elections, alarms and signals

    The  alarm  raised  by the presidential candidate of the ruling APC Jagaban Bola Ahmed Tinubu  that  those behind the present persistent fuel scarcity ,      and   against the  new naira redesign  are against  him  winning  the election of Feb 25 2013   but   that people should just go and vote for him  to win anyway , prompted today’s topic   for discussion  . I  see the alarm as  a follow up  to the topic of last week which  was   about weaponisation  and the topic was  ‘Weapons , Wars and Ideas ‘’.  I leave it to  your  conclusion on whether I am  right  on the matter   or  not     but   that  can only be if you have read the piece . Since habitually I  do  not  dwell  in the past on my write  ups, I     move   ahead   to   take a look   today  at  similar alarms  raised  in the past on not only elections but on culture ,religion  and  especially    politics .   This    is  to  see if such alarms or the signals that prompted them      are  false or  real  and  whether  we can  use the expression ‘ crying wolf where there is none ‘ to describe them or not  .

    This  alarm  by the Jagaban  can be viewed  today  in the context  of his now timely and  righteous indignation of ‘ its  my  turn ‘ indignant  outburst   in English  ,  which   he said   in Yoruba    –  Emi   Lokan  – before his party’s   presidential  primaries that secured him the presidential  ticket  of the ruling APC . I    will  compare  the Asiwaju’s alarm today with  that  of two  world  leaders who  were  suspicious  of the circumstances they  found  themselves and the odds against  their  leadership at  a point in time and who  saw signals that they raised  alarm over  and what  happened thereafter . One was Donald Trump  and his alarm  over covid lockdowns on the eve  of his  re election campaign   in   the 2020  US presidential    election which    he lost .  The    other   leader   is President Vladmir Putin  of Russia  and his fears  that the Obama Administration  was  planning against  his return as president  of Russia after    his   first   tenure    [ 2000 — 2008 ]   when his surrogate  Dmitry  Medvedev  was president [  2008  – 2012 ] and he was  PM for  one term [ 2008—   2012  ] in consonance with the provisions of the Russian  constitution then . Which he later amended   to literally  become president  for life on his return  as  Russian  president culminating  in the invasion of the Crimea in 2014  and the  on going Russian  invasion of Ukraine .

    Let  me now  examine  these three  events    first  in the signals they emitted and  the context of today’s  topic . Briefly  and  in Nigeria ,  the Jagaban is saying that  his opponents  are trying to  foment trouble and confusion  on the eve of the Feb 25  elections but that if the  voters turn out as he urged      them   confidently,  he would win .  That sounds   like a  reasonable   fear ,  albeit an alarm and  it is logical  for him to assume   and raise   the alarm that a peaceful election is a sine qua non  for  an enabling environment to conduct a fee and fair election   which   he plans to win . I  ally myself with  his alarm and wish  him well  with his ambition . 

    In  Donald  Trump’s  case  I   wrote  before that  he saw  a premonition that  he would lose the 2020 presidential  election if he allowed  the  shrilly  fear  of covid  on health and lock  down the US economy . His  opponents knew this too and forced his  hand and had  a willing collaborator in the Covid  health  authorities ‘ and    fought back  Trump’s  desperate efforts  to down play covid and  prevent the lock down of the US economy . Indeed his  opponent who eventually  won was locked down  in his  bunker during the election campaigns . If  the issue  of the lost  lap  top of  President Joe Biden’s  son   Hunter   had become an issue too on the eve of the 2020 presidential  election ,  as it should indeed have  been , there is no doubt that  Trump  would have been re elected .The   Russian Collusion that trailed Trump  presidency which turned  out to  be false was another false alarm use to derail Trump’s  reelection  chances .  That  he later turned out to call the election  of his opponent as president a  ‘stolen election ‘ is a result of his frustration that  all  the alarms that he raised on the signals he saw which  the media and big tech companies branded as misinformation or fake news  ,  were  not heeded . That  of course was the nature of US politics in an unexpected time and regime  of a global  pandemic  and Trump  perished  politically  in terms of  his lost  presidency making Joe Biden the new president and main beneficiary of the covid presidential election of 2020 .

    In  the rift  between the US and  Russia  which  the present Russian invasion of Russia has escalated ,  leadership  personality clashes  between the Obama Administration   and   Putin’s    regime played  a major part . A look at Putin’s two  presential  tenures will show that he was more at home with Republican  US  presidents   namely George Bush 2001 – 2008  and  Donald Trump 2016 – 2020 . He  had    disdain for the Obama  Administration because he thought it was indecisive on issues and  the fact  that it made gay politics and sympathy a corner piece of its administration . Even though Russia is communist  its government sees itself as quite democratic. That  was what it was trying to show the world when Putin stepped down  to be PM and  return as a more powerful president later .  In addition  Putin  has accommodated the Russian Orthodox Church which again is  anti gay and anti abortion which the Democratic Party  support  fully in the US . Before the Russian Invasion  of   Ukraine  Putin  hinted  at   ‘the arrogance of  some leaders to think  they own the world ‘  It  was    a veiled   reference  to the Biden Administration  . He  tested the mettle of the Obama Administration twice when he supported the leader of Syria who was using chemical  weapons against  his people and Obama promised to do something to stop it but did nothing . This  emboldened Putin  to invade the Crimea in 2014    and he got away   it   with,  hence the Invasion  of Ukraine later ,  on the excuse of NATO   encirclement  and security  concerns .

    There  is no doubt  that if Donald  Trump  was president Putin  would not  have invaded Ukraine . This is because he has respect  for  Republican  presidents and even rode horse like a cowboy when  he visited George Bush’s  ranch  on a visit to  the US during that American president’s  tenure . In addition Putin   reportedly    seriously   believed  that     protests in Russia    on the eve of his return to office as president    were  encouraged by the American Secretary of State then Hillary Clinton  and there was   no love lost between the two . Anyway  Putin seemed  to have misjudged the timing and duration of his present invasion of  Ukraine . He had planned for a   blitzkrieg like  Hitler  and  like he did in Crimea  but this is turning into a long war of attrition and miscalculation from which it seems  he ccan  ever  emerge  victorious . American  arms and financial  support as well as crippling sanctions which  Russia  lamely claims  it is used to,  have shown that even though NATO and the US  are  shouting from the rooftops that they  are  not at war  with Russia ,  the  world  is not deceived that they  are they  are raising a false  alarm  or sending a wrong signal .

  • Weapons, wars and ideas

    Weapons, wars and ideas

    The  word ‘ weaponisation   has been in frequent use nowadays   and it is not only with regard to conflicts and real wars but also  with new emerging cultures and ideas . A    good example is the   observation  by  one of the world’s largest producer of fertilizers   the company  Yara     at    the World  Economic Forum   in Davos ,  Switzerland accusing Russia   of   weaponising not only energy  but also food  in the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine .  The  spokes  person from Yara   asked nations to cut their reliance on Russia  because its invasion of Ukraine has  caused  food  supply issues as Russia is a top exporter of fertilisers   and  chemicals used to make them .But  that alarm has ignored the fact that  in a modern world we are in   today  the western media and network  giants like CNN  and  BBC   too , have become potent weapons  of western propaganda against  Russia since it invaded Ukraine.  Both  the EU and US have   poured  millions of real weapons  into Russia   and have held talks and conferences on ideas and strategies  to defend Ukraine and deter  and   disgrace  Russia by all  means possible . Yet   they  do not see their own actions as weaponisation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine   but as mere diplomacy . 

    When  disagreements occur and ideas clash ,  words  flow freely and  mostly  subjectively and nowadays the word weaponisation creeps  in inadvertently  and is fast  gaining ground in modern politics  and global  diplomacy . We  shall  look at some examples  today  to see  if the context of usage measures up to the alarm of weaponisation.. For I  ,indeed  , see the accusation of weaponisation   as  an alarm or warning that  something or action is going awry   and that an aberration or misuse of power  or energy  is in the offing .Aside  from the Invasion of Ukraine by Russia which is a real war of   artillery , mortar , tanks and aircraft which are real ammunitions  of war we shall  look at policies and issues in some nations and countries  which  have been  branded as weapons because of the results or unintended  consequences arising from  their use  or  application to on going socio economic or political issues and discussions .

    In  the US the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives has accused the Biden Administration of weaponisation of both the FBI and the Department of  Justice  in the way it has branded parents who object to their children being taught race and sex issues  at school and the manner  in  which both institutions  have labeled  such parents as’ domestic terrorists .‘  In the UK  ,  the new administration of PM    Rishi  Sunak is planning legislation  that would give more powers to the police  to curb  protests such  that they do not disturb  the entire public  from their  work  while acknowledging that protests are an intrinsic part of any democracy . In Nigeria    the announcement by the Minister  of Police Affairs  that  the Inspector General of Police would stay beyond his retirement age because of the coming presidential elections in February as well as the observation of a former school mate of the late MKO who won the  annulled  June 12 election,   that he could not become president because of  ‘bad belle  ‘ or envy are issues    that can  be branded as both political and historical  weaponisation  which   are difficult  to  view dispassionately  or objectively  .

    In  the US the Republicans  are  set to settle scores  with the Democrats who  lost their majority in the last mid terms  elections to the House .  With  Republicans as chairmen of key  committees   there is bound to be reversals  of many House decision and policies of the last Democrats  house in which Nancy Pelosi was the famous and very powerful Speaker . Now Kevin Macarthy is the Speaker and even though he is hemmed in by some radicals in his party he is bound to lead them in collecting their pound of flesh on many issues especially the Jan 6 Capitol protests called an Insurrection by the Democrats and just a protest  by Republicans .  If  the Republicans are  seen  to be fair in ‘ prosecuting  ‘  key Biden officials  like the Immigration boss  they  will  have the public goodwill  of the American electorate  and  certainly  improve their tiny majority  in the 2024  presidential election which  their main driver and leader has thrown  his cap  into the ring to contest . If  they act  however with the same vindictiveness of the  House Democrats of the Pelosi  era on the impeachment of Trump , the invasion of Mara Lago by FBI  and now  the concealment of documents by the President eight years      ago  now being given  the same legal  inquiry to which  Trump  was subjected   before  , then  they may lose the public goodwill  and that may cost them the 2024 election .  Any way  the coast  is clear  in legislative terms  for the Republicans to show that what is good for the goose  is sauce for the gander . 

    In  the UK,  the  coming   legislation to curb disruptive protests  is  long overdue . Anyway  such protests have been  exported and  was the genesis of the unfortunate Stop SARS protests  in Nigeria in which many of our youths  lost their lives unnecessarily  . This last week  German Police had to eject many protesters campaigning   for climate change and   trying to stop government from  turning back to coal  production in the face of the use of energy as a weapon of war by Russia in the war with Ukraine . The new  UK  anti disruptive protests bill is known as Public Order Bill and  its aim is to broaden the   legal definition of ‘serious disruption , give police more flexibility  and provide legal clarity on when the new powers  could  be used ‘  The  PM has said that the right to protest is a fundamental principle of British democracy but it is not absolute .  ’ Which is like telling overzealous protesters that their freedom ends where the nose  of the rest of society begins .

    We  come now to the  twin issues of the extension of the retirement of the IGP by the Police Minister and the approval of the president for the 2023 presidential  elections . The funny side of that is that the government   seems  so scared of any   prospect of  failure of the elections that it wants to play  very  safe by relying on a safe tested hand  . It   is like saying that ‘ the devil you know is better  than the one you don’t know ‘ . That  to me is reasonable and   patriotic . Especially   in our Great Nigeria but  I bet the opposition will  see it differently . You  just wait  for their reaction . 

    In  the case of the’ bad belle ‘or envy charge against MKO by  his school mate  I also  see the lighter side of a clear  attempt  to use history as a weapon   to settle scores , although  I remind OBJ , a devout Christian  , of the saying that ‘ you do not speak ill  of the dead’ .  I  admire  both school  mates very  much  as God-  given,  highly  talented Nigerian leaders of the Yoruba race . But  peer  rivalry never ends and at the height of the June 12 crisis ,  OBJ angrily    retorted   that MKO was not the Messiah  Nigeria  needed . Yet  no one can deny that OBJ is one of our best Nigerian visionary leaders  as acknowledged by no less a person than former Commonwealth Secretary General  Chief Emeka Anyaoku at his 90th  birthday recently  . Stars in all walks of  life ,  especially   politics ,  do not like sharing the lime light  with any body  . Not even dead ones .But I   assure OBJ that his space in  the  history of our nation is unassailable and   assured  and he can afford to forgive and forget  his peers . That   is magnanimity . More so ,  when they  are dead and buried .

  • Language, responsibility and civility

    Language, responsibility and civility

    POLITICAL campaigns are part of political competition and participation in which candidates  and  politicians sell their plans and programmes  to  the electorate so that they can vote for them in their bid to get power in any democracy . Manifestoes and press releases are part and  parcel of campaigns  and they are issued  continuously till the deadline to stop  them   before  elections    by the electoral authorities come into force . The  same goes for affirmations , clarifications and denials on  matters raised  by politicians who are contesting during campaigns  in  which civility and good breeding dictate  should be done in  moderate and polite manner without  the use of abusive language . It is the misuse of language in the political arena by political  competitors , leaders and politicians in general on the campaign trail    or  in government and power , that  concerns  us today . This  is  because  words in language and culture are like broken eggs which  all  the force of the universe cannot  gather  together once the egg is spilt  to the ground of human     discourse ,  political campaigns  or competition .I will  illustrate with  vivid examples  and  show how they  offend decency and moderation in their state of use  of language which  I find  offensive and almost inhuman if not outright  wicked and very rude for civil discourse and campaigns

    In  Nigeria this week   the campaigns  degenerated  to   the state of health of the  presidential  candidates for the two    major  political  parties namely the APC  which  is in power and the PDP . The  PDP while  reacting  to allegations of corruption and state of health  of its presidential  candidate issued  a nasty press  release on purely personal health  issues  of the APC presidential candidate that I will  not  mention here because they  should be un printable in any decent society . In the US  the  president , Joe  Biden   admitted    he  has   kept   classified  documents   in his possession which he should have turned over to government archives  after his tenure as  Vice President  to Barak Obama   and  was played back  his condemnation       of his predecessor as ‘ irresponsible’ when Donald Trump  was alleged to have  kept   similar  documents at his Mara Lago  residence which was raided  by the FBI last year .  In the UK  Prince  Harry  son of  Diana former Princess  of Wales  and reigning King Charles 111  admitted killing many Talibans in Afgahnistan as he was taught   by the army  to regard them as a game on a chess board and not human beings   and  that  he took  cocaine    some time while he was growing up  . Let  me now show what I  find offensive , indecent  and extravagant  in all  these  events and situations .

    We  go back  to the spat between the spokesmen of the APC and  the PDP on the health of their  presidential candidates . The APC had  accused the  PDP  presidential  candidate as not in sound health and of  corruption . The accusation on health ground was un necessary and superfluous as the PDP candidate ,  given his huge wealth was quite  capable of handling  his health needs and  requirements and does not need anyone to call his attention to that even on the campaign trail . The accusation of corruption is not original to the APC spokesman as this was a well  and often repeated accusation of the former boss  of the PDP presidential  candidate  when he was the Vice President and an  accusation very recently  mad when the former president endorsed a presidential candidate recently . The  accusation of corruption can therefore stand to be refuted or admitted  by the PDP Spokesman .

    Instead the PDP descended into the fallacy of Ad Hominem to  attack  the person and private health of the APC presidential  candidate and making claims  on his health as if the spokesman is a super man without any  health issues what so ever which  is impossible . Again  I will   not    dignify  what he said by repeating them  here ,  except to ask  him to issue  an   apology as he can surely   run a  campaign without disparaging   the health of the APC candidate so wickedly as he has done in that press  release . Let   me remind the PDP  spokesman  that our incumbent president was sick  for sometime early in his tenure but Nigerians  respected   his privacy  and  treated him with respect and goodwill  till  he survived the illness and still  survived covid  . In the WW2 from  1939  – 1945 ,  the US  was led  by a president   on a wheel chair Franklin Delano  Roosevelt  [ FDR ‘  who led the Allies till  they   defeated the huge army and might  of Nazi  Germany . The  PDP    spokesman   should  be reminded of a Chinese proverb  that says – ‘ count no man lucky till  he is dead’ .

    In  the case of classified  documents now found in an office used by the US president  Joe  Biden  when he was Vice President the situation has now shifted to a case of the  pot calling kettle back  in the way  he branded  former president Trump as ‘ irresponsible’  when  his residence was raided  on the same charge   recently .  By  now Biden should know that those who  live in glass houses should not   throw  stones .  I  think Joe Biden  is in for a rough  ride with the US House of Representatives  over many issues  especially  the way the FBI and pro  Democrats media  covered the revelations of corruption on  his son Hunter’s lost  and found  lap  top  till he won the presidential election of 2020 . Now it has been revealed that these classified documents issue was  discovered by his lawyers on the eve of the mid term elections of last November  2022  and again,   like Hunter’s lap top was   covered  up  till  now after   mid term  elections . Now that the Republicans   have managed to elect their Speaker Kevin Macarthy   after  15 historic vote  attempts  recently ,   there is no doubt  that  they have enough malice or ammunition to bury if not impeach Biden like the Democrats used their House majority  to impeach  Donald  Trump  who  was saved by the  Republican majority in the US senate .  A  similar fate awaits Biden  most  ominously and I hold either side responsible for the irresponsible and wild language they have  been  using in exposing their differences and disagreements in recent times in their  very divided presidential system of checks and balances .

    In  the publication of his biography called SPARE  it  is clear that Diana’s second and junior son  Harry  is holding his   Father the king as  well as his brother and grand parents   responsible  for the sad life his mother lived which led to her death in a tragic motor accident in France . He  also  holds the press especially the paparazzi  responsible  for the way they literally  chased his mother to a tragic death .  But  he will  not be the first  prince to turn on the monarchy because of a woman he loves . The brother of the dead queen’s father left the throne for a thrice divorced American lady . Harry’s  wife too is American and has been divorced too . Part  of his grudge against his royal  family  appears  to be that he sees himself as a spare  tyre as  he cannot become king like his senior brother  would be later . Anyway  his main   problem   to me  ,  in   his  vast array of delusive  misuse of language in  the  throes of romance with   a  vain American actress  ,  is  the verbal  suicide  he committed by   making a mockery of the way he killed many Talibans  like sport in Afghanistan . With that alone his mouth and language has put his life , his security and   that  of his family  in unprecedented danger . He  can to a large extent  survive  the   guided     hostility    and   aloofness  of a British  monarchy that  the populace  regard jealously    as the fulcrum of British  political  stability but  he  needs  to fortify  himself  against  a vengeful   Taliban which has a bloody reputation  for claiming its  pound of flesh  against even innocent civilians ,  not to talk of a prince making fun of how he has killed their kith and kin in Afghanistan.

  • Candor, trust and leadership

    Candor, trust and leadership

    The death of a  rare specie of humanity , a  retired Pope  and the unprecedented burial  by his successor  also  a Pope thrill  my imagination today for the  equally unusual reason that even though I  am  not a Catholic I   normally  refer to the deceased Pope  in private as  ‘my Pope ‘ . Before you  think that I am  perhaps being more catholic than the Pope let  me tell you that more unusual  things happened locally and globally this last week  that we will digest together today in the new year 2023 . Let  me therefore first of all wish my  readers a happy and prosperous new year and a peaceful and beneficial election  for  Nigerians as 2023 is the long awaited election  year    of a new president for our nation .

    Aside  from the death of  ‘ my  Pope ‘ , Pope Benedict XVI ,real name Joseph Ratzinger , the German Pope who died at age 95 ,  there  are other issues that defy history and beat the imagination in the world at large this week . First  is the rancor in the US legislature over the election of a Speaker that has taken voting six times without a winner which is a classic case of the minority taking  the majority hostage or to ransom  as the saying goes . The  last time this   happened  was 100  years ago in 1923  . Next  is  the news that a former Nigerian Head  of state has endorsed a presidential candidate for this February 2023 presidential election outside the candidates of the two  main parties namely  the APC and the PDP . The  third is the campaign news on the APC Presidential   campaign trail  in Kano that the party will ,  if it wins ,    as  expected ,   establish   ‘ the proposed  Kano Economic City  because  Kano  is the hub of  Nigeria ‘

     Let  me now dissect these unusual situations in terms of candor , trust  and leadership which is the topic of the day  starting again with ‘ my Pope’ .I  first saw the late Pope Benedict XV  on   TV I when he preached at the funeral of the late John Paul 11 at the Vatican and was impressed with his homily and thought he could become the next Pope  , which he did  at  the conclave . I later read a book on him with his name as title and fell literally in love with his life and career hence the nick name ‘ my Pope ‘ Now my Pope is dead and now buried  after his retirement . I was shocked when he retired but I knew the pressure he was under . Pedophilia  dogged his papacy and he was vilified in the west especially  the US for his firm stand on celibacy , sexuality and gender issues . He stood firm as the think thank  of the John Paul 11 papacy and head of  the Catholic Curia and insisted that morality is not a fashion changing with the times even though justice should not be relegated to the background . He was blamed for the disgraceful sexual abuse of priests in his time and under his control . In defence he attributed the social and religious cancer to the wild life of youths in the eighties when he said morality really broke down leading to the rise of pedophilia and homosexual  clubs  even  in  monasteries . A measure of the venom he faced and how he fared  against   till     he  retired ,  can  be seen in the recent news  that the US Transport Secretary a man travelled in an official plane with  his husband a man too . The other news  that would have been most unpalatable to my Pope and my self too was another news picture of the just released US  basket ball player a lady kissing  her wife another lady . Such  issues were what my Pope tried to prevent and obviously lost to powerful interests  groups especially in the present US government  . He  was to be disgraced out of office  but   he eluded his assailants with his great erudition   and   intellectual   sagacity in referring to history and the retirement of a Pope 600 years ago  and  invoking  the simpler   yoke  of retirement albeit  unthinkable till  then  . May  the soul  of ‘ my Pope ‘ rest  in perfect peace Amen .

     The   US Speaker election debacle is our next discussion  . The  presumed candidate of the Republicans  Kevin Macarthy has had over 200  votes six times against 20  votes in his party yet is not electable because he  need  218  votes from his  party to be elected Speaker . Those against him  , a minority of 20 do not trust  him to carry through the agenda of their idol Donald Trump  when he becomes Speaker because he had criticized Trump in the past .  Yet   Trump  too has asked that Macarthy  be endorsed but the rebels against  his election have not budged but  have  just thrown other candidates into the foray . Obviously with regard to their known loyalty to Trump  they are showing that they are getting more catholic than the Pope .Some  have said this is democracy at play but there should be order in any democracy and party discipline  should not be thrown overboard in making a point  . Even  though it was wrong of Marcarthy  to have seized the Speaker’s  office without  being elected on the floor of the house,  his ouster after six failed votes     cannot augur well  for the future of the Republicans as an organized and reliable  political force in US politics and democracy as we know it today

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    Another   surprise    on the  issues   locally is the call on Nigerian  youths by OBJ  to  literally take up arms and liberate themselves from the present Nigerian leadership . That  to me is belated and is like arousing an  insurrection like Trump  was accused of on Jan 6 2021 in  the US . OBJ has always said his mind and I admire his candor but he lacks the trust to make the call because he was a great part of the leadership he now rebukes . Any way his choice has no chance in the present political dispensation and it is like he is trying to close the stable doors after the horses have bolted .  I expect  a straight fight between the ruling APC and PDP presidential candidates  next month  . OBJ’s call is therefore a distraction and an  extravagant one at that . He  has in the past made great relevant calls fearlessly and at great cost to his life as with Abacha . This time however the die is cast on the showdown between the two main parties and OBJ’s now diminished   whimper  can be safely ignored . 

    It  is amazing however that the Governor of Rivers state Nyesome Wike  has endorsed the OBJ  condemnation of his party’s presidential candidate Abubakar Atiku by saying  that some thing is wrong if your principal cannot endorse you . That however is not unusual in Africa . In Ghana’s last presidential election the former VP  a   presidential  aspirant  , was not endorsed by his boss the president but he won . Wike’s  point is however important in that he is still a member of the same party with Atiku and he is campaigning against him and he is even talking of ceding his part of the country to another party in the presidential election next month .  Like I  said before it appears that the PDP  has gone to sleep in a house  with a thatched roof  and  the   roof  is on fire in this 2023  presidential election

    Compare  this with the campaign claims and points  of the APC presidential candidate in the city of Kano where the turn out was stupendous and amazing according to reports . The presidential candidate of the APC  the Jagaban Bola Ahmed Tinubu  promised to make Nigeria  safer and better for all Nigerians and he sounded credible and believable because of his track record in Lagos the commercial  capital of Nigeria under great stress from that role given that all Nigerians are literally flocking  to Lagos and literally choking  the traffic and free movement   of the  masses  and vehicles in the city . It  was cheering therefore to hear that the APC presidential running mate Kashim Shettima   while identifying Kano as  ‘ ‘the hub of Northern politics and a [point of political direction  ‘ also  noted that Kano will  become ‘ the hub of Nigeria  when the proposed Kano Economic City is created after the election ‘ That to  me is candor in election promises because I know some mischief makers will want to use that promise to turn the south against the North .  Campaign promises are meant to be kept and the APC is  looking forward in my view to  decongest Lagos from its port  congestion ,    massive  trailers albatross and nuisance to decent living and that is a welcome development and  a delightful    prospect   in my view .That  certainly rhymes  with the Jagaban’s  promise to make life better for all Nigerians and especially those of us living in Lagos  when he becomes president as expected next month .  A  word  is enough for  the wise .

  • 2022 Man of the Year: ‘A three in one’

    2022 Man of the Year: ‘A three in one’

    It  is not always  the case  that the last day of the year falls on a day  that this column comes out and that is why feel delighted that I am  choosing my Man of the year really at the very end of the year 2022  this  Saturday .  It  has indeed been an  historic year ,  especially with the death of the Queen and the emergence of a new King in England the former colonial  power that once bestrode Nigeria like  a Colossus as Cassius spoke about  Julius Caesar in Shakespeare’s  epic play of  that name .  It was the year of the most unexpected but  bloody  Russian Invasion of Ukraine  for which Time Magazine has already chosen the president of Ukraine Zelensky as its Man  of the Year  for  its  cover , although I find it difficult to understand  how a leader still at war is being honored for a victory or  war that is still work in progress and a very unpredictable one at that too  . It  was a year of presidential primaries and the emergence of aspirants as well  as  the setting of the stage for Nigeria’s much expected 2023 presidential elections which  so far has lived up to its billing in terms of expectations of voters  ,  the controversial nature and idiosyncrasies  of Nigerian politics  ,  its  volatile   political terrain and  its  mercurial  ,   highly  flamboyant   political  class and leadership .

    I follow the well known dictum of Time magazine in choosing my Man of the Year . That  usually is to pick someone who  has influenced world event in that year for good or bad  . I  however find it difficult as I have  done in recent years to pick just one candidate , hence my addendum  to  the headline today of – ‘ A three in one’  which  is explicit  enough  .  I have taken the liberty to pick a leader who has influenced global affairs in that vein , as well as a leader from the Nigerian environment as charity should indeed begin at  home .  I  have ended up with  the choice   of  a  brainy and most  successful innovator who  has seized   global technology  literally  to show that     real  power , democratic  or not ,  flow    not mainly    from the ballot boxes , the wishes of the masses , or violently  from the barrel  of gun,   but  that technology can  be used or misused for the self interest of owners of new technologies as well as governments  ,  and   as their paraphernalia  and  accouterments  of office in the pursuit   of political  power.

    In  effect  then,  my  ‘Three in one ‘ Man  of the Year are Joe Biden , the 46th president of the USA , the presidential candidate of the APC for the 2023 presidential election  in Nigeria  ,   Jagaban Bola Ahmed Tinubu , and ,  Elon Musk  , the new owner of Twitter who has just released the Twitter Files in the best tradition of the Deep Throat of the Watergate Scandal   that destroyed the Richard Nixon presidency in 1974 . These  are leaders who in the last year have shown  unique  boldness , creativity and tenacity in achieving the goals and objectives for which they  have in  a trio of  brilliance  ,  like  stars   in their various milieu      been   chosen  ,   for   their   dogged  pursuit of the collective good of their various societies without counting the cost  or countenancing whose ox is gored .Their  opponents may  not see the virtues I will  highlight in making them a three in one Man of the Year .  That  really  is the funeral  of such opponents . My reason   for  picking each one is  my  duty to narrate  today as I doff  my hat  in   sincere admiration for the roles they have played in deserving this 2022 Man of the Year Award  . I  will  do this first in a single sentence and then go on to highlight the nitty gritty of their achievements  in 2022 for  good,  while leaving it to their opponents to fashion our a counter argument to my observations and clear  admiration  of their roles .

    First , with Joe Biden the American president . At  90 , he can claim to have used  big  government  expenditure to cushion the grim deprivation of the covid pandemic  to bring  about  the biggest welfare package for social welfare and infrastructure to the American  people especially in terms of diversity ,   inclusion   and equality  in the midst  of high  inflation . With  the Jagaban  he has shown that old wine taste    better  even   in Nigerian  politics  with the level of acceptability he has garnered all over the nation in his Meet the People tours while harvesting the empathy of his indignant outburst on the eve of his party’s primary that it is his turn to lead both party and nation .  With Elon Musk  he has shown that he can come down to  earth from   the cloudy skies  of   space  , satellites    and electric cars and use    his   unprecedented wealth to save  democracy and freedom from the clutches of big government  and big tech companies   in order  to create transparency and fairness in public discourse and freedom of speech  in   not only his nation but the world at large .  Now  let me put flesh on the bare skeleton of my single sentences on  this trio of distinguished leaders for  the  2022 Man  of the Year Award .

    Again , I go back to Joe Biden , the gerontocratic’ old man of the sea ‘of American politics who  served as representative  of his state Delaware  for 47 years before being elected   president during covid when he defeated Donald Trump in what Trump  has dubbed the  ‘stolen presidential election of 2020 ‘.   In spite of Trump’s disparagement  of the integrity of his election,  Biden has remained unperturbed and has kept a cool   head confident that his party ,  against all odds ,  would do well  in the 2022 mid term  elections and he was proven right . He  has   shown in 2022 that nothing can derail  him from fulfilling  his election promises on climate change , promotion of minority interests like the woke culture and gender transformation which as an African I really do not buy . But then ,  Biden is a Catholic and is  firmly for the right of abortion  for women which  his church condemns .  He has  shown clearly that he is  an old fox set in his ways   and  even though he played second fiddle to a younger president for 8 years in  Barak  Obama , he has shown that  he believes far more in terms of action for  a strong welfare state such that his Republican opponents now fearfully accuse him of  turning hitherto free market US into  a socialist  state .  In action the 46th US president has shown that he is a pragmatist to the core and campaign promises are to be kept and seen to have been kept by elected leaders in a democracy . He  has my salute on that score for 2023 .

    Now  we go to the Jagaban and his bid for the presidency of Nigeria under the auspices of his   party  the ruling APC .  His  main rival is   from  the party of the   last president in power before the present  incumbent   . This week the incumbent president declared that it is his duty to campaign for the  Jagaban which  to me is a tautology because that is to be expected   given that they are  both  from the same party . However  given the context of the Emi Lokan  outburst  on the eve  of the party’s presidential primaries this year , the incumbent president was trying to avoid any ambiguity on his solidarity   with , and loyalty to his party’s chosen presidential candidate hence his declaration   to campaign fully for the Jagaban .This same week it was reported that former president Goodluck Jonathan supporters are to campaign for the Jagaban in the SE and SS of Nigeria . More importantly five PDP governors hostile to the party’s candidate Abubakar Atiku  are said to be flirting with the Jagaban at a meeting in London . With  the party of his main rival at daggers drawn with its governors it is apparent that the Jagaban is the man to beat in this coming 2023 presidential election .He  has shown immense guts , determination and commitment to his objective of claiming the presidency  in 2023 and again  I claim it for him that truly it is his deserved turn .Really his campaign slogan should be Emi Lokan translated into all Nigerian languages . I wish him well .

    On  Elon Musk  it is apparent that the Twitter Files may  turn out to be the Watergate scandal   or the Achilles   heel  of the Biden presidency in the US . This  is because the files have shown that both the FBI and Twitter management then  ,controlled and promoted the Biden presidential campaign at the expense of his opponent then .In addition ,  the suppression of revelation of the contents of the laptop of Biden’s son Hunter on the eve  of Joe Biden’s election as president cast aspersion on the integrity of that election  as well   as the impartiality  of the FBI in the performance of its public and security  functions in the last presidential elections . With  the Republicans in control of the US House of Reps  in 2023  it is apparent  that the Biden presidency is about to learn that like Macbeth   he  has ‘ murdered sleep ‘ and like Macbeth would ‘ sleep no more ‘ That  grim prospect is due to Elon Musk’s   propitious and timely acquisition of Twitter . Only a man of the caliber of Musk can  have the foresight , the  mettle and means to acquire Twitter at this time .  Musk  has been the avenging angel of free speech and transparency in US  democracy in 2022 .  He  has used his  unique brain and wealth for democracy  this year like   no other man in this world . He  has my unbridled admiration and I say kudos to a great man and Greetings ! .

  • Battles, real and imagined

    Battles, real and imagined

    THE topic of today is a longer one   but  has been reduced to three words for the sake of brevity . It really should have been’  Battles , Real and Imagined Past  and   Present  ‘   and it is in that spirit  that we embark on today’s journey of analysis as usual . Life itself is a battle for both individuals and sovereign nations and it is from both entities that we draw  our inspiration today . The long queues at  our petrol stations nation wide at a unique  festive season of  Xmas that we  all  look  forward to enjoy is a grim battle for many Nigerians especially  those who  travel  to their hometowns to meet  loved ones to enjoy the Yule tide season . We  all saw  the mammoth crowd at Buenos Aires ,  the capital of Argentina  that welcomed the new  2022 World Champions Argentina ably led by their indefatigable and brilliant   soccer   hero and warrior  Lionel  Messi  and you  know that Argentina has won a great battle that is worthy of our attention today . Ukraine’s President Zelensky visited  the US   Congress to show appreciation just  as  Russia warned ominously that the US  should stop giving military aid to Ukraine .While  that was going on you can imagine  the mood of the immediate  past US president on the accolade  being poured on the Ukrainian president with whom he had a conversation during his tenure  that became  a subject  of an abortive impeachment  in which  only the US  Senate voted to stop  his impeachment . These  then are the many battles that we will ruminate over  today   in all  their ramifications .

    We  start with  the  battle  to get fuel  to move around in our many  towns and cities in Nigeria and it is a serious embarrassing battle . Locomotion  and transportation    are  essential part of human existence  and  and   both should be affordable as freedom of movement  and  association  is  an essential   part of   fundamental human rights . Lack  of fuel cruelly curtails the right of movement  of  citizens and in a democracy like ours it is like a violation  of the constitutional rights of   all  Nigerians  wherever they may be  .  Coming at election and campaign  time when  politicians canvass  for votes , non availability of fuel  for people  to move around can generate  hostility of the electorate against  political actors seeking  the votes of the populace in  their bid for power . Those in power or  authority  must  be seen to have compassion  and empathy for those whose votes they seek and be seen to be responsive to the needs of those they seek to rule and lead . It is a basic   fact  of life and the beauty of democracy or the joy of politicians    should  be  to  minimize the misery  of those they lead such that life is not a  daily  battle of survival and agony  in order to  move about and enjoy the basic things of life especially  at a festive season like Christmas .’

    We  now look at the won battle of Lionel Messi   the  Argentine soccer  super star on the  classy   soccer fields of Qatar in the last  2022  World Cup    . The  world rose in sympathy and empathy for the long suffering Argentine soccer  star  to get his most elusive trophy in spite of a sterling array  of soccer accolades in his custody except the most  cherished FIFA  World Cup medal . Messi  at the last World Cup  was a lesson in leadership and fought  like a warrior  born to win this time around and he won the battle decisively both for himself and  his very   grateful  nation . An Argentine fan while celebrating tearfully lamented that Argentines are  used  to poverty and never getting things easily . The mettle and composure of Messi on the battle field   of Qatar   showed that and more . It  makes one to remember Shakespeare’s   timeless piece that says’ Sweet are  the uses of adversity , which like the toad , ugly and venomous bears yet  a precious  jewel on its head .’  I most heartily  congratulate Messi  and Argentina  for  a well  deserved  victory  in a well  fought battle  . Their victory is a study in tenacity  and sheer  forbearance .

    We  go next  to the sovereign war  between Ukraine and Russia in which Russia is an aggressor but in which the US  claims it is not at war with Russia ,  while  it     is financing the   war effort of the Ukrainians massively . The Ukrainian  president , Zelensky  has claimed at the US Congress that US  financial  support for Ukraine is not charity but an investment in global  security , an argument that will not be palatable to Russia and Republicans in the US led by former President Donald Trump . It is timely enough that Zelensky has visited the US before the Republicans take control of the House  of Representatives early in the new year . This  is because the Hunter Biden suppressed lap top  contents will take the front burner ,  as well as the connections    the  current president of the US had with a Ukrainian president while Joe Biden was the US Vice President under Barak  Obama .  Predictably    next year   many House Committees  headed by Republicans will  be after Biden and  his son Hunter not only on the controversial contents of the lost lap top  but also with the security implications of Hunter Biden’s  collaboration  with Chinese  businessmen   with  obvious  links to  the ruling Chinese Communist Party   which is a declared  enemy  of the US . Biden , after the euphoria  of parting Zelensky in the back so profusely at his last victorious visit to the US Congress  should  prepare  himself  for the retaliation of Republicans  in the House  similar to  what Trump  endured because of a single telecon  with the now battle  ready Zelensky given a hero’s welcome by the US president  and Congress this last week . Definitely  what goes up must come down and Biden should be battle  ready          to face his interrogators in the US House over his past  shady  deals with Ukraine and the pernicious contents of his son’s lost lap top  ,now blown open most unexpectedly by   Elon Musk’s new telecom acquisition  Twitter .

    Next we  look at the  context  of Russia’s warning to the US on arming Ukraine  so massively  while maintaining and increasing  sanctions against   the Russian aggressor . The attitude of the US against Russia is  that  of a  superior force and   the contempt  is apparent that there is nothing Russia can do . Already Russia has lost face because it  seems to be losing the war . But the Russian leader has shown in Crimea in 2014 and in Ukraine 10 months ago  that he can catch the world pants down to get his way . The US is  well   warned to make haste  slowly  in its blind support for Ukraine because of the simple reason that Russia under Putin will not lose this war without  getting real nasty and that is using the nuclear option .’ Apres moi la deluge ‘ is a French phrase which is like a scotched earth military strategy . It was Attila the Hun  who when he attacked Rome boasted that ‘ where I   have passed , the grass will  not grow again . ‘ Putin  should not be made the reincarnation of Attila  in our present age  by the US on this  raging battle    in  Ukraine .

  • Civilisation, racism and soccer

    Civilisation, racism and soccer

    The  new owner of Tech giant Twitter ,  the billionaire   Elon Musk  ,   said recently that he is a  ‘free speech absolutist ‘ and  that   he bought Twitter to save civilization . He  has since made some revelations  on mass  and grave censorship ,  in the ‘Twitter files ‘ containing disturbing information on how the management of Twitter before  his purchase ,  cancelled out users  of Twitter  who  did not share their view points on many issues .Coming at a time when the ‘woke ‘  and ‘ cancel’ culture  that says it is fighting for blacks against discrimination  and racism  in the US  and   is about to rewrite history in the process  , Elon Musk ‘s self chosen role as a defender of   free speech  in his nation could not have come at a better time . This has been given some impetus by the World Cup in Quatar which  was  criticised  by some powerful nations on many scores because   the host nation did not allow protests on human  rights or display of LGBTQ  rights  in the 2022  World   because Quatar is Islamic and is against gay rights in any form not to talk of same sex marriage,  just ratified in the US which  calls itself  ‘God’s own country .Earlier  the President of FIFA  Gianni  Infantino  ,  had   told western nations  who value gay rights to leave such values at home and play football in  a host  nation that does   not share  such  values . The fact that the Final of the 2022 World Cup  is being played  tomorrow  between an all white Argentina team and an almost  entirely black French team which  is the defending champion makes one to wonder which  civilization we are talking about and whether Elon Musk’s concept  of  free speech   agrees with the rest of the world  in terms  of racism , discrimination  and the   freedom of speech  and association which  are the hallmark of any democracy .

    Today  we look at the concept  of civilization  in many scenarios especially with the progress of the many nations that participated in this last World  Cup in terms of their history and cultural  evolution .Colonialism certainly played a part with the emergence of mainly black          players for an European nation like France . Does that mean that there is no racism in France ? Are  those who now say in the ‘woke ‘ culture that whites in the US should pay  for the woes they inflicted on slaves who were  mainly black  on the right track ?And  is it right to rewrite history and call someone like Winston Churchill  a racist because he  called India’s Independence leader Mahatma Ghandi a half naked barbarian because of the manner of dressing of the much respected leader ? At  the Quatar  World Cup the FIFA president  Gianni Infantino  was isolated  by EU nations ostensibly because of his insistence on football  over gay  rights championed by Europe and  is that right for democracy and  does  it not show intolerance for other peoples culture ?

    It is our duty today to show how Elon Musk  born in apartheid  S Africa  is now the champion of free speech in  a  USA that has forgotten about the  achievements of Martin Luther King  who had a public holiday in the same US named after him because of his fight against racism in the US . We  shall highlight why some former colonial powers did not have the goodwill of soccer fans because of their past  colonial exploitations of their colonies . We shall  look at the  merit approach  that made France win the World Cup in 1998 and is about to repeat the same feat  in Quatar  and wonder whether the same approach justifies the much maligned but now still  very much  on course Muslim Muslim ticket  of the APC presidential ticket of the Jagaban  and Shetima of the APC for  the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria .

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    It  is my belief that Elon Musk’s early experience with apartheid in S  Africa makes  him  eminently qualified to take on the establishment in the US especially with the discrimination against Donald Trump by the Democrats and the FBI , the Department of Justice over censorship and the blackout on the contents of Hunter Biden’s  laptop  that  is still  not being covered on any notable scale by CNN and  other anti Trump  media in the US .Elon Musk’s   concept of civilization tallies with that of civilization in Nigeria which  does not recognize gay  right like Quatar  but  Musk  will  be cancelled if he ever expresses  such view in the present cultural climate in the US . Part of Elon Musk  concern on civilization would  include concern on the present favorable mood  towards gender transformation for young people which      many  progressives in the US  see as a right for young  people that should not be allowed to be scrapped like the US Supreme court  did  recently  when it banned abortion by asking  states to decide through their legislature on the matter . Like  I noted before ,  Musk must  be aghast at the Critical  Race  Theory  being taught in some schools that white kids must make amends for treatment of slaves during slave trade  as whites were the oppressors but again Musk  must  be careful  so that   his space business and Teslar his profitable electric car  business are   not  black balled  or cancelled  in the US .

    With regard to the former colonial powers like Netherlands , England ,and  France  ,the football field in Quatar became a  very level  playing field and they were all eliminated except France with its array of black footballers . Even  the soccer    majesty  of Argentina was ruptured by Saudi Arabia  in the opening game  before the wizardry of Lionel  Messi  came to  the  rescue to make them reach the final  That  means the civilization of soccer at present has no respect  for past glories . Japan , and  S KOREA showed this in their performance  as they progressed before being eliminated .  More  importantly  Morocco almost  made the impossible possible with bold way it almost dethroned France its former colonial master . All  the same a new hierarchy of soccer super nations  has come into being and I had wanted   Morocco    to  show that a nation outside the royalty of soccer  dominated  by Latin America and Europe can win the World Cup    but the speed and brilliance of Mbappe  made that impossible for the Moroccans  to  become  the first Arab nation to win a competition hosted by  a Middle East and Muslim nation .

    France’s   semi final match which she  won against  Morocco must  have created  some  security  worry  for the French authorities and their president and it is no wonder that he was at the dressing room to celebrate the victory  over  Morocco with the French team made up mostly of black stars . Morocco is Islamic and France has the largest population in Europe of Muslims . I wonder where their  loyalty was during the match . France is anti gay and holds the same values with many EU nations on gay  rights and same sex  marriage and France protested on the host  nation’s approach to same sex marriage but  has played football well  to reach the finals instead of poke nosing into other nations’  culture and way  of life . Any   way the French  are  open minded enough to allow that even  their entire  soccer team  can be made up of the black  color regardless of whether they  are Muslim or  not . That  is the message for those who  doubt the  acceptability of the Muslim Muslim  presidential ticket of the APC . Nothing succeeds like merit and performance . That  is the  civilization   and  way of   life   of the French in politics and soccer . It  is a way of life worth cultivating in our own Nigeria too .