Like in many other states across the country, gubernatorial election will take place on 11 March 2023, in Ogun state. Across the state, the forthcoming election is being discussed just as governorship aspirants are daily signifying there interest in the job on the platforms of the various political parties, especially the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Incumbent APC governor, Dapo Abiodun, who is eligible to seek a second term in office, is yet to publicly declare his interest in the race.
Following the Saturday, October 16, 2021 victory of his loyalists at the state congress of the ruling APC in the state, Abiodun has been strengthening his hold on the structure of the party across the state. A factional group within the party, loyal to his predecessor in office, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, who currently represents Ogun Central in the upper chamber of the National Assembly, has been at loggerheads with the governor’s group.
Although, there were parallel state congresses organised by loyalists of Amosun, the leadership of the APC’s Caretaker/Extraordinary Convention Planning Committee (CECPC) recognized the officials produced by the governor’s camp, which it sent representatives to supervise and which was monitored by officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). That sealed the fate of Amosun and his supporters as far as the party structures are concerned.
But the victory of the governor’s camp renewed the face-off between him and Amosun. Feelers from the Senator’s camp suggest that he is determined to stop the governor’s second term bid at all cost come 2023. “Amosun is set to stop Abiodun from getting a second term despite the loss of the party structure to the governor. He will ensure Abiodun is not unopposed during the APC primary election. And there are fears that his supporters may also work against the APC should the governor emerge as candidate,” a source said.
That is the scenario in the ruling party as at today. Perhaps due to the uncertainties and the intrigues currently playing out, only one chieftain of the party has signified interest in the APC gubernatorial ticket till date while supporters of Governor Abiodun insist that he will declare his desire for a second term at the appropriate time. Within the camp of Senator Ibikunle Amosun, not less than two names are being bandied as possible governorship aspirants but none of them have come out to openly join the race.
Within the opposition PDP, the situation appears a little clearer. The hitherto troubled party has found a way round the intractable crisis that threatened its very existence since 20011. The party now has one state executive committee, as against the multiple factional leaderships it paraded since 2011. But it is obvious that the contest for the PDP governorship ticket will not be without intrigues. Already, not less than three chieftains of the party have indicated interest in the ticket.
The State Chairman, Sikirullahi Ogundele, the PDP would produce the next governor of Ogun State in 2023. He told the state Governor Abiodun and the APC to prepare to leave the government for the PDP in 2023. This is just as stakeholders of the party continue to insist on a free and fair primary election amidst fear that the Ogundele-led state executive committee plans to hand over the ticket to one of the aspirants on a platter of gold.
APC
So far, only Mrs Modele Sarafa-Yusuf, a former Special Adviser on Communication to Governor Abiodun, has indicated interest to contest under the platform of the APC. Addressing newsmen after her declaration, she said she is in the race to encourage other women in politics to make their intention known by declaring for various political positions. “I want to be a transformative and inclusive leader and to make Ogun the state of choice for people to live, work, and play because of the educational, economic, and cultural opportunities; safety, livability, vibrancy, and connectedness. I’m not running because I’m a woman, I’m running because I’m capable and because I know I can do the job,” she said.
But analysts say the ace broadcaster may not go all the way in the race as she does not have the political structure and deep pocket required for the governorship contest, especially the general election. “I think Sarafa-Yusuf is merely out to make a point. Once she has done that, she is most likely to leave the race for the real contenders. Her move is being applauded by women within and outside the state,” an official of the party said.
Although Governor Abiodun who enjoys the constitutional right to seek another term of four years in office, is yet to signify interest, close aides told The Nation that the governor will be seeking another term in office. “Given his sterling performance and the fact that much work remains to be done in the quest to make Ogun the state we desire, Dapo Abiodun will seek another term in office,” one of the governor’s Special Advisers said on Thursday.
The Ogun State chapter of the ruling APC recently said that the people of the state will determine the second term of Governor Dapo Abiodun. “For about three years now, Prince Dapo Abiodun has been solely preoccupied with building enduring infrastructures, expanding the democratic space and entrenching sustainable development in Ogun State; so much to the admiration of all discerning citizens, residents and visitors to the state. Ogun State people will determine the governor’s second term. His works speak for him,” Tunde Oladunjoye, APC spokesperson in the state, said.
Though he is yet to declare his next political move, Adekunle Akinlade, former House of Representatives member for Egbado South/Ipokia and 2019 Allied Peoples Movement (APM) gubernatorial candidate, is also being expected to throw his hat into the contest on the platform of the APC. The youthful politician contested the primary election of the party against the incumbent governor in 2019 but lost. He enjoyed the support of Senator Amosun then. He is still an avowed loyalist of the former governor but it is not clear if Amosun will be backing Akinlade for the 2023 race.
Another ally of Senator Amosun’s, Ramoni Olalekan Mustapha, the Senator representing Ogun East in the national assembly, according to party sources, is discreetly preparing to challenge Governor Abiodun at the APC primary election. Should Mustapha enter the race with the support of Amosun, analysts say the contest will be a keen one between the Senator and the Governor. Mustapha, a renowned grassroots mobiliser, is from the same Ogun East zone as the governor.
PDP
For now, three chieftains of the PDP are slugging it out for the ticket of the opposition party. And all the three have obtained the nomination form of the party ahead of the primary election. Former member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Ladipupo Adebutu stormed the national secretariat of the party in Abuja along with his supporters to pick the forms, saying afterwards that if the primary election of the party is conducted in a free and fair manner, he will be the candidate to beat.
Adebutu, the main financier of the PDP in Ogun state following the death of Senator Buruji Kashamu, enjoys the support of the leadership of the party in the state. An ally of former governor Ayo Fayose of Ekiti state, he is the leading aspirant in the race for the ticket. His state wide structure and deep pocket position him as the candidate to beat in the race. Barring an unforeseen surprise, he will effortlessly win the contest among the current contenders.
Last Monday, Segun Sowunmi, Atiku Abubakar 2019 presidential campaign spokesman, picked the nomination form to challenge Adebutu for the PDP ticket. He was accompanied to the PDP National Secretariat by a crowd of party chieftains and loyalists, who insisted that it was time to redefine governance in Ogun State, noting that in Showunmi, they had seen a window through which the status quo could be changed effectively. But analysts say beyond his Abeokuta, Ogun state, base, Showunmi may not pull enough cloud and clout to win the ticket.
Completing the numbers of PDP aspirants still in the race, Special adviser to Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai on Investment Promotion, Jimi Lawal, obtained the PDP nomination form to contest for governor in his native Ogun State. Lawal, an erstwhile APC chieftain picked up his nomination forms on Thursday in Abuja. The former managing director of defunct Alpha Merchant bank sought governorship ticket of the APC in 2019 but lost to incumbent Dapo Abiodu