Since the beginning of his presidency, Xi Jinping, China’s president, has not failed to use moments of national importance to reiterate his commitment to the realisation of the ‘Chinese dream’. Last week’s visit to Hong Kong, his first trip outside mainland China since January 2020, was perhaps seen as another opportunity to demonstrate his commitment to the great rejuvenation of China. In spite of the rumours of a declining health, his country’s continued strict national Covid-19 policy, and a breakout of the Omicron variant in Hong Kong, the Chinese president made sure he participated in the celebrations that marked 25 years since Britain handed over the city to China.
The celebrations in Hong Kong also marked the transition from Carrie Lam’s turbulent tenure as Chief Executive. Her time as Hong Kong’s leader witnessed a more assertive China and the steady erosion of democratic freedoms. The clearest example is the absence of protests in this year’s handover anniversary. It had become a tradition for the people in Hong Kong to engage in protests to mark the anniversary of the handover, but this year, activists were banned from protesting and there were restrictions on which media outlets could cover the celebrations. China is remaking Hong Kong in its own image.
When Britain ended its colonial rule over Hong Kong in 1997, it was expected that the city would continue to operate with a high degree of autonomy for the next 50 years. The Sino-British Joint Declaration signed in 1984 granted Hong Kong a special administrative status and entrenched the principle of “one country, two systems”. Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, there has been a consistent attempt to move away from that principle in practice, if not in rhetoric. But even a shift in rhetoric seems underway now. New textbooks being introduced in schools in Hong Kong deny that the city was ever a British Colony. The narrative that China endorses is that the city was always a part of China and therefore only under foreign occupation between 1841 and 1997.
In several speeches since 2013, Xi Jinping has talked about “wiping out the humiliation of the Chinese nation for centuries.” The century of humiliation refers to the 100 years of international intervention in China that precipitated the fall of the Qing dynasty where western powers and Japan imposed their will on the country, compelled it to sign several unequal treaties, and forced it to cede territories like Hong Kong. For China’s rejuvenation to be complete, Xi Jinping believes it has to exercise effective control over territories like Hong Kong and Taiwan. This is where Xi Jinping’s dream turns into the West’s nightmare.
Taiwan has been governed independently since the Chinese Civil War ended in 1949 with the victory of the Communists and the retreat of the Nationalists to the island of Taiwan. For decades, the US continued to recognise the Republic of China (Taiwan) instead of the communist government in mainland China. That changed in 1979 when Jimmy Carter’s government severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan in the hope that it could deepen economic cooperation with the communists.
The normalisation of diplomatic relations with mainland China meant that the US had to abandon its mutual defense treaty with Taiwan. In response, the US congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) which promised continued support for Taiwan, including the mandatory sales of weapons to aid Taiwan’s self-defence. It also clearly stated that attempts to force the reunification Taiwan by non-peaceful means would be considered a threat to the interests of the United States. While not a full security guarantee, leaving open the possibility of coming to the aid of Taiwan in the event of an attack created a strategic ambiguity that served to curtail the possible excesses of Taiwan but also deter the aggression of China.
Although the policy of strategic ambiguity has been successful in keeping the status quo in Taiwan for several decades, it appears it is now beginning to fail. Xi Jinping ties the reunification of Taiwan with his agenda of bringing about the great rejuvenation of China. In 2017, he stated that “complete national reunification is an inevitable requirement for realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” But make no mistake about it, this is also about cementing Xi Jinping’s legacy. While his efforts in Hong Kong have been largely rewarded, Taiwan remains the sore point. This is why he is willing to force the issue. He understands that there is no appetite for peaceful reunification among Taiwanese and the only choice might be to compel it to integrate. Since Biden took office, China has violated Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) more than 1400 times.
President Biden is talking tough talk over China’s aggression, but this only escalates the issue. Biden did not mince words when he was asked what the US’s response would be if China acted in a similar fashion to Russia. He said the US would intervene if Taiwan is invaded. His willingness to abandon the policy of strategic ambiguity has only ratcheted up tensions. Unsurprisingly, China response was that it would fight to the end if Taiwan ceded from it.
Taiwan is of strategic importance to the US. Apart from navigational access—it lies in the middle of the first island chain that stretches between allies such as Japan and Philippines—it is also the world’s top manufacturer of semiconductor chips. These chips are essential for advanced weapons technology, electronics, vehicles, and next generation artificial intelligence. It is in the US’s interest to keep Taiwan close, but at what cost?
It is likely the case that China has been emboldened by Russia’s actions in Ukraine. It was also probably taking its lesson notes, and may have better understood the pitfalls to avoid if war breaks out. Unlike Russia, China is an integral part of world economy. Isolating and sanctioning it may prove very difficult without torpedoing the global economy. Through its Belt and Road initiative, China has bought itself friends—even if in many cases, they are reluctant ones.
The nightmare for the west is that Xi Jinping is bent on reunification, but Taiwan will not peacefully waltz into China’s arms. He is therefore likely to use force as he gets more desperate to actualise his goals. Biden’s commitment to Taiwan will be tested soon, and what happens then? If the US intervenes, a conflict between the US and China would ensue. That would be an apocalyptic war. If the US stands aside, it would not only lose an important ally in Taiwan, but it might just well close shop in the Indo-Pacific area. Allies in the region may seek to align with China as they will understand that the US’s words or guarantees cannot be relied upon. I cannot see how Xi Jinping’s dream is not keeping Biden awake at night.
Dr Adediran is an Assistant professor in International Relations at Liverpool Hope University. He can be contacted on: bolaadediran2020@yahoo.com