From the situation on the ground at the moment, peace has yet to appear in the horizon for Ukraine from the war Russia has declared against it. The war has gone on for five months and it is crystal clear from the utterances and body language of the two main adversaries, Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and Vladimir Putin of Russia, that neither side is contemplating a peaceful resolution yet. If anything, President Zelensky is ramping up his rhetoric and demanding for more lethal weapons to enable Ukraine defeat Russia on the battlefield and regain his country’s sovereignty. No one can argue seriously against such patriotic intent, after all every country deserves the right to enjoy its political independence and territorial sovereignty. That is how it should be. So, Ukraine is on the right to demand that right. However, the feasibility of its current fixation with defeating Russia rather than seeking peace through negotiations is the real issue here.
What Russia terms its Special Military Operations, in reality a full blown war with Ukraine, has sadly dragged on for too long, with disastrous consequences for that hapless nation and with tremendous collateral consequences for the rest of the world. No single country is exempted, what with the disruption of global supply chains, soaring energy costs in Europe and North America, shortage of grains and fertilizers to rest of the world because both warring nations are unable to export these products, causing social agonies in several developing nations of the Middle East and Africa. All these are because neither Ukraine nor Russia is willing to sue for peace, and also because the American war-mongers and armament manufacturers are having a field day, smiling their way to the banks from reaping billions in arms sales to Ukraine, would not relent in pushing Ukraine further into the unwinnable war. With President Joe Biden having recently signed a $40 billion military aid package to Ukraine, it is unlikely America would encourage Zelensky to seek peaceful resolution. Let’s not also forget that the Biden administration has unmistakably declared that its ultimate objective is to employ the Ukrainian war to weaken Russia.
For America, the war is not about Ukraine’s sovereignty or any such noble consideration. It is not about Ukraine’s survival, independence and sovereignty; it is simply a hegemonic power tussle with Russia, Ukraine the unfortunate proxy! This is not unexpected, as great powers have historically sacrificed the interests or even existence of small nations whenever their own national interests so demanded. It is not about morality but national interests, period. Even for America’s main European sidekick, the United Kingdom, whose incompetent and hedonistic Boris Johnson, has just been humiliated into resigning from office, Ukraine is just a blunt object with which to bludgeon Russia. Both America and Britain have been pushing their lackey, President Zelensky, against entertaining any notions of a peaceful resolution.
Perhaps momentarily forgetting that he is but an American stooge (defined as “a subordinate used by another to do unpleasant routine work,”) a mere errand-boy of its huge military-industrial complex, one constantly lionized by the Western corporate media, Zelensky probably now fancies himself a modern-day Winston Churchill, Britain’s war-time leader who roused his nation to victory against Nazi Germany in WWII. Inebriated by Western propaganda and, of course, by his own regular speechifying to audiences outside Ukraine, Zelensky has renounced his position expressed in the early days of the war to seek some form of neutrality for Ukraine and is now crazily gung-ho about defeating Russia. No doubt, he has demonstrated great courage in the face of adversity; he is, unfortunately, not Winston Churchill, any similarities notwithstanding. Unlike Britons who stayed to defend their homeland in the face of daily bombardment by the Luftwaffe, between six and eight million Ukrainians out of a population of 44 million promptly fled across the border to seek refuge. Most of those who stayed behind have done so, not so much out of patriotic consciousness but out of compulsion because Zelensky quickly shut the borders to prevent such an exodus.
Egged on by his Western paymasters, Zelensky has been caught in a vicious whirlpool from which he can no longer extricate himself. He will neither seek a ceasefire to enable negotiations take place nor an end to the war, until his American backers whose selfish objective is the weakening of Russia have had enough, by which time it would certainly be too late for Ukraine to have much to bargain with. This is the unfolding scenario, as Russia daily pounds Ukrainian military forces, destroying its cities and infrastructure in relentless aerial and artillery bombardments and laying waste to the country. With Russian forces controlling huge swaths of the Donbas region, Vladimir Putin has warned darkly that there would be pretty little left for Ukraine to bargain with if the war continues longer than necessary.
To be frank, defeating Russian forces on the battlefield seems a bridge too far, all things considered. First, Russia is a much bigger, populous, industrialized and much more militarily capable than Ukraine, so the balance of forces seems to be on its side. And this is not to conclude that Russia’s wicked invasion is just, but to state that the balance is in its favour. Second, the pitched battles are taking place on Ukrainian soil, which implies that it has more to lose because the destruction is on its side. No amount of spin and propaganda about the heroism of Ukrainian resistance can alter that reality for now. Third, though Western military assistance to Ukraine is massive, but the West is not willing to put boots on the ground in Ukraine, so only the Ukrainians will fight, and fight until either the last man is dead or their leaders seek a diplomatic solution. There is a limit to the good that sophisticated weapons would do in the hands of poorly trained and inexperienced fighters after Ukraine might have severely depleted its ranks of experienced soldiers. Western sanctions are no doubt biting Russia but have thus far not halted its aggression. Fourth, rebuilding the country from the ruins of war cannot commence until the actual shooting stops and some relative peace is restored. Even at that, it is going to be a painful and slow process because it will depend on foreign aid and huge private sector investments in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Investors rarely risk venturing into war zones whilst the shooting persists.
The earlier President Zelensky dropped his opposition to peace, the earlier the process of rebuilding and rehabilitation can commence for the suffering people of the country. He must realise that America is the ultimate winner, whichever way the war ends. Its contractors will move in swiftly to corner the multi-billion dollar rebuilding contracts and smile to the banks at the expense of Ukrainians just as their armaments-making compatriots have been doing since the war began. Enough of this senseless bloodshed and destruction. Let commonsense prevail to allow diplomatic efforts to end the war. If Ukraine does not take the steps, neither would Russia, nor even the Americans who are profiting from it all. Let’s put an end to the needless suffering of Ukrainians.
- Prof. Fawole is of Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife.