Social media – a collective term for interactive technologies and applications that enable users to create and share content as well as participate in social networking – is hugely popular among millions of active users in Nigeria. In this piece about how digital media is reshaping the game of politics in Nigeria, GBADE OGUNWALE digs into how and why frontline presidential candidates are whipping themselves into a frenzy as they jostle for the attention of the electorate ahead of next month’s race
The advent of social media has changed the way the human society used to interact in a number ways. It’s an era of digitisation that has continued to impact positively and negatively, depending on how the user chooses to leverage the new found-key to the outside world. Social media has risen to become a significant tool in Nigeria’s electoral politics since 2011, a revolution inspired by the election of Barack Obama by the Facebook generation in 2008. For many, the social media has become a way of life as it now provides a source of livelihood for millions of youths all over the world. Social media influencers are smiling to the bank daily with networking experts making a kill from the digital revolution. Existing social media platforms include Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Pinterest, Tik Tok, Snapchat, Quora, Blog, WhatsApp and many others.
With digitisation that comes with the social media, the various platforms are now in keen competition with traditional broadcast stations in terms of instantaneity of contents, with visual and audio accompaniments. Similarly, online publications have also been giving traditional newspapers a run for their money in the race to dominate the media space. In order not to be caught flat-footed, broadcast stations and newspapers have been forced to make incursion into the various social media platforms with their products and services. This has enabled them to reach a wider audience with their products and services for added business advantage.
In the Nigerian context, just like in other parts of the world, the social media has become a veritable tool for politicians to market themselves to the electorate. And with the election season here with us, Nigerian politicians have seized the various social media platforms to launch their campaigns. They are now fully aware that their electioneering campaigns cannot be effective without adequate presence in the various social media platforms.
Last December, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) said the country’s internet subscribers rose to 152.71 million in October 2022. According to the data, the total number of active mobile internet subscribers increased to 152.15 million at the end of October 2022 – from 139 million recorded in October 2021. By implication, this means that the country’s mobile internet subscribers increased by 12.17 million within the last one year. Many mobile internet subscribers are active social media users.
Consequently, contenders in the 2023 presidential race and their social media handlers have been engaging Nigerians and sharing their public statements on their various social media platforms. In the Nigerian context, campaign messages, both constructive and destructive, are shared mostly on WhatsApp, which is the most popular among Nigerians with millions of subscribers across the country.
As the 2023 Nigeria’s general elections draw nearer, the media space is awash with a plethora of political messages. While some of these messages seek to brighten the chances of preferred candidates, others are targeted at diminishing rival candidates in the eyes of the public through smear campaigns. The social media has continued to sustain the most virulent and aggressive campaign on the 2023 presidential contest. More often, social media promoters tend to slant contents in favour of their preferred candidates; while exposing the weaknesses in opponents.
Obi
In the upcoming election, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Mr Peter Obi, is pushing hard on social media. Obi, who joined Twitter in October 2018, has been able to attract over 2.7 million on the micro blogging platform. His Facebook page has attracted 724, 981 followers. His visibility in the social media took an upward swing since he joined the presidential race mid-2022. He is more popular among social media users, especially the youth population. Supporters and influencers of the Labour Party candidate have been able to build a vast and intimidating social media structure to project his aspiration. Skit makers are having a field day creating hyperbolic contents that his critics say are way taller than the candidate himself. Most of the pro-Obi skits are fashioned to denigrate and diminish his opponents. For effect, the skits and contents are sometimes manipulated to make a caricature of the Labour Party’s major opponents in the presidential race. Obi is also reputed to maintain a lead in many social media opinion poll surveys conducted in recent times. This is expected because a sizeable chunk of his supporters is drawn from the youth population.
Ironically, while this critical segment of the population exhibits strong presence in the social media, they are known to be ambivalent when it comes to actual voting. It’s been proven that many of these active young men and women on social media do not have Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) needed to exercise their civil responsibility. In a recent (albeit unscientific) survey of people with PVC conducted by a skit maker, a sum of N5,000 was being given to anyone who could show their PVC. It turned out that majority of those that won the prize money were market women who showed their PVCs on demand. Many of the young men and women of voting age captured in the survey and who expressed reference for Obi’s candidacy, did not register for PVC.
Tinubu
The candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who joined Twitter in February 2012, has garnered over 1.6 million followers; while he is being followed by over 75, 000 people on Facebook. However, Tinubu’s social media promoters have continued to showcase his achievements during his eight years as governor of Lagos State. Also, his humanitarian gestures during his tenure as governor and after leaving office are being beamed to the world in visuals, audio and text. His Emilokan (it’s my turn) claim appears to be gaining more popularity by the day. Skit makers have crafted melodious remix with Emilokan to provide entertainment for social media users. Emilokan has now become a common slogan among Nigerians across the strata to depict divine blessing and intervention in their daily affairs. “It’s my turn to shine”, it’s my turn to be blessed”, it’s my turn to conquer”, you hear them say. Similarly, many Churches and worship places, especially the Pentecostal, have also caught the Emilokan bug. It’s now common place to see church banners announcing crusades and other activities with Emilokan as a theme. In a typical Nigerian fashion, Emilokan has now assumed religious and even spiritual dimensions. This positive has gone far beyond the imagination of the Emilokan exponent himself.
On the other hand, the APC candidate appears to be at the receiving end of social media attacks more than any other candidate in the presidential contest. Adjudged the most popular of the candidates with high prospects of winning the election, the attacks have been coming in torrents. Daily, the social media space gets splashed with disparaging skits, manipulated visuals, distorted facts and concocted documents all in a bid to diminish his electoral value. However, the Jagaban, as he is popular called by millions of his admirers, appears to have developed a thick skin against the vitriolic attacks. As far as the 2023 presidential election goes, Tinubu has become the big head that receives all the knocks. But as the saying goes, it’s pressure that makes the diamond much harder than stone. And while Obi commands a large social media following, Tinubu controls human structures built across the six geopolitical zones over the years.
Atiku
Unlike the two contenders above, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, commands a huge social media followership. He leads other presidential contestants on Twitter and Facebook. Atiku, who joined Twitter in August 2010, has got over 4.7 million followers while over 1.2 million follow him on Facebook. Being a veteran contender in the presidential race, Atiku had registered his presence on the social media platforms long before other presidential candidates in the 2023 race. Presently, his two main social media foot soldiers – Reno Omokri and Deji Adeyanju – are still struggling with the task of de-marketing Atiku’s main opponents: LP’s Obi and APC’s Tinubu.
It’s an irony, however, that despite his strong visibility in the social media, Atiku had, in a live television interview late last year, declared that “90 percent of our people are not on social media.” “Our people,” in that context, obviously referred to his part of the country: northern Nigeria. Like the APC candidate, the PDP candidate has also been getting a good measure of social media bashing. The “16 wasted years of his PDP” in the nation’s leadership saddle and the distasteful description of him by his erstwhile boss, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, have been a reference point. More than any other thing, the former vice president appears to be banking on ethnic sentiments for votes.
Many recall how he appealed to ethnic sentiments by telling a gathering of political stakeholders in Kaduna not to vote a Yoruba or Igbo candidate. His two main rivals: Tinubu is Yoruba, while Obi is Igbo. In the 2019 election circle, Atiku, who was then candidate of the PDP, maintained a lead in social outing and rating. The incumbent President, Muhammadu Buhari who sought re-election on the platform of the APC, was the butt of cruel jokes on social media at the time. Like what Tinubu is experiencing at the moment, Buhari never stood a hare’s chance on social media in the run up to the 2019 election. But as it were, Buhari won the real election; while Atiku ‘won’ on social media.
The candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Kwankwaso, is trailing far behind the other three contestants on social media. Kwankwaso joined Twitter in February 2018 and has 324, 000 followers with 61, 000 followers on Facebook. Kwankwaso has the largest chunk of his support base in the Northwest geopolitical zone, mainly in Kano state. Going by official records released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Kano State has the second highest number of registered voters for the 2023 elections. This contraction seems to lend credence to Atiku’s assertion that 90 percent of voters in the North are not on social media.
Unlike his three co contestants, facts on the ground indicate that Kwankwaso may not have much electoral appeal outside his Northwest support base. It’s apparent that most of his supporters or people who may be inclined to vote for him are not necessarily on social media. This has not deterred the Kano strongman from pushing through the social media nevertheless. However, he appears to have fewer influencers in the social media than the three frontline contenders in the presidential race.
How new technology may define 2023 poll
With the new Electoral Act coming on stream, virtually all the political parties in the 2023 contest have been sounding optimistic about their chances. The expected deployment of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), which enables electronic transmission of results from polling units, has raised hopes of transparency in the electoral process. With BVAS and electronic transmission of results in place, ballot snatching and ballot stuffing will become an exercise in futility. With BVAS, only those with authenticated PVCs will be eligible to vote, thus eliminating the use of incidence form through which elections are often rigged.
Not only that. Those buying up and hoarding PVCs may also be labouring in vain. Electoral officials or agents of political parties who may wish to inflate voting figures at collation centres will be checkmated with electronic transmission of results from polling units. Perhaps the only window of exploitation open to political parties is vote buying. It’s a hushed transaction where voters sell their votes for a few naira notes, with desperate political party agents on hand to buy up loose consciences – a symbiotic and “mutually beneficial” black market transaction. For as long as there are vote sellers, vote buyers can’t be in short supply. Pundits have said it’s now left for the security agencies to track and identify operators in the illicit ballot trading and act appropriately.
As a matter of fact, the introduction of BVAS and Electronic Transmission of results is not totally new to elections in the country. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) deployed the technology in a number of off-season governorship elections in some states. The affected states included Ondo, Edo, Anambra, Ekiti and Osun states. Also, the technology was used in a number of by-elections and supplementary polls in a few states. In virtually all the instances, voters and parties had expressed satisfaction with the conduct of the elections; with vote buying and selling being the only sore points. What comes with digitilisation of the electoral process is that anyone can sit in the comfort of their homes and receive voting results right from the polling units. However, such results must be officially authenticated and certified by electoral officials on the ground. With assurances of non-interference from President Buhari, Nigerians and indeed the entire world can now sit back and look forward to free, fair, transparent and credible 2023 general elections. Will Buhari walk his talk and cement his democratic credential?