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  • FX reforms, compliance drive Nigeria’sremoval from EU’s high-risk list

    FX reforms, compliance drive Nigeria’sremoval from EU’s high-risk list

    The European Union’s (EU) announcement that Nigeria has been removed from its list of high-risk jurisdictions for money laundering and terrorism financing underscores the success of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) reforms. It highlights growing transparency, stronger compliance in the financial sector, and effective implementation of Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) measures, reports Assistant Editor COLLINS NWEZE

    Nigeria’s exit from the EU’s High-risk List is expected to enhance global trust and partnership for the domestic economy. It is also an indication that Nigeria’s financial sector has experienced major transformation in recent years, following reforms in the sector. From exchange rate unification, increasing regulatory guidance, transparency in the forex market operations, enhanced surveillance in financial flows to the economy.

    A large part of these reforms and policy implementations have brought significant benefits to the economy. A remarkable gain was the recent European Union (EU), removal of Nigeria from its list of high-risk jurisdictions for money laundering and terrorism financing, alongside South Africa and four other African countries.

    The move was generally seen by analysts as providing a further fillip to Nigeria’s economic prospects. A statement published on the European Commission’s website said: “The European Commission, in its assessment, concluded that Nigeria has significantly strengthened the effectiveness of its AML/CFT regime and satisfactorily addressed the technical and strategic deficiencies highlighted by the FATF site, the move reflects decisions taken by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) at its June and October 2025 plenaries, where several countries were removed from the list of “Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring,” commonly referred to as the grey-list.

    The statement also said that the move means that enhanced due diligence requirements applied to transactions involving Nigeria and other delisted countries will be lifted from January 29, 2026, subject to procedural approval by the European Parliament and the Council. Analysts note that like its removal the FATF grey-list, Nigeria’s removal from the EU high-risk list also has significant economic and financial implications for the country.

    The fact remains that being classified as a high-risk jurisdiction often leads to higher transaction costs, delayed payments, restricted correspondent banking relationships, and reduced foreign investment. Nigeria was removed from the FATF grey-list in October last year after implementing a series of reforms aimed at strengthening its anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CFT) regime.

    CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, earlier said the deployment of the Electronic Forex Market Surveillance System (EFEMS), the shift to a single, market-determined foreign exchange rate regime, and enhanced risk-based banking supervision – underscore CBN’s track record of reform delivery. They have strengthened Nigeria’s capacity to absorb external shocks, from volatile oil prices to shifts in credit rating sentiment.

    “In 2026, we will deepen engagement with stakeholders, strengthen collaboration with other regulators and international partners, and foster responsible innovation across the financial system. We will continue to provide forward guidance, protect the integrity of our financial markets, leverage technology and AI to improve decision‑making, and build institutional capacity to support an evolving and resilient financial system,” he said.

    Reforms’ contributions to high-risk exit

    On assumption of office, the apex bank leadership led by Cardoso swung into action, dismantling the roadblocks and opaqueness in the financial system that put Nigerian on the EU list. From reforms in the bureau de change operations, which falls within the other financial sector segment of the economy, to the increase in surveillance and supervision of the deposit money banks, the CBN left no stone unturned to ensure that Nigeria exits the grey list.

    Part of the compliance records include Nigeria’s lenders being able to identify the beneficial owner, and taking reasonable measures to verify the identity of the beneficial owner, such that they become satisfied that beneficial owner in every transaction is known. As required by the law, the Nigeria’s financial institutions are also able to understand the ownership and control structure of their customers, obtain information on the purpose and intended nature of the business relationship and conduct due diligence on the business relationship. They equally ensured that scrutiny of transactions are undertaken throughout the course of every banking relationship.

    President, Bank Customers Association of Nigeria (BCAN), Dr. Uju Ogubunka, described Nigeria’s exit from the EU list as an excellent development, for the country. He praised the CBN’s efforts at ensuring that Nigeria is no longer burdened by the grey list challenges, following its exit. He said: “It opens new approach and opportunities in Nigeria banks and customers dealings with international financial institutions. It shows that Nigeria’s financial system is safe for payments and other transactions. It is worth celebrating by all Nigerians,” he said. Ogubunka advised that government should do more to ensure that Nigeria does not relapse, or return into the list by continuing to do things right.

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    More views from stakeholders

    Reacting to the country’s removal from the FATF grey list in a statement it issued at the time, the CBN said the move recognised “significant improvements in Nigeria’s regulatory, supervisory, and enforcement frameworks, particularly in combating money laundering, terrorist financing, and proliferation financing.”

    It also added that the development “marks an important milestone in the country’s continuing efforts to strengthen financial system integrity, transparency, and international confidence.” The statement identified key reforms assessed by the FATF and the Inter-Governmental Action Group Against Money Laundering in West Africa (GIABA), FATF’s regional assessment body.

    These include: Strengthened oversight of financial institutions through updated AML/ CFT regulations, risk-based supervision, and fit and-proper assessments; expansion of compliance reporting and monitoring across remittance channels, Bureaux De Change, and fintech platforms to improve traceability and transparency; enhanced inter-agency data sharing and enforcement coordination between the CBN, the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU), the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission ( EFCC), and law-enforcement bodies and implementation of market governance tools, including the Foreign Exchange Code (FX Code) and Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS).

    Furthermore, the statement said: “Nigeria’s removal from the grey list will yield tangible benefits for businesses and households alike including – lowering compliance costs, improving access to international finance, and making cross-border transactions faster and more affordable. In time, these gains will translate into smoother trade settlements, quicker remittance inflows, and even more predictable access to foreign exchange – enhancing livelihoods, supporting enterprise growth, and deepening financial inclusion.

    “The FATF decision reinforces the broader restoration of global confidence in Nigeria’s economic management. Recent international assessments underscore this momentum, with Moody’s and Fitch upgrading Nigeria’s ratings outlook on the back of stronger external balances, credible policy execution, and renewed monetary-policy credibility.”

    It also quoted Cardoso as saying: “The FATF’s decision to remove Nigeria from the grey list is a strong affirmation of our reform trajectory and the growing integrity of our financial system.

    “It reflects a clear policy direction and the coordinated efforts of key national institutions working together to deliver sustainable, standards-based reforms. Our priority now is to consolidate these gains, ensuring that compliance, innovation, and trust continue to advance hand in hand to reinforce financial stability and strengthen Nigeria’s global credibility.”

    Also, the CBN and Bank of Angola Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), signed late 2025, represents a major step to strengthen financial sector regulations and fight money laundering. Cardoso, who signed on behalf of the CBN alongside the Governor of the Central Bank of Angola, Manuel Antonio Tiago Diaz, noted that the MoU aligns with Africa’s broader goals of economic integration and financial stability. Both apex bank leaders said the partnership marks a critical development between the two institutions in their efforts to deepen bilateral cooperation and technical exchange.

    Both institutions are by the MoU expected to establish a bilateral forum for the reciprocal exchange and sharing of technical assistance between the authorities to enhance capacity in the execution of their respective Central Bank functions. They are also expected to cooperate and collaborate in the cross-border supervision of authorized institutions and exchange of cybersecurity information between them.

    According to them, the institutions are to partner on licensing, supervision, resolution planning and implementation of resolution measures for cross-border financial establishments. They are also to ensure transparent and smooth periodic exchange of information as well as define procedures for exchange of information. The cooperation will also extend to exchange control, financial markets and foreign reserves management, currency management and economic research.

    The partnership further extends to payment, clearing and settlement systems management, financial sector development, banking supervision and regulation as well as Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism. Both central bank leaders said it is their hope that the outcome of the MoU implementation will be a win-win for both parties.

    Cost of grey list to economy grey-listing of Nigeria carried a significant cost translating to more than $30 billion in potential investments. Cardoso said: “Nigeria’s grey-listing carried a significant cost: countries in this category typically experience a 7.6 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) drop in capital inflows in the first year, for Nigeria, that translates to more than USD $30 billion in potential investment.  Exiting the list therefore signals a major restoration of confidence and eases compliance frictions for correspondent banks.”

    Cardoso said the global financial community has welcomed Nigeria’s exit, noting improved access to international finance and smoother cross‑border payments. He explained that one of the most significant achievements this year was Nigeria’s exit from the FATF grey list.

    “This milestone was the result of a coordinated national effort led by the Federal Government, with critical contributions from the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Ministry of Justice, the NFIU, the EFCC, and our regional partners. Through stronger supervision, improved reporting standards, enhanced intelligence‑sharing, and governance tools such as the FX Code, we addressed the deficiencies identified by FATF during its on‑site assessment,” he said.

    X-ray on economy

     In the Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.4 per cent, from the 3.7 per cent projection it had announced for the country in June 2025. The report said: “Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027—the fastest pace in over a decade. This further firming of growth is anticipated to be underpinned by a continued expansion in services and a rebound in agricultural output, with a modest acceleration in non-oil industry.

    “Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue supporting activity. They are also expected to improve investor sentiment and reduce inflation further. Higher oil output is expected to offset lower international oil prices this year, helping to boost fiscal revenues and strengthen the external balance.”

    The apex bank appeared to have set the ball rolling in terms of forecasting positive economic outlooks for the country, when in its macroeconomic outlook for 2026, released last month, it made optimistic projections for the nation’s economy. The apex bank stated: “The year 2026 presents a realistic window of opportunity for macroeconomic stabilisation. The Nigerian economy is expected to continue expanding, with growth projected at 4.49 per cent in 2026. The projection is hinged on continued gains from broad-based structural reforms and a gradually easing monetary policy stance.”

  • How sustained government policies reshaped forex transactions

    How sustained government policies reshaped forex transactions

    Foreign exchange, often called “forex,” affects the daily lives of millions of Nigerians, even if many people do not deal with dollars or euros directly. The price of food in the market, the cost of fuel, school fees, medicines, and even transport fares are all linked to the exchange of the naira against other currencies. Over the past few years, Nigeria’s forex story has been one of big promises, tough policies and mixed results, reports Assistant Editor NDUKA CHIEJINA.

    At the onset of the current phase of forex reforms initiated by the Bola Tinubu administration, the situation was in dire straits. Nigeria’s economy heavily depended on imports of fuel, machinery and many household goods. This meant there was always strong demand for foreign currencies, especially the United States dollar. At the same time, the main source of forex inflow, which is crude oil exports, was facing challenges ranging from oil theft, lower production, and fluctuating global prices. Foreign investors were also cautious about bringing money into the country because of concerns over the difficulty of repatriating their proceeds.

    Before the initiation of the reforms, Nigeria operated a system where there were multiple exchange rates. There was an official rate set by the Central Bank of Nigeria, and there were other rates in the parallel market, often called the black market. This gap created confusion and opportunities for people to engage in round tripping. They buy dollars cheaply at the official rate and sell them at a higher price on the street. Many businesses complained that they could not access dollars at the official window, forcing them to rely on the parallel market, which was more expensive and unstable.

    When the new government came in, many Nigerians hoped for a fresh approach. President Bola Tinubu made it clear that he wanted a more transparent and market-driven forex system. He spoke about the need to remove practices that encouraged corruption. The President said the country could not continue to run a system where a few people benefited from cheap official dollars while ordinary Nigerians and genuine businesses struggled to survive.

    In one of his early pronouncements, President Tinubu explained that a single, unified exchange rate would help attract foreign investors and restore confidence in the Nigerian economy. According to him, investors want to know that when they bring money into the country, they can change it at a fair rate and take it out again without facing restrictions or heavy losses. He also linked a strong and stable forex market to job creation, saying that more investments would lead to more factories, offices, and opportunities for young people.

    In driving home the new policy thrust, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun said: “Nigeria now have a foreign exchange rate that is market based and also a deregulated oil market pricing which are two reforms that are long overdue over many decades that President Tinubu is currently implementing.

     “The exchange rate stability achieved makes Nigeria competitive globally, regionally and continentally,” he stated.

    On his part, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Dr. Olayemi Cardoso advocates for a “willing buyer, willing seller” model, believing that artificial controls are unsustainable. He stated that a stable exchange rate will boost investor confidence and attract foreign investment. The CBN management has adopted a market forces approach, noting that artificially holding down the price of a commodity determined by forex is unsustainable.  Cardoso also emphasised that closing the gap in exchange rates, though painful initially, showed commitment to transparency and sound monetary policy.

    Following these positions, the government and the Central Bank moved to change how forex was managed. The main policy initiative was the unification of the exchange rate. This meant that instead of having different rates for different users, the market would determine the value of the naira, based on demand and supply. The official and parallel market rates were expected to come closer, reducing the wide gap that had existed for years.

    The Central Bank also introduced measures to clear the backlog of unmet forex demands, especially for foreign airlines, manufacturers and international companies that had been waiting to repatriate their funds. The idea was to send a message to the world that Nigeria was serious about honouring its financial obligations and creating a friendly business environment.

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    Another part of the policy drive was to encourage more forex inflows. This included efforts to boost non-oil exports such as agriculture, solid minerals, and manufactured goods. The government talked about making it easier for Nigerians in the diaspora to send money home through official channels, offering better rates and fewer charges. There were also discussions about improving oil production and reducing theft so that more dollars could come into the country from crude sales.

    The outcome of these policies has been mixed. On the one hand, the unification of the exchange rate brought more transparency. The wide gap between the official and parallel market rates reduced, at least for a period. Some foreign investors began to show renewed interest, and Nigeria recorded improvements in capital inflows. Operators said the system was clearer, even though it came at a cost.

    On the other hand, the value of the naira weakened because the exchange rate was now market determined. This had a direct effect on the cost of living. Imported goods became more expensive, and the prices of locally produced items rose because many of the inputs, such as fuel and machinery, are linked to the dollar. Inflation climbed, and many families felt the pressure on their monthly budgets.

    Manufacturers also faced challenges. While they welcomed a more open forex system, the high cost of dollars made it harder for them to import raw materials and spare parts. Some companies reduced production, while others passed the extra costs to consumers. Small businesses, in particular, struggled to cope with the fast-changing exchange rates.

    Today, the inevitable adjustment is gradually gaining traction. Forex inflow has improved, although not in the required volume. Oil production has picked up compared to previous lows, but it has not yet reached levels that can comfortably support the country’s forex needs.

    The Central Bank has continued to adjust its policies, including raising interest rates to make naira investments more attractive. The idea is that higher interest rates can encourage foreign investors to bring money into Nigerian bonds and other financial instruments, increasing the supply of dollars. There have also been efforts to strengthen monitoring and reduce illegal forex trading.

    Many Nigerians now ask a simple question: where are we today? The answer depends on who you ask. Government officials often point to improvements in transparency and investor confidence. They say the system is now fairer and more open than before. Some economists agree that, in the long run, a market-driven forex system is better for the economy.

    However, for the ordinary Nigerian, the reality is tough. The high cost of living is the most visible sign of a weak naira. Food prices, transport fares, rent, and school fees have all risen, but are moderating. Looking ahead, projections for Nigeria’s forex market depend on several key factors. One is oil production. If Nigeria can increase output and reduce losses from theft and pipeline damage, more dollars will flow into the system. Another is non-oil exports. Expanding agriculture, mining, and manufacturing for export can help reduce the country’s heavy reliance on crude oil.

    Foreign investment is also crucial. If investors believe that Nigeria’s policies are stable and fair, they are more likely to bring in funds. This requires clear rules, respect for contracts, and a strong legal system. The government’s ability to manage inflation and public debt will also play a role in shaping confidence. Diaspora remittances offer another opportunity. Nigerians abroad send billions of dollars home every year. Making official channels more attractive can increase the amount that passes through the formal forex system, strengthening supply. There are also risks. Global oil prices can fall, reducing earnings. International interest rates can rise, making investors prefer safer markets. Local challenges such as insecurity and poor infrastructure can discourage business growth and export expansion.

    From a personal and professional point of view, the current state of Nigeria’s forex situation calls for patience, consistency, and deeper reforms. The move toward a more open and transparent system is a step in the right direction, but it should be supported by strong efforts to grow the local economy. Nigerians need more factories, better farms, and stronger industries that can produce what the country consumes and sell to the world.

    There is also a need for clear communication. Many people do not fully understand why the naira has fallen or what the long-term plan is. Simple and regular explanations from policymakers can help build trust and reduce fear and speculation in the market.

    In the end, forex is not just about numbers on a screen. It is about jobs, food on the table, school fees, and the future of young Nigerians. A stable and strong naira will not come from policy changes alone. It will come from a productive economy where Nigeria earns more from what it makes and sells, not just from what it digs out of the ground.

    As the country moves forward, the challenge will be to turn today’s difficult adjustments into tomorrow’s lasting gains. The road may be hard, but with steady policies, honest leadership, and the hard work of millions of Nigerians, the goal of a healthier and more stable forex market remains within reach.

    Speaking to this development, Dr. Galadima Simon: “Growth is projected to do better in 2026 than in the previous year, 4.49 per cent this year as against 3.89 per cent in the year prior. This would be driven by the non-oil sector meaning FX reserves inflows would be diversified, leaving the Naira stronger. FX reserves are expected to climb to around $51 billion, inflation to decelerate further and exchange rate to experience appreciation.

    “The situation is largely net positive in value as the gains outweigh the pains. However, it is not uhuru as market dichotomy still exists despite unification, foreign exchange earnings still not diversified enough with oil playing an outsized role.”

    On his part, Economic Analyst, Dr. Yusha’u Aliyu noted: “Looking at the market behaviour in the last six months, it’s likely that the current trend will extend to the six months of 2026 when the budget of the year will begin to translate some provisions to the economy and subsequently when the electioneering takes effect, some elements of political expenditures will trigger in balance of the exchange rate, especially dollarisation.”

  • Honouring a lifetime of risk, reinvention and business triumph

    Honouring a lifetime of risk, reinvention and business triumph

    At the University of Lagos (UNILAG) convocation, the loudest message did not come from the podium but from the symbolism on display. In conferring an honorary Doctorate in Business (Honoris Causa) on Wale Tinubu, the university elevated enterprise to the level of scholarship in action — implying that the rigour of building companies, weathering shocks and reinvesting in society is itself a vital form of national learning, reports Associate Editor ADEKUNLE YUSUF

    The hush inside the University of Lagos auditorium was the kind reserved for moments that feel larger than ceremony. On a humid January morning in Akoka, the university shimmered with the ritual pageantry of convocation — academic gowns in disciplined colours, proud families craning for photographs, and the low murmur of ambition hanging in the air. Then the name rang out — one more familiar to trading floors, oil fields, and global investment circles than to lecture theatres. Dr Jubril Adewale “Wale” Tinubu (CON), Group Chief Executive of Oando Plc, stepped forward to receive an Honorary Doctorate of Business (Honoris Causa), and in that brief walk across the stage, decades of enterprise, risk, controversy, reinvention, and nation-building seemed to compress into a single symbolic moment.

    It was more than a conferment. It was the convergence of two worlds: scholarship and enterprise, theory and execution. In Tinubu’s journey — from young Lagos lawyer to one of Africa’s most recognisable energy executives — the university found a narrative that mirrored Nigeria’s own uneven, determined climb.

    For UNILAG, founded in 1962 on the conviction that intellectual capital would anchor a young nation’s future, the honour was not merely ceremonial. It was a deliberate nod to a Nigerian whose career has been defined by bold bets, hard landings, and a stubborn refusal to stop building. For Tinubu, the recognition carried a personal weight. It was, he said, “not merely a celebration of past achievements, but a renewed call to service.”

    That phrase — renewed call to service — framed both the ceremony and the man. Tinubu’s story is not the tidy arc of inherited privilege or uninterrupted success. It is a study in calculated risk, institutional reinvention, and an unshakeable belief that nations, like businesses, are built by people willing to try, fail, learn, and try again.

    The philosophy of failure

    If there was a central thesis to Tinubu’s remarks around the convocation, it was disarmingly simple: failure must be acceptable. “We learn from our failures, and we get it right,” he said. “We stop condemning the country and believing it cannot go right. The country can go right, and it goes right by us as a people collectively moving in one direction.”

    In a country where public discourse often swings between euphoric optimism and corrosive cynicism, his message landed with unusual clarity. Tinubu was not romanticising hardship; he was reframing it as raw material. Nations that succeed, he argued, do not avoid failure — they metabolise it. He reached for the language of exploration: the repeated attempts before reaching the moon, the countless failed expeditions before summiting Everest. The analogy was deliberate. Progress, in his worldview, is iterative. “A lot of people are scared of failing,” he said. “They simply don’t try — and accordingly, they never succeed.” It is a philosophy that reads less like motivational rhetoric and more like a boardroom post-mortem. For Tinubu, failure is not an emotional event; it is a data point.

    Born on June 25, 1967, Tinubu’s early trajectory gave little away about the scale of enterprise he would later command. Educated in Nigeria before earning a Bachelor of Laws from the University of Liverpool in 1988 and a Master of Laws in International Business Law from the London School of Economics, he was called to the Nigerian Bar in 1990. The path ahead seemed mapped: chambers, clients, a respectable legal career.

    But history often pivots on moments that look like inconvenience. Early in his professional life, Tinubu encountered a logistical crisis involving stranded oil tankers offshore — a problem others saw as bureaucratic quicksand. He saw arbitrage. “As a young lawyer with no office, no corporate name and very little capital, I encountered the distress most people saw as a problem,” he recalled. “I saw it as a possibility… That moment taught me a lesson that has guided every step of my life: do not wait for perfect conditions.”

    That instinct — to treat systemic friction as commercial opportunity — became the seed of what would evolve into Ocean and Oil Group, co-founded in 1993. What began as an oil trading and shipping venture would, over three decades, morph into one of Africa’s most recognisable indigenous energy brands. The transformation from trader to integrated energy group did not happen through incrementalism. It came through aggressive, sometimes audacious acquisitions. In 2000, Ocean and Oil acquired a controlling stake in UniPetrol Plc. Two years later came what was then the largest acquisition of a quoted Nigerian company: UniPetrol’s purchase of Agip Nigeria Plc. The company was later rebranded Oando Plc.

    Under Tinubu’s leadership, Oando evolved from a petroleum marketing outfit into a diversified energy company with operations spanning upstream exploration, midstream infrastructure and downstream marketing. Its primary listing on the Nigerian Stock Exchange and cross-border listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange signalled a company — and a chief executive — comfortable operating beyond local ceilings. The numbers tell one story: hundreds of retail outlets, vast storage capacity, billions of dollars raised from international finance for acquisitions and development projects. But the more revealing narrative lies in the volatility. Oando’s journey has included boardroom battles, regulatory headwinds and market shocks — the sort of turbulence that buries less resilient firms.

    Yet resilience is Tinubu’s defining corporate motif. Each downturn became, in his telling, another iteration in a long experiment: how to build an African energy company that could compete on global terms.

    Betting on a different future

    In 2021, Tinubu founded Oando Clean Energy Limited (OCEL), a move that signalled strategic acknowledgement of a world tilting toward decarbonisation. For an executive whose fortune was forged in hydrocarbons, the pivot was less ideological than pragmatic. Africa’s energy paradox — abundant fossil resources but crippling energy poverty — demands a dual strategy: expand access while preparing for transition. OCEL’s mandate is to design and deliver sustainable energy projects aligned with Nigeria’s energy needs and the global race to net zero.

    In May 2023, in partnership with the Lagos State Government, OCEL rolled out electric mass transit buses as part of a proof-of-concept phase, with hundreds more planned. It was a modest but symbolic step: the oil executive investing in electrons. This duality — oil and renewables, legacy and transition — mirrors the tightrope many emerging economies must walk. Tinubu’s position is not that Africa should abandon hydrocarbons overnight, but that it must not be locked out of the future energy architecture.

    Tinubu’s conception of nation-building extends well beyond GDP. Through the Oando Foundation, he has channelled resources into basic education, adopting dozens of public primary schools, supporting hundreds of thousands of pupils, enrolling out-of-school children and training thousands of teachers. Classrooms have been built, sanitation facilities installed and digital learning centres established. His humanitarian interventions have also reached conflict-affected regions. In 2018, he helped mobilise private-sector awareness and funding for Nigeria’s northeast humanitarian crisis, leading delegations to internally displaced persons camps in Borno State.

    These initiatives are not peripheral to his worldview; they are expressions of it. “The true measure of success,” he said, “is not how far we rise, but how much we lift others when we rise.” It is a philosophy that reframes philanthropy from charity to social investment — an attempt to widen the pipeline of future talent and stability upon which business itself ultimately depends.

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    Speaking on behalf of fellow honourees at UNILAG’s convocation, Tinubu situated the moment within the university’s historical mission. Established when Nigeria understood that political independence required intellectual infrastructure, UNILAG has produced leaders across disciplines — from public service to medicine, law to the creative industries. He paid tribute to a lineage of vice-chancellors and scholars who shaped the institution’s ethos, culminating in its current leadership. But his focus was forward-looking. Universities, he argued, are not spectators in national crises; they are engines of solutions. “Citadels of learning are not spectators to national challenge; they are drivers of it. They generate the ideas, train the innovators, test the evidence and nurture the ethical leadership that progress demands.”

    In his framing, the relationship between “town and gown” must tighten. Alumni engagement, private-sector collaboration and research partnerships are not luxuries; they are structural necessities in a knowledge-driven economy. Tinubu’s remarks also acknowledged Nigeria’s present inflection point. Economic reforms, he noted, are painful but necessary. Yet policy alone cannot deliver transformation. Ideas must inform action; evidence must guide leadership.

    Merit, in his view, is the institutional North Star. Societies that reward competence and integrity build durable systems. Those that sideline merit mortgage their future. “What we have done here today is witness a ceremony that has rewarded merit,” he said. “It is extremely important that merit be placed at the forefront of institution building.” It was both congratulatory and cautionary — praise for academic excellence, and a broader plea for standards in public life.

    Beyond corporate Nigeria, Tinubu occupies seats in global policy circles. He has been involved with the World Economic Forum’s oil and gas community, participates in high-level climate and investment dialogues, and serves on committees focused on long-term funding and infrastructure. His role in the US-Nigeria commercial investment dialogue places him at the intersection of diplomacy and commerce. These platforms amplify his influence, but they also reinforce a recurring theme: Africa must not be a passive recipient of global decisions. It must help shape them. His national honour — Commander of the Order of the Niger (CON) — formalised state recognition of those contributions. But honours, like doctorates, are punctuation marks, not conclusions.

    The walk across the stage

    Back in the UNILAG auditorium, as cameras flashed and applause rose, Tinubu’s investiture carried layered symbolism. A lawyer who became an energy magnate. A hydrocarbons executive funding clean transport pilots. A businessman lecturing graduates on patriotism, failure and service. Universities confer honorary degrees not just to celebrate individuals, but to project values. In choosing Wale Tinubu, UNILAG spotlighted enterprise as a form of national service — provided it is tethered to societal progress.

    For the graduates watching, his message was stripped of corporate jargon: start before you are ready, accept failure as tuition, build anyway. For the country, it was a quieter challenge — to replace reflexive despair with disciplined effort. As the ceremony wound down and the crowd spilled into the Lagos heat, the doctorate settled onto Tinubu’s shoulders as both recognition and responsibility. In his telling, the real work lies ahead — in boardrooms, classrooms, policy tables and construction sites where Nigeria’s next chapters will be written. The gown will be folded away. The title will be added before his name. But the philosophy he carried onto that stage — that nations, like entrepreneurs, must dare, stumble, learn and dare again — is the part meant to endure.

  • ‘Digital literacy bridges economic, social gaps’

    ‘Digital literacy bridges economic, social gaps’

    In an era defined by rapid technological advancement, a digital marketing consultant, Daniel Ibikunle, said that digital literacy is no longer an optional skill but a fundamental necessity for closing the widening economic and social divides in Nigeria.

    He argues that democratising access to tech knowledge is the most effective way to ensure inclusive national growth.

    He said: “Digital literacy isn’t just a skill; it’s a necessity. My goal is to ensure that people, regardless of background or physical limitations, can participate meaningfully in a tech-driven economy.”

    He noted that his mission is rooted in personal adversity. After being forced to withdraw from Yaba College of Technology due to financial constraints, Ibikunle pivoted to Lagos State Polytechnic.

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    He said it was there he discovered the transformative potential of the digital economy, eventually building a career defined by self-learning and high-impact consultancy.

    The consultant has trained over 2,500 in digital marketing, online monetisation, social media advertising, search engine optimisation, content strategy, and emerging fields like artificial intelligence prompt engineering.

    He said his approach emphasises hands-on learning and real-world application, equipping participants with skills relevant to Nigeria’s evolving digital economy.

    Beyond individual training, he has designed high-converting websites and sales pages for clients. Through conversion-focused digital strategies and targeted campaigns, his projects have generated over $15,000 in combined sales revenue, highlighting the commercial value of well-structured digital systems.

  • Assessing factors driving $51b external reserves target, shaping naira

    Assessing factors driving $51b external reserves target, shaping naira

    Nigeria’s external reserve position is a key indicator of the country’s ability to defend the naira and meet its external obligations. Analysts estimates that at $46 billion, Nigeria’s external reserves presently cover over 12 months imports and could hit $51.04 billion by year end. Factors driving reserves build-up include improved FX inflows, higher oil receipts, increased remittances through official channels and renewed interest from foreign portfolio investors following FX market reforms instituted by the Olayemi Cardoso-led Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Overall, strong reserves position will continue to bolster exchange rate and promote financial sector stability, reports Assistant Editor COLLINS NWEZE

    Nigeria’s external reserves have crossed the $46 billion mark for the first time in about eight years, highlighting the steady growth the reserve has been recording since 2025. According to the latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the country’s external reserve has increased by about $510 million in 22 days, moving from $45.502 billion on December 31, 2025, to $46.012 billion on January 22, 2026.

    Other industry data shows that Nigeria’s external reserves were last at this level on August 27, 2018, when it stood at $45.9 billion. The reserve build-up signals stronger buffers for import cover and currency stability, reflecting steady inflows and improved foreign exchange management since the forex reforms began, as the country prepares for a general election.

    The CBN data also suggests a notable turnaround from the volatility experienced during the early phase of the new forex regime, with the reserves closing at about $45.5 billion in 2025, having opened the year at roughly $40.8 billion.

    Analysts have expressed optimism that the steady growth of Nigeria’s external reserve for several months will be sustained this year. They said that the various reforms by the government have brought stability and confidence, thereby causing improvement in the country’s external reserves. They, however, noted that while the reserves can be sustained in the short term, sustaining the momentum throughout the election year will depend on discipline on the part of the government.

    Things looking up for naira

    The naira, which currently exchanges at N1,421  to dollar at the official market, exchanges at N1,490 to dollar at the parallel market. President, Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Aminu Gwadabe, said the  naira has remained stable across market for several months, ending years of volatility in the market.

    Additionally, Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC), Bismarck Rewane, estimated the fair value of the naira at about N1,257 to the US dollar. Rewane posits that the local currency is undervalued by approximately 11 per cent when assessed using the purchasing power parity (PPP) model. Rewane made the submission during his keynote address at the 2026 Economic Outlook organised by the Association of Corporate Treasurers of Nigeria (ACTN), where he anchored the session and offered a detailed analysis of the structural and cyclical factors influencing Nigeria’s exchange-rate movements.

    He noted that currencies typically converge towards their PPP-implied values over a five-year horizon. According to him, the appropriate exchange rate based on current PPP estimates stands at N1,256.79 to the dollar, reinforcing the view that the naira remains below its fair valuation level.

    What stakeholders are saying

    The founder/Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Public Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, hinted at a positive outlook for Nigeria’s external reserves as he does not see anything derailing the forex and fiscal reforms that have brought about stability and improvement in external reserves. Yusuf said, ‘’Well, the outlook for me is positive because I don’t see anything derailing these reforms (forex reform, fuel subsidy etc.). It is these reforms that have brought about stability. And it’s this stability that has inspired confidence. It is the confidence that has allowed the improvement in the reserves. The reserves are not so much coming from oil, though. I don’t have the full breakdown. But my sense is that the reserves are coming from largely outside the oil – FDI, portfolio, diaspora flows, non-oil exports etc. Quite a lot is happening outside traditional sources of forex.

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    ‘’So, those things are anchored on reforms. For as long as that is happening and I don’t see that changing, even with the so-called election year or whatever, I don’t see anything changing that in any drastic way.’’

    Other analysts said the growth in the external reserves can only be sustained in 2026 if the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) avoids excessive FX intervention, fiscal authorities are restrained from spending pressures and the FX reforms are not reversed. They said, ‘’Historically, election cycles in Nigeria tend to introduce policy uncertainty, FX demand pressure, and capital flow reversals. So, while reserves can be sustained in the short term, maintaining this momentum throughout an election year will depend on discipline.

    Future of external reserves

    The CBN had, in its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria, projected that Nigeria’s external reserve would rise to $51.04 billion in 2026, supported by stronger oil earnings, foreign exchange (FX) market reforms, and improved external inflows. The apex bank said the outlook reflects higher oil revenues, increased bond issuance, sustained diaspora remittances, FX market reforms, and expanded domestic refining capacity. The CBN stated, “The external reserves is projected at US$51.04 billion in 2026, compared with US$45.01 billion in 2025. The external reserves is expected to be boosted by reduced pressure in the FX market based on the anticipated rise in oil earnings, sovereign bond issuance, and diaspora remittance inflow.’’

    The apex bank linked the positive external reserve outlook to expanded domestic refining, notably the Dangote Refinery’s planned capacity increase to 700,000 bpd in 2025 and a longer-term target of 1.4 million bpd. According to the CBN, increased local refining would reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products, lowering demand for foreign exchange and easing pressure on external reserves.

    The reforms payoff continues

    The FX reforms, instituted by the Olayemi Cardoso-led CBN, new policies instituted by the Federal Government to boost local production, reduce forex demand pressure, and lessen domestic prices have been instrumental to macroeconomic stability. The expectations are that the apex bank sustains the forex reforms while the fiscal authority strengthens efforts at enhancing FX earnings, especially from gas, oil and non-oil exports.

    CBN Governor explained that the rise in foreign reserve marked a significant rebound in Nigeria’s foreign currency buffers amid ongoing efforts to stabilise the exchange rate and rebuild investor confidence. The reserves spike happened despite relatively stronger CBN market intervention this year and external debt servicing as well as weak oil receipts.  Looking ahead, the analysts expect robust FX liquidity from both foreign and local sources, driven by strong market confidence, to continue supporting naira stability in the near term. They also expect headline inflation to ease further in July, supported by a moderation in both food and core inflation components.

    “Specifically, we anticipate the slowdown in food prices to be supported by improved market supply from early green harvests and the relative stability of the naira, which is expected to reduce pressure on imported food prices. Similarly, core inflation is projected to remain broadly stable, supported by a reduced exchange rate pass-through effect and steady energy prices,” they said.

    Multiple FX sources activated

    The CBN under Cardoso is cultivating multiple FX sources to increase dollar inflows, boost dollar access to manufacturers and retail end users. From moves to improve diaspora remittances through new product development, the granting licenses to new International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs), implementing a willing buyer-willing seller FX model, and enabling timely access to naira liquidity for IMTOs, the apex bank has simplified dollar-inflow channels for authorised dealers and other players in the value chain.

    The move has led to substantial accretion to the gross FX reserves and supported the stability of the naira. Given that FX inflows to the economy are strategic in achieving monetary and fiscal policy stability, the CBN under Cardoso puts in a lot of efforts in attracting more inflows into the economy. Diaspora remittances to Nigeria, estimated at $23 billion annually remain a reliable source of forex to the domestic economy. There are also other sources and policies that are being explored by the apex bank to keep dollar inflows coming.

    The CBN’s initiatives have supported continued growth in these inflows, aligning with the institution’s objective of doubling formal remittance receipts within a year. The remittances in the economy is expected to increase based on  CBN’s ongoing efforts to bolster public confidence in the foreign exchange market, strengthen a robust and inclusive banking system, and promote price stability, which is essential for sustained economic growth.

    Director of Trading at Verto, Charlie Bird, said dollar liquidity dynamic is now more balanced, with foreign investors and airlines able to repatriate funds. Speaking during Cordros Asset Management seminar titled: “The Naira Playbook”, he said Nigeria is now darling of foreign investors because of improved dollar liquidity in the economy due to positive CBN’s reforms.

    As naira stabilises, import costs to dip

    Import costs have been tipped to drop significantly as the naira continues to gain more ground across markets. Importation costs in Nigeria include various taxes and charges, primarily import duties, VAT, and other levies. These costs are calculated based on the CIF value (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) of the goods, which includes the cost of the goods, insurance, and shipping.

    The cost, insurance and freight (CIF) price is the price of a good delivered at the frontier of the importing country, or the price of a service delivered to a resident before the payment of any import duties or other taxes on imports or trade and transport margins within the country. Changes in exchange rate can significantly impact the cost of imports, as duties and other charges are often calculated based on the prevailing exchange rate.

    Nigeria’s total Imports in 2024 were valued at $40.97 billion, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Nigeria’s main import partners were: China, Belgium and India. New figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveal that Nigerian imported food and beverages worth N1.67 trillion ($1 billion) during the first quarter of 2025 (January–March), reflecting a five per cent increase from the N1.59 trillion recorded over the same period in 2024.

    Analysts from Cordros Securities said the naira appreciation helped cushion the impact of the spike in imported fuel prices triggered by tensions in the Middle East. “We expect FX liquidity to remain robust, supported by reduced global pressures and stronger market confidence, which continues to attract inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). Additionally, a stronger net FX reserve position enhances the CBN’s capacity to intervene when necessary. Barring any unexpected shocks, we anticipate that the naira will remain stable in the near term,” they said.

    While Nigeria is making strides toward fuel self-sufficiency, it still relies on imports, as seen in the reduced import bill for the first quarter. This indicates a decline in fuel imports but not a complete elimination.

  • How Lagos is battling widespread refuse mess

    How Lagos is battling widespread refuse mess

    In Lagos, the refuse crisis has spilled into the heart of everyday life, transforming roadsides, markets and bus stops into informal dumpsites. Beyond the stench and visual blight lies a growing public health threat, as uncollected waste breeds disease, contaminates water and clogs drainage, turning what seems like a sanitation lapse into a warning that the city’s growth is outpacing its capacity to protect lives, report Raymond Mordi, Daniel Essiet and Udeh Onyebuchi

    You perceive the smell before you see the garbage. On Agege Motor Road in Oshodi, near the Iyana Brown bus stop, a massive pile of trash occupies almost half a lane. Black plastic bags, rotting food, empty bottles, and discarded packaging form a putrid mound that greets anyone entering Lagos. The mix of decay and diesel fumes is a warning sign: the city’s waste management system is under severe strain. And this is far from an isolated case.

    From Ajah in the east to Idi-Oro in Mushin, from Ikotun Market to Megida bus stop in Ayobo, refuse piles line roads, clog drainage channels, and crowd medians. The Nation observed that since early December 2025, garbage has become a regular, unavoidable feature of the metropolis. What began as isolated heaps has now spread, creating both a visual and health hazard. Even after the festive season, Lagos, a city renowned for its energy and constant change, remains stuck with its own waste.

    The seasonal surge in waste is one factor. December in Lagos brings street parties, concerts and bustling markets, all accompanied by increased consumption. Disposable plates, cups and food packaging flood the streets. Yet, weeks after the festivities, much of the refuse remains uncollected. “You will find garbage on the road median every time,” says Samuel Oluwashola, a resident of Ijesha in Surulere. “Even if LAWMA clears it, two days later, people start dumping again.”

    Residents, traders and drivers alike said they are feeling the impact. Heaps of refuse along the Ikorodu Garage, Apapa-Oshodi Expressway, Surulere, Iyana Ipaja, Abule Egba, and Toll Gate near Ogun State have become obstacles rather than mere eyesores. Traders lament declining sales as customers avoid smelly, congested streets. Drivers complain of longer trips and damage to vehicles. Health concerns are widespread, with residents worrying about malaria, cholera, and other sanitation-related diseases.

    The Lagos State Government acknowledges that the festive season worsened the situation, but insists that deeper structural problems are to blame. The Commissioner for the Environment and Water Resources, Tokunbo Wahab, has cited the closure of the Olusosun landfill as a major setback to waste disposal. Many residents, however, remain unconvinced. For weeks, they have watched garbage piles swell across major roads with little visible response.

    The current garbage crisis is not an aberration; it is the latest chapter in a decades-long struggle. Lagos, a megacity of more than 20 million people, generates an estimated 13,000 metric tonnes of waste daily. Official figures suggest that only about one-third of this volume is properly collected. The remainder finds its way into canals, lagoons, informal dumpsites and, increasingly, onto the streets.

    Lagos’s battle with filth has long been notorious. In the 1970s, ahead of the FESTAC ’77 cultural festival, a federal official infamously described the city as the dirtiest capital in the world. The public embarrassment spurred the creation of the Lagos State Refuse Disposal Board in 1977, which later evolved into the Lagos State Waste Management Authority (LAWMA) in 1991. Over the years, reform efforts have yielded mixed results. The introduction of the Private Sector Participation (PSP) scheme in the early 2000s improved waste collection in several neighbourhoods and brought relative order to parts of the city. Yet fundamental weaknesses persisted, including a shortage of trucks and personnel, inefficient transfer loading stations, and heavy dependence on overstretched dumpsites.

    The disposal system itself remains fragile. Lagos produces thousands of tonnes of largely non-biodegradable waste—much of it plastic—every day. Landfills such as Olusosun have operated far beyond their designed lifespan. Attempts to modernise waste handling through waste-to-energy projects and partnerships with foreign firms have repeatedly stalled. A sweeping reform plan unveiled in the late 2010s promised a decisive break from the past, but collapsed amid disputes, leaving the city largely dependent on the old, failing framework.

    By December 2025, these long-standing problems reached crisis levels. Residents and waste workers alike said multiple failures occurred simultaneously. The holiday rush compressed already strained collection schedules. Some PSP operators reportedly suspended services on certain routes over payment disputes. Ageing trucks broke down and were not replaced. In high-traffic areas such as Oshodi, drivers avoided congested corridors or streets narrowed by illegal dumping, effectively abandoning some locations.

    As refuse continues to accumulate, a familiar blame game has emerged. Government officials and LAWMA frequently fault residents for refusing to pay for waste services. “The main issue is that many Lagos residents are unwilling to pay,” said Kunle Adeshina, spokesperson for the Ministry of the Environment. He described a recurring pattern in which LAWMA clears road medians at dawn, only for them to be blanketed with refuse again by early morning.

    Others see the problem differently. “There is no incentive to come here,” said a middle-aged trader who sells spare parts near the massive heap along Agege Motor Road. “The trucks can’t turn properly. If they get stuck, nobody helps them. So they just leave it.”

    A former LAWMA official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said politics and poor coordination often worsen operational failures. “Waste management looks simple from the outside, but it depends on fuel supply, vehicle maintenance, staff welfare and enforcement,” the source explained. “When one segment breaks down, the entire chain suffers. In December, several links failed at the same time.”

    Enforcement remains one of the most contentious aspects of the crisis. While Lagos has laws prohibiting indiscriminate dumping, many of the refuse heaps lining major roads are not solely the result of individual misconduct. In some cases, waste is deposited at temporary collection points in anticipation of swift evacuation. When that evacuation does not occur, the piles expand and invite further dumping.

    Areas most prone to refuse build-up tend to share common characteristics: high population density, intense commercial activity and poor road access. Oshodi, Agege, Mushin and parts of Surulere fit this profile. Ajegunle and Ijora contend with additional challenges linked to informal housing and industrial waste.

    On Lagos Island, narrow streets and heavy pedestrian traffic complicate collection logistics. In Apapa and Mile 2, chronic port-related gridlock adds another layer of difficulty, often relegating waste evacuation to a secondary concern in an already congested urban landscape. Residents in many of the affected neighbourhoods speak of a growing sense of abandonment. “When you complain, they tell you to be patient,” said a shop owner in Mushin, gesturing at a mound of refuse behind her stall. “We have been patient for weeks. The rubbish is still here.”

    Private Sector Participation (PSP) operators argue that policy shifts have compounded operational challenges. Kehinde, who works in Iyana Ipaja, blamed the sudden closure of the Igando dumpsite and the redirection of waste to Badagry. The longer haul, he explained, translates into higher fuel costs, faster vehicle wear and tear, and fewer collection trips per day. Another operator, Samson, was blunt: “If you spend most of the day travelling, your street coverage collapses. That is why you now see mountains of refuse.”

    For residents, irregular collection erodes any incentive to pay for waste services. “People dump it on the road because nobody is coming to collect it,” said Abosede Aremu, a resident of Ikorodu. LAWMA’s Managing Director, Dr Muyiwa Gbadegesin, has acknowledged service gaps and admitted that some operators are underperforming. He has promised tougher enforcement, additional waste bins and improved accountability. Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu has also announced plans for new recycling facilities and more collection trucks. To many residents, however, these assurances feel distant and abstract.

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    Meanwhile, the health and environmental consequences are immediate and severe. Open refuse heaps attract rats, flies and other disease vectors. As organic waste decomposes, it releases noxious gases, while plastics fragment into micro-particles that wash into drains and lagoons. Blocked gutters heighten the risk of flash flooding during the rainy season, sending contaminated water into homes and onto streets.

    Public health experts warn that the outcomes are predictable. Cholera, typhoid and other water-borne diseases flourish where waste and stagnant water intersect. Respiratory ailments rise when refuse is burned—an all-too-common response when heaps are left unattended. Children, who often play near these informal dumpsites, are particularly vulnerable. Beyond health risks, the city’s reputation is also at stake. Lagos aspires to be a global African city, attractive to investors, tourists and creatives. “Detty December” has become part of that brand, drawing international attention and revenue. Yet images of trash-choked streets tell a less flattering story. For visitors, the thrill of concerts and nightlife quickly fades when the drive from the airport passes piles of rotting waste.

    Some officials privately concede the scale of the challenge but insist that remedies are underway. A senior government source, who was not authorised to speak publicly, cited logistical bottlenecks as the cause of delays. “It is not a lack of concern,” the source said. “It is a question of capacity catching up with demand.” Critics remain sceptical. Environmental advocates note that Lagos has endured similar crises before. “Every few years, we find ourselves here again,” said one campaigner. “The root causes are well known: we generate too much waste, depend excessively on landfills, and underinvest in recycling, reduction and sorting.”

    Looking back, the city is littered with missed opportunities—community-based sorting schemes that collapsed, recycling initiatives that never gained traction, and pledges to decentralise waste management to local councils that were quietly abandoned. Each administration unveils a new blueprint, only to confront the same structural weaknesses. For residents living beside the garbage heaps, such analysis offers little comfort. What they want is immediate action: clear the roads, restore access and eliminate the stench. A bus driver navigating around the pile on Agege Motor Road put it plainly: “We can manage traffic. We can manage stress. But living with rubbish on the road every day is too much.”

    Lagos Waste Management Authority (LAWMA) under pressure

    The Lagos Waste Management Authority (LAWMA) faces enormous pressure. The system relies heavily on Private Sector Participation (PSP) operators, who are responsible for collecting waste from households, markets and commercial areas. Lagos has roughly 450 PSP operators across 377 political wards. In theory, this ensures that every ward has at least one operator, with larger wards serviced by more. In practice, the system is overstretched. “Lagos is one of the largest megacities in the world, with a projected population of about 27 million,” says Dr. Muyiwa Gbadegesin, Managing Director and CEO of LAWMA. “Each resident generates roughly half a kilogramme of waste daily. When you do the arithmetic, that amounts to between 13,000 and 15,000 tonnes of waste every single day.”

    But collection is only part of the challenge. Financing, infrastructure, and disposal capacity are major bottlenecks. A new compactor truck costs about N250 million, making fleet expansion prohibitively expensive. Meanwhile, the city’s major landfills, including Olusosun and Soluos, are nearing capacity. Soluos, located near Alimosho General Hospital, was recently shut after reaching dangerous levels, forcing operators to travel farther to disposal sites in Badagry and other distant locations.

    “The closure of a landfill has ripple effects,” Gbadegesin explains. “PSP operators spend more time travelling and dumping, delaying their return to complete collections. When trucks break down or are delayed, residents often dump refuse on the roads. At that point, LAWMA has no choice but to intervene.”

    Currently, LAWMA deploys about 100 trucks across 44 operational routes, working day and night to clear illegal dump sites and backlogs. “But 100 trucks are not enough for a city of this size,” Gbadegesin admits. Ideally, Lagos needs at least 1,000 compactor trucks, with another 1,000 as backup. Over the next decade, LAWMA plans to acquire 100–200 trucks annually to meet that target.

    Beyond expanding collection capacity, the authority is pursuing transfer loading stations to reduce the distance waste must travel before disposal or treatment. Enforcement has been intensified, with teams expanded from one to four, covering strategic corridors across the metropolis. “We are increasingly becoming an enforcement agency,” Gbadegesin says. “We are even considering becoming a uniformed agency if that is what it will take. Every day, we arrest individuals who dump waste illegally and prosecute them through mobile courts. By law, every household must register with a PSP operator and pay its waste bill. Failure to comply carries consequences.”

    However, enforcement alone cannot solve the problem. LAWMA is emphasising waste reduction, recycling and reuse. “Ninety per cent of what people throw away has value to someone,” Gbadegesin notes. “Throwing waste away is, literally, throwing money away.” The state’s long-term waste management strategy embraces a circular economy, viewing waste as a resource rather than a burden. Recovery of energy and materials from waste that would otherwise reach landfills is now central to the plan, alongside recycling and treatment initiatives.

    Community recycling programmes have already been rolled out, including weekly buy-back schemes at transfer stations, where residents can exchange plastics, metals, paper, and even organic waste for cash. Plans are underway to expand these initiatives to Mushin, Ikeja, and all local government areas. LAWMA is also experimenting with lower-cost tricycle compactors for narrow streets and hard-to-reach areas. “A tricycle compactor costs about N7 million, compared to N250 million for a full truck. They may carry only one or two tonnes, but they improve coverage and create jobs,” Gbadegesin says.

    Collaboration is also critical. LAWMA is deepening partnerships with local governments, market associations, and transport unions. “Cleanliness must be seen as a cost of doing business,” Gbadegesin stresses. “If you make money at a bus stop or in a market, you must keep that environment clean.”

    Lagos is fast losing its clean status, warns AWAMN

    From the private sector, concerns are mounting that Lagos is losing ground it once painstakingly gained. Dr. Olugbenga Adebola, President of the Association of Waste Managers of Nigeria (AWAMN), warns that weak enforcement, inconsistent policy, and inadequate government support are steadily eroding decades of progress. “There was a time Lagos moved from being one of the dirtiest cities in the world to one of the cleanest in Africa,” Adebola recalls. “By the end of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s tenure as governor, Lagos had won awards and became a model for other states and African countries. We should not be back at this level.”

    Adebola stresses that waste management is capital-intensive and largely private-sector driven. Investors will only engage where returns are assured. Currently, poor compliance with laws requiring households to register with PSP operators is a major problem. “Those who refuse to pay are often the same people dumping waste on highways and in drainages, destroying the city’s aesthetics,” he notes.

    Population pressure compounds the challenge. Lagos attracts millions of daily visitors, who generate vast quantities of waste. “Lagos is catering to a massive population with a relatively limited budget,” Adebola says. He renews calls for special federal status to reflect the city’s unique burden. He also criticises the reliance on ageing dumpsites: “Olusosun is almost 40 years old. We should have moved from burying waste to treating it. Waste is not waste unless you waste it.”

    More than half of Africa’s waste stream is organic and can be converted into fertiliser, biogas, or biomethane, while high-calorific waste can be turned into refuse-derived fuel. Globally, governments subsidise waste management as a public good. “Here, operators struggle with bank loans at 29–30 per cent interest. That is not sustainable,” Adebola warns. Poor waste management, he stresses, is a form of “pre-healthcare failure,” directly linked to malaria, cholera, dysentery, and Lassa fever. Without subsidies, grants, and affordable financing, Lagos risks losing hard-won gains.

    Inflation is making matters worse. Foreign-used compactor trucks that sold for N8–N10 million a few years ago now cost between N55 million and N60 million. “This is the reality we are facing,” Adebola says. “That is why we are calling on the Federal Government, and on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to establish special funding to support waste management. Without intervention, the gains we once made will continue to slip away.”

    As Lagos searches for solutions—from expanded recycling and tricycle compactors to waste-to-energy initiatives—the message from both regulators and operators is clear: a clean city cannot be achieved by trucks and laws alone. Consistent policy, sustained investment, and, above all, a shift in public behaviour are essential. For a megacity already straining under its own success, how Lagos manages its waste will ultimately determine its health, longevity, and economic resilience.

  • LAWMA: waste crisis more behavioural than operational

    LAWMA: waste crisis more behavioural than operational

    Across Lagos, piles of uncollected refuse are becoming an unsettling symbol of a megacity under strain. From residential streets to commercial hubs, the sight and smell of waste are rekindling public health fears and environmental anxiety. Yet officials insist the crisis is not merely logistical. It is a complex mix of population pressure, rising costs, weak compliance, and human behaviour—factors that will determine whether Africa’s largest city regains control of its waste or slides backwards in the years ahead

    Across several parts of the Lagos metropolis, residents say frustration is mounting as refuse heaps accumulate on streets and open spaces, heightening fears of environmental degradation and public health risks. For the Lagos Waste Management Authority (LAWMA), however, the problem extends beyond logistics; it is as much behavioural as it is operational.

    “Lagos is one of the largest megacities in the world, with a projected population of about 27 million,” said the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of LAWMA, Dr. Muyiwa Gbadegesin. “Each resident generates roughly half a kilogramme of waste daily. When you do the arithmetic, that amounts to between 13,000 and 15,000 tonnes of waste every single day.”

    Gbadegesin explained that the state operates a structured waste management system anchored on public-private partnerships. About 450 Private Sector Participant (PSP) operators are responsible for collecting refuse from households, markets, and commercial premises across Lagos’ 377 political wards. “On average, there is one PSP operator per ward, although larger wards have more. Over time, however, rapid population growth and rising infrastructure costs have placed enormous strain on the system,” he said.

    Financing, he noted, remains a critical constraint. “A new compactor truck now costs about N250 million. That makes it difficult to attract fresh investment, though it also presents an opportunity if the right framework is put in place.” Beyond collection challenges, Lagos is grappling with a more complex dilemma: waste disposal. Major landfill sites, including Olusosun and Soluos, are nearing or have reached full capacity, prompting complaints from host communities and intensifying public health concerns. Soluos, located close to Alimosho General Hospital, was shut down after becoming dangerously overloaded, forcing operators to travel longer distances to disposal sites as far as Badagry.

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    “The closure of a landfill cre ates ripple effects,” Gbadegesin said. “PSP operators have to travel farther, spend more time at dump sites, and return later to complete collections. When trucks break down or are delayed, residents often dump refuse on the roads. At that point, LAWMA has no choice but to step in.”

    To manage the strain, LAWMA currently deploys about 100 trucks around the clock across 44 operational routes, clearing illegal dump sites, blocked drainages, and accumulated waste. But the scale of the challenge far outstrips existing capacity. “One hundred trucks are not enough for a city of this size,” Gbadegesin admitted. “Ideally, Lagos requires at least 1,000 compactor trucks, with another 1,000 as backup. Over the next 10 years, we plan to acquire between 100 and 200 trucks annually to meet that target.”

    In parallel, the authority is pursuing the development of at least 20 transfer loading stations across the metropolis to reduce the distance waste must travel before final disposal or treatment. Enforcement has also been significantly intensified. LAWMA has expanded its enforcement teams from one to four, covering key corridors including Orile to Badagry, Western Avenue to Ikorodu, Lagos Island to Epe, and other strategic routes. “We are increasingly becoming an enforcement agency,” Gbadegesin said. “We are even considering becoming a uniformed agency if that is what it will take. Every day, we arrest individuals who dump waste illegally and prosecute them through mobile courts. By law, every household must register with a PSP operator and pay its waste bill. Failure to comply carries consequences.”

    However, he stressed that enforcement alone cannot solve Lagos’ waste problem. Central to LAWMA’s strategy is waste reduction, reuse, and recycling. “Ninety per cent of what people throw away has value to someone. Throwing waste away is, quite literally, throwing money away,” he said.

    In line with this thinking, Lagos has unveiled a comprehensive long-term waste management strategy that marks a fundamental shift in how the city views its refuse. Moving beyond collection and disposal, the new roadmap prioritises a circular economy—one in which waste is treated as a resource capable of being reinvested into the local economy. A core element of this vision is recovery: extracting energy and materials from waste that would otherwise end up in landfills. While reduction and recycling remain priorities, the strategy underscores the role of energy recovery in building a sustainable future. “Every piece of waste represents a potential resource,” Gbadegesin noted.

    “We will embrace a waste management system that is user-friendly, with programmes and facilities that balance community needs with environmental protection,” he said, adding that the state is exploring new markets and cutting-edge technologies to convert waste into power and usable products.

    Already, LAWMA has rolled out community recycling initiatives, including weekly buy-back programmes at transfer stations where residents can exchange plastics, metals, paper, and even organic waste for cash. Plans are underway to expand the initiative to more locations, including Mushin and Ikeja, and to establish recycling collection centres in every local government area. The agency is also piloting lower-cost solutions such as tricycle compactors designed for narrow streets and hard-to-reach communities. “A tricycle compactor costs about N7 million, compared to N250 million for a full compactor truck. They may carry only one or two tonnes, but they improve coverage and create jobs,” Gbadegesin said. LAWMA plans to lease hundreds of these units to young entrepreneurs and former cart pushers under a regulated framework.

    Beyond infrastructure, the agency is deepening collaboration with local governments, market associations, and transport unions. “We cannot work in isolation,” Gbadegesin said. “Cleanliness must be seen as a cost of doing business. If you make money at a bus stop or in a market, you must keep that environment clean.”

    Gbadegesin linked poor sanitation directly to public health outcomes, warning that environmental neglect carries deadly consequences. “Nigeria’s life expectancy is around 52 years. Many people die prematurely because of environmental factors—the air they breathe, the food they eat, and the waste around them. Caring for your environment is fundamental to living a healthy life,” he said.

  • AWAMN: weak enforcement, poor support undermining years of progress

    AWAMN: weak enforcement, poor support undermining years of progress

    From the private sector, however, concerns are growing that Lagos is losing ground it once painstakingly gained. The President of the Association of Waste Managers of Nigeria (AWAMN), Dr. Olugbenga Adebola, cautioned that policy inconsistency, weak enforcement, and insufficient government support are steadily eroding decades of progress. “There was a time when Lagos moved from being one of the dirtiest cities in the world to one of the cleanest in Africa,” Adebola recalled. “By the end of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s tenure as governor, Lagos had won awards and became a model for other states and African countries. We should not be back at this level.”

    Adebola stressed that waste management is a capital-intensive, private-sector-driven business. “This is not a Father Christmas service. Investors will only come where there is certainty of returns. At the moment, the enabling environment is not encouraging,” he said. He pointed to poor compliance with laws requiring households to register with and pay PSP operators. “Those who refuse to pay are often the same people dumping waste on highways and in drainages, and that is what destroys the city’s aesthetics,” he noted.

    Population pressure, he added, has compounded the challenge. As West Africa’s economic hub, Lagos attracts millions of daily visitors who generate large volumes of waste. “Lagos is catering to a massive population with a relatively limited budget,” Adebola said, renewing calls for special federal status for the state to reflect its unique burden. He also criticised the continued reliance on ageing dumpsites. “Olusosun is almost 40 years old. We should have moved from burying waste to treating waste. Waste is not waste unless you waste it,” he said.

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    According to Adebola, more than half of Africa’s waste stream is organic and can be converted into fertiliser, biogas, or biomethane, while high-calorific waste can be processed into refuse-derived fuel. Globally, he noted, governments subsidise waste management because it is a public good. “Here, operators are struggling with bank loans at 29 or 30 per cent interest. That is not sustainable.” He warned that poor waste management represents a form of “pre-healthcare failure,” directly linked to malaria, cholera, dysentery, and Lassa fever. Without subsidies, grants, and affordable financing, he cautioned, Lagos risks squandering the gains it once achieved.

    As Lagos explores solutions ranging from expanded recycling to waste-to-energy initiatives, the message from both regulators and operators is clear: a clean city cannot be delivered by trucks and laws alone. It requires consistent policy, sustained investment, and, above all, a shift in public behaviour. For a megacity already straining under its own success, how it manages its waste may ultimately determine its health, longevity, and economic resilience.

    He also highlighted the impact of inflation on equipment costs, noting that foreign-used compactor trucks that sold for about N8–N10 million a few years ago now cost between N55 million and N60 million. “This is the reality we are facing,” Adebola said. “That is why we are calling on the Federal Government, and on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, our grand patron, to establish special funding to support waste management. Without such intervention, the gains we once made will continue to slip away.”

  • All eyes on banks as N4.14 trillion recapitalisation drive heats up

    All eyes on banks as N4.14 trillion recapitalisation drive heats up

    The ongoing recapitalisation of banks ranks among the most ambitious reforms undertaken by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under Governor Olayemi Cardoso. The initiative reflects the apex bank’s commitment to regulatory excellence and a stronger financial system. So far, 20 of the 44 banks have met the minimum capital requirement, with lenders expected to raise a combined N4.14 trillion by the March 31 deadline. Assistant Editor COLLINS NWEZE reports that the exercise underscores the CBN’s resolve to build a resilient banking sector

    In less than three months, the ongoing recapitalisation of Nigerian banks through capital raising is expected to be concluded, with an estimated N4.14 trillion projected to be mobilised across the sector by the time the exercise is completed. One of the most significant outcomes of the programme is the emergence of stronger, better-capitalised banks with the capacity to undertake large-scale transactions capable of supporting businesses and driving broader economic growth. By strengthening balance sheets, the exercise is designed to position Nigerian banks to play a more decisive role in financing critical sectors of the economy.

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), under the leadership of its Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, has consistently maintained that sustainable economic growth is impossible without a robust and well-capitalised financial system. In line with this conviction, the apex bank is working to align monetary and fiscal policies in support of the Federal Government’s ambition to expand business activity and grow the economy to a $1 trillion valuation.

    For the CBN leadership, this ambition is inseparable from the need to entrench a strong culture of compliance and reinforce risk management frameworks across the financial system. Cardoso has emphasised that protecting the integrity of Nigeria’s banking sector while enhancing its resilience and credibility—both domestically and internationally—remains a central priority. To this end, the apex bank has reaffirmed its commitment to sustaining a transparent, stable, and resilient financial system by tightening regulatory oversight and strengthening compliance and risk management practices across Nigerian financial institutions.

    Milestones assessment for recapitalisation

    Ahead of the March 31 deadline, Cardoso, in his last public update on the recapitalisation programme, confirmed that 16 banks have met their new capital requirements. He also indicated that 27 other banks were raising funds. Deputy Governor, Economic Policy, CBN, Dr. Muhammad Abdullahi, who spoke last week at Nigeria Economic Summit (NESG) forum said not less than 20 banks have met the new capital requirements.

    Nigeria currently has 44 deposit-taking banks across various licence categories. At least seven other banks are weighing the option of scaling down their licence from national to regional bank, given the concentration of their operations and the almost equal ubiquitous advantage offered by Nigeria’s expansive digital banking. Another bank, which currently holds an international banking licence, indicated over the weekend that it could be scaling down to a national banking license in the immediate period before the deadline, while pursuing further recapitalisation to boost its capital base and regain its international banking authorisation.

    The apex bank categorises banks into three broad categories – international, national, and regional – based on their financial strength. Under the recapitalisation guidelines, beyond raising funds, banks are required to subject their new equity funds to capital verification before the clearance of the allotment proposal and release of the funds to the bank for onward completion of the offer process and addition of the new capital to its capital base.

    The CBN is the final signatory in a tripartite capital verification committee that included the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC). The committee is saddled with scrutinising new funds being raised by banks under the ongoing banking sector recapitalisation programme.

    N4.14 trillion to be raised

    With expected N4.14 trillion new capital being raised and 20 banks already met the minimum capital requirement, this year will turn out a significant milestone in the economy. The CBN had, on March 28, 2024, announced a two-year bank recapitalisation exercise which commenced on April 1, 2024. The recapitalisation plan requires minimum capital of N500 billion, N200 billion and N50 billion for commercial banks with international, national and regional licences respectively. The 24-month timeline for compliance ends on March 31, 2026.

    Cardoso said the apex bank will be enforcing stronger governance, greater transparency, and firmer accountability to protect raised funds. He disclosed that several banks have already met the new capital thresholds, while others are advancing steadily and are well positioned to comfortably meet the March 31, 2026 deadline. Banks meeting or exceeding the new requirements is a clear testament to the depth, resilience and capacity of Nigeria’s banking sector,” Cardoso stated.

    The CBN has equally established a dedicated Compliance Department, now fully operational, with mandates covering financial crime supervision, market conduct, enterprise security, corporate governance, and Environmental, social, and governance (ESG). According to the CBN boss, the process of enforcing stronger controls on raised funds is ongoing with the redesigning of the credit‑risk framework expected to ensure that raised funds are well managed by financial institutions. Previously, banks were awash with post recapitalisation funds, with analysts predicting that without proper risk management policies and regulatory controls, chances of misapplying such raised funds through risky loans remain high.

    To guard against such occurrence, Cardoso stated: “As recapitalisation progresses, we are redesigning the credit‑risk framework to enforce stronger governance, greater transparency, and firmer accountability across the sector. We are determined to break the boom‑and‑bust cycle that has accompanied past recapitalisation efforts.”

    Already, the CBN Credit Risk Management System (CRMS) is web-enabled, allowing banks and other stakeholders to dial directly into the CRMS database to render statutory returns or conduct status enquiry on borrowers. Also, the CBN is in the process of integrating the CRMS with other systems operating in the banks to make it more efficient.

    In a report titled: “Nigeria’s macro headwinds trigger bank recapitalisation” Deloitte, a global accounting and audit firm, put the total funds to be raised in the recapitalisation exercise which ends on March 31, 2026 at N4.14 trillion. It said the upward review of banks’ capital base from N50 billion to N500 billion depending on the type of licence held by the bank, remains an essential action required to boost capital adequacy needs of the Nigerian financial industry.

    Nigeria banks’ capital adequacy, the report says, has been significantly impacted by macroeconomic challenges such as high inflation and interest rates, currency volatility and forex illiquidity. “The upward revision will ensure that Nigerian banks have the capacity to take on bigger risks and stay afloat amid both domestic and external shocks. It also means increased liquidity position of banks, which will help broaden their loss-bearing capabilities,” the report said.

    Continuing, Cardoso said Nigeria’s banking system remains fundamentally sound and resilient, a cornerstone of our financial stability. “At the same time, we remain vigilant to emerging risks, including cyber threats, credit-concentration pressures, and operational vulnerabilities. These are being addressed through strengthened risk-based supervision and our ongoing transition to Basel III, which will further bolster resilience, improve capital quality, and strengthen liquidity monitoring,” he said.

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    The CBN boss disclosed that with just four months to the conclusion of the recapitalisation exercise, the recapitalisation process remains firmly on track. “As we strengthen the capacity of our banks, stress-testing this year confirms that Nigeria’s banking sector remains fundamentally robust. Key financial soundness indicators overwhelmingly satisfied prudential benchmarks during the year,” Cardoso added.

    He said the apex bank is reinforcing operational discipline to ensure the financial system serves all Nigerians reliably. “Our starting point was a comprehensive, end‑to‑end review of the entire cash lifecycle: from production, to transportation, to distribution, and eventual access by consumers. This holistic assessment enabled us to address root causes rather than symptoms.

    “As a result, we recalibrated our cash‑printing models, issued guidelines on the optimal ATM‑to‑card ratio, strengthened requirements for CBN approval before ATM or branch closures, enforced sanctions on banks whose ATMs fail to dispense cash, and intensified supervision of payment agents and POS operators nationwide,” he said.

    Speaking recently to bankers, Cardoso said the ethics and professionalism of bankers and treasurers are under constant scrutiny. According to him, the apex bank introduced the FX Global Code for all authorized dealers and market participants to ensure full compliance with regulations. He urged the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) to take the lead in upholding and demonstrating the highest standards in the industry. “At the Central Bank, we have intensified surveillance of market activities to ensure compliance and eliminate bad actors who attempt to undermine the system. Together, we must build a market based on strong governance and transparency. As regulators, we will maintain a zero-tolerance approach to compliance violations,” he said.

    The Group Managing Director of United Bank for Africa (UBA), Mr. Oliver Alawuba described the ongoing CBN bank recapitalisation policy as both timely and essential in positioning the financial system to meet the demands of a growing and globally competitive economy. According to Alawuba, the initiative is expected to boost the resilience of the banking sector by strengthening its capacity to withstand economic shocks such as inflation, currency volatility and global geopolitical disruptions. He noted that the policy will also place Nigerian banks on a stronger footing to finance the country’s long-term economic transformation, including funding of large-scale infrastructure and industrial projects.

    Alawuba further stressed that the recapitalisation policy goes beyond regulatory compliance. It is a forward-looking strategy aimed at equipping Nigerian banks to operate at the scale and sophistication required by a trillion-dollar economy. He said the move would enhance the sector’s ability to support traditional economic drivers such as oil and gas, agriculture and manufacturing, as well as emerging sectors such as fintech, green energy and infrastructure development. “Nigerian banks need adequate capital buffers to meet the evolving demands of these sectors. Without this, the industry cannot effectively rise to the challenge,” he said.

    Building resilient banking system

    Cardoso earlier explained that within the banking sector, the sector remains robust with key indicators reflecting a resilient system. “The non-performing loan ratio remains within the prudential benchmark of five per cent, showcasing strong credit risk management. The banking sector liquidity ratio comfortably exceeds the regulatory floor of 30 per cent, a level which ensures banks are maintaining adequate cash flow to meet the needs of customers and their operations. The recent stress test conducted also reaffirmed the continued strength of our banking system,” he said.

    To ensure that our banking system can effectively support the growth of our economy, efforts to strengthen banks’ capital buffers were announced in 2023 with a two-year implementation window. “I am pleased to note that a significant number of banks have raised the required capital through right issues and public offerings well ahead of the 2026 deadline! I believe that the banking sector is in a strong position to support Nigeria’s economic recovery by enabling access to credit for MSMEs and supporting investment in critical sectors of our economy,” he said.

    Cardoso explained that the banking sector remains robust, with key indicators reflecting a resilient system. “The non-performing loan ratio remains within the prudential benchmark of five per cent, showcasing strong credit risk management. The banking sector liquidity ratio comfortably exceeds the regulatory floor of 30 per cent, a level which ensures banks are maintaining adequate cash flow to meet the needs of customers and their operations. The recent stress test conducted also reaffirmed the continued strength of our banking system.

     “I am pleased to note that a significant number of banks have raised the required capital through rights issues and public offerings well ahead of the 2026 deadline. I believe that the banking sector is in a strong position to support Nigeria’s economic recovery by enabling access to credit for MSMES and supporting investment in critical sectors of our economy,” he said.

  • Breaking the cycle of strikes in varsities

    Breaking the cycle of strikes in varsities

    For decades, Nigeria’s public universities have been trapped in a weary cycle of strikes, broken agreements, and institutional paralysis. That a fragile calm now prevails—and that a doctor, not a career education bureaucrat, helped broker it—raises a compelling question: has one of Nigeria’s most stubborn national jinxes finally been broken?

    In the lexicon of Nigeria’s university education system, few terms recur with such weary frequency as deadlock, stalemate and impasse. They hover like permanent storm clouds over labour relations, policy reform and institutional renewal, shaping expectations before negotiations even begin. Nowhere has this sense of paralysis been more deeply entrenched than in the bruising, distrust-laden relationship between the Federal Government and the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU).

    For decades, their encounters obeyed a bleakly familiar script: promises were made, agreements ceremonially signed, expectations raised—and then, inevitably, collapsed. Strikes would follow. Campuses would empty. Academic calendars would fracture beyond repair. Students—millions of them—were left stranded in a limbo that stole time, ambition, and confidence. Over the years, the conflict acquired a near-mythical quality. It was spoken of as cursed, as though Nigeria’s higher education system laboured under a stubborn jinx—impervious to reason, dialogue, or even the most earnest gestures of goodwill. The very idea of lasting peace between government and ASUU came to be treated as naïve, if not delusional.

    It is against this troubled backdrop that the emergence of Dr. Maruf Tunji Alausa, a nephrologist by training, as Minister of Education assumes significance far beyond the particulars of biography. Drafted from the Ministry of Health to succeed Prof Tahir Mamman, a respected legal scholar, Alausa’s appointment signalled a conscious departure from familiar patterns rather than a routine change of guard. It was, in every sense, a deliberate rupture.

    Mamman’s tenure, though underpinned by intellectual gravitas and a genuine commitment to reform, came to be defined by procedural caution and, in the eyes of critics, a debilitating inertia. His administration struggled to escape the gravitational pull of Nigeria’s chronic university crises. Negotiations with the ASUU dragged on inconclusively, yielding agreements that offered only temporary relief. By contrast, Alausa arrived with an ethos forged far from faculty boardrooms and labour communiqués. His professional formation lay in the unforgiving world of medicine, where indecision can be fatal and systems failures are traced not to rhetoric but to root causes.

    As a nephrologist, he was trained to manage chronic, complex conditions—ailments that do not yield to superficial treatment but demand sustained, methodical intervention. In that sense, Nigeria’s education sector was a familiar patient: long-suffering, poorly managed, and repeatedly patched rather than healed. Where others saw an intractable political problem, Alausa approached a systemic pathology—one requiring diagnosis, trust-building, and disciplined follow-through. Against this backdrop, the new agreement emerges like a long-awaited dawn over Nigeria’s embattled public universities.

    That President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was willing to take this risk speaks to a defining instinct of his administration: a readiness to unsettle inherited certainties and challenge the comfort of familiar formulas. Moving Dr. Alausa from the Ministry of Health to the Ministry of Education was not a routine reshuffle dressed up as reform; it was a statement of intent. It signalled a quiet but decisive admission that the old approaches had run their course and that the crisis in Nigeria’s university system required an imagination unconstrained by precedent. Critics questioned the logic, wondering what a nephrologist could possibly bring to a sector long dominated by academics and career administrators. Supporters spoke, cautiously at first, of cross-sectoral innovation. With the benefit of hindsight, history is likely to record the move as a turning point.

    What initially looked like a gamble has, by any fair assessment, paid off—most dramatically in the successful renegotiation and signing of a new agreement between the Federal Government and ASUU, and in the relative calm that has since settled over Nigeria’s public universities. In a sector where peace has often been fleeting and promises brittle, calm itself has become a meaningful achievement.

    The agreement has been widely described as historic, and not without justification. After years of brinkmanship, broken trust and ritualised conflict, the new pact marks a clear departure from the cycle of stopgap concessions and deferred obligations that defined earlier settlements. It addresses, with unusual breadth and seriousness, the three pillars most corroded by decades of uncertainty: welfare, funding and trust. At its core is a 40 per cent salary review, an explicit acknowledgment that academic labour in Nigeria has been systematically undervalued. For lecturers whose real incomes had been steadily hollowed out by inflation, delayed payments and eroded purchasing power, the adjustment is more than financial relief. It is symbolic recognition—an affirmation that intellectual labour carries dignity and worth in the eyes of the state.

    That symbolism matters. Universities are sustained as much by morale as by money, and few things have damaged morale more than the sense that academic work was taken for granted. The clearing of long-overdue entitlements and the introduction of the Consolidated Academic Tools Allowance represent a further shift in how the state understands the nature of academic labour. Research, publishing, conference participation, and professional engagement are no longer framed as optional extras to be self-financed by underpaid lecturers, but as essential inputs into national development. This reframing is subtle, yet profound. It asserts that universities are not glorified secondary schools focused on rote instruction, but engines of knowledge production whose outputs shape policy, drive innovation, and determine global competitiveness.

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    Equally consequential is the agreement’s attention to infrastructure and research capacity. For years, Nigeria’s public universities functioned in conditions that bordered on institutional neglect. Laboratories froze in time, libraries slipped into obsolescence, hostels decayed, and lecture halls bore the scars of prolonged disrepair. Teaching and learning persisted, but often by sheer force of habit and personal sacrifice. The renewed commitment to revitalising physical infrastructure, alongside the proposed establishment of a National Research Council mandated to channel at least one per cent of GDP into research, innovation, and commercialisation, signals an understanding that has long been missing from policy circles: no university system can thrive on goodwill alone. Knowledge production demands sustained, predictable investment, not episodic gestures made in moments of crisis.

    Governance and autonomy—perennial flashpoints in relations between government and ASUU—also receive careful attention. Strengthened pension arrangements, professorial allowances, and protections against victimisation speak to a deeper respect for academic careers as lifelong commitments rather than disposable contracts. The creation of structured mechanisms for dialogue, designed to detect and defuse tensions before they metastasise into strikes, reflects hard lessons drawn from decades of institutional failure. Most tellingly, the inclusion of a three-year review clause embeds accountability into the agreement itself. It acknowledges, implicitly, that reform is not a proclamation to be announced and forgotten, but a process that must be revisited, assessed, and refined.

    Reactions from stakeholders have been cautiously hopeful. ASUU President, Prof Chris Piwuna, described the pact as historic, while rightly emphasising that its promise will only be realised through faithful implementation. Trust, after all, cannot be decreed into existence; it is accumulated slowly, through consistency and action. Students, long treated as collateral damage in protracted industrial disputes, have greeted the prospect of academic continuity with a guarded optimism born of repeated disappointment. Parents, employers, and international partners have taken note of a rare moment of stability in a sector better known for upheaval and uncertainty.

    Yet the agreement, significant as it is, captures only part of Dr. Alausa’s impact. Since assuming office, he has introduced a pattern of governance that bears the unmistakable imprint of medical training. There is a relentless emphasis on data, timelines, and measurable outcomes. Problems are framed less as ideological battlegrounds than as operational failures requiring diagnosis and correction. Whether in streamlining regulatory processes, strengthening monitoring frameworks, or rethinking funding models, his interventions display a clinician’s bias for protocols, evidence and accountability.

    His background as a board-certified nephrologist is not incidental to this approach; it is foundational. Medicine trains its practitioners to listen closely, to distinguish symptoms from underlying causes, and to appreciate that trust between doctor and patient is indispensable to healing. In negotiations with ASUU, this sensibility was palpable. Rather than defaulting to adversarial postures or rhetorical brinkmanship, Alausa invested in sustained engagement, clarity of communication, and incremental confidence-building. He recognised that decades of broken promises had left scars, and that reassurance would ring hollow unless matched by credible, observable action.

    The relative calm now prevailing across Nigeria’s public universities is therefore not accidental. It is the product of a leadership style that treats the education sector as a living system—fragile, interdependent, and vulnerable to shock, yet capable of recovery if handled with seriousness and respect. It is far too early to declare final victory. Nigeria’s education sector has tasted optimism before, only for it to evaporate under fiscal strain, shifting political priorities, or the familiar weight of institutional inertia. History counsels restraint. And yet, for the first time in many years, there is a palpable sense that a long-running cycle has been interrupted. If the new agreement with ASUU endures, Dr. Alausa may well be remembered as the unlikely physician who correctly diagnosed a chronic illness in Nigeria’s education system and, against considerable odds, began the process of treatment.

    No single agreement—however carefully negotiated or widely praised—can undo decades of underinvestment or instantly restore Nigerian universities to global competitiveness. The real test of this moment lies not in the signing of documents but in their execution: in whether commitments are honoured, review mechanisms respected, and channels of dialogue kept open long after the initial goodwill fades. In medicine, relapse is a constant risk when treatment protocols are abandoned midway. Policy is no different. What has been achieved is a break in an old pattern, not immunity from future conflict.

    Still, patterns matter. Jinxes are sustained not by fate but by repetition, by the quiet belief that alternatives are impossible. By showing that negotiation need not collapse into paralysis, that engagement can yield stability, Alausa has shifted expectations. That change, subtle as it may appear, is powerful. Once a system experiences relief, however tentative, returning to dysfunction becomes harder to defend.

    In this light, the image of the nephrologist as jinx breaker is more than metaphor. It reflects a deeper truth about governance in a time of national fatigue. Nigeria’s public institutions are not merely in crisis; they suffer from chronic conditions worsened by neglect and episodic intervention. What they require is sustained, competent care. If this lesson holds, then this episode will stand as proof that even the most entrenched jinxes can be broken—through diagnosis, discipline and the resolve to restore function where resignation once prevailed.