As Nigeria is set for general election, Correspondent TONY AKOWE examines the challenges confronting the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) ahead of the polls.
Though the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has assured Nigerians that it has concluded arrangements for a credible, free and fair election, events in the country are casting a long shadow over the election. Attacks on INEC offices and campaign train of candidates have continued unabated.
Of concern is the fact that nobody has been arrested for the growing incidence of violence that has trailed the campaigns so far, as well as the several attacks on INEC facilities. Despite several assurances by the security agents, there are no clear indications that the elections will be violence-free. The currency crisis that has plunged Nigerians into abject poverty as well as the unbaiting fuel situation in the country has the potential of affecting the outcome of the elections.
As part of efforts to assure Nigerians that they were prepared to conduct a credible poll, the agency carried to carry out a field test of the BIVAS machines, even though they initially tested them in the office and during the Osun and Ekiti governorship elections, The commission selected 436poling units from across the country. Two polling units were selected from each Senatorial zone of the country for the exercise which took place on Saturday, February 4, 2023.
Speaking after monitoring the mock accreditation exercise in the FCT, INEC Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu said with the success of the mock exercise, the commission was fully ready for the conduct of the 2023 general elections. While expressing satisfaction with the conduct of the exercise, he said reports from across the country indicate a huge success of the exercise, with each voter being accredited in under 30 seconds. He said: “The BVAS never fail anyone. As you have seen here, the machine never fails. I would not like to comment on a matter in court because it is subjudice. But in every situation, the commission learns from it and carries the experience towards improving the next process. We have learnt some lessons from what happened and one of the lessons is to be able to transmit the accreditation data.
“So, we have a sample result sheet that will transmit the accreditation data. But there is no formal result sheet here because people have not voted. On the INEC portal, we have created a new URL. We are going to transmit both the accreditation figures and election results on the day of the election. The two must tally. We are assuring Nigerians that on Election Day, both accreditation figures and actual votes cast will be transmitted simultaneously and accurately. What we intended to achieve is to test the integrity of the BVAS machines that we are going to deploy on Election Day. We are satisfied with the test that we carried out in our office. But we needed to test the machines in the field in readiness for the election bearing in mind that this is the first time we are deploying them for elections nationwide. We identified 436 polling units nationwide on the equality of the states of the federation, based on two local governments per Senatorial District and four polling units per local government and 16 polling units per state.
“Based on that, we have now deployed the machines. Voters will be verified, using their PVCs and authenticated, using their fingerprints of facial based on which they will be given the ballot paper on election day after successful accreditation. The machines have performed optimally. This is the report we are getting so far nationwide. We have also made contingency arrangements as we will do on Election Day.”
Speaker of the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila is one of those concerned about the increasing cases of violence across the country. Speaking specifically to elected officials, he said: “The security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government. The constitution obligates all of us who swear to serve in government to do everything to protect the lives and property of all citizens and promote their well-being above all else. This obligation is central to the governing contract between the government and the citizenry.”
The Team Leader of the EU Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria phase two programme, Rudolf Elbling is one of those concerned about the security situation in the country ahead of the general elections, especially the attacks on INEC facilities and personnel. He believes that the situation might significantly constitute a major threat to the general elections if not immediately addressed. He acknowledged the fact that elections have the potential to create unrest and instability for a country like Nigeria, warning that such unrest would not only be dangerous for Nigeria but for the whole of West Africa. Executive Director of the Centre for Democracy and Development, Idayat Hassan said that even though insecurity and political violence are not new to Nigeria’s election cycles, no election has been threatened by such widespread insecurity as is currently being witnessed across the country.
The chairman of INEC, Professor Mahmud Yakubu and his team have demonstrated their resolve to deliver the best election ever in the annals of Nigeria’s electoral history. The enormous task and challenges ahead require INEC to tighten its seatbelt for the sharp bends and narrow bridges it will be travelling before, during and after the election. The frequency of the chairman’s interaction with the media shows the readiness of INEC to leave no stone unturned in its resolve to ensure that a free and fair election is delivered. This approach has made INEC adopt a marketing concept approach of making the customer the king.
In this case, INEC has made the electorate the focus of its resolve to be just and equitable to all stakeholders in the election. He said further that attacks, burning and vandalisation of INEC offices in some parts of the country portend an ill will in the conduct of a peaceful election, but assured that security agencies have come on board while INEC is fully prepared for any eventuality.
Another challenge for INEC would be its ability to conduct elections in the volatile and security-prone states in the Northwest, the Northeast, the North-Central and the Southeast geopolitical zones. These are states where the bandits, Boko Haram and IPOB constitute a serious threat to the electoral process. It is heartwarming that the security agencies have resolved to give INEC all the support it needs for a smooth and uninterrupted election to take place in all the states of the federation, peacefully.
For this, the commission has assurances from the security agents. The National Security Adviser, Babagana Monguno, Service Chiefs led by the Chief of Defence Staff, Lucky Irabor and the Inspector General of Police has great words for the commission in this regard.
Monguno said security agents in the country will not allow anybody to scare Nigerians away from carrying out their civic responsibility. He said “We have done a lot in the last few months to put things in place. We have held meetings with the chairman of INEC who chair the interagency committee on election security. We know what we have on the ground. All of us who are the managers of securing the election process know our responsibility and what we are going to do. We are not in any way in doubt as to what our mission is.
“But we need to let the entire country know that agents of bad news, harbingers of all kinds of stories abound. We see things on social media and hear them on various platforms. If these things are intended to scare people, I want to dispel such illusions. Everybody that is concerned I’m carrying out his legitimate undertaking, casting his votes will do so in a secure atmosphere. Nigerians mustn’t be pushed to the limit where they will abandon their number one responsibility. I have confidence in the work the security agencies and the armed forces are doing. The Nigeria Police Force is the lead agent and it has assured all of us repeatedly during our meetings and engagement”. The Chief of Defence Staff, Lt. General Lucky Irabor said the Armed Forces was monitoring closely events in the country and will provide all necessary support to the police to ensure the conduct of a peaceful election.
The Inspector General of Police believes that the security agencies were fully prepared for the conduct of the elections. He said “I want to assure members of the public that the police and other security personnel are fully prepared to conduct the 2023 general election in a free, fair and credible manner. We will provide a level playing ground for Nigerians to exercise their franchise. We are aware of the situation in Nigeria in terms of crime and criminality as well as the general situation, particularly in the Southeast. We are prepared to checkmate the activities of those who do not want the election to take place while providing a level playing ground for this willing to exercise their franchise.”
The Electoral Act has however provided for circumstances that may lead to the postponement of an election. Section 24 (2) Act states that “where a date has been appointed for the holding of an election, and there is reason to believe that a serious breach of the peace is likely to occur if the election is proceeded with on that date or it is impossible to conduct the elections as a result of natural disasters or other emergencies, the commission may postpone the election and shall in respect of the area, or areas concerned, appoint another date for the holding of the postponed election, provided that such reason for the postponement is cogent and verifiable.”
Curiously, the law does not provide for the postponement of the election across the country. Media reports quoting an unnamed INEC official had indicated that there were possibilities of a two weeks shift in the date of the election. The official was quoted as saying that “the commission is doing all it can to stick to the announced dates but given the numerous challenges being witnessed across the country, such as the burning of our offices, insecurity challenges and attack on INEC officials, lingering fuel scarcity coupled with problems arising from the naira redesign, I won’t be surprised if the election is postponed by two weeks minimum”. This insinuation has been denied several times by the commission.
But a public affair analyst Jide Ojo believes that the major threat to the success of the elections is not the threat of violence, but cyber-attacks that might compromise the entire process. Ojo said that considering the American experience during the last elections, there is every reason to e concerned about the safety of the election technology-wise. He believes that there were reasons to believe that cyber experts were already in the country, working hard to compromise the system.
Samson Itodo, Executive Director of YIAGA Africa is one of those concerned about the success of the election. He told The Nation that the campaigns have gone on in fragrant disobedience to established norms and the laws of the land with visible attacks on political opponents. He said: “We have seen campaigns by the candidates for the Presidential elections throughout the country. We have seen them use traditional tools for campaigns such as rallies, town hall meetings and debates. But compared to other election seasons, what we have seen is not particularly different from what used to obtain in the past. If you check, all the major candidates have been conducting rallies and the rallies have been just fun fare events but lack substance. They don’t provide opportunities for people to engage. We have also seen town hall meetings that are not necessarily open to the public but organized with a predetermined audience without the opportunity for people to ask questions. The entire campaign season has been bereft of intense debate around policies.
However, Ezenwa Nwagwu, Executive Director of Peering Advocacy and Advancement Centre in Africa (PAACA) said the build-up to the 2023 general election was the off start of elections that were held in Ekiti and Osun. He said the two elections were a litmus test. Nwagwu said “We saw elections becoming more and more competitive. An undeniable legacy of President Buhari would be the signing of the 2022 Electoral Act which in a far-reaching sense raised the integrity quotient of our electoral process, especially with the introduction of technology. If the way the executive behaved is anything to go by, it has shifted the goalpost in a very significant way from where we used to have a President that would say it is a do or die. This President seems to consistently maintain the fact that he will not interfere and even when opposition parties win elections, he has been quick to congratulate them. In very significant ways, we have not seen the kind of tension that we use to see in past general elections. There seems to be some relative calmness. But apart from some of the states where the governors are misbehaving and it appears that the president is not able to call them to order. That is the challenge of the presidential system of government. The governors are lords to themselves. There is nothing the president can do to them. He can only persuade or warn. I think this president has manifestly shown his disinterestedness in the eventual outcome of the election.”
Nwagwu stressed that Nigerians should not allow politicians to determine the narratives. He added: “I always believe that communities and seasoned groups and organisations should be the ones setting the agenda. Since 1999, those who have ruled this country have read from the same textbook. They have not in any sense shifted from the market economy which all of the have sworn to. We have had different personalities implementing different programmes, completely taking government responsibility and shifting it to the private sector when indeed, you do not have a private sector. So, in terms of the campaign, if you look at the manifestos of all the political parties except for one or two, you will see that there is no place where they said they are going to expel poverty. They all make the same promises, but in the last 40 years, there has been complete abandonment of government responsibility.
“So, I think the people should have been setting the agenda for 2023 by calling attention to the fact that while public hospitals are deteriorating daily, we are having more private hospitals coming up. While the government is not funding public universities and public schools, we are having more and more private universities and private secondary schools. If we set that agenda as a people, then, we will not allow politicians to give us glossy manifestoes. So, if you are asking me about the campaign, I think we are going through a hollow ritual.”
But the INEC chairman is confident that the election will be successful despite the challenges in the land.