Sir: A major decision of the July 30 emergency Summit of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is the seven-day ultimatum, which the regional leaders handed the coup makers in Niger to either release and reinstate deposed President Mohamed Bazoum or face “all necessary measures, including the use of force, to restore constitutional order.”
The African Union has also issued a similar threat giving the coup leaders a two-week ultimatum to reverse the military takeover, which has elicited multiple interests in an unravelling geopolitical power game.
Niger is no stranger to military putsches, having experienced about seven failed or successful ones since its independence from France. The latest coup is also the seventh in the West and Central Africa since 2020, when Col Assimi Goita led Mali young military officers to topple the government now late President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita. Goita has since assumed leadership of a foundering transition programme in Mali after masterminding a second coup in 2021.
Army officers in Guinea Conakry and Burkina Faso have followed the Mali example by toppling elected presidents in their countries with Niger, now the fourth of the 15-nation ECOWAS member where the military have seized political power.
It is imperative to send a very strong signal to the Niger junta that military coup is condemnable. But at the same time, Abuja must be vigilant to avoid being pressured or dragged into a proxy war. Both countries share long borders and historical ties.
While some of the multiple sanctions announced against landlocked Niger could put pressure on the coup leaders, if effectively applied, kinetic intervention remains a high-risk option.
The socio-economic and political environment in Niger remains grave and could get worse fuelled by insecurity and mistrust between Bazoum’s Arab tribe and other dominant non-Arab ethnic groups.
According to the UN Human development latest report, Niger is one of the poorest nations in the World despite producing about five percent of the World’s uranium output, in addition to boasting other mineral resources such as cement, coal, gold, gypsum, limestone, salt, silver, tin and oil.
Unfortunately, these minerals are mined by foreign companies who use their huge profits to develop their countries, while Nigeriens wallow in poverty. Host communities of the mines also endure huge burdens of radiation, with the attendant deadly health conditions from the mining activities.
There is also widespread public disaffection with the Bazoum administration, as seen by the arson and wanton destruction of properties by protesters at his political party headquarters in Niamey a day after the latest coup.
Bazoum is reported to have fallen out of favour with his immediate predecessor in office President Mahamadou Issoufou. Coup leader Brig.-Gen Tchiani has served as Head of the Presidential Guard under both presidents, but diplomatic sources disclosed that Bazoum had planned a major reshuffle of the Niger military hierarchy before the coup makers struck.
Ensuring Bazoum’s safety and restoring constitutional order in Niger is a complex mission akin to extricating a charging bull from a well-stocked China shop. Any miscalculation could be costly.
But it is doable, if all sides could demonstrate sincerity, commitment and mutual respects in negotiations with unbiased conflict management and resolution strategy, and with the interest of Niger citizens as the major priority
The international community has no appetite for military coups, which are an aberration in the contemporary world governed by the principles of multiparty democracy.
ECOWAS, AU, and partners, including the UN and EU must act firmly and proactively without favour or bias, against any disposition toward change of government through unconstitutional means, including change of constitutions, election rigging, corruption, suppression of opposition and violation of citizens’ human rights by individuals, organizations, or governments.
- Paul Ejime, Lagos.