Today is significant in the life of Anambra State. Voters are expected to elect a successor to Governor Willy Obiano, whose two terms of eight years will expire in February, next year.
All is not well with the state, and indeed, the entire Southeast region. Ordinarily, the struggle for power among gladiators often unleash its peculiar tension. But, in recent time, the agitators for secession under the banner of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) has been on the prowl, challenging legitimate authories to a duel and enforcing an illegal stay-at-home.
In the last few days, stakeholders have been begging the outlawed group, led by Nnamdi Kanu, who is facing charges in court, to sheathe its sword. There was a temporary breakthrough on Thursday. Respite could only come when the group assured that it would release the entire zone from the bondage of apprehension.
Yet, the fear of disruption has not totally fizzled out, despite the assurance by security agencies. It is being fueled by the fact that security agents who could not halt the onslaught of IPOB before the exercise may not succeed in fostering security on poll day if miscreants pretending to be IPOB enforcers come to the stage. But, Inspector General Usman Baba has warned that it is risky for hoodlums to dare the police today.
The success of the poll or otherwise has implications for the future of democracy in the state and the region.
No fewer than 18 political parties are fielding candidates for the critical poll. There are 2.52 voters. Of the 5,720 polling units, 86 units, representing 1.5 percent, will not participate, due to the recent polling unit conversion.
It is evident that only four parties are really in the contest-All Progressive Grand Alliance(APGA), All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Zenith Labour Party(ZLP). Other parties are like spectators.
The key political players have links in these major parties. Majority of flagbearers are defectors. Their manifesto are similar. What will make the difference today are their personal structures, their financial muscles and the strength of their platforms.
Crisis-ridden APGA is struggling to retain power. Its candidate, Prof. Charles Soludo, wordsmith and formerCentral Bank Governor, is popular. He defected from PDP to the party. APGA has been the dominant party, leaning on the name and memory of its illustrious founder, Dim(Ikemba) Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu. Since 2007, it has been the party to beat, despite the defection of some big wigs to other parties. Will it be different today?
APGA fears APC, being the ruling party at the centre. Although it is also a divided fold, the party has been the major beneficiary of defections from either APGA or PDP. Its candidate, Andy Uba, is a one-time senior presidential assistant, governor for 17 days and two-time senator. He is full of nostalgia as a former occupant of Anambra State House. It was tragic that Uba won the 2007 poll that was conducted in error. Although he seems to lack adequate verbal facility, he is a great strategist. It is ironical that he will be struggling in today’s election with Soludo, who he assisted to become CBN Governor during the Obasanjo administration.
Read Also: Anambra Poll: DIG, AIG resign, redeployed
PDP wants to use its success in the poll to signal its determination to also bounce back in Ekiti, Osun and Abuja in 2023. Its candidate, Valentine Ozigbo, is optimistic. However, to APGA and APC, it is nothing short of day dreaming.
The ZLP candidate came into the show because he claimed that he was excluded from the shadow poll in his former party. The candidate, Dr. Obiora Okonkwo, a wealthy aviation operator, knows his onions.
Since the days of former Governor Peter Obi, religion has been a dominant factor in Anambra election. Thus, candidates have devised methods of flaunting their membership of either Catholic or Anglican churches for partisan reasons. The church factor cannot be neutralised. But, the church is now divided and each denomination can hardly project a consensus candidate.
Certainly, the poll will not be a walk over for any party. The competition is stiff, and ego is involved.
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman Prof Mahmood Yakubu has promised to conduct a free and fair poll. The parties have no cause to doubt him. But, it is up to the parties to make the dream of a credible poll a reality by advising their members to shun unruly behaviour.
It is noteworthy that candidates and party leaders have signed a peace pact before the Abdulsalami Abubakar Committee . This is meant to reduce inter-party tension. It has become a ritual. It is because politicians still see election as a do-or-die.
IPOB has dissociated itself from the inexplicable sit-at-home. The order was meant to be in force from November 5 to 10. This is worrisome to stakeholders. Who is behind the threat?
Southeast Governors’ Forum, led by David Umahi of Ebonyi State, described the order of the non-state actor as illegal and violent.
The regional mouthpiece, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, and notable clerics from the zone have called for dialogue and political solution to the IPOB crisis.
But, Umahi has directed attention to another element of worsening insecurity, which has gone beyond IPOB. He said cultists, armed robbers and kidnappers are on the prowl. The governor complained that these criminals are using the name of IPOB to kill, maim and terrorise innocent citizens.
Although security agencies have failed in halting these criminal activities, they are determined to restore artificial tranquility in Anambra today so that election can take place. What happens after the poll cannot be predicted. Will IPOB resume hostilities after the poll?
The fear of INEC officials, ad hoc staff and others connected with the exercise was not without justification, based on the previous experience about the violent activities in the region. Life is precious. Whenever people die during elections, it is the end. Life goes on for other members of the society.
To underscore the seriousness, Police Inspector General Usman Baba has confirmed the heavy deployment of security agencies across the wards and local government. The environment is critically militarised as a last resort.
This has implications. The heavy presence of policemen, soldiers and other security agents may keep the trouble makers at bay. But, it can also lead to a feeling that war is imminent. Therefore, voters may be scared.
Unscrupulous elements and master riggers should bear in him that INEC is now eager to prosecute electoral offenders, including party members, agents, polling staff and INEC officials who run foul of the electoral law.
Since 2023, elections have been hectic in Anambra. But, winners have always emerged. The contest also shifted from the ballot box to the court.
Will today’s exercise be different?