Adamawa 2015: It’s a four-horse race

Like in most states of the federation with governors running the final lap of their tenure, the next governorship election in Adamawa State is beginning to take shape as four aspirants have emerged as frontrunners, reports Assistant Editor, Remi Adelowo

Until the resignation of Alhaji Bamanga Tukur as the National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on January 16, the race for the party’s 2015 governorship ticket seemed signed, sealed and delivered to Awwal, the eldest son of the erstwhile PDP helmsman.

But this initial calculation may have been altered following the recent defection of the former governorship candidate of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in the state, Engr. Marcus Gundiri, from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the PDP, coupled with the refusal of the Deputy Governor, Bala James Ngilari, to join the APC alongside his boss, Governor Murtala Nyako.

Gundiri, who posted an impressive showing at the 2011 governorship election, coming a close second to Nyako, cited his alleged exclusion and that of his supporters in the running of the APC as the main factor responsible for his defection to the PDP.

But sources in the state aver that Gundiri’s governorship ambition and the realisation that Nyako may not support him largely informed his decision to join the PDP, while allegedly shunning all entreaties from the APC leaders to remain in the party.

The issue of ambition, sources said, may have also compelled Ngilari to stay put in the PDP like his Sokoto and Nasarawa states counterparts, Mukhtah Shagari and Mr. Dameshi Barau Luka respectively, whose principals had long joined the APC.

Who wins the PDP ticket?

In spite of his father’s resignation as the PDP boss, sources disclosed that Awwal will, barring any unforeseen circumstances, declare his governorship ambition in the third quarter of this year.

A source close to the former member of the House of Representatives told The Nation that the defection of Gundiri and Ngilari’s governorship ambition would not in any way threaten the younger Tukur’s chances at the PDP primaries.

The palpable confidence in Tukur’s camp may not be unconnected to a promise Alhaji Bamanga Tukur allegedly extracted from President Goodluck Jonathan to support his son’s 2015 governorship ambition.

Another edge the younger Tukur also seems to have over and above the other potential aspirants is the control of the Adamawa PDP executive committee by people unquestionably loyal to his father.

Before Nyako’s defection to the APC, the state PDP had two factions, with one led by Alhaji Mijinyawa Kugama, which is loyal to the governor, while the other faction, led by Chief Joel Madaki, is loyal to Tukur.

However, not a few major stakeholders in Adamawa PDP are worried about how the national leadership of the party will resolve the crisis that may likely ensue in the aftermath of the party’s primaries.

According to a party member, there are fears that Ngilari, who is said to have wormed his way into the good books of President Goodluck Jonathan, has allegedly vowed not to step down for Tukur or any other candidate.

Sources disclosed that his confidence may have stemmed from positive feelers he has allegedly received from some close aides of the president to support his alleged ambition.

The Nation further gathered that during several meetings of the PDP Governors Forum and the party’s caucus meetings held in recent times at the Presidential Villa in Abuja, Ngilari was conspicuously noticed and accorded a ‘warm reception’, a development many in the party have interpreted as a tacit endorsement of his alleged ambition by those that matter in the party.

With an alleged plan afoot to make Ngilari the PDP leader in Adamawa State, fears are being expressed in certain quarters in the party that forces loyal to Bamanga Tukur may not take kindly to the deputy governor’s leadership.

A source quipped, “The former National Chairman (of the PDP) had positioned his son to take over from Nyako in 2015, but the governor also had his own plans. If Ngilari is eventually favoured for the PDP ticket, it will be akin to dumping Tukur simply because he is no longer in charge.”

How to handle Gundiri’s ambition is also another knotty issue being discussed by party stakeholders, as the former APC stalwart’s decision to join the party was based on an alleged assurance he got that a level playing field will be provided for all governorship aspirants.

Gundiri, according to a source, believes strongly that with a level playing field, he stands a good chance to emerge as the PDP flag bearer. In the 2011 governorship election, the then defunct ACN candidate polled 260,405 votes to emerge second behind Nyako who got 302, 986 votes.

Observers of Adamawa politics are, however, not ruling out the emergence of a dark horse in the race for the PDP ticket, even as there are unconfirmed report that Senator Bello Mohammed Tukur may throw his hat into the ring.

Out of the three senators from Adamawa State, Tukur declined to defect to the APC like his colleagues, Ahmed Hassan Barata and Mohammed Jubrilla Bindo.

The Marwa challenge in the APC

The current situation in the APC also presents an interesting scenario.

The incumbent governor, sources have alleged, is said to have an anointed candidate in mind to succeed him in 2015. But where does this arrangement leave Gen. Buba Marwa (rtd), the former Military Administrator of Lagos and Borno States, who is still allegedly interested in occupying the Adamawa Government House.

Marwa contested for the seat in 2011 on the platform of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) coming a distant third with 107, 564 votes, but not a few national leaders of the APC believe that with the right party platform and support from an incumbent governor, Marwa has all it takes to win the next governorship election in Adamawa State.

Another argument being canvassed by party stakeholders is that having spurned alleged pressures from the national leadership of the PDP and the presidency to dump the APC, the retired Army Brigadier General has proved his loyalty beyond doubt and must be ‘rewarded’ with the party’s ticket.

With unconfirmed reports claiming that one of the two APC senators, who is quite close to Governor Nyako, is also interested in the exalted seat, it remains unclear how the whole process will play out within the APC.

But what is, however, certain is that the 2015 governorship race in the North-East state will be a straight fight between the APC and the PDP.