With the victory of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) in the recent Bassa/Jos North Federal Constituency by-election in Plateau State, the next governorship election in the state is likely to be a fierce battle between the PDP and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). What is certain, however, is that the next governor is likely to be from Plateau Central, in line with the power rotation arrangement in the state since 1979. Correspondent KOLADE ADEYEMI examines the succession battle looming ahead of the election
Stakeholders in Plateau believe they have the most sincere and workable succession strategy in Nigeria. The people have in place a zoning formula since 1979 that has made the contest for the number one seat less stressful.
They applied the succession formula in 1979, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019. It is not going to be different in 2023, considering that the people have always implemented their zoning formula diligently and religiously.
In 1979, the governorship seat was zoned to Plateau South. The zone produced Solomon Lar (of blessed memory). Lar was to complete his second term when the military interfered once again in politics through the 1983 coup d’etat led by General Muhammadu Buhari, who is now Nigeria’s elected civilian president.
Despite the military interregnum of 1983, Plateau people maintained their rotational plan in 1999 when the country returned to civil rule. The governorship slot in 1999 was reserved for the Plateau Central, the zone that produced Joshua Dariye, who governed the state until 2007 after completing the two terms. Plateau North took its turn in the rotational agreement from 2007 to 2015. This allowed Jonah David Jang to govern the state for another two terms of eight years. By 2015, the rotational formula had gone full circle through the three geo-political zones.
Thus, by 2015, the governorship seat returned to Plateau South, which kicked off the power rotation arrangement. began. That opportunity led to the emergence of the incumbent Governor Simon Bako Lalong. In 2019, he was re-elected for a second term. So, by next year, he would have completed the eight years allowed constitutionally for an individual to govern a state. The next zone in contention for the governorship seat is Plateau Central. From the body language of political stakeholders in Plateau State, you can take it to the bank that the next governor of will come from that zone.
From all indications, the current power rotation in Plateau may have been foisted on the people by the political class since 1979; the formula may not be the wish of the people. This is the view of Prince Charles Dickson, a Jos based public affairs commentator. His words: “The minor ethnic groups are not pleased with this zoning formula. But, they are too minor to change it. The major ethnic groups have been taking advantage of this zoning formula and have been doing so at the expense of the minor tribes.”
The roll call of aspirants so far has shown that the zoning formula will be adhered to in next year’s election. All the governorship aspirants, so far, come from Plateau Central. Some political stakeholders have made efforts in the past to scuttle this arrangement by contesting from other zones. But, such attempts have always failed. Such failed attempts have served as a deterrent to politicians not to toy with the rotational formula. This time around, no politician will dare to take such a risk. Consequently, the governorship contest is limited to aspirants from Plateau Central. And any political party wishing to contest the governorship position in the state must toe the line of the rotation by shopping for aspirants from the zone to fly its flag at the polls.
Plateau Central is composed of five local governments: Pankshin, Kanke, Mangu, Bokkos and Kanam. The person that would succeed Governor Lalong must come from one of these five local governments. This explains why all the aspirants across various political parties are from the above local governments. So far, those that have indicated interest to contest in the election from that zone are 33 in number. Some of the aspirants are Dr Danyaro Dakon Sarpiya, Timothy Nantok, Chief Jonathan Sunday Akuns, Prof Dakas C J Dakas (SAN), Chief Garba Pwul (SAN), Senator Hezekiah Ayuba Dimka, Chief Satu Jewun Jataw and Brigadier General John Sunday Sura. Others are Prof Sunny Gwale Tyoden, Nde Dauda Wuritga Gotring, Manji Gontori, Timothy Simon Golu, Dr. Patrick Dakum, David Victor Dimka, Chief Jerry Gushop, Chief Amos Gizo, Dr Nentawe Goshwe Yilwada, Mr Sunday Bigs and Mr. Robert Taple.
A legal luminary and a politician of Plateau origin, Yusuf Buhari said: “Yes, the next governor of Plateau should come from the Central zone in respect to this rotational principle. It is not however a breach of the law if anyone contests the governorship from the other two zones. I say this because as a lawyer I know the Nigerian constitution does not restrict anyone from contesting. And this zoning formula has no constitutional foundation; people should be free to exercise the contest or select whoever they like. Zoning is an attempt to influence people’s choices. I expect Plateau people to deepen their democracy beyond the 1979 arrangement. Though zoning has led to political stability in the state, it is a breach of the constitution to localise political positions.”
Buhari is therefore of the view that in 2023, the contest should be thrown open. He said: “We have had enough of this zoning to a level that people are trying to legitimise it. Zoning is unconstitutional and it should not be legitimised.”
Steve Aluko, director of Civil Liberty Organization (CLO) who has been monitoring political activities in the state since the return to civil rule in 1999 believes that the rotational formula adopted by politicians in Plateau State is the best option in a multi-lingual society. He said: “The rotational politics have benefited the people because it has made electioneering less cumbersome, peaceful and credible. It has given the people a sense of belonging and it has promoted inclusiveness.
“The only disadvantage of the rotation is the lack of transparency in party primaries. Zoning does not often produce the best candidate for the people. This has robbed the people of quality leadership. Political parties are fond of monetising their primaries and that has been the reason for the poor performance of governors in the past.”
Akiko, however, said the people can leverage the amended Electoral Act 2022 to produce quality candidates from the party level. “It is not going to be business as usual,” he added.
Similarly, Nankin Bagudu, a former Commissioner for Environment and the director of a Jos-based non-governmental organization, the League for Human Rights (LFHR), said he does not like the idea of zoning. He said: “It is a political formula foisted on Plateau people and it has become a tradition that no one can ignore. So, in 2023, it is impossible to discard the rotational system in picking the next governor of Plateau State. This is why the next governor is likely to come from Plateau Central.”
Prince Dickson is of the view that the zoning system has not helped the people of Plateau State and therefore it should be discarded in 2023, if possible. He said: “This is because apart from the fact that it robs the people of quality governorship candidates, it also gives undue advantage to the major ethnic groups because it does not allow equal opportunity for the minorities.
“You know Plateau is made up of diverse ethnic groups; among them are over 50 diverse languages, out of these diverse languages there are majority and minorities. And so, when the slot comes to the zone, only the major ethnic groups take it; the minor ethnic groups become mere followers, who have no option but to wait for the crumbs. Therefore, the contest should be thrown open for the best candidate to emerge through the will of the people, the people’s choice should not be influenced through zoning.”
There are clear indications that a conservative political ideology exists in Plateau State. This is taken from the fact that once the people take a political decision they hardly change it. Apart from the fact that the people are not likely to change their rotational formula in 2023, the people are also sticking to two political parties – the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP). These are the only party platforms through which the next governor is likely to emerge. There is hardly a chance for any other political party to penetrate the state outside the PDP and the APC. Other opposition parties have tried in the past but failed to break this tradition. In Plateau, it’s either the APC or the PDP.
Again, the possibility of an incumbent governor anointing his successor, and ensuring his victory at the polls has never been possible in Plateau State. Joshua Dariye’s attempt to install a successor failed as his biggest opponent, Jonah Jang defected from the defunct All Nigeria Peoples’ Party (ANPP) to the PDP and won the election.
In 2015, a similar attempt by Jang to anoint a successor also failed, as Lalong came from nowhere to defeat the governor’s anointed candidate. It is not clear at this stage if the incumbent Lalong intends to anoint his successor.
It is equally too early to say which party will win the next governorship election. This is a state that was under the sole control of the PDP for 16 years. The APC only broke the dominance in 2015 with the incumbent Governor Lalong.
With 11 months to the general election, the ruling APC cannot confidently boast of retaining the governorship beyond May 29. The PDP as the main opposition has refused to be discouraged by its loss of power to the APC in 2015. Thus, it fancies its chances of staging a comeback next year. The fact that the recent by-election held in Bassa/Jos North Federal Constituency was won by the PDP is a morale booster for the opposition party, as it prepares for the next general elections.
The strength of the ruling APC was taken away when the party State Chairman, Latep Dabang resigned his membership of the party ànd returned to the PDP. Dabang returned to the PDP after he was suspended by the ruling party. The inability of the APC to reconcile its internal conflicts and stop its state chairman from returning to the PDP was seen by many as a setback for the ruling party.