A group, Akoko Leaders of Thought, is coordinating the agitation for power shift to Ondo North Senatorial District. In this piece, its President, Dr. Bunmi Kolawole, and Secretary, Raymond Ogodo, explains why the slot should be zoned to the district.
All the communities in Akokoland of Ondo State find it extremely necessary to give analysis of the current political situation and the mood iof the generality of the people of Ondo State with a view to determining where the governorship slot should be zoned among the three senatorial districts for the PDP to win the 2017 governorship election.
In doing this wee will have to use an election is most disadvantaged for the PDP to make our projections. This will form the worst scenario for the party and rthe best parameter to make future projections. We have therefore chosen the 2015 Presidential election where, in our observation, the people of Ondo State voted massively for the APC Presidential candidate.
Why 2015 presidential election?
As stated abiove, the change slogan or the Apc and the massive influence of its presidential candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari created a turbulent wind that swept the PDP oft its feet in Ondo State. It was a serious siege that caused PDP a serious plague across the country. PDP cannot have it worse uin any future election. Hence we chose to use that election for our projections.
We choose not to use total voters reguistration because it is unreliable as only a few but sizeable percentage of people come out to vote on election day. Hence we base our projections on actual voters in a critical election with large turn-out.
The 2015 presidential election among all other elections had the highest turnout because of the determination of people in the country to effect change especially at the presidential level while other elections (National/State Assemblies) still have some elements of candidates personalities considerations.
In Ondo State particularly, foreigners and Northerners voted massively for APC because of Buhari, putting the PDP in a most disadvantage position.
Majortiyof elites including businessmen, teachers, civil servants who reside mostly in Akure voted massively for APC because they were fed up with PDP government at the National level and even at Ondo State level, especially considering the problems within the PDP as a result pof the merge of LP and PDP.
2015 presidential election
We present as attached tables 1,2 & 3 being the results of the 2015 presidential elections in the three senotoerial zones of Ondo State. Table I shows the results in Ondo North senatorial district comprising Akoko North West LG, Akoko NELG, Akoko SE LG, Akoko SW, OSE LG and Owo LG table 2 shows the results in Ondo Central senatorial district comprising Ifedore, Akure North, Akure South, Idanre, Ondo East and Ondo West LG while table 3 shows result in the Southern senatorial district which comprises of Okitipupa, Irele, Odigbo, Ile-Oluji, Ese-Odo and Ilaje LG areas.
Analysis
Generally, totoal voters turn and across the three senatorial district were almost the same with not too much difference as follows:
North senatorial district 174,928 total votes out of which PDP scored 41 per cent.
Central senatorial district 189,705 total votes out of which PDP scored 39.65 per cent and
181,638 total votes from the Southern senatorial district out of which PDP scored 57.4 per cent.
South senatorial district
The PDP is very strong here with its 57.4 per cent as against an approximate of an average of 49 per cent each in the other senatorial districts.
The strength wil stil be maintained if the PDP does not go to sleep as this zone is the only zone is the only zone hwere the PDP has a predominant of effective officers including the senator, all the MHRs, almost all the MHAs and the speaker if the House of Assembly. If these people really want to defend their mandates for future el;ections, it is expected that PDP should improve to over 60 per cent irrespective of whether the governsorship is zoned there or not; moreso when the speakership will stil remain there for continuity if the general electuion favours the PDP whether the Governos is from North or Central. PDP cannot afford to have the Governor and Speaker in the same senatorial district. Hence, for PDP the governorship should either go to the North or Central.
The argument of the Minister being from the South, even though he is not from our party is rather a reason why the governor must come from another zone as the South cannot have the governor, the Minister and the speaker put together. The argument that the appointment of the Minister will sway our vote to the APC does not hold water if the defection of the likes of Olusola Oke, Femi Agagu, Oladunni Odu and others who are veteran politician could not sway our vote for the APC in House of Assembly with all his defection at the twilight of that election. Who then is this minister with all his money (if any) who will rattle the PDP in the South?
From the beginning of this democratic dispensation since 1999, the PDP has always picked its candidate from the south as follows:
1999-Agagu (but failed)
2003-Agagu (won)
2007-2009-Agagu (won but lost in 2007 to election tribunal)
2012-Olusola Oke
2016 ?
Q= Must we be telling other zones that PDP belongs solely to the south?
A= Let us shift to North or Central to prove that PDP belongs to all zones in Ondo State.
our conclusion then is that the governorship candidate of the PDP must not be restricted to the Southern senatorial district and with all the arrays of our elective officers in that zone, PDP should have a comfortable lead in that zone. We expect at least 65 per cent from that zone in the next election if PDP does not work against PDP.
Central senatorial district
The central senatorial district polled a total of 189,705 in that election for both APC and PDP out of which the PDP polled approximately 40 per cent. The majority of vote for APC came from Akure South Local Government which polled a total of 50,411 votes for APC. There is currently an Akure Agenda that wants the governorship candidate to come from either Akure North, Akure South or Ifedore. We concerned members of PDP do not agree that Idanre is part of this Agenda.
Idanre is considered by us as brother to Ondo (i.e Ondo agenda if any) since they are united by culture, language and geographically congruous.
When we talk about rotation of governorship seat, it is believed to be on Senatorial District by Senatorial District. Talking democratically in Ondo State, the governorship has gone round all the zones.
Agagu has done it twice (6 years) from the South, Adefarati and Ajasin have done it twice from the North (8 years) while Mimiko alone has taken the share of the Central twice (8 year). In effect the governorship can come from any zone BUT it cannot start from the CENTRAL for the single reason that the Central is just leaving the seat and it cannot be succeeded immediately by another person from the central (back-to-back). This will mean the central going at a stretch for 12 years or 16 years provided his successor spends a single or double terms!.
This is unacceptable. The argument of Akure District being marginalize could be addressed when the rotation comes back to the Central where then the Ondo District hat has enjoyed it will let go for Akure. It is then that Akure can talk about marginalization and get the sympathy of everybody in the state. For now Akure District (i.e Akure South/North or Ifedore) can settle for Deputy Governorship.
Northern senatorial district
The Northern Senatorial District polled a total of 174,928 votes in that election with only a difference of about 7,000 votes compared to the South. The PDP polled 41% of this. There is an Akoko Agenda that wants the governorship to come from Akoko.
The desperation of Akoko (their Agenda) is that they will vote massively for any party (especially the major parties) that picks their son or daughter as candidate.
The PDP must not leave Akoko bare for APC to ravage. Even with the massive support APC enjoyed in the North in that election, PDP still polled 41% of the vote. The worst scenario is for both APC and PDP to pick their candidates from the North PDP and APC will at worst share North 50-50 but with a good and foridable candidate from the North especially from Akoko extraction, we can confidently give 70% to PDP in the North.
Akure agenda Vis-à-vis Akoko Agenda
- Akure Agenda is not limited to Akure South but extends to Akure North and Ifedore.
- Total votes in Akure South was 68,536 while Akure North and Ifedore combined is 42,399. So an agenda of Akure South indigenes (i.e about 20,569) which is less than the indigenous votes from the other two LGs. Voters in Akure South are elites civil servants, teachers, foreigners, businessmen and even Ekiti State people resident in Akure. The real Akure Agenda is Akure North/Ifedore. If they want to succeed they must get the views of politicians and opinion leaders from those two local government areas. Our findings show that the greater noise of Akure Agenda come from Akure South and the PDP candidates being considered are from Akure South. This marks the failure of the AGENDA ab-initio. Is there no credible candidate from Igbara Oke, Ilara, Ijare, Itaogbolu, Iju Oba-Ile, Ogbese, Igbatoro etc? Why limiting the candidates to Akure South (i.e the SANs)
The total votes cast in the three Akure Agenda LGs of Ifedore, Akure North and South is 110,935 while the four iron cast Akoko LGs is 114,122 votes. PDP has 41 per cent in the North and about 40 per cent in the central. We cannot perform worst in the central if Mr. Governor works extra hard; the central senatorial district being his immediate constituency.
For Akoko, we cannot afford to give APC a field day by ignoring it. When without a candidate yet and in the worst election ever suffered by PDP in that region, it pooled 41 per cent. With a candidate from there to face another APC candidate, if it is the one being propagated enough to get its candidate from either the central or South, God will give us 92 per cent with all things being equal.