By Alao Abiodun
“By 2020 Nigeria will be one of the 20 largest economies in the world, able to consolidate its leadership role in Africa and establish itself as a significant player in the global economic and political arena.” – Nigeria Vision 20:2020 Economic Transformation Blueprint
The above excerpt was topmost among the goals of this national development plan since it was launched 11 years ago.
The policy document explained that Vision 20:2020 is an articulation of the long-term intent to launch Nigeria onto a path of sustained social and economic progress and accelerate the emergence of a truly prosperous and united Nigeria.
This was conceived by former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2006. The blueprint of Vision 20:2020 was launched in September 2009 by late President Umaru Yar’Adua’s administration.
The country embarked upon the tall ambition to “position Nigeria to become one of the top 20 economies in the world by 2020, by linking the objectives of the National Economic and Empowerment Development Strategy programme (2004-2007), the NEEDS programme, and the Seven-Point Agenda”.
Fundamental to the vision are two broad objectives: human and natural resources to achieve economic growth and translating that growth into equitable social development for all citizens. These aspirations are defined across four areas, which are social, economic, institutional, and political dimensions.
An institutional framework was established to oversee the country’s arrival at the top table of the 20 largest economies in the world by the year 2020.
The main organs responsible for the development of the vision were: The National Council on Vision 2020, the lead organ, chaired by the president; the National Steering Committee which consisted of about 70 persons; the National Technical Working Group comprising about 20-25 experts in specific thematic areas; the Stakeholder Development Committee which included state governments, federal Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) and other key institutions.
A report by Premium Times, explained that at the expiration of the tall target on January 1, 2020, Nigeria was not among the world’s top 20 economies in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It was the 28th largest economy in the world in 2019, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
What went wrong?
Nigeria is not among the world’s top 20 economies with respect to GDP size. It was the 26th largest economy in the world in 2016, 28th in 2019. However, in 2010 when the vision 20:2020 was created, Nigeria was the 30th.
The policy document broke down the processes and stages to achieving the target to include building a solid foundation between 2008 and 2010; achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) en route 2020 between 2011 and 2015, and the eventual attainment of one of the global best 20 economies in the world by 2020.
Meanwhile, Nigeria has had two different administrations since the adoption of Vision 20:2020, each having its own economic growth plan. Under President Jonathan, the Transformation Agenda was the focus. With President Buhari, it is the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) and the focus seems to be squarely on the ERGP as opposed to the Vision 20:2020.
The vision projected that the economy is expected to grow at an average rate of 13.8 percent per annum, to be driven by the agricultural and industrial sectors over the medium-term while the manufacturing and service sectors are expected to drive the economy towards the end of the Vision period, but data from the World Bank showed that economic growth had dropped from 8 per cent in 2009 and 2010 to 2.1 in 2019, with a forecast of 2.2 in 2020.
It also noted that by 2020, Nigeria will have a large, strong, diversified, sustainable and competitive economy that effectively harnesses the talents and energies of its people and responsibly exploits its natural endowments to guarantee a high standard of living and quality of life to its citizens.
On the contrary, Nigeria now has the highest number of people living in extreme poverty across the world. The World Poverty Clock said the figure increases every six months.
Current realities
After the Vision 20:2020 was conceived, critics queried the rationale behind the major target of the vision – propelling Nigeria into the league of 20 top economies. This translates to having a GDP of at least US$900 billion by 2020 compared to about US$212 billion as at 2008.
A report by ICIR which flashes back to over 10 specific targets set in the document, as well as the National Population Policy, while contrasting them with the available statistics, noted that the World Bank’s 2019 Global Economic Prospects Report forecast that Nigeria’s GDP growth rates in 2019 and 2020 are 2.1 and 2.2 per cent respectively. By 2021, it is expected to rise to 2.4 per cent.
Economically, achieving the Vision 20:2020 requires the creation of a globally-competitive economy that will be resilient and diversified. We must have a competitive manufacturing sector that is highly integrated and contributes no less than 25 per cent to Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Given that the country is always faced with a series of economic crises, which usually affects all sectors, how can it seek to achieve Vision 20:2020 in the midst of all these crises?
To become one of the top 20 economies in 2020, Nigeria has to outperform other countries above it on the gross domestic product (GDP) ranking in 2018 and 2019. It must step up its efforts to improve economic growth.
From Vision 20:2020 to Agenda 2050?
Road maps like: Vision 2000, 2010, 2015, and 2020 are projections used by successive governments to give hope to its citizens about its short, medium, and long term measures to improve the welfare of its citizens.
Hardly had any administration come on board without a ‘virgin’ plan professionally packaged to ease the agonizing pains of the masses, although these plans which come with great expectations are found to be more active on paper than in implementation.
On september 9, 2020, President Muhammadu Buhari inaugurated the National Steering Committee to oversee and actualise Nigeria Agenda 2050 and Medium-Term National Development Plan (MTNDP – 2021-2025).
Speaking at the inauguration, President Buhari said: “The main objectives of the ERGP Plans are to lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty within the next 10 years, particularly given the World Bank’s projection that Nigeria will become the world’s third most populous country by 2050 with over 400 million people.”
The MTNDP is expected to succeed the current Nigeria Vision 20:2020 and the Economic Recovery and Growth Plans (ERGP) terminating in December, 2020 while Agenda 2050 is a long-term plan.
The ERGP focused on achieving economic growth but without the aim of placing the country among the largest 20 economies in the world.
Experts bare thoughts on why the vision ‘failed’
While Nigeria failed to meet up the set target to be among the largest 20 economies in the world in 2020, The Nation spoke with experts on what could have been the impediments to this goal.
The experts, in separate reactions, unanimously stated that lack of discipline, leadership problems and poor implementation affected the outlined goal.
An economist and Chairman of the Foundation for Economic Research and Training, Professor Akpan Ekpo, said: “We have a problem with transformational leadership. Leadership in Nigeria has not been quite transformational, the necessary things have not been put in place to move the nation forward and millions out of poverty. We are 60 years of age as a nation, and we can’t boast of good health, education, health structure and others. The economy has been mismanaged by everyone, not only the elites. We don’t have enough evidence-based policies. As we speak, we have a large deficit of crucial infrastructure.”
Ekpo, a member of the Steering Committee of Vision 2020 who also headed the micro-economic framework committee, said, “Things were better before independence but now the economy has been mismanaged, especially the oil wells. All indices — misery index, poverty index and all — are all showing how the economy has not been able to meet up with the set targets. Secondly, we didn’t have a clear economic Philosophy to implement, is it a market economy? What we have is a few elites pursuing their own interest. Corruption is also an issue but when you build an economy which is all-inclusive, it can be addressed.”
While speaking on the 2021-2025, and agenda 2050, he said “I’m part of the 2021-2025 committee doing the macroeconomic models, we have good plans but implementation is always the problem. Different governments are always coming with different agendas rather than keying into the existing one for the sake of continuity. Many abandoned the vision 2020 and successive governments brought up their own agendas. If it was seriously implemented, we would have made some progress.”
Also, Dr Titus Okurounmu, a former Director, Budgetary Department, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), said, “The vision 2020 concerning Nigeria’s economy didn’t meet its goal because of failure in planned implementation, we make plans but it is just on paper, but in reality, we don’t actualise it.”
The former CBN Director further noted that “Making a plan is not enough, you must implement it so that you can achieve your goal. The inability to implement the capital project annually is because it is small and recurrent expenditure is very high. They plan it but they don’t spend the money on the necessary project.
“We are also experiencing fiscal indiscipline and lack of accountability. Everything comes down to leadership because it is critical to success.”
Similarly, Pat Utomi, a Professor of political economy and management expert, told The Nation that, “very central to what critically affected the country’s vision 2020 goal is the level of discipline and leadership to inspire different interests to come together in seamless engagement in pursuit of the goal.
“Nigeria has been flawed in those areas. Our politics has been divisive rather than united. While giving Malaysia as an example, he said the country pursued its vision with a dictum borrowed from US president Lyndon Baines Johnson (LBJ), using leadership skills to pursue its goals, the country’s elites were made to contribute to the country’s growth.
“It is when you have a united front that you can have a united force. The “elites”, rather than contribute to making Nigeria grow, they are busy pursuing self-interests.
“Until the entire population can be involved in the vision passionately rather than it stopping at the committee desk, then the country’s issues can be resolved” he added.
Similarly, Alhaji Ali Madugu, Vice President, Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, (MAN), said, “The vision 2010 also died because there was no continuity, despite the democratic dispensation, many governments didn’t key into it.
“The development plans are not always implemented appropriately, during Obasanjo, Yaradua, Jonathan tenures respectively, they all brought parallel agendas which were not fully tied to the vision 2020.
“Irrespective of the economic parameters, we lack the political power to implement the agenda appropriately. If all our efforts were tied towards the financial aspect of the economy, it would have helped us grow. No one is bringing investment into the real sector.”
“We have the vision, but we don’t have the discipline to implement the policies that come with the vision.”
Conclusion
Every country needs a vision statement, which stirs the imagination and motivates all segments of society to greater effort. Several efforts have been made to produce a suitable framework for Nigeria’s economic development, and as such, Vision 2020 was also a part of the country’s plan for economic growth.
However, this analysis has revealed Nigeria’s inability to achieve the objectives spans due to multiple reasons. Prominently, different governments are keen to introduce and favour their own policies at the expense of consistency and continuity.
To be one of the top 20 biggest economies by 2020 means that Nigeria should have done some of these things 20 big economies can do. There is a need for continuity in development strategy in Nigeria.
- The researcher produced this fact-check per the Dubawa 2020 Fellowship partnership with The Nation Newspapers to facilitate the ethos of “truth” in journalism and enhance media literacy in the country.
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