A surge of defections from opposition parties is changing Nigeria’s political landscape, making the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) look stronger ahead of the next general election. However, economic troubles, voter frustration, and new northern alliances could still alter the outcome of the election. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI reports.
Last Tuesday, Nigeria’s wave of political defections peaked at the Rivers State Government House, Port Harcourt. In front of a packed audience, Governor Siminalayi Fubara announced he had “the full support” of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and could not stay in a party that “could not protect him”.
After his speech, he ordered the flag of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) removed from the building. The crowd quickly began chanting “On your mandate we shall stand,” the main slogan of the All Progressives Congress (APC). This moment was more than just a defection; it was a public display of political realignment.
This was just the latest and most dramatic example in a series of defections. Fubara is not alone. Earlier this year, Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and other PDP governors—Akwa Ibom’s Umo Eno, Enugu’s Peter Mbah, and Bayelsa’s Duoye Diri—also left the opposition for the ruling party.
In the North, Taraba’s Agbu Kefas is already seen as an APC member, even though he has not been officially welcomed into the party. His formal entry, initially planned for November, was suspended due to national mourning over abducted schoolgirls. Officials now expect him to join the APC in early 2026. At the same time, Plateau’s Caleb Mutfwang is reportedly preparing to join, which would bring the APC’s total to 26 out of 36 governors.
Even when governors are not joining the ruling party, they are still leaving the PDP. Last Tuesday, Osun’s Ademola Adeleke became the Accord Party’s candidate for the 2026 governorship election, after he joined the fold, saying his old party suffered from “internal decay”. What started as a few defections has now become a significant movement that has changed Nigeria’s political landscape.
By December 2025, the APC controls 26 states, the PDP has six, and four smaller parties each control one state. Many observers see this as a clear advantage for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid in 2027. However, issues such as economic hardship, regional concerns, and unpredictable voters make the outcome still uncertain.
Carrot, stick & the calculating politician:
Analysts and insiders say several factors are causing the wave of defections, with political survival often more important than ideology. In Nigeria’s changing political scene, these reasons can be grouped into four main categories.
The lure of federal might: Nigeria’s highly centralised political system makes access to federal power a potent incentive. “Governors don’t want to be in opposition when crucial funding and development projects are being shared. It’s political survival,” says Chika Ibe, a public policy expert at the University of Abuja. Enugu’s Governor Peter Mbah framed his own defection as a move for “development, not politics,” emphasising the need to work more closely with President Tinubu.
The reasoning is straightforward: in a system where federal funding and infrastructure decisions shape a governor’s legacy, joining the ruling party often seems necessary rather than optional.
Fear and coercion: However, many argue that attraction alone does not explain the scale of the defections. The Forum of State PDP Chairmen has accused the APC of orchestrating “undemocratic and desperate efforts to intimidate PDP leaders… into defecting.”
Dr Naseer Kura Ja’afaru, a pro-democracy activist, is even more direct: “The ruling party is using its state apparatus and coercive powers, including bodies like the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and other agencies, to whip key opposition figures, particularly those considered threats, into submission.”
Although these claims are disputed, they show that many people see politics as a struggle where power can both reward and punish. This belief helps explain the rush to defect.
The PDP’s self-inflicted crisis: Yet the opposition’s collapse is not merely imposed from outside. The PDP has been weakened by years of internal warfare, most notably the bitter rift between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister Nyesom Wike. “The damage inflicted on the PDP by the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, has made any attempt to resuscitate the party wishful thinking,” argues Ja’afaru. A top PDP official, speaking anonymously, lamented, “There’s no longer a sense of unity or purpose in the PDP. People are looking out for their own interests.”
A haven for the vulnerable:
For some defectors, the move to the APC is a hedge against accountability or electoral defeat. “Many of them joined the APC because of their liabilities for what they have not done well for their people. They are looking for a place of safety,” says Chief Chekwas Okorie, founding national chairman of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). Policy strategist Sam Amadi frames the shift as “the need for self-preservation,” noting that many governors “have no confidence in the electoral process.” In this environment, defection is more than a political strategy; it is a way for politicians to protect themselves. This trend changes the system and also shows its weaknesses.
Conflicting visions of a one-party state:
The large number of defections has sparked debate about the state of Nigeria’s democracy. Inside the APC, people are celebrating. Comrade Moshood Erubami, a party leader in Oyo State, sees the defections as proof that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope agenda is working. “It indicates that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope agenda is gaining ground… This is not necessarily to create a one-party state, but because the party they are joining has become so popular,” he says. He rejects concerns about a one-party state, saying that the presence of INEC-recognised parties makes this impossible.
He is confident that the APC is on course for an easy victory in 2027.
The opposition and civil society, however, sound the alarm. PDP National Publicity Secretary Ini Ememobong warns that “democracy is terribly threatened by acts of this kind,” accusing the APC of pushing toward a “one-party system” that he argues poses a profound threat to democracy.
But seasoned observers like Chief Chekwas Okorie urge caution against interpreting the moment as a permanent structural shift. “Any keen observer of Nigerians’ political attitudes would recognise that this sort of thing happens every election cycle,” he says. In his view, the political pendulum is already preparing to swing again. “In the near future, perhaps early next year, there will be an exodus of especially northern politicians from the APC, the PDP, and other political parties to the ADC. That exodus would alter the balance of power.”
History shows that Nigeria’s political landscape rarely follows a straight path.
Incumbency not a magic wand:
The main question is how these changes will affect voting in 2027. On paper, the APC’s advantage as the ruling party is strong. With control of 26 states so far, President Tinubu has access to most state government resources, which helps organise, shape the message, and distribute resources.
The decision of southern governors like Eno and Mbah to switch parties is also viewed as a way to strengthen support in areas where Tinubu barely won in 2023. At first glance, this seems like a smart move.
Yet incumbency is not an automatic guarantee. Chief Okorie is sceptical about these defectors’ ability to deliver electoral value. “How can they help him? Have they helped anybody before?” he asks, pointing to the 2023 election, where several sitting governors failed to win Senate seats. Even more telling, Peter Obi defeated the PDP machinery in Delta State despite Governor Okowa being Atiku’s running mate. The message, Okorie argues, is clear: “The political machinery is overrated.”
There is also the electorate, which is frustrated, tired, and hard to predict. Nigeria faces a severe cost-of-living crisis, insecurity, and widespread disappointment. “There is a general fear that the ruling party will deploy significant resources to win the upcoming election. But the electorate would still vote with their conscience,” says Dr Ja’afaru.
In Nigeria, political leaders often think they can control election results, but voters are always the unpredictable factor.
The fragmented opposition:
For President Tinubu to face real competition, the divided opposition would have to come together. Right now, that seems unlikely.
The PDP is disorganised. The Labour Party (LP) is dealing with leadership and organisational problems. Smaller parties like the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), which controls Kano, and the growing African Democratic Congress (ADC) are trying to present themselves as alternatives.
Much of the uncertainty centres on key figures. Peter Obi, who led the “Obidient” movement in 2023 and changed Nigeria’s political scene, is expected to run again. Okorie thinks Obi’s support is strong: “He has his own core supporters… who would follow him wherever he goes.” Still, it is unclear which party Obi will choose. Whether he stays with the LP, joins another party, or tries to form a coalition, each choice would change the situation.
Meanwhile, the ADC is quietly emerging as a potential rallying point for northern politicians disenchanted with both the APC and the PDP. Okorie reveals that “between 11 and 12 immediate past ministers under former President Muhammadu Buhari from the North are in the ADC,” and that former Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai has also joined. This sets the stage for a significant northern bloc operating outside the APC.
Comrade Erubami does not think the opposition can get past its internal problems. “Only the unity of purpose among the opposition parties can threaten the ruling party’s dominance,” he says. The APC leader believes the opposition is too divided, suspicious, and focused on its own issues to challenge the ruling party. “From the body language of key opposition figures, unity is unlikely due to selfish interests,” he adds.
However, history shows that even a divided opposition can disrupt an election if voters are upset enough. Right now, Nigerians are facing more economic hardship than at any time since the return to civil rule in 1999.
As frustration grows, even smaller parties might gain more support than expected. The NNPP’s control of Kano shows that regional parties still have influence. Peter Obi’s continued popularity, especially with Gen Z and urban middle-class voters, keeps the election outcome uncertain.
In Nigeria, the political situation is rarely clear until just before the election. The 2027 race looks to be the same.
Democracy at a crossroads:
As Nigeria moves toward 2027, the wave of defections has created an apparent paradox. The APC looks stronger than ever, with former rivals now part of it. The opposition seems divided, weak, and focused on internal conflicts. Some commentators worry that the ruling party’s strength could undermine democracy’s competitive nature.
But Nigerian politics often defies predictions. The same economic problems that drive politicians to the ruling party may be pushing ordinary Nigerians to oppose it. Across markets, schools, religious groups, and social media, frustrations are growing.
In many states, governors who switch parties to protect themselves may find they have little influence when it comes time to ask for votes. A governor can change a flag, but voters decide the future.
Meanwhile, though divided, the opposition still has potent symbols and new alliances. Peter Obi remains an essential figure for many, especially younger voters. The ADC’s growing support in the North could change old voting patterns, and the NNPP’s control of Kano could shift regional power.
In the end, the 2027 election may not just be a fight between the APC and a divided opposition. It could become a vote on hardship, leadership, and trust.
In the next few months, it will become clear whether these defections will lead to long-term one-party rule or set up a major political shift. Nigerian politics is unpredictable and rarely favours those who take things for granted.
One thing is sure: the defections have changed the political landscape. But the contest, constantly evolving and uniquely Nigerian, is far from finished.
