- Accurate census data serve as a fundamental pillar for national development, providing the necessary information for evidence-based decision-making
President Bola Tinubu has affirmed his commitment to supporting the National Population Commission (NPC) in carrying out a credible population and housing census. This commitment is grounded in the recognition of the vital role accurate data plays in realising his Renewed Hope Agenda. Recently, the President appointed 20 federal commissioners for the NPC, including the reappointment of nine current federal commissioners for a second-term. During the launch of the Electronic Civil Registration and Vital Statistics System, as well as the National Geospatial Data Repository and the National Coordination Committee on CRVS, President Tinubu emphasised the importance of accurate data in crucial aspects of national planning. While expressing the administration’s support for the NPC in conducting the census, he did not disclose the new dates for the exercise. This underscores the significance he places on the accuracy of data for effective governance and national development. Tinubu said: “Population remains the greatest asset of the country in her development process. Collecting accurate and reliable information on the size, distribution composition and characteristics of the population is an essential governance activity that is consistent with our Renewed Hope Agenda. The commission will, therefore, be supported in the conduct of the next census. “The commission has made substantial progress in its quest to deliver the first digital population and housing census. It is my hope that the result of the census will provide the nation with the much-needed data for development planning and enthronement of good governance.” Accurate census data serves as the bedrock upon which nations build their developmental strategies and policies. A census, conducted periodically provides a comprehensive snapshot of a country’s demographic, social and economic landscape. This data is invaluable for governments, policymakers, and researchers in formulating informed decisions that drive sustainable development. Accurate census data provides a detailed understanding of a nation’s population structure, including age distribution, gender composition, and geographic dispersion. This demographic insight is crucial for planning social services, healthcare, and education systems. It enables governments to tailor policies to address the specific needs of different demographic groups, ensuring inclusivity and equitable development. Ideally, conducting a census every decade is recommended. This timeframe allows governments to accurately capture changes in population, age structures and population movements, providing crucial data for aligning public policy and making informed investment decisions. In the case of Nigeria, the last census was conducted seventeen years ago, creating a significant gap. This gap has given rise to various groups and organizations making estimations about the country’s population. Unfortunately, these disparities in data create confusion and hinder the ability of the government, private businesses, and international organizations to plan effectively. Census data holds immense importance in the context of Nigeria, playing a critical role in shaping policies, programmes, and development strategies. Nigeria is a highly diverse country with a large and growing population. Accurate census data helps in understanding the demographic composition, growth rates, and distribution of the population across regions. This information is essential for effective urban planning, resource allocation, and infrastructure development. With a clear picture of the population’s size and characteristics, the government can better plan and implement social services and welfare programmes. This includes education, healthcare, housing, and poverty alleviation initiatives. Census data allows for targeted interventions to address the specific needs of different demographic groups. Nigeria, like other countries in West Africa, has many pressing needs. These are insecurity, poor governance, infrastructure deficit, and forgone investment. Forces such as climate change may add pressure, causing food insecurity, economic disruption, and extreme harm from floods and droughts. The region is also shifting towards renewable and green energy, creating new job opportunities. With all these development challenges and opportunities, and limited resources, it is vital to know what to focus on. Census data is useful for making effective policy plans and tracking progress to reach goals. Census data is also crucial for planning educational systems and workforce development. It provides insights into the age distribution, literacy rates, and educational attainment levels across regions. This information is instrumental in designing education policies and skill development programmes that align with the needs of the population. Understanding the health profile of the population is equally vital for healthcare planning. Census data helps in identifying health disparities, disease prevalence, and healthcare access issues. This information guides the allocation of resources for healthcare infrastructure, the formulation of public health policies, and the implementation of targeted healthcare interventions. Accurate census data is a foundation for economic planning and development. It provides insights into the labour force, employment patterns, and income distribution. This information is essential for formulating policies that promote economic growth, create job opportunities, and reduce income inequality. Census data is instrumental in determining the allocation of political representation. It helps in the delimitation of constituencies, ensuring fair and equitable political representation at various levels. Accurate census figures also support effective governance by providing a comprehensive understanding of the population’s needs and priorities. Governments rely on census data to allocate resources effectively. This includes budgeting for infrastructure development, public services, and social welfare programmes. Accurate population figures are critical for ensuring that resources are distributed based on the actual needs and demographics of different regions. Census data serves as a baseline for monitoring and evaluating the impact of various policies and programmes over time. It allows for tracking changes in demographic trends, socio-economic indicators, and the effectiveness of government interventions. In summary, census data is indispensable for Nigeria’s development across multiple sectors. It provides the necessary information for evidence-based decision-making, enabling the government to address the unique challenges and opportunities presented by the country’s diverse and dynamic population.
Back to the past
Nigeria has undergone numerous population censuses, spanning from pre-independence to post-independence eras. The first census took place in 1866, followed by subsequent ones in 1871, 1881, 1891 and 1901. It wasn’t until the 1952/1953 census that Nigeria witnessed its first modern, national and meticulously planned population count. However, during this period, the principle of simultaneity was not strictly adhered to. The census in Northern Nigeria took place between May and July 1952, while in the West and Mid-West, it occurred in December 1952 and January 1953, respectively. In the East, the census extended from May to August 1953. This approach to enumeration created challenges in data comparability between regions, raising questions about the accuracy of the collected data. Additionally, this period coincided with the onset of the Second World War, fostering skepticism among citizens who believed the census aimed at conscripting soldiers for the war effort, leading to reluctance in participating in the enumeration process.
The first census that comprehensively covered the entire nation took place in 1962, conducted in May with substantial publicity. However, the results faced widespread rejection by regional authorities, citing high politicisation. The government’s refusal to acknowledge the 1962 census results prompted the 1963 population census. This subsequent census encountered even greater criticism than its predecessor, with some critics contending that the results were negotiated rather than accurately enumerated. The outcome of the 1963 census became the subject of contention in the Supreme Court, which ultimately ruled that it lacked jurisdiction over the administrative functions of the Federal Government. The 1973 Census, conducted between November 25 and December 2, encountered significant criticism and it was not published due to alleged intentional manipulation of census figures for political and/or ethnic advantages. The most scientifically conducted population census in Nigeria was the 1991 Census, carried out under Decree 23 of 1989, which established the National Population Commission (NPC). This census, conducted nationwide from November 27 to December 2, was considered highly scientific and widely accepted until another census was conducted in 2006. In March 2006, Nigeria undertook its first population and housing census, marking a historic shift by incorporating advanced technologies such as the Global Positioning System and Satellite Imagery for Geo-referenced Enumeration Areas (EAs). Machine-readable forms were also introduced for recording respondent information. Despite receiving some commendation, Nigeria has faced challenges in conducting subsequent exercises. The planned Population and Housing Census for 2016, one year after President Muhammadu Buhari assumed office, was hindered by the economic recession in 2017. Another attempt in 2020 was disrupted by the global Coronavirus pandemic. Despite these setbacks, the Buhari administration demonstrated determination by allocating N176 billion for the census in the 2022 budget. The first phase, involving trial house listing and house numbering, officially commenced in selected local government areas in 2022, with the nationwide census scheduled for April 2023, two months after the general elections. However, the hopes of Nigerians for a smooth, accurate, and widely accepted census were dashed when the past administration announced the postponement of the exercise.
Why Nigeria’s census figures are always doubted
Censuses in Nigeria have consistently been subject to political influence, primarily driven by the substantial impact population figures have on the allocation of federal funds to states and local governments. The belief that states with larger populations receive a greater share of the federation allocation incentivises attempts to artificially inflate population figures. Consequently, states and local governments often engage in efforts to exaggerate their census numbers, leading to instances where states or ethnic groups, perceiving figures as lower than their neighbors or historical rivals, reject the census results. This manipulation has undermined the reliability of census data for meaningful planning purposes.
In the 2006 census, Nigeria’s population was reported as 140 million, but current rough estimates now place it between 211 and 215 million, ranking the country as the seventh most populous globally. However, the pervasive influence of political motives raises questions about the credibility of these claims. Population figures in Nigeria play a crucial role in the delineation of legislative constituencies, with the House of Representatives and State Houses of Assembly representation being determined by population size. While the Senate is based on the equality of states, allotting three senators to each state, the House of Representatives is proportional to population. For instance, Lagos and Kano, as the most populous states, have 24 representatives each, while Bayelsa and Nasarawa states have only five each. The distribution of members in state houses of assembly also follows population patterns, with Lagos and Kano having the highest representation. Beyond its role in planning, Nigeria’s population census is deeply intertwined with politics, prompting politicians to exert significant efforts in manipulating the figures to their advantage. Another significant challenge faced in conducting a census in Nigeria is the issue of accuracy. The census data has been widely criticized for being inaccurate, primarily due to concerns such as under-counting, double counting, and inaccurate enumeration. This lack of precision erodes trust in the reliability of census data, posing obstacles to its effective use for planning and development purposes. All these issues can be addressed in the forthcoming census exercise. In conclusion, accurate census data is the cornerstone of national development, empowering governments to make informed decisions, allocate resources effectively, and design policies that address the diverse needs of their populations. A comprehensive understanding of demographics, economics, education, and healthcare derived from census data is essential for fostering inclusive and sustainable development. As nations continue to evolve, periodic and accurate census-taking remains an indispensable tool for steering the course of progress.
