By : Baba Yusuf
As the administration of President Bola Tinubu gains critical momentum while facing significant global and national challenges, the key issue of priorities arises with regards to how Mr. President will manage Nigeria through this turbulent time. In this episode, I will dimension some of the inhibitors that I metaphorically call “the elephants the room” that must be tackled decisively for any meaningful progress to be made in the four years of this administration. The two elephants in the room for today’s discussion are; the cost of governance and the structure of the Nigerian Civil Service. The Clock is already ticking!
Dimensioning the challenges:
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration is inheriting the following situation:
- Debt stock of over N77 trillion; Debt to GDP ratio of over 23%; interest rate of over 20% and rising; Economic growth rate is currently at about 3.1% but projected to contract to about 2.9% next year (according to IMF); 41% unemployment rate; over 133 million (about 65% of the national population) of Nigerians multidimensionally poor, etc.
- Additionally, according to the President of Africa Development Bank, Mr. Akinwumi Adesina, Nigeria now spends about 96% of its revenue servicing debt, with the debt-to-revenue ratio rising from 83.2 percent in 2021 to 96.3 percent by 2022. It is also worthy of note that out of the entire Nigeria’s 2023 budget; only 30% of total expenditure will be spent on critical capital projects. The non-debt recurrent expenditure (NDRE) of over N8 trillion is the largest expense in the budget (amounting to about 40%), i.e,16% higher than the 2022 revised budget of N7.11 trillion. This includes overhead cost of N4.99 trillion, which accounts for over 60% of non-debt recurrent expenditure, etc.
The above stated statistics amongst other negative indices pant a gory situation. Therefore, urgent and drastic institutional reforms which hitherto could not be done by previous administrations of past 15 years must be undertaken as a matter of priority, for any meaningful progress to be achieved in this dispensation.
Cost Of Governance
The bold move by President Bola Tinubu of confirming the removal of fuel subsidy on the day of his inauguration has become the catalyst for Mr. President to reset the Government of Nigeria and consequently rest our economy for the better. However, as the citizens of Nigeria agree to buy-in and accept the fuel subsidy removal with all the challenges it will bring for a better tomorrow, Nigerians will expect that topline politicians and government functionaries should lead by example by making sacrifices and also bearing the brunt at this point in time. Nigerians expect to see significant cuts on the big-ticket items and cost elements in budgets and expenditures, and in how Government is managed, moving forward. This is the only way to engender the trust and confidence in Nigerians, and subsequently earn their support at this critical period of nation building.
A situation whereby whenever serious decisions are taken by Government, it is only the citizens that are expected to make sacrifices and bear the brunt for a better Nigeria is no longer acceptable because Nigerian are now more politically conscious than any time in the history of Nigeria. Accordingly, the best way to make sustainable progress is if sacrifices are started by the leaders at the top; i.e. Executive, Legislature. And by the aforementioned I am not only referring to the Federal Government but also the State Governments.
Based on the aforementioned, with regards to the cost of governance, my humble recommendations to Mr. President and the State Governors are as follows:
Quick wins (starting immediate and to be achieved within the next 3 months)
- Immediate tangible downward review of expenditures by topline leaders (Executive and Legislature) the cost of running their various offices and institutions – Leadership by example
- Reduction of the number of Government appointees at Federal and State levels.
- The National Assembly also needs to cut down its expenditure which most Nigerians believe is overt-bloated and costly without due consideration to the citizens
- Cost reduction/ containment/ blockage of operational and transactional leakages
- Reduction of operating costs of Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs).
- Streamline Capital expenditure through prudent costing, while balancing cost with quality
- Enforcement of laws and regulations
Mid to long term (starting from the next 3 months)
- Elimination of Budget Padding by the Executive and Legislature
- Elimination of procurement malpractices
- Streamline MDA structures and functions to eliminate duplicity of functions and costs
- Ensure collection of all revenues that should accrue to Government
- Zero tolerance to sharp practices of non-remittance of revenues by revenue generating entities of government and also by government private partners, i.e Concessionaires and other PPP partners
- For revenue generating MDAs to be creative by generating diverse revenue pipelines
- Ensure collection of all taxes due from the big businesses (local and foreign).
- Zero tolerance to all forms of economic sabotage
The above-mentioned actions will free up resources that can be optimized for better economic management
Structure Of The Civil Service
I align with the calls for the implementation of the Oronsaye Report (with the relevant tweaks) as a way of streamlining civil service and reducing cost of governance.
In addition to the aforementioned, I will further distill the specifics beyond streamlining the MDAs. Indeed, in addition to the Oronsaye Report and other recommendations given by the various advisory Committees setup by Mr. President; there are other critical action points that should be taken to ensure the achievement of the reduction of the cost of governance and the achievement of efficiencies for better socio-economic impacts. I will also suggest some action points and critical success factors required to ensure the success of dealing with these “two elephants in the room”.
It is also worthy of note that the last year, the Bureau for Public Service Reforms stated that the total headcount of civil servants as of last year in Nigeria was 720,000, i.e less than 1million! That is less than 1% of the total population of Nigeria. It is additionally instructive to note here that according to IMF, about 80% (about 160million Nigerians) of Nigerians operate in the informal sector. The informal sector is not covered by the safety nets of organized labor organization like the Nigeria Labor Congress. Accordingly, in the scheme of things, the Civil Service gulps almost the entire national revenue. There is the need for Mr. President to immediately address this worrisome anomaly. Little wonder strife and criminality pervade every section of Nigeria.
The informal sector and the vulnerable/ multidimensionally poor need to be catered-for in the overall reform masterplan of President Tinubu as he states in his Renewed Hope Agenda.
Political will – A key to success
In the Renewed Hope Manifesto of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, promised “…streamline the amount that government spends on itself”. In another part of the document Mr. President also state that, “…our administration will adhere strictly to the principle that public funds are only to be spent on the public goof and we shall strive to reduce the overall cost of the Federal Government….”. The aforementioned excerpts, encapsulate the readiness this administration to do the needful to deal with those aforementioned “elephants in the room”. Based on his actions within the past 3 weeks of his administration, I am of the opinion that Mr. President has the political will to fulfill his promise and mandate for a better Nigeria.
Critical Next Steps
•Cultural change and value re-orientation
•Review of the salary structure, job evaluation and compensation system
•Transformation of the Civil Service to be in tune with global best practices
•Performance management and consequence management (reward and punishment in line with public service rules).
•Entrenchment of the culture of meritocracy, competence, federal character and performance.
•Entrenchment of the culture of excellence and prudence in public sector by providing quintessential leadership, i.e. starting the reforms from the top and setting examples with zero tolerance to indolence, mediocrity, nepotism and sycophancy.
Critical Success Factors
- Political Will and high execution quotient at the top starting with Mr. President to all leaders at all strata of governance.
- Critical stakeholder engagement
- A communication strategy to carry everybody along and the transparency of the entire process
- Transparency and Accountability in public service, resources allocation and utilization
- Anticorruption Strategy and value-reorientation: Beyond mantra to action through realistic, practical and pragmatic plans and actions with the requisite strategy, management and execution.
- The judiciary should play its role without fear or favour and not allow itself to be used to undermine the process of reforming our country for the better while ensuring that justice is served to all. The Judiciary will stand to be counted as one of the institutions that supported or frustrated the progress of Nigeria. Lest we forget that the Judiciary is also part of Civil Service.
Points To Note
We can restructure and streamline the public service as much as we want, but without the aforementioned critical success factors, especially culture change and value re-orientation, performance and consequence management, and anticorruption, all that will be done in vain; for as Otto von Bismarck – First Chancellor of the German Empire in 1871 once said, “With bad laws and good civil servants, it’s still possible to govern. But with bad civil servants even the best laws can’t help.”
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