The business of electing the next heads of the Senate and House of Representatives is currently trailed by plenty of intrigue and drama. In other climes this would be a straightforward matter because of the established legislative traditions.
For instance, whoever is Minority Leader of the United States Senate naturally assumes the position of Majority Leader when his party’s lawmakers have the largest number in the chamber. It is seamless.
But here in Nigeria we manage to create a circus every four years where everybody wants to be Senate President or Speaker of the House, not on the basis of any concept of legislative seniority or expertise, but due to our peculiar primordial concerns with ethnicity and religion.
These positions are also now means of promoting inclusion in the political process. Add to this the prestige, trappings of office and opportunities to dole out patronage and they become things that politicians can kill for.
Beyond being avenues for people to satisfy their ego and ambition, the type of leadership that the legislative branch has, ultimately determines how successful the occupant of the executive branch would be. They cannot achieve much when they are confronted by obstructionists who are more interested in fighting ideological battles, or just want to exercise power.
In an ideal situation the legislature exists to provide checks and balances so that the executive doesn’t veer into excess. But exercising this function shouldn’t necessarily translate into outright hostility between the arms. Unfortunately, there are those who think that the successful parliament is one that is permanently at odds with the other branch.
Where lawmakers cooperate with the president to make laws or get things done, they are slated as rubberstamps. But while governments are more productive when these branches are working in tandem, a fine balance has to be struck such that legislators can still hold office holders to account and perform oversight functions with integrity. It requires a certain level of political maturity to pull off.
The recognition that every administration needs a friendly Senate and House to push through its legislative agenda has forced most Fourth Republic presidents to take keen interest in those who would get to lead parliament.
In 1999, then President Olusegun Obasanjo understood this all too well that he went out of his way to install his preferred candidates as leaders of the National Assembly. Ahead of the inauguration of the Senate back then, late Senator Chuba Okadigbo was very popular within the ranks of his colleagues.
But the wily general knew that Okadigbo, an accomplished academic and experienced politician who had been too stridently making noises about the independence of the legislature wouldn’t be a pushover. So he deployed the great clout of his office to make Evan Enwerem run against him.
By the time the dust settled, the president’s man easily defeated the charismatic and flamboyant politician by 66 votes to 43 votes. It was a stunning upset that left Okadigbo transfixed to his seat long after his rival had seized the gavel.
Enwerem’s tenure would be short, truncated by corruption allegations. On his fall, Okadigbo finally achieved his dream of becoming Senate President against Obasanjo’s wishes. He would not last long on the hot seat. But while he sat there he gave the occupant of Aso Rock nightmares. His tenure was turbulent and not much was achieved because of the unceasing battles that ultimately toppled him in 2000.
The story was not much different in the House of Representatives where Salisu Buhari who the president preferred had a brief reign, undone by a certificate scandal. With him out of the way, young turks who were determined to assert themselves installed Ghali Umar Na’Abba as Speaker. His tenure was unending battle with the executive that reached its climax with a tense attempt at impeaching Obasanjo.
Ever since, presidents have taken an interest in who gets to run the Senate or House. That was until 2015 when the new ruling party, according established tradition, tried to provide guidance for its lawmakers in picking their leaders. Unfortunately, then President Muhammadu Buhari didn’t understand how important it was for him to get those he could work with in place.
Despite the fact that he clearly preferred Ahmad Lawan as Senate President and Femi Gbajabiamila as Speaker, he didn’t deploy the immense powers of his office to help their emergence. His body language encouraged Senator Bukola Saraki and Yakubu Dogara to defy their party with virtually no consequence.
A party that had a comfortable majority in both chambers found itself in the humiliating position of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory when a rebellious rump made common cause with the opposition.
The coalition that threw up the new leaders was not beholden to the All Progressives Congress (APC) and would thwart Buhari’s agenda for most of his first four years. The president had declared that he could work with anybody. It wasn’t long before he discovered he had been overconfident.
Many people attribute the modest nature of achievements in his first term to a hostile National Assembly. By 2019, he had learnt his lessons and while publicly making noises about not meddling in legislative matters, was quite willing to let his political enforcers deliver the duo of Lawan and Gbajabiamila who had been thwarted four years earlier.
What was achieved between 2019 and 2023 working with the model of cooperation and mutual respect between the arms is evident from the number of bills passed and signed into law – among them the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), the new Electoral Act and sundry enactments that amended sections of the 1999 constitution.
Despite these results, many who pine for the days when the National Assembly and Executive were regularly engaged in arm wrestling dismissed the Lawan parliament as mere yes-men. This is most uncharitable. We have to ask ourselves what we want; arms of government working together to deliver on the people’s agenda or a bunch of egomaniacs competing to see who has more hair on their chest?
Come next week, the Senate and House would vote to elect new presiding officers. Again, it should ordinarily be a straightforward affair with the ruling party being the biggest party in both chambers. But we are seeing elements of what occurred in 2015 rumbling beneath the surface. Despite the party stating its preferences, some of its members are working against those choices.
Experienced politicians who should know better believe that the Saraki model of going against your party is worth reprising. In the Senate especially the suspense is being sustained by fact that the election would be conducted using secret ballot and rebellion is best executed away from prying eyes.
However, the cast in the power struggle this time is quite different, so also is the approach. The ruling party and its leaders have made no pretence about what they want. It isn’t just about the personalities but also about lowering ethnic and religious tensions that were exacerbated during the general elections.
Despite the air of intrigue, the smart money still bets on APC imposing its will. They understand what’s at stake; how a different outcome would leave them in the very awkward position of having all the important offices of state occupied by adherents of one religion. It would be like weaponising the faith issue all over, after barely escaping its damaging fallout at the recent polls.
One of the aspirants, Abdulaziz Yari, argues that religion isn’t in the constitution. That’s true. But zoning is also not in the constitution; yet realpolitik has forced all parties to embrace it as an article of faith at state and federal levels – to promote harmony and inclusion.
Luckily for the ruling party, the opposition is fractured, with divisions in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) caused by its G5 tendency coming to play again in the National Assembly contest. Those who argue that all APC lawmakers won’t toe the party line should understand it is the same within Labour Party, New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) and All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) ranks.
Unlike Buhari who was indifferent in 2015, President Bola Tinubu understands how important it is for him to have friendly faces at the legislative end if his ambitious reform agenda is to become reality. All the signs are that he will fight to put his preferred working model in place.
