By Enam Obioso
For decades, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited sat at the centre of public suspicion.
Every spike in oil prices sparked a new round of accusation, every dip opened the door to speculation, and every audit prompted arguments about what was paid, what was deducted, and what was truly missing.
The latest claim, a supposed N210 trillion gap in NNPC’s accounts, followed the same pattern.
It swept through the public space quickly, but analysts were blunt in their response: the allegation belonged more to myth than to mathematics.
What stands out today is not the noise around the numbers, but the way the new NNPC Limited is choosing to confront it. There is a marked shift toward openness, documented reporting, and a willingness to let auditors, analysts, and even critics examine the books. In many ways, this is the quiet revolution shaping Nigeria’s most strategic company.
The phantom trillions and the new clarity
When lawmakers raised the N210 trillion claim, some analysts, such as Professor Uche Uwaleke, an authority in accounting and capital market, Mr. Victor Eromosele, former chief financial officer at Nigerian top companies, dismissed it as “an accounting impossibility that reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of national cash flows.” They explained that the figure was larger than the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and far beyond what decades of crude oil sales could produce.
More importantly, they said the allegation stems from treating gross revenue as if it belonged to NNPC to lose. In the words of one them, “the total sales value was never NNPC’s money. It was always subject to first-line charges: funding joint venture (JV) cash calls, paying for petrol subsidies, and covering operational costs before anything could be remitted to the Federation Account.”
This was the structural flaw of the old system. NNPC served as both operator and collector. It deducted costs first, remitted later, and battled constant suspicion over the balance.
The analyst noted that this confusion is exactly what the Petroleum Industry Act was designed to end. The new framework “makes NNPC a taxed and dividend-paying entity, separating its commercial finances from state revenue in a clear, auditable way.”
Cash calls and the shift to discipline
The transformation is also evident in how NNPC now handles joint venture funding. Under the old structure, cash call delays were routine. They stalled investment, caused mounting arrears, and froze new projects. But the expert describes the issue as structural, not ethical. “The JV cash call system was historically the Achilles heel of the sector. Government budgets simply could not keep up.”
The new incorporated joint venture model changed that. “This means the JVs are now standalone legal entities with their own financing, moving liabilities off NNPC’s balance sheet,” he said. The company’s claim that it no longer owes cash calls holds true under this new system. Legacy arrears are being resolved in a controlled process, while new projects are funded on schedule. International partners have responded by approving multi-billion-dollar investments that previously sat on hold.
Profit, performance, and the question of sustainability
NNPC’s N5.4 trillion profit in the 2024 financial year raised eyebrows, but analysts warn against seeing it as a fluke. Yes, the removal of the petrol subsidy removed a major financial burden. Yet the analyst pointed to deeper changes within the company. “Look beyond the top line. Operating expenses per barrel are falling, and refinery utilisation is rising. This shows structural improvement, not just a policy-driven windfall.”
The next test, he said, is capital discipline. “If this profit is used to fund high-return, low-cost projects and gas infrastructure, it creates a virtuous cycle. If it is pulled into quasi-fiscal duties, the gains will evaporate.”
So far, the company’s strategy signals the former. There is an emphasis on upstream reinvestment, gas expansion, and long-term, revenue-generating assets.
The transparency model that never existed before
Critics often point to opacity in past remittances, but the analyst stresses that those issues belonged to another era. “The old model was inherently opaque because NNPC was both a commercial operator and a revenue collector. The new model is fundamentally cleaner.”
Under the current structure, NNPC sells its crude, pays its taxes, pays royalties, and then pays dividends. Each of these is a distinct, auditable line item.
“This makes tracking and verification infinitely easier,” he said, adding that IFRS-compliant reporting and external audits give the public something they rarely had in the past: verifiable numbers.
Gas, the transition, and the long game
Some observers have questioned the heavy investment in gas infrastructure like the AKK pipeline, suggesting it might become a stranded asset. The analyst strongly disagrees.
“That view misunderstands both the global transition and Nigeria’s context. Gas will remain in demand until at least 2050. For Nigeria, this is not just about transition but about industrialisation.”
He explained that the AKK pipeline is designed to replace diesel use, reduce emissions, power industry, and strengthen the non-oil economy. “These pipelines can even be retrofitted for hydrogen. This is a strategically sound investment in national infrastructure.”
The strongest evidence: voluntary transparency
Perhaps the most telling sign of change lies not in numbers but behaviour. The analyst said the real proof of transformation is the company’s willingness to subject itself to scrutiny. “By holding an earnings call, they are inviting analysts to scrutinise every claim.
By publishing IFRS-compliant accounts audited by a major firm, they are creating a legally binding record of their performance. By talking about an IPO, they are signalling an intention to be valued by global investors.”
His conclusion was blunt: “You cannot fake this for long. The market will punish any regression.”
A turning point built on openness
In a sector where suspicion once overshadowed facts, the new NNPC Limited is betting on transparency as a strategy. The numbers are clearer, the obligations are cleaner, and the company’s operations are more visible than at any time in its history. Nigeria’s energy future still carries uncertainties, but the shift from opacity to accountability proves to be the most important reform yet.
•Obioso, a veteran journalist, writes from Abuja
