Author: The Nation

Whether the ordinary folks like it or not, the main issue that will be in the front burner of the national discourse henceforth shall be the politics of 2027 general elections. Politicians understand that the few months of campaign period, approved by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), in its guidelines, in accordance with the Electoral Act, are not enough. INEC’s guideline usually provides for a period of 90 days, as the campaign period before elections. For this column, as the campaign ramps up, the core issue should be which of the presidential candidate has the best competence to grow the national economy, which will reduce the poverty level in the country, which will in turn substantially abate the ravaging insecurity across the country.

So, the core issues should be who has the best competence to improve the national economy and the capacity to deal with the mutating insecurity across the country. Obviously the frontrunner is the incumbent, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (PBAT). Amongst the contenders, the two with some chance of giving the president a run for his money, remains, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, now both of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Their former parties, the PDP and the Labour Party are in disarray and instead of waiting to see whether the political carcasses would fall on them, have joined other aggrieved politicians to seek refuge in ADC.     

Before Tinubu took over from President Muhammadu Buhari in 2023, this column had argued on occasions that amongst the then three leading candidates (same as now), Tinubu had the best credentials to deal with the staggering national economy. The fact is that he has not disappointed on that score. The twin challenges haemorrhaging the national economy before the 2023 general elections, were the fuel subsidy scam and the multiple foreign exchange platforms. To the shock of many Nigerians, PBAT confronted them head on, and after the initial headwinds, no one can doubt that the national economy is stronger since then.

The other two candidates, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, agreed with the need to tackle those twin challenges, albeit with a caveat that they would have done it differently. Obi argued that the government should have put forward some palliative before slaying the dragons. I am not sure what Atiku said he would have done differently, apart from the claim that the timing was wrong. Since the deed had been done, the duo should come up with what they can do better to quicken the healing process of the very necessary economic operation the nation went through in 2023. The Tinubu administration would on its part push for stability, through a re-election, to achieve full recuperation for the patient.    

But to keep themselves in the mind of the electorates, politicians design all manner of subterfuge to engage in campaign well ahead of the period provided by the laws. Of interest, despite the provision of section 977(1) of the Electoral Act, 2022, the campaigns oscillate around religion and tribe. That section provides: “A candidate, person or association who engages in campaigning or broadcasting based on religion, tribal, or section reason for the purpose of promoting or opposing a particular political party or the election of a particular candidate, commits an offence under this Act and is liable on conviction – (a) to a maximum fine of N1,000,000 or imprisonment for a term of 12 months or both; and (b) in the case of political party to a minimum of N10,000,000.”  

Despite the clear provision of section 97(1) of the Electoral Act, most of the campaign materials and argument, especially on the presidential election, have been based “on religious, tribal, or sectional reason”. For many Nigerians, it will be very absurd, if a presidential candidate from the southern part of the country is not allowed to complete eight years as president, when the immediate past president, from the northern part of the country, late President Buhari, spent full eight years, in power. The issue of religion is also on the front burner, the candidates and their supporters have always pushed that issue, especially if they have a presidential and vice presidential candidates from the two main religions in the country. 

Even the constitution of some political parties, are reputed to provide for rotating the presidency between the north and south, and governorship election between the senatorial zones. Section 7(2)(c) of the constitution of the PDP, provides “The Party shall pursue these aims and objectives – adhering to the policy of the rotation and zoning of Party and Public elective offices in pursuance of the principle of equity, justice and fairness.” On its part, Article 20(iv)(e) of the constitution of the APC, provides: “Procedure for Nomination of Candidates – Without prejudice to Article 20(u) and (iii) of this Constitution, the National Working Committee shall subject to the approval of the National Executive Committee make Rules and Regulations for the nomination of candidates through primary elections. All such Rules, Regulations and Guidelines shall take into consideration and uphold the principle of federal character, gender balance, geo-political spread and rotation of offices, so as to as much as possible ensure balance within the constituency covered.”

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Can it be argued that section 97(1) of the Electoral Act, which prohibits campaigning, based on ethnic or sectional reason offends the principle of federal character, as enshrined in the 1999 constitution? Section 14(3) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999, (as amended), provides: “The composition of the Government of the Federation or any of its agencies and the conduct of its affairs shall be carried out in such a manner as to reflect the federal character of Nigeria and the need to promote national unity, and also to command national loyalty, thereby ensuring that there shall be no predominance of persons from a few state or from a few ethnic or other sectional groups in that Government or in any of its agencies.”

Perhaps, it is the superiority of the constitution over the Electoral Act that makes the candidates and their supporters to significantly ignore the warning as provided in section 97(1) of the Electoral Act. While section 14(3) is silent on religion, it was explicit on banning persons from a few states, few ethnic or other sectional groups from dominating the government or any of its agencies.

This column believes that apart from the twin challenges of economy and security, upon which most other things revolve, the question whether it would be fair for northern part of the country to produce another president, when the southern part of the country has not completed eight years, after the eight years of Buhari, would be a fair campaign issue. So, inevitably, the issue of religion, ethnicity and what section of the country, a presidential candidate comes from, would all play a part in shaping the 2027 elections.