An interesting strand in Antonio Gramsci’s popular theory of hegemony is the process by which a leader (or more precisely a ruling class) attains or maintains power by building alliances across various classes and social groupings. In multi-ethnic nations, such as Nigeria, such alliances will have to be built across regions, ethnic groups, faiths, and various unions and associations. Any leader or political party that succeeds in building such alliances in Nigeria will be on the way to electoral victory. This was clearly demonstrated by the victory of the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, during the presidential election of February 25, 2023.
Unfortunately, however, the focus on a few shortcomings during the election and the attendant rhetoric of failure dwarfed the election’s major gains. To be sure, some of these gains have been discussed as part of post-election analysis. However, discussions have been limited to obvious gains, such as the widening of the political space beyond two major political parties to a three-, if not four-horse race; large youth participation and their influence on the race; and the role of technology, specifically, the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System, in checkmating over-voting and the practice by which powerful politicians generated desired results for themselves.
However, a major, but neglected, lesson from the election, which demands close attention, emanates from Tinubu’s path to victory, which highlights the key role of alliances in the attainment and maintenance of power in a diverse society, such as ours. In order to appreciate the lesson, it is necessary to review the path Tinubu had treaded.
Unlike Peter Obi of the Labour Party, who relied heavily on Christians and his ethnic group, spearheaded by Igbo youths, or Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, who could not even maintain inherited alliances, Tinubu took his time in forging alliances. He had been at it since he ran for Senate and won in 1992 and later joined forces with pro-democracy activists from 1993 through 1998, even while he was in exile. However, it was his election as Governor of Lagos State that led to a resurgence of his bridge-building activities, which became a preoccupation after he left office.
He established a political party after the seeming death of the Alliance for Democracy. With the political party, Action Congress, later renamed Action Congress of Nigeria, Tinubu widened his base beyond Lagos to encompass the entire Southwest zone. By 2013, the party’s power base had spread to Edo, Kogi, Bauchi, Plateau, Niger, and Adamawa, each of which had at least a Governor or a member in the National Assembly. Two different candidates from the North, Atiku Abubakar (2007) and Nuhu Ribadu (2011), even ran for President on ACN platform.
But Tinubu was not done. He went ahead for a much broader base by joining forces with others to form the merger of ACN with the Congress for Progressive Change, the All Nigeria Peoples Party, and a faction of the All Progressive Grand Alliance, which gave birth to the APC. His perceived role in the merger earned him the title of National Leader of APC, ostensibly conferred upon him by the press. The formation of the APC took Tinubu across the country, while many others visited his Bourdillon residence in droves. In the process, he succeeded in building alliances across regions, ethnic groups, unions and associations, and faith-based organizations, such as churches and mosques. The experience accelerated Tinubu’s coalition building on a national scale.
The coalition was first successfully deployed to propel Muhammadu Buhari to power in 2015 and re-election in 2019. It was Buhari’s failure to build such a coalition that led to his failed bid for the presidency on three previous occasions.
By the time Tinubu announced his run for the presidency in late 2021, he had established political structures in every state of the country. But he did not rest on his oars. He embarked on the campaign for his party nomination well before any other aspirant, building networks of supporters and garnering endorsements. He also embarked on a gruesome campaign schedule after winning the party primary. Unlike Atiku, Tinubu reconciled with co-contestants for the party’s presidential ticket. He covered more grounds than any other presidential candidate and sought local and international perspectives on how to run a successful presidential campaign. The result was a most comprehensive manifesto and a well organized campaign.
Rooted firmly in the alliances he had built, Tinubu was able to challenge sinister efforts within his own party to truncate his nomination. The challenge was met with a chorus of support, especially from Northern Governors. He even opposed policies supported by the President of his own party, such as the Naira redesign policy, leading his allies to approach the Supreme Court over the policy and winning a victory for the people. During the campaign, Tinubu also boldly led the conversations on other critical matters of state, such as fuel scarcity, removing fuel subsidy, and unifying the foreign exchange regime. On these national issues, his opponents either followed his lead, waffled or said nothing. Only a bold candidate with a nation-wide support base could have taken on some of these issues.
Tinubu’s alliances are evident in the spread of his votes: He won the majority of votes. He is the only candidate who won at least one state in each of five of the six zones. He also won 25 percent of the votes in 30 states. No other candidate had similar spread or met the 24-state threshold.
The pattern of Tinubu’s votes is better appreciated in comparison to those of his competitors. For example, while Obi relied heavily on ethnic and Christian votes, Tinubu garnered votes across regions, ethnic groups, and faiths. Obi is the only candidate who won every state in his zone. He is also the only candidate whose zone did not allow any other candidate to have the required 25 percent of the votes.
Furthermore, while Obi won Lagos (Tinubu’s home state) with 582,454 votes, Tinubu only managed to garner a mere 5,111 votes in Anambra (Obi’s home state)! Yet, a Tinubu supporter was allegedly shot dead in Onitsha in Obi’s home state for celebrating Tinubu’s victory. The sad incident brings into sharper focus Hon. Ginika Tor’s tale of intimidation of APC supporters in the Southeast during the presidential election (see How we were prevented from voting Tinubu in the Southeast, The Nation, March 5, 2023).
It will be rewarding to investigate voter suppression in the Southeast in order to understand what happened to Tinubu’s allies in the zone.
