Category: Energy

  • Battle for the soul of ‘Atala’

    Battle for the soul of ‘Atala’

    Two years after, claims and counter-claims continue to trail the reallocation of the OML 46, known as the Atala oil field. Its new owner, Halkin Exploration and Production Company Limited, insists it legally acquired the asset in line with existing regulations, MUYIWA LUCAS reports

    The call for the revocation and reallocation of the former Oil Mining Licence (OML) 46, known as the Atala Marginal Oil Field, has been loud following its acquisition by its current operator, Halkin Exploration and Production Company Limited. The oil field was formerly owned by the trio of Bayelsa Oil Company Limited (BOCL), Hardy, and Century Exploration and Production Limited (CEPL).

    Recently, the battle to reclaim the asset by its previous owners was taken to the presidency when Governor Duole Diri of Bayelsa State, accompanied by his predecessor, Senator Seriake Dickson, amongst others, during a visit to President Muhammadu Buhari requested him to restore the OML 46 to the state. He alleged that it was unjustly revoked and awarded to a private company.

    The Senate had also recently, after looking into a petition brought before it by the former co-owner of the oilfield, Hardy Oil Nigeria Limited, ordered the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) to revoke the Atala field licence and give it back to its former owners.

    Concerns

    The basis for the revocation of the licence was not unconnected with the BOCL and its partners’ inability to bring the field to full production as contained in the terms of award. This situation grew to become a source of concern to some of the partners on the project, especially the CEPL. This is because CEPL, as the technical and financial services provider with an “80 percent participatory / funding interest” in the joint venture (JV) partnership, had invested over $100 million in the project as part of its JV funding commitment.

    CEPL, in an appeal to the then Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR), via a letter dated October 3, 2019, sought the “urgent intervention of the DPR to manage this asset in the interim due to risk / exposure on this asset (OML 46); the non-alignment of JV partners and the continued loss of revenue to the Federal Government of Nigeria and all stakeholders.” The JV partner was obviously concerned about protecting its “ongoing financial risk exposure to service providers from inception on December 1, 2012 till October 31, 2019 on Atala oil field.”

    The October 3, 2019 letter by CEPL to the DPR, which was signed by the Managing Director of CEPL, Osas Uwaifo, was sent one and half years after the extension granted to the BOCL to bring the Atala oil field to full production had lapsed, precisely on April 30, 2018. The now defunct DPR had earlier granted an extension to the BOCL and its partners on the OML 46 on April 12, 2016 to afford it more time to bring the field to full production. The Atala oil field was first awarded to the BOCL in 2003, and its licence expired in 2018 and was subsequently revoked in line with the country’s petroleum laws.

    It was also gathered that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), which has since replaced the DPR, via a letter dated April 6, 2020, had explained that the revocation of Atala field was because BOCL and its JV partners “failed to develop the field and bring it to full production before the expiration of the granted extension period which elapsed on 30th April, 2018.”

    In the April 30, 2018 letter of revocation sent to BOCL, the NUPRC provided a window for the BOCL and its partners to either reapply for the licence or any other licence available in the basket during the “next bid round”. There is no evidence that the BOCL took advantage of the window to reclaim the licence or any other licence.

    The Act

    For some stakeholders, the revocation and reallocation of the oil field should not be an issue to contest as long as it is established that the oil regulators complied with the provisions of the Petroleum Act. This Act empowers the Minister of Petroleum in its Section 2, to grant and revoke oil field licences.

    The procedures for the revocation of oil prospecting licenses or oil mining licences by the Minister of Petroleum is highlighted in Section 25-26 of the Act. The Section states that such licences can be revoked where: the licensee or lessee which is an oil company becomes controlled ultimately or indirectly by a non-Nigerian or a foreigner; the licence granted can be revoked if the licencee or lessees (oil firms) are not conducting their operations or activities continuously or not conducting their operations in a business-like manner by requirements approved for the lessee and not conducting their activities in accordance with good oil field practices; licences granted can be revoked if oil firms fail to adhere to the provisions of the Petroleum Act and other allied regulations or laws. The Minister can also revoke oil licences granted if oil companies fail to pay their rent or royalties within the specified period and if they fail to submit reports on its operations or activities as the Minister may require from time to time.

    Going forward

    For now, the “Red Chambers” of the National Assembly is the battleground for which the BOCL and its JV partners are seeking a revocation of the licence granted to HEPL. But this wish may be a tall order given the explanation from the new operator of the field, HEPL.

    The provisions in the Act may have provided cover for HEPL claims that it legally acquired the Atala oil field. Explaining the state of affairs around the oil asset, its Director of Communications, Mr. Osagie Amusa-Eke disclosed that the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) now known as the NUPRC had in 2003 issued 13 licences to indigenous oil firms which expired in 2018. However, as at the time of its expiration, the Atala Field was yet to come into full production. Therefore, he said, following the failure to bring the field into full production, the licence was then revoked and returned to the basket as approved by Buhari, who is also the Minister of Petroleum.

    Still, over a year after the licence was revoked by the NUPRC, and in line with petroleum laws, HEPL, he said, legally applied and was duly awarded the OML 46 to operate, on the condition that the company brought the field into full production; and a signature bonus of over $8 million paid to the Federal Government.

    “When there were petitions to HEPL being awarded the licence, we were cleared by NUPRC after a thorough investigation of our application process. Within a year of taking over the Atala field, our firm has invested millions of dollars into its operations in the field, deploying over 100 Nigerian personnel on site.

    “HEPL is committed to bringing the Atala Field to full production to increase the Federal Government’s revenue. To this end, we have made huge investments and will continue to do so for the duration of the licence. This we will do with our top management team of Nigerians from Bayelsa State and other Niger Delta states. All that we ask is that we are allowed to do the work we’ve been awarded the licence to do,” Amusa-Eke said.

    He said his firm continuously engaged its host communities to foster a peaceful working relationship in its operating environment and concluded corporate social responsibility (CSR) projects like solar lighting initiatives for host communities with plans to do more projects.  This is the reason why members of the host communities are delighted that HEPL is now in charge of the Oil field.

  • Nigeria’s oil quota conundrum

    Nigeria’s oil quota conundrum

    At a critical time like this, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is experiencing drop in production quotas from member nations. Unfortunately, Nigeria, in almost one year, has consistently fallen short of meeting her allocated quota, especially at a time when the commodity has become bullish with its price hitting the rooftop. What are the implications of these for the country and OPEC. MUYIWA LUCAS asks.

    Going by the current bullish trend in the international crude oil market, propelled by the increasing demand for the commodity, it is safe to say that oil producing countries like Nigeria will be smiling to the bank now. Since the last quarter of 2021, oil price has remained on the rising side and now further buoyed by the ongoing Russia/Ukraine War.

    The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), acting as regulator in the international oil domain and aware of the likely situation that may arise from the unfolding development, has tried to steady the production quota, not only to avoid a glut in the market but also to prevent a shortfall even as sanction against the world’s second largest producer and supplier of the commodity, Russia, gets tougher.

    For instance, amidst fears of a possible seven million barrels loss of oil from the Russian pipes, OPEC may have moved decisively by increasing production quota allocation to member countries.

    At its last meeting, the organisation approved a production quota of 1.830 million barrels per day in September from 1.826 million barrels per day in August. For Nigeria, this is not the first time OPEC will be granting an enhanced production output for the country.  Earlier in the year, allocated output to Nigeria stood at 1.7mb/d; 1.8mb/d; 1.718mb/d and 1.735 for January, February, March and April respectively.

    Still, while OPEC’s quota for Nigeria in June 2022, for instance, was 1.772mbpd, the country could only produce 1.158mbpd. The country’s production in June, was, however, higher than its production in the preceding month of May 2022 by 134 million barrels per day. Nigeria’s oil production in May 2022 was 1.024mbpd, but this moved up to 1.158mbpd in June, though far lower than the 1.772mbpd production quota by OPEC.

    Shortfall

    This year, notwithstanding the enhanced production output granted the country, it has remained impossible to meet up with the allocation. For instance, available reports from OPEC showed that the country has fallen short of all its production allocations for this year. In its report, OPEC captured the country’s output at 1.399mb/d in January; 1.25mb/d in February and 1.354mb/d in March. The report added that Nigeria maintained an average daily oil production of 1.424mb in 2021, while so far this year, it is producing below 1.4 mb/d failing to meet its OPEC quota.

    But failing to meet production output capacity is not strange to Nigeria. Last year, in August, the country managed a paltry 1.23mbpd, which was a major drop from the 1.32mbpd it produced a month earlier, while it  produced 1.246mbpd in September and 1.227mb/d in October. This was at a time when the country had 1.6mbpd as its production output target.

    A report by Cordros Capital indicated that Nigeria’s oil sector contracted for the seventh consecutive quarter with a negative growth print of 8.1 per cent in fourth quarter 2021, bringing 2021 full year oil sector negative growth to 8.3 per cent. However, providing some comfort was the trend of slowing contraction in the oil sector as the negative growth of 8.1 per cent in fourth quarter 2021 was 4.6 percentage points and 2.7 percentage points slower than the 12.7 per cent and 10.7 per cent contraction in second quarter 2021 and third quarter 2021.

    Causes

    The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has also confirmed the various shortfalls this year. NUPRC noted Nigeria lost more than 115,000 barrels per day (bpd), valued at $3.27 billion worth of crude oil to oil theft and vandalism between January 2021 and February 2022.

    According to analysts, the steady decline in oil production is directly associated with operational and maintenance issues, supported by incessant pipeline vandalism, which has prevented Nigeria from meeting its OPEC+ production quota, despite upward adjustment that has seen Nigeria’s production quota rise to 1.72mb/d (excluding condensates). In addition, capital expenditure investment in the oil and gas sector continues to lag below pre-pandemic levels, despite the passage of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).

    For the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Timipre Sylva, poor investment and the exit of oil majors are major issues affecting the country’s inability to meet the oil production quota. He added that the drive towards renewable energy by climate enthusiasts had discouraged funding for the sector.

    At a ministerial plenary session at the Ceraweek, in Houston, Texas, United States of America, Sylva, according to a statement by his Senior Adviser (Media and Communications) Horatius Egua, noted that the speed with which international oil companies and other investors were withdrawing investments in hydrocarbon exploitation had contributed significantly to Nigeria’s inability to meet OPEC targets.

    “Lack of investment in the oil and gas sector contributed to Nigeria’s inability to meet OPEC quota. We are not able to get the needed investments to develop the sector and that affected us. The rate at which investments were taken away was too fast,” he added. He also cited security challenges as another major factor that contributed to the lack of significant growth of the sector.

    The Managing Director, Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, Mele Kyari, blames the country’s inability to meet its OPEC quota on lack of funding. He said financing was badly needed to improve the country’s production capacity.

    According to him, following the decision to allow more oil in the market, Nigeria and other members of OPEC would face challenges to quickly pump more oil. “Even if OPEC members decide to pump more oil, it may not be very, very realisable as the financing needed for more development is lacking,” Kyari said in an interview with Bloomberg.

    Far from the position of Slyva and Kyari, other factors are said to be mitigating against the ability to meet the production target. One is the huge cost of restarting fields and pipeline vandalism.

    An economist and oil market analyst, Mayowa Sodipo, noted that the level of vandalism is very high such that oil firms like Agip, Shell and some other companies have suffered serious damages to their facilities, thereby limiting their ability to contribute to production as a result of the shutdowns that usually followed such attacks.

    “Unfortunately, when you experience a shutdown in operation, restarting is not straight forward, as restarting a facility cost money,” he said.

    Last year, for instance, a combined shortage of 1.62 million barrels was recorded at Qua Iboe terminal, with 200,000 barrels due to production shut-in arising from flare management and low well head pressure. Another  530,000 barrels were lost to shut-ins following tank top concerns, 650,000 barrels as a result of production cut-back as directed by the then Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) as well as a loss of 240,000 barrels due to a gas leak on one of the assets.

    This was followed by losses from the Forcados facility, which shed 200,000 barrels, 84,000 barrels, 30, 000 barrels and 80,000 barrels respectively on different days, with reasons ranging from leak repairs, tank top issues, a fire incident and declaration of a force majeure.

    Still, Forcados continued its shut-ins, shedding an additional 405,000 barrels of crude oil at the Uzere/Afisere/Kokori axis following a shutdown as a result of protests by community workers as well as a loss of 80, 000 barrels due to a fire incident.

    In the same vein, Anyala Madu shed 105,000 barrels, Bonny suffered total shut-ins of 335,000 barrels, Ugo Ocha lost 30,000, Okono’s shutdown led to loss of 96,000 barrels, while Sea Eagle lost 750,000 barrels.

     

    Implication

    The decline in oil output also depleted revenue accrued to the federation account amid zero remittances from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited despite soaring oil prices.

    Besides, with the inability to meet these allocated quotas, an increasingly huge gap between production increase on paper and actual growth in output now exist, which has made the market tighter than stakeholders had anticipated a few months ago.

     

    Challenge

    This is why stakeholders are worried that for a country that has failed to meet its production quota in more than one year, the new allocation may also be squandered opportunity to raise critically needed revenue for the country. Yet, stakeholders like Kayode Oyedele, an public analyst, warned that if the trend of declaration of force majure by some of the International Oil Companies (IoCs) persists this year as experienced previously, then the 1.830 million barrels allocation by OPEC+ to the country for the month of September will remain a charade.

  • ‘Renewable energy: Reduce use of high pollutants’

    ‘Renewable energy: Reduce use of high pollutants’

    The Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, has aligned with the leading proposal for countries and corporations to gradually reduce the use of high pollutants and, alternatively, use renewable energy.

    At a dinner organised by the Oil Producers Trade Section (OPTS), a sub-group of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), in Lagos, Osinbajo noted that unlike wealthier brother-countries, the developing world is faced with two, not one, crises – Climate Change and Extreme Poverty. He said there was a need to take into consideration, the peculiarities of African and developing countries when making a clear distinction between present reality and future possibilities of renewable energies.

    “African countries are the least emitters of Carbon today – with less than one per cent of cumulative CO2 emissions. We are the least emitters and not the worst emitters. Even if we tripled our emissions,” he said.

    The Vice President called on the OPTS as well as Nigerians to be ready to take quick and informed actions in the country’s interest. This, he said should be the geared in the direction of greater involvement in the crucial conversations to zero emissions; and getting involved in climate finance – especially the voluntary carbon markets.

    On the nation’s plan to reduce the use of high pollutants, Prof. Osinbajo remarked: “So far, our response plan has been the Energy Transition Plan- a comprehensive, data-driven and evidence-based plan to deal with the twin crises of climate change and energy poverty. The plan recognises the role that natural gas must play in the short term to facilitate the establishment of baseload energy capacity and address the nation’s clean cooking deficit in form of LPG,” he said.

    Meanwhile, irrespective of the country’s inability to meet its oil production quota allocation by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the OTPS- a sub-group of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), has said it accounts for producing 90 percent of the country’s crude oil output, including a significant volume to the domestic and export gas production and supply.

    This was the submission of the Chairman and Managing Director of Chevron Nigeria Limited, Mr. Rick Kennedy, at the dinner.  According to him, the OPTS member companies have over the over the last decade, also accounted for 40-60 per cent of government revenue and 85-95 per cent of export earnings. “Through direct and indirect employment of people, local contractors, and service providers, our member companies have continued to provide significant livelihood to Nigerians. Our members have continued to invest in individual and group skill development to support exploration and production activities and strengthen the supply chain. This is in addition to a strong social investment programme that spans Nigeria, with a focus on our host communities,” Kennedy, who also doubles as Chairman of the OPTS said.

    He noted that despite the challenges confronting the industry, there are opportunities for improvement and growth as they continue to work with the governments at all levels, including its commitment as a group to get the right policies for its people and for the country.

    “We have evolved as a group and have become partners with Nigeria in the development of a sector that is key to the nation’s economic growth. OPTS has evolved from an organisation initially dominated by international oil companies (IOCs) to an all-inclusive 29-member group, out of which 21 are indigenous and homegrown,” Kennedy said, noting that the body, which began modestly in 1962 with only three founding member companies- Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell, was formed in response to the burgeoning oil and gas sector following the discovery of oil six years earlier in 1956.

    The Executive Director, OPTS, Mr. Bunmi Toyobo, said: “we are grateful to so many people and firms who have made this remarkable journey of OPTS possible- from the three initial founding members of the Section in 1962, to the past Chairmen, Executive Committee members, Executive Directors of the OPTS, past Staff of the Secretariat and everyone who has contributed to what OPTS has become today in the Nigerian Oil and Gas industry.

  • Eroton confirms well fire, fingers vandals

    Eroton confirms well fire, fingers vandals

    Eroton Exploration & Production Company Limited has confirmed an uncontrolled flow of hydrocarbons with wildfire into the environment.

    It said the incident occurred in wells AKOS004L/S and AKOS014L/S of the Akaso field and was observed by members of the community on October 1, 2022.

    AKOS004 was completed as a dual string well and came on stream in May 1994.

    It was subsequently shut-in December 2020 for well integrity repairs.

    AKOS014L/S on the other hand came on stream in 2005 and was also completed as a dual string which was quit in August 2018, and subsequently followed by vandalization of the wellhead accessories by third-parties.

    A statement by the company’s spokesman Mercy Max-Ebibai, explained: “These wells were observed to be releasing uncontrolled flow of hydrocarbon into the environment with wildfire due to the suspected compromise and vandalization of XMAS Tree containment valves of the wellheads, presumed to be from illegal bunkering activities.”

    Read Also: Fire ravages Eroton’s oil field in Rivers

    ‘’This is the fourth incident of confirmed and suspected sabotage and vandalism in the last three months experienced by Eroton Exploration and Production company Limited and it is snowballing into an existential treat to the company.

    “The AKOS004L/S and AKOS014L/S flow was discovered to be coming out from the short string flow arm of both wells. A cursory look at the wells from a distance show the absence of some wellhead valves on the body of the XMAS TREE.”

    She further confirmed that Eroton had duly informed the requisite regulators including NUPRC, RSMEnv, NOSDRA and their host community through the designated Cluster Board of the incident and the Eroton Emergency Response Team have been working around the clock to abate the situation.

  • Road to achieving zero-emission

    Road to achieving zero-emission

    Nigeria is not excluded from the pursuit of carbon neutrality, being one of the 195 nations that are party to the United Nations Paris Agreement – a pact that seeks to combat climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, the country has undertaken to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 20 per cent between now and 2030 and to attain net-zero emissions by 2060. MUYIWA LUCAS writes.

    The rate at which Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) price increases is assuming a phenomenal dimension. This is despite the volume of proven natural gas reserves which the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) said stood at 209.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf) as at January 1, 2022.

    Latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate a 101 per cent rise in cooking gas price. According to the data, the average price of five kilogrammes cooking gas increased from N4,397.68 in July to N4,456.56 in August. It noted that the price in August indicated a 1.34 per cent increase on a month-on-month basis from what obtained in July.

    “On a year-on-year basis, the August 2022 price was a 101.17 per cent increase over the price of N2,215.33 paid for the same volume of gas in August 2021,’’ it stated. The report added that Taraba recorded the highest average price of N4,925.44, for 5kg cooking gas, followed by Adamawa where it cost N4,920, and Lagos State where it sold for N4,782.50. It stated also that Katsina State recorded the lowest price of N4,020 in August, followed by Ogun and Yobe at N4,057.14 and N4,078.46, respectively.

    Analysis by geopolitical zones showed that the North-Central recorded the highest average retail price of N4,615.95 for 5kg cooking gas, followed by the North-East at N4,548.03. The North-West recorded the lowest retail price at N4,285.51.

    The NBS reported also that the average retail price of 12.5kg cooking gas increased to 9,899.34 in August 2022 from N9,824.07 in July, representing a 0.77 per cent month-on-month increase.

    “On a year-on-year basis, the price rose by 119.26 per cent from N4,514.82 in August 2021,’’ it stated. The report added that the highest retail price was recorded in Ebonyi at N11,225 for 12.5kg, followed by Cross River at N10,982.14 and Delta at N10,965.42. The lowest average price was recorded in Katsina State at N8,150, followed by Yobe and Taraba at N8,212.63 and N8,886.30, respectively.

    But given the volume of gas reserves in the country, would it not have been right if gas is sold at a more reduced rate? Experts in the sector hold divergent views on this. For instance, the Chairman of Nigeria Gas Association (NGA) Ed Ubong, agreed that the country may be sitting on a large reserve of gas, but wondered what her production capacity of same is. “Nigeria is sitting on a large, huge resource base of gas, but how much gas are we producing? We are a top ten country when we talk of what we have but when you talk of what we are actually producing we begin to sit back, we are in the top 20 range. Gas only accounts for five per cent of Africa energy mix,” he said.

    Globally, the issue of having cheap natural gas may have become a thing of the past. According to a report by Oilprice.com, the era of cheap natural gas might be gone for good.  At some point, the U.S. natural gas futures climbed to a 31-month high of 4.16/MMBtu, especially occasioned by forecasts for hotter weather and soaring global gas prices ensuring that U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will remain at record highs. It is being projected that average gas demand, including exports.

    Renewable energy

    The continued rise in gas price is not unconnected with the race for cleaner energy. It is therefore not surprising that the net-zero carbon emissions target of world leaders is accelerating the global shift away from hydrocarbon-based energy sources and towards renewables. This is why several governments are making sustainable investments a strategic thrust including using policies and incentives to drive innovation in renewable energy technologies.

    Agusto & Co, a research firm in Nigeria and Sub-Saharan Africa, is of the view that the world’s capacity to generate electricity from solar panels, wind turbines, and other renewables will grow significantly in the next few years. This is why it noted that the gas regime is closely tied to the drive for renewable energy. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), renewables will account for about 95 percent of the increase in worldwide power capacity by 2026, with solar photovoltaics (PV) alone accounting for more than half of the anticipated expansion. In 2022, a projected $472 billion will be invested in renewable energy, 44 percent more than in 2017, when $326 billion was spent.

    Which way to go?

    A research report by the firm revealed that the country’s current energy mix is heavily skewed towards gas, with 23 thermal plants contributing 76 percent of the total installed generating capacity. It however noted that years of underinvestment in the domestic gas market as a result of price controls, regulatory obstacles and pipeline vandalism have put question marks on the commercial viability of gas supply to the power sector. Agusto & Co estimates that renewable energy sources (such as wind and solar) in the country, which are frequently proposed as alternatives to gas, are still in their infancy and are not commercially viable on a sufficient scale to diversify the country’s energy mix.

    However, researchers at the firm are of the opinion that Nigeria’s aspirations are rather lofty considering that the country is still grappling with inadequate electricity supply from the national grid as unmet demand is estimated at approximately 20,000 megawatts (MW). With rapid industrialisation, population and income growth, this supply gap is expected to widen. The challenges confronting the Nigerian power sector are well documented, over-laboured and cut across the industry’s entire value chain. They were summarised by a World Bank study  in 2020 where it was revealed that about 47 percent of Nigerians lack access to grid electricity and those who do have access, face regular power outages.

    Given its abundant and diverse natural resources, Nigeria, according to Augusto & Co report, is capable of producing significant amounts of clean and renewable energy (particularly solar energy). This is because the country is located within a high sunshine belt and has significant solar energy potential as a result.

    The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), reckons that the average annual daily sunshine in Africa’s largest economy is 6.25 hours. Nigeria’s Northern region enjoys average solar radiation of about 25.2MJ/m2 (megajoule/square meter) per day, with an average of 12.6MJ/m2 in coastal areas. Wind speeds ranging between 2.5m/s and 6.5m/s  in the Northern region of Nigeria, owing to the large expanse of dry land, also present opportunities to generate wind power, while biomass remains a potential and untapped source of bio-energy given the amount of waste produced.

    While grid-connected electricity supply remains the cheapest source of power in Nigeria, it is not always economically efficient to construct gas pipelines and/or transmission cables to some remote villages with very little demand for electricity. Agusto & Co believes that this underscores the need to expand the current energy mix to include renewables. Renewable energy plants can be constructed in remote areas as an alternative to running several kilometres of transmission cables, which are subject to vandalism. The poor and erratic power supply from the national grid also provides opportunities for small-scale renewable projects for individual households.

    Also, a decentralised energy production system is pertinent to address the transmission and distribution challenges plaguing the Nigerian power sector, which is provided by the use of solar energy. Nigeria’s market for electrification is ripe, with an estimated 215 million  people and an annual population growth rate of three percent. Given the appropriate regulatory support, Agusto & Co forecasts significant investment in renewables.

    Stakeholders agreed that renewable energy is the fastest-growing energy source globally and many industry experts consider it to be the energy for the future with projections of as much as 85 per cent of global power output coming from renewables (mostly solar and wind) by 2050.

    This is why the research firm expects that with growing awareness of climate change and environmental sustainability, more Nigerian organisations would opt for renewables, driving their increased adoption – particularly solar energy – in keeping with the global trend. This would place the country on track to accomplish its goal of increasing energy output sufficiently to overcome the domestic power supply shortfall and putting it on a solid route to meeting its international commitment to achieve zero emissions by 2060.

  • JODI: 1.1 mbpd drop in global oil demand

    JODI: 1.1 mbpd drop in global oil demand

    Global oil demand fell counter-seasonally in July by approximately 1.1 million barrels per day (mbpd), driven by declines in Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Europe, India, China, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia, new data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) shows.

    The drop sits in contrast to the five-year average for the month of July, excluding the pandemic years of 2020-2021, which shows demand rising seasonally by an average of 350,000 bpd.

    Global crude oil production increased by about 50000 bpd in July, the JODI update shows. The July changes brought both crude oil production and demand to 98 percent of pre-pandemic levels.

    The data also showed that Russian gas production declined for a fourth consecutive month and was more than 34 percent below March levels.

    The JODI oil and gas databases were updated on Monday with 51 countries reporting data for the latest month of July 2022. The July data submissions account for more than 70 percent of global oil demand and 55 per cent of global crude production. Notably, this month’s update did not include oil data for Russia.

    Product inventories grew by 63 mb – more than three times the average seasonal increase. Crude inventories increased counter-seasonally by 9 million barrels. Together, global crude and product inventories stood nearly 438 million barrels below the five-year average.

    Highlights for June oil data are:

    Saudi Arabia

    Crude production rose by 169 kbpd to 10.82 mbpd; Crude exports grew by 188 kbpd to 7.38 mbpd – a 27-month high; Product exports fell by 170 kbpd to 1.43 mbpd; demand fell counter-seasonally by 192 kbpd – the first monthly decline since February; direct burn of crude oil fell by 26 kbpd to 661 kbpd in July; crude inventories grew by 211 kb to 142.1 mb.

     China

    Demand fell by 191 kbpd in July and was 655 kbpd below year-ago levels. However, it was still 135 kbpd above July 2019 levels; Crude imports rose by 74 kbpd in July but were down 924 kbpd from year-ago levels; total product exports increased by 21 kbpd in July, but they were 562 kbpd below July 2019 levels.

    United States

    Crude oil inventories fell by 14.3 mb in July and are now at their lowest level since 2003; total product inventories increased by 52.9 mb to 676.2 mb.

    Highlights for June natural gas data include: Natural gas demand was at 104 percent of year-ago levels while production was at 96 percent of 2021 levels.

    Russian gas production declined for a fourth consecutive month and is down 34 percent from March levels. EU+UK gas consumption was at a five-year seasonal low in July, while LNG imports have more than doubled from a year ago. The group’s inventories increased by 3.9 bcm – less than the seasonal average build of 9.7 bcm – to stand 63 percent full at the end of July.

    Global LNG exports declined slightly in July and were in line with year-ago levels. Total gas inventories increased by 15.5 billion cubic metre (bcm) and stood 15.9 bcm below the five-year average.

  • NUEE seeks power sector privatisation reversal

    NUEE seeks power sector privatisation reversal

    The National Union of Electricity Employees (NUEE) has urged the Federal Government to reverse the privatisation of the nation’s power sector, describing new owners of the privatised companies as ‘hustlers’ and ‘hawks’ that have contributed poorly to the power sector.

    The body also accused the new owners of deceiving the Federal Government into paying N2 trillion subvention, insisting that they have continued to impoverish Nigerians, leaving the country pillaged.

    They claimed that despite recognisable improvements in the wheeling capacity of the Transmission Company of Nigeria, (TCN) of 7,000 megawatts, the generation output has dwindled below 5,000 megawatts.

    They pointed at the activities of the new owners as part of reasons the power sector has almost gone comatose and the impoverishment of the average worker in the sector.

    The Zonal Organising Secretary (Liaison), Kolade Ayodele, at a media parley said Nigerians should also be worried even as electricity tariffs continue to rise without commiserate service delivery.

    He said: “Since the privatisation of Nigeria’s power sector in October 2013, electricity workers under the age of the National Union of Electricity Employees have been in the fore-front of speaking out on behalf of Nigerians.

    “It is an undeniable truth that the Power Sector privatisation has not added value to the lives of the ordinary Nigerians. The entire exercise which could be described as a charade has not brought any meaningful impact/improvement of the sector, rather, it has led the nation to a huge setback.

    “The infrastructural development by the New Business Owners in the Power Sector has almost gone comatose while the socio-economic status of the average worker in the sector has continued to decline amidst prevailing harsh economic conditions. The same equipment inherited from Pre-Privatisation have remained what drives the Sector as there are no visible attempts by the Generation Companies (GenCos) and Distribution Companies (DisCos) to upgrade and expand their capacities/networks.

    “Nigerians were deceived into believing that the ‘Harvestors’ had the Financial/Technical muscles to improve power generation and distribution to Nigerians.

    Can Nigerians be told today that this purpose has been achieved? The answer was echoed in the print/electronic media by members of the National Assembly who even called for the total reversal of the entire process.

    “Despite improvement in the wheeling capacity of the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), which is still Federal Government owned to over 7,000MW, the generation output has been dwindling below 5,000MW.

    He added: “Alas!, the ‘Hustlers’ who deceived the Federal Government into paying almost N2 trillion subvention to the owners of the new companies since privatisation; are being used to call the union names in order to exploit Nigerians and sustain the comatose situation. Their mission is simply to call a dog a bad name in order to hang it while they keep smiling to the banks.

    “The same ‘Hawks’ , who were gifted the DisCos and GenCos have sharpened their propaganda machinery through these same Hustlers that mid-wived the privatisation of the power sector just to distract/hoodwink Nigerians from knowing the real issues.

    “Almost nine years of power privatisation, the entitlements of some of the workers of the defunct PHCN have not been paid as they suffer untold hardship while some have been sent to early grave due to frustration and lack of fund to attend to health challenges after being forced out of service under the guise of privatisation.

    “Similarly, the precarious work conditions have imposed hardship on existing employees in the sector as the generation companies have refused to sign Conditions of Service guiding employer/employee relations. Lack of workplace democracy, poor remuneration, lack of welfare packages coupled with being denied their fundamental Constitutional rights to belong/join the union. They have simply become ‘glorified modern day slave camps’.

    “Electricity tariff has continued to rise without making prepaid meters available to Nigerians despite the Federal Government’s directive to the Nigeria Electricity Regulatory Commission and the DisCos.

    “We are prepared to use our labour and sweat to liberate the sector and the country from the clutches of these “Hustlers’ in the power sector.”

  • Volatility: What does the future hold for fuels market?

    Volatility: What does the future hold for fuels market?

    A report by S & P Global and the International Energy Forum indicates that global oil refining capacity dropped for the first time in 20 years two years ago and, again, last year, exacerbating tight markets and volatile prices for fuels such as petrol and diesel. MUYIWA LUCAS examines the report.

    Notwithstanding the march to new forms of energy, fossil fuels can still not be pushed aside. This position by some stakeholders has further accentuated the position of research reports conducted by renowned bodies and firms.

    According to the International Energy Forum (IEF) and S&P Global, the Oil Refining Industry Insights report shows that global fuel markets are expected to stay tight for years as new capacity takes time to ramp-up and investments are muted by demand outlooks that show global petroleum demand plateauing.

    “I am concerned that investors are holding back from new refinery investments based on decarbonisation forecasts that may not be borne out in reality,” said IEF Secretary-General Joseph McMonigle.

    In the short and medium-terms, the balance for global fuel markets would be fragile, underscoring the need to maintain robust inventories and contingency plans to deal with supply disruptions, the report finds.

    “The global refining industry is stretched, so unexpected disruptions have a disproportionate effect on prices. Governments urgently need to review their contingency plans to ensure they can cope with the inevitable and I believe more investment will be needed,” Mr. McMonigle said.

    A record 3.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude distillation capacity closed between 2020 and mid-2022 as the pandemic weakened margins, accelerated refinery closures, and encouraged the conversion of refineries to biofuels or distribution terminals, the report says.

    Refining margins ballooned earlier this year to a record $35-50 per barrel versus a more normal $10 a barrel. The report finds that Russia and China both have available refining capacity, but sanctions limit Russia’s exports and domestic policies limit China’s.

    Sanctions and embargos have displaced nearly three mbpd of Russian products that are not easily rerouted, and Chinese exports are down 30 percent from 2019 levels as the government has prioritised domestic markets.

    More than two mbpd in new refining capacity is scheduled to come online by the end of next year, but history shows delays and operational challenges are to be expected.

    Looking to the medium term outlook, the report finds significant uncertainty over future demand for conventional refining capacity. Despite high margins, investors are reluctant to commit to new projects because the transition to electric vehicles could make them stranded assets.

    Passenger electric vehicle sales are forecast in various scenarios to rise sharply as policy support continues, costs decline, and more models come to market. Plug-in vehicle sales are forecast to grow from 6.6 million in 2021 to 35.7 in 2030. This would replace four mbpd of gasoline and diesel demand by the end of the decade, and cause hydrocarbon fuels’ share of the transport market to plateau by 2028, the report says.

    Energy transitions and decarbonisation policies mean the downstream sector will need to reduce yields of gasoline and diesel and increase petrochemicals, the report finds. So, investors are looking beyond the use cases for how refineries can be repurposed for the transition.

    Corroborating the IEF and S&P Global report, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its September Monthly Oil Market Report confirmed that refining margins declined.

    OPEC said: “Refinery margins showed diverging trends in August. In the US Gulf Coast (USGC), margins declined moderately, with weakness mainly at the top of the barrel. This was on the back of weaker gasoline domestic consumption which exhibited signs of a slowdown amid concerns over high inflation, economic growth and the approaching end of the driving season.

    “In contrast, refinery margins in Europe and Asia reversed trend, following the steep losses witnessed in July. This was mainly reflective of a continued decline in diesel availability, as high operational costs for European refiners due to strong natural gas prices weighed on diesel production.

    “In Asia, strong diesel consumption in India and China, and open arbitrage for diesel flows from Asia to Europe, led to significant regional market support that resulted in higher refining gains. Over the month, global refinery runs slightly extended the upward trend, in line with expected seasonality, despite significant unplanned US refinery outages.”

    Although diesel prices eased a little in the past few days as a result of the drop in the global price of crude, however, hopes of getting to see lower diesel prices or drop in inflation rate anytime soon may end in disappointment as global fuel markets are expected to stay tight for some years to come.

    Indeed, new refinery start-ups remain delayed by issues related to supply chains, labour, and capital. Some of such refineries include 615 kb/d Al Zour refinery in Kuwait and 650,000b/d Dangote refinery in Nigeria.

    There are concerns that many developing economies may be unable to bear the shock from rising energy prices, therefore spiking inflation further. Many oil firms and analysts have projected a volatile outlook for oil prices.

    Reduced refining capacity means that fuel demand, such as for petrol and diesel, cannot be met by refiners regardless of whether crude supplies increase, even as spare capacity is also running low because of a lack of investment in exploration and production.

    For Nigeria, which is dependent on importation for refined fuels, the prevailing exchange rate crisis and revenue challenges are putting a strain on fuel prices and operating expenses of many firms.

    Locally, governments and businesses are beginning to adjust expectations for the fiscal year, considering that energy prices will remain elevated alongside higher inflation levels, which are expected to affect consumer spending and production costs. At over N750 per litre, there are concerns that another spike in oil prices will spell doom for those dependent on diesel.

    While the cost of PMS is still moderately tolerable because of the subsidy regime that is still being provided by the government, the federal government has denied plans to subsidise the price of diesel, considering the present high fiscal deficit in its account.

    Fuel markets are expected to remain tight for years to come as new capacity scheduled to come online will take time to ramp up. More than two million bpd in net capacity is scheduled to come online by the end of next year, but history shows delays and operational challenges could stall progress, the IEF report noted.

    “The expectation that the energy transition could make refineries stranded assets has deterred investment. The last major greenfield fuel refineries are likely FID and will come onstream in the next few years,” the authors of the report stated.

    An earlier statistical review of world energy by BP, showed that global coal-fired electricity generators are producing more power than ever before in response to booming electricity demand after the pandemic and the surging price of gas following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, the price of gas and diesel is pushing the world to other alternatives. Members of the Organised Private Sector (OPS) stated that the cost of operation and production have gone up from between 30 and 100 per cent as a result of the exchange rate and energy crisis.

    Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, stated that high inflation and energy costs continue to take a toll on businesses in the forms of increased production costs, elevated operating costs across sectors, declined profit margins, slump in turnover and sales and risk in business sustainability in many segments of the l economy.

  • CORAN seeks intervention fund

    CORAN seeks intervention fund

    The Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) has appealed to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to create a crude refinery intervention fund  similar to that of Agricultural Credit Fund or the Pharmaceutical Fund domiciled at the apex bank to drive their operations.

    CORAN stated this when its Board of Trustees (BoT) led by its Chairman, Emmanuel Iheanacho, visited the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) in Abuja.

    The meeting, chaired by the NMDPRA’s Executive Director, Hydrocarbons Processing Plants, Installation and Transportation Infrastructure (HPPITI), Mr. Francis  Ogaree, was in furtherance of the body’s interaction with the industry top regulators.

    CORAN Secretary, Olusegun Ilori, appealed to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, NMDPRA and Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) to engage with the licensed modular refineries to develop an appropriate commercial model that would guarantee reliable feedstock.

    Besides, CORAN also stated that NMDPRA’s modular refinery licence’s renewal fee should be reduced or given a 50 per cent waiver.  CORAN pleaded that NMDPRA should ensure that incentives that were given to Dangote Refinery should also be extended to them.

    The association said NNPCL should take equity or grant loans to modular refineries via the provision of reformer/other requirement units to e nsure adequate production of PMS based on agreed offtake conditions.  Ogaree assured the visistors of President Muhammadu Buhari’s commitment to the functionality of more refineries.  He said a committee would be set up to look into the demands. He advised the body to work with them.

  • 17 get Egbin Power scholarship

    17 get Egbin Power scholarship

    Egbin Power Plc has  awarded scholarships to 17 indigent students drawn from the three communities of Ipakan, Ijede and Egbin.

    The students were the finalists from the over 200 students who participated in the programme.

    At the award ceremony, the Head, Support Services, Egbin Power Plc, Kayode Ayeni, said: “Egbin Power Plc started this scholarship programme since 2015 for indigent students. Since then, it has been one good news after another. Some of the past beneficiaries are in the universities.

    “For this year’s edition, over 200 students participated in the keenly contested process and these students have distinguished themselves by scaling through the hurdles and we are presenting the scholarship to them.

    “The scholarship covers schooling costs, including tuition, textbooks, school uniforms and each of them is also going home with an educational tablet. In addition, the overall best, 10 year-old Ridwanullahi Sharafa, is going home with a brand new laptop.

    “The programme is scheduled in a way that participants benefited. The over 200 that took part at the pre-test stage went home with educational materials and goodie bags, while the 65 that were selected for the bootcamp were also given school materials, including bags, puzzle games, shirts and writing materials.”

    Ayeni continued: “As a responsible corporate organisation, we know that the peaceful operations we enjoy is due to the support and collaboration of the host communities and we shall continue to do more to lubricate the wheel of good relationship” he said.

    The Programme Coordinator, Mr. Olufemi Ayandokun, said this year’s theme is centred on reshaping the future of the youngsters, who are the future leaders of the nation.

    “All of the activities at the bootcamp were designed with the goal of transforming the participants’ mindsets and preparing them to become unstoppable champions. Egbin Power is intentional about changing lives and raising pacesetters” he said.

    Sharafa, who doubles as the President of the scholarship class, said: “The journey started in April, last year. I will like to thank Egbin Power Plc for its commitment towards our development. I will also like to appreciate the scholarship board for their efforts at the bootcamp.’’