Three prominent policy analysts and energy-sector experts have praised the leadership of Gbenga Komolafe, Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), following new records showing the commission generated N8.79 trillion to the Federation Account between January and October 2025.
FAAC records from the November 2025 meeting revealed that NUPRC remitted N873.10 billion in October alone, a 17.67 per cent rise from September’s N741.99 billion, following stronger royalty enforcement, enhanced data reconciliation and improved monitoring of upstream operations.
The documents also showed over N1.02 trillion in NNPC Joint Venture and Production Sharing Contract royalty receivables, as well as N835.69 billion from Project Gazelle.
The commission additionally confirmed that, after presidential approval to “nil off” inherited NNPC arrears as of 31 December 2024, it cleared $1.42 billion and N5.57 trillion in legacy obligations.
Despite these gains, October’s collections amounted to 72.47 per cent of the N1.204 trillion monthly budget, reflecting the ongoing effects of low output, infrastructure constraints, crude theft, and global price movements.
The commission also recorded strong performances across several revenue lines, including N807.08 billion in oil and gas royalties, a 65 per cent rise in rental income, and gas flare penalties surpassing budgeted targets at 105.52 per cent.
Dr. Ifeanyi Okonkwo, public affairs analyst and former adviser at the National Assembly, said the latest revenue figures reflect a deliberate tightening of administrative and fiscal controls at the commission.
“What these numbers tell us is that the NUPRC under Komolafe has finally embraced the discipline that the upstream sector has lacked for years,” he said.
“There is now a clear commitment to transparency, monthly reconciliation and the closure of historical leakages. The fact that the commission is sustaining high remittances despite fluctuating production shows that the regulator is no longer timid or reactive. It is behaving like a regulator that understands the weight of its mandate and is determined to enforce it.”
Energy economist, Dr. Hauwa Ibrahim, described the performance as a reassuring signal in a difficult year for the global oil market.
“The October numbers demonstrate that even within a constrained production environment, a disciplined regulatory framework can still deliver strong outcomes for the federation,” she said.
“What we are seeing is the early emergence of structural stability in the upstream sector, driven by firmer compliance systems and a more assertive regulatory posture. Yes, the figures still reflect the fragility of the sector, particularly in production volumes, but when a regulator provides clarity, consistency and predictable enforcement, the entire value chain becomes more resilient. That is the direction NUPRC is now moving toward.”
Petroleum engineer, Mike Osamudiamen, said the commission’s handling of inherited NNPC indebtedness marks one of the most consequential interventions in the industry this year.
“For decades, Nigeria’s upstream fiscal environment has been muddied by unresolved obligations, disputed receivables and opaque accounting practices,” he said.
“By bringing long-delayed clarity to the books and writing off obligations that were legally extinguished, Komolafe has restored credibility to the federation’s financial records. This certainty is essential not just for government planning but for operators, investors and auditors who rely on accurate data. What is needed now is sustained vigilance, tighter monitoring of production volumes, accurate measurement systems and uncompromising royalty compliance, because that is how this momentum will be protected.”
The experts concluded that the performance reflects a regulator that is increasingly assertive, disciplined and aligned with the vision of the Petroleum Industry Act, with Komolafe’s leadership playing a central role in the turnaround.
