The Nation Newspaper

Category: Columnists

  • Nipco: The FCCPC magic

    Nipco: The FCCPC magic

    It took only one phone call and the dispute was resolved.  The intervention of the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) did the magic, following my complaint. Minutes after lodging the complaint, my phone rang and the caller wanted a name of any official of Nipco Gas Station at Arepo, Ogun State, which I accused of not refunding my N20000, following a failed POS (point of sale) transaction for  which I was debited and the firm credited. In no time I was talking with the Nipco man. That was last Thursday. We agreed to meet the next day.

    Read Also: FG to equip 12 universities with high-fibre internet, 24-hour electricity

    We met and the matter was resolved. Just like that! He turned out to be an official with good human relations.  ‘People talked to people and people understood’, as we used to say in the political reporting circuit between 1992 and 1993. I commended the guy’s human touch. No matter how socially irresponsible an organisation may be, having the right man in place can make a world of difference.

  • Jonathan’s jibe

    Jonathan’s jibe

    Few days ago, former President Goodluck Jonathan stylishly took a swipe at the integrity of the present National Assembly. He was speaking at the champions of local content dinner in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State. He spoke of how the Local Content Act came into being and the role of the National Assembly in enacting the law. According to him, this happened when the “National Assembly was National Assembly”, a jibe at the present National Assembly. His audience roared in laughter as it knew the butt of his sarcasm. Jonathan signed the law in 2010 as acting president

    Read Also: Senate passes N1.8trn 2025 FCT budget

    The National Assembly in session then, if my memory serves me right, was led by Senator David Mark. Was that really a National Assembly? What makes Jonathan to be over the moon over it? Politics, simply politics.

  • Cynics build no country

    Cynics build no country

    They smelled blood and gathered like hyenas. Not in the savannahs of Sambisa or the dry grasslands of Konduga, but in the digital amphitheatre of Nigeria’s public opinion: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, the press, and WhatsApp.

    At the centre of this frenzy was Professor Ishaq Oloyede, the Registrar of the Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board (JAMB). A technical glitch during the 2025 Unified Tertiary Matriculation Examination led to irregularities in the scores of thousands of candidates. It was later discovered that over 20 suspects, including some school proprietors, had hacked into JAMB’s server to fraudulently boost the scores of “special” candidates, charging fees ranging from N700,000 to N2 million.

    The culprits reportedly infiltrated the national exam board, corrupted the computer-based testing system, and sullied the hopes of thousands of candidates. Yet, the national outrage did not pivot when this truth emerged. It simply fizzled.

    Oloyede cried, perhaps out of genuine remorse or frustration, but Nigerians were merciless. They called for his dismissal, demanding his head on a pike of shame, despite his peerless exploits as JAMB registrar. A teenager, reportedly distraught by his UTME results, took his own life, further aggravating the rage of a populace milking the tragedy for all its worth. May Almighty God comfort the family of the deceased. No doubt, the teenager’s death was avoidable and heartbreaking.

    But the glitch, however lamentable, was not unprecedented. In 2017, the Educational Testing Service (ETS) in the United States had to cancel thousands of Graduate Record Examination (GRE) results due to server breaches. Similar mishaps have occurred in the UK’s A-Level exams. Technology fails. Systems collapse. But only in Nigeria do we drag a man to the digital square and skin him in public view, while conveniently ignoring the syndicates who orchestrated the sabotage. The Department of State Security  (DSS) must eventually make public the identities of the culprits, at least, to silence the drone of scepticism trailing the news of their arrest.

    This is Nigeria, where the appetite for bad news has morphed into a national delicacy. It is no longer mere pessimism; it is schadenfreude in full bloom. An emotional disfigurement where citizens derive pleasure from the collapse of their own public institutions.

    When news broke that Nigeria had quietly repaid its loan to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), one would expect relief. Instead, the public discourse quickly mutated into denial and deflection. Fact was contorted into fiction as influential voices, including supposed intellectuals, journalists, and opposition politicians, spread the falsehood that Nigeria still owed the IMF.  Official documents from the Ministry of Finance and the Debt Management Office confirmed the debt repayment, yet the people preferred the lie because it was juicier.

    Why? Because many Nigerians, particularly the vocal digital elite, suffer from a curious affliction: a longing to see Nigeria fail if it means the politicians they hate are discredited in the process. This dubious disillusionment and selective outrage are weaponised along party lines. We reserve our pitchforks for the ruling class only when our political enemies are in power. The revolutionaries of 2023, it turns out, are now the cheerleaders of chaos in 2025. Patriots by day, partisans by night.

    Consider, too, the more recent uproar about a supposed $21 billion loan by President Bola Tinubu. Social media buzzed with fury as influencers, commentators, and news media bemoaned a purported bid by the president to plunge Nigeria into a $21 billion debt. And yet, once again, the truth was sacrificed on the altar of sensation.

    The $21 billion figure is not an actual loan, but the aggregate borrowing ceiling outlined in Nigeria’s Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) for both federal and state governments over the next three years. In reality, only $1.23 billion can be borrowed in 2025, and that figure includes borrowing by all 36 states and the Federal Government, across every geopolitical zone. But Nigerians did not care to check. They shared the headlines, forwarded the falsehoods, and relished the chaos.

    Read Also: Senate passes N1.8trn 2025 FCT budget

    Nigerians do not read. Most would rather not read the MTEF, the Appropriation Act, or even official communiqués.  Instead, they rely on emotionally charged interpretations from partisan sources. We embrace anti-Nigerian narratives because they fit the tragic scripts we have already written in our minds. We do not wait to verify; we prefer to vilify. Shall we care to get informed, at least?

    The true crisis is not technological, fiscal, or political. It is emotional. Nigerians are caught in a destructive sentimental loop, forever swinging between hope and despair. But rather than seek healing, we find solace in cynicism. We make bonfires of bad news, and subconsciously pray for collapse, that we might be vindicated in our pessimism.

    This culture of cynicism is born of suffering and suspicion. Decades of misrule, corruption and failed promises have conditioned us to believe that nothing good can come from Nigeria. And when something good does come, like debt repayment or a public official taking responsibility, we dismiss it as propaganda or performance. We are allergic to good news because it disrupts our grievance narratives.

    Why did Nigerians go silent after the arrest of 20 hackers who compromised JAMB’s systems? Why are we not celebrating the efficiency of the DSS and Police in apprehending the criminals who tried to discredit a national institution? Why are we louder in condemnation than we are in commendation?

    The answer is disquieting. We do not want redemption. We want revenge; revenge on a state that failed us and a leadership that dashed our dreams. But revenge, when misdirected, becomes self-immolation. We are burning the house because we were denied a room.

    And so, the same voices that mocked Oloyede’s tears now rustle silence as JAMB’s attackers are exposed. The same timelines that trended #JAMBFailedUs are now eerily quiet in the face of vindication. The hyenas have fed, and now they slink away into the shadows, waiting for the next wound to lick.

    To stem the tide of cynicism, Nigeria’s leadership must govern more humanely and communicate better. Perception is power. The government must establish a National Information Literacy Campaign comprising a coalition of ministries, media houses, and civil society tasked to teach citizens how to verify information, read official documents, and engage responsibly on social media.

    There is a need to create a Unified Government Fact-check Portal, a centralised platform where Nigerians can verify breaking news, track ongoing investigations, and access documents like the MTEF, Appropriation Acts, and debt records in simple, digestible formats.

    We must incentivise reading and data literacy via relatable channels like entertainment, gamification, and social media, to encourage understanding of public documents and policy summaries.

    When a public servant acts with honesty or when institutions self-correct, as JAMB did with its resit examination, the government and media must celebrate these actions with the same intensity we condemn failure. We must teach Nigeria to hear the quiet footsteps of integrity alongside the crash of corruption.

    The state must close the emotional distance between itself and the citizenry. Only then will Nigerians begin to see it as a trustee, not a tormentor. Every democracy is fragile, but its greatest strength lies in the people. If Nigerians lose faith in the country, no textbook reform will suffice.

    It’s about time we confronted our biases and cynicism, and ask: Do we want a better country, or do we just want our preferred side to win?

  • Insert Life Skills in curriculum; Security; Rangers

    Insert Life Skills in curriculum; Security; Rangers

    (Education Continued)

    In Educare Trust, we addressed over 50 socially relevant life-skill topics neglected by the ancient RRR-Reading, Writing, Arithmetic school curriculum. Today, each of those topics has NGOs dedicated to its dissemination. Such topics include Abortion, Activities, AIDS, Abuse, Alcohol, Athletics, Art,   Boredom, Bullying, Budgeting Co-Curricular Activities, Career Choice, Corruption, Corporal Punishment Injuries, Crash Helmet/ Safety Belt Use, Creativity, Cultism, Diary Keeping, Data Base, Democracy, Development, Drug Abuse,  Education, Entrepreneurship, Exhibition, Classroom Content, Care, Carelessness, Concern, Criticism, Exercise, Failure, Feedback, Finances, Friends, Friendly Learning, Environment, Intelligent Board Games, Giving/Taking, Guidance, Holi-School, Idleness, Instruments,  Language, Leadership, Library, Meet-The-Expert, Mental Health, Mentorship, Music,  Olaudah Equiano, Physical Health, Partnerships, Poetry, Prose, Posters, Photography, Reading, Recognition, Research, Quiz, Reward & Award, Self-Appraisal, Sign Language, Social Vices, Sports, Success,  Sex, Talent Hunt, Think-Tank, Toilets, University Assess,  Volunteerism, Values,  Wall Charts, Youth Centres. Reader…please add your own.

    All these topics are essential for students’ ‘Total Rounded Education’ and must be taught ‘in curriculum’ to Nigerian students and their counterparts in Africa and beyond. But they are not taught to most of our Nigerian 30+m primary school and almost 14m secondary school students in approximately 81,520 primary and 23,550 secondary schools [Source: Google search] unless an NGO shows up at the school.

    NGO access to the school system is haphazard, potluck and not sustainable without parental, private sector and sometimes international funding and volunteerism through NGOs. Probably less than 1% of schools have, at best, epileptic access to one NGO.  This does not include the ‘co-curricular needs’ of approximately 2.1m under and postgraduates in Nigeria’s 270 or so universities. Our students need more than sporadic NGO visits to haphazardly ‘perhaps’ learn ‘Essential Life Skills.’

     NGOs cannot be a substitute for government-led archaic ‘Education Policies and Practice.’ Leaving this huge aspect of ‘The Total Education of the Complete Nigerian Student’ to NGOs has also consistently failed with consequent ill-prepared ‘poor life skilled Nigerian students’ in schools not reached by NGOs.

    FOR EXAMPLE, HOW MUCH ‘CULT, DRUG, SICKLE CELL, & RESPECT FOR THE FEMALE EDUCATION IS IN THE CURRICULUM OR EVEN MENTIONED IN SCHOOLS IN A NIGERIA RIDDLED BY A HUGE CULTISM, DRUG, SICKLE CELL, VIOLENCE AND FEMALE ABUSE EPIDEMIC AMONG YOUTH? SCHOOL MUST BE WHERE VALUES ARE TAUGHT AND FIRST PRACTICED. There IS NO OR POOR GOVERNMENT SCHOOL ‘VALUES EDUCATION’ POLICY and most schools are off-radar and inaccessible to ‘Life Skill’ NGOs struggling to pay for personnel, equipment and transport to visit the Nigerian students in their classrooms.  

    Nigeria needs TO BROADEN THE CURRICULUM TO MAINSTREAM THESE CO-CURRICULAR TOPICS IN THE CURRICULUM AS CLASSROOM SUBJECTS and tertiary General Paper.

    Historically school-based Clubs including Boy Scouts, Girl Guides, Red Cross, Blue Crescent, Man O’War, Literary and Debating, Science etc. were widespread in schools and did an amazing job of transferring many of the currently undertaken ‘Life skills’ tasks, including Volunteerism, now abandoned to NGOs to transfer. Many good schools have computers, Scrabble and other CLUBS in addition, but the reach and spread are inadequate.

    It is up to Nigerian politicians in GOVERNMENT TO URGENTLY REUSE STAGNATING FUNDS OF UBEC (N1.39b in mid-2024) for the education of youth at state level. WE MUST COMBAT THE LOW NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT CONCEPT OF WHAT ‘A NIGERIAN SCHOOL’ SHOULD BE, OFFER AND PROVIDE.’ UN standard Nigerian ‘CHILD AND TEACHER FRIENDLY SCHOOL’ with adequate Classrooms, Toilets, Libraries and Laboratories and Education Facilities’ are not nuclear physics. They are the Right of our Children and Responsibility of Governance. Most Nigerian schools would fail ‘IS THIS A CATFS?’ examination. This is a failure of the system. 

    Read Also: Nigeria’s economic reforms yielding results , says AfDB

    While awaiting State Police for states wanting it, in part response to new 2025 attack waves by ISIS and Boko Haram, President Tinubu rightly established a 130,000 Forest Rangers Force for our 1,129 forests i.e. approx. 115 per forest. This cannot be by federal character but by local recruitment content only but records can be the six Federal Zones e.g. North Central Zone Forest Rangers etc. Equipment quality, especially firepower, will counter combat constraints facing groups like AMOTEKUN, who have as a result needlessly lost gallant Fellow Nigerian members. May the Government educate their children and pay a Died-On-Active-Service Pension to their wives. What weapons will be ‘allowed’ for our FR? And what supervision will stop the FR in turn terrorising the forest dwellers as unsupervised ‘uniforms’ do nationwide?

    The Forest Rangers organisers would need a similar army of IT experts for the deployment of a 130,000 Forest Drone Deployment Strategy for grid-based surveillance, heat-sensitive and real-time Combat Capacity with a Drone Squadron HQ for backup. These are security jobs for 13,000 or 130,000 backup frontline IT youth – right there. To anticrime and anti-terrorism, add anti-smuggling, agricultural and tourist advantages. Proper IT and drones will catapult our forests into the 21st Century with vital data available to universities and other bodies. 

    As we plan a 2025 Security Summit, including Forest Ranger surveillance, note MEDIA SILENCE & SECRECY and the stupidity of prior announcement of ‘Operation Hopping Cockroach’ on the air alerting terrorists to go on short leave. Update and improve the 9th ASSEMBLY SECURITY STRATEGY which cost untold millions with State Police, drone development partnerships, IT recruitments in security, bank and court-ordered cellphone surveillance, undercover work and communications monitoring.  ONLY ENCIRCLEMENT, CAPTURE OR DESTRUCTION and only then the media announcement is the tested battle plan. Take our security to the IT level.   

  • President Tinubu: Beyond the mid-term

    President Tinubu: Beyond the mid-term

    In a few hours, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will have completed two years in office. What are his notable achievements? What areas require attention and improvement in the next two years?

    A review of the past two years reveals a significant redefinition of conventional wisdom in key areas, particularly the economy and infrastructure. The removal of the petroleum products subsidy has been a defining point of the new administration. The preceding Buhari administration had already placed the incoming administration in a challenging position, by stopping allocations for “subsidy” after a May 31, 2023. President Tinubu demonstrated boldness in its risk-taking by addressing this issue head-on. Could the gradual phase-out approach employed in Chile over eight years have been a viable alternative? Unfortunately, Nigeria’s weak institutions and distorted economy render the Chilean model impracticable. Quarterly price adjustments, as implemented in Chile, would have been chaotic in Nigeria; therefore, the government’s decisive action, although risky, was the most sensible approach.

    Similarly, eliminating arbitrage-fuelled foreign exchange manipulation and speculation was a necessary measure, albeit a disruptive one. The country was on the brink of a balance of payments crisis, leaving little room for manoeuvre. These two policies have had far-reaching dislocating effects. The government has had to manage these consequences in a country lacking even the most basic social safety nets. Consequently, purchasing power parity has been impacted, and painful adjustments in living standards have been necessary.

    Looking ahead to the post-midterm period, the government would do well to redirect the savings from subsidy elimination into more comprehensive social safety nets, such as food banks and transportation access mechanisms for school children. Merging the Ministry of Labour and Humanitarian Affairs into a single Ministry for the Social Economy could facilitate this process. This approach, inspired by the Scandinavian countries and increasingly adopted in Latin America, notably Brazil, Chile, and Peru, would integrate humanitarian and disaster management efforts into social and economic development.

    Despite current challenges, the government merits accolades for implementing structural economic reforms. Notable achievements include significant debt repayment, rising foreign reserves, growing investor confidence, expansive infrastructural development, youth empowerment schemes and student loans. The government’s commitment to recapitalizing Development Finance Institutions, such as the Bank of Agriculture and Bank of Industry, is commendable.

    Deferring immediate gratification will enable Nigeria to accumulate patient capital for long-term infrastructural development, surpassing the benefits of seeking external “Direct Foreign Investment.” The Brazilian Bank for Sustainable Development (BNDES) serves as an exemplary model, having been consistently capitalized since its inception in 1952. BNDES can now offer loans with tenures of up to fifty years, enabling Brazil to develop its infrastructure using internal financing mechanisms and becoming a competitive economy that has lifted tens of millions of people out of poverty.

    Nigeria can adopt a similar approach by recapitalizing its development finance institutions. Continuous recapitalization of development finance institutions will revitalize Nigeria’s struggling infrastructure. Within the 2025–2027 period, equal emphasis should be placed on international trade, monetary policy, and fiscal policies, as part of the economic tripod. Although improvements have been made in non-oil exports, Nigeria still lags in international trade. To address this, the country must shift into “export or perish” mode by revitalizing and professionalizing all agencies involved in the export value chain, including the Standard Organisation of Nigeria, Customs, and the Nigerian Ports Authority. These agencies must be given specific timelines to streamline export procedures.

    The establishment of a Board of Customs, Trade, and Tariffs is crucial for achieving an export-oriented economy. This board will serve as the focal point for export strategy, comprising experts in international trade and consultants in specialized areas. Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, the Minister for Trade and Industry, should prioritize the establishment of this board. By doing so, the Ministry will operate similarly to Japan’s Ministry of International Trade and Industry. Nigeria must capitalize on the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCTA) and prepare for the potential non-renewal of the United States Africa Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) in September 2025.

    In the next two years, the government must focus on quadrupling the value addition of Agro-Industrial exports and transition away from being “hewers of wood and fetchers of water.” Brazil offers a good lesson by shifting from exporting raw cocoa to producing chocolates, thereby creating hundreds of thousands of jobs across the value chain. Exporting non-oil products remains the most viable solution for Nigeria in the immediate and medium term, requiring utmost seriousness.

    The government must also revamp the educational curriculum to enable Nigeria to benefit from the growing outsourced economy. By leveraging its English language skills, Nigeria can create at least half a million outsourced jobs, each earning a minimum of $400 per month, within the next seven years.

    While progress has been made in internal security, an institutional revamp in thinking and philosophy is necessary. The government must focus on deploying more boots on the ground and intensifying the training and utilization of special forces to combat terrorists and insurgents. Nigeria has only about 400,000 policemen, whereas Egypt, with half of Nigeria’s population, has 1.7 million policemen. The inadequacy of police numbers has placed the miscreants at an advantage. Devolving policing powers to the state level will allow state governments to have operational control of the policing system. This will enable the effective gathering of local intelligence, which the Federal Police cannot accomplish. Nigeria must move away from the post-1966 mindset of a unitary, Bonapartist, conception of the state, which has not worked and will not work. The UK, USA, Australia, and Canada’s devolution of policing systems should serve as models for Nigeria to adapt and implement urgently.

    Read Also: Agribusiness in Nigeria can drive innovation, job creation, says David Galadima

    Fighting terrorists, bandits, and kidnappers is different from fighting conventional warfare. The Nigerian military cannot win such a war using the old order of battle, without the expensive, tech-rich weapons of the West with their fleet of Tucanos, Chinooks and C17’s. Our military has to be redesigned to be more agile. The Taliban won with Toyota Hilux and hand propelled arms. We must accept that we are in asymmetrical warfare for which our troops are not fully prepared. There must be specialized forces to combat guerrilla warfare. There must be a reordering of the cost of governance to put an extra 15,000 boots on the ground ever year. The Defence industries must also be beefed up so that arms and ammunitions can be produced locally and in greater numbers.

    As far as infrastructure is concerned, we must now place emphasis on rail and water transportation. Concessioning could be done on major highways as in the US so that a tolling system can be used to recoup funds to be used in maintenance. The government should set up a three trillion-naira concessioning funds for contractors to use to build infrastructure they will now use tolling to repay over a 25–30-year period. This has been done successfully by BNDES in Brazil and other places. The infrastructure deficits can only be abridged by building up “Patient Capital” to finance long term infrastructure projects. Given the infrastructural deficit, a trillion-naira fund can only scratch the surface.

    The country must also develop a Green Economy by developing local raw materials to produce solar panels, batteries, inverters etc., thereby using the economies of scale to bring down prices. To achieve a diverse energy base, a green economy will also include wind turbines to use along the coastline for electricity sufficiency. The recent adoption and ratification of National Integrated Electricity Policy shows the President has taken his time to study the power conundrum we are in. This policy has a goal of attracting $122.2 billion in investments to overhaul Nigeria’s power sector in line with global best practices. Unlocking a total investment of $122.2bn will help diversify Nigeria’s energy sources, reduce dependence on the national grid, and enhance the overall stability and sustainability of the nation’s energy infrastructure.

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Nigeria First policy unveiled recently had all is poised to accommodate these suggestions. With zeal and commitment and effective project implementation, a new Nigeria is possible.

  • Two years

    Two years

    S’eru bawon vs d’aya ja won! — Intimidation vs intimidation!

    That’s the government thunder versus the opposition bomb, with 2027 in view, as the Tinubu order clocks two!

    The starry-eyed, easily swayed by dummies and counter-dummies, sundry sensation and allied stuff, have more than enough popcorn to crunch, at a gripping movie!

    Atiku Abubakar, spurred as always by a wild presidential obsession, trots, canters and gallops all over, in search of a coalition — or even merger — to live his dream.

    But he forgets he’s no Bola Tinubu who though declared being president his “life-long” ambition, knew when to feint and when to thrust, until he landed the big prize.

    Atiku — jooro, jaara, jooro — (apologies to Fela and his explosive Zombie album), to alleged marabouts’ sweet prophecies, easily forgets his insensate tragedy of 2023! 

    In response — or is it parri-pasu now? — the Tinubu order, grandmasters of political cut-and-thrust, mounts own foxtrots.

    After Delta, another tsunami looms in Akwa Ibom, like Delta since 1999, a PDP fortress! It appears another grim tale of a ragged umbrella torn and ripped in ceaseless gale!

    Baba Iyabo, in his Ebora Owu lair, must be taking quite some sombre tutorials! After his garrison command tactics of crude hug-and-crush, he is fated to gawking — with saliva trickling from both sides of the mouth! — as the real McCoys wave the real charm, yet potent opposition poison!

    First, Delta.  Looming: Akwa Ibom.  Next? 

    It’s defections and rumors of defections all over! And all that from the fella Obasanjo’s powerful machine once rendered the “last man standing” in 2003!  It’s true: vengeance is best served very cold!

    What did Heraclitus, the old Greek say?  You can’t step in the same river twice! Indeed!

    As the opposition plots, old paths to the Presidency are fast going up in smoke!  These blokes are not unlike the doomed Saddam Hussein, who arrayed his elite Republican Guard in the old staid way of battle, only to be blown away by some nimble, fast and furious, “shock and awe” monsters, from George Bush’s America!

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    Still, is 2027 a wrap for the president?  Not a chance!  But the Atiku armada seems off-pace too by the day!  We’ll await how all the high drama pans out.

    To seize the people’s minds, the policy front is another theatre of claims and counter-claims.

    The Tinubu order claims it’s putative nirvana. The opposition rank scoffs it’s regression to sheer hell.  Both play on the hyperbole.  The stark reality is in-between.

    Still, seeing the Federal Government dish out stats about the economy turning the bend gives you the feeling of deja vu — have we not seen all of this before?

    Indeed, the well-loved Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, both under Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan, once bandied similar stats, giving the impression that it was some quarter to paradise.

    You have that same feeling, as Tinubu’s ministers belt out their feats two years later.  Both eras belong to elite testimonies. The bemused masses are but distant onlookers!

    Still, to be fair, there would appear some hard progression. 

    While the Obasanjo era celebrated “debt-forgiveness”, the Tinubu order is posting the payment of hardcore debts, as any nation with honour and dignity would.

    From “rebasing” by Okonjo-Iweala to fatten the cow, a Wale Edun-driven fiscal order, even from a lean cow, is posting the alluring promise of a US$ 1 trillion economy; and seems intensely in the works, doing all the hard restructuring, to make that a reality.

    Indeed, the stats look impressive, even to the apolitical; but outright scary to the opposition: exit from the IMF debt list, with the body itself, the harsh doctor from Bretton Woods, issuing a clean bill of health; a US$ 14 billion reduction from the government’s inherited debt stock: US$ 108.2 billion to US$ 94.2 billion in two years.

    Sounds far superior to craven — and futile — “debt forgiveness” of the Obasanjo era, which blew oil windfall that could have rebuilt infrastructure, on a pipe dream!

    Then, a 4.6% year-on-year GDP growth in 4th quarter 2024, with even more mouth-watering prospects for 2025.  Also, 3rd quarter 2024: a record trade surplus of N5.81 trillion: N20.5 trillion exports vs N14.7 trillion imports, powered by non-oil exports.

    These stats just prompted Reno Omokri, a Tinubu Saul-turned-Paul, to announce his ringing endorsement for the president to run for second term.

    But even for those that cannot crunch economic numbers, there is something much more banal, in the metamorphosis over the years. 

    The Obasanjo years — the former president loves to brag it was the best of the PDP years — was defined by Works Minister Tony Anenih’s moans of “no cash backing”. That explained the infrastructure limbo of those years; prompting the economic sink.

    The Tinubu years — just two years — are boasting good stats, complete with David Umahi, the Works minister that not tantalizes with audacious infrastructure in the works, but also strategic public-private sector initiatives, for all-season funding, to free critical infrastructure of the plague of no cash backing for budgets.

    But if the administration were to play less the Titan Atlas, it would admit that it was an admirable renaissance it inherited from the Buhari Presidency. 

    Had it logged on to that from the beginning, it would by now have built a clear-cut case for a definitive difference between the PDP and APC epochs. That means the government can do far better in strategic communications — at least to counter the cheap talk that APC is no different from PDP.  In infrastructure, they are day vs night.

    But alas!  It would appear the last-regime-must-be-painted-bad-for-mine-to-shine is wired to the DNA of government propagandists!  It’s all so infantile.

    So, with the Tinubu order seemingly worsting the opposition in both defection politics and solid stats from policies, is the coast clear for 2027?  Hardly!

    The twin-pillars of its reforms — oil subsidy removal and floating of the Naira — have shovelled far more cash into governments’ till, at all levels.  But the frightful inflation both have triggered has made the majority far poorer and miserable.

    Though a few rogues have been fingered for both decisions, the “savings” from subsidy have not quite percolated into households, rich or poor. 

    Folks buy fuel at hiked pump prices. But even when the so-called subsidy thieves ruled the roost, citizens enjoyed far lower pump prices, translating into far lower inflation. That appears a lost paradise now!

    Oosa b’oole gbami, se mi b’ose ba mi!  — the Yoruba often quip: if the deity can’t improve my lot, let it at least return me to how I was!

    Yes, the Tinubu order always says the pains are temporary; and also that inflation is trending down.  Maybe. 

    But for 2027 to be sure, it runs an explosive race against time, for all of these sweet stats to resonate in citizens’ pockets.

    In truth, it appears an eerie recap of May 2001 in Lagos, when Governor Tinubu turned two in office.  It was a classic ebudola — throaty curses-turned-deluge of praises — as the governor hugged his third year in office.

    That might well be a fine historical augury for his presidency.  But to make assurance doubly sure, the masses must have a feel of the rumoured coming good times.

  • Elasticity of a shadow

    Elasticity of a shadow

    The proposed Big Tent Coalition Shadow Government by erudite Professor of Political Economics, Pat Utomi, has elicited a lot of interest, such that the State Security Service (SSS) has threatened to bring an action in court against him, to stop what they consider a subversive endeavour. Prof. Utomi, a well-sought public intellectual, must have rankled some nerves to warrant such attention. Many public commentators have critiqued the proposal, some arguing in favour and others against what they regard as a shadowy enterprise.

    No doubt, a shadow government or cabinet is clearly strange in a presidential system. In the parliamentary system where Prof Utomi may have borrowed the concept, what they have in Britain is a shadow cabinet; and in some other jurisdictions like Canada or New Zealand what they call Opposition Critic or Spokesman. Usually, it is the elected members of the opposition parties in parliament that constitute their representatives into a shadow cabinet, and as Sam Omatseye pointed out in his piece on the subject matter, they are referred to as the loyal opposition in Britain.

    Considering that in a presidential system of government, the winner alone forms the government, it is strange to constitute a shadow cabinet. If as Prof. Utomi proposes, unelected members of opposition parties can form a shadow cabinet, it may create chaos. One imagines what would be the outcome if as many political parties as we have decided to create a shadow government. Again, for a presidential system, where the opposition do not sit in parliament with the elected government, there will be no opportunity for a robust debate between the real thing and its shadow.

    It must be noted that a critical benefit of the Westminster shadow cabinet is the opportunity for a robust debate of proposed programmes in the parliament. When the substantive minister proposes a programme, the shadow minister knowledgeable in that area of state affairs would counteract him or her with facts and figures, or even propose an alternative policy. With such robust interactions, the policies of the state are chiselled through an anvil. The robust debate also presents the public with alternative views from the opposition party.

    Again, the robust interaction helps members of the parliament, even of the ruling party, to know when the government is veering off course; and when a major policy is defeated in parliament, a snap election is usually called. So, both the ruling cabinet and the shadow cabinet made up of elected members have interest in the survival of the system, and having sworn their oaths as parliamentarians, they owe allegiance and loyalty to the institution which they belong to as well as the larger interest of the country.

    The challenge with Prof. Utomi’s proposal is that members of the shadow cabinet would not be elected, would not take any oath and so would owe no allegiance to any institution or the country. Without such institutional checks and balances, not even the Big Tent Coalition proponents can vouch for the integrity of the purpose of the shadow cabinet, or have the ability to bring them to account, if they chose to fly off the wheel. If they even chose to engage in subversive actions, the coalition would have no way to bring the shadow cabinet member to account.

    Again, without the opportunity for the Westminster type of head-to-head heated debates, what benefit would the shadow cabinet serve? The best we would have is a cacophony of voices in the media, of persons who claim to hold alternative views to that of the government in power, without the interrogation the parliamentary system provides. Again, with the indiscipline that politicians across political parties have been exhibiting, is the Prof. not worried that his shadow cabinet members would disagree in the public glare and ridicule the coalition for private political gains?

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    The presidential system is structured for periodic elections as the only legitimate way to sack a government in power. The periods between the elections give opposition parties the time to organise, criticise and prepare for the next election. Commendably, Nigerian democracy has matured enough, and the government in power does not openly muzzle opposition as we see in some countries. As I write, there is no opposition figure in jail or undergoing trial for one trumped-up charge or the other. And that is the way to grow democratically.

    The opposition figures are freely meeting and canvassing one form of coalition or another, geared to unseat the government of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 general election. However, the challenge facing them is the capacity to agree amongst themselves, as it seems every one of the leaders wants to be the presidential candidate in 2027. Former vice president Atiku Abubakar, who is in the twilight of his political career, as I wrote weeks ago, is desperate, and will do anything to run in the 2027 presidential election.

    The candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi, obviously understands that he cannot work with an Atiku who sees 2027 as his last chance to contest the presidency, when his own last chance may be the same 2027. It is such a clash that leaves the coalition talks that Atiku claims to be championing in tatters. Without the two working together, the rest of the interests masquerading as coalition are mere jokes.

    Without the Atiku and Obi factors, the much-touted Big Tent coalition will amount to mere political shadows of no import. So, Prof. Utomi, instead of dispensing energy over forming a shadowy shadow cabinet, should use his intellectual and organisational ability to form a coalition capable of giving the ruling party a run for their money at the polls. No matter how fanciful the name may sound, or even the idea may seem, building a political coalition with the momentum to oust a sitting government is a big task.

    Even the coalition that Atiku and his unhappy brethren from ADC, SDP, PDP and Labour parties are talking about has a lot of shadows masquerading as interested parties in it. All the four parties have splinters and who knows which splinter will enter into the coalition. From what is going on, there is the likelihood that such disagreement may be carried into the new coalition. Without trust amongst the founding parties, the coalition would be filled with shadows.

    Like a little child running away from his shadow, the shadow follows him as he runs. Even more worrisome is that the shadow turns to a scarecrow. The members in the various opposition parties need to examine the challenges facing their various parties, and unselfishly find solutions to them. If they keep running from one party to another like a little child, from his shadow, fear and trepidation will be their lot.

  • Crusading for Emefiele

    Crusading for Emefiele

    Godwin Ifeanyi Emefiele (CFR), Nsukka, Harvard and Stanford University-trained economist turned banker, who served as governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 4 June 2014 until he was suspended by President Bola Tinubu, on 9 June 2023, will probably go down in history as the most criminally minded and the worst Nigerian CBN governor.

    Undoubtedly, Emefiele was a master of his game. A PDP sympathiser brought in to supplant Sanusi Lamido, believed to be sympathetic to APC on account of his relentless criticism of massive corruption going on in Jonathan’s administration, effortlessly manipulated an untrusting Buhari who just watched him as he broke all rules, including attempting to succeed his principal even as a sitting CBN governor.

    As a leader with the mindset of a feudal lord, Emefiele gave Buhari all feudal lords’ want – unalloyed loyalty.  Buhari overlooked Emefiele’s criminal tendencies, which were apparent from his handling of $2.1b released to the former National Security Adviser, Colonel Sambo Dasuki (retd), which was shared as election largesse to reappoint him for a second term.

    But how was Emefiele able to cover up his criminal enterprise for eight years, whether in terms of foreign exchange manipulation, where his friends who did not bid secured allocation freely deployed for round tripping, printing of over N30 trillion through ways and means, half of which was suspected to have been stolen, and various multibillion CBN intervention programmes that produced only fake rice pyramids?

    Emefiele had a useful ally in a section of the media that opted to trade its constitutional role of holding other institutions of state accountable and serving as agents of socialisation, for crusading for crooks, a very rewarding endeavour when they are executed on behalf of influential bank owners who converted depositors funds to private use, governors who desperately need the judiciary to retain their opponents’ stolen mandates, and, of course, those who stole the country blind by confiscating national patrimony in the name of privatisation and monetisation self- serving policies.

    Emefiele was a toast of ARISE TV and her Thisday platform, especially since his reappointment for a second term by President Buhari. They had waged war after war against anyone who dared to raise questions about Emefiele’s character, including the House of Representatives and its speaker, vice president Osinbajo, candidate Tinubu in the 2023 election and some APC governors that went to court to compel Emefiele to obey the Supreme Court judgment.

    It is on record that Emefiele held the nation hostage during his politically motivated currency re-colouring exercise, as angry and hungry Nigerians, denied access to their money, laid siege to banks and ATM centres. The House of Representatives tried to persuade an unfeeling and arrogant Emefiele to consider the suffering of Nigerians.

    Thisday immediately embarked on a crusade on behalf of Emefiele, with a front-page January 28, 2023 story titled “In battle against independent monetary policy, House threatens Emefiele.” The crusaders dismissed the House invitation of the CBN governor to appear before its banking committee over the lingering currency crisis, in line with its statutory oversight function, as a plot to “erode” CBN’s independence.

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    After his repeated failure to  honour House committee summons,  the then House Speaker, Femi Gbajabiamila, had threatened to invoke relevant sections of the law to effect Emefiele’s arrest by the police for undermining the efforts of the House to carry out its oversight functions. Thisday and its self-proclaiming patriots accused the speaker of pursuing personal interest, claiming the invitation was “against the provisions of the law.”

    Vice President Osinbajo was not spared by ARISE, self –proclaimed patriots. When, in November 2021, he criticised the Central Bank governor for what he called an “artificially low” exchange rate, claiming he was convinced that the demand management strategy adopted by the CBN needed a rethink, it was from far-away Paris, during Nigeria International Partnership Forum, that Nigerians were told, through ARISE Correspondent, Adefemi Akinsanya, that the Vice President missed the point. He debunked the VP’s accusations of poor collaboration between Nigeria’s fiscal and monetary authorities. Emefiele also spoke of pumping close to N3trillion loans to manufacturers at a single digit rate and more monies to Buhari’s policy of creating 100 million jobs in four years.

    Candidate Bola Tinubu in the 2023 election was similarly viciously attacked by ARISE’ self-proclaimed patriots in the service of Emefiele. He had publicly criticised the government claiming the CBN policy was targeted at him to scuttle his presidential campaign. His APC supporters threw their weight behind his remarks.  ARISE, of course, took sides with Emefiele, and the president, who they claimed were acting in the public interest. They spoke of a bullion van found in his house during the 2019 election in which he was not a participant.

    For ARISE, Emefiele could do no wrong. In February 2023, Governors Nasir El-Rufai (Kaduna), Yahaya Bello (Kogi) and Bello Matawalle (Zamfara) dragged the Federal Government before the Supreme Court, complaining of the time frame for the exchange of the re-designed naira. According to them, “the majority of their state indigenes have been unable to exchange or deposit their old naira notes as there are no banks in the rural areas where the majority of the population of the states reside.” What they got from Emefiele was his insistence that the February 10 deadline remained unchanged.

    But the battle cry from ARISE that claimed, without proof, that the governors were driven by a desire to buy votes was “fact check me, it is all about the governors’ shenanigans.” They even went farcical, questioning the right of the governors to appeal to the Supreme Court when they did not go to court over the abduction of Shaibu five years earlier

    In May 2022, Emefiele expressed his desire to succeed President Buhari by filing a lawsuit at the Federal High Court in Abuja seeking an order directing INEC and the Office of the Attorney General not to stop him from contesting the presidency. While Nigerians demanded the removal of the CBN governor and accused him of violating multiple provisions of the Central Bank Act, Emefiele’s media enablers found nothing.

    After being dressed in borrowed robes for eight years, what Nigerians can deduce from various recent judicial pronouncements is that Emefiele engaged in corrupt practices.

    For instance, Justice Bogoro, in his judgement, held that the following funds and properties are proceeds of unlawful activities, which are bound to be forfeited to the Federal Government of Nigeria: $4.7m, N830m, and multiple properties linked to Emefiele by the Federal High Court in Lagos.

    The funds, forfeited to the Federal Government, were held in First Bank, Titan Bank, and Zenith Bank accounts managed by individuals and entities including Omoile Anita Joy, Deep Blue Energy Services Limited, Exact Quote Bureau De Change Ltd, Lipam Investment Services Limited, Tatler Services Limited, Rosajul Global Resources Ltd, and TIL Communication Nigeria Ltd.

    The properties affected include 94 units of an 11-floor building under construction at 2 Otunba Elegushi 2nd Avenue, Ikoyi, Lagos; AM Plaza, 11-floor office space on Otunba Adedoyin Crescent, Lekki Peninsula Scheme 1, Lagos; Imore Industrial Park 1 on Esa Street, Imoore Land, Amuwo Odofin LGA, Lagos; Mitrewood and Tatler Warehouse (Furniture Plant at Bogije) near Elemoro, Owolomi Village, Ibeju-Lekki LGA, Lagos; and two properties purchased from Chevron Nigeria, located in Lakes Estate, Lekki, Lagos.

    Others are a plot at Lekki Foreshore Estate Scheme, Foreshore Estate, Eti-Osa, LGA; an estate at 100 Cottonwood Coppell Texas Drive, Coppell, Texas, owned by Lipam Investment Services; land at 1 Bunmi Owulude Street, Lekki Phase 1, Lagos; and a property at 8 Bayo Kuku Road, Ikoyi, Lagos.

    Similarly, on 22 June 2024, in another related case, a Federal High Court granted the final forfeiture of properties worth over N12.18 billion to the Federal Government. EFCC Chairman Olukoyede described the seizure and forfeiture as “one of the most significant in the nation’s history.”

    The Federal Capital Territory (FCT) High Court, sitting in Apo, presided over by Justice Jude Onwuegbuzie, also struck out an application filed Godwin Emefiele, seeking to reclaim the 753 duplexes and apartments located at Plot 109, Cadastral Zone CO9, Lokogoma District, Abuja, and measuring 150,462.84 square metres, which had already been forfeited to the government.

    Now who is going to save us as the new normal today is for corrupt people to go to court to defend the disproportional share of our resources they illegally cornered while those crusading for them daily assault our sensibilities mouthing patriotism, even when it is not lost on us that “patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.”

  • One day with President Tinubu

    One day with President Tinubu

    The suave Ambassador Adekunle Adeleke, the State Chief of Protocol, walked into the waiting room and said the president asked for me. The inner caucus of the presidential staff were in the scribe’s office, including the chief security officer, Adegboyega Fasasi and personal assistant Kamorudeen Yusuf. Swathed in a sunny smile was the country’s First Physician, Dr. Ade Tinubu, who has only one patient: the First Citizen.

    After exchange of pleasantries, including Yusuf’s affable jibe at my fila, I was ushered into the president’s office. Poring over a document, President Bola Tinubu did not know my shadow was before him. Principal Private Secretary Hakeem Muri-Okunola welcomed me in and the president heard, looked up, smiled and offered me a handshake and I sat. He continued reading. Muri-Okunola, popularly known as HMO, informed me the president was absorbed in his daily briefings. Private secretary Adedamilotun Aderemi was beside him.

    I asked him how often he received the briefing. HMO said Monday through Sunday, with a chuckle. Prepared every day, the briefing was sometimes oral, but often both oral and written. The office is smaller than most ministers’ offices with its understated elegance.

    Once he stopped reading, I posed a question to him about security in Plateau State.

    “The Plateau State governor was here last night,” he remarked, and he reeled out an idea he was mulling to Mutfwang to put the guns at bay and bring peace and plenty to the Plateau. The idea is at gestation, disruptive and out of the box.

    “I was not in the battleground, but I didn’t sleep,” he said glumly about the bloodbath in the region.

    We veered into agriculture, and his face lit up as he announced a Brazilian $2.5 billion investment in livestock. Feasibility studies had advanced for ranching.  He praised Livestock Minister Mukhtar Maiha, who is mooing well with his new job.

    “We are bringing in 2,000 tractors into the country,” he said. Just then National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu walked in, and quipped, “Hi Sam. Mr. President, how did he get into town and he went through my security net?” The president smiled, and Ribadu sat down, and the dialogue went into a plan to make cattle wear chips, to monitor, tame herdsmen violence and cattle rustling.

    The president remarked that the 33 items were too many before the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting scheduled to hold in a moment. The unwieldy number could chip away at rigorous exchange and debate. He was working a mechanism to beat down the number so any item that escaped his eye or FEC did not end up in fraud. The Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila, also entered and we exchanged greetings.

    Just then, Vice President Kashim Shettima entered, and he, too, was surprised to see me. He had a warm exchange with the president and thanked the Jagaban for his help.

    The cabinet was seated, and the president rose, and I followed his retinue to the chamber meeting, next door.

    Before deliberations and after the national anthem, President Tinubu swore in a commissioner for INEC and members of the Code of Conduct Bureau. Three absentees: FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, Attorney General Lateef Fagbemi and Foreign Affairs Minister of State, Bianca Ojukwu.

    Secretary to the Government of the Federation, George Akume was the scribe, and the president was addressed as Mr. Chairman. The meeting started in earnest with a memo from the president himself about insurance for key officers. But Creative Economy Minister Hanatu Musawa’s memo was the next to be read by Akume, about $100 billion programme.

    The president highlighted the Wole Soyinka Theatre, which he described as “a diamond in the rough,” and great revenue potential given its environment. Since her memo did not draw from the public till, the president said it was approved.

    Aviation Minister Festus Keyamo had a few also that received approval but not before the president adverted to the antelope snafu at the Asaba Airport.

    Drama did not come until Works Minister Dave Umahi’s turn. Before that, he seconded virtually all proposals before his own memos. Of course, those of Education Minister Tunji Alausa, Health Minister Mohammed Ali Pate and Agriculture Minister Abubakar Kyari, among others had smooth sails.

    Pate’s memo resonated with the public private partnership to domesticate production of essential drugs to cut import cost and choke the market for fake and adulterated medicines.

    He drew applause for his honour as one of Time Magazine’s 100 influential persons. Kyari updated the president that of the 2,000 tractors anticipated, half had arrived.

    Umahi’s list was longer than anyone else, covering roads in all regions. He announced that 19 projects were ready for commissioning, and 25 others by December. Section one of the East-West Road, a section of the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road awaited the blare of traffic.

    Some roads in the Southwest raised some concern. They included the Ibadan-Ife-Ilesa road, the Sagamu-Ore-Benin Road and the Ekiti-Akure-Benin road. The third generated a response from Solid  Mineral Development  Minister Dele Alake when he said, for 30 years, it had suffered neglect, and he “wholeheartedly support(ed) the memo.” The president asked, “are you sure” he has plied that road? And he said yes, eliciting laughter.

    Alausa observed that the Sagamu-Ore-Benin road was not only a deathtrap, it had many industries there, making it both a safety and economic urgency.  The Ibadan-Ife-Ilesa Road, said Umahi, was emphasized when First Lady Oluremi Tinubu passed it in her visit to Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU). This essayist also drove through it a week ago when I visited OAU for a reading of my new novel, Juju Eyes. It took me an hour to return to Ibadan but two hours from Ibadan to Ife.

    All three projects were approved.

    But Umahi drew swords with Wale Edun, Minister of Finance/Coordinating Minister of the Economy, when Edun said quite a few firms were prepared to bankroll the projects.

    Umahi threw the first salvo earlier, a comment that jolted the amiable air of the meeting.

     “Since Edun does not like to release money…” But Edun gave no riposte until Umahi had completed his presentation. Umahi said handing the projects over to bankrollers would mire the country in legal obligations because of the contract terms. It was a tense exchange between both men.

    “I won’t sign my pen on any such matter,” Umahi said.

    “You have a bad handwriting,” the president said sarcastically.

    Umahi said he would like to rest and he did not want such matters to keep him up at night.

    “You want to rest?” asked the president.

    “No sir. I mean after eight years. That’s what I mean, sir. I want to rest just like the president after eight years.”

    A laughter across the hall.

    Alausa said the roads were too urgent to bog us down by a committee to look into it. The president had the last word and said he would work with Lateef Fagbemi, the attorney general, to find a way out of the legal mire. The roads, he contended, were too important to be delayed by contracts.

    Whereupon the president asked Umahi about the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency of Nigeria (FERMA), what of all the engineers? Why can’t they maintain the roads? The agency is under Umahi, but it is underfunded. Umahi said FERMA has 7,300 engineers and for FERMA to do its job, it has to be by legislation. The president said urgent memo was needed to seek out how to make FERMA central to road infrastructure in the country. Umahi referred to Iddo Bridge and Carter Bridge in Lagos undergoing checks.

     Just as he was talking, Regional Development Minister Abubakar Momoh took Umahi on about FERMA negligence. He spoke with rage, and Umahi asked the president to take from Momoh’s budget to his ministry in order to fix roads in his domain. Momoh was livid as everyone else laughed.

    A little chuckle over a road that led to Ribadu town in Adamawa, and the president asked, “Ribadu?”

    Another laugh.

    Umahi said it was an important artery in the region. Another drama involved Ribadu when he explained the danger of dredging, some of them in the Lekki area.

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     The president teased him to leave dredging and go to the forests and flush out the bandits.

    Ribadu held his own and said dredgers posed security threats, including oil pipelines. It led to discussion on vandalizations of bridges and manholes, and the president agreed with Gbajabiamila that a special legislation with stiff penalty should be enacted to punish the thieves and the enabling companies.

    The meeting cheered to the payment of IMF loan. Edun said it  made the government creditworthy. The president told me later that it resulted from discipline, adding that ways and means and the $7 billion debts were now behind the country.

    After the meeting, I commented to Alake on the feisty atmosphere. He said it was a carryover from Lagos when Tinubu was governor. It had a collegial air. The president did not hold a patriarchal hold on the debates. It was a FEC of self-expression.

    During lunch with him, I observed to the president it seemed we had just started to govern, given the deliberations.

     He held meetings I observed comings and goings like a fly on the wall. One was from Aminu Maida, who wanted the president’s backing on recent hirings and he was under political pressure to replace merit with corruption. “I believe in merit. Do what is right,” said Tinubu. Another special adviser updated him on CNG.

    HMO returned as the day was winding down to update him on  what was coming up. One of about an anticipated list. His trip to inaugurate Pope Leo XIV topped his priority. “I should get my suit ready,” he said.

    He would take his rest and return, and meetings would last into the night. “When his appointees are sleeping,” remarked his P.A. Yusuf. “The president is working at 2 am.” I had witnessed that once with Dangote, Akinyelure, Segun Osoba, Oshiomhole, Fubara, et al. A busy day, a busy president.

  • When voting can’t be mandatory

    When voting can’t be mandatory

    A bill for mandatory voting for all eligible Nigerians passed the second reading at the House of Representatives penultimate week. Jointly sponsored by the Speaker, Tajudeen Abbas, and a lawmaker from Plateau State, Daniel Asama, the bill seeks to amend the Electoral Act 2022 to make voting compulsory for all Nigerians of voting age in national and state elections.

    The proposed piece of legislation prescribes a fine of N100,000 or six months imprisonment or both for eligible voters who fail to exercise that civic duty without valid justification. When he led the debate on the floor of the house, Asama sought to justify the bill on the grounds that democracy thrives better when the people are actively involved in choosing their leaders and shaping governance.

    Hear him: “Voting is not only a right but a civic responsibility and in many democracies across the world, it is treated as such. This bill proposes to introduce mandatory voting for all Nigerians of voting age in general elections, both at the national and state levels. It seeks to amend the relevant provisions of the Electoral Act 2022, to reflect this obligation while also allowing for limited and justified exemptions where necessary”

    He cited low voter turnout and the imperative to reverse the trend as justification for the bill, drawing parallels with the 2023 general elections which he said recorded less than 30 per cent voter participation. The trend, he argued, undermines the legitimacy of elected governments and weakens democratic institutions.

    Asama further cited Australia, Belgium and Brazil among democracies that have adopted compulsory voting with positive outcomes in political participation and public accountability. Though the bill generated divided opinions among members, it nevertheless scaled the second reading.

    The issues canvassed by Asama, especially as they relate to deepening democracy and good governance through popular participation in elections, constitute the pristine ideals which representative democracy seeks to promote. Democracy, in the form it manifested in the medieval Greek City States, entailed physical participation of the people in the election of their leaders. But the sheer size of modern states has precluded direct democracy of the ancient times.

     Representative democracy evolved to respond to population dynamics of modern states. Since it is no longer possible for the electorate to gather in one square to elect their leaders, an arrangement through which they will still exercise that obligation without assembling in one particular place was evolved – representative democracy. By this, the people exercise the power to rule through their elected representatives.

    This, ipso facto, recognises the inalienable rights of the people to elect their leaders through the ballot process. Through this process, it is also assumed those who emerge as leaders during elections do so through popular sovereignty. Thus, the strength of representative democracy lies in its capacity to reflect the collective will of the people through popular participation in elections.

    So, all the issues raised by the sponsors of the bill on active participation of the electorate in enhancing effective governance and overall legitimacy are commonplace arguments. They constitute the lynchpin on which the wheels of the democratic process revolve. There are no issues with such precepts but examples.

    What this country stands to gain through popular participation of eligible voters during elections in terms of enhancement of governance legitimacy and effective leadership is not in doubt. Unfortunately, the bill targets the wrong problem. The therapy the bill seeks to administer to low voter turnout is an obviously inefficacious one. It will achieve practically nothing without addressing the systemic challenges that promote and reinforce low voter turnout.

    The issue is the credibility and integrity of elections. How credible are elections usually marred by all manner of infractions promoted by the high and low? A few years back, ballot box snatching, writing of election results in the comfort of the homes of prominent politicians and hotel rooms, were the order of the day. Results announced bore no semblance to votes cast at the ballot box. And those announced as winners were mainly not the people the electorate cast their votes for at the voting centres.

    These electoral infractions did a lot to weaken the confidence of the electorate in the ballot process, with low voter turnout as its logical outcome. It took strong agitations, protests and some reforms in the Electoral Act to restore some modicum of confidence in our elections. But as soon as these reforms guaranteeing the sanctity and integrity of the electoral process were introduced, crooked politicians went back to the drawing board to invent new techniques to subvert the new law.

    That is why the introduction of technology in election management has not been allowed to function properly. In the 2023 general elections, the hopes of the electorate for credible elections, one that satisfies integrity tests, were abruptly dashed by what the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) called ‘glitches.’ Vote buying has also reared its monstrous head in forms never seen in Nigeria’s electoral history.

    These negative responses to the advent of technology in election management are, in the main, fuelled by the morbid fear of rogue politicians that they will lose out were elections to be free, fair and credible. That is not all. Acts of violence and do-or-die politics are regular features of our elections that scare even the most patriotic.

    Thugs of all descriptions are hired by politicians to harass, main and even kill those opposed to their sponsors. There was a fair dose of these negative tendencies during the last general election, especially at the governorship polls.

    Threats were issued in some states against non-indigenes, while in some others people could not vote on account of the insecurity that has held this country down for a couple of years now. These are the real issues that incubate and promote low voter turnout. Yet, our lawmakers cannot find their voices on them even as fears of rancorous elections in 2027 hover around the political space. How the bill intends to address the systemic dysfunctions that scare people from venturing out to cast their votes holds more value for the integrity of elections than compulsory voting in hostile and life-threatening circumstances.

    The proponents of the bill cited Australia, Belgium and Brazil among democracies that practice mandatory voting with good outcomes. That could be so. But what value is there in comparing countries with dissimilar political cultures and levels of development? Yes, Australia and Belgium practice mandatory voting as well as some other developed countries around the world with varying modifications. Australia imposes a fine of $20 for defaulters while that of Belgium hovers between 40 and 80 euros depending on the number of times of default.

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    Compulsory voting has been in practice in Australia since 1924, and that country is credited with one of the highest voter turnouts in the world. Voters are given a number of avenues to cast their votes during elections. These include postal voting, pre-poll voting, absent voting at Australian missions overseas as well as voting at mobile teams at hospitals, nursing homes, remote localities and ordinary voting at polling centres.

    So there exists some sophistication in the Australian electoral process garnered from years of practice of mandatory voting. Can postal voting take place in this country? Through what means, if one may wish to ask? And if at all it is possible, will the votes not be hijacked along the line by those in control of the instruments of power and coercion?

    The array of voting avenues provided by the Australian electoral system have no place in Nigeria currently. And will be difficult to implement in the foreseeable future. It is therefore not just enough to copy practices and seek to enforce them in climes that are ill-prepared for them. One aspect of the bill that seeks to empower INEC to develop a system to track vote compliance and manage exemption requests strikes as a tall order.

    Australia and Belgium have not been able to enforce voter compliance over the years. Though lists of absentees are required to be sent to the offices of the Public Prosecutor in Belgium, for instance, the reality is that nothing gets to be done with that list.

    INEC, as presently constituted, can ill-afford to be saddled with the additional burden of compiling lists of defaulting voters and managing exemptions. And as this column argued in a previous article, mandatory voting is a thing whose time is yet to come.

    The bill is another research work that has practically no solution to the multi- faceted electoral infractions that frighten voters from venturing out during elections and diminish their confidence in the integrity of the process. The substantive issues that diminish the confidence of the electorate and scare them from venturing out to vote are the issues to address.