The Nation Newspaper

Category: Columnists

  • What next for diminished PDP?

    What next for diminished PDP?

    Sometime in 2010, on BBC HARDtalk programme, former president Olusegun Obasanjo argued that the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) could not control 28 states out of 36 states and still lose the presidential election of 2007. Asked whether such dominance was ethical, he shot back: “Should the PDP go and tell the electorate not to vote for the ruling party? Asked again whether it was not tantamount to turning Nigeria into a one-party state, the former president deadpanned: “What is wrong with that?” So far, Chief Obasanjo has restrained himself from condemning the dominance of the current ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), and has not said a word, at least publicly, on whether the 27 states controlled by the APC after some defections risked turning Nigeria into a one-party state. He is unlikely to say anything in that regard, lest they prosecutorially play the tape of his interview to him. He may be sanctimonious; but it is uncertain he is also hypocritical.

    By the last count, the ruling All Progressives Congress boasts of ruling 27 states, with a distinct possibility of bagging a few more, perhaps two or three in the weeks ahead. And so the once dominant PDP of yesteryears has become the Lilliputian of today: diminished, battered, disoriented and, for the first time since 1999 when it first won high office, in danger of asphyxiation. It had weathered many storms, most of them self-inflicted, and fought many battles with the stoutheartedness befitting a Leviathan. But victory after victory had dulled its senses of anticipation and awareness of danger. Proud, irascible and inured to reality, its muscles beginning to atrophy, it has now lost both the skill and will to fight. And when its complacency made it vulnerable to dangers of all kinds and predators of all hues, the adaptability needed to save it from destruction was sadly lacking. It is now left with only six states, but is likely to lose two to the APC in the coming weeks.

    The PDP never acquired the skill to respond imaginatively to adversity. It was always dilatory. In 2007 when it sensed its hold on the polity weakening, it made recourse to a rigged election unequalled in the annals of Nigerian elections. Nevertheless it tenaciously held on to power for another eight uneventful and crippling years. At the end, assailed on every side by the opposition and buffeted by economic downturn, and with no one in their leadership able to marshal the troops and imbue them with the right tactics, it collapsed under the weight of its own contradictions in 2015. If in 16 years since 1999 it could not produce a generation of brilliant and imaginative leaders to slow its attenuation, it has fared much worse since it lost office in producing tactical fighters who could imagine the future and respond to it adequately. Their loss in 2015 led them to desperate and tactless measures instead of the measured and patient response that should lead them to sacrifice one next election in order to gain many elections thereafter, not to talk of inspiring them to rebuild and reform their party instead of the mindless preoccupation with the present that led them to ruin.

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    Gluttons for punishment, and unwilling to learn from history, they again approached the 2019 electoral debacle with hired gunfighters, chief among whom was the redoubtable former vice president Atiku Abubakar, a man so obsessed with today that he heartily cursed tomorrow. There would be no reforms and no rebuilding, and there was to be no real introspection to discover what part of their electoral culture made them susceptible to constant failures. They, therefore, staggered into the 2023 presidential poll hiring the same inflexible champion; only this time, he was even more desperate, less discerning, and more prone to simple but costly mistakes. The war of attrition had taken its toll on the former behemoth, and it had become shorn of tacticians, philosophers, and the kind of roughnecks like former Rivers governor Nyesom Wike guilefully adapted to Nigeria’s bare-knuckle electoral fights. Now effectively split into two main factions, and degraded by the APC, political circumstances and self-induced crises, it has completely lost its composure and has been reduced into making plaintive appeals to the United States and the European Union to save Nigerian democracy.

    For the PDP, the 2027 election is lost. It should reconcile itself with that sombre reality. It will be lucky, if not foolish, to try to present a presidential candidate when it cannot even legally present a governorship candidate. For there is clearly no consensus between the two factions of the party regarding which camp has the legitimate right in the eyes of the law to sign a candidate’s election forms. It is unlikely that in the next few weeks it can reach that consensus or unite its warring factions. After it officially lost Rivers State to the APC last week, one of its factional chairmen, Abdurahman Tukur, sarcastically and despondently wished Governor Siminalayi Fubara good luck. It has reached such depths of despair today that it has lost the will to fight. As they lose more states and lawmakers to the ruling party, their economic fortunes will continue to dwindle until they are drained of every pint of blood in their veins. Oyo State’s governor Seyi Makinde had tried a last-ditch attempt to rally the troops in the November 15 Ibadan convention. As predicted, that rally miscarried, and with it the party’s last hope. With no messiah left to rally anyone, and with nearly all its troops deserting to the enemy, the PDP may be shouting its last hurrah.

    After the 2019 election debacle, the party still had the services of Mr Wike to carry the party’s burden and soldier on. Today, there is no one to carry the burden or even think for the party. Mr Wike is too triumphant and vindicated to care what happens to the party, despite his rhetorical feints and dribbles about principles and practices of partisan politics. Ensconced in the ruling APC where he is treated with Byzantine splendour, he cannot be of any help to the sinking PDP. After Mr Makinde organised the Ibadan PDP convention by sheer will and humongous resources, he has become so deflated and exhausted that no air is left in his lungs, let alone be able to exhale about the future or romanticise the past. Former party chairman Umar Damagum is relieved that he had passed the poisoned chalice to the luckless Kabiru Turaki before the party imploded. He will make sermons and offer prayers for the party on the sidelines, and will resist every attempt to drag him back into a fight he neither chose nor had the skills to fight. Bauchi’s previously talkative governor and chair of the PDP Governors’ Forum, Bala Mohammed, now speak in dulcet tones. The frenetic pace of events in the party was too much for him to cope with, and has lost interest in taming the fractious factions and leaders of the party.

    The PDP’s only hope is to come to terms with the task it had avoided for so long when signs of distress began manifesting in the party in 2013-2014. News of its impending demise may be exaggerated, but it will likely go extinct if it persists in its fooleries, or if, like former Osun State governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, it continues to blame President Tinubu and the APC for its troubles. While it really needs to demonstrate a willingness to fight for its survival, it should beware of reposing hope in messianic intervention to vivify their party. Unfortunately, nature rarely gifts the indolent the reward which PDP leaders expect. After all, the APC is unlikely to implode now, regardless of how much the PDP wishes it. So, if the PDP can get a trusted and gifted organiser in their ranks, they may yet find a straw to clutch. That unusual leader must focus on nothing else for the next few years but reform, and rebuilding and remaking the party. At his command, they will not only refine their platform and reinvigorate the party with the right and inspiring philosophy, they will perhaps give themselves time to heal.  

  • Dominant APC waits with bated breath

    Dominant APC waits with bated breath

    Once set in motion, the defections begun months ago to the All Progressives Congress (APC) have become almost unstoppable, an avalanche even. It is not inevitable that a ruling party can withstand divisions simply because it is in office, but after the APC won the third presidential election in a row, and sent opposition parties reeling, the party seemed impregnable to storms. That impregnability has attracted defectors of all kinds, causing the party to grow in weight and gravitas in inverse proportion to the despair afflicting the opposition. The one-way defections will continue apace, though the party is now almost filled to saturation. What should worry the party, however, is not whether it has room for more defections or whether it is nearing the end of its carrying capacity. Indeed, the party may already be unnerved by the almost sepulchral silence in the opposition save occasional eruptions of fiery denunciations over one policy flaw or another misstep by the administration.

    Convinced that it has become infeasible to defeat the APC by the pure art or even science of balloting, the opposition has retreated into its shell to store energy and assume a strike position. There is euphoria in the APC, though now tethered by a strange and uncomfortable feeling of anxiety. And conversely, there is despondency in the opposition mitigated by the fact that they have nothing to lose. So, the now clearly dominant and unassailable ruling party must wait with bated breath to see what other weapons the opposition parties have in their armamentarium. The ruling party knows by experience that the opposition are in possession of lethal weapons, for before it won the 2015 elections and assumed office, the APC also wielded deadly weapons and was unabashed in deploying them with fury.

    It is not yet known whether the opposition will be an agglomeration of the country’s main opposition parties, but it will not be just the PDP alone. Regardless of how many they are, the APC will worry whether the enemy will fight as one hobgoblin or on many fronts. Should the opposition choose to fight as one man, they might do a lot of damage, having demonstrated how nasty and skewering they can be. If they choose to fight individually and separately, the APC will worry about fighting on many fronts, wondering just how well they can fence off their enemies. The first accusation the opposition is broadcasting everywhere is that the APC is at fundamentally antidemocratic and determined to reverse democratic gains and render Nigeria a one-party state. The campaign will resonate with many people if the ruling party can’t find a bigger and more convincing argument to deflect the hooey.

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    Fortunately for the APC, and despite former Kaduna State governor Nasir el-Rufai’s mendacities, the opposition will be unable to deploy the religious argument as they did during the 2023 polls. Mallam el-Rufai, now a cipher in the ADC, has tried to both associate with and amplify the argument that the Bola Tinubu administration had caved in to the Christian lobby and filled the higher echelons of government with Christians to the detriment of Muslims. That religious campaign is unlikely to gain traction, not even if it is decked in regional colours. The APC is of course not a pushover in trench warfare, especially if that warfare becomes messy and bloody. Indeed, the ruling party may already have an inkling into what the opposition parties are planning, and just how deep they will plumb to find the filth they need to bespatter the enemy. If the APC is worried, it has done its best so far to conceal that anxiety. But how long it can keep its composure will be known when the campaigns hot up and turn nasty.

    From all indications, the opposition will not train their guns on the APC as a party, for the party, as a result of recent defections, is much stronger than it has ever been. Instead, they will face the president squarely. They will bring out their heavy guns, believing that once they destabilise and rob him of his confidence, the job of unseating him and the ruling party would be easier. One stone, they seem to think, would kill two birds. They will go through his INEC filings with a fine-tooth comb once again, and they will go through his records. The slightest inconsistency will be sufficient for them to deploy to maximum advantage. They will not even mind half-truths. The APC may have run rings round the opposition, and has done it with great aplomb, but what they will need to pay particular attention to are the weapons the opposition will deploy against the president, not against the party. The winner would be the one who had anticipated the other more adroitly, and had prepared, like a chess player, answers to puzzles yet to be raised. And if all else fails, why, they will try the often gory terrorism/kidnapping ploy regardless of the censorious gaze of the Americans.

  • Benin Republic demons

    Benin Republic demons

    Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger Republic have remained hostile to Nigeria because of its opposition to the overthrow of democracy in the three French-speaking West African countries. Had last Sunday’s coup attempt in Benin Republic led by Lt. Col. Pascal Tigri succeeded, Nigeria would have been ringed by military juntas at a time when political polarisation and harsh economic conditions in recent months have led to campaigns for the overthrow of democracy. It was, therefore, a terrible misreading of the coup plot in Benin to suggest that Nigeria was doing French bidding by helping President Patrice Talon quell the Tigri-led rebellion moments after the coup unfolded in Cotonou. The intervention was also self-preservation for Nigeria.

    The fascination with coups in the region is depressing. Analysts have suggested that the antidote to coup is good governance and political freedoms. This is simplistic. There are many countries in the world battling with economic headwinds and incompetent governments which have not been bitten by the coup malady. The Niger Republic coup preempted the now deposed President Mohamed Bazoum in 2023 from sacking the coup leader and head of the presidential guards, Abdourahamane Tchiani. Justifying the putsch on the grounds of insecurity and poor governance was inadmissible. Both Mali and Burkina Faso also anchored their coup on the need to economically and politically delink from France, in addition to insecurity. But both countries remain coup-prone and unstable, and the counterinsurgency operations in both countries have not fared better than before the coups.

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    Benin Republic’s economy had been growing at a healthy 7.5 percent before the coup. So the coupists cited insecurity in the northern part of the country and political repression highlighted by the attempt to impose the president’s favourite, Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni, as successor. Yet, Mr Talon was due to vacate office in April 2026 after the expiration of his tenure. What is incontestable is that everywhere a coup has taken place in West Africa, those countries had made little or no headway because soldiers are not trained to govern. There is nowhere, not even in Nigeria, where they have left sterling records. It is indeed tragic that citizens and social media influencers have been instigating some of the coups in West Africa, as they nearly succeeded in doing in Nigeria.

    Gunboat diplomacy is already mothballed, but it is clumsily being revived by US President Donald Trump. Nigeria did the right thing by waiting to be invited officially to intervene by the sitting government of Benin Republic. Nigeria could not intervene in Guinea-Bissau because both the sitting president and the army plotted the arranged coup. Should a coup take place in Nigeria, it is not only unlikely to succeed, it may spell doom for the country. To, therefore, suggest that because Nigeria had not solved its insecurity problem it had no business intervening elsewhere, is a disservice to the country and the region. Meanwhile, regarding the Benin coup, a few social media influencers who allegedly incited the rebellion have been declared wanted. They will be held accountable. 

  • North’s response to security emergency

    North’s response to security emergency

    The North has slipped into its darkest period. It faces an existential threat, with no end in sight to the mortal danger. The magnitude of the crisis is proportional to its geographical vastness.

    The regional challenge is Nigeria’s problem. It has also sent the wrong signal to the international community, denting the image of Nigeria.

    Towns and villages are in panic. Schools are attacked and pupils and teachers are taken into captivity. Churches are unsafe. Palaces are invaded and monarchs also abducted. Socio-economic activities are disrupted.

    Who are these troublers of the peace?

    The man who saw tomorrow, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, introduced free education and non-discriminating scholarship scheme in the old Western Region. He warned the feudal lords and aristocrats up the River Niger that neglected children would not allow those of the powerful to have rest of mind. Was the late sage not right, after all? Has his prediction not come true?

    Awolowo envisioned a Nigeria that would become truly independent through comprehensive economic policies, free education for all, massive industrialisation, and an unbiased protection of the rights of minority groups.

    Even though it was obvious that the one who wanted to gift a cloth was himself well dressed, the “powerful” elite of the North resisted his plans. While the Western Region leapfrogged in several developmental areas, the North was all motion without movement. Its masses were mostly uneducated.

    In the region, education was like a privilege, not a right, as Awolowo advocated. It was not too surprising that some people came up in the North to declare that education is sacrilege. The proponents of such horrendous ignorance might have found allies from outside the country, foreign enemies who wanted to destroy the nation’s peace and development. Yes, they exist. A nation does not wage a war against itself without the help of external forces that cash in on the weaknesses of the people within.

    A lot of people are oblivious that many developed countries envy Nigeria so much that they are always unhappy to see it make progress. The major reason is that they fear Nigeria would become Africa’s power house that would prevent the external manipulators from getting whatever they want from the continent at the detriment of the people. There are also the economic factors. Many other countries covet Nigeria’s array of rare minerals for their own development. They find it cheaper to use mercenaries to steal the resources than tread the legal business route. The foreign manipulators have designed – and continue to design – destabilising agenda for Nigeria to always writhe in crises.

    There are also concerns about spies and collaborators within communities. There are also concerns about limited intelligence gathering. Yet, bandits still have their way in some areas, despite the fact that the communities and security agencies have prior knowledge of impending onslaughts by the agents of the devil.

    Vocal voices in the North seem to have a different perceptive about the war against banditry. Why are they pacifying bandits? Why are they calling for negotiations with terrorists? Why ask for budgetary allocations to them? What is the basis for suggesting amnesty for terror gangs?

    Those advocating amnesty for bandits argue that terrorists deserve the same gesture given to the Southsouth agitators. But the argument is weak because their struggles and styles are not the same. Niger Delta militants only focus on economic sabotage, destroying oil pipelines and other facilities. They never kidnapped for ransom. They never attacked communities, schools, churches, mosques, and soft targets. The militants were identifiable and their leaders are known. Their agitations were clear: spend part of the money made fom the oil in the region to develop it, and stop environmental degradation.

    If negotiators or intermediaries between the Boko Haram sect and the government or families of kidnapped victims are known – because they conduct negotiations with them – then, is the problem not half-solved? Why is it difficult to arrest many of the terrorists and bring them to justice since the negotiators know the hiding places of the terror gangs in the tick forests to the extent that, in the view of some top people, can withstand bombing?

    Observers, therefore, ask: is the North ready to fight and win the terror war? If the bloc geo-political zones of the Northwest, the Northeast, and the Northcentral really wanted to liberate their people from insurgency, would their leaders continue to fold their arms?

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    It is important, first and foremost, for Northern leaders, the elite, the traditional rulers, religious icons, intellectuals, the mafias of Kaduna, Kano, and Sokoto, youths, and the residents to collectively resolve to say NO to the current nonsense.

    Regional response to the security emergency is critical to halting insurgency, which has become financially profitable to the perpetrators. It is evident that the North is waging a war against itself because there is no evidence that the terrorists are from the southern part of the country.

    Violent extremism in the North is not new. Zango Kataf riots and Maitasine uprising left in their wake unimaginable death tolls that called to question the value placed on the human life and peaceful co-existence.

    Insurgency has been variously linked with poverty, unemployment, squalor, and neglect. Those who hold this view draw attention to the fact that kinetic operations without the human approach are grossly insufficient for resolving the complex issues.

    While there could be some truths in these attributions, they also raise some questions. Who has marginalised or neglected the North that had dominated the national leadership for the greater part of 65 years of Nigeria’s nationhood?

    Also, judging by the sophisticated weapons in the hands of these “poor and jobless” terrorists and how the abductees are kept for days and sustained, sometimes by food items, medical aids and even midwives in some areas, it would be realised that sponsors of terror gangs are wealthy people.

    In the North, Islamisation should not be a clear danger to the vast and diverse communities, if there is a consciousness that the religious rights of those who choose to differ should be upheld with great understanding. This would be a factor in the creation of an atmosphere of mutual tolerance and peaceful coexistence.

    But religion seems to be out of place in some instances as the tools of insurgency in the ravaged areas are not associated with religious discrimination. This is because Muslims, Christians, and even pagans are targets.

    Governors can play their role in creatively securing their states by deploying resources, which have now increased due to the huge sum accruing to the states from the Federation Account.

    Today, the Southwest regional outfit, Amotekun, is the legacy of the late Rotimi Akeredolu (SAN), former governor of Ondo State, who mobilised his colleagues in the region to beef up security in Yoruba land.

    In Oyo State, Governor Seyi Makinde has managed to solve the farmer-herder crisis. The porous boundaries are an issue which he has also been tackling through the proper deployment of security agencies. Also, former Ekiti State Governor Ayodele Fayose mobilised to ward off the threats.

    It took northern governors a while to collectively respond to the security threats in their region, despite the fact that more northerners are the victims of horror. But it was not until their Southwest counterparts rose to the occasion that they woke up from their slumber. Southern governors are taking pre-emptive measures; Northern governors are searching for a cure.

    Acknowledging that the region is facing a critical hazard and risk, the northern governors realised that the escape route is thin. Unlike some northern icons trying to bully the Federal Government and attack President Bola Ahmed Tinubu over the rising violence, the Southwest governors embraced the reality that the anti-terror war is a collective responsibility that must involve the Federal Government, sub-national units, security agencies, and community resources.

    The governors of the North have called for the suspension of mining in the North. Why? The mining activities are clearly illegal. It is not peculiar to Nigeria. Indeed, there appears to be a relationship between unauthorised mining and terrorist financing, which can only be ignored at national peril.

    President Tinubu had once observed that the resources from illegal mining were being hijacked by terrorist groups in exchange for foreign cash, which was used to buy arms and ammunition. Thus, apart from kidnapping fellow bengs, huge resources are also kidnapped or captured, and billions of dollars that governments should use to fund education, health care, and other social services are exploited by terrorists to buy weapons and perpetuate violence against the people.

    Whistleblowers of northern origin should come to the rescue. They owe the region a candid duty of intelligence gathering in assisting security agencies to arrest and prosecute the public enemies.

    Northern states should brace up for state police. It is critical to security at the state and local government levels.

    How would it be funded? The governors should anticipate an imminent legislative amendment that will pave the way for the multi-layer policing structure. Governors now give more money to do that. It should be borne in mind that state police would be corrupt if it is not well funded, like the current national policing structure.

    Training is key. It takes time to wean the proposed state police for the purpose of filling the security void at the state level.

    How could this be done to meet the requirements of the security emergency?

    Northern elite must stand before the mirror and do an honest self-assessment. What do they want the region to look like in the next five to 10 years, judging by all that has happened in the last 10 years? Will life be better or get worse? Will there be pervasive peace or increased instability? A stitch in time saves nine.

    While many northerners have been running away from their homes to other places considered safer, the criminals who terrorise the region multiply. The known allies of the terrorists, some of whom have been named and shamed outside Nigeria behave like untouchables. Many of them pretend to be religious leaders, but the insignia on their character clearly spells Satanism. The North must urgently embrace developmental religion and fight destructive practices. The latter has never given the region a good name. Across the world, nations with majority Muslims have low rates of corruption and poverty. The North should ask why the situation is different across the region. It is time to make amends. Actions speak louder than words.

  • Sympathy for IDPs

    Sympathy for IDPs

    One of the most cutting taunts in Nigerian politics right now is to be referred to as an Internally Displaced Politician (IDP). That is the tag that has been hung around the necks of some of the leading lights of the opposition African Democratic congress (ADC).

    Among the most prominent of this new species is former Vice President Atiku Abubakar who left the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with so much hype, but is yet to formally join the over-inflated platform that we were all told was going to topple the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and send President Bola Tinubu back to Lagos in a hurry.

    In this group belongs the fire-spitting former governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, who regular bulletins on X have somehow lost their earlier menace. Now he mournfully bewails the calamity that awaits Nigerian democracy if the president is allowed to cruise to victory in two years’ time.

    In the meantime, he’s floating around in political purgatory – somewhere between the Social Democratic Party (SDP) where he has received an icy welcome and his ADC promised land, trying to conjure some sort of magic potion that would banish Tinubu and deliver him from irrelevance.

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    Part of this band is a certain Rotimi Amaechi, one-time Minister of Transportation who briefly flirted with something called the All Democratic Alliance (ADA). It was a brief and spectacular flop. The former governor of Rivers State who still fancies himself something of a political lion has been huffing and puffing – wondering why Nigerians haven’t revolted against the government of the day.

    When that trick didn’t work he began moaning about hunger. Again, not too many were sympathetic given his ample midriff.

    And then there’s Peter Obi who seems to be doing his level best not to jump into the ADC bed and whilst still pretending to be a member of the troubled Labour Party (LP).

    You really have to feel for the politically homeless are they trun round and round in circles not having the courage of their convictions but always willing to believe that their accommodation problems are caused by the all-powerful occupant of Aso Rock – and not by their own dithering.

  • Osun APC, Tinubu’s hand and the Ides of March

    Osun APC, Tinubu’s hand and the Ides of March

    Ahead of the 2026 Osun governorship election, it is incontrovertible that a consensus candidate has been chosen for the All Progressives Congress (APC). He is Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO).

    While Oyebamiji’s emergence signals a strong, focused start for the APC, it might be interpreted – or perhaps, misinterpreted – that the disqualification of seven out of nine aspirants during the December 5, 2025, screening exercise is, without doubt, an indication of a wobbly institutional mechanism within the party. A revamp of the procedure used is worth undertaking to prevent a recurrence. A repetition should be prevented, going forward, to lessen the possibility of disaffection, which could lead to unintended consequences. As the Good Book warns, “… lead us not into temptation” (Matthew 6:13).

    We must account for personal sensitivities, commitments, and bruised egos. These are human beings, not robots. Every serious aspirant has gone the extra mile in pursuit of what he or she perceived as a legitimate ambition. Consequently, the APC must initiate a damage control act – and do so very urgently and unpretentiously!

    One particularly contested line of reasoning centres on the importance of a leader’s strong mandate in the governance structure. To this end, one must commend the party’s titular leader for using his influence as a soothing balm. So, the ‘kì-í-gbó-kì-í-gbà, (I-no-go-gree) aspirants who wear their egos on their sleeves should go and sit down! Yes, they should find something else to do!

    But what are the consequences of President Bola Tinubu’s endorsement of a consensus APC candidate? The answer is clear: it will be an overwhelmingly positive development for the party, mainly by consolidating power and silencing internal dissent. The sheer weight of a presidential intervention means those who had hitherto been contemplating leaving the party will no longer have the courage to do so – after all, who would dare challenge a decision backed by the ultimate power brokers?

    It will therefore be in the best interest of the less influential aspirants to quickly accept their fate and move on. If one or two juicy appointments, or contracts, come their way, they should swiftly accept and thank God. To do otherwise is to risk incurring the wrath of Aso Rock – and that’ll not be too good to contemplate!

    But that’s not all; and that’s not where I am headed! The governorship election in Osun is likely to be a three-way horse race and the possibility of a runoff cannot be discarded. For its own good, Osun APC must go into the race, which is just months away, as a united front. Complacency will be dangerous to the party. Nothing must be taken for granted in the twists and turns of a very unpredictable political situation in a politically savvy state.

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    Beyond all efforts, there must be intellectual humility and moral circumspection in the current sequence of events. To put it succinctly, the victor must demonstrate profound magnanimity. He must embrace genuine unity over triumph. It is to the eternal glory of Umaru Yar’Adua that he accepted that there were flaws in the process that threw him up as Nigeria’s 13th president and Head of State. He said so publicly and started to make amends, and Nigerians forgave him, even before death took him away.

    For Osun APC to stand strong against any challenges that might come its way, unity is paramount. The most critical lesson from the 2022 defeat was the devastating cost of internal wrangling, which, if repeated, guarantees loss of victory at the polls. Since only a fool gets burnt twice by the same fire, the party must be prepared to rise up against internal discord and destructive rivalries, for no organization thrives or wins a battle where there is division. A seed does not bear fruit unless it is rooted deep into the ground. Unity is not optional! It is foundational!

    In the Yoruba wisdom, “Kàkà kí eku má je sèsé, á á fi se àwàdànù” (Rather than the rat not eating the hard beans, it will waste it). A conciliation strategy is very key for the Tajudeen Lawal-led Osun APC, for some of the disaffected have influence in the local governments and the areas of contagion. The disaffected can, if not pacified, exact revenge, and that may be too toxic for the overall health of the party. The meaningful hymn is that the consensus candidate will be reconciling from a position of undeniable strength. It is left for those contacted to choose between the carrot of inclusion and the stick of isolation.

    A good historical precedent is the outcome of the contentious primary election of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in 1992. Angered by what they thought was imposition, the members revolted, and the party imploded, which ultimately led to the election of Sir Michael Otedola as the Governor of Lagos State. No betting man could have thought in his wildest dreams that any National Republican Convention (NRC) candidate would have come close to being elected as the Governor of Lagos State, not even in a Nollywood movie.

    Otedola won because of a mass rejection within the rank and file of the SDP. So, APC would be well-advised to learn the critical lessons from the SDP’s debacle of 1992. History does not repeat itself. The problem is that human beings do not learn the lessons of history. At a time like this, Osun APC must save itself from a potential debacle. The preponderance of the Osun electorate is at the moment in a state of mind akin to what the late Bola Ige famously described as ‘siddon look’. There is everything to play for, and complacency will be ill-advised.

    Oyebamiji has to act with a strategic focus. First, he must, without hesitation, initiate a genuine peace accord with the disaffected to prevent the possibility of mutually assured destruction (MAD). Second, he must have a clear, effective media strategy to rally the support base of the unhappy members and, simultaneously, the electorate of the state around a programme offering a pro-people alternative to the present Dance-a-Thon contraption in the state. The media strategy must provide the medium to present the APC candidate as the champion of a hard-pressed people, suffering from an economic downturn and disenchantment.

    This means a strategic, data-driven, and creative media thrust is vital for the consensus candidate, replicating the successful model recently deployed by the APC in Ekiti State. That instance not only ensured immediate stability but also allowed the party to swiftly pivot and focus its energies, in earnest, on the core objective: rescuing Ekitis from the doldrums of degradation.

    The candidate must tailor the media message to specific focus groups across the three senatorial districts and the thirty local government areas (plus one area office). There cannot be a universal media campaign. The message must directly address the demographic bases of voter registration and be customized to ensure a maximum turnout. Furthermore, the choice of medium is key; the candidate has to work out which one will convey the message to maximum effect.

    Again, to dig up a Yoruba aphorism, Èhìnkùlé lòtá wà, inú ilé laseni ńgbé” (The enemy lives in the backyard, while the evil doer lives within the house). Those who do not – and will not – leave the party could be more dangerous operating as a fifth column to undermine the party from within. Beware of the Ides of March! Julius Caesar ignored the forewarning about the Ides and the enemies within to his immortal peril!

    May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!

  • Recipe for paralysis

    Recipe for paralysis

    Those who make peaceful changes impossible always make violent changes inevitable. Nigeria‘s World Cup campaign was a fiasco even with browbeating tactics employed by the hierarchy of the supervisors to steal the thunder of the NFF at the concluded Africa Playoffs for the 2026 World Cup competition. The supervisors ran the errands associated with the playoffs including having to pay the players’, coaches’, officials’ and backroom staff’s outstanding entitlements arising from the team’s refusal to train ahead of the last playoff against the Democratic Republic of Congo.

    The supervisors and their lackeys sang, dance and shouted while pumping the air with punches which threatened to pull down the roof top. In fact, you could hear a background voice assuring listening to the noise from their drumbeats of personal aggrandisement that the federation won’t owe the contingent any form of outstanding allowances after Nigeria beat ‘customer’ Gabon 4-0. They had forgotten that Nigeria had never lost to Gabon, making the 4-0 defeat a routine than an achievement to be celebrated with such maddening displays.

    Behold, last week, like a thief at night the story leaked that Super Eagles manager, Eric Chelle was still being owed two months wages. No concrete denial has been made by those who did the payment to say he had been paid upfront as is the practice with such payments in the past or that mode of payment has been abolished.

    “According to a top @NatSportsComm official, speaking off the record, @NGSuperEagles head coach Eric Chelle is certainly owed wages. But the source says that it is TWO months and not three. “We have spoken to him and the money is going to be paid very shortly.”

    “According to this highly-ranked official, Chelle had been paid regularly since February, until things came unstuck around June/July. That was resolved until the current arrears, which he says is for “September and October.”

    “As for his bonuses, “that is an @thenff matter,” the source said. “They are responsible for that.”

    *But is this state of affairs good enough, for #Nigeria, that we repeatedly owe @NGSuperEagles coaches  wages? Is this not a shame and an embarrassment for the country? Nigerians, over to you…,” foremost Nigerian journalist Osasu Obayiuwana wrote on his social media handle, X.

    Pray, isn’t this debt story associated with Chelle’s wages another recipe for paralysis? Over time when such ill wind of debts emerges from the evil forest in the media, Nigeria loses the games. I ask, who should we ask if Chelle’s wages have been paid when those who ought to ask such questions are the ones doing the payment themselves? Nigeria, we hail thee …

    Don’t Nigerians deserve to know how much Chelle earns monthly? It isn’t enough for rumour mill to whisper that Chelle goes home with $55,000 monthly with the alibi that he pays his assistance out of the huge cash.  I’m not English but I know how much Thomas Tuchel, the England manager earns in his 18 months contract. Tuchel for the records is German. Ditto Carlo Ancelotti, the Italian manager who will bark out instructions to Samba Boyz of Brazil at the 2020 World Cup to be co-hosted by the United States (US), Canada and Mexico.

    Wait for it. Did they not say in the aftermath of the show of shame in Morocco mid-November that Mr. President graciously released to them N12 billion to offset all the debts associated with the team? If yes, how come they couldn’t pay Chelle’s wages for September and October with their allocations in mid-November whilst in Morocco? How about the money that would have been paid to the coaches, players, backroom staff and team officials had Nigeria beaten DR Congo in the final Africa Playoffs game on November 16, in Morocco? Couldn’t that money had been used to settle wages owed Chelle at the end of November?

    Well, it is good to note that Chelle would be paid soon. It is also worthy to state here that we have given the coach the alibi he needs when things go awry. What one finds very interesting is that nobody is talking about Nigeria lifting the trophy on January 18, 2026 unlike in the past. In fact, Chelle’s employers have given him a semi-final target at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations. They are also excited with the deliberate attempt by Chelle to rebuild a new squad, although the bulk of the team, especially the team’s spine would be populated by the experienced players.

    One of the debutants is 22 years old Salim Fago Lawal, a center forward, playing for Croatia-based side NK Istra 1961, who had a solid 2025 season, scoring 4 goals and providing 2 assists in 16 appearances at the SuperSport HNL (Croatian top league) and Cup combined by late 2025.

    He was part of the Nigeria’s U-20 Flying Eagles World Cup squad in Argentina in 2023. He played 5 matches, scored 1 goal, 0 Assists, 0 Yellow cards.

    Tochukwu Nnadi is a 22 years old Nigerian footballer who plays as a midfielder for Zulte Waregem of the Belgian Second Division. Nnadi has so far played 15 matches, no goal, with six yellow cards and one red  card flashed at him. He played five matches for Nigeria’s Flying Eagles at the 2023 World Cup in 2023 Argentina, with no goal and no assist.

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    Ebenezer Akinsanmiro, a young Nigerian midfielder, played for Pisa SC on loan during the 2025-26 season (as of Aug 2025), making 11 appearances. He was previously on loan at Serie B side Sampdoria during 2024-25, scored 1 goal in 35 appearances. He is 21 years old.

    Akinsanmiro started playing professionally for Remo Stars in 2020. He was part of the team that gained promotion from the Nigeria National League to the Nigeria Professional Football League at the end of the 2020–21 season.

    There is also Usman Mohammed (born 1994), a Nigerian midfielder, plays for Israeli club Ironi Tiberias, making 11 appearances and scoring 1 goal. He missed two games. He won Olympic Bronze Medal with the Nigeria’s U-23 squad in 2016 in Brazil.

    23-year-old Blackburn Rovers defender Ryan Alebiosu recently completed his nationality switch from England to Nigeria. Born in London, Alebiosu started his career with Arsenal, where he spent over a decade, signing his first professional contract with the London club in 2020, although his first taste of senior professional football came during a loan spell with Crewe Alexandra.

    He received his first call up to the Super Eagles when he was named in a 54-strong provisional squad for the Africa Cup of Nations last week.

    My worries include the invitation extended to goalkeeper Uzoho and the fact that no domestic league player was considered good enough for the 28-man squad. Pity, our people never learn from history.

    27 years old Francis Uzoho plays for Cypriot First Division club Omonia Nicosia.  So far in the 2025-2026, he has made three appearances, conceded two goals, kept one clean sheet and had one yellow card flashed at him. One only hopes that invitation extended to Stanley Nwabali isn’t ill-advised.

    Sport is a big deal. It unites nations and enchants people. Besides, it has a global appeal, pulling fans and sponsors in a unique force that impacts positively on businesses-and health. These positives can best be evaluated when the government has a template that makes it possible for businesses and philanthropists to key into the nation’s vision for sports.

    Governments of sports-loving nations entice the businesses with relief packages, such as tax rebates on their investments in sports. Given sports’ global appeal, governments effectively utilise the platform as their public relations tool to change people’s perception of their entities.

  • Our Ayatollah has gone mad again? (1)

    Our Ayatollah has gone mad again? (1)

    After what must have, for him, been a memorable spell on the stage of public prominence as Director-General of the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) and later Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in the President Olusegun Obasanjo administration, Malam Nasir el’Rufai went on to serve as governor of Kaduna State for eight years between 2015 and 2023. Those years would easily rank among the most troubled, violence-ridden, blood-suffused, intolerant and intemperate in the history of the State.

    Having been continually in the public eye as an occupant of various high offices for an unbroken period of no less than two decades, power has understandably become addictive for Nasir. Just out of public office for the two and a half years of the Tinubu administration, el’Rufai’s constitution is evidently still being wracked by tormenting withdrawal symptoms. He is bitter. He feels slighted. ‘Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned’, intoned the bard.

    Perhaps what irked the closet Ayatollah most was the manner of his seemingly ignominious exclusion from the present club of APC ministerial power elite. President Tinubu had nominated him for a ministerial appointment. He accepted. This was a Tinubu he had openly denigrated, insolently insulted and conspiratorially undermined. But he accepted to be a minister in his government. Power addiction.

    His name was forwarded to the Senate along with others for legislative confirmation. The Senators would most likely have given him the nod. But no, the security report said. Ayatollah was unfit for public office. And his bosom friend and fellow Fulani, Nuhu Ribadu, was NSA? He was dropped. The cut ran deep. The wound still bleeds. On television show circuits. In vitriolic outbursts on the Hausa Service of the BBC. In incendiary newspaper interviews. Then there were rumours of an alleged foiled coup attempt. Inexplicably, Ayatollah laid low for some time. Gradually he is regaining his mojo.

    This week, Nasir shared on his Facebook page an article by one Mohammed Bello Doka titled, ‘Is Tinubu waging a quiet war on the Muslim North – Or is it all a coincidence?’ It was an inflammatory piece deliberately designed to instigate the Muslim North against the Tinubu administration and draw a wedge between northern Christians and Muslims. Some language experts who have dissected the purported Bello Doka piece insist that the voice is that of Jacob but the hand, that of Esau.

    They insist that the caustic style and belligerent temper is that of Ayatollah. The fear of treasonable felony is surely the beginning of wisdom. Thus, Ayatollah ‘s pseudonymous retreat. Thank God, there are limits to reckless hubris, even for our fearless stormy petrel.

    Here, the opening of the piece shared by el’Rufai: “Two years after President Bola Tinubu rose to power on the back of a controversial Muslim-Muslim ticket, a growing unease is spreading across Northern Nigeria. The same region that absorbed political fire, international criticism, and domestic outrage to deliver victory in 2023 is now asking an uncomfortable question: has the pact been broken?”.

    The article continues, “One after another, key Muslim Northern figures exited strategic positions – party leadership, defence, security oversight – often replaced by Northern Christians, Middle Belt figures, or Southern allies”.

    First, no single region can solely produce the President of Nigeria. The constitution has been deliberately crafted in such a manner that the winner in a presidential election must have not just the highest number of votes but must score no less than 25% of the votes cast in each of at least no less than two-thirds of the 36 states and the FCT. He must have a pan- Nigeria spread of votes. True, the Muslim North played a critical role in President Tinubu’s 2023 electoral victory.

    But then Alhaji Atiku Abubakar ‘s Northern strategy also worked considerably. The Waziri Adamawa and PDP candidate won in the core Northern states of Kaduna, Katsina, Bauchi, Sokoto, Gombe, Adamawa, Yobe, Jigawa, Kebbi and Taraba states. However, Tinubu won in Borno, Jigawa and Zamfara States in the core North while also winning in Kogi, Niger and Kwara in the North Central. To the credit of the far North, even where Tinubu did not win, he came a close second and hauled a substantially higher number of votes in Kano, where Rabiu Kwankwanso won, than Atiku did. All these were critical factors in Tinubu’s electoral triumph and I am unaware that anyone in Tinubu’s camp denies this.

    But the obverse side of the coin is that until Tinubu teamed up with Buhari in 2015, the latter’s consistent haul of over 12 million votes did not give him victory in three successive elections in 2003, 2007 and 2011. It was the additional votes of the Southwest in 2015 that gave Buhari the pan- Nigeria support he needed to win a national victory and this was repeated in 2019.

    In the latter part of the piece under consideration, the writer claims that “Southern voices declare openly that Muslim Northern votes are no longer decisive. Some cheer Northern discontent as politically irrelevant. Others openly frame 2027 as a Southern consolidation project”. This is sheer mischievous propaganda to pitch the far North against Tinubu and the South. The writer mentions no known names making such assertions. He attributes no sources except the feral jungle known as social media. In any case, did el’Rufai not do a well publicized memo to President Buhari insisting that the contributions of Tinubu and the Southwest to his electoral victory was grossly exaggerated?

    The article shared by el’Rufai claims that President Tinubu is removing ‘key Muslim Northern figures’ from ‘strategic positions’ and replacing them with ‘Northern Christians, Middle Belt figures or Southern allies’. The insinuation here is that an anti-Northern Muslim agenda is at play. Nothing could be more dishonest and mischievous. He cites as an example the National Chairmanship of the APC where Alhaji Umar Ganduje has been replaced by Professor Nentawe Yilwatda from Plateau State.

    But was religion the issue here? The position of National Chairman had long been zoned to the North -Central. Thus, when Ganduje from the Northwest replaced Alhaji Abdullahi Adamu from Nasarawa State in the North Central in 2023, there were sustained protests from the latter zone that this perceived injustice be redressed. This has been done with the emergence of Yilwatda. Why does this irk Nasir?

    Again, reference is made to the replacement of former Defence Minister, Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, by General Christopher Musa, a Christian from Southern Kaduna in the Middle Belt. Is the issue here religion or competence and performance? If the buck stops at the table of the President and the blame for worsening insecurity ultimately rests on him, can he be blamed for appointing a Defence Minister he believes can achieve the desired results? Is Nasir questioning the competence of General Musa or is the problem with the highly regarded General’s faith?

    In any case, why do the likes of el’Rufai accept Northern Christians as part of the North for population count and electoral purposes but are bitterly resentful when they are given key public office appointments, which are then described as an affront on the Muslim North?

    Again, the Mohammed Dikko piece shared by el’Rufai gives the impression that the insecurity and violence in the North started in the last two years under Tinubu. According to the writer, “Villages are emptied. Farms abandoned. Schools shut. Entire communities negotiating their survival with armed groups. In some states, local governments barely function beyond state capitals. Yet critics increasingly point to what they describe as a lukewarm presidential posture towards Northern insecurity…A single road project in Lagos is measured in trillions of Naira. The combined security votes of all 19 Northern governors do not approach that figure”.

    This is brazen incitement predicated on falsehood that should ordinarily attract the attention of the security agencies both to the writer and the publicist because of the latter’s prominent position in society. In the first place, insecurity in the North can be traced to the extra-judicial killing of Mohammed Yusuf, the founder of Boko Haram, while in police custody in 2009 and has steadily worsened since under successive governments.

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    Under Tinubu, funding for the military has increased substantially and onslaughts against terrorists and bandits have been intensified especially through precision airstrikes. Scores of well known notorious bandits’ leaders and hundreds of their fighters have been eliminated and this onslaught continues.

    Again, several governors have publicly stated that under Tinubu, allocation to states from the Federation Account has more than tripled. State governors including those from the North thus have considerable much more to spend on security to reinforce the significantly increased budgetary allocation to defence at the centre. The statement that ‘A single road project in Lagos is measured in trillions of Naira’ is preposterous blackmail. Nasir should be challenged to name one such road or else apologize for sharing false information.

    The Lagos -Calabar Coastal Highway, for instance, is planned to physically connect the western and south -eastern regions of Nigeria and passes through through 9 states – Ogun, Ondo, Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom States and ending in Calabar, Cross River State. The Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway extends from Sokoto through Kebbi, Niger and adjoining States and ultimately linking the Lagos -Calabar Coastal Road. Where does religion come in here except for those with a terroristic Ayatollah mindset like we know who?

    It is most laughable that Nasir can summon the temerity to share an article which states that “Equally troubling to many Northerners is the continued reliance on the same political middlemen to negotiate with bandits – negotiations that often end with cash payments, concessions and temporary…Who benefits? Does this approach pacify violence or institutionalize it?”. Luckily, we do not have to go too far for a response to Nasir. Let us resort to the ubiquitous internet which never sleeps or forgets.

    According to Wikipedia, “In December 2016, in an open interview the Kaduna State governor, Nasir Ahmed Musa el-Rufai, confessed to paying some Fulanis across the Sahel countries like Niger, Mali, Chad, Senegal and Cameroon, to stop killing Southern Kaduna indigenous due to grievances erupting from the killing of their cattles in the 2011 post election crisis in the state…In response to the above, the sitting senator representing Kaduna South Senatorial District, Danjuma Laah, said there was never a time in 2011 that Fulanis in those Sahel countries mentioned by the governor were killed with their cattle in the Southern Kaduna as the area is not a converging point for those countries and called el-Rufai ‘s claim a lie.

    “According to the Senator, “The Governor just invented this lie to make excuse for his imported murderous Fulani kindred to continue their extermination of our people and the occupation of our lands.”…In April 2021, el-Rufai made a turn-around and said anyone caught negotiating with bandits would be severely dealt with”.

  • Challenges to peace-building

    Challenges to peace-building

    Preamble

    The words of elders are words of wisdom. If they do not materialise in the morning they will surely materialize in the evening”.

    The above quotation is a Yoruba axiom that can only be faulted at one’s own peril. Now that reasoning seems to be finding its way back to Nigeria’s base of power especially in respect of insecurity problem and its possible solution, it becomes necessary to take a realistic recourse to that adage.

    The news that former President Goodluck Jonathan belatedly met with former President Olusegun Obasanjo in Abuja sometime to discuss the way out of the Boko Haram insurgency problem is a confirmation of that adage. Hitherto, sheer ego and whim of power had prevented that meeting even when sensible advice and suggestions were offered to the government by well-meaning Nigerians. Among such advice was that of His Eminence, Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar the Sultan of Sokoto.

    Voice of reason

    As far back as October 3, 2011, the Sultan of Sokoto and President-General, Nigerian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs (NSCIA), had delivered a lecture entitled ‘Islam and Peace Building in West Africa’ at Harvard University. When the lecture was published in this column thereafter, it was re-entitled ‘A Voice from Harvard’. In the 33 page lecture, His Eminence enumerated the causes and effects of violent crises in the West African sub region with particular reference to Nigeria. He blamed such crises on three major issues: (1) political struggle for supremacy between the elite and the poor masses (2) bad governance on the part of the ruling class and (3) primordial ethno-religious sentiments. The most prominent of these three issues is bad governance which engenders corruption, joblessness, poverty, exploitation, suspicion and general bitterness in the land. Three years after that lecture, Nigeria is still in rigmarole searching for a possible oasis in a self-inflicted wild desert.

    For the benefit of those who did not read it at that time the lecture is being brought here again because of its relevance and the possible solution it may proffer to the multifaceted problems confronting Nigeria. An excerpt from the lecture is as follows:

    Impression

    “….Many people (outside our country) consider Nigeria as a theatre of absurd conflicts and interminable crises.  They may be justified in holding this view; with the Jos crises festering for years, with post-election violence and suicide-bombings, it is difficult  to think otherwise.  When we consider Nigeria’s population of more than 150 million, half the population of West Africa, its over 250 ethnic and language groups, its regional and geo-political configurations, its landmass and its diversity in religion and culture, we may be constrained to reach different conclusions. Nigeria may, after all, be a paragon of stability which, as God Almighty has willed, shall undergo all the trials allotted it early enough in its national history.

    But in all fairness, systemic ethno-political and religious crises, like the ones we witnessed in recent years or are witnessing currently, do not have a long history in Nigeria.  They all began in the late 1980s, following the intense competition for power and influence especially among the western educated elite; the Kafanchan crisis of 1987, in Southern Kaduna, was quickly followed by the Zangon Kataf and other crises; all in the same vicinity.  The democratic dispensation, which began in 1999 also came with its own set of problems, the most visible being the Shari’ah crisis and the first Jos crisis which led to the declaration of state of emergency in Plateau State.

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    Primacy of politics

    But these crises, varied as they were, reveal the multi-dimensional nature of Nigeria as a political entity. We witness the primacy of politics in almost all these conflicts.  In the struggle for power and political supremacy as politicians exercise no restraint in aggravating the socio-religious and ethnic cleavages, which characterise the geo-politics of the Nigerian state.  It should not be forgotten that the second Jos crisis of November 2008 was also ignited by a botched Chairmanship election in Jos North Local Government.

    The second dimension to these crises, especially in Kaduna and Plateau States, is the indigene/settler dichotomy, which is yet to be addressed properly by the Nigerian state.  Many ethnic groups in these conflict areas see the other ethnic groups as foreigners who should not enjoy the full rights of bona fide residents.  Most of these disenfranchised Nigerians also happen to be Muslims.  However, those who oppose this dichotomy argue that these so-called settlers had spent more than two hundred years in the areas they reside.  Moreover, as Nigerian citizens, they have the full right to reside wherever they wish and pursue their legitimate business without let or hindrance.

    Afterall, they cannot be settlers in their own country.

    The third dimension of Nigeria’s ethno-religious crises is their potential to become a systematic national crisis.  When a person is killed in any of the areas of conflict, his co-religionists, especially in the cities react violently and begin to kill anyone they think is related to the killer(s).  This often triggers further reprisals from other parts of the country where victims come from.  It took a lot of effort by the Nigeria Inter-Religious Council (NIREC) which I co-chair, and other state authorities, to treat each crisis independently and reduce the risk of systemic reprisals.

    The fourth dimension of Nigeria’s crises is poor leadership and the bad governance usually associated with its management.  Many of those charged with authority in the states where these conflicts occur are also parties to the crises.  They make feeble efforts to control the violence and do so only when much of the damage has been done…

    “….The issue of poor leadership and bad governance also explains how the Boko Haram movement has been able to transform itself from a small Hijrah group in Yobe State, escaping from the uncertainties and contradictions of the Nigerian state, to a militant movement able to wreak havoc and destruction once provoked.  Those in authority were prepared to court the leaders of this group when it suited them and to trample on them like flies when they were no longer useful…However, the recent bombing of the United Nations Office in Abuja has introduced an international dimension to terrorist’s activities, a development, which is hitherto entirely new to Nigeria.

    The promise of dialogue

    “….When I became the Sultan of Sokoto in November 2006, some of the major problems I found on ground were the after-effects of the riots, especially in Kaduna, Jos and some parts of the North East as well as a disturbing atmosphere of mistrust, fear and hostility, especially between the leaderships of Nigeria’s two major religions: Islam and Christianity.

     To resolve these knotty issues, we chose the path of positive engagement, which we thought would engender meaningful discourse, improve communication and understanding and change the dynamics of our operating environment to that of trust and confidence…

    Role of NIREC

    “….The Nigeria Inter-Religious Council (NIREC) provided the right platform for this engagement. The Council, a product of Nigeria’s ethno-religious crises, was composed of 25 members each from the two religions and co-chaired by myself, in my capacity as the President-General of the Nigerian Supreme Council of Islamic Affairs, and the President of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN). The approach of NIREC was simple and practical. Firstly, we affirmed the sanctity of human life, Muslim and Christian, and insisted that anybody who takes the law into his hands, regardless of the circumstances, must bear the full legal consequences of his action.

    You cannot believe it, but despite the frequency of these disturbances, only a few people have ever been punished for perpetrating any act of violence. The masterminds go scot-free.

    Secondly, while appreciating the fact that we are required to look after the interest of our co-religionists, we must pay attention to the other dimensions of our conflicts. As many were preparing to declare a religious war in Jos, for example, we laboured hard to draw attention to the other dimensions of the crisis. It was a conflict between Muslims and Christians quite alright, but it was not a conflict between Islam and Christianity. When Nigeria’s President called for a parley among stakeholders, we made bold to declare the Jos crisis a political crisis. Thirdly, we adopted a tactical approach to conflict resolution. Whenever, there is a breakout of violence, we work together to restore law and order and ask the quarrelsome questions later. We take this approach to minimise loss of life and to ensure that the crisis is contained in the primary area it occurred.

    Also, we devised a quarterly meeting schedule that took us to all parts of the country. It was heartening to many to see us working together and preaching peaceful co-existence and religious harmony even in areas, which never registered an ethno-religious conflict.

    Recommendation

    I must point out that it was also our view that inter-faith action should transcend conflict resolution. For it to be effective, it must affect the life of the common man. NIREC floated the Nigeria Inter-Faith Action Association (NIFAA) to take up this challenge and NIFAA has been very active in the control of the dreaded tropical disease: Malaria. We also find that we must act together to address issues related to electoral reform, good governance and anti-corruption. I am also glad to state that the goodwill and understanding which these activities were able to generate, have given impetus to the development of inter-faith dialogue to a new level. I always remember, with happiness, the seminar organised by the CAN in April 2010, on ‘Knowing Your Muslim Neighbour’, where I presented a paper on the topic. The Nigerian Supreme Council of Islamic Affairs (NSCIA) gracefully reciprocated by inviting CAN members to its formal meeting in Kaduna, where the CAN representative gave a lecture on Islam in the eyes of a Christian and both Muslim and Christian scholars, gave inspiring responses on the scriptural basis of mutual co-existence. Despite serious setbacks in recent months, many of us remain committed to this positive engagement and to the promise that dialogue offers the resolution to Nigeria’s ethno-religious crises.

    Looking ahead

    ‘’…Understanding the multifarious nature of Nigeria’s ethno-religious crises should strengthen our resolve and determination to deploy all the energies and resources at our disposal to see to their resolution.  Our inability and reluctance to take meaningful action go to challenge not only our common humanity but also our self-worth.  It is therefore important for us to appreciate, first and foremost, the importance of consensus building within the polity, with a view to ameliorating the current state of political polarization in it.  The Nigerian political class must be able to speak and understand one another as well as to develop a minimum national agenda to chart the way forward.  The political class must also be able to open dialogue on a variety of national issues, including the perennial problem of power rotation and willingly enter into agreements that they can honour with dignity….

    Governance

    “….Also, governance at all levels must translate into tangible benefits for all Nigerians regardless of their ethnic and religious affiliation.  Nigeria has the resources to make life more pleasant for its people.  It is equally imperative to address the poverty problem as well as the needs of the youth population both in all the geo-political areas of the country.  In a situation where over 50 per cent of our population is jobless at less than 19 years of age, we are definitely sitting on a time bomb much deadlier than that of Boko Haram unless we take urgent action to defuse it….

    “….Furthermore, there should be renewed determination to address both the Jos and Boko Haram sectarian crises.  The Federal Government must take seriously its security responsibilities and effectively contain these crises.  But beyond that, a genuine dialogue must be initiated, to begin healing festering wounds and to bring genuine understanding and reconciliation amongst the entire people of Plateau State and beyond.  The social dimension of the Boko Haram cannot also be resolved by the mere use of force.  This is the reason why I have consistently suggested dialogue and education to counteract its message, especially those aspects dealing with modern education.

    Millions of Muslim pupils are already outside the school system.

    Millions more will definitely follow if urgent intervention is not undertaken to enlighten the younger generations.  And the question I have always asked is What kind of society can we build in the 21st century when our youth turn their back on science and technology and are unable to produce the next generation of doctors, engineers and other specialisations necessary for sustaining the socio-economic development of the society?….”

    Conclusion

    “….Finally, we should not neglect the impact of the international environment on Nigeria’s ethno-religious crises.  Happenings in the United States, Iraq, Afghanistan, Norway, Netherlands, the United Kingdom, France, Palestine, Ukraine, Gaza, Russia and Sudan are as current and relevant as events in Jos, Maiduguri and Abuja. We must preach international tolerance and moderation. The fight against extremist groups should never be perverted to become a fight against Islam and its doctrines.  We should all remember that in the final analysis, it is not what the perpetrators of violence do that really counts.  It is the actions we take, individually and collectively, that would (eventually) shape the fate of humanity….”

    Now, with this new development, the hope of redeeming Nigeria from impending disintegration may be rekindled if the motive is not political especially with the 2027 elections becoming fast-approaching.

  • Those coups in West Africa

    Those coups in West Africa

    “If people cannot trust their Government to do the job for which it exists – to protect them and promote their welfare – all else is lost” … Barrack Obama, the 44th President of the United States of America.

    Six days ago on the 6th of December, 2025, Africans woke up to a development in Cotonou , the capital of the Republic of Benin in the West African subregion, when some dissident soldiers, attempted to overthrow the government of President Patrice Talon. The move was swiftly countered by the loyal armed forces of the Republic of Benin, with the support, and intervention of the military from the neighboring Federal Republic of Nigeria, under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The coup was effectively quelled, and the catastrophe of military interregnum was averted. Peace is maintained and sustained in the Republic of Benin .

    I commend President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for the swift action he took to avert the coup in the Republic of Benin which could potentially have negative political and socio-economic impacts on Nigeria and West Africa. I am able to say like every other well-meaning citizens in Nigeria and across the world, that military regimes are not the solution to bad governance or to change the leadership of a Country or States. I believe, like many others, that the best way to bring positive change in a democratic setting is through the ballot box, or through effective and legitimate process  and the power of the people. Therefore, I am very happy that the attempted Coups failed in Benin Republic.

    However, the attempted coup in the Republic of Benin and the drama that happened in Guinea-Bissau about two weeks ago, whereby what I call an “arrangee” coup was undertaken in the the Republic of Guinea-Bissau, has raised or amplified some key questions with regard to the trend of military coups  and attempted coups sweeping across  the West Africa subregion. Rather than for that trend to be stopped, it appears to be increasing and taking new dimensions where political leaders appear to be arranging with the Armed forces to overthrow them, as a gambit to block their political opponents from legitimately winning elections and taking over power from them. Therefore, while we are pushing back against military coups and juntas, it is important for us to interrogate the reasons why the coups and attempted coups are becoming prevalent, and address those issues so as  to ensure that the trend of military coups is stopped.  The Countries and peoples of Africa must move towards solutions rather than going backwards and deeper into complications of such nature as military interventions.

    The real tenets of Democracy and Good Governance are Critical:

    We may recall that the military coups in Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali were and are still actually supported and accepted by the majority of citizens of those countries. This is a reflection of the failure of the political class across Africa to deliver good governance, and ensure the credibility and sustainability of democracy. A key point to be noted,  especially by the political leaders, is that unless and until political leaders focus on and deliver the mandates given to them by the citizens; unless they are sensitive to the concerns of the citizens of their country, those political leaders will continue to create or open  for the military or the non-state actors and agents of doom to continue attempting to take over power in that country by whatever means.

    In my opinion, as it is the opinion of many other thought leaders and many other citizens across Africa, the failure to comply with the tenets of democracy, the lack of good governance, and the impunity of the political class are contributing factors that will continue to create opportunities for power grabs and what I call “institutional coups”, which are taking place across Africa, unhindered and supported, either deliberately or inadvertently by the other Presidents across Africa. Today in Africa, we have the sit tight leaders who have been in power for decades, who have refused to give way to proper democratic processes and they are members of the African Union and other subregional bodies like ECOWAS, etc. Meanwhile, the political consciousness of the people is changing. Yes, we are all rising against military interregnums. But also, yes, people are conscious of their powers, and when push comes to shove, as we have seen in the Republics of Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mail, the citizens may not necessarily support the politicians in power or the democratically elected governments, when they are not delivering credible democracy and good governance, especially when they demonstrate dictatorial tendencies..

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    Over 60 years or less since independence, majority of African Countries are still grappling with the provision of basic amenities like clean drinking water, steady electricity, education, security, free, fair, and credible elections, etc. Therefore, it is important for us to note that the foundations and building blocks of our Countries and Continent are fundamental to the success of the Africa.. indeed the  entrenchment of the tenets of democracy is crucial.

    leaders across Africa to smell the coffee and face those realities. The enemies within will continue to rise so long as we keep on giving them the opportunities by failing to live up to expectations of your peoples.

    Furthermore, the fact that mlitary coups are becoming fashionable in Africa, is a  reflection of  what I call, “the illusion of democracy, that African politicians give their citizens. This is because most times, the political class hide under the cloak of democracy, to perpetuate more evil than the military.

    If you take Nigeria, for example, back in the days, the political class have been part and parcel of coups and countercoups. What is happening in Guinea-Bissau is like a smaller, and more rough version of what happened in other countries, like Uganda, Cameroun, Cote De Voice, etc. Oher “democratically elected” Presidents and AU and regional bodies, do not call out or sanction democratically elected Presidents  demonstrate undemocratic tendencies or act undemocratically. They only  call out the military when they take over. Hence, the leaders of West Africa are opening up the windows to military interregnums that they are not able to control or de-legitimize. And that is why the Sahel region is  becoming more militarized. It is all about leadership, because if the AU, ECOWAS, and other countries are demonstrating leadership in terms of institutionalizing democracy military coups will away.

    As for ECOWAS, I ask for some introspection, going forward, with regard how things have been evolving in the sub-region, and to a larger extent in the continent of Africa. It is not enough for you to come and start blowing the whistle of war, or blowing the horn of war, when you know that you have not delivered good governance. Because what is true and what is real is, there is a phenomenon sweeping over Africa, triggered by the Arab Spring, and consolidated by the Sudan meltdown of Omar al-Bashir, you know, which was actually triggered by the people, not by the junta.

    As a Hausa proverb says, “unless the world cracks, the lizard will not find a way to go through”.. So, going forward, I just hope and pray that the ECOWAS will look at the core tenets of ECOWAS, and that is the improvement of the economy of the sub-region. That should be the focal point. The moment they are able to deliver those provisions of the treaty I revised in 1991, I think that would further dissuade military takeovers or totally eliminate them. And also, to continue focussing on Africa, on we, the Africans, and delivering value for us, rather than leaning towards the Western powers that use them, you know, for their proxy wars, and to continue to plunder our resources. So, however we look at it, the key role of dissuading and eliminating military takeovers still falls within the ECOWAS in terms of the various leadership of the countries in the sub-region.

    There must be Peace for Development to happen

    There must be peace before growth and development can happen. There must be stability in terms of democracy and the socio-economic well-being of our citizens across the countries in the continent for us to achieve the national, regional and continental growth and development. Look at what is happening in The Sahel region,  Sudan, South Sudan, and DRC, for example, and other parts of Africa.

    It is important to note that in Africa, we must recognize that the lingering and growing crises across Africa will ultimately hamstring the growth of the continent because we are all connected. Invariably if one regional bloc sneezes the other part of the Continent ultimately catches the cold with the effects that follow. Therefore, United we stand, and divided we will continue to wallow in the abyss of backwardness.