The Nation Newspaper

Category: Columnists

  • Soludo’s market closure: Democracy, security and limits of executive power

    Soludo’s market closure: Democracy, security and limits of executive power

    The recent decision by Lt Col., sorry, Governor Chukwuma Soludo to shut down the Onitsha Main Market for one week has ignited a fierce debate about governance, security, and the existence of democratic rudiments in Anambra State. While the Colonel’s, sorry governor’s frustration with the Monday sit-at-home compliance is understandable, his stentorian response raises fundamental questions about whether ‘ajuwaya’ strong-arm tactics can substitute for the protection and security that these traders desperately need.

    Governor Soludo’s reasons for this drastic action are not without merit on the surface. The Onitsha Main Market, previously like many commercial centers across the Southeast, had been observing the Monday sit-at-home order, an action that appears to validate the authority of non-state actors, over the legitimate government. This compliance represents a troubling erosion of state authority, suggesting that faceless individuals wielding threats hold more sway over citizens than elected officials. The economic implications are equally staggering. Each Monday that Onitsha Main Market remains closed, Anambra State hemorrhages revenue that could fund infrastructure, healthcare, and education. The cumulative effect of these weekly closures amounts to trillions of naira in lost economic activity annually, affecting not just the state’s coffers but the livelihoods of countless families dependent on the market’s vibrancy.

    Furthermore, Soludo’s argument that other major markets across Anambra are  functioning normally on Mondays carries some weight. Markets in Awka, Nnewi, Nkpor, Abagana and Obosi, and even other parts of the Southeast continue their operations without interruption. The question then becomes: why should Onitsha be an exception? From this perspective, the governor’s insistence that Onitsha traders must break free from the grip of fear and resume normal trading appears logical. The state cannot afford to have its commercial nerve center paralyzed by the dictates of criminal elements who have no electoral mandate or moral authority.

    However, this is precisely where Soludo’s approach reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of democratic governance and the social contract between leaders and the led. The governor appears to have forgotten that Nigeria is a democracy, not a military dictatorship. In a democracy, governments exist to serve and protect their citizens, not to coerce them into dangerous situations. The traders are not closing their shops on Mondays because they are lazy ,unpatriotic or closet symphatisers of IPOB. They are doing so because they are terrified for their lives and property. This is not willing submission to non-state actors; it is survival instinct in the face of credible threats and demonstrable violence.

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    Shutting down the market as punishment for this fear-driven compliance is not just counterproductive; it is morally indefensible. If the market were being closed for legitimate regulatory reasons such as poor sanitation, fire safety violations, or environmental hazards, the government would be within its rights. But closing a market because traders are afraid of being killed or having their goods destroyed represents a spectacular failure of leadership. It shifts blame from the government’s inability to provide security onto the victims of insecurity themselves. These traders are not the enemy; the hoodlums terrorizing them are.

    The comparison to other markets functioning normally, while superficially compelling, crumbles under scrutiny. Onitsha Main Market is not just any market. It is the largest market in West and East Africa combined, a sprawling commercial ecosystem with hundreds of thousands of daily visitors and transactions running into billions of naira. The security requirements for such a massive complex are exponentially greater than those for smaller markets. Protecting Onitsha Main Market would require tripling or even quadrupling the security presence that might suffice elsewhere. Has the Anambra State government deployed such resources? Have there been visible, sustained security operations that would give traders confidence in their safety? The evidence suggests otherwise.

    Ali Chukwuma, one of Anambra’s finest bards once crooned “ Eje ana bu isi Ije” (A safe return is the centrepiece of every journey or travel). Now, if the government could guarantee absolute security within the market premises, what about the journey to and from the market? Traders cannot materialize in and out of the market gates by magic and with Soludo arresting and detaining a number of dibias, such magic may not be readily available to these traders as they travel from various parts of Anambra and neighboring states, often in the pre-dawn hours to set up their wares. The roads leading to Onitsha, the motor parks, the surrounding neighborhoods—these are all potential ambush points for those enforcing the sit-at-home. A trader who survives the market day unscathed might still face violence on the way home. Is their life worth the revenue they would generate for the state? The traders themselves have answered this question with their feet, and it is revealing that many of them are willing and eager to trade even on Sundays, demonstrating their entrepreneurial spirit and economic ambition. Yet this same ambition cannot override the instinct for self-preservation.

    Contrast such authoritarian directives with the fact that a number of state institutions such as the Anambra State House of Assembly, as well as local government council secretariats  observe these sit at home days (Anambra State House of Assembly conducts plenary sessions on Tuesdays, whilst most secretariats experience skeletal presence of staff) these are places that possess immense security coverage, yet, Soludo wants to compel hapless citizens to risk their lives, a case of do as I say not as I do!

    Governor Soludo would serve his people better by engaging in meaningful dialogue with market leadership rather than wielding the sledgehammer of closure. What specific security measures do the traders need to feel safe? What intelligence-sharing mechanisms can be established between market unions and security agencies? What emergency response protocols can be implemented?

    These are the questions a democratic leader should be asking. Copying from the playbook of military regimes—issuing ultimatums, making threats, forcing compliance through coercion—is a dangerous path that may indeed come back to haunt him politically and morally.

    Democracy thrives on consultation, consensus-building, and collaborative problem-solving. It withers under autocratic edicts and punitive measures against citizens who are already victims. The Onitsha Main Market crisis is fundamentally a security crisis, not a compliance crisis. Until Governor Soludo addresses the root cause—the inability of the state to protect its citizens from violent non-state actors—any attempt to force the market open will be both futile and unjust.

    The governor must remember that leadership in a democracy means walking with the people, understanding their fears, and creating conditions that make courage possible, not demanding bravery while providing no shield. Onitsha’s traders need protection, not punishment. They need a governor who fights the criminals terrorizing them, not one who fights them for being terrorized. Only when security is genuinely assured will the market return to its full glory, not through coercion, but through the restoration of confidence and peace.

  • Week the numbers could not ignore

    Week the numbers could not ignore

    There are weeks in the life of a presidency when events align so neatly that even the most sceptical observers are forced to pause. Last week was one of such weeks for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and, by extension, for Nigeria. From the diplomatic theatres of Ankara to the trading screens of the foreign exchange market, and finally to the cold verdict of an influential global publication, the signals were unmistakably positive. It was a week of wins, plain and clear.

    It began in Türkiye. On Monday evening, President Tinubu arrived in Ankara at the invitation of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, stepping into the biting winter cold not as a tourist or ceremonial guest, but as a man on a mission. Those who know Tinubu’s political and administrative DNA understand this instinctively. He does not travel to admire scenery or exchange pleasantries. He travels for leverage, for advantage, for deals that can move the needle at home. Ankara was no exception.

    By Tuesday, the business end of the visit was in full swing. The optics alone told a story: a Nigerian delegation heavy with ministers and senior officials, sitting across from their Turkish counterparts, not in supplication but in negotiation. By the time the doors opened and the communiqués rolled out, Nigeria walked away with no fewer than nine multi-sectoral agreements. Defense cooperation, energy, education, diaspora policy, media, halal quality infrastructure, and the establishment of a Joint Economy and Trade Committee all made the list. Most symbolically, both countries recommitted themselves to growing bilateral trade to $5 billion. It was previously about $2 billion.

    That figure is not mere diplomatic decoration. It represents factories humming, ports busier than before, and jobs created along value chains that stretch from Lagos to Ankara. It signals confidence in Nigeria as a destination for capital at a time when investors are notoriously cautious. For Tinubu, it was also another entry in a familiar ledger. As governor of Lagos State years ago, he built a reputation as a dealmaker who understood that growth follows structure, and structure follows hard choices. Türkiye felt like a reprise of that Lagos playbook, scaled to a national stage.

    Even the minor mishap that briefly caught public attention, (back at home though because reports had it that Turks were surprised to hear that made a headline in Nigeria); a stumble caused by stepping on a metal object, became an unintended metaphor. The President steadied himself and carried on. No drama, no interruption, no retreat. In many ways, it mirrored the broader reform journey of his administration: momentarily jarring, uncomfortable to watch at times, but defined by forward motion rather than paralysis.

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    While the echoes of Ankara were still settling, another signal emerged back home. On Thursday, the naira did something it had not done in a long while: it surprised the optimists by outperforming expectations. Strengthening from the N1,450–N1,420 range to about N1,388.24 to the dollar at the official window, the currency recorded its strongest showing since May 2024. In a country where exchange rate movements dominate dinner-table conversations and boardroom calculations alike, the news landed with force.

    This was not a random bounce. It was the fruit of a decision Tinubu took early in his presidency, and for which he paid a heavy political price: pulling the plug on the rent-seeking, multi-window foreign exchange regime and allowing the naira to find its level. That move stripped away the illusion of strength that had enriched a few through arbitrage while bleeding the economy. It denied round-trippers their playground and forced capital to respond to fundamentals rather than favours.

    For months, the pain was real and visible. Inflation surged, purchasing power shrank, and the criticism was relentless. Yet, as last Thursday’s numbers suggested, the architecture was always designed for this phase: stabilisation, credibility, and gradual recovery. A currency that can strengthen on the back of policy coherence is one that investors can trust, even if cautiously. The Ankara deals and the naira’s performance were not separate stories; they were chapters of the same narrative.

    Then came Friday, and with it, the verdict of The Economist. Rarely sentimental and often unforgiving, the magazine offered an assessment that many Nigerians might not have expected so soon. It credited Tinubu’s administration with pulling Africa’s largest economy back from the brink. It noted that painful reforms had stabilised the naira, rebuilt foreign exchange reserves to a seven-year high, and set the stage for renewed growth, with the IMF projecting a 4.4 per cent expansion in 2026.

    The Economist did not ignore the hardships. It acknowledged the squeeze on ordinary Nigerians and the strain of debt servicing on public finances. But its core conclusion was unambiguous: the direction is right, the precision of reform is evident, and the economy is no longer wobbling on the edge. For a president whose choices have often been judged harshly in the court of public opinion, that mattered.

    Put together, the three strands of the week tell a coherent story. The success in Türkiye was not an isolated diplomatic flourish; it was an external validation of internal reform. Investors and partner nations respond to seriousness, to clarity of purpose, and to governments that are willing to endure short-term pain for long-term gain. The naira’s rally was not a miracle; it was a market response to consistency. And The Economist’s analysis was not flattery; it was a recognition that something fundamental has shifted.

    There is still a long road ahead. Stability does not automatically translate into prosperity, and macroeconomic improvements can feel abstract to families struggling with daily costs. Tinubu himself has never pretended otherwise. Yet politics, like economics, moves in phases. Last week marked the end of one such phase and the clear opening of another, one in which credibility begins to compound.

    For President Tinubu, it was a reminder that leadership is often vindicated not in applause but in outcomes. A week that began with a flight into Ankara ended with numbers and narratives aligning in his favour. The cameras saw it, the markets felt it, and the world took note. In the unforgiving arithmetic of governance, that counts as a win.

    Beyond the headline-grabbing success of the Turkish state visit, the steady rebound of the naira against the dollar and the rare nod of approval from The Economist, the rest of President Tinubu’s week unfolded as a careful blend of statecraft, empathy and symbolism, quiet moments that often say as much about leadership as high-stakes diplomacy.

    Midweek, the President turned national attention to matters of shared grief and collective humanity. On Wednesday, he reached out to Super Eagles captain Wilfred Ndidi following the tragic death of his father, Sunday Ndidi, in a road accident in Delta State. Tinubu’s message, sober and deeply personal, underscored the bond between family and nation, reminding Nigerians that even their most celebrated stars are not immune to loss. The condolence resonated all the more because it came just as Ndidi continues to carry the hopes of a football-loving nation on his shoulders.

    That same day, the President’s gaze shifted from personal sorrow to a global challenge that increasingly defines the modern age. Speaking through the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume, at a high-level meeting on climate-induced mobility under Nigeria’s chairmanship of the Rabat Process, Tinubu made a case for coordinated global action. His message was clear: climate change is no longer an abstract environmental concern but a driver of migration, insecurity and humanitarian strain across continents. It was a fitting final note to Nigeria’s tenure as Chair, positioning the country as a thoughtful voice in global conversations that link climate, development and human dignity.

    Also on Wednesday, the President mourned the passing of Otunba Adekunle Ojora, a towering figure in Nigeria’s business and public life. Tinubu’s tribute to the 93-year-old industrialist highlighted values; humility, perseverance, hard work and generosity, that once defined a generation of nation builders and which the administration continues to invoke as moral anchors in a reforming economy.

    Thursday carried a more reflective, historical tone. At the 2026 Samuel Akintola Memorial Lecture in Ibadan, Tinubu urged Nigerians to draw lessons from the life of the late Premier of Western Nigeria, Chief Ladoke Akintola. Through his representative, he called for courage, unity and a politics of cooperation, warning against bitterness and division, an appeal that echoed the administration’s broader push for national cohesion amid political realignments.

    The week closed on a gentler, celebratory note. On Friday, Tinubu congratulated Alhaja Lateefat Gbajabiamila, a 96-year-old pioneer nurse and former local government chair, on her honorary doctorate. In celebrating her resilience and service, the President subtly reinforced a theme that ran through his week: that nationhood is built not only by policies and power but by lives of quiet excellence, compassion and enduring legacy.

    Taken together, these moments formed the understated rhythm of a presidency attentive not just to markets and summits, but to memory, mourning and meaning.

  • SNAPSONG 223

    SNAPSONG 223

    All hail NEPA Nigeria’s God of Darkness

    The bond between Nigeria and  Darkness 

         Only the drastic word can break.

    One minute of flimsy flashes

         Then, a thousand hours of lightless groping

    Wingless fans mock our misery

         From powerless ceilings

    The aircon coughed into silence

         Many unhappy seasons ago

    Failing factories feed our hunger

         Our laptops run on the heat

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    From our feverish groins.

         With the rays of the kindly moon

    We pen the nation’s epics

         While libraries and laboratories suffocate

    In the lampless anguish of our benighted Academies.

         So wonderfully endowed, we count our blessings

    Halfway through the surgical task

         A medieval darkness engulfs the theatre

    The surgeon’s scalpel veers beyond the veins

         Close by, reeking mortuaries with their restless doors

    At our ultramodern airports

         Darkness taxes faster

    Than the speed of light: blind landing gambles

         Announce the welcome to our Blackout Country

    •Formerly published on July 7, 2024; compelled into re-use here by the persistence of the same Nigerian problem.

    NEPA: National Electric Power Authority; now re-named Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN)

  • Beyond trial of coup plotters

    Beyond trial of coup plotters

    Last week, the federal government finally announced its readiness to constitute military judicial panels to try some 16 coup plotters who late last year allegedly planned to overthrow the government. Their civilian accomplices, still unnumbered and identities undisclosed, will also be arraigned sometime later. The plot, military investigators revealed, involved an almost total decapitation of the country’s leadership in a manner that gave indications that Nigerian soldiers have forgotten how to plan coups. While the law will almost certainly be applied to its fullest in the trial, the plot itself presents a few lessons to the government, the military, and the people.

    The first lesson applies to the military. The last time a successful coup was planned and executed in Nigeria was actually in August 1985 by Gen. Ibrahim Babangida. The April 1990 Maj. Gideon Orkar coup failed disastrously, and the November 1993 so-called coup against the Ernest Shonekan-led interim government was not really a coup in any sense of the word, and was inspired by the courts which had declared the administration illegal. A Lagos High Court headed by Justice Dolapo Akinsanya had in November 1993 declared the Interim National Government headed by Chief Shonekan as ‘illegal and void’. Seven days later, Gen. Sani Abacha forced the illegal administrator’s resignation. And so, forty years after their last successful coup, ambitious military adventurers may have completely forgotten the dynamics of coup-making.

    The Nigerian military has also never successfully executed a coup inspired by one region against another. The January 1966 coup led by mainly Igbo officers failed despite eliminating many political actors and overthrowing the Northern-led federal administration, while the retaliatory July 1966 coup merely restored power into the hands of northerners. In addition, the coup against Gen. Yakubu Gowon was led by his own kinsmen, while the one against Shehu Shagari was also led by his kinsmen, and the one against Muhammadu Buhari was again led by his kinsmen. How the 16 coup plotters of 2025 misread the dynamics of coup-making in Nigeria by leading a group of northern officers to attempt to overthrow a southern president may in fact corroborate the findings by military investigators that the 2025 coup mastermind failed promotion examinations. In other words the plotters were not bright and could not smartly interpret Nigeria’s historical and political circumstances. Had they succeeded in decapitating the administration, it is unlikely they would have been able to manage the aftermaths, regardless of how many thousands poured into the streets to welcome them.

    A third lesson offers itself so clearly to the plotters that it is difficult to explain how they missed it. Quite apart from the internal logic of Nigerian coups aligning with ethnic consanguinity, the only two successful coups ever executed in the country came at a time when the population had not exploded to the level it is today, at over 200 million. How on earth did the plotters hope to manage such an explosive mix of people, and with how many troops, and at a time when the country is besieged on all sides by insurgents, bandits and self-determination forces? And, worse, how would they hope to accommodate intensely fragmented and fratricidal forces all over the country when democracy itself was struggling to gain and retain control? Contemporary West African coup affairs should have lent some lessons to the Nigerian plotters. Among the West African countries where successful or failed coups have taken place, none of them is considerably larger than Lagos State in population. Burkina Faso’s population is about 23.5m; Niger Republic, 27m; Mali, 24.5m; Guinea, 15m; and Benin Republic, 14.5m.

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    It was not just incompetence that propelled the Nigerian plotters; their sanity should also be examined. Yes, they may be fit to stand trial, but it may in fact be necessary to find out how their minds worked or failed to work. That other coup plotters succeeded in some parts of West Africa does not mean that they would succeed in Nigeria regardless of its huge population and combustible ethnic mix. Did they forget that the January 1966 coup also attracted initial welcome in many parts of the North, only to collapse later when ethnic suspicion and rivalry issues kicked in? The bigger lesson for the military and adventurous soldiers is to do self-introspection on how easily susceptible they are to misreading the noise and incitement on social media or even the instigation by politicians grieving over lost elections. There were indications that those who investigated last year’s coup plot found out that the plotters misread signals from the populace. The plotters believed that the fiery rhetoric on social and mainstream media as well as the street protests against economic hardship easily amounted to wholesale disaffection with the government. It is true that as the new administration’s economic reforms began, hunger and other forms of sufferings also exploded; but many sensible analysts, economists and politicians understood that in order to make an omelette, egg had to be broken. However, beguiled public commentators ignorant of the scope of the economic troubles bequeathed the new administration in 2023 simply absolved the previous administration of blame, heaped all the troubles on the new government, and began whooping for coup or revolution, whichever came first.

    The people and the government also have lessons to learn from the coup plot tragedy. It is bewildering that politicians, the media, and diverse commentators hitched on the agitation bandwagon to attempt to rewrite the country’s electoral laws after the elections by denouncing the provision of simple majority and 25 percent of two-thirds of the states, and also discrediting both the vote count in general as well as the eventual winner. They then campaigned openly and shamelessly for coup or revolution. Meanwhile, apart from being aware that some soldiers were probably listening, they also instigated children to man barricades, waved foreign flags of repressive and brutal foreign governments, and even readied themselves to tolerate and endure the collapse of democracy. It was, therefore, not surprising that eventually a group of soldiers hearkened to their cries and tried incompetently to unseat the administration. What of the people who spoke daggers on the social and traditional media? What absolution can they plead? In contrast, imagine if the First Republic had not been terminated by a coup. Imagine if the Second Republic had also not been terminated. More than four times after every coup the country had had to reboot, and each time, it had always encountered the same problems it tried to wish away or abridge.

    It is too early to determine how the military tribunal would judge the plotters, or whether the true motives of the plotters would be exposed during trial. They may not give the tribunal or the public a window into their fears, whether if they had achieved partial success or even full success they could hold the country together. The country may also never know whether their private grievances or lust for power prompted their ill-fated adventure, or whether they harboured any noble motives for the country’s greatness and had a great and tested programme of social, economic and political salvation. What will be known or passed on to the public will probably be the extent of each plotter’s involvement and a confirmation of how they hoped to execute their plans. They will also probably reveal their financiers and indicate how they wished to constitute their government. As for the aftermaths of the coup, had they carried it out, they were probably too naïve to dwell on it or care.

    It is also unlikely that the coup plotters would have nursed the ambition to overthrow the government if they didn’t think they would be lionised. The factor of incitement should be emphasised in the trial to serve as a lesson to those who think it is chic to indulge in all manner of ranting and fiery rhetoric on social media in the name of free speech. Unrestrained speech, it is now clear, sometimes produces terrible consequences. Calling for a revolution or a coup is equivalent to calling for the overthrow of the constitution. The agitators cannot, therefore, turn round to plead the protection of a constitution they wish to destroy. By not calling to account those who agitate in the media for the overthrow of the constitution, the government enables the subversive campaign to continue relentlessly, while some misled soldiers begin to harbour foolish thoughts as to the practicability of seizing power by force, regardless of the terrible consequences for stability and national unity. Already, some political leaders have begun wetting the ground to germinate chaos by suggesting that the 2027 elections would be free only if the opposition won.

  • ADC’s 50 wise, disputatious men

    ADC’s 50 wise, disputatious men

    It has taken nearly seven months for the coalition of opposition forces herded into the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to get round to addressing what they plan to do should they win the presidency in 2027. Last Wednesday, they announced the constitution of a 50-member committee to fashion out what is, theoretically speaking, their response to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The committee will be led by a triumvirate of familiar faces: octogenarian and former Edo governor John Odigie-Oyegun, Pat Utomi, and Bolaji Abdullahi. The 50, already dubbed wise men and women, will be inaugurated in Abuja tomorrow. According to a press release by the party, the committee is expected to “articulate a clear, coherent, and credible policy direction that reflects the aspirations of Nigerians and positions the ADC as a serious alternative platform for responsible leadership and national renewal.”

    On what basis, therefore, did the party, which was controversially ‘taken’ from its former owners last June and rebranded, embark on recruitment of new members since last June? Founded in 2005 as the Alliance for Democratic Change by Ralph Nwosu but registered in 2006 as the African Democratic Congress (ADC), it had set up shop as a political brothel and fielded presidential candidates every election cycle since 2007, with Prof. Utomi as the first candidate. It was thus unsurprising that ensconced in so much pruriency, nearly all its past presidential candidates were hysterical in their campaigns. Last year, former vice president Atiku Abubakar led the effort to coax Mr Nwosu into early retirement. And with the inauguration of a policy and manifesto committee, it is assumed that the old identity of the party, including its nebulous ideology of ‘anti-corruption and good governance’ and amateurish slogan of ‘arise and shine’, will be completely erased. Prof. Utomi, the party’s first candidate in 2007, is not expected to wince at the erasure of the identity of a party he once took advantage of.

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    Clearly, the new ADC leaders think the old identity of the party is no longer tenable. Remaking the party, probably in their own image, is thus the natural thing to do, assuming their disparate worldviews can be successfully coalesced into a coherent whole. The need for ADC rebirth, however, speaks inadvertently to the stridency of their politics and priorities as party leaders and early joiners. Their emphasis in the past months, not to say their sing-song, had been how to win the presidency, their main and unalterable fixation. Little or nothing was heard about their vision and expectations for the states and local government areas. Hence there were no policy frameworks or manifesto. Worse, even far less had been discussed about their vision for democracy, which they paid hypocritical and incomplete attention to, and for Nigeria as a whole, which they all seem eager to betray or trade for private gain. In no part of their public statements so far have they once alluded to anything noble or dignified about the country and its people. Instead they have obtruded upon the people as their champions, approximated their yearnings, no matter how vaguely and inexpertly, and positioned themselves as the people’s catharsis over Nigeria’s economic and social crises.

    Despite their best efforts to conceal their real intentions, ADC leaders flocked together and recruited hundreds of aggrieved followers to achieve only one purpose – defeat the APC in 2027 and win the presidency. It’s all about power and office, and perhaps secondarily to avenge themselves on their implacable enemies in the APC. How they justify their membership of a hijacked party while it was shorn of a manifesto or policy direction is hard to fathom. But the new ADC leaders are not incapable of doing the extraordinarily unthinkable. If challenged, they will want to walk on water. And having scaled the first hurdle of assembling together ageing plutocrats sworn to overthrowing the ruling party, and having ensured that they possessed enough venom to fuel their objectives, they have now turned to the generally menial task of writing manifestos and programmes. But observe critically how scrupulously they avoid any mention of ideology. They remind themselves of how fleet-footed they have been in defecting from one party to the other, not once, not twice, but many times. Their restless search was in fact devoted entirely to achieving their life’s ambition, nothing else. If one political vehicle proves incapacitated, they simply hop onto the next available vehicle with Machiavellian glee.

    The 50 ‘wise men’ may not end up writing a great founding document, as indeed they seem incapable of doing, and must find ways to graft some newfangled and untested ideas on the old ones they are discarding, but they will nevertheless produce a document of one hue or the other. It is, however, certain that the document will not stand the test of time, given the variegated experiences, backgrounds, and motivations of the drafters. A few of the wise men and women may still opt out of the caucus before the drafting is done, as indeed one has already done citing irreconcilable differences. But they will delicately sustain some form of unity in order to produce and publish a document that will be impressively high-sounding, one that elicits knowing winks from skeptical intellectuals but masks the party leaders’ ignoble intentions. In the end, no one will really care about the tone or tenor of the document, not the rabble they will co-opt into their column, and certainly not the ageing, unideological and combative politicians in the twilight of their careers or close to expiration. It will be just a piece of dated paper produced by a group of vengeful politicians accustomed, like their rivals in other parties, to fooling all the people all the time.

  • APC presidential running mate speculations

    APC presidential running mate speculations

    There were no indications that the All Progressives Congress (APC) ever contemplated modifying the formula it adopted to win the 2023 presidential election. But in January, and out of the blue, speculations arose that the party might be amenable to a Muslim-Christian presidential ticket for the 2027 election. After about a week of reportorial indulgence, the party put the lie to the rumours. In addition, months earlier last year, a media feeding frenzy also occurred over whether Vice President Kashim Shettima might be dropped from the 2027 ticket. Again, it took the president affirming on Mr Shettima’s birthday how loyal and diligent and complementary the vice president had been to douse the speculations. On a distant tomorrow, other speculations might yet arise. It comes with the territory. It’s all politics.

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    What is evident so far is that in 2023 the APC proved and probably established for all time the following presidential elections formulae:  (a) for a southern Muslim candidate to stand any chance of winning the presidential election, he will need a northern Muslim running mate; (b) for a northern Muslim candidate to win, he will be sailing near the wind to take a southern Muslim running mate; (c) for a southern Christian candidate to win, he will need a northern Muslim running mate; and (d) for a northern Christian candidate to win, as tough as that might be, he needs a southern Muslim running mate. APC merely and sensibly adopted MKO Abiola’s tactful and serendipitous 1993 presidential election formula. It was idle speculation, indeed childish controversy, to suggest that the APC would discard a formula that has worked well over two dispensations.

  • Oni, BAO and the mathematics of alignment

    Oni, BAO and the mathematics of alignment

    The recent realignment in the UK – where figures like Robert Jenrick are “uniting the right” – proves the “defection bug” is no longer a uniquely Nigerian phenomenon. It speaks to a global volatility where traditional loyalties are being tested against the need for results. For many Nigerians, this shift isn’t about lack of principle; it is about self-preservation.

    In a system where the Exclusive Legislative List still centralizes power, swimming against the tide has not only lost its authentic ring, it is politically unwise. Therefore, to seek a new terrain for tangible progress is a fantastic offer that should not be sacrificed on the altar of reproach.

    On Sunday, January 11, 2026, former Ekiti State Governor, Engineer Olusegun Oni, officially rejoined the All Progressives Congress (APC). By registering at his Ifaki-Ekiti country home, the veteran politician formally shed his opposition mantle, signaling a homecoming that significantly strengthens Governor Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji (BAO)’s coalition ahead of the coming electoral cycle.

    Oni remains something of a political enigma. Deliberately understated, he nonetheless commands a powerful reputation in Ekiti, where he is widely viewed as the embodiment of clean, steady governance. The former governor possesses a rare, non-partisan appeal that transcends traditional divides. His support is anchored more in a deep-seated respect for his person than in mere party branding. His move to the APC – bringing with him a formidable grassroots structure – will inevitably reshape Oyebanji’s strategic roadmap.

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    Oni’s realignment with the progressive fold is likely to stir the indifferent, the non-aligned, and the state’s civil service into action, drawing in those who previously sat on the fence as well as those who habitually sit out election cycles. For Oyebanji, this is more than just a reinforcement; it is a strategic masterstroke that makes assurance doubly sure. With the political mathematics now heavily tilted in his favour, the governor occupies an enviable vantage point.

    The Nigerian electoral system – a ‘first-past-the-post’ relic of our British inheritance – has no room for proportional representation. In this winner-takes-all arena, a fragmented opposition does little more than cannibalize its own base. Consequently, Oyebanji may not even require a simple majority to consolidate his hold. With current projections placing BAO on track to clear 60% of the vote, the remaining contenders are left scrambling just to break the 20% ceiling.  We are months from the polls, yet even the most imaginative scenario struggles to see a fractured opposition staging a comeback of this magnitude. In the end, Oni’s entry sincerely serves to compound the sorrows of those attempting to swing and swerve against the administration’s current.

    Without questions, Oni brings a rare patrician weight to the APC, standing more as a statesman than a mere partisan. His runner-up finish in the last gubernatorial race, achieved with a fledgling party devoid of funds or a formal machine, remains a striking reflection of his personal brand. He is more than a high-profile defector; he is a moral anchor for the administration as the governor begins his pursuit of a second term.

    To Oni, the state is an intricate mechanism that demands a precise blend of logic and ethical grounding. This philosophy has often placed him in a raw, existential struggle with the chaotic, immediate demands of ‘stomach infrastructure.’ His political journey – marked by its restless, migratory nature – is not a sign of instability, but rather a tireless search for moral footing within a system he views as fundamentally flawed. By merging his moral authority with BAO’s rationalist framework, the administration has moved beyond mere political calculus, it is actively fortifying the very architecture of the state itself. In a deeply philosophical sense, Oni’s enduring legacy is one of Radical Consistency; he remains a man who would sooner lose his platform than his soul.

    Tajudeen Olutope Ahmed, a legal practitioner, offers a striking reflection on this evolution: “As a pioneer councilor in 1997 and a pillar of the Fourth Republic’s dawn in 1999, my political identity was forged in the fires of partisan loyalty. I was a foot soldier for the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and later the Action Congress (AC), viewing the political landscape through a lens of infectious fanaticism.

    “In that era, Segun Oni was the enemy – an opponent to be dismantled through grassroots condemnation and the legal rigours of his 2007-2010 tenure. My opposition was total, rooted in the myopic conviction that any rival to our cause was, by definition, an obstacle to Ekiti’s progress.

    ​“This perspective shattered upon meeting Oni personally through my cousin, Ambassador Jolaade Onipede. I found not a villain, but a remarkably humble visionary who even suggested he would have brought me into his cabinet had we known each other then. Today, Oni is celebrated across party lines for his integrity and enduring projects; indeed, his gracious foreword to my 2013 book remains a point of pride. His return to our party is a masterstroke of political realignment – a significant victory for our stakeholders that effectively secures a clear path for Biodun Oyebanji’s re-election.”

    • With Ahmed’s conversion narrative, the proof is settled. Q.E.D!

  • Agunsoye: Tribute to the deity at 69

    Agunsoye: Tribute to the deity at 69

    Last weekend, the Elegboro of Ijebu-Jesa, His Royal Majesty, Oba (Engr.) Oba Moses Oluwafemi Agunsoye, clocked 69 years on this earth.

    Born on January 24, 1957, Oba Agunsoye traded a thirty-five-year career at the Federal Ministry of Industry for the throne of his forefathers in 2017. Bringing the discipline of a mechanical engineer and the seasoned perspective of a former Director to his reign, Kabiyesi has quietly transformed our ‘Native Nazareth’ through steady, practical leadership.

    Perhaps his greatest achievement, however, is the peace he has maintained. His ascension came without the bitter disputes that often fracture communities in Yorubaland. Instead, he has occupied the throne with a quiet dignity and a character that remains entirely beyond reproach.

    At 69, rather than merely acting as a custodian of the past, Oba Agunsoye has brought fastidiousness, professionalism and a new sense of peace and progress to the land of his forefathers. He has successfully united the Council of Obas across Oriade Local Government, Ijesa North, and the wider Ijesaland, ensuring stability for all. Under his leadership, the town’s landscape has transformed with the construction of a new Palace, several modern shopping complexes, and new lock-up shops at the Ijebu-Jesa International Market.

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    Beyond infrastructure, he has influenced the establishment of the NSCDC Area Command and an FRSC Special Unit to improve local security. His reign has also re-energized our people, leading to the rise of active groups like the Ijebu-Jesa Recreation Club, Heritage Club, and their diaspora chapters in the US and UK, all working together for the town’s growth.

    By rallying the community around self-help projects like solar boreholes and scholarships, he has transformed the town into a burgeoning business hub. His is a leadership rooted in integrity and humility – a crown defined not by its gold, but by the tangible progress of his people.

    Our revered monarch has made a very good start! As he enters his 70th year, may the Almighty God, the King of Kings, continue to fortify His Royal Majesty, Oba Moses Olúwáfémi Agúnsóyè with the strength and divine health to lead Ijebu-Jesa for many more years!

    May Kabiyesi’s years be long, his path be clear, and the Agunsoye lineage continue to flourish under the gaze of the Most High!​

    K’ádé pé lórí, kí bàtà pé lésè. kí esin oba je’ko pé!

    Yèé ló ye ó, Oba ria!

    • May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!

  • Tinubu’s misstep: Sadists live up to character

    Tinubu’s misstep: Sadists live up to character

    The moment the news filtered in that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had stumbled during an excursion with President Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey while on an official visit to the European country, my instincts told me that his detractors would celebrate the incident as if they had just won the jackpot in a multi-billion dollar lottery. And they did not disappoint as they lived up to expectation in extraordinary manner.

    By Thursday morning, the social media space had been taken over with caricatures of the President in inflated mockery of a fleeting incident, no thanks to Artificial Intelligence (AI); the latest tool of mischief foisted on us by technology. Some members of a particular tribe, whose daily preoccupation is to pray for President Tinubu’s downfall so their son could become president, took the mischief further, as they were decked in a ceremonial uniform apparently sewn in anticipation of Wednesday’s incident, dancing hysterically to the sound of Ekwe.

    Some others pre-occupied themselves with taunts on the social media, completely oblivious of the strategic importance of the President’s mission to a country that is not only capable of enhancing our economic fortunes but also positioned to offer a clue for an end to the security misfortune our country has been grappling with for close to two decades, having at various times been accused of aiding its purveyors.

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    To be sure, it was not the first time the President would have such an experience. He had stumbled while climbing the boarding stairs of an aircraft during his campaign tour as the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the build-up to the 2023 elections. And as it is customary, his detractors had made a show of the minor incident in the social media, slanting the story to give the impression that he was too weak and fragile for the office he sought. His admirers were, however, quick to counter the narrative, saying that governance is not a job for the feet but one for the head (brain).

     Any fair observer would know that the misstep that caused Tinubu to stumble had nothing to do with lack of fitness. According to his spokesman, Mr Bayo Onanuga, the President simply lost his balance after stepping on a metal object while walking alongside his host. “This is not a big deal except for those who want to make mischief out of a fleeting incident. It was a mere stumble, thank God, not a fall,” he said. What is more, the President continued his engagement as scheduled.

    But how did we get to this point? When did we become a people that glory in the misfortune of others? Who, for crying out loud, is immune to stumbling or even falling? One of the earliest life lessons I learnt is that a man’s greatness is not determined by how many times he falls but how many times he rises after falling.

    What happened to the President in Ankara can happen to even the fittest of athletes. After all, sporting history is replete with cases of agile athletes who stumbled in their tracks and even fell. Lost on Tinubu’s detractors is the fact that the moment he was sworn into office as President, he seized to represent himself, his family or friends and acquaintances alone. He is the symbol of national authority; the face and image of Nigeria and the representative of every citizen, including those who did not vote for him during the 2023 polls.

    It, therefore amounts to self-ridicule on the part of those who chose to taunt him when he stumbled. Mercifully, he is not a weakling who would melt under the weight of such theatrics, much unlike a known presidential aspirant reputed for melting twice on national television, once over the criticisms directed at him by supporters of his political opponents, and once after losing the 2023 election.

    On his part, Tinubu is a leader who has not only developed a thick skin to the coarse invectives often hauled at him by his detractors but has also learnt to take even destructive criticisms with equanimity. “I have stopped visiting the social media. They abuse the hell out of me,” he once declared in a light-hearted manner. Chances are, therefore, that he might not even have seen the caricatures of him in the social media after the Turkey incident. But even if he did, one can rest assured that he is not losing sleep over it. His mission in Turkey is far too serious to be distracted by such inanities.

  • Chop alone, die alone

    Chop alone, die alone

    These are the tales of two state chairmen of a popular party.

    They are predecessor and successor; the former a lawyer-diplomat, and the other a businessman.

    Both were eminently qualified, but one was definitely wiser.

    The challenge was money, or put succinctly, the management of corruption or financial inducement.

    The diplomat believed in a collegiate approach, collective effort and team spirit. Thus, when bribes were offered to him during local government nominations, he would declare the amount to the members of executive during meetings. The money was shared by all of them.

    But the businessman had a way of secretly collecting bribes from aspirants without disclosing to members of his team.

    No matter how it was concealed, the bribery always leaked. Exco members always got to know because the mouths of bribe givers were not closed. The exco members would grumble, but they often lacked the temerity to challenge the chairman.

    Even at that, the diplomat who carried his team along ran into turbulence during his tenure. An aspirant who offered some money as gift ahead of nominations cried foul when he did not emerge as candidate. He alleged that the chairman took bribe from him and failed to deliver. A petition was forwarded to the party leader. Copies were sent to the governor and the executive committee.

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    Swiftly, the exco rose in defense of the chairman, absolving him of the charge. They unanimously told the leader that it was one of those unsolicited unofficial donations to the party and that no member of exco was in the dark. The chairman survived. He completed his tenure successfully.

    But it was the other way round for his successor; the stingy businessman-chairman. When he ran into crisis over a dollarised bribe, his exco abandoned him – after all they never partook in it.

    He appeared alone before the leader. His defense was turned down. There was no support from exco. The leader remembered how his predecessor was fiercely defended by other party officers. His tenure ended on that note.

    The former promoted the idea of “we chop together and survive.” The latter, the idea of “chop alone, die alone.”

    Neither of the two approaches is clean. But since politics is always in conflict with morality, wise politicians tend to lean towards the second approach as a strategy for survival in the murky waters of corrupted politics.