The Southeast is aggrieved. It is not without justification. The zone is not happy that it has not produced an elected President since independence in 1960. Thus, its complaint about marginalisation is on point as its feuding political elite crave for a sense of belonging.
Plural Nigeria recognises Ndigbo as an asset. The Igbo bring examples of intellect, craftsmanship, innovation, business acumen and drive for industry, self-dependence and self-sufficiency. Though they move from their native homeland to other zones, their hearts always connect with their homeland. Theirs is a kingless society but of kith and kin reputed for classic nationalism.
This geo-political region has contributed immensely to the development of the nation-state, like other regions. It is not an inferior ethnic group. The zone has the right to agitate for Presidency. But it is also advisable that it should re-strategise and play its politics with cohesive finesse.
The Igbo have produced a President before. But Dr. Nnamidi Azikiwe, the Great Zik of Africa, was a ceremonial leader, while Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa, a northerner, exercised all executive powers during the Westminster model of the First Republic.
The Southeast also produced a military Head of State, Major General Johnson Thomas Umunnakwe Aguiyi-Ironsi, who wreaked havoc on federalism through his ill-advised unification decree. His tenure, unsurprisingly, was short-lived. After six months in office, he was killed by northern soldiers.
Then, the Eastern State, led by Col. Emeka Odumegeu-Ojukwu, attempted to quit the federation. For about three years, he struggled to carve Biafra out of Nigeria but without success. The pains of the sanguinary struggle still linger. The memory of its horror has not faded.
In 1979, there was a sort of political integration. Dr. Alex Ekwueme, from the East, became Vice President under Alhaji Shehu Shagari, from the North. Contrary to insinuations, he was not totally a spare tyre. A cordial relationship existed between him and his powerful boss.
While the North, West and Southsouth had produced Presidents, the East has not, although it has produced powerful ministers, special advisers, Central Bank governors, service chiefs, ambassadors, and other top government officials.
Since 1999, the geo-political zone has remained the stronghold of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). It has turned its back at other parties during presidential elections. It could be said that the region has been in alliance with the North under the PDP umbrella. But the trust that ought to accompany the alliance is doubtful. Except in 2019 when the PDP candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, picked his running mate, Peter Obi, from the East, the opposition party the region has invested so much in is not planning to zone its ticket to the region.
Ahead of 2023, the Southeast is testing the waters. At home, the outlawed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), led by Nnamidi Kanu, is on the prowl. The organisation claims to be fighting Nigeria. Only Easterners bear the brunt through the weekly disruption of socio-economic activities.
But, political leaders and other elders from the region are also intensifying the clamour for the zoning of the presidency. While the separatist agitations have become detrimental to the building of trust and confidence critical to the zoning of the presidential ticket in the PDP, many All Progressives Congress (APC) leaders do not see the logic in the Southeast’s quest for its presidential ticket because of the region’s manifest hostility to the ruling party.
The clamour appears to be the bond of theoretical unity in the politically divided region. The region’s apex body, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, is emotionally attached to the project. In the past, key Southeast leaders even mooted the idea of raising money in aid of the presidential project.
Four politicians from the East have now thrown their hats into the ring. Yet, the prospect does not look bright.
The first to indicate interest is a former Senate President and ex-Secretary to Government of the Federation (SGF), Anyim Pius Ayim. He is somehow combative, saying he would bid for the PDP ticket, whether it is zoned to the region or not.
Also, Ebonyi State Governor Dave Umahi, who has defected from PDP to APC, has joined the race. Four days ago, Senator Rochas Okorocha, a former governor of Imo State, also unfolded his ambition, reminiscent of 2014, when he struggled with General Muhammadu Buhari for the APC ticket.
There is also the influential Mazi Samuel Iheanyichukwu Ohuabunwa, a Nigerian pharmacist, politician and business executive.
Another politician, Senate Chief Whip Orji Uzor Kalu, is yet to make up his mind, hinging his hope on zoning to the South. But, zoning to the South is not the end. There is micro-zoning, which is the crux of the matter.
If the APC ticket is zoned to the South, it is most likely that it would be to the Southwest, which has more members in the ruling party than the Southeast and the Southsouth have.
It is doubtful that the Southwest would be ready to concede the opportunity to the Southeast.
While the North and the Southeast, the North and Southsouth, as well as the North and the Southwest have been partners in Arewa’s quest for federal power and retention of political control, the Southeast and the Southwest have never jointly proposed a somewhat strategic political collaboration. Both regions have continually suffered from the carryover of the Zik/Awo hostility.
Indeed, as observers have noted, the Southeast may have a weak claim because it has neglected the route to power. Its low numerical strength in the ruling party may have translated into weak bargaining power.
The idea of also drafting ‘Ebele Azikiwe Goodluck Jonathan’ into the presidential race and branding the Ijaw man as a potential Igbo candidate for APC may have collapsed. It is a slap on Igbo land, which can boast of authentic and competent sons and daughters to occupy the number one seat.
The anticipated transformation from Ijaw to Igbo may have paled into a figment of hyperactive imagination. If the plot is resurrected, it may still end up as stillborn.
Igbo leaders appear to be exerting much pressure on inter-regional contact, mobilising and lobbying for the dream to become a reality. They have received sympathy from elements across the five zones, including intellectuals, leaders of ethnic mouthpiece, and other observers. But their dispositions are not influential on the two major political parties. Majority of those supporting power shift to the Southeast are outside the sphere of influence.
Some academics and technocrats appear to be mooting the idea of a third voice. It is not likely they are looking in the direction of the East for a presidential candidate. Besides, the so-called third force in the embryo will not have the advantage of solid and formidable structure.
Indisputably, not all Igbo leaders are on the same page with their elected governors on the quest for federal power. A meeting was slated for Igbere for brainstorming and compiling of ideas on the clamour. It was boycotted by the governors and their followers. This underscores the futility of anchoring the agitation for power on the platform of non-partisan tribal organisations.
The Igbo race also faces other conflicts, hurdles or obstacles. There is no consensus. Igbo youths appear to nurse a different agenda. They are agitating for the actualisation of the ill-fated Biafra Republic at a time their elders are vigorously pushing for a president from the Southeast. The signal to other sensitive regions is that the agenda for balkanisation can be revived, if an Igbo man becomes president. This is a nasty thought because the motivation, as championed by individuals and groups calling for zoning or rotation, is the quest for equity, fairness and justice.
While the Igbo are scattered all over the country where they ply their trade, youths at home are insisting that the only future they see is one with the Biafra passport to cross the Niger Bridge. This posturing may not be helpful to the cause.
Also, there is conflict between the agitation for “Igbo President” and the clamour for “Southeast President”. There are Igbo in the Southeast and the Southsouth.
What will be the fate of the Igbo from Southsouth? Ayim has said that the scope of the struggle is limited to the Southeast.
The Igbo outside the Southeast are kicking at their exclusion.
Also, what is the fate of minority tribes in the Southeast? Can the few non-Igbo Southeasterners – and these are the minority of the minorities – also vie on the strength of the indisputable fact that they hail from the region? What will be the fate of Igala in Anambra, for instance? If it is the Igbo agenda, can they find accommodation in the project?
Can the apparent and subsisting marginalisation of the Igbo, the third largest ethnic nationality, based on what has now amounted to presidential exclusion, be sustained? The answer is No. But, has the Constitution been breached by not conceding the presidential slot to Ndigbo? The answer is also No.
The 1999 Constitution is clear on the eligibility for the presidential election. It is the ground norm. It is sacrosanct. It is non-negotiable.
According to the Constitution, all Nigerians of a certain age are qualified. The onus is on political parties to zone the slot to an agreed part of the country. In doing so, parties always want to be strategic. Zoning or rotation of the ticket is never pronounced publicly.
Zoning and rotation are internalised as mechanisms for safeguarding equity, justice and sense of belonging in a disunited Nigeria. However, it should be borne in mind by the zoning crusaders that the dominant political parties, which subscribe to zoning or rotation, in principle, also have their own contrasting formula for accomplishing zoning, rotation and power shift.
Despite their genuine or hypocritical commitment to zoning, rotation, or a semblance of ‘turn by turn,’ there is no intra-party or inter-party consensus on the roster for zoning, rotation or power distribution. That is why at the time many people expect the ruling party to be looking “downward,” the opposition party is looking “upward”.
