Without dispute, the main issue in Nigeria’s politics today is Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. The question, as it was asked in the days of the indomitable Awo, is whether you are with him or not.
Shortly after informing President Muhammadu Buhari about his intention to run for President, a great movement started springing up. Across the six geo-political zones, the race is gathering momentum. Ebonyi State Governor Dave Umahi and Moses Ayom have also thrown their hats into the ring. If the presidential ticket of the ruling party is zoned to the South through a categorical statement, Senate Whip Orji Kalu said he will vie.
Among the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) aspirants are: former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and ex-Senate Presidents Anyim Pius Ayim and Bukola Saraki, while Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal and his Bauchi State counterpart, Senator Bala Mohammed, are warming up.
To many observers, Tinubu, who appears to be the aspirant with a difference, is on a crucial scale. Also, in the view of some others, a popularity test is in the offing.
The Jagaban Borgu stands before the mirror of history. What is discernable? A national and continental asset; a financial surgeon, a consummate politician, an astute administrator, a tested, trusted and tolerant leader, experienced tutor and competent mentor, a political megastar, philanthropist, risk taker, a man of foresight, detribilised actor, an apostle of unity in diversity, a realist and strategist, welfarist ideologue, statesman, and a citizen of the world. The charm, the magnetism, the credentials are intimidating.
A loyal party man, Tinubu has a track record of a party builder, a bridge builder and a moulder of men.
But the primary will not be a walkover for the eminent politician. The stakes are high for Nigeria. Indisputably, Tinubu is a workaholic and a go-getter. Yet, the obstacles are formidable. But courage is an arsenal. Incisive wit is a weapon. Tactics are not in short supply. All calculations will, in the final analysis, be moderated by the God-factor.
For any aspirant to get the ticket or lift the crown, the support base should be solid. Alliances should be steady, and the structure should cut across, giving an impetus to the evolution of a pan-Nigerian movement.
There are many hurdles to cross. There will be screenings in the court of public opinion. Hired character assassins will be on the prowl. Predictably, the social media will be grossly abused. Attention may shift from governance to politicking. There will be a clash of analyses. Understandably, the polity may be polarised.
The position of the President on succession is crucial; so is the support of other influential party stalwarts, blocs and other forces within and outside the party.
Also, the mobilisation of zonal support and cross-regional endorsements are vital.
At the first stage, which is the primary, decision makers will be few. Party leaders, or delegates, will decide the fate of contenders at the shadow poll. Later, Nigerians will decide at the general election.
The ultimate decision will have implications for the future of Nigeria. It is, therefore, a period of sober reflection on leadership recruitment in Nigeria. The eye of the world is on the most populous Black nation on earth as it prepares for 2023.
Those against Tinubu may not likely relent. But they are not likely to wax stronger as time passes by. They have their reasons for objecting to his entry into the race. It is within the framework of human rights to take a position. But they may be greatly troubled by their lack of rational, persuasive and convincing explanations. Not all the stories and hearsay they fabricate, or will concoct, can stand the test of time. They may fizzle out as tissues of lies, which may boomerang to hunt them.
Those behind the fabrication may be motivated by envy or jealousy. It is in the character of Nigerian politics, which is devoid of affection and sustained by blind antagonism. The reasons being projected by foes may stem from bile, owing to their inability to match the credentials, strategy, structure, mass following, and rising profile of a political warhorse who has a reputation for consistently thriving in adversity.
This category of subjective critics has sworn to stop the frontline contender at the presidential primary of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) later in the year. They are resenting his life-long ambition to serve Nigeria the same way he served Lagosians between 1999 and 2003.
Their tactics include blackmail, character assassination, campaign of calumny and propaganda designed to whip up sentiments, shape public opinion and influence perception.
Columnists and other media writers are even going to the extreme now. They manufacture unfounded allegations and encourage the social media to spread their falsehoods.
But the long distance runner is never distracted. Determined and focused, the APC stalwart is on the firing line, intensifying his consultations and mobilisation, conscious of the reality that while he had groomed some of the former lieutenants-turned detractors the requisite rudimentary administrative skills, they never mastered deft and superior skills which they can now deploy to run him out of the race.
As powerful or influential this category may be, they are actually the minority in numerical strength, despite their affluence, their exposure to federal politics and resources, and the emergency structures they are packaging in a hurry. Only a few of them can even come out as surrogates to stare from afar at the proverbial Ogedegede bird, who has stormed the market, and, as it is said in Yoruba land, no other bird dares make noise again.
Tinubu never groomed them to destroy him. Analysts have berated them for a shortfall in historical perception, vision and loyalty when it is required most. But such is the nature of politics in contemporary Nigeria.
Since the leader has never approached the struggle for power in a do-or-die manner, he has stayed focused, forging ahead with hope, optimism, and superlative confidence, strengthening the bridge of understanding he has constructed over the years and leaving the jesters behind. He is not swayed by the antics of backbiters.
Within the Tinubu camp, the place of some old associates is becoming desolate and in this electioneering, their seats will be taken over by other faithful.
But would men of Tinubu’s stature in the future not be discouraged? Would they still emulate him by nurturing and opening doors of opportunities for their disciples, if they are instructed by the realities of the moment as underscored by attempted or real sabotage by some allies?
However, the consolation is that more fanatical supporters are also joining the train. Those with Tinubu are bold, brave and courageous, like himself. They share the same conviction. While foes are inventing theories and generating controversies about birth, age, certificate and public record of ser vice, matters that have been over-flogged and resolved years ago, as well as ethnicity and religion, the groundswell of support is fast crystalising into a national platform pushing for a new socio-political order under a new government of continuity in post-Buhari period. Though the vehicle is moving, the mockers have not yet arrived at the park.
According to keen observers, governance is not a tea party. Part of the challenges of 2015 and 2019 will still be carried over to 2023. Nigerians yearn for relief from the worsening insecurity, soaring unemployment, pervasive corruption and a rickety economy.
They seek answers to the refineries that are not working, diversification that is moving at a snail speed, foreign investment that is not arousing much interest, industrialisation that is barely rolling, ethnic and religious tensions that is rending the nation and exacerbated by nepotism, as well as lack of national unity that is polarising the people.
They want solutions to infrastructural decay, conditions that make industrial action compelling, the contentious national question, problems of intergovernmental relations between federal authorities and states, and mounting debt.
What is Tinubu bringing into the race? What is he offering Nigerians? Answers to these will be provided when he unfolds his manifestos. But definitely, as pointed out by numerous individuals and groups rooting for his candidature, the former Lagos State governor has an antecedent and pedigree. He will be bringing his wealth of experience, his exposure, creativity, passion for development, capacity for talent hunt, vision of a better society, maturity, sagacity, and proven competence to bear on governance, if elected.
The consensus is that Tinubu will replicate his achievements as Lagos State governor on a grand scale at the centre. Therefore, his ambition is in national interest.
During his erstwhile administration, the colourful politician was not found wanting. He had taken the politics of Lagos West by storm in the short-lived Third Republic, when, as a green horn, or new breed, as they were called, he polled the highest votes as a Social Democratic Party (SDP) senator. In the National Assembly, he was not a bench warmer. In those days of diarchy, he never compromised principles. He had, along with fellow compatriots, refused to dance to the tune of the military as he joined forces with progressive elements to resist the elongation of military rule. The political class, nevertheless, lost the battle for the de-annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election results and the unifying mandate of its symbol, the late Bashorun Moshood Kashimaawo Olawale (MKO) Abiola. His tenure as a federal legislator ended through the barrel of General Sani Abacha’s gun in a coup d’etat on November 17, 1993.
Tinubu never wavered in spirit. After his release from detention, he escaped abroad, becoming one of the arrowheads of the now defunct National Democratic Coalition (NADECO). If there was no NADECO, the military would have continued to toy with the destiny of Nigeria beyond 1999.
That was the year he was elected as governor of Lagos, following the conclusion of the General Abdulsalami Abubakar transition programme. With the State Executive Council (Exco) of talents he set up, governance was never approached with levity. Many of his commissioners later rose to national political prominence: vice-president, governors, ministers, National Assembly members, all on the progressive platform. Tinubu’s marks are visible across the sectors. He defended education, fought the infrastructure battle, protected the health sector, and fostered effective political inclusion.
Under his leadership, Lagos lived to its billing as a mini-country shouldering enormous national, sub-regional and continental responsibilities. From far and near, many Nigerians migrated to Lagos in search of real and imagined greener pastures.
The former governor took certain decisive steps, with the interest of Lagos as the bedrock. He embarked on an aggressive revenue generation. From N600 million monthly internally generated revenue (IGR), the state now generates around N30 billion. Tinubu initiated the Independent Power Project (IPP), which was frustrated by the Federal Government. Following agitations by Lagosians, he created additional 37 local council development areas (CDAs). When the Federal Government seized the state’s allocation, it did not only survive under Tinubu, it also thrived. The security trust fund, LASTMA, BRT were in the pipeline before he left office in 2007.
In 2003, he became the last man standing after the curious political earthquake swept across the Southwest. As the opposition leader, he and his compatriot embarked on rescue mission, reclaiming Oyo, Ondo, Osun, Ogun, Ekiti and Edo.
In 2007, he handed over to a competent successor, Babatunde Fashola, who built on his achievements.
Also, his leadership role manifested in the successful fusion of legacy parties, the formation of the APC, the participation of the Southwest in mainstream politics for the first time, and the consummation of the progressive alliance that culminated in the victory of President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 and 2019.
Although he has not directly been part of the current administration, Tinubu has always supported the Buhari administration. On some occasions, his interventions, which aptly underscored his capacity for problem-solving, have doused tension in the ruling party and the polity.
His bid for higher service is informed by his desire to add value, to make a difference and build on the gains of democracy. It is up to the party and the people to decide.
