Category: Saturday

There  is no denying that  the major security threats   to  the stability of the Nigerian  nation today   are the Boko  Haram  insurgency in the North  East, the Fulani  herdsmen forceful  incursion to the South, nationwide  kidnapping   and  the  banditry in the North western  states of the nation. We  do not need a soothsayer  to tell  us that  if care is not taken  the nation  will slide to anarchy or  another civil war similar  to the one we fought  to  stop  Biafra.  This time  around however religion  seem  to be an un derlying factor  in terms  of   prevailing    cultural  values  which  seem   to have changed for  the worst in terms of ethics and  the religious philosophy  of  the  aggrieved  parties  in the polity. We   now have people    and institutions   which one way  or the other  have   attacked  not only the authority of the state but  have   also established  an    immoral  mantra  that  money  can  buy anything and  that  those  who  have power  and money  can  always get away  with  murder or  anything. This  is happening   regardless  of the rule of law  that we profess to practice  in our peculiar  type  of ‘end justifies  the means democracy’    that  seems  to be perched   dangerously  on the edge of  a precipice in the last  few  months.

I   call   this    phenomenon or change Cliff  edge  politics   and   it can  be characterized as the politics  of  change that  cannot  be managed because  as  someone said  sometime  ago,  change  management  is an  oxymoron. But  to say  that one cannot  foresee the looming change is  to  me   a fallacy  for  the simple reason  that   the  consequences  of  some actions and inactions  are so clear  and predictable that  it  is an  exercise  in delusion    to think  that  they  will  not  happen.  The  scale  may  not  be manageable   but  the consequences are predictable and  mostly, are  not lost  in  plain sight.

That  unfortunately   is the situation  that  Nigeria  finds itself   with  regard  to the security  threats  I have  identified  before   and  I  will  show  why  later. It  is the same situation that  the UK  finds itself   with  its Brexit  referendum of 2016 and  the emergence  this week   of  Boris  Johnson  as the new  and  14th  PM of  Britain in the  era of Queen  Elizabeth 11. Of  course  that is  also  why the US has   a leader  like  Donald  Trump  who  is  overturning  American   values  and culture  in  away  never seen  before since he won the US  presidency  in 2016.  However   for  now  I  will  show  the   various  developments in Nigeria,  especially, and   Britain   that  illustrate   in these  nations that  their lack  of  moral  values and    mindless   pursuit   of   power  have  led    to  their present state  of  political anxiety, uncertainty    and insecurity. I will  also  show  that  the dismal  changes going on in these nations   did  not happen  overnight   and  that  they  did  not  walk  blindfolded   into  the brick walls  that  now  engulf  their  political  systems and government. They   got  to  the precarious  political  tension and change  going on in their  society with  their  eyes  wide open and  with  knowledge  of the predictable consequences   of their  actions , policies  and inactions.

Starting with  Nigeria  it is clear  that  the  handwriting  had been on the wall  for sometime .Myetti Allah, the umbrella body  for  the Fulani  herdsmen  is  a recent  phenomenon.  But  now it has been  ranked on the same  level  with  major  cultural  groups like Arewa,  Ohaneze  and Afenifere  by the presidency. Myetti  Allah  in my view is like a trade  union or  occupational  institution with  the task of  protecting the interests  of herdsmen. Now  its  voice  is loudest  in telling off the rest  of the nation that  the herdsmen  must  have their way    with    their   cattle, with   impunity   all   over Nigeria.   They    also   have their  say,   all the way.  And  from all  indications  Myetti   Allah has the ears of the government  far  more than  the other cultural  groups   in the  nation  which  are  now treated  like noisy   dinosaurs   and anachronisms    by  the presidency .Similarly   the  Shiites  Muslims in Nigeria  have  been taking  the law into their hands  for  sometime. They  attacked  the police  and  killed  innocent Nigerians in   a  demonstration in Abuja  this week. Before  that they  had  attacked the National  Assembly  and  we  have not  heard that  any of them  had  been  arraigned  as a deterrent. Their   grouse  is that their leader  and his wife have  been  detained  and  a court order  to release them  has  been  flouted by government  which  is still detaining  the couple . But  two  wrongs  cannot   make  a right. Government  should  not flout  court  orders  un less  it  is  claiming  that  we run  a government  that does   not respect    the rule of  law.  The  Shiites  too  cannot  be fighting the government  boldly  on the streets  as  that  is an  insurgency  which  is treason against  the Nigerian  state  and the punishment is    the   death  penalty.  But  the odds  have  been clear  to both sides  ever  since  and the  consequences of taking on a government   that  does  not respect its own  courts  can  only  be more  insecurity  and predictable  anarchy. There  is therefore  urgent  need  for  both parties  to  pull back  from the brink   of this  violent  change of  confrontation in  dealing with each other.

It  is  needless  to mention  that  Islam  is a ‘driving force  of the tension  in the land. To  say  that  is not to  acknowledge that  Islam  is  not a religion  of peace.  But  what of Christianity  that is the next  major  religion  in Nigeria.? For  any Nigerian  especially a Christian  like me to gloat  at Muslims  because of Boko  Haram and  the Shiites or Myetti  Allah is to behave like the proverbial ostrich with the head  buried in the sand.  This  is  because the so  called Pentecostal  or conservative churches  have unleashed such  a drive of materialism  on their  members that is driving  them to penury in the quest  for salvation. Salvation is being peddled like  the Popes sold  indulgencies in the days when the Church was the state in ancient  history.  Financial  targets are  being imposed on church  goers and  it is being   made imperative that such targets  are kept or such  churches  and their  leaders   are mocked as ungrateful  for  God’s  mercies  when  they  do not meet such targets. When  they  do  their  sins are  forgiven  and their  prosperity  guaranteed. It  is like the prosperity  gospel  that has been the flagship of the American  led pastors in  Nigeria who  preach that God  as  it were did not create anyone  to be poor. That  explains  why  pastors in Nigeria  today  are the most  eligible  bachelors and  clergy  men and their families  look  healthier   and   better   fed  than their  thinning,  hungry  looking,   ever   complaining    and angry  congregation. To  me such  ecclesiastical  tyranny  and  repression  is on the same scale  as the violence and  terrorism of Fulanisation  and   Islamisation.

Religious  repression in any form is unethical  as the Bible  has always reiterated  down  the ages that  you  cannot  serve God  and Mammon. Religious  leaders in their  commercialization  drive  should  be told  that the principle of  Caveat Emptor, Buyer  Beware can  be spiritual  too and it flows  up and down. They  too  can  bring the change that pulls Nigeria back  from the brink to  promote  peace  and whittle  down the prospects  of instability  or insecurity   starring us in the face for now.

In  the case of the UK  and its  Brexit  ordeal,  moral  values  too took a decline along the way that  made Boris Johnson  the new PM this  week. Boris’ journey  to 10  Downing Street   illustrates the nature of  UK politics in the Brexit  era.  Mendacity  played a major  role. The  Brexiteers  led by Boris frightened  the British  falsely on the cost  of maintaining  UK  membership   of the EU and  the people  believed  them  only to  find  out after the referendum of 2016 to leave the EU, that  the figures did  not  add up  on  the cost  of membership.  In  addition the Cameron  government was so confident the voters would vote Remain that it  did not have  a plan  to exit . The  EU leaders found this  hard   to  believe but sought  to deter a break up of the EU by  making the divorce costly  for  the UK. Now  that arch Brexiteer Boris Johnson  is in the saddle  one can  foresee a real Brexit  but there is no doubting that a house built on a foundation of sand  and false  claims  cannot stand. The  change in leadership in Britain last week  is going to be a bitter pill  for  both the EU and  UK   to swallow and  is going to be a huge test of the Monarchical  and Parliamentary System that  has  been  the  pride of British  democracy.

It used  to be said  that   the  monarchy  is  the backbone and stability  of British  democracy  and  there is a saying in Political  Science that ‘with the Queen in Buckingham Palace,  every   Briton  sleeps well  in his bed ‘.  Certainly, whether   that  sleep    is  sound  or disturbed  will  be determined  by  the premiership of Boris  Johnson  in the coming days and months of  haggling over a No  Deal  Brexit . Once  again long live the Federal  Republic of Nigeria.

In the era of fake news, rampant social media and elections hacking that we are in nowadays,  credibility and fair hearing seem to have taken a flight out of the window of both human relations and governance.  Indeed   the  conduct of global  diplomacy, international trade  and regional  politics have bent in the direction of US President  Donald Trump’s daily  tweets on important   issues  like trade  and tariffs, global  and local  migrations and  especially  the prospects of the third world  war starting from  the much respected and much  protected Strait  of  Homuz  from where  most of the world’s oil  is transported  to Europe  and the rest  of the world .

In   addition,  the world’s leading news organisations and media giants, in taking on Donald Trump’s tweets and undoing his credibility,  have behaved like  the proverbial  ostrich with its head  buried in the sand. Global  news   merchants   and controllers  have submitted  their credibility,     professionalism  ,   and  integrity    to sensationalism and     wild  spontaineity  in allowing leaks  to take priority  over  facts  and in the process threatening  the conduct  of diplomacy, international  relations  and  consequently  the political stability  of nation  states as we know them  today . Nothing   can be more  appropriate  in illustrating this than  this   week’s  resignation of the UK ambassador  in the US  over  the publication of a confidential advice he gave to the British  government and the  leaking of that letter to which  the US  President hurled  insults at the Ambassador  and asked US  diplomats  not to deal with the unfortunate  Ambassador. To  me  the British  government  has succumbed  to blackmail  from the US President  in allowing  its ambassador  to  resign when  it should  have rejected such  resignation,  recall   its ambassador   and   deny  the content  of the leaked letter. That  would  have been  good  old  diplomacy  that  allowed for  the maintenance of  permanent   national  interests at  all  costs  and  not  personal  relations  with Donald  Trump  which   the UK authorities  have allowed to influence  their decision  on the Ambassador .

It  will  certainly   not  be the first  time  that a denial   is used to nail  the coffin  of a real or  potential deterioration of bilateral and    international  relations or  even  multiethnic relations in any  political  system, be it  a confederation or a federation   even   like  Nigeria    and  I will  give examples . Former  French  President Valery  Giscard  D’estang    was once accused  of  taking an  unusual  gift  from another Head of state, President Jean  Bokassa  of the Central African Republic  but  he quelled  the rumours just  by saying –‘ I  issue  a categorical  denial  and a contemptuous  one’ and the usually cynical  French  public believed  him.  The  scandal  died because the French president  had credibility and  the African  leader  said to have offered him the gift  was bereft  of integrity  and had a reputation  for  corruption.

In  the same way  in Nigeria  the  government  seems to have put  to rest anxiety  and  apprehension over  the  planned  Ruga  settlements all  over  Nigeria in some  designated  states,   by stopping the project. But  bureaucrats  and government agents involved in the venture  say  it is a laudable  project that would benefit  the  nation  and cannot  be stopped . In declaring  the Ruga  project stopped the government calmed nerves  of those   against  it in the interest of national  stability,   and  security. While   one can call  that a good example of using the big lie to reduce tension in the polity one wonders why  the British, doyen of double  talk diplomacy  suddenly  succumbed   to  Trumperian  tweets and  abandoned  their  own brand of diplomacy  which  has always  been  to deny  the obvious  at all  times.

Obviously  the UK  government could not take on Trump  because  it  is headless  and PM Theresa  May  is on the way  out  while   those  to succeed  her  are  busy  on how to succeed  her and  Brexit ,  deal  or  no deal. Trump , being the Master of the deal,   this time  around   has  undermined  British  leadership  and diplomacy  and has  exposed the UK  as  the junior partner or underdog in the much  vaunted and overrated special  relations  between the two  nations.

Let  us  now look at  the role of  the British  press in the  entire  UK-US  diplomatic  leak.  In  publishing the letter  which  the newspaper  knew  was confidential diplomatic advice  to government the newspaper  violated its own  professionalism and  patriotism  as a publisher . It  has put itself in the  same league  with Wiki Leaks and the US military computer analyst  who  released US  government information   and  is  now hiding in Russia. What  is wrong in confiding  in the UK  government  that  it has the information and  the government  should  put in place security not to allow  future  leaks?  Obviously  the prospect of  making  public  ridicule  of  Donald  Trump  was too attractive  for  the publication to enjoy  that  it did  not take into  consideration  the career of  the ambassador   when  indeed  what  he wrote was  also  the idea  of  the   truth  circulating  in the anti Trump  western media  generally . The  timid UK  government has said  it would put  in place a probe on the how  and why of the leak  but that is like locking the stable doors after the  horses  have  bolted.

Lastly  let  us look  at the security  situation in Nigeria     and  the storming of the National  Assembly in Abuja  by  the Shia Muslims  whose leader has  been in state  custody  for some time. The  report  was most alarming because the  legislators  were  said  to be unaware  of what was happening around them  for  sometime.  That  means  that   the security of our legislators  was in jeorpady .  The  attackers  must  have good intelligence  to  know when  to  attack  and  the vulnerability  of the security  of  our  legislature .  That  is very  bad indeed and it shows the barrenness  of the big lie we  have   been told  that  the  security of the  Nigerian  state  is  guaranteed . This  same  religious sect  waylaid  the  entourage  of the Nigerian army  Chief  some time in Zaria  . This  was how  Maitasine  started  before it was  mowed down in Kano  by the  military  regime  in power  later. Boko  Haram   we  are told is  being  contained  but  it keeps  killing Nigerians in the  North East  without  relenting  and  it is clear  that  it is a big  lie  that  it has been  defeated. While  it may  be alright   to  tell  the big   lie  to  make  people quiet  it is unsafe to tell  it in the face of   terrorists  besieging  the National  Assembly. Just  like the Storming of the  Bastille during the French  Revolution  of  1789  altered  the face of democracy in France Nigerian  legislators  should put their  house  and  security  in order. This  is because if they  are  not safe in  making laws, then  the rule  of  law is indeed under threat in Nigeria. And   that is not a lying  matter, big or small.