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Category: Saturday

When the ministers are evaluated…

Nigerian democracy is fashioned after that of the United states but then there are differences in the actual practice of the system owing to a variety of factors most of which are rooted in culture and other social and political nuances. Sometimes, political analysts seem to debate whether really the Nigerian democracy is more like the American model or very different. The basic structure of the two systems seems somewhat similar. The presidential structure and the two arms of the legislature are quite structurally similar but functionally different.

The functionality of most democratic systems is dependent on the decision of the people to adopt systems that work for the interest of everyone. The focus of democracy is the people. Every action of the elected must be to advance the welfare of the people. Failure of any system of government to work for the people breeds contempt for the leadership irrespective of the continent. Governments exist to cater for the welfare of the people. When this one role is neglected, anarchy often sets in in different forms.

Nigeria’s return to civilian democracy in 1999 has undergone several metamorphoses. There have been challenges in leadership at all levels but progress is being made in certain areas but the fact that there are a huge number of citizens living in multi-dimensional poverty begs the question, what dividends have the people gotten from successive administrations in the Nigeria political space?

Sadly, there is a somewhat flawed focus on the presidency as the magic wand of development and somehow the people ignore the roles of every elected individual from the ward, state to the national assembly and even the appointees at all levels of governance especially the federal ministers. Most of the state and federal appointees are often not held accountable. Ministers and commissioners are screened by the state houses of assembly and the senate before their inauguration but more often than not, it is mere perfunctory function as some mundane considerations often overshadow need for due diligence in screening individuals nominated by either governors or the executive. This sometimes is the beginning of the failure to deliver by teams in the executive. Competence, experience and track record of performance either as private or public operators are often taken for granted.

In a country with much divided political sphere, there is a subtle sense of monopoly that winners seem to take it all. So most times the winning party often tends to insist on appointing its ‘loyal’ members or even in some cases, some campaign sponsors or their cronies to positions they sometimes are not very qualified to handle effectively. While reward for party loyalty is not a crime, functionality ought to be the deciding factor for appointments in climes where political actors are held to account.

In the last eight years, a lot happened both positively and negatively but the bottom-line is that the country has 133million people living in multi-dimensional poverty with an additional 4million in the first quarter of 2023 in addition to more than 20million out of school children. The insecurity level in the country has never been this high. There are dilapidated infrastructure, high under-five malnutrition, high child and maternal mortality and a general decline in the healthcare sector among other evelopment problems.

It is pertinent to recall that there were ministers and heads of agencies and parastatals that were in charge of the ministries and they had huge allocations that they defended in the national assembly for the budget appropriation committees. What oversight functions did those ministries get? How many ministers were held to account? How many where sacked for incompetence? How many did the political party leadership call to order?

Accountability in leadership is the foundation of good democracy dividends which ultimately adds up to development. Development happens when there is a conscious and deliberate effort to work for it to happen. Given the history of Nigerian democracy since 1999, there was Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as the coordinating minister of the economy but this administration is the first to appoint a Special Adviser on Policy and Coordination of the ministries. Hadiza Bala Usman, the former Managing Director of the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) had been appointed by President Tinubu after his inauguration.

Many watchers of the Nigerian economy welcomed the appointment of Hadiza for this role because that might help in putting all the ministers on their toes. The President himself had during a recent retreat titled, “Delivering on the Renewed Hope Agenda” organized for ministers, presidential aides, permanent secretaries and other top government functionaries issued the warning, “…you will sign a bond (of performance) with me, if you are performing, nothing to fear, if you miss the objective, if you don’t perform, you leave us We must take 50million people out of poverty”. The President said that the bond would be reviewed periodically.

This administration has the highest number of ministers at 48 and as such the expectations on the administration is very high and the hope is that each one of them would perform to expectations of both the president, the people and the larger global community in a world so interlinked every action in one end of the world reverberates in another geographic setting.

The Roundtable Conversation believes that this present circumstance is welcome as the individuals now realize that there is a gatekeeper who has been charged to take stock of their performances and report to the president. The implications of non-performance are dire. They had all signed the ‘performance bond’ and must remember that the die is cast.

It is however very intriguing to watch the actions of a few of the ministers in the last few months. The exaggerated post-inauguration celebrations seem to have faded into the times and the people are eager to count the gains. When a minister is performing, the people would be the recipient of the good works because the works they do can be evaluated not just by the Hadiza-led agency but by the people who can do the evaluation of both the tangibles and the intangibles all of which contribute to the welfare or lack of same for the people.

Read Also: Tinubu receives Uzodimma, Ododo over poll victory

The Roundtable Conversation like many Nigerians across the world has been watching the ministers, aides and all the appointees of the administration as they struggle to live up to their performance bonds. Some are quite regular in the media, some are speaking through their aides about their plans and programmes of action and it becomes very interesting to watch but a bit difficult to understand. While it is good to give the public information about their plans, narratives in the media does not replace real performance deliverables.

The Minister of Interior, Hon. Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, seems to have started on a good note but not too loquacious over his admirable first steps to revamp the ministry. There are reports that the perennial problems with international passport issuance seems to be easing off based on his intervention. A few days ago, he flagged off the Correctional Center Decongestion, a project that has been on the list of Civil rights and Justice advocates in Nigeria and outside Nigeria. He has equally flagged off the release of 4068 of the 80,804 inmates in the 253 Correctional facilities nationwide.

His ministry has opened the first phase of E-passport offices that will reduce processing delays in Europe. The Minister has been silently working in ways that has not been very common in the past few years. The Minister seems to have brought a youthful energy and ICT knowledge to the ministry. It might not be uhuru yet for the ministry but the morning seems to show the day.

On the contrary, the Minister of Women Affairs and Social Development, Uju Kennedy- Ohanenye, has been quite in the face of the media for a cocktail of reasons, some commendable others not so amirable. She recently stirred the hornets’ nest by vowing to sue the United Nations (UN) for allegedly mismanaging funds meant for Nigeria. Her counterpart at the Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development, Dr. Beta Edu seems to have retracted from her many visits from one media to the other talking about the intention of her ministry to take 133million people out of poverty. Her explanations seem to be somewhat very vague on statistics of the Social Register and real plans that would be impactful in the long run. These might be very baby steps for these ministers but the people expect they should realize that no one needs a torch to see the sun.

Many of the other minsters have been possibly behind the scene working and the people are eager to see and feel the impact of their actions. What they ought to realize is that political and economic dynamics have changed and the people are now better armed with information to monitor performances of each minister.

The past situation where most non-performing minister escaped without being held accountable might be in the past because the president and the Hadiza-led unit might not be too patient with non-performers. Nigerian economy is dependent on the dedication and commitment of these ministers and expectations are high. The Roundtable Conversation has all eyes on all ministers.

The dialogue continues…

November 25, 2023
Issues in the BIK polls

Just as was the case with the 25th February presidential election and the March 18th governorship elections, losers in the off-cycle elections in Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi states, which held last Saturday, November 11, across party lines have roundly rejected the outcome of the polls accusing the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) of brazenly rigging the exercise in collusion with those who emerged winners. It is significant that the parties in control of the governments in the three states emerged victorious in their respective spheres of control indicating that the power of incumbency, though no longer an overwhelming factor in determining electoral loss or victory, remains a critical variable with enormous influence on the outcome of elections.

Equally noteworthy is the fact that just as it was with the general elections held earlier in the year, parties and candidates applauded the INEC and the security agencies where they won while condemning these entities as biased and compromised where they lost. It is thus obvious that the only condition for parties and their candidates to accept and affirm the integrity and credibility of INEC and other stakeholders in the election management process is if they are triumphant.

In congratulating the Bayelsa State governor, Mr Duoye Diri, on his re-election for a second term, a victory which he said was “against all odds” despite the governor’s emphatic win, the PDP presidential candidate in the 2023 polls, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, was indirectly admitting that the electoral umpire conducted an exercise which reflected the will of the electorate in the state. Yet, the Waziri Adamawa was vehemently critical of the conduct of the elections in Imo and Kogi states where the APC candidates won and his party lost and, once again, chided INEC for allegedly conducting “the worst-ever general election in the country” on February 25. The APC candidate in Bayelsa, Mr Timipre Silva, a former governor of the state, who scored 110,000 votes to Governor Diri’s winning 175,000 votes has rejected the results alleging that the electoral and security agencies manipulated the exercise in favour of the governor.

Even though Atiku continues to blame election rigging and the complicity of an allegedly compromised INEC for his dismal performance in the last presidential election as well as the PDP’s desultory electoral outings post-2015, the veteran presidential contender appears to have put his hands on the most critical reason for the APC’s triumph over the opposition in recent elections despite the ruling party’s less than stellar record of developmental performance in the last eight years. Receiving the executive committee of the Inter-Party Advisory Committee Nigeria, which paid him a courtesy call, he advocated the merger of opposition political parties to present a formidable front against the ruling party in future elections.

Accusing the APC of deliberately trying to foist a one-party dictatorship on the country, he said, “If we don’t come together to challenge what the ruling party is trying to create, our democracy will suffer for it, and the consequences of it will affect generations yet unborn.” Atiku is probably gradually realizing that the PDP and not INEC gifted the APC victory in the February 25 presidential election by fragmenting into PDP, LP, and NNPP while also having the Nyesom Wike-led G5 governors as an opposition within the party going into the election.

The constellation of forces that have unceasingly sought to delegitimize the February 25 presidential election as well as destroy the institutional integrity of INEC as well as the personal credibility of its Chairman, Professor Yakub Mahmoud, have intensified their efforts after last Saturday’s off-cycle polls. A number of Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) addressed news conferences vehemently denouncing the conduct and outcome of the polls, particularly in Imo and Kogi. While they alleged massive rigging of the elections in the two states, these groups did not suggest who they thought were the genuine winners of the elections there.

Read Also: JUST IN: INEC presents Certificates of return to Ododo, Deputy

What is becoming more and more apparent is that many CSOs including election observer groups have become aligned with political parties and pursue partisan agendas in the guise of patriotic altruism. Rufai Oseni, the incurably cynical Arise TV program anchor, this week joined in the generalized condemnation of the polls, excoriating the INEC and asserting with characteristic magisterial ignorance that, after 2015, the conduct of elections in the country has regressed to the utterly despicable elections of the early 2000s. Nothing could be more untrue.

Let’s take the Kogi governorship poll for instance. The major candidates, Ahmed Usman-Ododo of the APC, Murtala Ajaka of the SDP and Dino Melaye of the PDP scored 446,237; 259,052, and 46,362 votes respectively. Could Ododo’s victory be attributed to a massive rigging of the election as alleged by the opposition or are there other factors that can credibly explain the pattern of the voting in the election? In the first place, did APC deserve victory in the poll on the basis of the performance of the outgoing Yahaya Bello administration? I don’t think so.

Bello’s propaganda far outweighed the actual record of achievement of his administration. Against the background of the abundant natural resources of the state, her strategic geographical location, and the immense potential of its population, the Yahaya Bello administration was as lacking in vision and competence as its predecessors. But the election was not necessarily about governmental performance or development as about the political dynamics of its ethnic component parts.

Both Ododo and Ajaka won emphatic victories in their respective ethnic redoubts, the Igbira and Igala in Kogi Central and Kogi East Senatorial districts respectively but Melaye performed desultorily in his native Okun land in Kogi West Senatorial district. Apart from winning massively in Kogi Central Senatorial district, Ododo’s victory was substantial because of his no less impressive performance in Kogi West where he won in Mopa, Ijumu, Kabba-Bunu and Yagba-West Local Government Areas while coming a close second to the ADC candidate, Leke Abejide, in Yagba LGA. The voting pattern in the election can be understood against the historical fact that, relying on its dominant ethnic demography, the Igala ethnic group had maintained monopolistic control of the governorship of Kogi from the creation of the state in 1991 till the emergence of Bello as governor in 2015.

It was the unfortunate death of the late Abubakar Audu, candidate of the APC, shortly before the announcement by the INEC of his victory in the 2015 governorship election that enabled surreptitious elements in the President Muhammadu Buhari administration to mysteriously and controversially manipulate the emergence of Yahaya Bello to inherit Audu’s votes and become the first non-Igala governor of the state in this dispensation. But for these fortuitous circumstances, the Igala would have maintained their unbroken stranglehold on the tenancy of Lugard House.

To win re-election for his second term, Yahaya Bello had to resort to his ruthless ‘ra-ta-ta-ta’ scorched earth electoral tactics to overcome the overwhelming and otherwise insurmountable Igala numerical superiority. Going into the 2023 election, therefore, the fear of Igala ethnic hegemony would appear to be the beginning of wisdom particularly for the Okun people who have not been opportune to produce a governor since the creation of the state.

Substantial numbers of voters in Kogi West in last Saturday’s election were apparently persuaded that it would be much easier for power to pass over from an Igbira to Okun land after Ododo’s tenure than from an Igala man to the zone if Ajaka won. This largely explains the dynamics of the Kogi election even if the figures recorded by the APC in Kogi Central appear extraordinary and may yet spur the opposition to seek their judicial interrogation.

The election in Imo State was held under the shadow of the crisis between the Imo State government and the President of the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC), Comrade Joe Ajaero, a few days to the polls. Comrade Joe Ajaero, was in the state to lead workers in a protest against alleged unpaid salary arrears of over 20 months by the Senator Hope Uzodinma administration when he was rough handled and beaten up by those he claimed were thugs sponsored by the Imo State government. The state governor denied vehemently that any salary arrears were being owed pointing out that his administration was even paying a 13th month salary as incentive to workers.

Curiously, the Imo State Chapter of the NLC has till date not controverted Uzodinma thereby lending a degree of credence to suggestions that Ajaero’s actions were actuated by partisan considerations both as an indigene of the state and a fervent supporter of the Labour Party at national and state levels.

If indeed Uzodinma was owing 20 months’ salaries, the election offered the not inconsiderable number of workers in the essentially civil service state an opportunity to vote overwhelmingly against the APC in the state. To the contrary, Uzodinma scored a landslide of over 540,000 votes to Sam Anyanwu of the PDP’s 71,500 votes and Nneji Achonu of the LP’s 64,000 votes. Large numbers of Imo State workers trooped to government house, Owerri, to celebrate Uzodinma’s victory even as they refrained from participating in a nationwide strike called by the NLC to protest the brutalization of Ajaero in the state. However, the PDP and LP candidates have given INEC a 7-day ultimatum to cancel the election alleging that it was characterized by over voting, hijacking of electoral materials to private homes and other irregularities.

But are the performances of the PDP and LP in the Imo election any surprise? The answer is most certainly no. After Peter Obi’s impressive run in the February 25 presidential election, a performance fueled largely by his personal appeal to his admirers, the LP had fizzled out by the March 18 governorship elections in which it won only one state, Abia, and the trend has only continued in last Saturday’s off-cycle elections in which it did not win any of the three states in contention.

It is unlikely that Sam Anyanwu, candidate of the PDP in Imo, enjoyed the support of Honourable Emeka Ihedioha, the immediate past governor of the state whose election in 2019 was truncated by the Supreme Court which declared Uzodinma as the true winner of the election. Had Ihedioha been fielded as the candidate or carried along to enthusiastically support Anyanwu, the PDP would most certainly have offered the APC a far stiffer contest in Imo.

In contrast, Uzodinma enjoyed the endorsement of a former governor of the state, Senator Rochas Okorocha, while his pledge to ensure a rotation of power to Owerri Zone after his tenure must have been an attractive deal to a not insubstantial number of voters from that zone. It is instructive that Uzodinma won in all 27 LGAs of the state and the Imo State Council of Elders has since visited and congratulated him on his victory. While the LP and PDP candidates are calling for a cancellation of the election in the state, neither has claimed that he was triumphant in the exercise.

A common feature of the elections in the three states was the voter apathy that has been characteristic of our elections in recent times. One factor responsible for this is the increased use of technology that has helped to clean up the voters register and virtually eliminated the incidence of multiple voting that was witnessed in most elections before 2015. Again, the persistent and deliberate attempts to destroy the credibility of the INEC and the electoral process by desperate election losers have eroded the trust of large numbers of people in the system and they thus do not bother to vote.

The dominance of this negative and cynical narrative by such dishonest and anarchic voices must begin to be effectively countered while the National Assembly must continue to introduce new innovations into the Electoral Act to enhance further transparency and credibility in the conduct of elections and rebuild public trust in electoral institutions and processes. Furthermore, political parties, pressure groups and patriotic CSOs must intensify their efforts to educate, enlighten, and mobilize the citizenry to participate actively in the choice of those who govern them at all levels.

November 18, 2023
Fishing in troubled waters

Suddenly, chieftains of the Nigeria Football Federation (NFF) have woken up from their slumber to interrogate the 23-man squad list submitted by Super Eagles’ Head Coach, Jose Peseiro, for the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying matches against Lesotho and Zimbabwe. The story in town is that the Portuguese coach was queried to explain why players who are not regulars in their different European clubs found their names in the list of the invited Nigerian players for the 2026 FIFA World Cup against the two above-mentioned countries.

NFF’s query served on Jose Peseiro confirms fears in the past that foreign coaches run the rule over the federation’s technical committee by bypassing on the choice of players for different games. Football federations always insist on seeing the list of invited by speaking to the list to find out why those selected were the best in terms of how regularly they played for their European clubs. It is at such meetings that members with superior arguments impress it on the coaches to explain why the boy who scored four goals in the last six games is dropped for someone who has not scored since the league where he plays began 17 weeks ago.

It amounts to a failure of leadership if the federation members ask brilliant questions after the list has been released. One would have thought that the players’ list would have undergone robust analyses among members of the technical committee and the coach without necessarily lording it on the coach who to play and otherwise. Matches are won from the bench. A team populated by players who sparingly play for the European teams cannot compete.

Speaking at the pre-match press conference held on Wednesday in Uyo ahead of Thursday’s 2026 World Cup qualifying match against Lesotho, manager Jose Peseiro explained that Maduka Okoye opted out of the November qualifiers due to passport difficulties depending on what Peseiro meant by that excuse on Okoye’s behalf.

“I have confidence in our goalkeepers. Of course, in that moment Adeleye could not come because he didn’t play in Israel. Maduka could not come because of the problem with his passport,” Peseiro said at the pre-match conference.

“Uzoho was our goalkeeper in qualification. He only didn’t play one match, it was Adeleye who played against Sierra Leone. Now there’s Ojo and Amas. I believe in our goalkeepers, I believe in Uzoho also.”

Peseiro also defended his decision not to invite Hapoel Jerusalem star Adebayo Adeleye, stressing that Adebayo Adeleye the Nigerian has been inactive for his club since September this year. Dear Peseiro, please listen to yourself. Who recruited Peseiro?

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It is a big indictment on Peseiro that goalkeeper Okoye opted out of Nigeria’s two World Cup qualifiers after the list was made public. Bendel Insurance Goalkeeper, Amas Obasogie was invited to replace Okoye. What this shows clearly is that Peseiro didn’t speak to Okoye if he would be available to play in the two matches, especially after Francis Uzoho’s fumbling displays in the country’s last two matches. Besides, inviting Uzoho back to the Eagles for crucial World Cup qualifiers is a case of blind fixation on Peseiro’s part and kills he morale of players to give their best during training sessions, knowing that the coach already has his players he wants to field even if three of them are reporting for training with walking sticks. It could be that Okoye opted out of the games because Peseiro would always parade Uzoho as the team’s goalkeeper even if he kicks the ball into the net.

For Nigeria not to be made the laughing stock in the comity of soccer nations, Peseiro should be made to submit his technical reports for games played to the technical committee members to read and make their contributions. No foreigner can love our country more than us. The coach isn’t bound to do the members’ bidding since the buck stops on his desk. Nigeria is too big to always recruit visiting coaches for our matches, given the way in which our players play in Europe, the Americas, and in the Diaspora.

The World Cup ought to be an elixir of sorts for participating countries to introduce new players into their senior squads as replacements for either injury-prone players, the recuperating ones, and those who are aging and wouldn’t be able to compete at this competitive platform in the next four years. Indeed, the World Cup pens a new vista for players of countries who partook in the competition. The exemplary players end up being signed for huge sums of money by new clubs while those with subsisting contracts before the Mundial return to their different European clubs to secure more compelling wages to scare off moneybags’ teams from snatching them under the nostrils of their current employers.

Super Eagles defenders aren’t good enough. They expose Uzoho and other goalkeepers to mesmerising strikers who dribble past Eagles’ defender like hot knife through butter. One would have thought that Kenneth Omeuro had played his last game for Nigeria with the way the ease in which the Sierra Leoneans outran in the game played in Monrovia, Liberia. Not so with Peseiro who sends his list of invited players via Whatsapp to the key members of the team. Will NFF muster the courage to sack Peseiro before the next game if we hope to participate at the 2026 World Cup?

Every country always strive to look for value when recruiting coaches to prosecute their World Cup. And it is obvious that Peseiro isn’t money for value in Nigerians’ quest for another World Cup outing in 2026. This dream would soon become a nightmare, except NFF ask Peseiro without any form of hesitation. Lesotho is ranked 153rd in the world. Any country desirous of playing at the World should beat Lesotho. Beating Lesotho ought to be a stroll in the park with a savvy tactician. Shouldn’t we beg the NFF to allow someone else to handle the next game for a change? But would it be fair to sack Peseiro with the huge debts the country owes him?

Nigeria has the players to remain unbeaten in Group C to clinch the qualification ticket. We need to deemphasize experience in picking Super Eagles squad list. Countries have reduced the average playing age of their stars to between 22 and 26. It is the reason these countries are winners of big tournaments. Football is for the youth who acquire experience by playing regularly. This regular changes of players exists in countries with thriving nurseries with discernable playing patterns across their national soccer teams.

Other countries would have resolved the goalkeeping crises that Super Eagles is experiencing by going to their cadet teams to pick their goalkeepers unlike in Nigeria where we could even persuade a retired goalkeeper to return to the team. Need I name such retirees?

Academies which are nurseries for warehousing the game have been standardised to protect the sector and backed by law for effectiveness. It is at this level that countries’ playing patterns evolve depending on what the coaches feel could bring the best from their nationals. Standards are set for owning such academies including their curriculum to shut out quackery. These academies are registered by the country’s FA with the right synergy struck where players’ movement in and out of the country are documented.

The serious-minded soccer nations expose players from academies who also have the template to monitor those who did well and have juicy packages in big clubs in Europe, Americas and the Diaspora. These academies ensure that the players’ career paths are cut to fit their ambitions. Those of them eager to combine playing soccer with going to school are enrolled to be educated. They also have drawn up training schedules to suit their schools’ curriculum, knowing the importance of education when their career as soccer players is over. Nothing happens in such countries as an accident.

November 18, 2023
Unfinished battle for federalism

Nigeria, the most populous black nation-state in the world, appears to be in a fix.

For how long can it continue to pretend to be a federal nation-state?

No doubt, the “mere geographical expression” is retarded by a unitarist model masquerading as federalism. The solution is a return to a proper federal principle, and many believe that the current administration is in a vantage position to redress the injustice of centralisation.

The ‘skewed or lopsided federation’ is facing the most challenging test of survival. The Nigerian brand of federalism is on trial. To its intended beneficiaries, it is confusing, divisive, unproductive, provocative and fundamentally unjust. All over the country, feelings of anger and revolt by ethnic nations ooze from the fear of domination, marginalization, deprivations and injustice, making the trembling antagonistic ethnic groups to now brainstorm on how to re-define their place in the disputed Nigerian federation.

Indisputably, the beleaguered country has paled into a poor ethnically-segmented country battling to survive a unitary system, aptly foisted on it by military interlopers. Sixty three years after independence, there is a combative regression to the pre-independence battle cry for restructuring at a time developed countries expect the African sleeping giant to be a continental model of federal democracy.

Nigeria’s defective federal system has become its albatross. It is a skewed arrangement, with an inbuilt lopsided and marginalising distributive process that has heralded colossal injustice and induced intense agitations. The major bone of contention is the over-centralisation and monopolisation of power by a distant central government to the detriment of pauperised and disadvantaged component units in the heterogeneous country. The notion of unity in diversity has been displaced, owning to prolonged perceived structural defects and institutional deformities, which deny the reality of peculiarities in a plural society.

The country is enveloped by protracted identity, participation and distributive crises. In its current fragility, it totters on in a self-inflicted ‘federal decay.’ The troubled country reflects the awful picture of an amalgam of incompatible social formations. It is gradually being submerged in growing ethnic, religious and other centrifugal tensions.

Read Also: Fragile councils groaning under lopsided federalism

The victim of the identity crisis is national cohesion. The gains of national unity are wiped out by the revival of primordial sentiments. The inevitable emotional detachment from the deceitful federal conception constitutes an obstacle to the development of national outlook.

Also, participation crisis is accentuated by the struggle of ethnic champions for power at the centre because, until recently, the ‘sectional Federal Government’, which has monopolised state power and resources to the detriment of aggrieved federating units, blocked the channels of decentralisation.

Cries of despair and despondency by few surviving founding fathers and their lieutenants fill the air. Obviously, they are seized by nostalgia, having witnessed the adoption and practice of unfettered federalism from 1946 under the Richard and Macpherson constitutions, and in the First and Second Republics. To them, even at the twilight of life, true federalism is still the answer.

Can restructuring stem the loming disaster? Many subscribe to the compelling argument that restructuring will solidify federalism, foster good governance, give a sense of belonging to aggrieved regions and states, and restore hope. Thus, to salvage the edifice that was built on the false colonial foundation erected by Lord Fredrick Lugard in 1914, political leaders and other stakeholders are exploring the alternative route to nation building to avoid disintegration.

International agencies, which had previously alerted Nigeria to a prospect of a ‘failed state,’ are urging speed, warning that delay could be dangerous. The re-enactment of the Yugoslavian and Czechoslovakian experiences may be catastrophic for Nigeria and its neighbours.

Across the six geo-political zones, attention is being re-focused on the contentious national question. Along this line alone, he the politics of inclusive discussion is unhindered. There seems to be an agreement that Nigeria faces a perilous future, unless the current system gives way for a re-vitalised and workable federal process, variously described or interpreted by diverse stakeholders as ‘federal configuration,’ ‘federal redesign,’ ‘federal reformation,’ ‘review of federalism,’ federal re-configuration,’ federal renewal,’ ‘federal re-engineering,’ ‘true federalism and ‘political restructuring.’

In extreme cases, unguarded outbursts and calls for confederation or a loose federation, a re-worked federation, secession and outright war have been troubling. These extreme options are being advertised by rebellious militant groups, ‘sit-at-home’ campaigners and other invisible protesters in the Eastern Region.

There is no consensus on all the elements of restructuring on the front burner. Restructuring is a broad concept. But, there seems to be an agreement on the cardinal goal of restructuring. It presupposes the existence of a structure built on a faulty platform or foundation that requires to be rebuilt or rearranged.

Restructuring, in the view of Kunle Amuwo, political scientist and University of Ibadan teacher, is intended to lay an institutional foundation for a more just and equitable sharing of political space by multi-national groups cohabiting in a federal polity. Other advocates would agree with him that “the strategic objective seems to be the solidifying-or perhaps, merely engendering-of a sense of national community.”

The implication is that the resolution of the contentious national question is germane to peaceful co-existence among the diverse ethnic groups.

Restructuring is also suggestive of an inevitable compromise; a display of the spirit of political bargaining by the distraught component units of the potentially fragile federation. As Amuwo put it, “restructuring is a better appreciation of the need for tolerance and respect for civil and civic rights of both aggrieved ethnic majorities and marginalised ethnic minorities.” This line of thought is consistent with the position of ambivalent protesters, who despite their adamant position on restructuring, have reiterated their commitment to a united and indivisible Nigeria.

Although the clamour for restructuring is now new, it has now become the main issue in the polity. The debate was kicked-off in the eighties by the activist-lawyer, the late Chief Alao Aka-Bashorun, who called for the convocation of a Sovereign National Conference (SNC). Following the annulment of the historic 1993 presidential election won by the late Chief Moshood Abiola of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP), the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) and Afenifere, the pan-Yoruba socio-political organisation, intensified the clamour. But, what is remarkable is that past opponents of the agitation, including former military rulers and other prominent Northern leaders, have retraced their steps and lent their voices to the crusade. Former military and civilian President Muhammadu Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar have decried the evil of unitarism and endorsed the popular demand. Even, former Military President Ibrahim Babangida once admitted that it is the solution. Since restructuring has also become a campaign issue in general elections, many politicians are always threading the path of populism by reaching out to Nigerians on the borrowed platform of restructuring.

Two decades ago, Afenifere Deputy Leader, the late Chief Bola Ige, predicted that a cloud of uncertainty was hovering over Nigeria. He said the country may not survive the tragedy, unless there was an agreement among the tribes on the basis for cohabitation. “Do you Nigerians want to live together in the same country? If yes, on what terms?” he asked. Echoing the slain Attorney-General and Minister of Justice, the Yoruba Assembly also warned that Nigeria risked disintegration, if its defective structure is preserved and the modalities for peaceful co-existence are not spelt out and mutually agreed upon. The Ohaneze Ndigbo, the Southsouth Assembly, and the Middle Belt Forum are singing the same chorus.

Recently, in Ado Ekiti, foremost lawyer, Chief Afe Babalola and former Commonwealth Secretary-General Chief Emeka Anyaoku implored the Federal Government not to turn a deaf ear.

The pro-restructuring crusade woke up the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) from its slumber ahead of 2023 general election. Although the party adopted restructuring as a core campaign promise, no concrete step has been taken in that direction by the Federal Government it has midwifed since 2015 beyond the recent limited concession to states to venture into railway and mineral deposit extraction.

November 18, 2023
On need to resuscitate industries in SouthEast

As the availability of white collar jobs/ civil service continues to shrink drastically as against the rising number of unemployed youths, there is need for leaders, thinkers, policy makers, businessmen and stakeholders from the SouthEast Region to come together, collaborate and churn out a viable road map towards the resuscitation of industries in the region.

Such an effort or set of efforts if well implemented both individually and collectively will not only check the rising tides of unemployment presently experienced within the region but also its accouterments such as crime and youth restiveness which are seriously besetting the region and its inhabitants.

The SouthEast Region which used to be the second largest industrial hub after the South West Region has somewhat seen a number of its promising industries fold up owing to challenges such as the rising level of insecurity, poor economic policies of both the Federal and State governments and poor power supply amongst many other issues. Today, these industries which used to employ youths in their numbers have either had to shut down operations or at most scale down such operations, One finds out that such industries, no matter how profitable it’s business appeared to be had little or no chance against such aforementioned odds stacked up against these industries.

Research did show that the industries established before and within the First Industrial Plan(1962-1968) enjoyed prosperity and development for say about two decades. While the civil war took its toll on the region as a number of industries were destroyed in the course of the war, by the late 70’s, a number of these industries as well as new ones had been reestablished and flourished. Sadly by the time the Babaginda administration came into power and introduced the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) which created room for a second tier foreign exchange market which resulted to the massive devaluation of the naira, the abolition of import licenses, changes to import duties intended to reduce the protection of domestic industries and the import dependence of manufacturing and the abolition of export duties all contributed to a sharp decline in the their profitability compared to imports fell significantly.

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Further more, subsequent government policies have failed to rectify these challenges:the nation’s continuous dependence on imports, a motley of unfavorable policies, multiple taxation, lack of quality infrastructure and corruption have also decimated the region’s industrial base or capacity.

Insecurity also tops as one of these challenges faced in the region’s attempt at industrialization. The fact remains that no sane human being will site an industry where there are security challenges. The SouthEast has since the return to democracy in 1999 descended into a cycle of violent agitation and crime: Kidnapping, armed robbery , assassinations and other vices have become more prominent while our security agencies even with their best efforts continue to look ordinary in the face of such criminal activities.

It is thus imperative that the five state governments in Anambra in conjunction with the Federal Government must deal adequately with the security conundrum facing the region. While it must be emphasized that the governments should go hard on crime and these criminal elements, I would suggest that they also seek to arrest the few factors that make crime and its participation lucrative before our teeming youths.

This article should serve as a clarion call to the five governors of the SouthEast Region as well as our stakeholders to come together to draw up a SouthEast Roadmap for the resuscitation of these industries as well as the addition of new ones in the region. The governors must take a closer look at a number of policies such as multiple taxation, lack of qualitative infrastructure and insecurity, these factors amidst a few others have somewhat created stumbling blocks for the growth of such industries, stunted their growth options and made their sustainability a bit more tenuous. It is not rocket science!

With access to proper financing , some sort of tax rebates, the provision of quality infrastructure, power inclusive, there is no doubting that these industries will continue to function at par with their contemporaries in other climes, contributing immensely to the Gross Domestic Product(GDP) of the zone.

The time to act is now otherwise the present level of insecurity and youth restiveness presently faced will be a child’s play compared to what lies in the offing should these industries collapse totally.

November 18, 2023
How guber candidate in off-season election fell out with governor

The off-season governorship elections in Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa states have come and gone, leaving pieces of drama in their wake. Among the memorable ones is the manner one of the aspirants in the November 11 elections and a sitting governor in one of the affected states turned from friends to foes.

Unknown to many, the aspirant who was a formidable opponent and threat to the governor’s favoured candidate during the election, was best of friends with the governor in the period preceding Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s emergence as candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the presidential poll held on February 25.

The governorship candidate and another friend of his, a prominent governor from the North, were said to have secured juicy business deals each as rewards for services they rendered to their party during a crisis period.

But rather than execute the deals, the governorship candidate, then a loyal associate, chose to sell them off for billions of naira. He instantly turned into a moneybag, feared and worshipped by those who knew him in Abuja as a struggling “I’m on my own businessman.”

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In the build-up to the last presidential election, the defeated governorship candidate was said to have approached the governor of the state where he contested election and demanded billions of naira with which he would mobilise some individuals to work for the success of their party’s presidential candidate. He said he would mobilise such individuals with ‘tear rubber cars.’

That, however, became the sore point as the sitting governor, who was aware of the huge money the governorship candidate had already made from the sale of his business deal, turned down his request, fearing that he (governorship candidate) would become too rich and too powerful for anyone to control if his request was granted. “He would be richer than my state,” the governor was quoted as saying about the candidate, who had not disclosed his intention but known to be scheming against officialdom.

So, rather than give the candidate the money he requested, the governor decided to give it directly to the people listed for the mobilisation project. The move did not go down well with the governorship candidate who dismissed the governor as not trustworthy, and that marked their parting of ways.

November 18, 2023
Maku loses in bid to save ally’s head

Ever heard of a man whose cap was blown away while trying to save another person’s head? Well, that was the scenario at the Court of Appeal sitting in Abuja, the nation’s capital on Wednesday.

The occasion was the hearing of the appeal by Nasarawa State Governor, Abdullahi Sule, against the judgment of the Governorship Election Tribunal which declared the candidate of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), David Ombugadu, winner of the election held on March 18.

In solidarity with their candidate at the election, chieftains of PDP in Nasarawa stormed the Appeal Court in Abuja in their numbers to give Ombugadu the much-needed moral support. Numbered among them was a former Minister of Information, Labaran Maku.

With judgment reserved in the case, PDP members who accompanied Ombugadu to court departed in high spirits, believing that the Appeal Court would uphold the verdict of the lower court.

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That, however, was not the case with Maku who in the cause of solidarising with his party man had his phone stolen within the chambers of the Appeal Court. All efforts by Maku and his aides to recover the phone came to naught, forcing the ex-minister to return home without the prized asset.

The incident has left many observers wondering how the phone of an eminent person would be stolen in the hallowed chamber of the Appeal Court without a trace. Does it mean there was no CCTV camera in the courtroom?

The more radical observers are even calling on Maku to order the arrest of court workers as prime suspects in the matter, believing that his phone would be released if they are properly grilled. After all, they argue, it is the step Maku would take if the theft had occurred in a supermarket or some other places.

November 18, 2023
World Cup: A birthright for Nigeria

Going to play at the senior World Cup anywhere in the world should be a birthright for Nigeria, given the exploits of her players in Europe, the Americas, and the Diaspora. Our players in the foreign legion need to replicate their mastery of the game which they display at their various clubs, while playing for their fatherland. Super Eagles have been consistently awful in their outings relying on the artistry displays of a few players such as Victor Osimhen. Preparing the Super Eagles for the World Cup is the most expensive project with as it takes a minimum of N540 million per game. No hyperbole. You better believe it.

Every invitation for any qualifier attracts as many as 29 foreign-based players flying on business class while some privileged few with long legs fly on first-class tickets. This crowd of 29 players reside in some of the best five-star hotels in the world, beginning with the African continent. At other times, the Nigerian Football Federation (NFF) secures a charter jet, which takes a contingent of 200 people including supporters Club members. This crowd flies into such countries with high altitudes the evening before the game and departs immediately after the game, irrespective of the results.

Of course, the charter jets spend the night at the airport with all its huge logistics, landing rights paid for in foreign currencies. I don’t know how much it costs to keep an aircraft in the hangar in foreign land. All attempts are made by the NFF to treat our players as the big boys that they are. The pre-match show of class for players melts away like ice cream when the matches begin with our players behaving on the pitch as if they are doing us a favour.

On a few occasions, one can understand why our players are mindful of their commitment towards our matches because of the terrible conditions of the pitches compared to what they have in Europe which propels the players in their different clubs to always give their best. Many people have sworn not to watch the Super Eagles on live television after the breathtaking 3-2 away win against Sierra Leone played in Monrovia. The Eagles led by 2-0 only to falter a bit. The Sierra Leoneans seized the loop to level the scores at 2-2. It took a last-ditch effort by Kelechi Iheanacho to score the winning goal at the death.

Some other times, the Eagles struggle with the atmospheric conditions of some of these African countries necessitating the medically-informed plans by the NFF to fly the team to such places by charter flights a day before such games. Sadly, the plans to curtain the altitudinal problems are thrown into the trash bin by the same players who stroll into the camp as if they were in town to attend a disco session.

Rather than hit the camp on Monday for the Sunday match, our big boys don’t report until Thursday, leaving the coaches with between two to three days to prepare the boys instead of the six days agreed with them after the last game. Guess what, these players who sauntered into the Nigerian’s camp at their leisure scamper to return to the European clubs, knowing the implications of late coming.

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Why the Eagles manager has failed to bench latecomers remains a mystery. The excuse that the European clubs pay their wages is neither here nor there. After all, they are not playing for Nigeria for free. The players each gets paid between $5,000 and $ 10,000. They all share in the qualification bonus paid by FIFA which is quite handsome. Multiply $5,000 by 29 players not forgetting the manager, who gets twice what the players earn in games won and drawn, you will appreciate why the players must play the country’s World Cup qualification matches as if their lives depend on the ticket. It is double the figure spent at $5,000 if the players are paid $10,000 each. Who gets paid $5,000 or $10,000 for a job done in 90 minutes in Nigeria?

We have seen how Sadio Mane and Mohammed Salah have flown in charter jets to their countries to honour their invitations to camp. If our players can report early to camp and apply themselves to the six days of training, Nigeria has players who can deliver World Cup tickets with, at least, two matches left.

It is instructive to state here that apart from those players who changed their nationalities to Nigeria, the rest cut their teeth playing for Nigeria, beginning from the country’s age-grade teams. Need I waste space naming those in these categories?

Fortunately, the players and officials have the matches of the Africa Cup of Nations to be staged by Cote d’Ivoire in January to also prepare for the senior World Cup. Happily, the NFF President Ibrahim Musa Gusau while receiving the Ambassador of Cote d’Ivoire to Nigeria, His Excellency Kalilou Traore, in his Dankaro House office in Abuja said: “I have been receiving regular briefings on the preparations from the President of Cote d’Ivoire Football Federation, Yacine Idriss Diallo, who is a personal friend. I am aware that the Government of Cote d’Ivoire has really invested in stadia and general infrastructure to make the AFCON a success and a huge spectacle.

“Our two teams (Super Eagles and Elephants) are in the same group at the finals, and it would be a very interesting game when we play on 18th January. We know the whole of Africa and even the world will be focused on Cote d’Ivoire before, during, and after the AFCON, and our team will be ready to do its best. When Cote d’Ivoire played host to the AFCON in 1984, our Eagles finished second. This time round, we will work very hard to emerge champions.”

Gusua’s comments find expression with most soccer-crazy Nigerians who support our national teams during competitions and international friendly games. And the least that players, coaches, and officials can do for the over 200 million Nigerians is to win their matches by scoring goals with aplomb. Gusau reiterated that three-time champions Nigeria are ready to give the campaign their best shot when the 34th edition of the Africa Cup of Nations begins in Cote d’Ivoire on 13th January 2024.

Nigeria’s green-white-green flag wasn’t among the comity of nations that participated in the Qatar 2022 World Cup. We can’t afford to miss the next edition.

No country runs its sports on the yearly fiscal budget because of its clumsiness. Sports competitions are run on a calendar system which gives participating countries to prepare adequately for periods of one to four years. Besides, there are other tournaments that serve as qualifiers for the main events across the globe which makes it imperative that funding must be handy, not dependent on any form of bureaucracy

The countries that excel in sporting events have systems that guarantee enough funds for the sportsmen and sportswomen to compete with the best such as tax rebates on sport-friendly firms, lotteries, and businesses owned by wealthy nationals who know what is in such a sponsorship that benefits them by the sitting government. Such financial taxes are spelled out to companies and wealthy citizens after agreements have been reached. These cast-in-stone policies are binding on all the parties to such an extent that breaches are adequately addressed to allow either of the parties to seek redress in court.

The beauty of this organised method of funding is it gives all the concerned sponsors enough time to schedule their commitments to their boards to provide for them in the yearly budgets for the duration of the contractual agreements with reliant government parastatals for the exercise. Is Nigeria ready to prosecute a seamless World Cup qualification series with a solvent NFF? You tell me, dear reader.

November 11, 2023
Between 1979 and 2023 polls

Nearly four and a half decades between Nigeria’s critical presidential election of 1979 and the no less momentous presidential polls of this year, many analysts have rightly noted the striking similarities between both exercises. The 1979 presidential election was contested by five political parties namely the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP), Great Nigeria Peoples Party (GNPP) and the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP). The presidential candidates of these parties were Alhaji Shehu Shagari of the NPN, Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the UPN, Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe of the NPP, Alhaji Waziri Ibrahim of the GNPP and Mallam Aminu Kano of the PRP although the election was widely perceived at the time and turned out to be a closely fought three-cornered contest among Shagari, Awolowo and Azikiwe as Aminu Kano and Waziri Ibrahim were essentially fringe players with their support bases in Kano and Kaduna as well as Borno and Gongola respectively.

Interestingly, the three main contenders also represented the tripod of the three major ethnic groups namely the Hausa-Fulani, Yoruba and Igbo. All presidential elections between 1979 and that of this year had essentially been two-party contests even when there were more than two candidates on the ballot making the share of votes scored by candidates far higher than that possible in a three-horse race. Thus, in the 1983 presidential election, which was really a showdown between Shagari and Awolowo even though Azikiwe was on the ballot, Shagari scored 12,081,471 (47.57%) of votes to Awolowo’s 7, 907, 209 (31.09%) of the votes. The June 12, 1993, presidential election was a two-cornered affair between Chief MKO Abiola of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) from the South who polled 58.36% of the vote to win the election and Alhaji Bashir Tofa of the National Republican Convention (NRC) from the North who recorded 41.64% of the vote.

In the same vein, the 1999 presidential election was a showdown between General Olusegun Obasanjo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) who won 62.78% of the vote and Chief Olu Falae of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) who scored 37.22%. In 2003, another essentially two-cornered affair between Obasanjo and General Muhammadu Buhari of the ANPP, the former polled 61.94% of the votes to Buhari’s 32.19%. This was also the pattern in the 2007, 2011 and 2015 presidential elections which were basically contests among two major candidates respectively even when there were other fringe candidates in the race.

In essentially two-party contests, candidates have the chance of scoring a higher number of votes than in contests with three or more major candidates who split the total number of votes cast into more fractions. Thus, in 2015, Buhari’s margin of victory over Jonathan was 2,591,759 votes as he scored 53.96% of the total votes while in 2019, the Daura General’s margin of victory over Atiku Abubakar was 3,928,869 as he polled 55.60% of the votes. A number of analysts have sought to despise, discredit and delegitimize the 2023 presidential poll outcome partly because the winner, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, scored what they consider a paltry 8,794,726 representing 36.1% of the votes while his two main contenders, Atiku of the PDP and Peter Obi of the LP, jointly scored approximately 13 million votes.

But it is the single candidate with the highest number of votes and the requisite constitutionally required spread that can emerge winner. The constitution makes no room for a tag-team in presidential elections. In any case, as I had earlier stated, each candidate will necessarily score a lesser number of votes in a three or more- cornered contest in which the key contenders are from the major ethnic groups from which they enjoy considerable support as was the case in the 2023 presidential election.

Let’s return to the 1979 presidential poll to illustrate this point. In that election, President Shehu Shagari scored 5,688,857 (33.77%) of the vote, Awolowo recorded 4,916,531 (29.6%) of the vote and Azikiwe had 1,732,113 (16.75%) of the vote. Shagari’s 33.77% of the vote in no way detracted from the legitimacy of his victory in 1979 just as Tinubu’s 36.62% of the vote in this year’s election rests on solid ground and does not erode from either the legality or legitimacy of his triumph. Another point of similarity between the 1979 election and that of this year is that the Yoruba of the South-West voted as massively and one-sidedly for Awolowo’s UPN back then as the Igbo of the South-East did for their son, Peter Obi, in this year’s election.

Indeed, it is remarkable that with victories in only five states, Lagos (82.30%), Ogun (92.61%), Ondo (94.50%), Oyo (85.78%) and Bendel (53.20%), Awolowo recorded 4.916 million votes coming a close second to Shagari who only won by a margin of 772,306 votes even though his party, the NPN, won 12 states and performed impressively in a 13th, Kano State. Perhaps a major difference, however, is that the Yoruba near-unanimous vote for Awolowo was predicated largely on his superlative, unsurpassed, performance as Premier of the Western Region in the First Republic.

Prior to his emergence as Premier and Leader of Government Business in the West, which enabled Awolowo to showcase his administrative acumen as well as developmental passion and genius that endeared him to the masses of the region, Zik’s NCNC had been the darling of the West with the party winning elections in key urban Centres of the region including Lagos, Oyo, Ibadan, Ife, Ilesha among others. But beyond sheer primordial tribal identification, it is difficult to decipher the basis of Peter Obi’s new cult following in the Igbo land. His performance during his 8-year tenure as governor of Anambra State was anything but stellar. Obi is distinguished neither by a commitment to principled politics nor by a capacity for rigorous and profound thought.

But this is not new. In 1979, Dr. Azikiwe scored 82.88% of the vote in Anambra and 84.69% in Imo, possibly because of his status and role as perhaps the greatest Igbo man of the 20th century and his contribution simultaneously and rather paradoxically both to Nigeria’s nationalist struggle for independence and the evolution of Igbo collective consciousness and ethnic self-esteem. On the developmental front, however, the great Zik was not a spectacular success as Premier of the Eastern Region at least not in the mold of the mercurial and intrepid Dr Michael Okpara, who remains, perhaps, the South-East’s most impactful transformational leader till date.

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Just like most Igbo today, particularly members of the intelligentsia, believe fervently that Obi won the February 25 presidential election, a substantial percentage of the Yoruba were convinced that Awolowo won the 1979 presidential election. Their conviction unfortunately rests on shaky ground even though I was also of the same view at the time. The great educationist, social critic and newspaper columnist, Dr Tai Solarin, wrote a long-running series of articles on the 1979 election titled ‘The Stolen Presidency’ in the Nigerian Tribune. Indeed, no presidency was stolen in 1979 just as in 2023.

But many of the intellectuals in the West were more circumspect and realistic as regards the dynamics of Nigerian politics at the time. As an ardent Awo supporter, I watched aghast and dismayed as a group of five Yoruba academics from the Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ibadan, who participated on an NTA Ibadan discussion programme shortly before the 1979 presidential election all predicted victory for Alhaji Shehu Shagari of the NPN.

Of course, their reasons were obvious. With Azikiwe’s presence in the race, it was unlikely that Awolowo would do well in the South-East even though his running mate, Phillip Umeadi, was from the region and his low rating in the East was compounded by Awo’s role in contributing to the victory of the federal side in the civil war. Furthermore, with the loss of some of his staunch stalwarts in the Middle Belt such as Joseph Tarka, Awolowo’s influence in the region was diminished and he had dim prospects of doing well in the far northern states. There was simply no pathway to victory for him just as any thought or talk of a Peter Obi victory in the 2023 presidential election is utterly self-deluding.

An emphatic victory in his Igbo South-East, a slim victory in Lagos in the South-West, Victories in Edo, Delta and Cross River in the South-South as well as victories in Christian dominated Plateau and Nasarawa in the North-Central as well as the FCT, Abuja, was an impressive performance by Peter Obi but grossly insufficient to achieve victory for him in a presidential election in a vast, complex polity like Nigeria comprising 36 states.

Yet, Obi continues to proclaim from the rooftops that he won the election although his lawyers could not present credible evidentiary proof of this before the courts. Even if the courts were to annul President Tinubu’s election as prayed by Atiku and Obi, could they have overlooked the Waziri Adamawa who came second in the polls to declare Obi winner even when the LP candidate did not raise any legal objections to the votes recorded by Atiku? It is brazen illogic.

When Awolowo challenged Shagari’s victory right up to the Supreme Court in 1979, the UPN presidential candidate did not claim to have won or sought to be declared winner. Rather, his contention was that Shagari did not meet the constitutional requirement to be declared winner in the election. Awolowo argued that although Shagari scored the highest number of votes, he did not meet the requirement of scoring 25% of the votes in at least two-thirds of the 19 states which he claimed was 13 since it was impossible to fractionalize a state as demanded by Shagari’s counsel, Chief Richard Akinjide.

The wily SAN had contended that Shagari won 25% of the votes in 12 states and also 25% in two-thirds of a 13th state, Kano even though he did not secure 25% overall in the state. Unsurprisingly, both the appeal tribunal and the Supreme Court upheld the respondent’s submission that Shagari was duly elected having won not just the highest number of votes but also scored 25% in 12 two-thirds of 19 states.

Most of Awolowo’s supporters were livid and contemptuous of the judgement but the great sage himself, unlike Peter Obi, was restrained and refrained from commenting on the judicial verdict till nearly a year later when he addressed the National Conference of his party. There he mainly questioned the suspicious mode of appointment of the then Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN), Justice Atanda Fatai Williams, by the Obasanjo regime allegedly in consultation with Shagari even when it was obvious that the legal challenge against the latter’s election would most likely get to the apex court.

But could the judiciary have realistically reached a different conclusion as regards the 1979 election petition? It is unlikely. They could not have annulled the election of a candidate that clearly won in 12 states and performed strongly in a 13th and ordered a run-off between Awolowo and Shagari that could at least theoretically have resulted in victory for the former who won only five states and secured a little over 21% in Gongola State. Such a judgement could have consumed the country. Neither Atiku nor Obi met the constitutional requirement of support spread and did not score the highest number of votes in the election and yet they each sought to be declared the victors.

Peter Obi in particular laments that the Supreme Court judgement did not reflect public opinion. This is naive, betrays ignorance and is intellectually lazy. Such a position assumes that public opinion is a monolithic, uniform and unitary phenomenon. Unfortunately, in liberal democratic politics, public opinion is always complex, complicated, plural and not easily measurable. To which voice of public opinion, for instance, should the jurists have listened to and abided? That of the Obidients, Articulated, Batified or those who belonged to none of these partisan groups? It is a nonsensical proposition. The judges at both levels of adjudication decided to stand by the law and the facts. That was the right and reasonable thing to do.

November 11, 2023
Bayelsa, Kogi, and Imo elections: All eyes on INEC

Democracy gives the power the people. The people in this instance is not the political elite even though they are part of the people. The political process is supposed to be in the hands of the people. The political party structure is the vehicle that takes the candidates to the people. The essence of a political party is often based on ideological convictions in advanced democracies. That seems to be a model that most developing countries like Nigeria are yet to totally adopt.

Democratic journeys of nations are determined by the people and their readiness to follow the democratic processes and tenets. The success, not perfection as no human process is perfect of democracy is dependent on the decision of a people through their institutions to have a functional democracy where really, the power is in the hands of the people in the streets.

The 1993 general presidential election has often been referred to as the freest and fairest election in Nigeria’s history. A late MKO Abiola made history on different fronts. He won votes across the country defeating his main opponent, late Bashir Tofa in his home state of Kano. He ran with a Vice President Babagana Kingibe, a fellow Muslim from Bornu state proving that really the people are not as ethnically and religiously polarized as politicians want to paint. His victory was definite in ways that left the people jubilant until the then military government headed by Gen. Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida (Rtd.) curiously annulled the election.

The option A4 system of voting was used in what the then National Electoral Commission (NEC) Chairman, Prof. Humphrey Nwosu said was devoid of the ‘Wuruwuru and Magaomago’ system that thwarted the will of the people in the past. True to his words, the election was substantially free and fair and has become the watershed of democratic elections in Nigeria. No election in Nigeria has that record.

The chaos that the country was thrown into after the annulment was a disaster foretold because the people saw the injustice. The election is now in the annals of history but it seems the nation did not learn much from that experience. The late Gen. Sani Abacha who took over from a late Ernest Shonekan the Interim National Government head did not live long enough to conduct an election. The Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar transition election ushered in the former President Olusegun Obasanjo 1999 government.

The return of civilian government since 1999 has presented the country with very chaotic party primary and general elections. Pre and post elections litigations have been some of the global highest. Sadly, the number of court-decided elections have increased over the years and the question many analysts are asking remains, “are the people, INEC or the courts now the ones that decide elections?

The Roundtable Conversation has followed the Nigerian democracy since 1999 and feels that political actors must introspect especially given the litany of the post-election litigations. While no human system can be described as perfect, post-election litigations somewhat pushes verdicts of electoral contests to the judiciary and history has shown that while legal windows exist in democracies, the burden seems too much for Nigerian judiciary and judicial processes take too long and distract from governance. In essence, the people who are supposed to be beneficiaries of the judicial system are somewhat shortchanged if political parties and candidates waste time in the courts.

The interests of the people are never in view as time is being wasted. In certain instances, losers in elections illegally sit in offices for months or even years before the court adjudicates and disqualifies them within which time they might have made policy decisions, laws or spent state funds illegally. The preoccupation of any ‘elected’ individual in any office is self-preservation, maintaining the status quo so service to the people suffers tremendously.

Nigerians must begin to address the fundamentals, the structure of our political parties, the electoral laws, the administrative styles, the memberships, the ideological leanings and what that portends for development. How is it that political parties often have no ideological leanings that are identifiable? What is the meeting point of members of political parties? Why is the Nigerian political parties so fluid that members oscillate effortless between political parties? Political parties in advanced democracies are all rooted in certain ideological convictions. This helps members to act within certain barricades that are ideologically constraining.

If these fundamentals are taken care of in the political space, there might start to be a certain level of order and discipline in political party administration and by extension the electoral processes. Nigerian political parties must learn that democracy is a government of the people, by the people and for the people in real terms and not just mere definitive narrative. Democracy is about the people and not about parties or individuals. The party structure must be one that empowers the people not a personal property of either the leadership or any other groups or interests.

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The Bayelsa, Kogi and Imo state elections would be held today and the onus is on Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to do the right things in ways that they would restore confidence in the people after the recent general elections. The security agencies must show that their jobs are not for mere optics. The political parties must play by the rules and members must realize that the states in question are their birth homes and that no matter what the outcomes are, they would all continue to be indigenes whose priority must be the development of their states.

2023 elections have seen too many post-election litigations and some candidates losing elections they thought they had won. Some winners have had to be in courts distracted from doing the duties for which they were elected by the people in the first place. In all these, little attention is paid to the passing time in a process that is tenured. The countdown for performance starts on the day of any inauguration but election petitions tribunal, appeal court and supreme court cases often eat into a four-year tenure and in such cases t is the people that are losers.

The three off-cycle elections have generated much attention and curiosity. Many have been watching the body language of the political parties and their members. While political contests are no love affairs, Nigerian election have over the years been synonymous with battles as there have been reports of killings and chaotic voting areas caused by political thugs often armed by some politicians.

The security agencies must not just be heard issuing threats because that seems not to have worked as deterrent in the past. They must be seen to walk the talk by making sure voters behave themselves during the elections and that political actors do not break the laws. The maintenance of law and order is key to better electoral outcomes. The voice of the people must be allowed to be heard because democracy is about the people.

INEC as an umpire has a duty to regain the confidence of the people through the way they would go about this off-cycle election. INEC in the minds or the Nigerian people is suffering some trust deficit owing to the outcome of the recent electionsmany of which have been subject of litigations. INEC must show professionalism and patriotism to avoid outcomes that would be litigated against.

INEC must as a matter of national interest make sure that these off-cycle elections are conducted without the flaws reported by various election observers from home and abroad and avoid the post-election litigations some of which indicted the organization and had the judiciary determining many of the cases. This is not how the Nigerian democracy can grow. Elections must be seen to represent the choice of the people in free and fair elections.

The reality of the Nigerian situation where the judiciary gets burdened with election petitions means that many other cases suffer because there are too few judges to handle all the cases. What this means is that while politicians seemingly get expedited justice, the citizens have their justice delayed and sometimes totally denied due to the exigencies of time. Democracy is about the people on an equitable manner. Justice in any form must never be obstructed by any means.

The political actors in Bayelsa, Kogi and Imo must also realize that they too have more to gain if the elections are conducted in a free and fair manner. The states belong to every indigenes and it is theirs to build. Elections are not supposed to be wars. Citizens of these states whether at home or outside the state value the progress of their ancestral homes and politicians are mere caretakers that their legacies would continue to speak for them.

There is always life after elections and so the political actors and their supporters must not heat up the system in ways that would cause any chaos. Luckily, the governors of Imo state, Senator Hope Uzodimma and his Bayelsa counterpart, Senator Douye Diri are both seeking re-elections so their first term report cards should do the magic.

Kogi state’s Yahaya Bello who in the usual Nigerian governor’s style anointed who he trusts to be his successor must rely on his own nearly eight-year performance to make the people trust his choice. Really, the world is waiting for a free and fair contest that would not necessitate post- election litigations. All eyes on INEC and may the best candidates win.

●The dialogue continues…

November 11, 2023