The Nation Newspaper

Category: Saturday

  • Imo: For Ihedioha, it’s raining troubles

    Imo: For Ihedioha, it’s raining troubles

    THESE are obviously very difficult days for former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon Emeka Ihedioha. Ihedioha, who was declared winner of the governorship election in 2019 but eventually sacked by the Supreme Court to pave way for the emergence of incumbent governor, Hope Uzodinma, appears to be swimming in crises this currently. First, the embattled Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) chieftain came under attack from supporters of Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, for allegedly referring to ‘Obidients’ as saboteurs while urging support for PDP’s Atiku Abubakar.

    It took days of explaining that he was misquoted alongside a well publicized apology for him to be left off the hook by his ‘assailants’ who had vowed to ‘finish him politically for daring to drag Obi and his supporters. Hardly had the uproar created by the ‘saboteur’ misfire died down before Ihedioha came under attack again for allegedly writing to Abubakar Malami, the Attorney-General of the Federation (AGF), and urging him not to release Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB). Of course, the former governor denied the allegation.

    On October 16, a letter in the former governor’s name which was addressed to the AGF, surfaced on social media. In the letter, Ihedioha allegedly urged the AGF not to release Kanu to ensure stability and peace in the south-east. Before then, a recording was in circulation wherein a voice that was claimed to be Ihedioha’s, said there won’t be peace in the state since he isn’t in government. The developments created a serious uproar with many people calling for the head of the former Reps boss and describing him as an enemy of the Southeast.

    In a statement, the former governor said he had no link to the letter or audio in circulation. “It appears that some people are not satisfied with their stolen mandate. They want to drag me out by an orchestrated campaign of lies,” he lamented. And just when he was about heaving a sigh of relief, Imo state government during the week asked the federal government and the National Assembly to probe why and how Ihedioha was declared winner of the guber elections in 2019.

    The state Commissioner for Information and Strategy, Hon Declan Emelumba said there was an urgent need for Nigerians to know who flagrantly abused the constitution and appropriate sanction meted to them. He said going by the Constitutional requirements, Ihedioha did not get one quarter of votes cast in 18 LGs which is two thirds of the 27 local government areas of the state. According to him, INEC only declared him winner in 10 LGS, 7 short of the required 18 LGs, yet he was declared winner of the election.

    As it is, the government is insisting that those who raped the Constitution including the beneficiaries ought to be brought to book. And this Sentry fears, will bring more trouble Ihedioha’s way. “It is not enough that Ihedioha was removed from office. He and his collaborators need to be punished. The Government of Imo State believes that a thorough probe by the federal government into why Ihedioha was declared governor when he didn’t win the election will help sanitize the electoral process,” Emelumba revealed.

  • Lagos 2023: The Jandor challenge

    Lagos 2023: The Jandor challenge

    JIDE Adediran, journalist, media consultant and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship candidate in Lagos State, is throwing a challenge at the All Progressives Congress (APC) family in the Centre of Excellence.

    How far can he go?

    His fans said it may be dangerous to underrate an opponent, even if he is an upstart, because anybody can spring a surprise. But poll-confident Lagos APC is unperturbed. Its leaders consider the onslaught as the ranting of an ant; the flimsy bravado of an inexperienced bidder and a product of jaundiced self-assessment.

    The PDP flag bearer has said he does not believe in the presidential ambition of APC National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, at a time Lagosians, people of the Southwest and the generality of Nigerians are gravitating towards his direction and are full of eagerness about 2023. It is in exercise of his human right and freedom of association guaranteed by the constitution.

    Also, the young man said he wanted to displace Governor Babaijde Sanwo-Olu in next year’s poll. It is evident that the governor is not sleeping on guard, irrespective of opponents eyeing the number one seat.

    Apart from the PDP flag bearer, no fewer than 10 opposition candidates are also making feeble attempts.

    Adediran’s campaign posters can be sighted on the streets. Like those of other candidates, they adorn and litter the walls of public places. He has also been holding rallies, along with his running mate, Actress Funke Akindele (Jenifa), who entered politics few months ago. Exuding confidence, the PDP candidate has boasted that power will shift in Lagos next year.

    Adediran, fondly called Jandor by admirers, defected from the ruling APC, following his unsuccessful bid for the governorship ticket. Before his departure from the fold, many stalwarts had perceived him as a rebellious, impatient and deviant member who subjected the chapter to an orgy of personal rebuke.

    He knew that his confrontational approach could lead to his exit from the camp, due to irreconcilable differences.

    Although Adediran was a consultant to the Babatunde Fashola administration between 2007 and 2015, he was not known as a party man. Later, his philanthropic activities caught the attention of some people. He rode to the political theatre on the back of his empowerment programmes.

    As he assembled a structure, he attempted to position himself as an internal opposition leader. He criticised the party’s tradition and formula for leadership recruitment and choice of candidates for election. But, Lagos APC is a big party, always ready to withstand an offensive or aggression in and out of the platform.

    Full of initiative, Adediran understands the power of money. Having made fortunes through his engagement with the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) administration, he delved into business, riding on the supportive platform guaranteed by his closeness to the corridor of power. Seven years after, his professional colleagues marvelled at the successes that attended his capacity for risk-taking. Boasting about these feats, he described himself as a successful man, proud owner of Core TV, and an employer of labour.

    He also said he was ready for a titanic fight that would be a wide departure from the half-hearted attempt by the opposition party in the past.

    Adediran was ushered into the stage by his philosophy of “Lagos for Lagos” with its inherent divisive tendency in a state that has prided itself as a heterogeneous community; a mini-Nigeria harbouring compatriots from across the federation. Non-indigenes were put off by what they described as potential tension between indigenes and settlers, and its implications for peaceful coexistence. The slogan was later moderated. But, the intention, having filled public consciousness, refused to fizzle out. And the suspicion grew.

    Adediran has never posed as a scholar. Neither has he pretended to be an ideologue. His public service experience is nil. He has never served in any layer of government, never contested before, and not associated with officialdom beyond media consultancy.

    Yet, to Lagos PDP chieftains, Adediran became a big catch. It has always been the lot of Lagos PDP to borrow an aggrieved chieftain from the ruling party for adoption as its candidate. Many PDP chieftains have links with the APC because many of them had the dormant Alliance for Democracy (AD) and the defunct AC and ACN as mutual roots.

    The periodic struggles for governorship ticket have often been fierce, warranting strategic defections by impatient politicians seeking the Golden Fleece outside their political family.

    Also, as some observers have noted, those who left the Bola Tinubu political family knew how to return later to savour greater relevance in the camp. It is being said that if the PDP candidate fails at the poll, the likelihood exists that he too would return to the fold like those before him-Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, Otunba Olufemi Pedro and Senator Tokunbo Afikuyomi.

    A section of the ruling party thinks that with proper grooming, and in an atmosphere of party supremacy and discipline, the likes of Jandor and many other party youths can be part of the future assets of the party and the state, if they are patient, if they calculate well and demonstrate foresight.

    Adediran got the governorship ticket with minimal stress, probably due to the shortage of governorship materials in the weak chapter,  the influence of powerful party leaders from outside the state and the personal structure he had projected.

    After getting the ticket, party leaders turned the heat on him for picking an outsider as running mate. The controversy still lingers.

    However, on Thursday, cracks also appeared on the wall of the Jandor movement. Thousands of supporters retraced their steps to APC. Those who came back said more would follow their action.

    Will Lagos voting pattern change next year? Does the PDP permutation in Lagos have any basis in the political history of the metropolis?

    Lagos is the greatest stronghold of the progressive bloc. By 2023, the bloc would have dominated power in the Centre of Excellence for 24 years, in the current dispensation alone. As the APC seeks the renewal of its mandate, the achievements of former Governors Tinubu, his successors – Fashola, Akinwunmi Ambode and Sanwo-Olu – would be the party’s armour.

    Keen observers say Asiwaju Tinubu has laid a solid foundation for his successors to build upon. They have presided over model administrations that have protected public interest. While the PDP, the Labour Party (LP) and other smaller parties would be soliciting for votes based on mere promises to Lagosians, the APC, now positioned as a tested and trusted party, will request for a fresh mandate by tendering the scorecards of the four governors and making new promises it can fulfill in post-election period.

    In particular, Sanwo-Olu is in a vantage position to tender his scorecard to voters. He has broken new grounds. His achievements include turning Lagos into a huge construction site, investment in education, health, transportation, environment, housing and security. His THEMES captures all the sectors.

    Since Lagos State was created in 1967, Lagosians have participated in nine governorship elections: 1979, 1983, 1991, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019. In those polls, except that of 1991, Lagosians voted along similar and predictable lines. The 1991 exception was due to the inability of the progressives in the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) to put their house in order. As the struggle for the ticket between the late Prof. Femi Agbalajobi and Chief Dapo Sarunmi polarised the party, reconciliation proved abortive. The SDP leader, Alhaji Lateef Jakande, directed his camp to vote for the National Republican Convention (NRC) candidate, the late Sir Michael Otedola. The SDP candidate, Mr. Yomi Edu, a lawyer, was defeated.

    Many issues will shape next year’s contest. The first is the incumbency factor. The size and strength of the parties and their perception by the people will also influence the direction the election will take. The APC controls the House of Assembly, which has 40 members, and 57 local councils. The three senators and 20 members of the House of Representatives belong to the ruling party.

    Also, if federal might would be a factor, it will be to the advantage of APC.

    The autochthonous factor will not be a serious issue in the megacity. Religion and zoning are also weak bases. When some Christian leaders agitated for a Christian governor, they acknowledged that the two Muslim governors -Tinubu and Fashola – whose wives are Christians, never marginalised any religious sect in governance. In the Southwest, religion is largely a non-issue.

    In the PDP, the choice of a running mate has generated controversy. There is religious balance. But, PDP elders are not comfortable with the choice of the actress.

    Will PDP and Labour Party (LP) collaborate during the governorship poll in Lagos? Only a thin line separates the two parties.

    Ethnic balance is not compromised. But, things are changing. In 1979, the leader of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, advised the Lagos chapter to make Alhaji Rafiu Jafojo running mate to the flag bearer, Jakande. There was no evidence to show that the UPN won the election on the basis of that sub-ethnic balancing. Jakande represented core Lagos; Jafojo, whose grandfather hailed from Ile-Ife,  represented the Awori.

    In the Third Republic, Mrs. Sinatu Ojikutu was Otedola’s running mate. He was from Epe and she was from Lagos Island.

    In 1999, Asiwaju Tinubu and Senator Kofowola Akerele-Bucknor paired. Tinubu is from both Lagos Central. He has been contesting and voting in Lagos West. Bucknor is from Lagos Central.

    Fashola is from Surulere in Lagos Central. His first deputy, Princes Sarah Sosan, is from the coastal area of Lagos West District. Mrs. Victoria Adejoke Orelope-Adefulire is from Alimoso in Lagos West.

    Generally, the tradition is to look for a running mate, who the flag bearer can harmoniously work with for four years.

    Lagosians will not be involved in political gambling next year. Voting will be dictated by a wider appreciation of the issues to be addressed and the capacity of the candidates.

    Governance is not a tea party in Lagos. The residents are among the most enlightened people who can make informed decisions based on the realities on the ground and not often pushed by emotions towards regrettable situasions. This is among the reasons the Lagos polity has been stable for a long time. The residents are not known to throw the baby away with the birth water, even in extraneous circumstances.

    During the campaigns, or debates, flag bearers will share with the electorate their blueprints. This is where knowledge and experience will count.

    A mega city, an economic capital, and the former Federal Capital Territory, Lagos remains the mini-Nigeria. As a cosmopolitan city and West Africa’s commercial nerve centre, there is the mass exodus of youths in search of real and elusive opportunities. The electorate will want to hear from the candidates their strategies for handling these complexities.

    Lagos is a Yoruba city, but indigenes of other states have become part of its political establishment. Their hosts are the people of the five divisions of Epe, Badagry, Ikorodu, Ikeja and Lagos. Nigerians from the hinterland have also increased the voting quality and strength of the state. These factors of accommodation and tolerance are great marks of Lagos.

    The state is also a special a blend of diverse, complex and sophisticated dwellers who account for the prosperity of the city and the menace and vices that characterise its daily life.

    Again, people will want to hear from the candidates their strategies for the management of diversity.

    Lagos is host to the headquarters of thriving business empires. Over 60 per cent of the Value Added Tax (VAT) in the country is generated from the state alone. Despite the relocation of the federal capital to Abuja, many foreign diplomats still prefer to operate from Lagos. Thus, on the shoulders of Lagos governor rests the security of over 28 million residents, although he does not control the police. These residents include an army of restless, jobless youths, unemployed graduates and the masses.

    What is the blueprint of candidates for the sustenance of security?

    The governor will continue to shoulder the burden of population explosion as thousands continue to flood the city on daily basis. The huge population and influx of people daily will increase the demand for the few public sector employment, water, schools, roads, and other social infrastructure.

    Housing is a major problem in the state. Although the government is trying its best, but the housing gap is still wide. These days, illegal immigrants from poor West African countries have joined the native beggars who take refuge under the bridges. Commercial motorcyclists, popularly called Okada riders, who are from Niger, Mali and Togo, have also come to protest against traffic law at the state secretariat in Alausa. Together with the city urchins, called area boys, the destitute pose a threat to security.

    The battle for special status continues. Although Lagos shoulders enormous national responsibilities, the agitation for economic assistance has largely been ignored by the Federal Government. Many Federal, state and local government roads will continue to call for attention.

    Who among the candidates can tackle these challenges better? Obviously, no novice can make the cosmopolitan city to remain in its enviable position. Only experienced technocrats can successfully pilot Lagos towards its deserved greater future.

    The informed electorate in the state understands this and would not gamble with its franchise in 2023.

  • Completed, valid and invalid registration: All eyes on INEC

    Completed, valid and invalid registration: All eyes on INEC

    THE 2023 elections in Nigeria is a huge job by any standards, the eyes of the world are on Nigeria, the giant in the Sun.  The country is the most populous, the most influential black nation on earth. Has it had problems, yes, is there room for progress, absolutely.  Nigerian elections since 1999 have attracted attention of global institutions and community for very obvious reasons, the country has the human capital, it has the resources but somehow the democratic processes have had challenges.

    Luckily, in line with the global changes in technology, things seem to be looking up. Slowly but gradually, the country seems to be tottering towards a better process with the will of the people. In the past, Nigeria seems to have had the most litigious post-election cases in the world because somehow, the constitution has not been amended sufficiently to make it illegal for a candidate to occupy an office before all election petitions are judicially concluded or before inauguration.

    This seeming flaw in the constitution has been very disruptive of governance and in a way emboldened a few politicians to occupy offices they have not been legally elected to.  There have been instances where persons not validly elected were sworn in but because there is no law in place, they benefited from occupying offices illegally. In some queer social parlance, the politicians often boastfully say, “just win by all means and let your opponent go to court”.

    The above statement is made with the view while the litigation goes on, the assumed winner would have occupied the office and enjoyed the pecks and fame that come with such.  There have been post-election cases that lasted up to three years in a four-year tenure and I the process, there has been loss of focus, wasted tax payers money, inertia in governance and the worst of all, the denial of democracy dividends to the people.  There is a plethora of such cases in the country’s political history and the people have been the grass that suffer when two elephants fight. The country’s democracy can be more viable with better electoral systems in all its ramifications. The government, institutions and the people must be ready to bring the necessary changes that can strengthen the country’s democracy.

    The Nigerian people have high hopes that the coming elections would be a departure from the past if technology is allowed to function. There are expectations that votes will count and be counted. The deployments of technology backed by the amended electoral laws of 2022 have raised the hopes of the people for a credible, free and fair election. However, technology or not, humans are an integral part of the electoral process.

    The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is in the eye of the storm as the umpire. There is a huge amount of hope on the institution given what recently happened in Kenya, a small country in comparative terms. The Independent  Electoral and Boundaries  (IEBC) so creditably conducted the elections that even when an opposition candidate, Raila Odinga went to the Supreme Court with his petition, the court disagreed and affirmed the election of William Ruto who was up against the then incumbent, Uhuru Kenyatta and his new ally, Raila Odinga.

    Nigeria’s INEC has equally done well in some off-season elections in some states like, Anambra, Edo, Ekiti and Osun. These were seemingly test cases with the use of the Bimodal Voter accreditation System (BVAS). The hope is that the next election which is to be on a larger scale would prove as credible as those already conducted. All eyes are on INEC but it takes more than the umpire to guarantee a credible election in a country with more than ninety million registered voters.

    The recent announcement by the Chairman of INEC, Prof. Mahmoud Yakubu at the third quarterly meeting with Civil Society Organizations for 2022 in Abuja that their in the process of  cleaning the Voter Register using the Automated Biometric  identification System (ABIS), a total of 2,780,750 of the 12,298,844 new registrants during the Continuous  Voter Registration  (CVR) exercise were identified as ineligible registrants and invalidated from the records has been met with mixed feelings.

    The Roundtable Conversation finds this announcement from the INEC chairman very encouraging and would help in increasing the trust ratio of both Nigerians and the world on the Commission.  It is also encouraging to hear that with the use of technology in staff auditing and deployment for the CVR, the alleged staff that tried to perpetrate the registration fraud would be sanctioned accordingly. We  hold our breaths.

    The Roundtable Conversation had always maintained that rigging of elections does not really happen only on election days. The processes leading to the elections must be seen to be free and credible too.  The act of perpetrating some dubiety during the CVR is as criminal as any such act aimed at corrupting the system at any point. It is noteworthy to recall that in most cases of flawed elections, all eyes have always remained on politicians and possibly on election days. This revelations  by Pro. Mahmoud is very telling and necessary to be deeply interrogated.

    The Roundtable Conversation sought the views of Clement Nwankwo, a lawyer and human rights activist and the executive director of Policy and Legal Advocacy Center  (PLAC). He was also a co-convener of the Civil Society Situation Room, an organization that has been playing key roles in ensuring the credibility of the Nigerian electoral processes. Nwankwo believes that INEC has done well in identifying the errant staff that compromised their offices but there should be a ‘manifest and obvious evidence of prosecution of those involved and expurgation of the padded register.

    To him, taking further actions in these regards would further rekindle the trust that serious actions have been taken and deter others.

    Mr. Nwankwo believes that the alleged criminal act under reference was not just by the INEC staff. There must have been a web of co-conspirators. So to him, all those found culpable beyond the INEC staff ought to be arraigned as well. It is not sufficient to say you have caught your erring staff, in criminal law,it is known  that such acts are carried out in conspiracy with others. Who are the co-conspirators? The people deserve to know. The chain of conspirators must be deliberately broken. That is one way to institutionalize transparency in the process. The iNEC staff could not have acted alone, who are those behind the curtains?

    The Roundtable also had a conversation with the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ) president, Christopher Isiguzo on the same issue. To him the INEC chairman has come out clean and promised that the full weight of the law would be brought to bear on the alleged offenders but action is needed also. To him, the media as a great stakeholder in any democracy is standing for the truth and the transparency of the process. He believes that once the erring staff are evidently made to go through the right prosecution channels, it would mean that the electoral commission is not all bark and no bite.

    To the NUJ president, making sure justice is served the erring staff would not only serve as deterrent to others but would help in raising the confidence of the people and the world on the electoral commission. People would believe more that INEC as presently constituted is committed to delivering a credible, free and fair election in 2023. He believes that no institution is peopled by perfect people but the laws are there for a reason because the INEC staff are not saints or in some divine way immune from falling for inducements by unscrupulous persons in the society.

    In every system, there are individuals who might want to undermine the system and its values and mores. However, in his view, it is gratifying that this discovery came very early in the day and not when the damage had been done. INEC still has weeks and months within which they can tighten the grip on people who might want to undermine the process.

    He believes that for the success of any electoral process in viable democracies, certain institutions must like Ceasar’s wife be above reproach and as such, the media, civil society organizations, the security agencies and INEC have the duty to deliver by displaying high level of neutrality and commitment to credible electoral outcomes. These institutions and organizations must be at high alert, before, during and after the elections.

    The media in his view is preparing practitioners in all fields to be well informed and ready to deliver on their own requirements through series of trainings and retraining of practitioners and making sure that the ethics of the profession and professionalism is key to their roles as watchdogs of the society. The new media is being accommodated in what can be described as the rule books because they too are here to stay. The media is increasing the level of awareness, sensitization and training for all so people will come to terms with things that are unique to the profession.

    The Roundtable Conversation believes that democracy is the business of everyone. Politicians are taken from the people. All institutions are peopled by citizens and a functional democracy is the business of everyone including the alleged erring staff of INEC who have betrayed the trust of their Commission. We hope to see an open and transparent prosecution and not a perfunctory mention in a conference. Every institution, the government and the people must work hard to ensure the process produces the credible results.

    The dialogue continues…

  • Atiku’s strategy

    Atiku’s strategy

    (Does the ‘average northerner’ need a kind of President different from that of the Igbo, Yoruba, Ijaw or from any part of Southern Nigeria? That was the fallacy that presidential flag bearer of the PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, tried to sell when at

    a forum of the Arewa Joint Committee in Kaduna, last weekend, he brazenly implored his audience to vote for him

    as a Northerner saying the North does not need a Yoruba or Igbo President. Luckily, Atiku’s divisive statement has been widely condemned across the country not excluding the North. The emergent new Nigeria has obviously left Atiku behind stranded in a narrow time warp. In his comments when the APC presidential flag bearer, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, presented his agenda to the Arewa Joint Committee, Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir el’Rufai, gave an insight into how Tinubu emerged as the APC presidential candidate, stressing that the APC northern governors were firm and steadfast on power rotating back to the South after eight years of President Muhammadu Buhari because “it is not in the character of the North to breach agreements. In his address to the forum, Tinubu had declared, “As for the North, I believe you have no better friend in the race like me. I am not like those who only remember they are from here when it is time to ask for your votes…My political history is full of examples of long and abiding support for the North; from the late Shehu Yar’Adua to Atiku Abubakar; Nuhu Ribadu and President Muhammadu Buhari among several other allies from here. To its credit, the North has also paid back in good measure. I am the flag bearer of our party today partly because of the decision of the Northern APC Governors who rose to the occasion by standing up for our country and unity of our people, as against primordial considerations. By so doing, they have demonstrated that indeed the North is a region that keeps its words and always promotes Justice. Permit me to reiterate that I have the competence, knowledge and experience to provide good leadership to this country and run it very well. I am not an Island. However, I have demonstrated capacity to attract and work with the best hands to build enduring legacies. While humbly soliciting your support, I assure you I will be with you shoulder to shoulder on this journey”. Contrary to Atiku’s reactionary thinking, Nigeria today does not need a northern or southern President but a competent and knowledgeable Chief Executive with demonstrated track record of running a productive, result-oriented and inclusive administration capable of uniting Nigerians across sectional, primordial divides. Well before Atiku openly showed his ethnic hand in Kaduna, this column had analyzed his divisive strategy in a piece published here on Saturday, October 1, 2022, and which I reproduce below today)

    He is a battle tested politician who is not unfamiliar with the complex intrigues and manoeuvrings of party and electoral competition. It is thus surprising that the campaign of the presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, continues to be dogged by some of the poor decision making that plagued his earlier failed attempts to be elected to the country’s apex political office of President. As a veteran in the game, one would have expected Atiku to pursue what is evidently his last bid for the coveted office with a lot more tact and wisdom. He projects himself as a ‘unifier-in-chief’ with the capacity, if elected, of forging greater cohesion in a country admittedly badly fragmented along primordial lines. Yet, Atiku has given the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) the opportunity to brand him as a ‘divider-in-chief’ given the virtual civil war that rages in his party since his emergence as its presidential flag bearer raising questions as regards his ability to unite the country if he cannot offer cohesive leadership to his party.

    Atiku’s emergence as the PDP’s presidential candidate was in violation of the party’s constitutional provision for rotation of presidential power between the northern and southern parts of the country although the presidential primary was ostensibly free, fair and transparent. Incidentally, his choice as Vice-Presidential candidate, Delta State governor, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa, was an active participant in meetings of the Southern Governors Forum (SGF) at which it was resolved that the presidency shift back to the South after eight years in power of President Muhammadu Buhari from the North. Of course, the power rotation principle is neither a creation of the SGF nor is it simply an intra-party provision of the PDP constitution. It is an unwritten elite compact among dominant factions of the political class cutting across party lines since 1999 having its roots in the unjust annulment of the June 1993, presidential election won by the late Chief MKO Abiola on the platform of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP).

    Prior to Abiola’s electoral victory in 1993, widely acknowledged as the freest and fairest polls in the country’s history, apex executive power had been domiciled in the north between the beginning of the second republic in 1979 under one civilian administration and two military regimes and the historic election.  It was inevitable that the annulment of the election of a Yoruba President-elect by a northern-led military regime further strained inter- ethnic relations with regard to power sharing in the country. The protracted struggle against military dictatorship spurred by the annulment led to the consequent retreat of the military from the political space and the democratic restoration of 1999. In compensation for the injustice of the annulment, the presidency was conceded to the South- West by hegemonic factions of the political class resulting in General Olusegun Obasanjo and Chief Olu Falae of the PDP and Alliance for Democracy (AD) respectively being the only contestants for the office in 1999 with Obasanjo winning an emphatic victory with the support of the dominant political elite of the North, South-South and South-East.

    Read Also: Atiku: Playing the ethnic card

    After eight years of the Obasanjo presidency between 1999 and 2007, presidential power rotated back to the North with the election of the late President Umaru Yar’Adua. The latter’s untimely death in 2010 led to the constitutional ascension to office of his Deputy, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan from the South, who completed his late boss’s tenure and successfully ran for his own full term and won in the 2011 election. It is instructive that, despite being from a minority ethnic group, Jonathan achieved victory in 2011 with the support of the dominant political elite of parts of the North, the South-East, South-South and even the South-West following the collapse of the working relationship between Buhari’s defunct Congress of Progressive Change (CPC) and Asiwaju Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and the latter supporting Jonathan.

    Dr. Jonathan’s decision to contest for a second term in 2015 split the PDP down the middle with prominent northern leaders of the party including Atiku insisting that it was the turn of the North to produce the President. That crack was a key contributory factor to the victory of the then nascent APC in 2015 with the opposition party displacing an incumbent government at the centre for the first time in the country’s history. It is thus astonishing that after eight years of Buhari’s tenure, Atiku, another Fulani, sees nothing wrong in his seeking to wield presidential power for possibly another eight years until 2031! The argument that the last PDP President, Dr. Jonathan, was from the South and that this justifies an Atiku presidency is self-serving and unconvincing. The rotational presidency principle transcends party demarcations and applies to the nation as a whole. Given the current fragile state of Nigeria’s cohesion, a part of the country cannot monopolize presidential power for sixteen years without negative implications for national harmony. There must first and foremost be a stable, united and peaceful country before there can be a functional and effective political party.

    Atiku’s strategists contend that his choice as the PDP presidential candidate is only a matter of pragmatic electoral strategizing as of all the contenders within the party, he has the best stature and structure to win a nationwide election. Yet, they criticize and deride the APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket disregarding the party’ argument that the pairing provides the most tactical and strategic choice to guarantee its victory in the presidential election. Speaking at a stakeholders meeting of his party in Enugu last week, Atiku described himself as a “stepping stone” for the South-East to produce a president. He gave no rational explanation why this is so. According to him, “I’ve had a close relationship with the Igbo and this influenced my choices of Senator Ben Obi and Mr. Peter Obi as my running mates in my two previous outings as a presidential candidate…I have three children with Igbo blood flowing in them. I am saying this for the very first time in public. So, my relationship with Ndigbo did not start today”.

    True, the Igbo have put all their political eggs in the PDP basket since 1999. The South-East has been the most solid and consistent electoral support base of the PDP in this dispensation. The region deserves the PDP’s presidential ticket. If he is indeed the unifier and patriot that he projects, why couldn’t Atiku support an Igbo presidential candidate and back such a person with his perceived influence and structure? Perhaps in that case, a Peter Obi would have remained in the party. As it is now, the strong possibility of Obi’s Labour Party (LP) understandably eating deeply into the PDP’s support base in the South-East is one of the reasons why The Economist Intelligence Unit has projected victory for the APC in the presidential election.

    Taking a dig at the APC during the Enugu meeting, Atiku stated that the second Niger Bridge about being completed by the Buhari administration is not a favour to the South-East but to Nigeria as the country as a whole will benefit from the facility. But if Atiku loves the South-East so much, why did the administration in which he served for eight years as Vice President do absolutely nothing to actualize the second Niger Bridge and other infrastructure projects in the region being implemented by the APC government?

    Given his presumed political experience, it is surprising that Atiku is handling in a most cavalier manner the continued disaffection and dissension of the governor Nyesom Wike tendency in the party over the jettisoning of the zoning principle, his choice of running mate and the non-resignation of Dr. Iyorchia Ayu as National Chairman following the emergence of a northerner as presidential candidate. Atiku insists that Ayu’s continuation as party Chairman will no longer be tenable only if he wins the election and becomes President since both key positions cannot be occupied by persons from the same region. This not only negates the ordinarily principled Ayu’s promise to quit the position if a northerner became the presidential candidate before his election as Chairman, it creates the impression that Atiku is himself lacking in confidence as regards the probability of his winning the election. A National Chairman of southern extraction to succeed Ayu and achieve the regional balance being demanded can easily be actualized and necessary personnel changes effected to meet intra-party constitutional stipulations if Atiku possesses the political acumen and astuteness he is often credited with.

    In any case, this is a completely avoidable crisis and a recurring pattern in Atiku’s leadership style. In 2007, he picked Senator Ben Obi as his running mate on the platform of the Action Congress (AC) without consultations with critical stakeholders of the party resulting in grievances that negatively affected the party’s performance in the election. PDP governors in the South-East were largely indifferent to Atiku’s campaign in 2019 because they were reportedly not carried along in the choice of Peter Obi as is running mate. And this time around, he could surely have handled his choice of Okowa as his running mate much better bending over backwards to carry along the diverse tendencies in the party particularly the not insubstantial Wike sympathizers.

    But then, Atiku is not daft. He deliberately and consciously went all out to get the PDP presidential ticket despite the party’s zoning principle benefitting from Governor Aminu Tambuwal’s cynical skewed regional antics in the process. His support for the three critical offices/roles of National Chairman, Presidential Candidate and Director General of the Presidential Campaign to be allotted to northerners is deliberate. Asked during his last Arise TV interview how he would be affected by the choice of the APC Vice presidential candidate, Mr. Kashim Shettima, from the North-East, Atiku responded that Shettima is a minority Kanuri with presence in two states while he is Fulani with support base in more states. Atiku’s strategy is to sell himself as the candidate of the North in general and the Hausa-Fulani in particular in the hope that the South will be divided between the APC and LP. It is a divisive strategy but unlikely to fly.

    It was the Northern governors in the APC who insisted that the party’s presidential ticket be zoned to the South in the interest of fair play and justice. Their support was pivotal to the emergence of Tinubu as the party’s presidential flag bearer. President Buhari could have used the power and influence of his office to steer the APC presidential primaries towards a different outcome. He did not and is the Chairman of the party’s Presidential Campaign Council. Whatever anybody may say, Buhari remains a political cult figure among teeming millions in the north.

    Tinubu himself has cultivated and maintained enduring close relationships with prominent stakeholders in northern politics over the last three decades. It is not for nothing that he is the Jagaban of Borgu. The APC northern governors have far more to gain working for the APC to retain power after Buhari than for the victory of an Atiku who cannot be relied upon to keep promises or abide by pledges. The Waziri Adamawa’s divisive northern strategy is from all indications Dead on Arrival (DOA).

  • Nigerian league going, going…

    Nigerian league going, going…

    Those who like to jump at pyrrhic victories associated with the domestic game have gone into hiding. They have covered the faces which have been smeared with rotten eggs in shame. Serves them right. The price for hypocrisy. When our flag bearers to the continental clubs’ competition conquered those minor nations (forgive me for the arrogance and disrespect), the media was awash with different forms of paralysed analysis about the effects of the undertakers’ contributions to the game’s growth. So, when the CFA inter-club last round pitched Nigerian teams against their North African counterparts, this writer shouted eureka – a Daniel has come to judgment, seemingly.

    Kwara United FC of Ilorin, Plateau United of Jos and indeed, Rivers United of Port Harcourt by the fixtures of the last round had more than slippery poles to climb except they wanted to deceive themselves. The odds were blatantly against the three teams, especially as the domestic league games in Nigeria had not begun. It isn’t rocket science. We, therefore, need to jumpstart the Nigeria league by the second week of November with at least a title sponsor and a broadcast rights sponsor where our matches can be shown live on television. Enough of the rhetoric.

    The clear statement from the defeats inflicted on o Rivers United, Kwara United and Plateau is that ours is second best to other leagues in Africa. Hurting/ Yes. Rivers United and Plateau’s demotion to the second tier of CAF’s inter-clubs represents how badly run the domestic league is here. Unfortunately, 13 club owners met with the new NFF President and the owners made many damning confessions which could have attracted sanctions, had the new sheriff known the implication of what the turncoat club owners agreed that they did.

    In the communiqué released by the federation’s Media  Director Ademola Olajire which hasn’t been refuted, the club owners admitted on Monday that:’”(2) The Club Owners collectively maintained that the NPFL has suffered severe problems in the past six years and identified the following areas: (a) Lack of Sponsorship, (b) No TV Broadcast, (c) Poor Officiating, (d) Insufficient Funding, (d) Lack of Match Integrity, (e) Poor remuneration of match officials and huge indebtedness in this area, (f) Matches won on the basis of Highest Bidder, (g) Poor Infrastructure, (h) Incompetent Administrators and (i) No prize money for winners and failure to honour same, et cetera.

    In saner climes, last year’s league competition would have been cancelled and those who organised it would be made to face the wrath of the laws as provided for by FIFA’s and CAF’s ethics committees. The admittance by the club owners under subsection (f) that ” matches were won on the basis of highest bidder” is tantamount to match-fixing.  So, there is a confirmation that matches were bought and sold? By who? Who does that?

    Aside from it being a grievous crime, it also is a criminal offence which FIFA and CAF frown at. Those who ran the competition should also be made to face the laws of the land for bringing the game to disrepute. Taking the communiqué point by point, Sani Ahmed Toro, who was the pioneer secretary of the professional league in its infancy in 1990 remarked that the outcome of the meeting was a “serious indictment on the part of previous NFF, LMC, the clubs, the club owners and the Nigeria Referees Association (NRA).”

    Do we really care about the reputation of the country in the eyes of the world? Guess what, the club owners had the temerity to make suggestions as to how the league should be run.  Why didn’t they say so in the last dispensation? Who are they to set the rules of the game if we truly know what we are doing? The new NFF board should swallow their pride and inaugurate the IMC last next week Wednesday. They also need to sit with the honourable Sports Minister Sunday Dare to discuss the possibility of getting seed money of between N50 million and n100 million, which must be refundable to avoid pilfering.

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    I pity my friend Barrister Christopher Green. He must have tried to remedy a very bad situation. Mention must be made of the Rivers State governor Barrister Nyesom Wike for raising the stakes by promising each player $40,000 if they had crossed the Wydad FC of Morocco hurdle. Your Excellency sir, thank you. Let’s do it again next year before you hand over the government.

    Interestingly, Rivers United and Plateau United have dropped into the CAF Confederation Cup with Rivers United hosting the first leg tie against El Nasr Benghazi of Libya on November 2 inside the Adokie Amiesimaka Stadium, Port Harcourt. The return leg holds on  November 9, at a yet-to-be-named venue.

    Dear reader, did I hear you say another North African nation? If I know Barrister Green very well, he would ensure that the mistakes of the CAF Champions League are not repeated starting with the issue of teaching the players what to do to avoid being provoked into getting a red card as it happened in the 6-0 loss to Wydad Casablanca FC Morocco last Sunday. It is a playoff setting. Rivers United, according to reports were undone by their temperamental goalkeeper. He is definitely out of the two-legged tie, with the lessons of his being red carded starring the faces of his colleagues to avert a recurrence.

    Yes, the Libyans are North African but would find in Rivers United a very tough nut to crack. My advice to Green is to challenge the players to whip  El Nasr Benghazi of Libya by at least five goals on November 2 in Garden City. The focus on during the return leg in Benghazi should be to score an early goal which would count for two when the goals aggregates are being analysed in the event of a tie in both legs’ results. This writer won’t be surprised if Rivers United qualifies from this fixture, having learned their lesson from the Wydad debacle.

    The overwhelming reaction to Plateau’s exit was hinged on poor officiating with a downloaded video recording of the game showing clearly how unfairly the Plateau boys from Jos were cheated. A second bite at the cherry will come with vital details of how to grab the ticket though they won’t play against the Libyans at the Tin City, unlike Rivers United.

    Plateau United confronts Al Akhdar FC of Libya in the first leg game on November 2 inside the MKO Abiola Stadium, Abuja with the second leg’s venue yet to be disclosed. The game would be played on November 9. It is expected that Nigeria’s senior men’s soccer side Super Eagles Head Coach Jose Peseiro would be with the Plateau side over the two matches, having also accompanied them to the ill-fated second leg tie in which the Nigerians were allegedly cheated by the match referee with video recordings being streamed in the social media.

    OF significant importance is the fact that Nigeria’s football is being put into question with yet another North African nation. Can Rivers United and Plateau United win the battle of supremacy by beating the Libyan sides home and away to make the game beautiful here? Or would both countries win one fixture each? Or would the Libyan sides beat their Nigerian counterparts to confirm the fact that what the Moroccans was an attestation to the fact that North African football has grown geometrically while Nigeria’s is on the slide to the abyss?

    Or would Plateau United and Rivers United remedy the situation by qualifying ahead of the Libyan counterparts? One thing is clear, one of the aforementioned options would play out itself. Whichever option plays out, may the best two clubs qualify for the good of the game in Africa?

    One would have thought that the holocaust years when the North Africans were a nightmare to Nigerian clubs were gone or is it creeping back?

  • Remembering Alex Ekwueme

    Remembering Alex Ekwueme

    Were he alive, Friday the 21st of October would have seen Dr. Alex Ekwueme mark his 90th birthday. As one of Nigeria’s foremost statesmen, Dr. Ekwueme’s birthday would have made national headlines, Full page adverts would have been taken by politicians as well as by family and friends, while the statesman would have featured heavily in news reports and interviews, sharing his golden thoughts on the state of the nation .

    Ekwueme, however passed on in 2017 at the ripe age of 86 as an accomplished scholar, author, businessman, thinker and politician with his imprints flying like flags at full mast. Ekwueme distinguished himself in all spheres that he sought participation in, that it is still a mystery that he never got the opportunity to lead the nation as its president, twice seeking his party’s ticket and twice losing it, owing to a classical conspiracy amongst the ex military class to entrust power with one of their own.

    A one time Vice President of the Federal Republic, Ekwueme was the intellectual linchpin of the Alhaji Shehu Shagari administration and despite its dismal first term performance as well the heavy allegations of graft and mismanagement of the nation’s economy it is indeed remarkable that Ekwueme who was sent to kirikiri on charges of corruption was exonerated by the same judicial tribunal set up by the Buhari administration and headed by Justice Sampson Uwaifo, which admitted that to have done otherwise in Ekwueme’s case, based on the facts available   “would be setting a standard of morality too high even for saints.”

    As a technocrat, Ekwueme is credited with the creation of the Ministry of Science and Technology  while he served as Vice President as well as the design of the Federal Capital Territory. The nation’s geopolitical structure as present is also credited to his thinking,

    I recall reading some of his ideas as a university student in 2003  which had a roadmap for the restructuring of the Nigerian federation. Had the leadership at that point in time heeded his calls then perhaps the incendiary situation presently witnessed within parts of the federation may have been totally avoided, sadly those who scoffed at Ekwueme’s ideas and even empowered thugs and enfant terribles to spite him are now all over the place masquerading as champions of the same restructuring.

    Read Also: Alex Ekwueme (1932 – 2017)

    How can we forget his brilliance at the 1995 Constitutional Conference which produced what many now refer to as the ‘Ekwueme Constitution’ which had a constellation of brilliant ideas such as the concept of single term as well as rotational presidency, establishment of a judicial commission and the increase of the derivation principle from 3 to 13 percent.

    When General Sani Abacha was running Nigeria like his personal fiefdom, employing the use of violence, detention and murder as his tools  for suppressing the opposition to his plans for self succession  as well as the demands for the restoration of Chief Abiola’s mandate Ekwueme was one of the few voices that had summed up the guts to demand that Abacha  leaves office as a military man.

    Ekwueme was also a thoroughbred democrat, as his style of politics embodied such ethos, as a team player he was always ready to sacrifice for the greater good of others. I had mentioned how he lost the 1999 PDP ticket to Obasanjo,a party he had helped form and was sure to nick the ticket until the very last minute of the convention. Ekwueme could have cried foul, gone to court to annul the process or at least declare himself winner of the exercise but he chose to accept the results and remain with the party rather than leave it. Even after the 2003 primaries which saw the use of pre marked ballot papers and forced a number of party faithfuls to vote in a particular manner, Ekwueme remained faithful to the party, refusing to ditch it even in the face of the numerous provocations shown to him by President Olusegun Obasanjo, which were mostly to undermine the former’s status as a statesman.

    A detribalized Nigerian, Ekwueme championed ideals that stood him out from much of the political class of his era. Placing one’s capacity over tribe or religion.

    Lastly, Ekwueme was a polymath in every right and had the trappings of what Plato described as that of a Philosopher King, asides from being a renowned architect, he also obtained degrees in urban planning, philosophy, history, sociology and law. Ekwueme was also one of the first awardees of the renown Fulbright Scholarship.

    Almost five years since his departure from this earthly station of ours and on the event of his 90th as well as 4th posthumous birthday Nigerians all over the world have continued to miss this sterling statesman who left indelible marks on the nation’s political firmament as a professional, intellectual and bridge builder who’s passion for this nation and the uplifting of its resilient people towards the greatness that we deserve will remain unparalleled for years to come.

  • Leaders, experience and stability

    Leaders, experience and stability

    The  abrupt resignation    in the UK  of  Liz Truss  who was the last PM appointed by the Queen who died recently , caught many people by surprise . More  interesting   however was the cheerful  way she announced her resignation . Her  mood was not that of leader who has lost  power and her gait after the announcement did not betray any regret as she walked away  gingerly from the podium . To  me , at   first  ,  that  was a  sign that  in Britain the  political  culture is that power is not a do or die affair . On the other hand one can conclude from her resignation posture that she is resigned to the fact that  she could not  deliver  on her  mandate  as she admitted in   her resignation letter . One   could surmise  that     she  knew  she  was wearing shoes too big for her and she was saying with  her literally  nonchalant   or  resigned posture – good luck to bad rubbish .

    Which  in a way  is a form of pragmatism . I will call that the pragmatism of untested hands or leaders which  invariably breeds political uncertainty or instability . Indeed Liz Truss’  brief  residence at 10 Downing Street , as  PM  was a lesson in how experience matters in political leadership and how a dearth of it can  cost the polity its   stability and sense of direction . Right  now the British  political system  is in the throes of leadership  instability   and that   has prompted the French President Emanuel Macron to pray  very  loudly that Britain returns quickly to the path of political stability . Given the historical  rivalry between France and the UK  especially after Brexit   one cannot be too sure if the French president was being  sympathetic    publicly  while  praying   privately   that the British  political  leadership  should   stew in its own urine .

    Today  we do a comparative analysis of the leadership instability plight of the UK   with China which is a lesson in political  stability  whether you like communism , its ideology  or not  ; Nigeria ,  which is stable  in spite of its state of insecurity ; and Tunisia  ,  where the president is forcing the people to have a strong constitutional  president after the flurry of governments that come and go in elections which  have  created great  political  uncertainty since the Arab spring revolution of 2011 in N Africa and the Middle East .  Let  me stress at the  onset that in  China , Nigeria and Tunisia ,  the political  leaders are experienced , tested hands  unlike Liz Truss but how their experience has translated into political stability that seems to be eluding the UK is the focus of our attention and comparative political  analysis here .

    China’ President Xi Jinping  came to  power in 2012 and  is planning to be confirmed as president for life by the Chinese Communist party which  runs China in such  a way that the party is present in all aspects of Chinese society . According to an analyst ‘XI Jinping sits on top of the party , the party sits on top of China and China sits  on top of the world That’s  basically the program .’That China sits on top of the world is not correct for the simple fact that the US will not allow it because of its brand of democracy which  does  not see China’ s ideology of communism as democratic . Yet  China has had flawless elections while election integrity is taking a bashing in the US where Donald Trump  is claiming that the 2020  election won by Joe Biden was rigged . That is the stuff  of  political  instability and the US is  reeling like a punch drunk  boxer from that even as it goes to  a do or die mid terms election in November in which power is expected to change hands . China  does not also sit on top of the world because the US will  not allow it to annex Taiwan  as it wants and is  China   is fast learning a lot from the  botched Russian invasion of Ukraine . And Russia is China’s  most visible and reliable ally  in today’s diplomacy and international  relations .Indeed China’s  political  stability  is the  envy of the west even though  like proverbial ostrich that has its buried in the sand  , the west thinks its  brand of liberal democracy  that is proud of its recognition of  gay rights   and same sex    marriage , which both Russia and China detest  , is the real  global democracy . A very  real fallacy  indeed  especially in terms of   its    potential   to    threaten  political stability .

    Read Also: Tinubu to interact with North’s leaders Monday

    As  regards Nigeria  ,  the current president   President Muhammadu Buhari  has been in power for almost two terms of four  year’s each with his party  the APC and the nation   has started campaigns to elect a new president in 2023 . Nigeria has been a stable political system and the president is a well tested politician   who has ruled militarily before being elected democratically  as president . In  fact his reputation for discipline  and integrity made the electorate to  bring him  back  as president in 2015 .Yet  there is grave insecurity in the land especially  in the North where he comes from . One expected his reputation as a successful  military  commander to deter terrorists , kidnappers and armed Fulani herdsmen  ravaging the nation especially with the Boko Haram menace in the North East which  unfortunately  is surviving the Buhari tenure of office . It  is now left  to his successor  and the  eventual  victor in the 2023  presidential election  to solve the nagging problem of insecurity in the middle of political  stability .Obviously in the Buhari  era political  stability co existed  with insecurity and one  can safely  say they  are  mutually  exclusive in our peculiar political  system .

    In  Tunisia  the President  Kais Saied  has dismissed   the government  of  Hichem  Mechichi , and     suspended the legislature .He  organized a constitutional  referendum in July  this year and parliamentary elections are due in December this year . What  the  Tunisian president  is aiming for is a strong government that  can deal with protesters with the force  of  the rule of law but he is finding stiff resistance  from  the opposition even though he seems  to be having his way . In a way he is a tested hand  but democracy needs consensus     and tolerance and he seems   to have lost both and Tunisia  is very well speedily on the high way to political instability  , even though an experienced  leader  is in control  for now .

    Again  with Nigeria  it is apparent that old and tested  hands are  on parade  as  presidential  candidates for the 2023 presidential  elections . The  PDP presidential candidate Abubakar Atiku was a former Vice President of the Republic but   he  has run into trouble by saying to a political caucus in the North that he thinks  they should  vote for him  because    he is a Northerner  a  situation that  belittles the people of Nigeria’s  south  who are more populous than the arid North which the census repeatedly says is more populous than the south . If  you remember the ‘ born  to rule ‘ saying credited to late prominent Northern leader Maitama Sule  from Kano  you will see that Atiku has a lot of explaining to do to carry  the southern votes  along in  this  coming 2023 presidential election .

    His major  opponent  from the APC the party in power since 2015  is  former   Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu  ,  the Jagaban  who is the leading candidate in the election . He too is a tested hand having been  governor of Nigeria’s commercial  capital state Lagos  state . He  has been  doing his best to sell  his Muslim Muslim  ticket  which I think  is based on merit and should be defended as such . However Atikus’ born to rule’  gaffe  should  be good campaign ammunition  for  the Jagaban  to insist he is a thoroughly detribalized Nigerian  who has built  bridges across the whole  of  Nigeria and his expected election in the 2023 presidential election  will  just be a matter of the sower reaping where  he has sown so massively and so  nationwide . That again  will  be a reward  for  experience and is a guarantee of stability that will this time deal ,  once and for all  ,  with our present intractable state of avoidable  insecurity  .   That is one  bright  prospect  worth  looking forward to ,  in this 2023 presidential election.

     

  • 2023: Economic value of gender inclusion and the informal sector

    2023: Economic value of gender inclusion and the informal sector

    The campaigns for the 2023 elections in Nigeria seem to be lacking in real depth and content. We have seen more of mere political brickbats by candidates of each other. The issues of security, infrastructure, agriculture, health, education and other sectors of the economy have not really gotten the needed focus that brings the needed clarity.

    Media handlers and Spokespersons of candidates seem to be more interested in telling the voters what they already know about a few of the presidential candidates. All of the frontline candidates of the political parties of APC, PDP and Labour have all held various political offices in the country and their lives are therefore in the public domain. Any adult of voting age knows enough about each of the candidates and their antecedents so the Roundtable Conversation finds it curious that media outings of campaign organizations of the political parties have been a focus on information that is public knowledge.

    If in 2022 campaign strategists cannot understand the value of intellectual input in campaigns, then nothing will change in the country. If they continue to adopt the dysfunctional political cliché of ‘you Dabor me I Tarka you’, then it means none of them wants to take the road less travelled. There must be a departure from the past. Times have changed and globally, politics has evolved and with it the style of campaigns.

    The Roundtable Conversation has observed that most of the campaign rhetoric has been like the proverbial blast from the past. It does seem that there are motions without movement.  The world is watching the greatest black nation on earth and expecting a campaign of hope, of core issues and the roadmap to the revival of the economy with double digit unemployment, inflation, millions of out-of-school children that has guaranteed Nigeria the unenviable position of the country with the global highest with high maternal and child mortality rates.

    Betty Wilkinson, a Senior Financial Markets Advisor in Zambia recently appeared on Arise TV Global Business Report and took her time to analyze the effects of certain economic policies that affect both Zambia and Nigeria. In her analysis of the 2023 budgetary allocations, she recognized three key issues; gender, aspects of financial inclusion and formal to informal growth gaps.

    She pointed out that Zambia has 15% of women in the Zambian Parliament and almost the same percentage as ministers. In Nigeria, less than 6% of people in parliament are women. In the last year, less than 1% of the budget is targeted towards women empowerment and other activities associated with women.

    She went ahead to observe that the result is very evident from research that women are good managers, good at saving and addressing emergencies and most companies headed by women made more profit comparatively. Women are great at sorting out family finances. Any government that does not pay attention to women especially when they are often half or more than half the population will have an economy that will not  grow or be sustainable.

    According to her, when it comes to inclusion and inclusive economy, this is one key area that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified as being helpful for the growth of economies. The civil service has to work pretty effectively and the recent review of the civil service shows that Nigeria shows that the civil servants need to have better decision making processes and more accountable financial and reporting under actual results that they are supposed to be achieving.

    The second thing she talked about was the large number of subsidies in the Nigerian budget and the Zambian budget and efforts are being  made to graduate the people out of the subsidies when it is possible and sensible to do so.

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    The third thing that is huge in all of Africa is informal businesses. In Nigeria, almost 90% of the total business activities are done informally and dominated by women and informal businesses tend to be smaller, involves people that are less educated and concentrated in rural areas and are often not connected to the tax system and they often find it difficult to get loans from banks and other financial institutions so that they can actually have working capital and grow.

    So she feels these three are truly big issues in Zambia and Nigeria and her recommendation is , “PAY ATTENTION TO WOMEN” . To her, socially it is a challenge but we must ask the vital questions, how many women are CEOs, how many women are on top of organizations?  Why are women not being moved up in the system and empowering them to do the job knowing how around the world if women are the top, most companies become more profitable and more innovative.

    She feels that it is thoroughly embarrassing to just have 1% of the budget allocated to women empowerment, second thing must be to make civil servants more accountable how so we make the budget more accountable. The third one is informal financing and businesses. There are so many processes that can be made easier and simpler.  Records must be made more functional in ways that anyone who starts a business can be given may be a year tax holiday and thereafter made to use their records to access loans with records. These three basic steps must be taken to grow the economy. Government, public and private sectors must step up and do the needful.

    The Roundtable Conversation decided to bring up this expert advice in a way for our governments and those aspiring to be in government to understand the simplest economic and social issues that grow economies all things being equal.  This is a simple way of pointing out to the candidates the seemingly simple things that really matter.

    The Roundtable Conversation has been on the trail of the political parties through the electoral processes of congresses and primary elections. The number of women with party candidates is still abysmal. Only the APC has a female governorship candidate in Adamawa. Not many women got their tickets to the legislative houses either at state or federal levels.

    It is still regrettable that the most political parties see women as just good enough as campaigners and voters for men. Again, even the few women in politics seem not very decisive in making demands from the men in real terms. The fact that the majority of men in the National Assembly rejected the five bills aimed at a seeming gender equity says a lot about the value political parties put on women in Nigeria.

    The candidates at all levels seem not to understand the socio-economic value of women in the growth of economies in global terms. Economists around the world and in global institutions keep happing on the value of inclusiveness and gender equity but Nigerian male politicians seem to be delusional about development and the role of women. If Nigeria is the poverty capital of the world and has about 6% of women in parliament and our politicians and their handlers feel that the campaigns can be about everything but the core issues that grow economies, then it is a long walk to development for the nation with the largest  population in Africa.

    If politicians in Nigeria still see political participation and women issues from the prisms of culture and religion in a twenty first century world that is ruled by ideas and technology that are not  gender sensitive, then the country is in for more tales of woe. With less than five months to the general elections, if the rhetoric on campaign  grounds still remain the old way of vague promises and repetitions of past styles, then Nigeria might not relinquish the poverty capital tag any time soon. There are issues that matter. Gender and economic  issues matter.

    The Roundtable Conversation long predicted that nothing might change if politicians still stick to the mindset of business as usual. We however place a caveat here, this piece is not intended to have campaign teams just smuggle gender inclusion into their agenda. We need thorough and well thought-out  intellectually savvy ideas that would be realistically pursued by candidates at all levels.

    Political campaigns are not about superiority contests, they are about talking to potential voters and convincing them about candidates seeking positions and their capacities rooted in the knowledge of the nuances of leadership.

    Most countries in Africa seem to have understood the value of women in economic growth more than Nigeria with a population of more than two hundred million almost half of which are women. What it means is that Nigeria has been under-developing, under-empowering and under-utilizing its female population which in any case has shown admirable capacity through the few that had the opportunities.

    The Roundtable Conversation is challenging all political parties to come up with valid and realistic policy actions that would help in solving the problems which women face. There must be an end to the cliché verbalizing of affirmative actions just to win votes. Kenya that now have seven female governors did so by amending their constitution and making it unconstitutional for any one gender to produce more than two third of any elective position. Nigerian women seem to be sabotaged politically by men who continually prevent a level playing field through political maneuverings that exclude women. The campaigns so far seem to affirm this.

     

    The dialogue continues…

  • On Gbajabiamila’s new role

    On Gbajabiamila’s new role

    The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) recently commended Speaker of the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila, for his intervention in the protracted crisis between the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) and the Federal Government.

    Few days earlier, he and the national leadership of ASUU met in Abuja over the crisis between university lecturers and the government.

    NLC President, Ayuba Wabba, gave the commendation at the inauguration of the Guest House of the National Union of Chemical, Footwear, Rubber, Leather and Non Metallic Products Employers (NUCANMPE).

    Sentry recalls that after series of meetings with delegations of both ASUU and the government, Gbajabiamila announced that the crisis would soon be over in a matter of days. And true to his words, the strike was called off.

    For many Nigerians, he is one man to thank for the deal that brought about an end to the eight months old strike. In recognition of his ‘peace maker’ role, the leadership of the National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS), South-West zone, also commended Mr. Speaker during the week.

    The leader of the zone, Com. Fiyinfoluwa Stephen Tegbe, said the situation of university education in Nigeria calls for serious intervention which was made readily available by Gbajabiamila. He also appreciated the cooperation given by ASUU leadership, led by Prof. Emmanuel Osodeke in the discharge of his peacemaking roles.

    Read Also: 2023: Gbajabiamila prepares next generation for leadership

    While many Nigerians, are still hailing the Lagos-born politician for succeeding where many others have failed, the Speaker in a move that suggests that his foray into peacemaking is not a one off, is now working hard to solve the lingering crisis that has been bedeviling the nation’s aviation sector. Sentry learnt that he already scheduled a roundtable with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor and the Minister of Finance over the crisis in the aviation sector.

    It was also gathered that he had a meeting with stakeholders in the aviation sector in Abuja. Sentry learnt that the meeting was aimed at resolving the lingering aviation crisis. “While we try to look for solutions, I will plead with the foreign airlines to show some good faith and open up your portal for business to continue as usual so that Nigerians can purchase your tickets so that travelling agents can work. While you go back to status quo, we will look for how you can repatriate your funds, if it requires a special intervention or whatever, we will find a way to deal with it,” Gbajabiamila said at the meeting.

    The stakeholders at the meeting included the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Airlines Operators of Nigeria (AON), travel agencies, and other actors in the aviation industry. Not a few Nigerians are now optimistic that with Gbajabiamila, the latest peacemaker in town now interested in the crisis, good days will soon return to the sector.

  • Atiku: Playing the ethnic card

    Atiku: Playing the ethnic card

    The intrigues of the 2023 general election are already in the air. The perceptive can smell them. The body language of some of the key actors forebodes likely storms that next year’s polls might unleash upon the polity.

    The political veterans in the race are already feeling the heat. Some of them are somewhat adjusting to the reality by regressing to old tricks to either have an edge or at least survive the 2023 challenge.

    Politicians always try to adjust to situations. This is basic and non-negotiable. They undergo stress, which is concomitant with human existence. Political life is stressful because politics is tasking: energy-sapping, money-consuming; the terrain itself is largely slippery and unpredictable. It is filled with conflicts, competitions and antagonism. Sometimes, it becomes a clash of egos.

    All political actors adjust to some conditions or circumstances, whether these are anticipated or unexpected in the field.

    Psychologically, there is the need to probe the psyche of the key actors to see how well they are adjusting to realities.

    Seventy-six-year-old Atiku Abubakar, a former vice president and presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), like other contestants, is in the eye of the storm, as it were.

    Since last week, even some elite have been taking a second look at his candidature. The Wazirin Adamawa has claimed to be a unifier of sorts. He always alludes to the bridges he has built across the country, and his network of friends and in-laws in the Southwest and the Southeast. He claims to have worked in many states across the country and appreciates Nigeria’s diversity.

    Atiku is also a fighter – in party politics and in the court. On the electoral track, he appears combative, not willing to leave anything to chance.

    Life has been kind to the former vice president. He is an accomplished public servant. He is also a successful businessman. In politics, he was catapulted to the number two position in the country by virtue of his antecedent as a loyalist of the enigmatic Major-General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, and as heir apparent to the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) stool left behind by the late Chief of Staff Supreme Headquarters.

    Atiku was mentored by Yar’Adua, whose structure was a model in the aborted Third Republic.

    The late Tafidan Katsina’s political influence cut across the six regions. Although he wanted to be president, he was not lucky as the military, his professional constituency, truncated his bid, his ambition. He was banned, unbanned and banned in the days of political experimentation by the Evil Genius, General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB).

    When Yar’Adua was approached to support the late Bashorun Moshood Kashimawo Olawale (MKO) Abiola after the first Social Democratic Party (SDP) primary that should have produced him was cancelled, he was taken aback.

    But when the SDP delegation from Yoruba-speaking states reminded him that they once supported his ambition during the first primary, reason prevailed. Immediately, he gave his word, since he never wanted todivide his structure.

    Read Also: North’s elders disown Atiku’s ‘don’t vote Yoruba, Igbo’ comment

    Yar’Adua never asked the North to only vote for a northern candidate afterwards. Like a soldier that he was, he never sought to divide Nigeria for partisan reasons.

    Atiku may have decided to brush aside the virtue that defined his benefactor, Yar’Adua, the original unifier. His supporters were shocked to the bones by his ethnocentric remarks at the Northern Joint Committee meeting, a regional platform for assessing the presidential standard bearers.

    What was the motivation for digging up mistrust and suspicion between the old North and the old South? Why showcase the North-South dichotomy? Why emphasise issues that divide instead of things that unite?

    The knowledge of diversity was not put to use by the former vice president. Playing an ethnic card, Atiku pleaded with northerners to vote for one of their own – himself – only. He said northerners do not need a Yoruba candidate or an Igbo flag bearer, except himself, who hails from the northeast state of Adamawa.

    His message was clear: the North should not vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu solely because he is a Yoruba and not a northerner, despite his vast experience, acknowledged expertise and soaring popularity, even in the North.

    Also, the meaning of his unambiguous statement is that northerners should not also vote for the candidate of ‘Obidients,’ Peter Obi, an Igbo, because he is not a northerner.

    The PDP candidate was engulfed in a crisis of identity, projecting himself as a regional candidate in a federal election where the entire country is the constitutional constituency of any presidential candidate.

    Why did Atiku, an elder statesman, bring ethnicity to the front burner of his campaign for the coveted political seat in Aso Villa? It may be due to the fact that religion can no longer be the major and exclusive determinant of voting behaviour in the North of Fourth Republic.

    It appears that religion, which was once projected as a core factor, is being weakened by ethnic consideration. The reason is that if religion was canvassed in the Muslim-dominated North, Atiku cannot edge out Asiwaju Tinubu. Both are Muslims.

    In fact, religion has now become a volatile issue that should be handled with care. Northern Christians still seem to be up in armsagainst real and imaginary discrimination.

    Yet, Atiku did not complete his statement. The remark was partial. The second leg of his deliberate statement should have been an appeal to the South to also cast their votes for that candidate from the North, that is Atiku, since it is obvious that the votes of the North alone will not be sufficient to make him president.

    Atiku’s objective is straightforward. But it is devoid of logic. No basis can be found for it in the convention of the party and political history of Nigeria.

    The Atiku outburst has also thrown up a puzzle. Should a northerner, President Muhammadu Buhari, who was voted by southerners and northerners in 2015 and 2019, be succeeded by another northerner, when he completes his two terms of eight years next year?

    Analysts have been dissecting Atiku’s position on 2023. They seem to have genuine fear about what will be the priority of his government, if he is elected.

    Atiku’s admonition may have robbed him of perceived national outlook. His regional persuasion mode is counter-productive in this electioneering. No region can singlehandedly install a president in Nigeria.

    The unguarded remark also underscores the failure of political communication. Critics of Atiku have said his remark was the manifest impact of “psychic determinism”. Indeed, “from the abundance of the heart, the mouth speaketh”.

    The general belief is that the controversial remark did not come by chance. It was not accidental. It represented a disposition, a mindset, a perspective, a belief, and an attitude. Besides, it may also have a predictive value, meaningthat the eminent politician may have uncritically visualised the prospects of a northerner being exclusively elected by the North as President of Nigeria. This perhaps amounts to day dreaming. It is nothing short of gambling. It is absolutely difficult, if not outright impossible.

    The lesson is here instructive. Candidates should think before acting or commenting. They should consider the weight of their statements and its implications for a complex pluralistic society like Nigeria.

    Candidates should also listen to their coaches. At no time should any flag bearer be carried away by a crowd that will soon disperse, or the momentary euphoria, or the activities of praise singers who like to draw the wool over their eyes.

    Candidates should reflect deeply, rehearse well before mounting the rostrum, demonstrate patriotism and show sincerity. The country they hope to lead is not one, and they should not aggravate the identity conflict and crisis of nation-building by reckless statements.

    Never has Nigeria been so divided, not only by nepotism and religion, but also by the tool of ethnicity, which has made national unity a tall order, than it is today.

    People now ask: can Atiku foster inclusion, if power lands in his hands?

    The quest for inclusion, which is a criterion for equity, justice, unity and peace, is being resisted in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). That is why the party’s presidential candidate, Atiku; its National Chairman Iyorchia Ayu and Campaign Director General Aminu Tambuwal are from the North. Is that skewed or lopsided distribution of party powers reflective of national character?

    Atiku is a national figure, a retired Customs officer, shrewd businessman and vice president for eight years. But self-actualisation appears to be elusive from him. The ultimate is the Presidency. On six occasions, he has tried his luck, but without success.

    Notwithstanding the number of times he has tried, it is within his fundamental rights to aspire for the position, if he does so without treading the desperate path.

    So, ambition should be pursued in utter sensitivity to contrasting regional feelings, and without offending the sensibility of other regions.

    This has led some observers to think, without further proof, that the septuagenarian may be considering next year’s poll as his last chance to realise his lifelong bid for presidential power.

    The divisive and destabilising remark may have also fuelled the suspicion that a legitimate ambition is being pursued with desperation.

    This is clearly what those who can read between the lines could glean from Atiku’s statement. It is now up to him to disabuse the minds of such people. Otherwise, the prominent politician might have shot himself in the leg – politically – in the frenzy of electioneering towards the 2023 polls.

     

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