The Nation Newspaper

Category: Segun Ayobolu

  • Awaiting apc’s presidential ticket

    Awaiting apc’s presidential ticket

    The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) was only being strategic and rational when it decided on Dr Goodluck Jonathan as its consensus candidate for the 2015 presidential election. For one, in our perverse political environment, an incumbent spurned by his own party could work for the opposition’s victory. Again, Jonathan has been tagged as clueless and underperforming by the opposition. If he is denied the PDP’s ticket through competitive primaries, that would only be a vindication of the critics’ low estimation of Jonathan’s performance. What moral justification will the PDP then have to seek support for another candidate on its platform?

    Furthermore, Jonathan may well be the best candidate that the PDP can offer. His administration has some achievements to its credit. There has in recent times been some improvement in electricity supply at least here in Lagos. The hitherto moribund Nigeria Railway Corporation (NRC) has been resuscitated to some degree. Despite the exaggerations of the Minister of Agriculture, Dr AkinwumiAdesina, there are important strides in the sector. But then, this exactly is the problem. If President Jonathan’s record in office is the best the PDP can offer Nigeria, the party deserves to be massively voted out of power at the centre next year.

    The country was generating approximately 4000 MW of electricity in 1999. Today, the power being generated is only slightly over 4000 MW. Yet, over $20 billion has been expended on the sector in the last 15 years. The rail system that the Jonathan administration crows so loudly of is still essentially primitive, archaic and a disgrace to a country of Nigeria’s stature and resources. Unemployment has attained stratospheric heights. Most strategic federal highways across the country are in catastrophic condition. The vast majority of Nigerians are worse off today than they were in 1999.

    That is why next year’s general elections will be the most critical electoral contest yet in the country’s political history. Despite the persistence of a large degree of political decay and rot in the country, there are impressive signs of democratic progress and consolidation. The party system has become more stable and balanced even if political actors continue to engage in acts of irresponsible vagrancy and ideological promiscuity. There has been a phenomenal growth in the political consciousness and sophistication of the people. The electoral system is systematically gaining greater autonomy from executive control and partisan influences. Recent decisive and landmark judicial decisions in Adamawa and Nassarawa states, for example, show that the judiciary as an arm of government is in reality steadily growing in stature and authority in spite of the passing, transient and ultimately futile aberration in Ekiti state.

    Against this background, everything is set for an epic battle next year for the country’s presidency with the real possibility of change being effected through the ballot box. All eyes are thus on the APC and the configuration of the presidential ticket it will present to confront President Goodluck Jonathan at the polls. One of the party’s leading aspirants, former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar has an expansive political network and a stupendously deep pocket. Yet, the goodwill he enjoys in certain influential elite circles does not translate into massive grassroots support in any part of the country. Furthermore, despite his formidable media machinery, Atiku has not been able to dispel negative perceptions of the source of his wealth.

    Another notable aspirant is the Kano state governor, Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso. By several credible accounts, he has performed well and raised Kano to a higher pedestal of excellence. He is articulate and I am impressed by the fact that he has consistently published the minutes of the weekly executive council meetings including all contracts awarded since his inception in office. But then, a key determinant of the 2015 presidential election will be the ability of the parties to maximally mobilise the electorate to turn out to vote in their respective strongholds. In that case, Dr Kwankwaso may not be the greatest electoral asset that the APC has to mobilise the highest number of votes from the north.

    In the same vein, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, another presidential aspirant, has made his mark as a dogged trade unionist, a brilliant labour economist, an articulate debater and a transformational governor of Edo state. But what would be the incentive for the average South-South voter to prefer him to Dr Jonathan who is from the zone and is already in power? In my view, Comrade Oshiomhole and the Rivers state governor, RotimiAmaechi, can at best help the APC to make a significant impact in a South-South zone that is undeniably Jonathan’s electoral stronghold.

    If capacity to galvanise massive voter turnout in his political base is a major consideration, then General MuhammaduBuhari is clearly the aspirant that can lead APC to victory. Even though he is no money bag, Buhari enjoys cult-like support among the masses of the north as demonstrated in the 2011 presidential election. What he lacked in 2011 was substantial support outside the north. The APC as a national platform helps to remedy that deficiency and makes him a formidable presidential contender.

    But more important than where Buhari comes from is who he is. His anti-corruption credentials are impeccable and incomparable. He is disciplined and ascetic and stands in sharp contrast to the monumental corruption and impunity that defines the Jonathan administration. A distinguished and tested general, he has the experience and will power to tackle the insecurity that currently paralyses the country. Another advantage of a Buhari presidency is that since he is now 74, he can be persuaded to be a one -term president like Mandela. Indeed, that should be a pre-condition for key stakeholders of the party to give him their support. Once Buhari has given his word, he can be trusted to keep it.

    If Buhari emerges as APC presidential candidate, who will be his best choice as running mate? Here the party has a rich pool of competent and electable persons to choose from. They include well known political figures like former governor of Lagos state and a key architect of the formation of APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, incumbent governors whose tenures would have ended by next year such as Mr Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN), Dr Kayode Fayemi, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, Mr Rotimi Amaechi, or even competent technocrats like former Lagos State Attorney General, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, Mr Ben Akabueze, current commissioner of Economic Planning and Budget in Lagos state or Mr Dele Alake, former Lagos state commissioner for Information and Strategy. All the divisive religious and ethno-regional schemes of the Jonathan presidency will be of microscopic electoral consequence if APC offers Nigerians a ticket that stands for incorruptibility, competence and discipline. Given his appalling performance in office, Dr Jonathan is an eminently beatable incumbent but the ball is in APC’s court.

     

    ……Fayose and the Ekiti conundrum

    It is remarkable that while the Dr KayodeFayemi administration in Ekiti is winding down with grace and dignity showcasing an assortment of completed projects, Mr Ayo Fayose, the governor-elect, is preparing to assume office in the wake of a vicious, barbaric and unprecedented assault on the judiciary by his supporters. But what is playing out in Ekiti is in my view a conflict between elite and mass political cultures. The Ekiti elite, represented by the E-11 are clearly ill at ease with the earthy populism and unorthodox antics of Fayose. But these are what seem to have endeared him to the grassroots – okada riders, road transport union workers, market men and women and surprisingly even traditional rulers! This is exactly what happens when the elite abandon the duty of voting to the impressionable mob. For now, Fayose is the custodian of a popular mandate until the courts rule otherwise. Fayose is obviously set in his ways and does not seem to have learnt any lessons from the past. If so, the people of Ekiti should be left to face the consequences of their choice and make up their mind on what to do in four year’s time.

     

  • Unholy matrimony

    Unholy matrimony

    It is a torrid, impassioned and absolutely astounding love affair being played out between the church and the State in contemporary Nigeria. Millions of Christians watch in utter consternation and amazement as their leaders’ romance and legitimate corrupt power without embarrassment. Of course, a not insubstantial number of Christians have become victims of religion as numbing opium. Nothing will hinder the latter from continuing to revere their ‘daddies in the Lord’ even when the latter are implicated in the most brazen acts of criminality.

    The responsibility of the church is to offer spiritual leadership to its adherents as well as serve as conscience of the nation. This is a moral vocation. The state on its part exists to enforce the law, maintain order and stability as well as create the necessary environment for citizens to engage safely and securely in the ordinary business of life. This is a legal imperative. The monumental scandal involving the illegal smuggling of $9.3 million into South Africa on the private jet of Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor, President of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), offers a classical example of how the church has compromised its moral vocation while the state has abandoned its legal imperative to enforce the laws of the land justly and impartially.

    In normal and healthy societies, where the rule of law prevails, the state would have moved swiftly to investigate this scandal, which would necessarily involve interrogating Oritsejafor on his role in the sordid affair. The flamboyant pastor admits that the private jet involved belongs to him but had been leased to another agency in which he has a ‘residual interest’because of high maintenance costs. The initial company that leased the jet then leased the jet to another company, which, by implication should be held responsible for the criminal cash haul. This way, Pastor Oritsejafor thinks he has successfully distanced himself from the scandal. He emphatically claims that he knows nothing about the criminal cash transfer.

    However, he has had no answer so far to the devastating legal question posed by Mr Femi Falana (SAN). Falana contends that Oritsejafor has only further implicated himself by claiming that the jet was leased to another company because such an act is in itself a violation of the law. According to the SAN, “A jet registered for the facilitation of evangelism cannot be leased to another company for commercial purposes as churches are registered under part C of the Company and Allied (CAMA) as non-profit making organisations”. Oritsejafor claims that he obtained a permit to enable the jet fly in and out of the country. The question is: which agency issued such a permit and was it in consonance with the law?

    Rather than move decisively to investigate, identify and prosecute those responsible for violating the country’s laws, making nonsense of its own cashless policy and embarrassing the country by breaching South Africa’s financial transactions laws, President Goodluck Jonathan’s presidency has jumped to the pastor’s defence. The presidency claims that the money involved belongs to Nigeria and it was meant to procure arms in South Africa to strengthen the counter-insurgency offensive in the North-East. It cannot get more interesting than that. The money involved is the property of Nigeria and Dr Goodluck Jonathan is the President of Nigeria. The jet involved belongs to Pastor Oritsejafor and our beloved pastor is a close friend of the President. This is a curious vicious cycle indeed.

    This is a clear case of unholy matrimony between church and state in Nigeria. A pastor’s jet is allegedly used to perpetrate obvious criminality. A thorough investigation would probably tar the man of God leaving no option than his prosecution if indicted. To preclude such a possibility, the presidency wades in assuming ownership of the smuggled funds. Surely, no greater love than this can one entity have for another. It is a case of you rub my back I rub yours. The state turns a blind eye to brazen infringement of the country’s laws utilizing the private jet of a Christian leader in whom it is well pleased. In turn, the church turns a blind eye to the impunity, corruption and sheer irresponsibility of occupants of public office at all levels. It is a thrillingly romantic scenario.

    But then, it would be unfair to single out Pastor Oritsejafor for condemnation. He only symbolises a wider phenomenon of church-state romance that can only be ultimately destructive both for the church and the state. It is not surprising, for instance, that with the exception of Anthony Cardinal Okogie, no prominent Christian leader has come out to denounce Oritsejafor’s behaviour. Since silence means consent, I can only assume that all members of CAN agree with the body’sdiversionary and partisan statement issued in defence of Oritsejafor. That would be most unfortunate.

    The colourful pastor himself contends that the harsh criticism directed at him in the wake of the scandal is an attack on the body of Christ. I do not think so. Many of those who have heavily censured him are disappointed because of the high esteem in which he is held as a renowned pastor and his current symbolic office as CAN President. Matters are not helped by the unnecessarily combative stance he has adopted on the issue and the attempt by CAN to blame the opposition APC for the fiery darts of criticism hurled at the pastor on this matter. The truth is that millions of Nigerians who are not members of any political party are morally outraged by the scandal.

    It is understandable that many Christian leaders who are members of CAN will want to deal with this issue ‘in-house’ rather than in the media. They will be anxious to avoid further damage to the image of the organisation, the church and even the reputation of Christ. But it is, in my view, their silence and seeming condoning of wrongdoing that can bring the church to irredeemable disrepute. Even if they are not inclined to ask pastor Oritsejafor to step aside because he has not being proven guilty of any crime, they can prevail on him to publicly apologise for what is clearly a serious indiscretion on his part. That would be more in line with the humble spirit of Christ.

    …State of example

    I contended two weeks ago in this space that Nigeria owes Lagos State a debt of gratitude for the critical role it has played in containing the Ebola virus in the country. Since the index case, Thomas Sawyer, came in through Lagos, the entire country would have been endangered with a lethargic government in the state. Once the heroic Dr Stella Adadevou triggered the system, the Fashola administration responded admirably. But what was responsible for Lagos state’s success in this respect? I think the answer lies in proactive thinking and methodical, professional action as can be seen from the following points: (1) Lagos already had in place a public health law that empowered the state to compulsorily apprehend and place under isolation anyone considered to be a health risk to society. (2) The state already had in place a cremation law that allowed for the cremation of bodies. This is very vital since dead bodies are even more serious agents for the spread of Ebola Virus disease. (3) The well-publicised Ebola sensitisation visit of Lagos State officials to the Synagogue Church of All Nations helped to sensitise the entire nation and even religious leaders to the danger of the virus spreading through their large congregations. (4) Governor Fashola very thoughtfully publicly received and interacted with those who had been treated, certified free of the disease and discharged. This was a strategic move to deal with the stigmatisation problem. (5) Again, Fashola made the wise move of visiting the First Consultants Medical Centre at Obalende where the index case was prevented from escaping. This visit will help restore confidence in the health facility. (6) The Lagos State government last week disbursed N171 million as research grants to 31 beneficiaries from seven institutions and the governor promised to provide funding support for scientists involved in basic research to contain Ebola and other viral diseases. This is surely the way for Nigeria to go.

  • Odu’a Investment and South West integration

    The prime lesson of the outcome of the Scottish independence referendum is that centrifugal pulls are as powerful as centripetal forces in multinational states. Fifty-five percent of voters opted for Scotland to remain in the United Kingdom while 45% wanted an independent Scotland. In a fundamental sense, it is a win-win situation. Yes, the UK remains intact but governance in that jurisdiction will never be the same again. As Alistair Darling, leader of the pro-union side aptly puts it, the Scottish people voted for positive change without needless separation. British Prime Minister, Donald Cameron, has spoken of specific steps to be taken to strengthen regional autonomy not only for Scotland but also for England, Wales and Ireland within a given time frame. At the end of the day these reforms can only strengthen the UK.

    This column has always been reluctant to identify with those who sentimentally seek ethno-regional autonomy or separatism simply for the sake of it. Yes, it is imperative that powers, responsibilities and resources be considerably decentralised to strengthen Nigeria’s component units, reinforce our federal constitution and enhance the quality as well as efficiency of governance. Equally vital is the need for greater economic integration of the various geographically contiguous regions as a basis for accelerated national development. But none of this is incompatible with the existence of a strong and vibrant centre. A strong federal government and states that are substantially strengthened fiscally and statutorily are not mutually exclusive. Indeed, it can be a mutually reinforcing relationship as demonstrated by the commendable cooperation between the federal and state governments in combating the Ebola virus scourge.

    It is unfortunate that the advocacy for regional integration in Nigeria has focussed more on political than the more critical economic integration. I have argued, for instance, that the call in some quarters for the creation of another layer of government at regional level is an unnecessary and wasteful duplication of bureaucracy that can only increase the cost of governance to the detriment of development. In the South-West, considerable time, energy and funds have been expended in the pursuit of regional integration. However, the ultimate futility of regional integration at the political level was demonstrated by the discordant tunes among South-West states’ delegates at the Jonathan National Conference. The focus must be on regional economic integration, which is less problematic to actualize and will be far more beneficial. Indeed, a key factor that influenced the outcome of the Scottish referendum was the strong economic ties that bind the various nations that comprise the United Kingdom together.

    The visionary Chief Obafemi Awolowo had laid the foundation for the economic integration of the South-West with the establishment of such viable mega public corporations as the Western Nigeria Development Corporation (WNDC), the Finance Corporation and the Western Nigeria Housing Corporation to facilitate the aggressive economic and commercial development of the region in the first republic. In his book on the life and times of Awolowo titled, ‘Unfinished Greatness’, Olufemi Ogunsanwo writes that “WNDC spread its tentacles to manufacturing, banking, insurance, hotels and catering, property development and real estate. It floated a large number of companies and industries wholly owned by government or held in partnership with several foreign investors…More than half of these companies are still viable today and have been consolidated in the Odu’a Group of companies, the largest conglomerate in the history of Nigeria with total assets in excess of 10 trillion Naira in 2004”.

    There is no doubt that if the quality of governance achieved by Awolowo in the region had been sustained over the years, the Odu’a Investment Company would today be a major economic force to reckon with in Africa and even globally. It would be a major catalyst of the economic growth and integration of the region. Unfortunately, the company was also a victim of the visionless and criminally corrupt years of military misrule. But there is no use crying over spilt milk. The present crop of South-West governors has a historic responsibility to help restore the glory of the company and actualize its potentials as a potent vehicle for the economic transformation and integration of the region. To his credit, the immediate past Group Managing Director of the conglomerate, Alhaji Adebayo Jimoh, at least succeeded in stabilising the company and stemming its decline.

    In May this year, Mr Adewale Raji was appointed as the new GMD/CEO of the Odu’a group. I reliably gathered that he was picked through a competitive selection process supervised by the internationally renowned KPMG advisory services. With a working experience that spans over 28 years, he rose to become Managing Director, Distribution Services, of PZ Cussons Nigeria Group in June 2005 and was appointed into the multinational’s executive board in 2006. Expectations are thus high that he has what it takes to take the Odu’a group to the next level. His predecessor had the luck of spending nine unprecedented years in office. Raji must not presume he will enjoy such luxury. He thus has no choice but to think outside the box and hit the ground running in order to make an enduring impact in the shortest possible time.

    For starters, I think the new GMD should consider such low hanging fruits as the company’s potentials in the hospitality industry. I am told that the Lagos Airport Hotel Limited is one of the financial pillars of the group. If that is true, the credit goes to a tenacious and ingenious management that is able to bring out the best in its workforce in difficult conditions. Massive investment to upgrade facilities, staff welfare and services in such subsidiaries as Lagos Airport Hotel as well as both Premier and Lafia Hotels in Ibadan can make them more competitive and turn them into veritable goldmines for the group.

    And the South-West governors should work hard towards bringing in Lagos into the Odu’a group. It is unthinkable that the region’s strongest economy is not part of Odu’a Investment Company. Governors will come and go. Power will continuously change hands among different political parties. But Odu’a group will always remain. That is the beauty of economic integration.

  • Re – Osoba, Amosun and the Lagos model

    •“We have overflogged this issue of Amosun/Osoba. I watched on a TV station when Aremo said nobody should beg him and if they beg him he will not accept Amosun. Aremo is playing God. What is his gain to destroy the house he built? Aremo does not like Amosun and he wants to destroy Amosun NOT APC.Amosun will win in 2015”, 08035313169

    •“Osoba versus Amosun. Resolution of Ogun crisis could have been better handled before the congress but now it is too late with elected executives on ground”, 07057631041

    •“Osoba is acting God by his actions and words. He wants to be the one yesterday, today and eternity. A maa n’loyunegbon si inu ti omodeammarinnile. That is, age has no corollary with wisdom. Amosun must act elderly now by allowing Osoba and his ilk to destroy all they want. Suffice to say history will remember them. Their type is not new in Yoruba history”, 08055679465

    •“What actually is the problem in Ogun that Asiwaju and others can’t find solution to? Apart from his sterling performance, civil servants in Ogun are about the best paid in Nigeria. We civil servants in other states envy them but Amosun will win in 2015″, 08035836859

    •“Read your piece this morning in The Nation. I am 54 years old, not a politician, don’t live in Ogun state but from Ogun state. I visited Abeokuta last about 10 years ago, had cause to pass through sometime last month and I missed my way. I can’t believe what I saw in terms of development at least in Abeokuta. Please tell the Osobas of this world and his likes that dot the South-West it’s time they quit politics and allow these boys to perform. They have had their time and should let those of them performing to be and stop distracting them unnecessarily with sharing of party spoils”, 08033105727

    •“As you write you also teach. Your degree of fairness is superbly high. May God continue to guide you”, 08037090389

    •“The sins of Amosun cannot be forgiven by Osoba and his supporters for his efforts at defeating him in 2003. Senator Tinubu made Amosun ticket possible. Till date Amosun and his group is still regarded as alien in the party. Why? Let them stop saying ‘Se titi la ma je ni’. For eight years of OGD what were they eating? And the hawks are waiting. If they fail, they will all be losers but Amosun will be the hero of the electorate and respected in any party”, 08026537722

    ” Greetings. Like your piece on Amosun and Osoba. It is unfortunate Nigerians do not appreciate Shakespear’s memorable words on actors. We,have our entrances and exits when on stage. Nigerian politicians like Osoba do not think so. Osoba should be off the stage now. We do forget that he caused the loss of ACN to Daniel out of his inordinate ambition. He needs to be reminded how he will be remembered when the history of Ogun is written“, 08037040688.

  • Lagos, debt and development

    Lagos, debt and development

    “In reality, however, the experience of most Third World states suggests that  public foreign debt has been used mainly to create or maintain fiscal deficits. More often than not, such deficits are caused not by greater public investment but by higher public current consumption or, in some cases, grandiose and unprofitable investment.” – Professor Adebayo Olukoshi

    Nigerians certainly have every reason to be wary, suspicious and contemptuous of debts purportedly acquired on their behalf by governments at all levels. Ever since the General Olusegun Obasanjo military administration obtained the first jumbo external loan of US$1 billion to finance major public sector projects, the country’s debt profile has risen steeply with negligible impact on national development. By the time of Obasanjo’s second coming as civilian President in 1999, the country’s external debt had risen to over $30 billion. In 2005, his administration celebrated what it described as Nigeria’s liberation from debt peonage. The Obasanjo administration had scandalously agreed to pay the Paris Club of creditors $12.4 billion of debt arrears upfront to have its remaining debt written off.

    Of course, the country’s external debt stock has been steadily mounting again. According to the Debt Management Office (DMO), Nigeria’s current overall external debt by both federal and state governments stands at $9.377 million. The DMO is confident that this debt is sustainable and within healthy limits within the context of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The problem is that there continues for the most part to be very little to show for this debt partly due to the factors adduced by Professor Adebayo Olukoshi in the preceding quote. Corruption, inefficiency and poor governance continue largely to make a debt a hindrance to, rather than promoter of economic growth and development.

    Yet, the mismanagement of debt by irresponsible political and administrative elite does not discredit the fact that debt can be a viable vehicle for driving development. Debt is not a sin. It is not a crime. It is its misuse and abuse that is condemnable and obstructive of development. The sensational reporting of the external indebtedness of the Lagos State government by the media during the week clearly attempts to play on the ill-informed but understandable fear of debt by the general public. According to the reports, Lagos State owes 33.8% of the country’s total sub-national external debts. The state reportedly owes $1.01 billion of the total states’ external debt of $3.01 billion.  Components of this debt include $837.91 million from multilateral bodies and $82.5 million from bilateral sources.

    The loans obtained by Lagos State are for clearly stated purposes. For instance, in addition to an initial sum of $95 million, the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank has approved another tranche of $42 million loan deal to support the EKO secondary school project. Now, is this loan helping to achieve the objective for which it was obtained? According to the World Bank, the EKO school project has systematically benefitted over 620, 000 students a year in 667 public secondary schools in Lagos State between 2009 and 2013. More concretely, the bank reports that student scores from beneficiary schools went up from 30% to 70% in English, 31% to 41% in Mathematics and from 27% to 65% in basic sciences. And the results of the June 2013 West Africa School Certificate (WASC) external examinations showed that 41% of students from beneficiary schools passed with five credits and above as compared to just over 18% before the Lagos EKO project was implemented.

    Again, the World Bank has supported Lagos State’s public sector reforms including fiscal sustainability, budget planning, budget execution and improving the investment climate with a loan of $200 million. Its aim is to help the state “sustain the strong momentum it had achieved in improving public services, facilitating inclusive growth and reducing poverty”.

    And what is the World Bank’s assessment of the state’s performance in this regard? According to its Country Director for Nigeria, Marie Francoise Marie-Nelly, “Lagos State has sustained rapid growth and achieved what many would not have believed possible and has managed to reduce its poverty headcount from 57% in 2004 to 23% in 2010”.

    The truth is that Lagos State offers a model of how debt can be utilised to drive development. In 2002, the Tinubu administration raised N15 billion from the capital market. The fund was expended on such development projects as the Global Computerisation Programme, Millennium Micro Water Works, Construction and Rehabilitation of high courts, waste management projects and massive construction of classrooms among others. The bond was fully redeemed in September 2009. The first bond taken by the administration of Governor Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN) has been redeemed while the second tranche will be due for redemption by 2016. All over Lagos, there is concrete evidence of what the funds are being used for through the various projects being implemented in diverse sectors in an unprecedented manner. This on-going radical modernisation of infrastructure will elevate the economy of the state to a higher level while enhancing its capacity both to generate wealth and to repay its debt.

    Of course, there is still a lot to be done to get Lagos to the requisite level of development. For instance, the quality of grassroots governance needs to be radically overhauled. The local government councils can certainly do much better in constructing, rehabilitating and maintaining inner city roads. Better equipped, staffed and maintained primary health care centres will reduce pressure on secondary and tertiary health institutions. The Fashola administration can also do much more to reduce waste and the cost of governance. But overall, Lagos is far ahead of most states and the federal government on service delivery and provision of infrastructure. It is not generally acknowledged, for instance, that the entire country owes Lagos a debt of gratitude that the Ebola virus has been so effectively contained. If the Liberian, Thomas Sawyer, had entered the country through a state with a less alert and effective government, you can imagine what a terrible disaster it would have been for the whole country. In the management of its finances, including debt, Lagos offers a model for the rest of the country to follow.

    Rejoicing with Professor Adigun Agbaje

    It was the best of times; it was the worst of times. It was a season of hope; it was a season of despair. I paraphrase the famous opening words of Charles Dickens great novel on the French revolution, ‘A Tale of two Cities’. These are certainly not the best of times for Nigeria when, for instance, erratic viruses and lunatic terrorists pose such dangerous threats to life. Yet, there are also, daily, life and hope-affirming events and celebrations that are also expressions of faith in the possibilities of Nigeria and humanity. One such joyous occasions comes up today at the No. 3 Staff Quarters of the Cross River University of Technology, Calabar, when the families of Chief (Rtd Col.) Moses Effiong and Professor Adigun Agbaje, celebrate the traditional wedding of their children, Irene Iquo and Ayodamope Ikeolu.

    Professor Adigun Agbaje is one of Nigeria’s most eminent political scientists and a former Deputy Vice Chancellor of the University of Ibadan. He was one of a unique group of distinguished scholars who taught me the rudiments of political science at Ibadan. I remember in particular his foundational course on the ‘Logic and methods of political enquiry’ that taught us not only to detect crooked thinking but also to keep our own thinking straight. I am not surprised that his son, Ayodamope, also a social scientist, travelled far from his native Iwo in Osun state to choose a bride from the Niger Delta. Professor is one of the most broad- minded and detribalised human beings you can meet. Son has simply taken after the father. Love breaks down narrow ethno-regional barriers. The church wedding comes up here in Lagos on Saturday, September 27, at the Catholic Church of Presentation, Oba  Akinjobi Street, GRA, Ikeja. I am sure that many of Professor Agbaje’s students resident in Lagos will be on hand to celebrate and rejoice with a man who so selflessly imparted knowledge to us. Congratulations sir. I wish the couple a blissful and fulfilled married life.

  • Osoba, Amosun and the Lagos model

    Osoba, Amosun and the Lagos model

    I recently did a piece in this column titled  ‘Development Democracy and its Discontents’ in which, I weighed in heavily on the side of the Ogun State governor, Senator IbikunleAmosun, in his running battle with the former governor, AremoOlusegunOsoba and some other politicians within the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state. The reason for my position was simple. I had witnessed first- hand the phenomenal developmental strides achieved in diverse sectors in Ogun state under Amosun, a fact widely testified to within and outside the state. It was my view that, no matter the personal failings and weaknesses of Amosun as a mortal, he ought not to be distracted from his worthy service to the state for partisan political reasons. I argued that democracy could only promote progress and development when high achievers like Amosun are seen as assets to be supported rather than pulled down particularly by forces and tendencies within their own parties.

    I received scores of reactions to that piece. Some gave uncritical support to my rather harsh criticism of Amosun’s opponents within the Ogun APC. It is not impossible that these were hard core and, thus possibly biased supporters of the governor. Some others, however, were of the view that I ought to have been more nuanced in my analysis. They reasoned that all the blame could not be laid at the door steps of Osoba if many other key politicians in the state’s APC are equally at loggerheads with Amosun.

    Since then, the crisis in the Ogun APC has steadily deteriorated. Last weekend, Governor Amosun uncharacteristically granted extensive interviews to several national dailies. Before this he had given the impression of preferring to allow his undeniable achievements speak for him. While articulating the policy conceptualisation, implementation, challenges, projections and attainments of his administration, Amosun also spoke on his relationship with AremoOsoba. He affirmed that he would never fight Osoba whom he respects as his leader. This in itself is an indication of things not being well between the two. On his part, it is speculated strongly that AremoOsoba is set to launch a new political party, the Action Group, to thwart Amosun’s re-election for a second term.

    Of course, the conflict between ex-office holders and incumbents, godfathers and godsons has been a recurrent feature of Nigerian politics since the first republic. The face- off between Chief ObafemiAwolowo as party leader of the Action Group (AG) and LadokeAkintola as Premier of the Western region resulted in the implosion of the party and ultimately the collapse of the first republic. There are indications, that despite Akintola’s perceived perfidy, Awolowo with the benefit of hindsight wished the intra-party crisis had been handled differently. Thus, in the second republic, he insisted that the UPN governors must also double as the state chairmen and leaders of the party. He had come to realise through bitter experience that there must be a healthy balance between the desirability of party discipline and loyalty and respect for elected wielders of executive authority on the platform of the party.

    Should the crisis in the Ogun state APC have been allowed to degenerate to this level? Would this unsavoury situation have been averted through the adoption of the ‘Lagos model’? And what is this model? In 2007, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu quit office after serving two terms. He was succeeded by Mr BabatundeRajiFashola (SAN) a focussed, no-nonsense technocrat. Not being a politician, Fashola had no political structure of his own. Of course, he could have used the immense powers and resources of his office to either hijack the existing structure or create one of his own. Several governors had successfully done this obliterating the political edifice of their predecessors and benefactors. Fashola chose a different course. He refused to be distracted by politics. He focussed in an unprecedented manner on governance leaving the time and energy consuming intricacies of politics to his predecessor. There thus evolved a healthy division of labour – the governor focussing on development, Tinubu managing the politics.

    Did BRF, through this attitude, not take an undue risk making his political future vulnerable to forces beyond his control? On the contrary, his spectacular performance made him an invaluable asset to the party. The defunct ACN could not have credibly and logically denied him a second term. Yet, Tinubu could also take tremendous credit not only for laying the foundation for BRF’s attainments but also for the prescience of correctly identifying and assessing his successor’s exceptional leadership qualities. Were things always rosy and smooth-going between Tinubu and Fahola? That would have been humanly impossible. But I believe that mutual respect, wisdom, tact and the overriding party and state interest were always the balancing factors.

    Could this model have been adopted in Ogun with Amosun focussing on governance and Osoba managing the politics? The answer, unfortunately is no. Unlike BRF, Amosun already had a solid political structure before becoming governor. Amosun was an elected Senator between 2003 and 2007. His structure is acknowledged to have played a pivotal role in OtunbaGbenga Daniel’s emergence as governor in 2003. He made a spirited bid for the office against OGD in 2007. His formidable political structure was a major, pragmatic consideration in Amosun’sbeing chosen to fly the ACN governorship ticket in 2011. The first problem was that Amosun had to play a delicate balancing act between his own political structure coming in from the ANPP and the existing ACN structure on the ground. Neither Osoba nor Amosun could have realistically abandoned control of the political terrain entirely to the other. It could not be a win-win situation for both.

    The second complication was Amosun’s decision to adopt a technocratic approach to governance. Thus, his cabinet largely comprises technocrats rather than hard core politicians. Thus, his critics contend that at least five local government areas are not represented in his cabinet. Again, the sheer ambitious scale of the projects embarked upon by his administration has drastically reduced the funds available for political patronage. This may be good for governance but it is dangerous for politics. For, the implication is that disenchanted and demotivated politicians will readily gravitate towards Amosun’s opponents either within the APC or in other parties.

    Amosun’s media interviews indicate his confidence that he will win re-election on the basis of his impressive performance record. But then, why go into an election with a divided house? Yes, the governor is justified to be concerned and preoccupied about winning a second term to consolidate on his current efforts. But he also has a historic responsibility to do all in his power to bequeath to posterity a progressive party platform that is stronger and more cohesive than he met it. That is the best way to ensure that his legacy endures and is sustained beyond his personal tenure in office.At the end of the day, Amosun and Osoba do not have to like each other. But it is in their mutual interest to work together or self-destruct separately. Surely, it should not be impossible for Amosun to demonstrate respect for Osoba as his political leader not just in words but also in deeds. And AremoOsoba is politically mature and experienced enough to know that an incumbent governor also deserves a reasonable degree of respect and operational latitude. In the final analysis, the crises in the Ogun, Oyo and other chapters of the APC indicate the absence of an effective conflict monitoring, prevention and resolution mechanism within the party that must be addressed urgently.

  • Ikimi, Tinubu and APC

    Ikimi, Tinubu and APC

    Chief  Tom Ikimi, who is the latest mani festation of the virus of political vagrancy in Nigeria, deserves commendation for at least rigorously, meticulously and logically attempting to justify and rationalise his decision to quit the All Progressives Congress (APC). His treatise, titled ‘My Reflections’, is no doubt a valuable document for students of Nigerian politics. Of course, like all analysts and historians, he tells his story from his own perspective based on certain assumptions, facts and values that others may consider biased, selective, self-serving and jaundiced. But that is no sin. After all, others can also write their own version of history in which they are puritans, saints and principled heroes no matter the depth of their ideological and moral bankruptcy. Ikimi is a rebel with a grouse. His pain is that he was prevented from emerging as National Chairman of an APC that he believes he worked harder than any other person to bring into being.

    Chief Ikimi writes with passion about his commitment and sacrifice towards constructing an alternative political platform to challenge the PDP for power. His vision is that of a Nigeria in which power oscillates periodically between two dominant parties through the ballot box. But what would be the ideological content of such political platforms? Would power simply rotate between the two alternate parties for its own sake? Should the APC seek to replace the PDP only to continue with the same bankrupt neo-liberal and excessively centrist political and economic policies that have spelled disaster for Nigeria since 1999? Ideology hardly features in Ikimi’s lengthy treatise on party construction. He thus does not see the irony when he writes that “It is not a coincidence to me that the prominent members of APC targeted by Bola Tinubu such as Alhaji Attahiru Bafarawa, Senator Ali Modu Sherrif and myself as former NRC member are those perceived as conservatives”. Pray, what are professed conservatives doing in a supposedly progressive party? As the APC Chairman, Chief Odigie-Oyegun rightly noted as regards the on-going party defections and counter defections, “What is happening really is that the PDP and APC are being purified. All the birds that ought to flock together are beginning to fly together. That is a good thing for the country; it is good for the APC and the PDP”.

    Unfortunately, the rigour and quality of Ikimi’s analysis is blunted by his obsessive preoccupation with the person of Tinubu. As far as Ikimi is concerned, Tinubu is the alpha and omega of his woes in the APC. Adopting crude ‘bolekaja’ tactics, he employs rumour, innuendo, unproven insinuations and even gossip in an attempt to savage Tinubu’s reputation. For instance, he asserts that Tinubu boasts that he is the sole financier of the APC. He does not tell us where and to whom such claims were made. In any case, Tinubu has been known to have given strong financial support to whatever political causes he believes in right from the pro-democracy struggle that resulted in the present political dispensation. Wondering about the source of Tinubu’s wealth, Ikimi alludes to “whispers in the inner circles of the party” that “Tinubu is the recipient and dispenser of bags and bags of party funds” as well as “the beneficiary of most of the lucrative contracts in all the ACN states without exception”. The respected chief does not give a scintilla of concrete evidence to support these insinuations. In any case, Ikimi is himself a man of immense wealth and there is no evidence that his riches “derive from any stupendous inheritance, ancient or modern”.

    Utilising one’s financial resources to further set political objectives is no sin. Chief Obafemi Awolowo was able to found and run viable political parties in the first and second republics as well establish as the country’s oldest private newspaper in the country because he had the means to do so. This is why the vindictive Coker Commission of Enquiry accused him of building a political empire around himself based on financial wealth – the same kind of allegation levelled against Tinubu today. When the defunct National Concord newspaper mischievously published that Awolowo owned 360 plots of land in Maroko in 1983, the sage famously noted that “if a poor man is fighting for the poor, he is accused of being jealous of the rich and if a rich man fights for the poor, he is asked to first of all go and commit class suicide!” He wondered how he could have sustained his political struggles if did not have a solid financial base. MKO Abiola’s wealth was a key factor in enabling him to build the national political network responsible for his decisive victory in the June 12, 1993, presidential election.

    According to Ikimi, Tinubu boasts that “he has control of all the votes from South West Nigeria”. We are not told where or when such an absurd claim was or to whom. Yes, Tinubu and the tendency he symbolises has become a major force in the politics of the South West. No one familiar with the politics of the Yoruba will ever claim that he is the custodian of “all the votes” of such a proud and politically sophisticated people. Ikimi apparently underrates Tinubu’s intelligence. There is a major contradiction that runs through Ikimi’s otherwise rigorous analysis. On the one hand, he creates a superhuman image of a Tinubu who dominates the APC and can manipulate and steer the party in any direction he wants for his selfish interest. On the other hand, he brilliantly paints the picture of the APC as an emergent dynamic party with contending and countervailing interests that are simply too volatile and unpredictable for one man to dominate.

    Some of the contending forces at play within the APC, as rightly noted by Ikimi include regional caucuses, legislative caucuses, the influential governors’ forum as well as caucuses built around such powerful individual politicians like General Muhammadu Buhari and Alhaji Abubakar Atiku. Given the vitality and vibrancy of these interests, it is impossible, for instance, for one person or tendency to unilaterally determine the colouration of the party’s presidential ticket. The final decision will be the outcome of intricate and delicate negotiations, balancing, compromises and trade- offs. At the end of the day the party’s saving grace will be transparent, free and fair primaries conducted in strict fidelity to the party constitution. Going by Ikimi’s own logic, for instance, Tinubu would have wanted Chief Bisi Akande to continue as National Chairman because of his alleged preference for a “weak national leadership” that could be easily manipulated. At the end of the day, Ikimi writes, Tinubu and others had to reach a compromise that resulted in the emergence of the current APC leadership. That is the beauty of democracy. It completely makes nonsense of Ikimi’s attempt to portray the APC as a one-man party.

    Ikimi is unhappy that Tinubu “parades himself as party leader and leader of opposition”. That Tinubu is a notable leader of the APC and has been at the forefront of political opposition since 1999 is beyond dispute. It is impossible for Ikimi to re-write history. His insinuation that Chief Bisi Akande and Chief John Odigie-Oyegun are ‘weak’ leaders vulnerable to external manipulation is completely misguided. A core and unrepentant Awoist, Akande is as principled and spartanly disciplined as they come. His perceived rigidity on principles is a major reason why he lost the 2003 governorship election in Osun despite his sterling performance in office. Ace columnist, Professor Olatunji Dare, who is not flippant with praise, has attested to Oyegun’s character, competence and ability. Given his years of experience in politics and the tireless efforts he contributed to the merger that resulted in the APC, Ikimi should look beyond Tinubu for his failure to emerge as the party’s national chairman. It is not impossible that he is being haunted by the moral burden of his political past.

  • Ribadu and the spectre of political vagrancy

    Ribadu and the spectre of political vagrancy

    But then, if there is no real difference between the two major parties, should Ribadu not more logically have refused to cast his lot with either? Now that he has cast his lot with the PDP, those he has fought vigorously all his life will do everything to abort his ambition. Are we likely to witness the premature eclipse of an otherwise promising political career? Time will tell 

    In his classic essay titled “Case For Ideological Orientation”, Chief Obafemi Awolowo declared that “In any theatre of life with which he is identified, every one of us has an orientation…If you meet a politician who is unwilling or unable, to declare and, as precisely as possible, describe his position in relation to the cardinal points of political compass, you will feel strongly tempted to denounce him as a fraud, a total misfit or a hopeless drifter”. Affirming his own commitment to the ideology of democratic socialism, the sage contended further that “…the aim of any progressive government must include social justice, equal opportunity for all, respect for human dignity and the welfare and happiness of all, regardless of creed, parentage and station in life”. Thus, in concrete policy terms, the parties led by Awolowo in the first and second republics – the Action Group (AG) and Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), respectively, were committed to the provision of free education, free health care, full employment, rural integration and development as well as massive development of infrastructure. The more conservative inclined parties such as the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) and the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) of the first and second republics were less inclined to utilise state resources for the provision of social welfare services for the vast majority of the people. They rather preferred policies that would help cultivate a viable business class and thriving private sector capable of spurring economic growth believing that the masses would ultimately benefit from the ‘trickle down’ effects of such policies.

    Despite the existence of a multiplicity of political parties, there has always been the tendency towards a broad-based two-party system in Nigeria. Thus, in the first republic, the party system was systematically coalescing into two broad alliances, the conservative Nigerian National Alliance (NNA) comprising the NPC and its allies and the more progressive United Peoples Grand Alliance (UPGA) made up of the AG, NCNC and smaller parties from the Middle Belt and Calabar, Ogoja and Rivers (COR) provinces. This tendency was replicated in the second republic when two broad party alliances emerged – the NPN and its allies as well as the Progressive Parties Alliance (PPA) comprising the UPN, NPP and the more radical factions of the PRP and the GNPP. It was obviously the manifestation of this two party tendency that informed the formation by the Babangida regime of two state-created parties, the ‘little to the left’ Social Democratic Party  (SDP) and the ‘little to the right’ National Republican Convention (NRC). Of course, IBB’s novel attempt at political engineering crashed as a result of his own vaulting ambition to perpetuate himself in office, which led to his disastrous annulment of the June 12, 1993, presidential election.

    True, the phenomenon of political vagrancy – the tendency for political actors to move opportunistically and arbitrarily from one party to another irrespective of their ideological disposition – has been a feature of Nigerian politics right from the first republic. With each successive dispensation, political parties have become less of vehicles for the articulation and implementation of public policies based on distinct ideological platforms and more of veritable vote-harvesting machines through which political actors acquire power largely for the criminal and primitive accumulation of wealth. The more the role of ideology has been de-emphasised in Nigeria’s politics, the more politicians across board have tended to prostitute themselves moving embarrassingly from one party to the other in their quest for power, devoid of principle. This problem has considerably worsened in contemporary Nigeria where we now have two major parties, the entrenched People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the emergent All Progressives Congress (APC) made up of a merger of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). The rapid movement of political actors from one of these parties to the other and back to their former abode has been quite dizzying and stupefying. As it were, this seems to mark, finally, the ‘end of ideology’ in Nigerian politics.

    The latest example of political vagrancy on display is that of the movement of Mallam Nuhu Ribadu from the APC to the PDP. This development has left many disappointed and dismayed. As head of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) during the Obasanjo presidency, the fear of Ribadu was the beginning of wisdom. He fought corruption with unprecedented passion and ferocity. His detractors have accused Ribadu of having gone only after Obasanjo’s perceived political foes. But no one has been able to prove that even a single one of the corrupt elements whom Ribadu single-mindedly prosecuted and got convicted was innocent of the crime of corrupt enrichment. Ribadu won national and international acclaim for his anti-graft offensive. It was this solid character and anti-corruption record of Ribadu that the defunct ACN sought to profit from when it fielded Ribadu as its presidential candidate in the 2011 presidential election. While most knowledgeable Nigerians readily admit that corruption is the greatest menace threatening Nigeria’s progress and very existence, they were reluctant to give Ribadu their votes at the polls. Most of those who voted for General Muhammadu Buhari, the CPC candidate, who also has an impeccable anti-corruption record, did so more for religious and ethno-regional rather than ethical reasons. There is no reason to believe that even now, corruption is a serious issue with the average Nigerian voter.

    Indeed, the ACN saw that a bloc- vote for Ribadu in the South-West in the 2011 election, could lead to a stalemate with no candidate being able to secure the necessary constitutional requirement to emerge as winner in the first ballot. The result would be a likely run-off between President Jonathan and Buhari. The ACN leadership, given the perceived contempt with which it was treated by the CPC did not feel inclined to give the CPC such a helping hand. This resulted in the voting pattern in the South-West that aided Jonathan’s victory on the first ballot. Against this background, can anyone really blame Ribadu if he sees the PDP as offering him a more viable and feasible platform to emerge as governor of Adamawa State given the current socio-economic and political realities of Nigeria? Can anyone fault Ribadu if he has become tired of battering his head in futility against a rock solid wall of the corrupt Nigerian establishment? If he is able to hold a prominent political office on the platform of any party, will Ribadu not be in a vantage position to demonstrate practically the anti-corruption values he has consistently and vigorously espoused? Of course, the downside is that once he is helped to power by the very forces of corruption he has so fiercely and viciously denounced, he may no longer have the moral authority to lead any battle against corruption. For, those who helped him up the power ladder can also readily engineer his downfall if he attempts to play any game of self-righteousness.

    Justifying his defection to the PDP and obtaining the party’s nomination form for the Adamawa state governorship election, Ribadu reportedly contended that there is little or no difference ideologically and morally between the PDP and APC. This may be true to some extent. However, most APC governors have undoubtedly provided more inspirational, visionary and productive governance in their respective states than the PDP has done at the centre since 1999. Yet, it is difficult to distinguish between the bankrupt neo-liberal economic policies of the PDP at the centre and those of the state governments including those controlled by the APC. This is why reactionary elements of the PDP particularly in the South-West have been able to mischievously position themselves as champions of the common man without articulating any coherent programme for the liberation of the latter from misery and poverty? But then, if there is no real difference between the two major parties, should Ribadu not more logically have refused to cast his lot with either? Now that he has cast his lot with the PDP, those he has fought vigorously all his life will do everything to abort his ambition. Are we likely to witness the premature eclipse of an otherwise promising political career? Time will tell.

  • Of madness and Ebola

    Of madness and Ebola

    The outbreak of the vicious, deadly and unsparing Ebola Virus Disease demonstrates, once again just how fragile, vulnerable, insecure and unpredictable human existence can be. Massive natural disasters can occur in an instant sending millions to an unanticipated grave. New diseases surface without notice to wreak havoc on humanity. Even human behaviour is unpredictable. Who knows when, where and how depraved terrorists will strike next on their impassioned mission of destruction? Remember 9/11. Remember the on-going tragedy of Chibok. It is the very unpredictability of the future that makes efficient organisation of society vital to human survival. Eternal vigilance through good, effective and competent governance is the only way for society to develop the capacity to respond decisively to contain unanticipated challenges. The Ebola threat also shows how interconnected humanity really is despite our diversity. That which unites us as a species is far more important than the things that divide us. We simply cannot afford not to be our brother’s keeper. Incompetent and careless governance anywhere can have negative implications for human existence everywhere. That is the crucial lesson being taught by the ruthless Ebola predator.

    Of course, I can understand President Goodluck Jonathan’s anger and exasperation when he described the Liberian, the late Patrick Sawyer, through whom the Ebola Virus was brought into Nigeria as a mad man. Many Nigerians will surely share this sentiment. After all, Sawyer knew he had the disease. He knew the implications of his travelling out of Liberia and the danger he posed to anyone he came in contact with. His action was thus deliberate. But then, can anybody be afflicted with such a venomous affliction and still retain his or her rationality? Confronted with such a predicament, an imminent appointment with death, will the human mind not become a whirlwind of incoherent, confused thoughts? Can anyone predict how he would react in the face of such a terrifying reality? But then, when we adjudge others as mad, we presume that we are sane. But is our assumed sanity, many times, not difficult to distinguish from the presumed madness of others? Let me explain.

    We have all known for some time that some West African countries including Liberia were hit by the Ebola epidemic. There had been reports of hundreds of deaths in those countries. We knew that Nigeria, particularly her major commercial centres, is a prime destination for people across West Africa. What anticipatory steps did we take to protect our people against the invasion of the virus? Why were our immigration officers and health workers not placed on red alert and measures taken to screen entrants into the country, especially from vulnerable nations, for the virus? As Mr Femi Kusa wrote in his column in this newspaper on Thursday, “The government should investigate how the Liberian who brought Ebola virus to Nigeria beat immigration officers to it. They should have known he was a Liberian and stopped him”. But I speak here not just of a failure of governance at all levels. Rather, it is a collective failure of society including the media. Why, for instance, did leading columnists, editorialists or public affairs analysts fail to sensitise government and the general public to the dangers posed by Ebola long before now? We are all complicit. This kind of suicidal complacency and laxity is a more dangerous form of madness than that exhibited by the late Sawyer.

    But then was Patrick Sawyer’s trip to Nigeria a spontaneous and irrational act of madness? If his widow is to be believed, he carefully and rationally calculated and planned his trip to Nigeria. According to her “He didn’t tell me this, but I know in my heart of hearts that Patrick was determined to get to Nigeria by all means because he felt that Nigeria would be a place of refuge…Patrick went to Nigeria for help so that he can get properly diagnosed and not misdiagnosed in Liberia. And if it came back that he did have Ebola, he trusted the Nigerian health care system a lot more than he trusted Liberia’s…Patrick didn’t want to die and he thought his life would be saved in Nigeria”.

    Well, some may see this as the biased rationalisations of a mourning wife. But Mrs Sawyer’s submissions raise some pertinent questions. Patrick Sawyer was an American citizen. His wife and daughters live in the US. He knew that the US has a superior healthcare system to Nigeria’s and would probably have preferred to go there. But he also probably knew that he did not have the slightest chance of gaining entry into the US in his condition. The US system had put in place effective measures to protect its citizens against Ebola and other killer plagues. But he obviously reckoned that he could easily beat Nigeria’s lax system and was proved right after all. There was a method to his madness. If he had not physically taken ill at the airport, the ailing man would have simply walked through the various check points and disappeared into thin air – a veritable mobile weapon of mass destruction.

    Yes, I am aware that Sawyer was rushed to the hospital at Obalende from the airport and it was only later that he was diagnosed as suffering from Ebola Virus fever. But if the relevant agencies and the general public had been sufficiently sensitised as regards the danger of Ebola and anticipatory measures put in place, there would have been greater vigilance and caution in handling this case in the interest of public safety.The very fact that Sawyer was Liberian and ill should have triggered an alarm in the system right from the Murtala Muhammed International Airport leading to greater caution on the part of all that would have probably saved the lives now needlessly lost and others that are still endangered. Those with him on the flight would have been better tracked and monitored rather than being allowed to simply disperse in different unknown directions.

    However, there is absolutely nothing irrational about the late Sawyer expecting Nigeria to have a better and more effective healthcare system than Liberia. Given Nigeria’s abundant natural and human resources, there is no reason why the country should not have a world-class health care system that would offer hope and succour to her own people and those of less endowed African countries. Until we get rid of the current impunity and disregard for the rule of law that erodes the country’s immunity against monumental corruption and gross irresponsibility in public office, the Nigerian state will not develop the capacity to effectively protect its citizens from the vagaries of existence in our dangerous world. The virus of impunity is to the Nigerian state what Ebola is to the human body. It is the more urgent ‘madness’ that must be checked if we are not to continue to be the victims of the ‘madness’ of the Patrick Sawyers of this world.

  • Birth pangs of a new order

    Birth pangs of a new order

    On the surface the impression one gets  is that democracy in the true sense of the word is greatly enfeebled and endangered if not absolutely non-existent in Nigeria today. Some contend that we have simply exchanged military for civilian dictatorship since 1999. This is substantially true. Yet, I believe that, against undeniably daunting odds, the country is marching forcefully and irresistibly on the path to true democracy.  Of course the forces of reaction are staunchly opposed to the emergence of a genuinely democratic and federal Nigeria. They ceaselessly devise new and ever more sophisticated methods to undermine the rule of law, sabotage federal ethos and dress the most fascistic measures in democratic robes. Yet, beyond surface appearances and transient, illusory ‘victories’ such as witnessed in the Ekiti June 21 governorship polls, the people are winning.

    The battle between reaction and progress in contemporary Nigeria shifts today to Osun State. Today the people of Osun will decide who will preside over their affairs for another four years. Let me quickly say that I am under no illusion that  the forces of reaction in Nigeria are completely devils and those of progress are untainted saints. The acquisition and utilization of state power as a means of primitive accumulation of wealth is common to both ideological camps and is largely a function of the character of Nigeria’s dependent, backward and neo-colonial political economy. However, the progressives have demonstrated a greater capacity, will and vision to stimulate real development and lift people out of poverty through massive infrastructure renewal, job creation and the provision of qualitative social services.

    In Ekiti, the reactionaries believe they demonstrated convincingly that performance in office does not matter.  A performing incumbent governor was overwhelmingly defeated by an opponent who presented no coherent manifesto to the electorate. Worse, the winner in the election had a dismal record in his previous outing as governor of the state and his party has handled the affairs of the country most catastrophically since 1999 that it has been in control at the centre. The reactionaries are thus ecstatic that all Nigerians care for is the immediate gratification of their stomachs. Tomorrow does not matter. Thus, the formula for electoral victory is simple. Distribute bags of rice and tons of money to the hungry, gullible electorate. Deploy federal might to cow those who refuse to mortgage their votes and future. Electoral success will be assured and governance can go to blazes.

    The campaign leading up to today’s election in Osun has been most interesting. The progressives have showcased the spectacular accomplishments of the incumbent who within a short period has taken unprecedented steps to turn the fortunes of the state around in various sectors. They have been wooing the electorate to vote the incumbent for a second term on the basis of his solid and undeniable record in office. The reactionaries have showcased their control of federal might to the people. Their candidate has taken to riding on okadas or eating roast corn by the roadside. He has presented no superior alternative programmes or policies to that of the incumbent. Unfortunately, unlike Ekiti, the reactionaries in Osun are faced with an incumbent who has been working and walking with the people on the streets right from his first day in office. The tag of elitist cannot stick on him even though he is as cerebral as they come.

    As I write these words, we are driving out of Osogbo, the Osun State capital, back to Lagos. The state has been heavily militarized. Heavily armed soldiers have mounted checkpoints across the capital. Sirens ceaselessly pierce the air as various security agencies continually demonstrate their potency and capacity to the populace. The aim seems to be to shock and awe the opposition into submission. Yet, from my observations in the state capital, the incumbent has a cult-like grassroots following. This is reported to be the case in many other parts of the state. His main challenger is also said to be strong on the ground in his native Ile-Ife and adjoining Local Government areas. It is obvious that if the results announced do not reflect the will of the people in the respective strongholds of the candidates, there will be a spontaneous negative reaction that all the militarization in the world will be unable to contain.

    To be fair, the soldiers we encounter at the checkpoints within and leading out of Osogbo are polite, courteous and professional. They have their name tags on and they have no masks on. Some of them even crack jokes with us. The impression I get is that the genuine and legitimate members of the armed forces deployed to Osogbo are performing their duties within the limits of their professional rules and ethics. This thus lends credence to the allegation that those purported members of the security agencies who have been behaving like terrorists in parts of Osun State, wearing masks, shooting into the air and harassing citizens re not genuine security professionals. They are reportedly trained armed militias who have been provided with fake uniforms and armed to help pervert the electoral process in Osun. A senior security operative told me that it would be exceedingly difficult to directly use any of the constitutionally established security agencies in the brazenly partisan manner that has been witnessed under Musliu Obanikoro and Jelili Adesiyan as helmsmen at the Ministries’ of defence and police affairs respectively. From his initial utterances as the new Acting Inspector General of Police, however, it appears that the loquacious, obsequious and theatrical Suleiman Abba, is ready to breach all professional ethics to worship at the altar of the presidency.

    Ironically, it is the very resort to the excessive militarization of elections by the Jonathan presidency that convinces me that the march to genuine democracy is irreversible in Nigeria. Such militarization and obscene show of brute force actually masks a growing helplessness and powerlessness on the part of the entrenched political forces at the centre. They are getting increasingly vulnerable, insecure and fearful of the affirmation of popular power in free and fair elections. The unintended consequences of such arrogant exhibition and utilization of federal might is that it will most likely embolden the people to defy federal might and develop the capacity to defend their votes. As the British historian, Arnold Toynbee noted, development occurs across space and time when individuals and groups are forced to respond to challenges. Militarization has become a challenge to Nigeria’s democracy. The organization and manifestation of people’s power will be the response and democracy will be the beneficiary.

    Beyond this, the core of the leadership of Nigeria’s security agencies are highly trained professionals who are reportedly unhappy with the increasingly brazen politicization of the agencies. In this age of globalization, they realize that the Nigerian military-security complex can only be truly effective, competitive and professional if its values are not corrupted by partisanship. Continued militarization of elections to ensure pre-determined partisan outcomes is thus likely to elicit subtle resistance within the security hierarchy with negative consequences. From my reading of the mood in Osun, if the result of today’s election does not reflect the will of the people, there will most likely be a spontaneous backlash. If the deployed officers and men go on a killing spree in response, Nigeria’s current military high command must be told that they will be liable at the International Criminal Court of Justice in a post-Jonathan era, which will surely come sooner or later. The excesses we are seeing in the militarization of elections under the Jonathan presidency may be a sign of hope after all. The old order is dying. The new is struggling to be born. What we are witnessing are the death throes of the old and the birth pangs of the new.