The Nation Newspaper

Category: Barometer

  • NERC, DISCOs and vexatious tariffs

    NERC, DISCOs and vexatious tariffs

    On the surface, the new electricity tariff approved by the Nigeria Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) should help address the massive subsidies tearing the power sector apart. Between 2015 and 2023, says the commission, the nation subsidised electricity consumption by about N348trn. This is exceedingly huge, though the agency does not quite show how it arrived at this figure. But it argues that if the new tariff regime, begun since April 3, is allowed to work, some N1.14trn would be saved this year in subsidies, a sum significant enough to begin changing the dynamics of the power sector. In order to anchor this policy, only 15 percent of electricity consumers classified into Band A would bear the burden of the new tariff regime. Instead of the previous N66 charged per kilowatt/hour of consumption, they are to pay N225 per kilowatt/hour. The steep rise in tariff has predictably triggered a bad-tempered debate on the timing and propriety of the increase.

    Apart from the public which has generalised the increase, instead of limiting it, as NERC has done, to a category of consumers, the House of Representatives has also waded into the skirmish by asking NERC to stay action on the increase. Whether the commission will heed the lawmakers is unclear. But in addition the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) on May Day gave NERC an ultimatum to reverse the increase or face industrial action. But the hunch of most Nigerians is that the real public dissatisfaction with the new tariffs will manifest when the first bills come out in early May. The lower class will discover their bills have been minimally affected, while the upper class consumers, including factories, who by the way influence and shape public discourse and instigate actions, will be numbed by their new bills. It is also not known why NERC advocates this humongous leap in tariff in one fell swoop instead of gradual increments. May 2024, it is now clear, will determine everything, especially as this eerie month seems to crystallise policies inflicting hardship on the people.

    Read Also: IPOB threatens to chase EEDC out of southeast

    As the Bola Tinubu administration battles with resetting the economy, particularly doing away with a whole regime of subsidies unwisely and incompetently implemented over the decades to the immense distress of the economy, it must find the ingenuity to contend with the drawbacks of the electricity tariff increases. Two major things are wrong with the new tariffs, and they invite the administration to reconsider the cost and benefit of the policy. Firstly, the policy is poorly timed. The Power ministry, NERC and the administration should have waited until the NLC minimum wage agitation was resolved before adjusting the tariffs. Now, even though they are agitating against the tariffs, the labour unions have nevertheless factored the increases into their wage demands. They are justified. And considering that Nigerians are still struggling to cope with, or recalibrate their incomes to meet, the new demands on their household incomes, and recognising also that the economy could not be completely or significantly reset in two years, let alone in a few months, the administration should have both phased its war against subsidies as well as synchronised the responses of the ministries to the distressed and disarticulated economy.

    Secondly, Power minister Adebayo Adelabu simply fails to understand the main problem with the new tariff regime. The problem is not whether tariff should be adjusted upwards; it is long overdue. The problem is also not whether discriminatory pricing of electricity consumption should be instituted; NERC has always done that anyway. The chief problem, however, is how the increases and discriminating tariffs are conceived and implemented. The capacity to pay or income of the consumer should never, ever be tied to the amount of electricity supplied to a consumer. By tying supply, in this case 20 hours for Band A, to the ability to pay, is iniquitous, discriminatory and unfeeling. A better approach is to ensure uninterrupted supply to every consumer, while discriminatory pricing should then follow and be specific to neighbourhoods. To give more hours of supply to the rich and fewer hours to the poor is a bad policy unmitigated by public sentiments for and against subsidies. Indeed, the administration must be careful about policy overload, particularly policies that eat away at the people’s disposable income and further impoverish them.

    NERC and the DISCOs have put the cart before the horse with discriminatory pricing. They will not only contend with inflation certain to accompany manufactured goods, they must also contend with angry Nigerians who see the administration as unfeeling and contemptuous of the poor. This is a case of an ordinarily great policy badly and callously executed. NERC and the Power ministry should seize the opportunity of the House of Representatives motion to remedy the poorly considered policy. In the end they may not need to reduce the tariffs by a substantial margin or lose overall in terms of revenue. In fact in the end, if they are patient and reasonable, they will be the chief gainer.

  • Edo, Ondo polls: a tale of two states

    Edo, Ondo polls: a tale of two states

    Both Edo and Ondo States have completed their governorship primaries. In Edo, after a false start, the All Progressives Congress (APC) finally in February managed to get its aspirants to unite into a ticket hosting both Monday Okpebholo, a senator, who polled 12,433 votes during the repeat primary, and Dennis Idahosa, who was initially declared winner of the first primary, but scored 6,541 votes at the repeat primary. They seem to be prepared to forge ahead in the face of a rancorous Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) whose candidate, Asue Ighodalo, is alleged by dissenters to have been foisted on the party by Governor Godwin Obaseki. Incumbency will only be partly relevant in Edo, but significantly relevant in the Ondo poll where a sitting governor, Lucky Aiyedatiwa, not the outgoing governor Mr Obaseki, is contesting the governorship.

    Read Also: IPOB threatens to chase EEDC out of southeast

    Nothing is, however, predictable in Ondo State. The Ondo primary reportedly witnessed a lot of manipulations inspired and orchestrated by the governor’s supporters. The election appeal panel headed by former Bauchi State governor Mohammed Abubakar, however, said it found no substance in the petitions by aggrieved aspirants. Except the aggrieved pursue the legal option or gang up together to subvert the APC campaign as the PDP may experience in Edo, there may be no stopping Mr Aiyedatiwa in the November governorship poll. Will he make a great governor should he win? It is doubtful. What is more certain is that his judgement will not be sounder than it is poor already.

    And for Edo State, it is ironical that Mr Obaseki who campaigned for a second term on the basis of ‘Edo says no to godfatherism’ has done nothing since the past one year other than to act the godfather. He barred his former deputy, Philip Shaibu, from contesting, and then went ahead to virtually foist Mr Ighodalo on the PDP. Will he succeed in also foisting him on the state? This is even more difficult to determine. Notwithstanding these apprehensions, both Ondo and Edo elections will certainly stir up the emotions of voters and either raise, dampen or dash their hopes.     

  • Needless haggling over state police

    Needless haggling over state police

    Last Monday’s dialogue on state police organised by the House of Representatives in Abuja has turned out to be quite revelatory. Whereas most Nigerians seem in favour of decentralising policing, the police as an institution appear unenthusiastic. It is understandable. The enormous power they wield at the moment would most likely be lost or considerably attenuated if policing is devolved to the states. Many of those who attended the dialogue were, however, stupefied that Inspector General of Police Kayode Egbetokun chose that Monday dialogue forum to publicise his reservations. Represented by Assistant Inspector General of Police Ben Okolo, the IGP argued that the problem of the police was actually poor funding, which he enjoined the National Assembly to address. As proof that he misread the mood of the conference as well as downplayed public frustrations on the subject, the IGP inexplicably suggested more accretion of powers to the police by asking for the Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) and the Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Commission (NSCDC) to be merged as a department of the Nigeria Police Force. He was booed.

    The bill on state police, sponsored by Benjamin Kalu, deputy speaker, had passed second reading as far back as two months ago. Two former Nigerian head of state/president were at the dialogue and argued convincingly in favour of decentralisation. So did many traditional rulers and former IGPs. It is not clear who advised the IGP or what gave him the confidence that the public, already fed up with the police, might be amenable to a different perspective on the subject. But last Monday, Mr OKolo spoke for the police and suggested that “It is the submission of the leadership of the Nigeria Police Force that Nigeria is yet to mature and be ready for the establishment of state-controlled police.” But following a backlash, Mr Okolo, now turned into a scapegoat, tried to walk back his assertions at the dialogue. He said that he actually spoke for himself. His quoted statement suggests otherwise. It is unlikely that knowing which way the presidency was leaning Mr Okolo would go ahead to make statements not approved by the Nigeria Police leadership or Mr Egbetokun himself.

    The eventual decentralisation of the police may take a little longer than hoped, but despite opposition from some quarters, the constitutional amendment will be finalised and the police decentralised. Many of the speakers at the dialogue warned against, or feared, the abuse of police powers at the state level, but they did not feel strongly enough about any such potential abuse to abandon their support for the idea. Indeed, Sunday Ehindero, a former IGP himself, believed that withholding support for police decentrailsation may be a result of gross misreading of the bill before the National Assembly. He disclosed that he was initially opposed to the idea of decentralisation of the police until he read the bill, which according to him was not even as far-reaching as he thought. Did Mr Egbetokun and Mr OKolo read the bill at all? It is doubtful.

    Read Also: Dangers of establishing state police in Nigeria under current governance conditions

    For instance, the bill provides for the co-existence of a federal police with state police and, curiously, that no state police commissioner could be appointed from among the serving members of the state police by a governor without the approval of the Federal Police Service Commission. Yet, each state, according to the bill, has a State Police Service Commission before which a police commissioner could bring his disagreements with the governor. In addition the bill also provides that a police commissioner could not be removed without the recommendation of the Federal Police Service Commission, rather than the recommendation of the State Police Service Commission. As a matter of fact, the idea of state police has been considerably weakened by some of these contradictory and attenuating provisions, which hopefully would be reworked before the bill is passed. Had Mr Egbetokun studied the bill and made informed and highly impactful suggestions to strengthen it and perhaps even hedge it, he would have been applauded. Instead, he was left with egg on his face at the dialogue, while his representative had the undignified job of claiming responsibility for a poorly thought-out opposition to an idea whose time has evidently come.

    Messrs Egbetokun and Okolo have a poor comprehension of democracy, particularly the concept of federalism.  Yet, both officers ought not to be seen as lionising centralisation when every democracy is advocating devolution. Decades of stultifying centralisation have weakened the country, distorted federalism, endangered democracy, and made the Police Force seemed powerless, inefficient and even incompetent. Instead of giving states more responsibilities for policing, the nation has been unwittingly ceding more policing powers to the military in nearly all the states without a corresponding reduction in insecurity. In effect, the country has become less policed and more insecure.

    Mr Okolo may have publicly walked back the Police Force views on police decentralisation, but he has not been convincing. Mr Egbetokun knows the danger of openly opposing the administration, especially on a subject that has received wide support. He should go ahead and study the bill once more, assuming he had done it before, and see whether he cannot appreciate the matter beyond himself and his tenure. Then he must learn to speak convincingly about the future of policing in a federation, for the status quo is obviously unworkable.

    Women Affairs minister and controversy

    It is not clear where Women Affairs and Social Development minister, Uju Kennedy-Ohanenye, got her power to shut down the Lead British International School in Abuja over the bullying case involving some female students. Immediately the matter was posted on social media, the minister dived into the controversy and shut the school for three days until the matter should be investigated and possibly resolved. Shutting down any school in Abuja is supposed to be that of the Education ministry or the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). But Mrs Kennedy-Ohanenye is no stranger to controversy and impulsive action and statements.

    Last September, she redefined sexual harassment in the University of Calabar case involving Cyril Ndifon, a Law professor and former dean, who is being tried for alleged sexual harassment of students. She was forced by a coalition of 500 women’s rights group to apologise. Last October, she also threatened to sue the United Nations for not properly accounting for the monies sourced from donors for Nigeria. Of course she had no locus. Then in February 2024, she admonished women to shut up when arguing with their husbands if the case was not to degenerate into violence. The ministry could defend the wife, but could not replace a lost eye, she said sarcastically.

    Mrs Kennedy-Ohanenye is clearly instinctive and impetuous. She will keep leaping from one controversy to another if no one restrains her. But in the absence of the hilarious Dame Patience Jonathan, it is probably a great idea to have this Women Affairs minister in the cabinet to give the country comic relief and relive stressed ministers bent over by the tedium of their tasks. Hopefully, the president can put her on a gentle leash lest she traipse over her boundaries. 

  • EFCC versus celebrities

    EFCC versus celebrities

    The jailing of cross-dresser Idris Okuneye, aka Bobrisky, appears to have been a win-win situation for both the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the offender. The anti-graft agency got its conviction with minimal effort, and the cross-dresser took a six-month jail term for naira abuse rather than have the agency poking its anti-money laundering nose into his fairly substantial deposits. To all intents and purposes, Bobrisky was, or agreed to be, railroaded into jail. Everything seemed to have been negotiated. For the EFCC, the Bobrisky naira abuse case was a cause célèbre, essentially because the sentencing dispensed with the option of fine. Having pleaded guilty and saved the EFCC time and money in prosecution, everybody expected him to get a slap on the wrist, a conviction that would allow him to pay fine and walk home a free man.

    It is not clear whether the Lagos State Inland Revenue Service (LIRS) will investigate the cross-dresser’s finances, particularly his bank statements unearthed by the EFCC, and call him to account. But for the anti-graft agency, prosecuting Mr Okuneye for money laundering would probably be double jeopardy if the task is undertaken sometime in the future. In the initial six-count charge filed against Mr OKuneye, the EFCC was to pin him down over the payment of some N127.7m and another N53m into the account of his company, Bob Express, between 2021 and 2024. Eventually, the agency tried him for naira abuse, forswore the money laundering charge, and after he probably panicked and pleaded guilty, the court jailed him for six months.

    The conviction, not to say the unexpected sentencing without an option of fine, is a double-edged sword for the EFCC. A few short weeks after picking up Mr Okuneye for interrogation and successfully prosecuting him, the anti-graft agency has also picked up Pascal Okechukwu, aka Cubana chief priest, a socialite, for the same offence. The video of how he turned money spraying into a virtuoso art had gone viral and left the EFCC with no choice but to invite him. Even though the agency had explained that February 2024 was the cut-off date for those who committed the infraction to attract the hammer, it was nevertheless inundated with videos mostly of celebrities having fun at the expense of the naira and even dollars. To ignore the ‘helpful tips’ would open the EFCC to allegations of bias and selective prosecution, particularly of the most insidious variety. Already, there are insinuations that the EFCC targeted Mr Okuneye for his cross-dressing peccadillo rather than naira abuse. However, taking cognisance of the videos and acting on them could also expose the agency to allegations of persecution of celebrities; for clearly, naira spraying had become a sport for the rich and famous.

    Read Also: EFCC investigates 11 suspected oil thieves in Lagos

    More importantly, by prosecuting Mr Okuneye and jailing him without an option of fine, the EFCC will have an uphill battle getting a plea bargain from any subsequent naira abuse suspect. It was not surprising that the second celebrity hauled into the anti-graft agency’s net adamantly refused to plead guilty and get a predictably short trial. Mr Okechukwu is both defiant and unimpressed with the EFCC’s charges. His lawyers may have told him that the grounds of the indictment against him can be successfully challenged. Spraying naira, they have probably told him, does not amount to abuse, mutilation or defacement. In any case, after Mr Okuneye pleaded guilty, it did not save him from a six-month jail term. So, why not fight the charges to its logical end? For, after all, a jail term is probably the best and worst option for anyone who pleads guilty or not guilty. Henceforth, EFCC can bank on offenders refusing to take the guilty plea, while unending supply of ‘helpful’ video tips and consequent prosecution risk turning the agency into a circus.

    While the anti-graft agency could not ignore the tips when they come, and had indeed tried to limit the number of cases to be prosecuted, it simply has to find a more ingenious way of walking back its earlier determination to deal firmly with the vice of naira abuse. The agency did well to prosecute Mr Okuneye and do it cheaply, but the more videos sent to the agency, the deeper the snare EFCC finds itself. It is an unprofitable venture open to a lot of interpretations and booby traps. The initial euphoria is dying down very quickly after the first prosecution. No wonder the Central Bank of Nigeria and law enforcement agencies had been disinclined to arrest and prosecute offenders. They showed little interest. They suspected it could quickly become a circus. Yet, the vice could not be left unattended to. It was necessary to do something; but what the EFCC has eventually chosen to do now seems nugatory. The government should, however, not give up; they have a responsibility of finding a nearly perfect way of handling the issue. One way is to amend Section 21 (1) of the CBN Act, 2007 and remove the jail term option and substitute it with a fine of say, N10m, adjusted for inflation as time goes on. That should rein in the naira spraying madness. Putting Mr Okuneye in jail is one more mouth for wearied Nigerian taxpayers to feed, and one controversial and difficult cross-dresser to maintain.

  • Aisha Yesufu’s fulminations

    Aisha Yesufu’s fulminations

    She rode on the back of the #BringBackOurGirls campaign to some public renown. It was of course a worthy cause, a cause that sadly remains an unfinished business, with more than 90 of the 276 Chibok, Borno State, schoolgirls abducted in 2014 unaccounted for. Aisha Yesufu, human rights warrior and co-convener of the campaign, joined other activists in Abuja to pressure the federal government into bringing the abducted girls back home. A few of the campaigners later secured public appointments, while those who remained, including Mrs Yesufu, were thought to be principled and too committed to the abduction cause to afford political distractions. She was overhyped.

    Read Also: Why many marriages, relationships fail – Aisha Yesufu

    The last election cycle exposed the grime under Mrs Yesufu’s human rights activism. She is as political as they come, a revelation underscored by her superfluous embrace of Peter Obi and the Labour Party. She was in fact the head of the Obi presidential campaign fundraising team, and at various times conducted herself as Mr Obi’s spokesperson, often deploying vitriolic words against opponents. She is proud that she is not politically neutral. But the months and years ahead will determine whether her chiding of reason was a smart move. She may not be the only opinionated activist and politician in the country, but hers takes the biscuit.

  • Exasperated Peter Obi ponders LP exit

    Exasperated Peter Obi ponders LP exit

    Labour Party’s candidate in the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi, enjoys fanatical following. But that fanaticism, to his immense satisfaction, is largely personal and not transferable to anyone or party. The Director General of the Obi-Datti Presidential Campaign Organisation in the 2023 elections, Akin Osuntokun, confirmed that unquestioning support in March when he declared in respect of the controversial March 23, 2024 LP national convention that nothing would be left of the party should Mr Obi and his Obidient supporters take their leave. Mr Obi knows where he stands in the party, and the centrality of his membership. LP leaders, especially Julius Abure who on March 27 contrived his re-election as party chairman at the national convention held in Nnewi, Anambra State, also know that without Mr Obi, the party would be grasping air. Worse, the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), which insisted it founded the party and had the uncirumscribed right to do with it as it pleased, knows that Mr Obi was their Godsend to relieve them of their ordinariness and save them from death throes in 2023.

    As this column predicted weeks ago, and continued to emphasise, Mr Obi has no stomach for an injurious intraparty fight, and no acumen for running one, let alone founding a party. Critics suggested that this writer was prejudiced, if not bigoted, and unfair to the ‘unimpeachable’ LP presidential candidate. The more this writer was assailed by critics, the more he enthusiastically swore that Mr Obi would soon show his true colour. In the event, his unravelling took place in a few dizzying weeks, instead of a few dramatic years. But as usual, Mr Obi tried his obfuscatory best to disguise his inability to withstand stress and endure pain. Last week, he finally made oblique reference to the most important subject matter unnerving the troubled LP – the party’s national convention and its aftermath. He said tersely: “I am still a member of the Labour Party and I don’t and will never engage in anti-party activities…I’m a Christian. Jesus said, when you go into a city, try to change them, live with them, fast with them. In the end, if you can’t, come out and even wash the sand that is on your shoes. He didn’t say go there and die with them. I tell you, I’m making spirited efforts to change them (LP), but I’m not going to die with them. That will not stop what we set out to do. We will try to change them (LP), if we can’t, we will leave them; we will not die with them.”

    Ignore Mr Obi’s repeated resort to religious identification, and his reiteration of his party membership. His heart is obviously no longer with the LP; it has left. His affections are now set on probably another party or person, or, God be praised, on a future coalition. He never looked like he would remain in the LP for too long, for unlike his fanatical supporters incapable of reading the weather, Mr Obi knew that he could not deploy the same ethnic and religious arguments he used to bamboozle the electorate in the last election cycle. Shorn of the casuistry he was so fond of all his life, and deprived of the political ecology that suited his divisive campaign tactics, he was already wondering how hurtful it would be to remain stuck in LP. Now the divisions within that implausible party, especially its division into three ungainly factions, have strengthened his instinct for political flirtations. The beleaguered Mr Abure may have cunningly reserved the LP presidential ticket for Mr Obi, but the 2023 LP presidential candidate is smart enough to know that if he remained in the LP he would not flourish, and also knows that his chances of even going into the next poll as a presidential candidate is slim.

    Read Also: Ndume condemns electricity tariff hike

    What is beyond dispute today is that Mr Obi will leave LP in the near future. He had the opportunity to intervene firmly in the LP crisis, but he showed no inclination whatsoever. Had he possessed the political skill to forge a consensus, he would probably have brought the LP combatants to the negotiating table and hammered out a peace deal. He did nothing of the kind. Perhaps, being a practical man, rather than an ideological leader, he knew that it was a hopeless case trying to restructure the relationship between the NLC and LP. A little success had knocked the NLC and LP leaders sideways and weakened the bonds that bound them together. More success, such as winning a presidential contest, would provoke seismic changes in the party that no one, let alone the combative and salivating leaders of the foremost trade union, could manage.

    For Mr Obi, better to let bad enough alone. He knows the NLC men very well, and he knows that there can be no mollifying their anger and bitterness. And he also knows the bedraggled LP leaders well enough to tell that it would take something far more incendiary than the NLC breaking down the gates and smashing the windows of the party headquarters building to remove their snouts from the largess tantalising the union leaders and party apparatchiks. More importantly, he knows that even if peace were restored, the union and the party would soon be at each other’s throat on some ominous tomorrow. And coupled with his own disinterestedness in restoring normality in the party or imbuing it with a raison d’être, it is all but clear that staying put in the party and inheriting and fighting its amorphous cause would amount to tilting at windmills. Mr Obi may be a trader or anything anyone may ascribe to him, but at least he does not fancy himself a Don Quixote. That is why he can say with unrivalled satisfaction that he was ‘making spirited efforts to change the LP, but would not die with them’, seeing that he is neither a Quixote nor a martyr.

  • Crazy electricity tariffs

    Crazy electricity tariffs

    Last week, the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) approved a 240 percent increase in electricity tariffs for electricity distribution companies, otherwise known as DISCOs, to charge their elite or Band ‘A’ consumers. Instead of the previous tariff of N66 per kilowatt hour, the elite consumers, presumed to be incapable of resisting the punishment, will now pay N225KW/h for receiving up to 20 hours of electricity supply per day. The objective is to reduce this year’s electricity subsidy by about N1.14trn and enable DISCOs to pay for gas and maintain their machines.

    Read Also: Army dismisses allegation of bias in trial of soldiers

    There is of course something to be said for discriminatory pricing, like fair tax payments. But to do it in such a way as to punish the poor for unavailable electricity supply and also punish the rich for the inefficiencies of the DISCOs is truly galling. So, rather than move in the direction of general 24 hours per day supply, NERC’s message is that both the poor and the rich should be punished for the inability of the transmission and distribution companies to stabilise power supply. In short, NERC has focused inelegantly and narrow-mindedly on the theory of pricing without a corresponding consideration of the implications of such price increases on the economy at a time of stagnating wages, high inflation, low production outputs, and general frustrations. The timing is wrong, and the policy irrational. Could they not rather stabilise power supply and find the right time to proportionally raise tariffs across the various segment of electricity consumers?

  • Abure’s LP boxes itself into a corner

    Abure’s LP boxes itself into a corner

    The embattled LP chairman, Julius Abure, is a lawyer who presumably knows the constitution and has mastered the Electoral Act, 2022. It is not clear why in his brutal and sanguinary battle against the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), which claims ownership of the Labour Party (LP) and wants to act and play as a single bloc vote in the party, he failed to appreciate the need to get the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) monitor or observe last week’s LP Convention. After INEC disavowed LP’s convention, not to talk of the absence of former presidential candidate of the party Peter Obi, Mr Abure’s hold on the party has become considerably weakened. He had been affirmed by voice vote as the new party chairman at the Nnewi, Anambra State, convention, considering that many LP members were sick and tired of the obtrusion of the NLC in party affairs and the cantankerousness of the NLC president Joe Ajaero.

    Read Also: LP returns Abure, reserves 2027 presidential ticket for Obi

    No one can tell whether the Lamidi Apapa/Abayomi Arabambi faction will join forces with the Abure faction to fight Mr Ajaero. If they do, they will stand a chance of at least stalemating the party for some time to come. If they fight separately, they may die separately, for despite their pretensions, they lack the pugnacity of Mr Ajaero and the temerity of the NLC. Now, Mr Obi has an even better reason to sit on the fence, being assured of the 2027 presidential ticket from the two camps. He will sit gingerly on the fence as the party gradually mummifies before the next elections, for no reconciliation in the party stands the chance of delivering lasting peace.

  • Rivers seethes with intrigues

    Rivers seethes with intrigues

    When political combatants fight in Rivers State, they do not take prisoners. They are unyielding, remorseless and immoderate. Governor Siminalayi Fubara was barely six months in office when his simmering disagreement with his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, blew into open conflict. Twice the fight between the two politicians had recrudesced, and twice it seemed to have been resolved or at least stalemated. Interventions by Rivers State elders and the presidency, it was believed, would help the two gentlemen maintain peace. But given the events of the past one week, it is now clear that the feuding politicians will fight to the finish. Mr Wike is full of regrets for backing his untested protégé, and Mr Fubara is full of defiance. The former governor, who is now Federal Capital Territory (FCT) minister, openly deplored ingratitude, saying he hated that vice with a passion, while the governor said he unreservedly loathed dictatorship. In short, Mr Fubara is an ingrate, and Mr Wike a dictator; the former a self-styled protector of political ethics, and the latter a self-styled liberator.

    For the next one year or more, Rivers politics will be pockmarked by the conflict between the governor and his predecessor. The fight will be bitter, divisive and certain to put the state in dreadful unease. Last week’s verbal missiles between the two men showed why. First to draw blood was the FCT minister. Mocking the governor’s contradictions, he said: “You (Fubara) said State Assembly people should not be independent, but you want to be independent. Continue to be independent. Continue to save the democracy of Nigeria. If they like, let them do as they’re doing; if they get to any court they have in the state, let them continue. Let them continue. We’ll never be intimidated by that. So let nobody be afraid. Every day, they say they’re doing thanksgiving. They were lucky they didn’t show this early. When we’ve finished winning for them, from polling units to tribunal, from tribunal to court of appeal, they now came saying we want to remove them at Supreme Court. Can you imagine?”

    It didn’t take long for the governor to respond. Having benefited in recent weeks from defections from Mr Wike’s camp, such as House of Representatives member Boniface Emerengwa, Mr Fubara seized the opportunity of the formal presentation of Certificate of Recognition and Staff of Office to the Amanyanabo of Okochiri Kingdom, Ateke Tom, as a first-class tradition ruler last week, the governor provocatively declared: “We are at a crossroads in our state where we all need to stand for what is right. It happens once in a lifetime. So, for now, be one of those people who will be in the cause to liberate and free our dear state…We will do those things that are right to develop our state. We will continue to consult. We will not act as dictators. We will act as people who know that one day, we will leave, and when we leave, the way we have acted will speak for us. We will not force people to talk good about us…”

    The battle lines are now firmly and finally drawn and swords and the Rubicon crossed. There will henceforth be no let-up. Both will fight like Kilkenny cats, and neither will give any quarter to the enemy. It is no longer a political disagreement; it is war. Could this misunderstanding have been better managed? Absolutely yes. Once the presidency intervened, it became incumbent on Mr Wike to moderate his expectations, especially having won the image battle. Mr Fubara had made the capital mistake of enabling the demolition of the state’s legislative building, a feat former Edo State governor Adams Oshiomhole and current Edo governor Godwin Obaseki had managed to achieve in a modified form in Benin years ago. That singular act, rather than the substance of his quarrel with Mr Wike, lost him a huge support. He was, therefore, eager to recompense the error, including abnegating his political belief and seizing every opportunity to laud President Bola Tinubu. Instead, still breathing revenge and all sorts of imprecates, Mr Wike pressed the advantage beyond acceptable bounds, and ended up either uniting key political players behind the bumbling Mr Fubara or driving some of his (Wike’s) supporters to the fence. From all indications, the governor will welcome more defectors like Hon. Emerengwa, perhaps in droves, with some of them festooning their moves with scathing remarks against the former governor.

    Read Also: Rivers Assembly renews threat to impeach Fubara

    As exemplified by former Rivers State People’s Democratic Party (PDP) presidential campaign council in the 2023 general elections late last week, some of the defectors are beginning to look beyond the immediate to the next election cycle in 2027. Said the former campaign council, which aligned with ex-vice president Atiku Abubakar faction of the PDP in the last polls: “We will return our governor in 2027. Mr Fubara will control the structure of our party 100 percent. The governor is the leader of the party in the state.” The council is probably reaping from where it had not sown, but this sentiment will grow in the weeks ahead, and Mr Wike will be left flummoxed. After the presidential intervention, Mr Wike should have bided his time, moved his pawns on the political chessboard, and waited in ambush for 2027. Instead, he continued to vituperate openly, unfortunately framed himself as a dictator convinced that his moral high ground would win him hearts, expiate his authoritarian approach to politics, and reclaim the fickle Rivers electorate to his side. It won’t happen. When the war with Fubara started, Mr Wike’s chances of emerging victorious were a decent 50 percent. Now, after his intransigence, not to say the inevitable deployment of state resources, Mr Fubara’s chances are brighter than 50 percent.

  • El-Rufai’s burdens

    El-Rufai’s burdens

    After the senate rejected his nomination as minister last year, former Kaduna State governor Nasir el-Rufai instantly became a goldfish in a pond. Whatever he said or did since then acquired new and sometimes far-fetched political meaning. There were speculations regarding his senate rejection, with most unconfirmed, but he probably knows why. If he has gone beyond that rejection and who or what was behind it, the next one year or so will tell. But meanwhile, his Ramadan breaking of fast with the National Security Adviser (NSA) Nuhu Ribadu, Kashim Ibrahim-Imam, an All Progressives Congress (APC) chieftain, and Shehu Musa Gabam, Social Democratic Party national chairman, among many at his Abuja home last Tuesday has given fresh impetus to political speculations concerning him and 2027. He can’t avoid the rumours, nor does he seem to care. More, he probably enjoys how the rumours conspire to sustain and even advance his political relevance.

    The newspapers which published stories of his Ramadan interactions with the high and mighty would give anything to have an insight into what Mallam el-Rufai discussed with his guests. Surely it couldn’t be all about Ramadan, notwithstanding the spiritual lessons the Ramadan iftar practice confers on devotees. In the heyday of the military in government, coup plotting was believed by some observers to be catalysed by pepper soup kitchens. Analysts have probably extrapolated the breaking of fast practice to transcend religion, perhaps politics in particular, much more than business. When Mallam el-Rufai hosted Mallam Ribadu and others, he did not intend it as a cloak and dagger affair. Reacting to an attempt to forbid photographers from uploading the visits and interactions, he blurted out that he didn’t care what was done with the photographs.

    Mallam el-Rufai hosting Mallam Ribadu was nothing strange, going by their long-standing friendship. Until he hosted the SDP chairman, Alhaji Gabam, few Nigerians, particularly in the agitated and apprehensive South, knew that the two politicians had been friends for a long time. Indeed, after the Tuesday hosting, Mallam el-Rufai proceeded to return Mallam Gabam’s visit, and was received by his host and members of the SDP national working committee, thus heightening speculations. However, it will probably take a little longer to know exactly what the politicians discussed, whether it related, as some speculate, to Mallam el-Rufai’s integration into the government at one level or the other, or whether it concerned 2027, as many rumour-mongers appear convinced.

    But for Alhaji Gabam, the el-Rufai visit “…is a welcome development (indicating) that concerned Nigerians are cross-fertilizing ideas on how to salvage the nation’s present unpleasant socio-economic challenges of the times. The prevailing circumstances call for bipartisan and robust collaborations that transcend ethnic and religious lines to address the nation’s woes and find sustainable ways to redeem the situation.” This may be a loaded and probably incontrovertible proof that politics in one way or another was at the centre of their discussions. However, for Muyiwa Adekeye, the former governor’s media adviser, “People have personal histories and relationships that predate political affiliations. It cannot be a hallmark of civilization to have friends from within only your political party. When people visit each other or mingle across party lines, it is because human relationships exist, distinct from the political or the partisan.” Mr Adekeye is obviously more reticent than Alhaji Gabam.

    What can, however, not be disproved is that since the rejection of his ministerial nomination, Mallam el-Rufai has become generally more assertive, a little more bellicose and acerbic, and as usual idiosyncratically restless. His wheeling and dealing, as those close to him know, is almost wholly without principles and consideration for the feelings of his mentors or mentees. Indeed, nothing, not ethnicity, nor religion, nor class, nor political divide discomfits him or constitutes a dissuasive factor in his unique brand of politics. He seemed a pillar of support for then aspirant and later presidential candidate Bola Tinubu, but his detractors insinuated that he was also running with the hare and hunting with the hounds as well as flirting with a lot of political permutations. They acknowledged it was within his rights to engage in political cavorting, but concluded cynically that his political capriciousness matched his legendary Machiavellianism. They also note that since his senate rejection, he has engaged with a few notable political rejects given the cold shoulder by the Tinubu administration. He was flighty before the general election, and after just one little setback and rejection, he has again demonstrated his characteristic impatience. They wonder whether, despite his enormous gifts as a politician and orator, he is really dependable.

    Whether anyone likes it or not, and in spite of himself, Mallam el-Rufai will be talked about in earnest in the coming months. Though irreverent and highly opinionated, he is too brimful of ideas to be restrained by circumstances or animosities. Whether by rumours or incontestable facts, he will be the subject of many discussions and debates. He has a huge capacity for defending both sides of a good or bad coin, and is straight-faced and straitlaced about his defences. His admirers would, however, wish he was capable of bringing his limitless endowments to the cause of a greater or ideological principle. They would wish he could take temporary setbacks with the perfect equanimity he sometimes displayed as Kaduna State governor in his jousting with those who accused him of ethnic and religious prejudices.

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    Lifting the Kaduna siege

    Few Nigerians would disagree that bandits are laying siege to Kaduna State. Between January and March, more than 400 hundred people have been abducted for ransom in the state, particularly from Chikun, Igabi, Kauru, Kajuru, and Kachia local government areas, among others. The siege did not start yesterday; it has lasted for years without any adequate and tactically superior response. The crisis preoccupied the former governor, Nasir el-Rufai, who famously advocated for saturation bombing of the bandits. From all indications, the siege will also preoccupy the current governor, Uba Sani, who has been jolted wide awake by the sheer scale and audacity of the March 7, 2024 Kuriga LEA Primary School, Chikun LGA, abductions where more than 280 pupils were estimated to have been taken, leaving security agencies flatfooted and flabbergasted.

    There has been no initiative to lift the siege; none whatsoever. The governor supports state policing, and would probably have used state police effectively to checkmate the devilry suffocating his state, had the country been restructured already. But for now the constitution disallows him from running a state police, and he must wait almost eternally for the rest of the country to come round to the idea of law enforcement devolution. As for the federal government, the country is perhaps too vast for its security network to cope with. It could not spread a dragnet for the ubiquitous bandits because of the scale of logistics needed to execute that measure, and has thus been condemned to only reactive measures to salvage whatever is left of its pride as federal authority. So far, the feds have disavowed lockdowns, yet troops in Delta State are believed to be rigorously executing that measure over the killing of 17 officers and soldiers on March 14. Governor Sani will be wondering whether anyone is really interested in destroying and defeating the bandits. Nigerians wonder too.