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Category: Sunday

Tinubu unsurprisingly wins again

No one who read the final written addresses of the three main political parties contesting the Nigerian presidency in the courts expected President Bola Tinubu to lose. Ex-vice president Atiku Abubakar‘s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and ex-governor Peter Obi’s Labour Party (LP) had dragged the president before the Presidential Election Petition Court (PEPC) even before the last ballot was cast, insisting the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) should not have declared him president. The reason, they argued was not so much because of insufficient ballots cast in favour of the declared winner but essentially because of ancillary matters like the APC nomination process or a forfeiture case long ago in the United States. And just in case they could get any takers, or the country could be bewitched, the litigants also threw in the farfetched issue of 25 percent Federal Capital Territory (FCT) votes as a prerequisite for victory in the presidential election.

Five justices of the Court of Appeal sat over the consolidated cases and last week gutsily – some said angrily – and unanimously threw away the last legal and political pretensions of the opposition. They let it be known once and for all time that the judiciary would not be intimidated. The petitioners didn’t stand a chance, going by the provisions of the law, but they clutched at all kinds of straws, most of them wafer thin, leaving their fumbling counsels and fanatical supporters puzzled. Few legal experts who listened to or read the presentations of the opposition thought they had any chance of winning. Some supporters, many of them artisans and laymen on the streets, thought otherwise; but their thoughts stood precariously on pins and needles, on nothing but wishes. Sensing that their supporters were undifferentiating, both PDP and LP candidates in the February 25 presidential election appealed to their emotions, declaiming upon the special status of FCT residents, and exaggerating and obfuscating irrelevant court processes in the United States. In the end, all their arguments counted for nothing. Worse, the three parties left standing in the suit against the APC were made to share a fine approximating N84m.

President Tinubu is a very fortunate man. The more the cases against him dragged on, the more strengthened his legal position became, and the more he smelled of roses. In an essentially three-horse race, he won about 37 percent of the votes, a fact some analysts have turned into an argument about legitimacy. But at the PEPC, he won unanimously. Even before the opposition got copies of the judgement, they had, however, signified their readiness to appeal. They will also lose at the Supreme Court, of course. It was not just that the PEPC did a thorough job, it was mainly because both the PDP and the LP, which had previously united under one umbrella but split into three for the fateful election, had nothing significant to rest their cases on or redeem their postulations. No legal expert who knew his onions thought the PDP or LP could win, or that, bowing to the blackmail and intimidation of the opposition, the PEPC could be browbeaten into ordering a rerun. If the president’s luck is sustained, not only will the opposition lose at the Supreme Court, the fines could be bigger than N84m.

Read Also:Tinubu, Biden, G20 leaders condemn terrorism, money laundering

In reality, however, Nigeria’s opposition leaders in the PDP and LP are not idiots. They knew they didn’t stand a chance in the election, having been unable to unite going into the poll, and especially when the conspiracy at the highest echelons of government which the PDP had hoped to take advantage of fizzled out badly. They are not stupid to think that by some liberal constitutional interpretations FCT residents could be turned into supermen and bionic women in whose tremulous hands veto power over the rest of the country would be invested. No, they are much smarter than their howling supporters, and in fact secretly held out no hope of a miracle. They embarked on legal adventurism for two principal reasons: to create a groundswell of anger and bitterness against the winner in order to incite the public into either a preemptive revolution or a coup d’etat; or to slow down and weaken the new administration into backing away from implementing courageous and redemptive policies or inquiring into the monumental misdeeds of past administrations. Neither of the two objectives will, however, be realised, regardless of how hard they try.

Apart from being unanimous, the PEPC was emphatic in their judgement. They have left the opposition with no legs to stand on going to the Supreme Court. The PDP and LP know as a matter of fact that they have nothing left to stand on or any straw to clutch at, and even fear that they will be skewered or completely disemboweled for their irrational attempt at intimidating the justices, nay the judiciary as a whole, for ridiculing the justices and their families, and for rousing public anger against them. They feel the amperage of the portents that lie ahead. But they are also seized by a forlorn gloominess that the fire of revolution they had labored so tediously to procure might finally be lit by a fortuitous and careless matchstick. In addition, they have a number of angry past leaders, disaffected politicians, baleful clerics, and opinion moulders to count on. But here again, their exertions are unlikely to be rewarded, for they misread history very badly and are woeful incompetents at reading the signs of the times.

For about two years before the then aspirant Tinubu won the APC presidential primary, the ruling party, beginning from June 2020, had erected a barricade of such enormity and fierceness against him that few gave him any chance of surmounting. Five years before, the party had also ostracised him, attempted to build a new power elite in the Southwest to supplant his influence, and rallied many of his mentees and friends and associates against him. And when EndSARS came in late 2020, despite beginning as a protest against federal police atrocities, it was also weaponised against him. The house of politics he built seemed to be caving in on him. How he roused himself from his prostrate position to take the battle to his enemies remains a puzzle. What is, however, known is that one after the other he dismantled his enemies, put together a coalition of old friends and new associates, and finally devised political strategies that left his opponents and estranged mentees gasping for breath. After these, heaven simply and brusquely took over. There is no other explanation for the implacable divisions within the PDP, the half-heartedness of the presidency in following through their plots against him, and the failure of all the economic and financial chicaneries which punished the entire nation than it undid him.

Since 2015 when he joined forces with others to secure victory for the APC, President Tinubu had not been defeated in any political combat. Last week’s judicial victory is, therefore, an icing on the cake. In the same manner many clerical and political leaders saw the hand of God in the successful evacuation of about 338,000 beaten and bruised allied soldiers from the beaches and harbour of Dunkirk during World War II, many clerics and perceptive analysts now see the hand of God in the 2023 Nigerian elections. They do not conclude that President Tinubu’s victory in all his political battles in the past years is a testimony of his strategic brilliance or ideational infallibility; no, instead, like many great statesmen have appreciated throughout all history, they now sense the hand of forces in their affairs which they cannot rationally explain. Indeed, if the PEPC had last week ordered a rerun, and the PDP and LP had joined forces, they would again be surprised to go down in defeat against all rational permutations and projections. The unseen hand was so pervasive in the 2023 Nigerian elections that any opposition was certain to end up disoriented and spent.

A few more predictions need to be ventured. The PDP and LP conspiracy to delegitimise the Tinubu presidency will continue until and a little after the Supreme Court deals them a mortal blow. But the conspiracy will eventually amount to nothing. The revolution and coups they have tried so disingenuously to incite will also amount to nothing. The Tinubu presidency has admittedly started on a disconcertingly awkward note despite propounding fine policies and assembling a fairly decent team; but in the months ahead, he will settle down to better administrative and even ideological and policy rhythms. The international environment will probably work in his favour and give great impetus to his programmes and policies, and the economy will function at far better capacity and fluidity than previously hoped. His opponents will not only be consistently wrong-footed, they will gradually fade in prominence and acclaim, including Alhaji Atiku, Mr Obi, ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo, Bode George and other assemblage of expired and ambitious politicians and opinion leaders. These things will inevitably open the door to the recreation of better organised and more ideological political parties and a more scientific administration which the largest black nation on earth will be confident to talk about. All in all, despite President Tinubu’s knack for winning political battles, it appears that the extreme detestation of his many enemies may be designed to keep him from exalting himself above measure, almost like a thorn in the flesh to keep him fettered or hamstrung.

September 10, 2023
Yar’Adua: Obasanjo still seems befuddled

In an interview with The Cable online last week, ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo reiterated his conviction that he was blameless on the allegation of foisting an enfeebled successor on Nigeria in 2007. In 2021, he had spoken with The Nation even more sanctimoniously on the same vexed subject. No one is sure why the point seems lost on him that what he did in selecting and foisting the then Katsina State governor, the late Umaru Yar’Adua, on both the party and country as he departed office was wholly improper. It has been about 16 years since that fateful decision. His reluctance to reflect on what he did, not to say his determination to sustain the twisted logic of imposition, strikes at the root of his flawed persona and the cracked prism from which he views Nigeria and the rest of the world. Luckily for him, it is not criminal to make a wrong choice or decision; but what he did more than 16 years ago in fiddling with the choice of a successor changed the trajectory of Nigeria and led the country down a thorny path from which it is yet to recover. He is unlikely to feel any remorse as he continues to believe and promote his infallibility.

It is uncertain that anyone else could have done what Chief Obasanjo did in 2007, let alone double down on the issue, speak glibly about it, and continue to justify the anomaly. As he put it: “I set up a committee headed by Dr Olusegun Agagu, of blessed memory, to search for a successor. They considered many names and did an extensive assessment of all them. They made their recommendation. Umaru was top on the list. Their biggest argument in his favour was that he had integrity and would not steal. The issues concerning his health were raised and I gave his medical reports to an expert for an opinion. Umaru’s name was redacted so that the expert would not know who it was and why I was seeking his opinion. After assessing the reports, he said the patient appeared to have done a kidney transplant and if that was the case, there was nothing to worry about and he would be as healthy as any other person. That was it. All insinuations that I knew he was going to die and that was why I supported him to be president were false. This is the true story I have told you.”

Read Also: Obasanjo decries pervasive corruption in Nigerian politics

Three things were infernally wrong with his perspective on succession. Firstly, he claimed to have sent ex-president Yar’Adua’s medical record to Professor Olu Akinkugbe, who advised that even with the subject’s kidney transplant, he could still withstand the rigours of the presidency. But it is doubtful whether the eminent professor knew he was being asked to give an opinion on someone being considered for the demanding office of president, especially as the former president claimed to have redacted the subject. The former president quoted Prof Akinkugbe as saying that anyone with a successful kidney transplant was like someone who never had a transplant. Well, its Chief Obasanjo’s word against the professor’s. It is unlikely that if the former president had not withheld information on the identity of the subject, Prof Akinkugbe would have given the late president a clean bill of health.

Secondly, and more exasperatingly, anyone old enough to tell the difference in 2007 knew enough to condemn Chief Obasanjo for riding roughshod over the constitution by backing and foisting ex-president Yar’Adua on both party and country. It was of course okay to back anyone he chose, but if he was sensitive to the burden history placed on his shoulders to lay a solid foundation for the Fourth Republic, he would have been more circumspect. Instead, during the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) primary, he openly bullied other contestants to drop their ambitions. In addition, during the main presidential election, he also bullied the rest of the country into submission, leading the eventual ‘winner’ to concede he was a product of a flawed election. Chief Obasanjo had contempt for his party, a party he eventually left prostrate and led to ruin, and he also sneered at the country and the electorate whom he presented a fait accompli.

Thirdly, and perhaps most damagingly, Chief Obasanjo’s intransigent view of the political succession he awkwardly engineered in 2007 continues to illustrate his inability to appreciate the basic essentials of leadership. Not only is he poor at grasping and exuding leadership fundamentals, he also proves more wearily incapable of identifying that quality in any other person. It requires depth, knowledge and intuition to know who has capacity for leadership. But by not possessing that quality himself, it was inescapable he failed to identify a great leader and successor even if one was rudely thrust under his nose. His personal and leadership failings, his disrespect for party and national constitutions, and his poor judgement mixed in a fatal broth with narcissism caused him to propel the country into a cul de sac in 2007. It is not baffling that he still thinks himself infallible and the rest of the country fallible. What really baffles anyone is why he still continues to declaim self-righteously on national politics and political succession, and still gets a hearing.

September 10, 2023
Sights and sounds of PEPC judgement

The about 12 hours it took to deliver the Presidential Election Petition Court’s decision on the suits filed by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP), and the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) against the victory of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the February 25 presidential election should rightly define the judgement’s fame. Instead, other sights and sounds of the September 6 judgement have seemed to dominate the airwaves. Among them were the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) warning strike of September 5 and 6, PDP chieftain Bode George’s preemptive verbal strike against the court verdict, ex-governor Kayode Fayemi’s belated epiphany on what constitutes electoral victory, and Justice Mary Peter-Odili’s controversial admonition against party supporters’ fanaticism.

In the end, the APC’s Bola Tinubu won the case, retained the presidency, and cost the opposition over N80m awarded as costs against the three petitioners, Atiku Abubakar, a former vice president, Peter Obi, a former Anambra governor, and Chichi Ojei of the APM. The APM candidate called only one witness, the LP 13, and the PDP 27. How they believed with their few witnesses and incompetent arguments they could win their petitions left everybody dumbfounded. The justices breezed through the APM petition, dwelt substantially on the LP case, and finally landed with a thud on the PDP petition, this time, inured to time as it were, leaving petitioners, counsels and other busybodies soundly asleep. It was an uproarious time in court last Wednesday.

Here are some of the sights and sounds. The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), whose brainchild the LP is, ordered a two-day warning strike ostensibly to ground the country in protest against the federal government’s dilly-dallying over how to meliorate the harshness of its economic policies on workers and the poor. In reality, however, and given the unholy connection between the union and the LP, the strike was widely seen as a ploy to indirectly pressure the justices into ordering election rerun. Not only was the strike poorly observed, especially with the less politicised Trade Union Congress (TUC) disavowing the subterranean tactic, it had little or no effect on both the country and the justices, who had by then become clearly incensed by the bullying and irritating tactics of a section of the political public.

Read Also: PEPC: Judgment validates Tinubu’s earlier victory-Uzodinma

As if by coordination, Bode George, a PDP chieftain and former military governor, also weighed in on the pre-judgement politics of the season. His dilatoriness had of course become legendary, given how he took oath to go into exile should the then APC presidential aspirant Bola Tinubu become the president, an oath he quickly and remorselessly abjured when it became inconvenient. His volubility had also become unquenchable, but perhaps now bettered only by Edo State governor Godwin Obaseki’s petulant and superficial contribution to national discourse. Last Monday, Chief George warned the election court justices not to declare any of the contestants to the presidency winner of the poll, but to instead order a rerun. It would be injustice to give victory to President Tinubu, he growled. What evidence did he give or speak to? None. He only spoke from his distant and intangible approximations, given his long-lasting animosity towards President Tinubu, and knowing full well that neither Alhaji Atiku nor Mr Obi could prove their cases.

And there was the sound of fury of former Ekiti State governor, Dr Fayemi. Discarding his progressive credentials, ignoring constitutional provisions, and sneering at past relationship with the president, Dr Fayemi, a day before the PEPC read its judgement, began questioning the rationale of declaring a candidate who scored about 35 percent president. It was an indirect reference to President Tinubu who scored about 37 percent. The politics of the former Ekiti governor is actually not as complicated or amoral as many people think. It is far worse, and its rubric quite unsavoury. He will be numbered among opposition politicians in the foreseeable future if he is not accommodated in the administration. The wonder is not how he sometimes disavows his friends, helpers and mentors; the miracle is how he combines reactionary and progressive politics, and how incredibly he makes both look like progressivism.

The vacillations of Pat Utomi, an LP chieftain, constituted another mesmerising sight and sound of the PEPC judgement. Shortly before the judgement was delivered, and in line with the inciting rhetoric he and the LP, together with many others around the country, had deployed to whip up hatred against Nigeria, Prof Utomi lied in a tweet that many politicians and judges were fleeing the country to avoid judgement day apocalypse. There was no iota of truth in the statement, but he made it anyway. His reputation, supposedly built over decades, was flimsy at best; now it has been demolished on the altar of LP and ethnic politics.

Unfortunately, it was in the midst of the muckraking that preceded the PEPC judgement that Justice Odili made a harmless remark warning against ‘fanning the embers of hatred’ or trying to burn the country because of electoral setbacks. She had also advised that politicians refrain from ‘bringing the roof down’ over everybody. For this, she was pilloried in unprintable terms, and accused of directing her statements at LP and PDP candidates. It was clear that except one sounded like the dilatory Chief George or the Machiavellian Dr Fayemi in the service of delegitimising the presidential election, any other point of view was to be denounced. But regardless, the PEPC gave its judgement last Wednesday, affirmed the February poll, and damned the consequences. The heavens have not fallen, obviously.

September 10, 2023
Two sides of a judgement coin

After a draining and soporific 12-hour judgement by the PEPC last Wednesday, during which lawyers and the public battled to stay awake, Nigeria is no less divided after the 2023 presidential poll than they were before the poll. After examining in detail the evidence presented before the PEPC, one side has concluded that the judgement is excellent, impregnable, thorough and irrefutable. They base their conclusions not only on what the justices said, or on their erudition, but on the final written addresses by the counsels to the petitioners and the respondents. The other side, naturally and incorrigibly sceptical, insists that the judgement was procured and flawed. They refuse to take cognisance of the written addresses of the petitioners, and, sounding lawyerly and magisterial, scoffed at the arguments and logic of the justices. For them, since their candidates did not win, there was no jurisprudential logic to be admired.

Read Also: Tinubu/Shettima: Yahaya applauds PEPC’s verdict

There are suggestions the petitioners will be heading to the Supreme Court, obviously after paying the fines levied on them, some N84m in all. Should they go ahead as they have sworn, they hope it will afford them the opportunity to continue sullying the image of the president, certainly not to affect the substance or direction of the case. The verdict will of course not change, but so too their determination to cause a lot of reputational damage to the president, the country and its institutions, up to the point of wishing the system to collapse. Even after the apex court has had its say, the PDP and LP will sustain their attacks and excesses until their pastime become unbearably costly.

September 10, 2023
Captain Jagaban and the $14 billion FDI shipment

The last week, for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, came with its unique features, from beginning to the end: full of activities, mostly visible, mostly offshore. It was the week he showed the world that Nigeria, under his watch, indeed means business, rhetoric aside, and practically showed Nigerians they are on the cusp of igniting the innate greatness of their homeland.

Like indicated earlier, it was a very busy week for the President, more so when he had to fly almost 12 hours to cover the 7560 kilometers between Abuja and the capital of India, New Delhi, to kill many birds with one stone. Coincidentally, this all important trip happened at a time of great anxiety, excitement and batted breath. During the week, the Presidential Election Petition Court delivered its judgment and you can only imagine what that particular event meant for him.

Of all that transpired through the week, most of which happened offshore, the deliverables from the Indian venture have been tipped as the most impactful, both for the President and Nigeria. Being a shrewd resources manager, Asiwaju would not confine his activities to just the G20 Leaders’ Summit, which was the primary reason for the visit, he ensured to explore the six-day foray to pluck strategic economic fruits for the country, through an array of meetings, during which agreements and Memoranda of Understanding were signed.

To show his seriousness about intensifying his administration’s drive to shop for foreign direct investments (FDI) to shore up the economy and create real living employments for Nigerians, President Tinubu pulled some of his ministers, who will play key roles in actualizing his targets, along; Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Yusuf Tuggar; Minister of Finance and the Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun; Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Alhaji Atiku Bagudu; Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, Dr Bosun Tijani and the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr Doris Uzoka-Anite, were his missiles deployed at sealing deals.

He also had the company of the governors of Kwara, Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq, who is the Chairman of the Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF), and the governor of Ogun State, Mr Dapo Abiodun, whose state is one of the most industrialized in the country, to take part in some of the deals.

Starting from the night of his arrival on Tuesday, President Tinubu had hardly arrived his lodgings at the Le Meridien in New Delhi, when the first business meeting got underway. The Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Hinduja Group of Companies, a conglomerate with a total asset portfolios exceeding $100 billion, Mr Prakash Hinduja, was already waiting in line to discuss business with the leader of the largest economy in Africa.

Read Also: Tinubu, Biden, G20 leaders condemn terrorism, money laundering

Then on Wednesday, the President chaired a Presidential Roundtable and Business Conference, which was jointly put together by the Nigerian High Commission in India, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and the Nigerian Indian Business Council (NIBC). At the event, which gathered more than twenty Indian global businessmen and more than thirty Nigerian international business men and women, the President was able to garner agreements, MoUs and investment promises amounting to about $14 billion.

Indorama, which already has a magnificent presence in Nigeria told the President it would be investing and additional $8 billion to expand its business in the country. Jindal Steel and Power Limited, one of India’s largest private steel producers, said it would bring $3 billion into the Nigerian economy. SkipperSeil Limited is bringing $1.6 billion to invest into the power generation subsector in the next four years, and so on.

Achieving this in just one outing, especially at the very beginning of his tenure is a good sign for Nigeria’s economy and an indicator to the capacity of the person Nigerians have entrusted with leadership, according to Bolaji Lawal, an agro-business investor, who has a background in Banking and Economics.

“President Tinubu has left no one in doubt that he is a strategic thinker, however as President he is proving to be a strategic worker. Tinubu is setting Nigeria up for prosperity within a trip to India that lasts only a few days. He has secured investments valued at about $14 billion from Indian business men and entities. The big deal is not the investment per se, but the strategic nature of the industries targeted.

“The President and his team secured a $3 billion commitment to invest in Nigeria’s Iron Ore and Steel Development industry. This, in my opinion, is the most strategic achievement of the Indian trip because this is where Nigeria has underperformed the most, despite the overwhelming importance of this industry to the country’s economic development.

“It must be noted that there is no country on the planet today that achieved success in its industrialization program that doesn’t have a robust steel industry, even though it may not meet local demand a 100% at times. But Nigeria is lucky, we have resources that enable us to meet local demand and become a net exporter of iron and steel materials and products.

“The iron and steel industry, when fully developed, has the capacity to create 2 million direct and indirect jobs. The impact of this on the economy of Nigeria is multi-dimensional and cannot be overemphasized”, Lawal said.

Then the meeting with the Nigerian community in India on Thursday evening was a heart-to-heart engagement, where the President spoke to his the people about being good ambassadors of the country where they sojourn. Then when the permitted window for stay expires, he admonished they should not become nuisances, he said “don’t wait to be criminalised. Come back home if cannot renew your visa”

Before addressing them on the plans for the country and for the people in the Diaspora, Asiwaju had to apologize for arriving late, then raised then he opened up

Jagaban doesn’t joke with friends and family (A snippet from his human angle)

The President still keeps his ‘down-to-earth’ character, notwithstanding the office he now occupies. For instance, there’s this protocol of security details usually struggling to keep a certain line of doing things for VIPs and preventing casual contacts with whoever has not been ‘cleared’ to pop up. But Baba will not be restrained, especially when he feels strongly about the correctness of getting something done or reaching out to some people. One of such occasions presented itself in Delhi.

After the Presidential Roundtable and Business Conference with Nigerian and Indian captains of industry, and he was to be ushered out, the security details will usually make way for him by ensuring a clear path, removing everything and everyone, no matter the calibre, from the way. Of course, everyone had moved back and ensured a clear path. However, the President was intended on paying respect to a particular participant in the room with whom he has kept a long time relationship.

“I need to greet Chief Okoya before leaving the room”, the President said and was about moving towards the right side of the room where Nigerian businessmen and women were all standing in gesture of respect for him as he left the room. At that same instance, his gaze fell on another figure on the left hand side of the room, who was standing in the crowd, genuflecting in respectful greeting for him. “Oh, Wale you are here as well?”. It was Mr Wale Tinubu, the Chief Executive Officer of Oando Oil, who also happens to be his nephew. From there on, they both went towards Chief Razaq Okoya, the Founder of the Eleganza Group, a well respected business mogul and a father figure for most Lagosians.

The week also saw victory for the President at the Presidential Election Petition Court (PEPC) on Wednesday. Many legal luminaries had from the onset predicted a home run for the President in the legal tussle as, in their opinions, the petitions filed by the opposition parties and their candidates; People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and its candidate, Atiku Abubakar, the Labour Party (LP) and its candidate, Peter Obi, as well as the Allied People’s Movement (APM), were hollow and needless in the first place.

Meanwhile, before he left the country on Monday, en route India, he held a meeting with the Minister of Defense, Abubakar Badaru, the Minister of State, Bello Matawalle, the Chief of Defense Staff, General Christopher Musa, and the service chiefs. He also granted audience to the Global Vice President of the computer software company, Oracle, Mr Andres Garcia Arroyo, with whom he discussed his administration’s plans to deploy technology to sanitize public expenditure. Jagaban sees no reason a deadbeat and bloated public service system should take so much resources to the detriment of required public infrastructure.

As he will be returning to the country from India tomorrow, the nation will have to take the time to savour the sweetness of the brewing stability and progress.

September 10, 2023
Why won’t VP Atiku Abubakar just quietly sing his political nunc dimittis and go home?

“Lord, now lettest thou thy servant depart in peace…” – Luke 2:29

Everything considered, VP Atiku Abubakar is a titan of the Nigerian political landscape. A revered, indeed, highly regarded elderstateman, he has been a a political colossus like for ages – actually since the 90’s and has done everything humanly possible to be President of Nigeria, except win it, having been contesting for the numero uno position since 1992 – a clear 31 years.

He served creditably as Vice- President under the rambunctious President Olusegun Obasanjo (1999 – 2007) who, rather than appreciate his services, chose, together with his Boys, the likes of Nasir El Rufai, and Femi Fani – Kayode to fling him right under the bus. In deed, to safeguard his political life, Atiku had to fight the boisterous Obasanjo all the way to the Supreme court.

But not even the judicial elixir extended to him by the apex court would exculpate him from a fussilade of further attacks on his person by his one time boss who went ahead to expose, in his book, – MY WATCH, Atiku’s alleged corrupt acts for which a US Congressional hearing would later find him guilty of corruptly funneling millions of dollars to the accounts of his US- based wife.

Not done, Atiku would later be linked with the embezzlement of funds earmarked for the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF).

If the above are eons ago, not so Atikugate – the revelation, shortly before the 2023 Presidential elections by Michael Achimugu, his former media aide – giving details of how Atiku claimed to have used phony companies called ‘Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs)” to receive bribes, and divert public funds when he was Vice President.

All these, together with his serial electoral losses should, ordinarily earn VP Atiku all the sympathy he so richly deserved.

Read Also: EFCC, ICPC to respond in Keyamo’s suit against Atiku Abubakar

Unfortunately, he did not help himself. Below is how two former state governors described VP Atiku:

Katsina State governor, Aminu Bello Masari, sees the former Vice President as a rolling stone that would never gather moss, adding that “his penchant for running from one party to another smacks of desperation which would make it very hard for him to ever win a presidential election in Nigeria”.

On his part, Donald Duke, former Cross River State governor, said:”Atiku has been contesting for Presidency since 1992. In fact, since 1992 there is no presidential election he did not participate in. In 2007, he contest, in 2011 he ran after he came back to PDP. In 2015 he ran, also in 2019 he ran and 2023 he wants to run. Haba, is it only you.”

In contradistinction to Atiku, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu who governor Rotimi Akeredolu once described as “a leader of leaders, and a living legend”, has demonstrated nothing but patience and equanimity, helping others grow politically, rather than hankering after the presidency every election cycle.

The Immediate past Vice President Professor Yemi Osinbajo gave credence to this fact in 2021 when he said that “there is no Nigerian leader who has been as instrumental in raising other leaders as Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu”. “What is responsible for this phenomenon, he went on, is Asiwaju’s lead ership style, which is unusual”; stressing that Tinubu ”constantly refines his thoughts, and is never afraid of having his subordinates scrutinise his ideas”. He added: “Ashiwaju is completely comfortable engaging across different ethnic, religious and partisan divides”.

It was essentially this difference in their approach to life, and especially to politics, which made all the difference in the 2023 Presidential election.

While Atiku, through his selfishness, split the PDP into four, the entire APC Northern Governors’ Forum, impressed by Tinubu’s politics, stood ramrod behind him and ensured that he emerged the APC presidential candidate. They showed the same steadfastness when the Villa Mafia showed their hands in Emefiele’s currency redesign plot which they successfully fought to a standstill through the courts.

Thus, through Atiku’s overarching pride and selfishness, he destroyed his party’s chances in the election, thereby applying the final nail to his own political coffin.

Unfortunately, rather than quietly sing his political NUNC DIMITTIS, he is all over the place gallivanting from pillar to post, chasing after Tinubu’s academic records; the same man who sheltered him in the ACN where he contested the presidential election when, in 2007 Obasanjo banished him to political Siberia.

First to the PETC in Abuja he went, and as soon as proceedings wound down at the tribunal, to the US he headed, shamelessly shopping for courts to grant him that which only he, and his lawyer, can decipher.

Represented by his lead counsel, Chris Uche, SAN, and able to call only 27 of his promised 100 witnesses, Atiku closed his case on Friday 23 June, 2023.

Below are the grounds of his petition:

That the presidential election court either declares him the winner of the 25 February election or nullify the election and order a rerun.

That Tinubu was “not duly elected by a majority of lawful votes cast, and therefore the president-elect’s victory “is unlawful, wrongful, unconstitutional…null and void.”

That Tinubu was, at the time of the election, not qualified to contest the said election.

“That it be determined that the return of the 2nd Respondent (Tinubu) by the 1st respondent (INEC) was wrongful, unlawful, undue, null and void having not satisfied the requirements of the Electoral Act and constitution…which mandatorily requires” Mr Tinubu “to score not less than one quarter (25%) of the lawful votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the states in the federal and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.”

That the court declares him the presidential election winner, as he “scored the majority of lawful votes cast at the presidential election.

That in the alternative, the court makes an “order directing” INEC “to conduct a second election (run-off) between” him and Tinubu.

“That the election to the office of the President of Nigeria held on 25 February 2023 be nullified, and a fresh election be ordered,”

Because of its sensitive nature, this article will restrict itself to only the rebuttal by the INEC’s counsel, Abubakar Mahmoud, SAN.

Replying to Atiku’s petition, he told the court “that Atiku “failed to discharge the burden placed on him by law” in proving his allegations against the conduct of the election”.

He argued “that Atiku’s case centred on alleged “non-compliance with the electoral act and INEC guidelines and regulations” which the petitioner did not substantiate”. He asserted that the deployment of the Bimodal Voters Accreditation System machines and INEC Results Viewing (IReV) for the presidential election was “successful.”

Continueing, he said:”The evidence (before the court) showed that these innovations around accreditation and authentication were successful and the information generated by BVAS were stored on the Amazon Web Services (AWS)”.”The evidence before court, he went on, showed that AWS is the secure and reliable Amazon services across the world,” and concluded that Atiku’s claim that the IReV portal was compromised by INEC in favour of Tinubu was an egregious fallacy”.

Apparently seeing the futility of his petition at the PEPC, and perhaps, momentarily forgetting that he still has a recourse to the Supreme court, rushed to the US, long after proceedings have ended and judgment being awaited, thus going on an unnecessary fishing expedition, trying to close the stable door long after the horse has bolted.

After being shut down by one US court, he rushed to another. He has now been shown that America is not a country where he can play games with the courts.

I have some questions for candidate Atiku as he continues his search not minding whether he goes to the South or the North Pole

In all his 77 years( born 25 November 1946) could Mr Atiku, at any point in time, have been appointed Treasurer of Mobil Oil Nigeria?

What does he think qualified Tinubu for that executive position in a reputable international oil company?

Working in Nigerian Customs?

No, it is education, and not an emergency one, rushed during the 6th or 7th decade of his life but in his youth.

Our dear one time Vice President, who I personally rever, should please, for posterity, quietly retire to eitherJada or Dubai..

LAST WORD

Some Obidients, just as they recently did, overwhelming with insults, the one and only Dr Ngozi Okonjo – Iweala, the highly regarded Director – General of the World Trade Organisation, their sister and about the very best to come from amongst them after she visited PresidentTinubu – these world renowned scammers – have been sending insulting texts/ tweets to the authorities of Chicago state University, cheekily asking to be sold fake certificates, as if they are not the real authorities in all manner of fakeries – fake drugs, fake spare parts, fake everything.

September 3, 2023
Gabon coup is godsend

It does not just rain coups, it pours. Gabon in Central Africa is the latest victim as military officers executed a provocative palace coup last week in a crazy baiting of frustrated regional and continental bodies inching to intervene and displace coupists rampaging through West and Central Africa. With Gabon, it is now more unlikely than ever that ECOWAS will invade Niger Republic to restore the deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. French meddlesomeness in Niger and other Francophone countries has virtually made it impossible for ECOWAS to unhorse Abdourahamane Tchiani, the new military head of state of Niger. Last week, Niger Republic gave French ambassador 48 hours to leave Niamey. The ambassador remains adamant, and France, embarrassed by its loss of influence over its former colonies, is threatening reprisal. Had ECOWAS invaded Niger Republic in the name of restoring democracy and, even more nobly, preventing the coup fever from spreading around Africa, France, not democracy, would have been the first and major beneficiary.

Niger Republic is slipping from the grip of France – after Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso had fallen to the sway and swagger of coupists ostensibly revolting against France’s iniquitous entrenchment of remorseless neocolonial rule. The insensitive and self-righteous statement it issued to counter Niger Republic’s order expelling the French ambassador shows the contempt it has for its former colony. But for French help, said Emmanuel Macron last week, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger Republic would no longer exist as nations. He made the statement in reference to the jihadi insurgency that has constituted existential threats to French-speaking West Africa. Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu was smart enough to quickly sense the contradictions playing out in Francophone West Africa and the sinister and constraining influence which the former colonies seemed prepared to fight. It is okay to get ECOWAS united as a body to protect and defend democracy and prevent the spread of dictatorships across the region, but President Tinubu may just be starting to recognise that politics and international relations across the region may be far more complex and nuanced than they appear on the surface. Indeed, he must already be ruminating over ways of reconceptualising ECOWAS. The regional organisation is tired, decrepit and ideologically ossified.

Read Also: Gabon Coup: A threat to sustainability of democratic tendencies in Africa

The Gabon coup – now dubbed a family affair by the sneering Gabonese opposition – probably plotted to steal the thunder of the main opposition party still contesting its electoral loss in the August 26 election, simply reinforces the ignoble motives behind most of the coups that have ravaged the continent. Those coups were hardly carried out because of bad governance, let alone to dethrone the peacock overlordship of France. Sudan’s coup was a product of power struggle. Chad’s was to help Mahamat Deby Itno, son of the assassinated Idriss Deby Itno, retain power in the family. Mali engaged in a merry-go-round with political leaders before it cut to the chase and decided to simply keep the coveted prize. Despite Russia’s help executed through Wagner mercenary group, the insurgency in Mali is nowhere near ending. Burkina Faso’s coupists could not resist the lure of power. (See Box) After all, they were the ones deployed in the war front to fight jihadi insurgency. They have not invoked new methods or urgency into the fight. Nor have they, together with Mali and Guinea, inspired revolutionary political leadership.

For President Tinubu, the farcical coup in Gabon is godsend. Together with the rest of coup-free ECOWAS, he is right to be worried about the spread of dictatorship. Central Africa, going by the extra attention paid to military postings in Rwanda and other countries, is also worried. But for the Nigerian president, the option of military intervention, from which he has gently walked away in the past few weeks when he sensed his countrymen’s disapproval of war, is no longer on the table. Of course he will insist that all options are on the table. However, the reality is that with the help of the African Union (AU), sanctions and other non-military options will now be applied with vigour to curb the military madness coursing through the continent. Gabon is godsend also because it helps President Tinubu reflect on his hitherto rosy understanding of what Nigeria is and what it represents. Now he knows he is not presiding over a country which, in line with his campaign before the elections, could be forged into a single, powerful voice for the continent. Nigeria has many voices; the president must henceforth do his best to coax (and sometimes cajole) a general tendency out of those voices as he represents his country to the rest of the world. Nigeria has religious and cultural differences; how to manage those differences at a time of severe economic and global challenges will keep him preoccupied. His success in that endeavour will of course not be total, but if his reflexes and deftness for building consensus have not deserted him, he will achieve enough success to build a fairly stable and progressive country. And if his successors build on that hypothetical success, the country will see many more epochs until it finally succumbs to the inevitable forces of history.

But France is desperate to keep its former colonies in the French orbit. It is, however, unlikely to succeed to a level that will assure it of the effortless dominance it had overweeningly entrenched for decades. Gabon all but made it certain that Nigeria will not get embroiled in a struggle it cannot win in Niger Republic, nor get in the way of the ongoing denudation of French influence all over West Africa. Surely it must mean something that apart from Sudan, all the countries that have executed coups so far in West and Central Africa are Francophone. France is peevishly spoiling for war in Niger, with its resistance to the expulsion of its ambassador; it is now clearly the responsibility of the AU, not just ECOWAS, to compel France to respect the sovereignty of Niger Republic, coup or no coup. France is sending a bad signal and setting a dangerous precedent by defying the sovereignty of Niger Republic and the expulsion order. It must not be allowed. The complications France seems desperately prepared to infuse into the coup fray in Africa because of its economic interests are indeed ominous. But even if it succeeds in the short run, it cannot win in the long run.

By now the chief proponents of forcefully restoring Mr Bazoum to office must have lost steam, if not interest. With Gabon flaunting its own ridiculous coup in everyone’s face, it is hard to imagine sending the military into Niger Republic without Central Africa or the rest of Africa lashing out at Gabon. What is more, should they succeed, the continental policemen must then proceed to Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso. It is a futile exercise, for interventions will not resolve the economic and political contradictions that have kept coup-ridden Francophone countries poor and blighted for decades.

September 3, 2023
Governors, UNDP and Rwandan retreat

It was at first thought that the three-day retreat organised for Nigerian governors in Kigali, Rwanda, last week was a needless junket. That supposition raised a national din. Then it later emerged that the trip, attended by some 19 governors, was in fact bankrolled by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Oh, well, notwithstanding, said the murmurers, it was humiliating shipping so many governors overseas when they could easily learn from top development experts and political scientists in abundant supply in Nigeria. Head or tail, the governors couldn’t win.

However, among other things and facilitators, shipped from Nigeria and elsewhere, it was established that the governors actually went to understudy the Rwandese experience that indicated the transformation of that tiny Central African country of 14 million people into an inspiring haven of development and stability. After the retreat organised to help Nigerian governors re-imagine leadership and leverage technology, the 19 men agreed that effective leadership was in high demand in Africa. They may be right. What they are unlikely to have understood, however, is that leadership has its own chemistry, probably a genetic side too, which a leader must intrinsically possess to be effective, imaginative, and charismatic. If a leader does not have it, he does not have it, as they say in Nigeria. It can’ be learnt in a retreat or a classroom. Ruling millions of people is not the same as running a company, no matter how large and successful.

Read Also: Nigerian governors commend UNDP, others over Rwandan training

Did the junketing governors pay any attention to the durability and future stability of the Rwandan example they had gone to understudy? Apart from the unhealthily long stay of President Paul Kagame in office since year 2000, not to say the lack of discernible political recruitment system incorporating all ethnic groups, including the majority Hutu, it remains to be seen how the post-Kagame period would look like. Here, a comparison with the post-Josip Broz Tito’s Yugoslavian experience is relevant. President Tito gingerly cobbled together an artificial federation that quickly unraveled barely a decade after he died in office in 1980, having ruled for 27 years. It is instructive that a few days after the retreat, and in light of the coup in Gabon, Mr Kagame quickly shuffled his military and sacked more than a thousand officers, including 12 generals.

Funding and locating the retreat in Kigali is hardly the problem, contrary to the noise many Nigerian analysts and patriots made. The far bigger issue is determining the factors that produce and shape great leaders, be they governors or presidents. A cursory look at Nigerian history paints a dismal picture as far as producing great leaders is concerned. For instance, eight years of the Obasanjo presidency ended in chaotic, debilitative succession; and eight years of the Buhari presidency nearly ended anticlimactically, thereby indicating poverty of thoughts. Sorry to prick the balloons of the 19 travelling governors, but they don’t teach or learn the complex chemistry and metaphysics of political leadership in retreats. That is why great leaders are rare and exceptional, and are in high demand everywhere, not only in Africa.

September 3, 2023
Abdulsalami and Jonathan on African coups

After watching some West and Central African countries bewitched by coups in recent months, particularly with the Niger Republic putsch making coup d’etat even sexy, former head of state Abubakar Abdulsalami and ex-president Goodluck Jonathan have become cognoscenti at deterring coups. Both leaders isolate three key factors predisposing the continent to coups: bad governance, imposition of successors, and sit-tight leaders. The two former presidents have seemed to acquire in recent years some experience at negotiating with military leaders to relinquish power. So far, they have met with little or no success.

In an interview with BBC Hausa Service, General Abubakar explained why he thought coup had become sexy. Said he: “The first factor for increasing military intervention in democratic governance in West Africa has to do with the credibility of electoral process and political leaders. Political leaders take people for granted. Many political leaders have changed the constitutions and electoral laws of their country to extend their stay in office. Another major factor is forcing leaders on the people against their will. This is very bad. Also, the soldiers connive with politicians to successfully execute coup for whatever benefit.”

It is not clear how much thought he had given to his observation. Military leaders themselves, as the general knows from experience, hardly kept their word on handover dates, as they constantly extended their stay in office, whether in Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea or Chad. If military dictators did not learn from their predecessors’ folly, why expect elected leaders to be above suspicion, like Caesar’s wife? In fact, some of these military leaders simply transmuted into elected presidents, and then, like Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni, engaged in constant pirouettes of extension. Former president Olusegun Obasanjo, despite his denial, was in the process of tenure elongation when he was checkmated. Clearly, some other bigger and deeper factors are at play. Gen Abubakar also talked about imposition, presumably through electoral fraud. The great democratic archetype, the United States of America (USA), has been convulsed a few times with electoral controversies seismic enough to provoke a coup elsewhere. Myanmar and Thailand do not even need a disputed election to carry out a coup.

Read Also: Reps Minority caucus warn against use of force to restore democracy in Niger, Gabon

Dr Jonathan’s analysis was not too far removed from Gen Abuabakar’s. In a recent outing, he spoke about the centrality of the rule of law as a cardinal principle for political stability. Citing the example of Burkina Faso, he talked about how watchful civil society had become so active in many African countries to the foolish point of helping to incite a coup. The Burkinabes, he recalled, forced their president out, and because they distrusted their parliament, they also drove away the Speaker who was constitutionally placed to succeed the fleeing president. The military stepped in. But it was the same Burkina Faso that had a nasty experience under Blaise Compaore who stayed in office for 17 years. Clearly the Burkinabes didn’t learn any lesson. Then they deposed their elected president in January 2022, and the coup leader was himself deposed eight months later by another officer. Mali on the other hand has entertained ECOWAS with a game of musical chairs between civilian and military leaders, further aggravating poverty and compromising the war against jihadism. What is indisputable is that military and civilian leaders, emerging from the same pool of leadership, are unable to provide the kind of leadership both Gen Abubakar and Dr Jonathan imagined. Some other reasons explain Africa’s proclivity for coups.

China easily negates both Gen Abubakar’s and Dr Jonathan’s thesis. Between 1978 and 2022, China provided for a maximum of two terms of five years each for its presidents. But in 2018, with Xi Jinping barely a year into his second term, the Chinese parliament, the National People’s Congress, by a vote of 2,958 in favour, two opposed, and three abstaining, amended the constitution to allow the president serve an unlimited number of five-year terms. In March 2023, Mr Xi got a third term, despite being 70 years old against the background of a constitution that had provided for anyone above 68 years old to step down. There has been no coup. Meanwhile, China is a one-party democracy. So, too, is Russia. The spread of coups in Africa may have become a nightmare, but it speaks to far more troubling issues about the continent than the simplistic and popular analyses offered by Nigeria’s former leaders and other theorists. ECOWAS had believed that if it drew and militarily enforced a red line in the sand, without examining the predisposing factors, military adventurers would be discouraged. In light of the principle of sovereignty, military invasion has proved a chimera too difficult for regional leaders to rein in without recourse to continental support.

September 3, 2023
Despicable petitions against PEPC justices

On the surface, the petition written by the Coalition of Concerned Nigerians (CCN), and signed by about a measly 100 people as at Thursday, is an altruistic attempt to ensure justice in the suits filed before the Presidential Election Petition Court (PEPC) by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP). The coalition seemed dedicated to the cause of democracy, and is anxious to promote justice. But the content of the petition, which its leaders claimed had been signed by some 100 people, reveals that their commitment to democracy and justice is tenuous, if not superfluous. Whether the coalition recognises that assailing the eminent justices with petitions and innuendos is capable of eroding rather than reinforcing justice is not clear. What is, however, clear is that their petition aligns with other actions taken by opposition forces to pressure the judiciary, discompose the judges, and in the end probably truncate the cause of justice they claim to be advancing.

The opening paragraph of the petition addressed to the lead judge, Justice Haruna Tsammani, manages to sustain feigned neutrality for a few sentences. “We, the Coalition of Concerned Nigerians (CCN), write to you today with a deep sense of responsibility and a firm belief in the sanctity of justice,” the petition begins grandiosely. “As the lead Judge of the esteemed panel of Judges entrusted with the critical task of adjudicating the 2023 presidential election petition, we implore you to honour and strictly abide by the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, to which you have all solemnly sworn allegiance…Nigeria stands at a watershed at this moment, where citizens from all corners of our diverse nation have united to safeguard our democracy through free, fair, and credible elections. We trust in your wisdom and impartiality to recognise the gravity of this moment.”

Read Also:JUST IN: PEPC to deliver judgment in Obi’s petition

But in the very next paragraph, all pretences are off. The coalition writes: “It is crucial to note that invited and accredited election observers, such as the European Union (EU) mission, have presented detailed reports highlighting numerous aberrations before, during and after the elections. These reports, along with other substantial evidence, have been diligently presented before this tribunal. We beseech you to consider these vital pieces of evidence and apply the law with the utmost objectivity and fairness. The judiciary holds the sacred responsibility of being the last hope of the common man. Nigerians at home and abroad anxiously look forward to you for justice in this unprecedented and distinct election.” It is only the PDP and LP, especially the latter, that set much store by the reports of the few EU observers. The opposition had also given far more publicity to the EU reports than its evidentiary value was worth. And to suggest that the EU reports, together with other ‘substantial evidence’, had been ‘diligently presented’ before the court is to stretch legal fabrication to its inane limit. Clearly the CCN’s second paragraph insinuates very distressingly that the EU reports are ‘vital pieces of evidence’ deserving of the application of the law ‘with the utmost objectivity and fairness’. Obviously, in the estimation of the coalition, any other outcome other than the one it secretly nurses will not be objective or fair.

But not satisfied trying the case out of court and disreputably assigning weights to the evidence before the court, the CCN goes on to issue threats against the justices, probably not aware of just how close it is sailing near the wind of insurrection and incitement. According to the coalition, and still addressing the court and the lead judge: “Your decisions will profoundly impact the course of our nation’s future. This is a golden opportunity for each of you to etch your names in the annals of Nigerian history by upholding the principles of justice and equity. In the words of Martin Luther King Jr., ‘Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.’ As guardians of justice, we implore you to recognise the profound importance of your role and the impact it has on our society as a whole. By delivering a just and unbiased verdict, you will not only uphold the principles of justice but also inspire faith and confidence in our judiciary…”

Even if the threats are ignored or downplayed, the question still remains: what in the eyes of the CCN amounts to ‘a just and unbiased verdict’, and in what ways would the judgement and the justices ‘uphold the principles of justice’? It is disheartening what partisanship is doing to reasoning and sense of community in the country. If the CCN is in Jos, and going by the metrics of the votes in Plateau State, it may be inferred that the coalition has probably been influenced by religious sentiments. But quite apart from whatever influences are driving and distorting the logic and vision of the CCN, it is shocking that the coalition and other LP and PDP sympathisers are not shaken by their unrestrained and subversive goal of pressuring and subverting the judiciary. They seem to recognise that their actions are unprecedented and unnatural; but they have a messianic and amoral goal to achieve, and they will stop at nothing to achieve it.

September 3, 2023