The Nation Newspaper

Category: Sunday

  • Northern Nigeria: Untameable and prospect of Nigeria achieving trillion dollar economy

    Northern Nigeria: Untameable and prospect of Nigeria achieving trillion dollar economy

    Northern Nigeria matters, but not just because of the reasons many Northern Nigerians think it matters. The region matters beyond arguments about land mass and controversial population statistics, but mainly because it is a foundational partner in the establishment of Nigeria as one country through the amalgamation of the Northern and Southern Protectorates in 1914.

    There is a big problem in the North today, and that problem also affects the overall pace of economic, social and political progress of Nigeria as a whole.

    We need to agree on what exactly that problem is because we can’t overcome an obstacle if we don’t understand clearly what it is, or if we know, but pretend not to know, or if we mischaracterise the problem and thus confuse ourselves  and the whole picture of poverty” – Professor Kingsley Moghalu, former Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria, in a ramifying, no holds- barred address he   delivered  at the Mallam Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital Conference Hall, Kano, June 2019.

    Titled:”Northern Nigeria’s Prosperity: Imperative of Social, Economic Transformation”,

     Moghalu held in the address that if Nigeria,with its 200M plus population, (as against India’s 1.5 Billion) is the poverty capital of the world, then Northern Nigeria is the poverty capital of Nigeria.

    He went on to situate the Nigerian poverty index as follows:

    “Northern Nigeria is the poverty capital of Nigeria, which makes the region the poverty capital of the world’s poverty capital. Comparative regional poverty rates in Nigeria, he went on  are: North-West: 80.9%, North-East: 76.8%, North-Central: 45.7%, giving a northern poverty average of 67.8%. Compare this with the southern regions: South-West: 19.3%, South-South: 25.2%, South-East: 27.4%, with a southern average of 24%. Northern Nigeria is nearly three times poorer than Southern Nigeria”.

    This parlous state of affairs has been further worsened by a multiplicity of problems. Among them: very poor education with over 10Million out of school children and an all- encompassing state of insecurity which, for more than a decade, has made lives short and bruttish for Nigerians living in those parts.

    Our task here then is to examine how all these will impact on the Tinubu government’s ambition to turn Nigeria into a one trillion Naira economy.

    As my good friend, and former Secretary of the Arewa Consultative Front (ACF), the erudite elderstatesman, Tony Sani, used to say, Nigeria is like a big river with all the other parts as mere tributaries – he often puts it more elegantly – so whatever touches one part touches the other.

    I say that to acknowledge the fact that the North does not have a monopoly of Nigeria’s developmental challenges.

    There fore, the prospect of Nigeria achieving a trillion dollar economy in the short run, seems like a distant dream, a mirage, given the myriad challenges plaguing the country. 

    Insecurity and unrestrained child-bearing in the  North, for instance, have far-reaching consequences that will continue to threaten the country’s economic stability and development.

    The region has been ravaged by insecurity for over a decade, with Boko Haram  being a major contributor to the crisis.

    The group’s activities have led to the displacement of millions of people, destruction of infrastructure, and loss of lives. This has  had a devastating impact on the region’s, ipso facto, Nigerian economy, with many businesses shutting down and investors reluctant to invest in the region.

    Unfortunately, insecurity there is not limited to Boko Haram’s insurgency. Banditry, kidnapping, and armed herdsmen have become common occurrences, further exacerbating the security situation. Government’s inability to definitively deal with this problem has led to widespread fear and mistrust making it almost impossible to achieve economic development.

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    All these have negatively impacted government’s sustained efforts at improving the general well- being of the citizenry.

    Unrestrained child-bearing is another existential challenge confronting the North. The region has one of the highest population growth rates in the world, with women in rural areas giving birth to an average of 5.6 children, compared to 3.9 children in urban areas.

    This rapid population growth puts a strain on the country’s resources, especially: healthcare, education, and infrastructural development.

    This state of affairs is attributed to various factors; among them, poverty, lack of access to family planning  as well as cultural norms, topmost of which is religion.

    This has resulted in a significant increase in the number of out of school children, with young girls of school age being forced into early marriage and motherhood.

    Insecurity and lack of family planning have led to many schools  being closed down with the pupils being forced to consequently  drop out of school.

    This is further accentuated by poverty and lack of access to educational resources. These, in turn, resort in limited economic opportunities, increased poverty, and a perpetuation of the cycle of violence, to break which, education is a sine qua non.

    For these reasons, and especially to break the cycle of poverty and insecurity, both government and the other stakeholders must wake up and prioritise education in the region.

    Worse is that all these negativities have combined to upend economic activity in the country.

    One area very badly affected is agriculture – a  source of livelihood for the greater majority of Nigerians. This has very negatively impacted food security in the entire country with prices of foodstuffs, where available at all, becoming unduly astronomical.

    Indeed, farmers are routinely being killed or kidnapped either on their way to the farm or right there on their farms. Benue, Plateau and Borno states have suffered the most in this respect.

    Like it or not, Nigeria is obliged to find a solution to all these, predominantly,  Northern conundrum, if it is to survive, economically, at all, not to talk of achieving a trillion dollar economy.

    The problems require a multifaceted approach that should include reforms in the country’s security architecture, ditto education, as well as instituting deliberate economic reforms that will encourage small and medium enterprises, thousands of which can be created in the North particularly in agro- processing and animal husbandry.  Government must frontally confront, and defeat, illegal mining in the region, and elsewhere else in the country given how foreigners involved have worsened our internal security, using helicopters to drop, food, arms and munitions to terrorists on ground.

    For this reason too, government, at all levels, must prioritise security in the region.

    This should include  adequate funding as well as increasing the use of technology as a means of not only combating insecurity, but seriously implementing policies that will address its root causes  as well as the sympathy these evil elements seem to enjoy from some people in the region either for ethnic or religious reasons.

    Investing in education is equally crucial, even critical, to enhance human capital development.

    Finally, government, at all levels, must endeavour to provide access to credit, training, and other resources that can help entrepreneurs and small business owners in the region.

    Concluding, though the whole idea of Nigeria achieving a trillion dollar economy presently looks like a mirage,  it is absolutely achievable, given the seriousness with which  the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu government has approached the country’s economic development – efforts which have since  been warmly commended by both the IMF, the World Bank as well as some other global financial agencies.

    To confirm that the President’s ambition of a trillion dollar economy is not a pipe dream, he informed the entire citizenry as follows during his 2025 National day broadcast:”Our administration has redirected the economy towards a more inclusive path, channelling money to fund education, health care, national security, agriculture, and political economy and infrastructure such as roads, power, broadband, and  social investment programmes.”

    Speaking further he highlighted the fact that Nigeria’s economy is showing signs of strong recovery by  recording a GDP growth of 4.23 percent in the second quarter of 2025, the fastest in four years, and higher than the 3.4 percent projected by the IMF.

    He added that inflation fell to 20.12 percent in August 2025, its lowest in three years.

    The country, he said, “has achieved 12 remarkable economic milestones in the last two years through sound fiscal and monetary policies. Among these, she recorded a “record-breaking increase in non-oil revenue, achieving 2025 targets by August with over 20 trillion”. “In September 2025 alone, he continued, we raised 3.65 trillion. That is 411 percent higher than the amount raised in May 2023.”

     “We have restored physical health, our debt service to revenue ratio has been significantly reduced from 97 percent to below 50 percent. We have beat down the infamous ways and means advances that threaten our economic stability and triggerred inflation”, said the President.

    Northern Nigeria’s current challenges, properly diagnosided, interrogated and seriously handled, can be the very  linchpin to achieving the ambition of a trillion dollar economy. The North is that endowed.

  • Afe Babalola: From farmboy to global icon

    Afe Babalola: From farmboy to global icon

    At 97, renowned legal giant and founder of Afe Babalola University, Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State (ABUAD), Aare Afe Babalola, SAN, stands tall as one of Nigeria’s most iconic figures. His story, woven from the rough fabrics of poverty and stitched together by courage and determination, remains one of the most inspiring chronicles of personal triumph. From a mud house in Ado-Ekiti, the son of a farmer  has built inspiring legacies in law, education, agriculture, health and philanthropy, attaining global recognition in the process. Correspondent RASAQ IBRAHIM writes…..

    In the story of human triumph, only few names resonate with the sheer force of resilience, intellect, and vision as that of foremost legal luminary, Chief Afe Babalola SAN, a man who turned every barrier into stepping stones and every setback into platforms for greatness.

    From the mud walls of a rural homestead to the marble halls of global recognition, Babalola’s journey reads like a chronicle of possibilities and the incredible ascent of a man who refused to be confined by circumstance and limitations.

    Born in 1928 in Ado-Ekiti, the Ekiti State capital into a humble farming family, his early life was defined by scarcity rather than privilege. He grew up in a world where formal education was an unaffordable luxury. His parents could not send him to secondary school, but his insatiable thirst for knowledge refused to die and he held fast to the dream of learning his way out of poverty.

    Driven by his ‘I can do it’ spirit, Babalola defied all odds and shattered the glass ceilings to educate himself. He turned his small room in Odo Ado Area of Ado-Ekiti into a classroom, studying privately through correspondence under lantern-powered illumination while working on the farm by day, chasing a dream that seemed almost unattainable.

    Without a teacher, Babalola sat for and passed the Cambridge School Certificate Examination, the GCE Ordinary Level and Advanced Level examinations through correspondence. He later obtained his Bachelor’s Degree in Economics in 1959 and LL.B (Hons.) in 1963, both through private study, before being called to the Bar of England and Wales in July of that same year.

    For a man who began life on his father’s farm, that moment marked the crossing of a mighty threshold, from obscurity into limelight. Years later, his exceptional brilliance, intellectual and professional impacts earned him elevation to Nigerian Inner Bar as a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) in 1987.

    In 2015, his alma mater, the University of London, conferred on him an honorary Doctor of Laws (LL.D), making him the first African to be so honoured in the university’s 179-year history, a rare distinction that crowned his unalloyed commitment and devotion to excellence.

    Returning home after his studies, he joined Olu Ayoola & Co. in Ibadan, Oyo State, where he worked with the Ayoola brothers. In 1965, he left Olu Ayoola & Co to established the Emmanuel Chamber at Ekotedo, Ibadan. From its humble beginnings, the firm grew into one of the most formidable law practices in Nigeria. Over the decades, Emmanuel Chambers has handled landmark cases for individuals, multinational companies, royal families, corporations, the Federal Government and top ranking politicians across the country.

    Beyond its immeasurable victories at the temple of justice, the chamber has made history as Nigeria’s most prolific legal training ground, having produced the highest number of Senior Advocates of Nigeria from a single law firm. Over the decades, the chamber has produced a generation of outstanding lawyers, judges and SANs who trace their professional roots to the mentorship of their principal. Two of his protégés even rose to become Attorneys-General and Ministers of Justice of the Federation, an uncommon testament to the enduring legacy of mentorship that audaciously defines his legal philosophy.

    From the first day he stepped into legal profession, his reputation for honesty, thoroughness, and intellectual depth has set him apart. To those who worked with him, Babalola was more than a boss; he was a teacher and reformer. To the larger legal community, he became a colossus whose name commands reverence in Nigeria’s legal landscape and beyond.

    For more than seven decades, the Afe Babalola University, Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State (ABUAD) founder stood as a moral compass to the bar. His courtroom brilliance, ethical discipline, scholarship and mastery of advocacy earned him the reputation of a legend and institution in the temple of justice.

    Babalola’s influence transcends the four walls of courtroom. His patriotism and commitment to development have left indelible marks on Ekiti and beyond. He contributed significantly to the creation of Ekiti State;  played a pivotal role in the establishment of the Federal Polytechnic, Ado-Ekiti; constructed a building for the Faculty of Law at the Ekiti State University (EKSU) to secure accreditation for its Law programme among other philanthropic interventions.

    Despite his closeness to power, Babalola consistently shunned political office. He turned down offers twice from former military Head of States – the late General Sani Abacha, and later from ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo to serve as minister. Instead, he chose a different form of service. He accepted to serve as Pro-Chancellor and Chairman of the University of Lagos (UNILAG) Governing Council, a role he undertook for eight years without collecting remuneration.

    His tenure at UNILAG soon became a national benchmark for accountability, transparency, and visionary leadership. Under his watch, the university regained stability, restored discipline, as well as reclaimed its pride of place among foremost universities in the country.

    Babalola’s experience at UNILAG opened his eyes to the deep-seated decay in the country’s education system, including the declining standard, poor infrastructure among others. It was a revelation that altered his life’s direction. After conquering law, Babalola turned his gaze to another frontier aimed at fixing Nigeria’s faltering education system.

    Armed with the same audacity that once carried him from a mud house to global recognition, he decided to build a model university that would reposition Nigeria’s university education. Out of that vision was born ABUAD, an institution of repute that has since become the standard for academic and scholastic excellence in Africa’s educational landscape.

    Established in 2009 entirely through his personal vision and resources, ABUAD rose from a barren expanse of land into a world-class university that now ranks among the best ivory towers in Africa and counted among the top 100 in the world.

    The university, equipped with modern facilities, world-class teaching hospital, extensive farmlands and an industrial park, has emerged as a benchmark for what Nigerian universities can achieve through vision, strategic planning and commitment.

    In recognition of his towering catalogue of achievements and lifelong service to humanity, law, education and community development, the Ewi of Ado-Ekiti, Oba Rufus Adeyemo Adejugbe Aladesanmi III, declared October 18 of every year as “Aare Afe Babalola Day.”

    The monarch described the honour as a collective expression of gratitude from the people of Ado-Ekiti to one of their most distinguished sons, a man whose accomplishments, vision, philanthropy and discipline have not only placed the ancient town on the global map but also redefined its socio-economic landscape.

    According to Oba Adejugbe, the day was set aside to celebrate a legacy built on the tripod of selflessness, integrity and transformative leadership, virtues that continue to inspire generations across Nigeria and beyond.

    The maiden edition of the celebration, held on October 18, 2024, was a historic event in the state capital. Dignitaries from across Nigeria including traditional rulers, academics, legal icons, business leaders and political figures converged on Ado-Ekiti to honour the nonagenarian who has become a symbol of excellence and resilience.

    Keeping with his character and spartan discipline lifestyle, Babalola marked the day not with pomp or extravagance, but with an act of empowerment. The legal icon announced a N200 million donation to establish two co-operative societies – one for men and another for women; to enable them access soft loans at just 5% interest rate to start or expand small-scale businesses.

    He stated that the initiative was aimed at reducing poverty and unemployment among his people, by providing access to affordable credit facilities for ordinary Nigerians. The co-operatives, he said, were designed to empower artisans, farmers, traders and market women who had been excluded from mainstream  banking due to high lending rates and stringent conditions.

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    Over the past year, the cooperative societies have become a beacon of hope for many low-income earners across Ekiti State. Dozens of beneficiaries have started small businesses, improved their farms and expanded existing trades, validating Babalola’s long-held belief that empowerment, not charity, remains the most sustainable route to  economic freedom.

    The second edition of Aare Afe Babalola Day, held at the Ewi’s Palace, Ado-Ekiti, last weekend, built upon that foundation. The epoch-making event attracted top government officials, lawyers, captains of industries and community leaders to celebrate the man widely regarded as the “architect of modern Ado-Ekiti.”

    At the event, Babalola decried the rising bank interest rates in Nigeria, describing it as one of the obstacles to economic independence, national development and citizen empowerment. He lamented that the prevailing 20 percent interest rate charged by commercial banks has made access to credit impossible for small business owners and farmers, worsening unemployment and poverty.

    The legal luminary said the co-operative societies he established had become fully operational, supporting more than 2,000 people across the state. He noted that the initiative had inspired renewed hope among local entrepreneurs, helping many to break free from the constraints of the formal banking sector.

    Babalola announced an additional N100million donation to the cooperative societies, raising their total capital base to N300 million.  The extra funds, he explained, would expand the reach of the scheme, allowing more beneficiaries to access affordable loans and grow sustainable businesses.

    He urged members to adhere strictly to the co-operative’s repayment structure and guidelines, noting that discipline and accountability were key to the success and continuity of the  programme.

    Babalola also donated another N100million towards completion of the Ewi’s Palace Pavilion, a gesture that drew applause from the audience and underscored his enduring dedication to community development.

    In his remarks, Ekiti State Governor, Mr Biodun Oyebanji, described Babalola as a living legend whose selflessness and vision have redefined philanthropy and leadership in Nigeria.

    The governor, represented by his Deputy, Chief Monisade Afuye, said Babalola’s numerous contributions to education, law, health, agriculture and community development had immortalised his name and created legacies that would outlive him.

    “The name Afe Babalola is special to us in Ekiti State and particularly to Governor Oyebanji in so many ways,” she said. “His fatherly and advisory roles have been instrumental to the smooth running of this administration,” he added.

  • Rejigging security, reinforcing democracy, restoring balance in governance

    Rejigging security, reinforcing democracy, restoring balance in governance

    It was another eventful week in Nigeria’s seat of power, one that may go down as one of the most decisive since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office on May 29, 2023. From Sunday through Friday, the President’s schedule brimmed with consequential developments, but the latter part of the week stood out, marked by two of the most symbolically and institutionally significant actions of his presidency so far: the swearing-in of a new electoral umpire and the dramatic shake-up in the military hierarchy.

    By Friday evening, Nigerians had seen the Commander-in-Chief once again reaffirm his leadership hallmark, a readiness to make bold decisions in pursuit of national renewal, no matter how politically sensitive or institutionally disruptive they might appear.

    President Tinubu’s decision to replace the Service Chiefs on Friday came as a surprise to many observers, but to close watchers of his governance pattern, it was a move long anticipated. Security has always been a defining pillar of his Renewed Hope Agenda, and his inaugural speech in May 2023 made that clear when he pledged to “reform our security architecture, increase personnel, improve training, and enhance the welfare of our Armed Forces.”

    The new appointments, announced through the Presidency and later personally affirmed by the President on his verified X handle, saw the emergence of Lieutenant General Olufemi Oluyede as Chief of Defence Staff, Major-General Waidi. Shaibu as Chief of Army Staff, Air Vice Marshal Sunday Kelvin Aneke as Chief of Air Staff, and Rear Admiral Idi Abbas as Chief of Naval Staff. Major-General E.A.P. Undiendeye retained his position as Chief of Defence Intelligence.

    In a tone that balanced gratitude with resolve, President Tinubu thanked the outgoing military heads, led by General Christopher Musa, for their “patriotic service and dedicated leadership.” But he wasted no time setting the tone for the next phase of his security vision.

    “I charge the new Service Chiefs to deepen professionalism, vigilance, and unity within our Armed Forces as they serve our nation with honour,” he declared.

    Those words were not merely ceremonial; they reflected a deeper urgency. For the President, the persistent insecurity in the North-Central region, banditry in the North-West, and terror cells in parts of the North-East remain stains on the government’s broader record of national stabilization.

    It is this same sense of urgency that explains why the President is not afraid of changing hands when the situation demands it. “Recalibration,” as one senior aide put it, is an indispensable tool in the President’s security doctrine — one aimed at sustaining operational momentum, improving inter-service coordination, and ensuring leadership renewal within the Armed Forces.

    Some speculative reports in a section of the media attempted to link the reshuffle to an alleged failed putsch — claims the Presidency has flatly dismissed. Special Adviser to the President on Media and Public Communication, Chief Sunday Dare, made it clear that the exercise was “routine” and entirely within the President’s constitutional powers as Commander-in-Chief.

    “The President, as the Grand Commander of the Order of the Federal Republic, can make such appointments just as he changed ministers a few months ago,” Dare explained, adding that the changes were designed “to strengthen Nigeria’s national security architecture for greater efficiency and effectiveness.”

    The President’s track record since taking office suggests that he sees national security reform as a continuous process rather than a one-off exercise. From expanding counterterrorism coordination to integrating technology-driven intelligence gathering, Tinubu’s approach reflects a blend of tactical flexibility and strategic vision.

    In a country where internal and external threats are constantly evolving, from insurgency to economic sabotage, the recalibration of the top brass underscores a commitment to adaptive governance. The President’s renewed charge for “vigilance and unity” within the Armed Forces serves both as a directive and a warning: that the fight to secure Nigeria must be prosecuted with total professionalism and loyalty to the republic.

    Barely a day before the military shake-up, the President had presided over another ceremony of national significance — the swearing-in of Professor Joash Amupitan as the new Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

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    If Friday’s event symbolized the defense of the state, Thursday’s was about defending democracy itself.

    Speaking during the swearing-in ceremony, which preceded a special session of the National Economic Council (NEC), with the Vice President, President of the Senate, Godswill Akpabio, Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu, Senate Leader, Senator Opeyemi Bamidele, the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume, President Tinubu charged Amupitan to ensure that Nigeria’s elections remain “free, fair, and credible.”

    “It is important that our elections are free, fair and credible. We must continue improving our electoral process, addressing the challenges of yesterday and innovating for today,” the President said, moments after administering the oath of office.

    The President’s message was both direct and philosophical. He reminded the new INEC chairman that electoral integrity is the foundation of democracy, and that “protecting the sanctity of the ballot is essential to the people’s right to choose their leaders and shape their collective destiny.”

    Coming at a time when public confidence in electoral institutions has been tested by past controversies, Tinubu’s emphasis on “transparency, non-violence, and credibility” carried special weight.

    While acknowledging that no electoral system is perfect, he stressed that INEC must continue to reform and innovate, keeping its operations resilient against manipulation and what he called “artificial setbacks.”

    The President congratulated Amupitan on his Senate-confirmed appointment, describing it as a “testament to your capacity and the confidence reposed in you by both the Executive and Legislative arms of government.”

    He further reminded the new INEC boss that his tenure begins with a critical test — the November 2025 Anambra governorship election, which, Tinubu said, would serve as a benchmark for the commission’s credibility under his leadership.

    For a President who has consistently reiterated his faith in Nigeria’s democratic process — even as a product of its evolution, the ceremony was more than administrative. It was a reaffirmation of his pledge to consolidate the democratic gains of the Fourth Republic, ensuring that the 25-year-old experiment continues to mature through credible elections.

    In the midst of these high-profile institutional changes, another event on Tuesday added depth to the week’s narrative, the nomination of Dr. Bernard Mohammed Doro from Plateau State as a Minister of the Federal Republic.

    The President’s letter to the Senate seeking Dr. Doro’s confirmation filled the vacancy created by the elevation of Professor Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda, former Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, to the position of National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

    At first glance, it seemed a routine administrative step. But viewed within the broader context of Tinubu’s governance philosophy, it reflected his meticulous attention to institutional balance and operational continuity.

    Dr. Doro’s background — spanning clinical practice, pharmaceutical management, strategic leadership, and community engagement — positions him as a technocrat aligned with the administration’s “Renewed Hope” ethos of competence-driven governance.

    For President Tinubu, ensuring that no cog in the machinery of government remains idle is essential to sustaining reform momentum. The prompt replacement of an outgoing minister, particularly in a portfolio as sensitive as humanitarian affairs, demonstrates his insistence that “all parts of the government’s engine must function optimally.”

    Doro’s nomination thus tied the week’s events together — a microcosm of the President’s governing style: decisive, detail-oriented, and determined to keep Nigeria moving forward.

    There were definitely other events and activities that defined the week. From the spiritual aura of royal blessings in Benin to the global corridors of financial diplomacy in Paris, the President’s engagements spoke to Nigeria’s rooted traditions and its modern aspirations. On Sunday, Tinubu’s warm felicitations to the Oba of Benin, Omo N’Oba N’Edo Uku Akpolokpolo Ewuare II, on his 9th coronation anniversary, captured his respect for heritage and institution. The same day, he celebrated media excellence, paying tribute to veteran journalist Ademola Osinubi, at 70, lauding him as a symbol of integrity and professionalism.

    By Monday, the focus turned to governance and morality. Represented by Vice President Kashim Shettima at an EFCC–NJI workshop, Tinubu charged the judiciary to intensify the anti-corruption fight — a moral battle central to his Renewed Hope Agenda. He also reached across the aisle, extolling Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso as a “progressive ally” on his 68th birthday.

    Midweek brought moments of both sorrow and continuity. On Tuesday, he consoled Senate Minority Leader Abba Moro over the tragic loss of his son and grandson, and mourned former Speaker Agunwa Anaekwe, recalling his courage in Nigeria’s democratic struggles. By Wednesday, he had approved a two-year tenure extension for the Surveyor-General, AbuduGaniyu Adebomehin, to consolidate ongoing geospatial reforms.

    Then came Thursday and Friday — days of international validation and human celebration. Tinubu congratulated Ekperikpe Ekpo and Philip Mshelbila for their new global gas diplomacy roles, and rejoiced with Chief Olayinka Fasuyi at 70 and Chief Kessington Adebutu at 90. He hailed Japan’s first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, and closed the week triumphantly as Nigeria exited the FATF grey list — a diplomatic and economic victory that crowned a week steeped in meaning and momentum.

    From the barracks to the ballot box, and from the cabinet room to the corridors of diplomacy, the events of the last week collectively project one thing: President Tinubu’s unflinching resolve to consolidate Nigeria’s stability and credibility, both at home and abroad.

    The replacement of the Service Chiefs signals that the President is unsentimental when it comes to performance in the nation’s most critical sectors. The swearing-in of the INEC Chairman affirms his commitment to democratic reform and electoral transparency. And the nomination of a new minister underscores his discipline in ensuring that governance never leaves a vacuum.

    Together, these actions portray a leader fully engaged in the machinery of statecraft, aware of the challenges before him but also determined to recalibrate, reorganize, and rebuild where necessary.

    As one senior administration official put it, “The President is not improvising; he is implementing, step by step, a comprehensive renewal plan for Nigeria.”

    And indeed, if this week’s series of bold actions are anything to go by, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has shown once again that the Renewed Hope Agenda is not a slogan but a work in progress — one reshuffle, one reform, and one reaffirmation of democratic integrity at a time.

  • The coup stories

    The coup stories

    The federal government is adamant there was no coup attempt. The military speaks fluently of taking some disciplinary measures against more than a dozen soldiers that ran afoul of the law. But the media blithely reported stories and follow-up stories of a coup they indicated was probably at its infancy or conceptual stage when it was busted. Even if the attempt was at an advanced stage, it still does not matter. It does not also matter at this point which speculation or account is right, or how the government would respond, nor whether the change of service chiefs had anything to do with it. What really matters are the social media commentaries accompanying the media reports of the supposed coup, how some commentaries suggested Nigerian democracy was not worth defending, and how still some other comments showed their revulsion against the political elite who in their view should be got rid of by whatever means.

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    Ignorance in Nigeria, particularly of how the economy works, is more massive than first thought. It astonishes this writer that to some people, Nigerian democracy, which today is even more robust than America’s, should not be defended in the event of a coup. It is more worrisome that despite the education they boast of, some commentators could still go ahead to conflate the hardship in the country with the health of the country’s democracy. They seem to think that if democracy is threatened and it is not defended, it is democracy itself or other people that would bear the brunt of the calamity. Worse, it is far more tragic that for some other commentators, their intense loathing for President Bola Tinubu justifies their distaste for democracy and canonises their conviction that should a coup be planned, it would not be a bad idea for it to succeed. For them, the country and its democracy are equal to, or interchangeable with, the president.

    Given media reports of the incident, few Nigerians doubt a coup was not afoot. But here is the real tragedy: that the exigencies of the moment and the education and commonsense of the presumed plotters, not to say the lessons learnt from this country’s inglorious history with military rule, do not dissuade coupists and their supporters from their exultations. Could it be true that some officers were so dumb as not to know that while they can guarantee the firing of the first bullet, they have no way of knowing how or when the last bullet would be fired; or whether a coup would not sound the death knell for both the republic and the country as a whole? Since the 2023 poll was concluded, too many people, including activists and unions, have incited either a coup or an insurrection without fear of consequence. It may be time for the government to put its foot down; for after all is said and done, Nigeria is in fact a more tolerable country to live in and thrive, as global events are showing.

  • Southeast builds next generation of leaders

    Southeast builds next generation of leaders

    While a number of leading politicians in the Southeast and a huge percentage of party supporters in the same region have remained fixated on old political orthodoxy, a few governors are gently but firmly breaking out of the cocoon to carve a national niche and circle of influence for themselves. These few governors and a minister – Peter Mbah of Enugu State, Hope Uzodinma of Imo State, Chukwuma Soludo of Anambra State, and David Umahi of Ebonyi State – have realised that they must calibrate their regional appeal vis-à-vis their national influence to stand any chance of making a mark at the national level in the years ahead. They have seemed to realise how counterproductive the regional appeal subscribed to by Peter Obi, a former Anambra governor and Labour Party presidential candidate in the 2023 election, could be.

    Leadership paradigm is shifting in the Southeast. A new generation of leaders is emerging in the region, and it eschews the needless antagonisms and opportunisms of the past. It recognises that despite being somewhat viewed with suspicion, that new paradigm involves an uncanny appreciation of how the power pendulum is swinging at the national level and which alliances they must associate with in order to stand any chance of future political successes. In their private musings and public discussions and debates the three governors and a minister have understudied the Southwest and discovered that excessive regional appeal could countermand, if not entirely undermine, a significant national appeal. They appreciate the qualities displayed by Chief Obafemi Awolowo, but noted how dismally he performed when he sought higher national office. And they saw how MKO Abiola created a groundswell of national following that galvanised his politics and gave him the 1993 presidential election.

    More crucially, the emerging national leaders from the Southeast also saw how President Bola Tinubu carved a national following and, despite seemingly insurmountable obstacles erected by powerful interests and top political leaders around the country, won the 2023 poll. They have learnt to ignore every other thing controversial about him, and have chosen to focus on his methods. They have seen that to make a mark, a Southeast politician must have the broadened view of a national player, unencumbered by ethnicity and religion, and the self-immolating parochialism of irredentists and religious fanatics. Equally important, they have seized the small opportunity of leadership positions at all levels to leave an indelible developmental mark on their states and ministry. While the Southwest is immersed in complacency and has not produced a stand-out leader in the states in recent years, the emerging Southeast leaders have imbued their efforts with a sense of urgency never seen before in their region.

    While Mr Uzodinma’s first electoral victory as governor in 2019 was controversial and the second in 2024 spectacular and well-deserved, he has proved a great asset to the state, and has offered remarkable and liberal leadership to his state and the region instead of the stifling insularism hitherto popular among Southeast politicians. Educated at Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA, and Federal University of Technology, Owerri, the two-term senator (2011-2019) counsels the Southeast to change their political paradigm from the narrow-minded provincialism they have long embraced to the open and tolerant politics that will help them break free of the chokehold that has kept them marginalised and grumbling. He probably stumbled into the All Progressives Congress (APC) as a result of the discrimination he suffered in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on which platform he was a senator, but since his arrival in the APC he has deprecated the ethnic card and has played expansive and broad-minded politics, seeking new friends and networking with a deliberateness that indicates foresight.

    Mr Uzodinma is 66. While he will continue to be relevant after his second term as governor, it is unlikely he still harbours any presidential ambition. He may have laid a solid political foundation for himself, but neither time nor geopolitics is on his side. On the other hand, Mr Umahi, an engineer and current Works minister harboured presidential dreams, and indeed showed interest in the 2022 APC presidential primary; but at 62, it is not clear whether time and geopolitics will be kind to him. Far in excess of what he had achieved as a governor, he has displayed brilliance and energy in his current assignment as a minister. Migrating to the APC in 2018 as a second term governor, he finished well and strong, installing a successor and leaving indelible developmental marks on Ebonyi State. Polemical and outspoken, he has also joined other emerging regional political leaders to warn about the countervailing factor of regional provincialism in presidential politics. He scorned Mr Obi’s efforts, describing the optimistic and naïve LP candidate’s presidential campaign in 2022 and 2023 as deeply flawed and doomed from the beginning.

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    Another emerging leader is the redoubtable Prof. Soludo, a first-class economist and academician who is unafraid of controversy or debate. He is up for reelection early next month; he is projected to win by a healthy margin. He showed interest early enough in politics, particularly in the governorship of his state. Had he won early, he would have stamped himself in the consciousness of Nigerians far earlier than he has done and much more effectively than during his governorship of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) between 2004 and 2009. A visiting scholar at some of the world’s most prestigious universities in the US and UK, the 65-year-old governor may have flowered politically a little too late despite his glittering resume. He has chalked up outstanding records as governor, and has wondered at the naivety of many south-easterners in the game of national politics. Like Messrs Uzodinma and Umahi, the eminent economist and All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) chieftain, has already taken his place in the Southeast pantheon. He will continue to be relevant locally and nationally.

    At just 53, Enugu’s Mr Mbah has demonstrated he is not afraid to take risks. Critics in the Southeast may not understand why the lawyer and businessman took the fateful step of defecting to the APC, but he is showing the region his capability for perspective reasoning by foreswearing parochial politics in favour of national and liberal politics with a crossover appeal. He will still be within the presidential age range when power rotates to the South in 2039 when it would be much harder to deny the Southeast finally. At that time, an aspirant will not only need a great and powerful party platform, he must also show his connections, have a record of supporting others to get to the top or win national elections, and must possess the ideological rampart to back his ambition. Mr Mbah is both an achiever and an intuitive politician who has his heart in the right place. Though he only managed to win the Enugu governorship poll controversially, should elections be held today, he will win by a landslide. Such is the force of his vision and developmental strides that only few governors can match.

    For the first time in generations, the Southeast is producing leaders who can fight for their place nationally, pound-for-pound. They are showing courage in disavowing the sterile and crippling political orthodoxies of the past, and are projecting strength and intellectual depth far beyond their region, and breaking glass ceilings of all kind. They seem to be confirming what many political analysts have always concluded: that there is no inherent distrust or hatred for the Southeast; that what the region needs are cosmopolitan politicians who have paid their dues by associating with and supporting other national politicians in order to merit other people’s support. Messrs Soludo, Umahi, Uzodinma, and Mbah will go far, very far. They are the powerful and reassuring face of the new Southeast politics, and will help shape the elections of 2027, 2031, and beyond.

  • The Nnamdi Kanu affair

    The Nnamdi Kanu affair

    When self-determination agitator Nnamdi Kanu sacked his lawyers during the trial court’s last sitting, he signaled his preference for legal histrionics rather than substance. He will go on to give Nigerians and the courts a horse dose of that medicine as he takes over his defence. Already he is assembling, at least theoretically, a cavalry of international and domestic witnesses certain to grind his trial either to a halt entirely or to a snail’s pace. Many of the witnesses in question loath him; but he believes he stands on excellent legal grounds to haul them before the Federal High Court, Abuja where he expects to put them through punishing cross-examinations disconcerting enough to make them stammer or implicate themselves. He will not have his wish, of course, but he will entertain everyone, including himself, snd animate the gullible.

    In July 2024, this column had weighed in on Mr Kanu’s long-running trial saga by suggesting that it was time to discontinue his case, not because there were no grounds to lock him up for good, but because the trial had become disruptive and distracting. In addition, argued the writer, it was time to respect the Southeast elite who had, speaking as one man it seemed, importuned President Bola Tinubu to release their son to them, with the region’s political elite standing as guarantors. It seemed a fair campaign, suggested the writer, but cautioned that restraining the voluble agitator who thrived on chaos and noise would be difficult, if not impossible. If they could guarantee that they would rein him in, a prospect the writer doubted, it was time to discontinue his case and release him. Mr Kanu, the scarlet pimpernel, had been arrested in 2015 and charged in court, but fled in 2017 while on bail, and was renditioned in 2021 and charged again in January 2022.

    In 2025, the case is still as far from resolution as it was when he was extraordinarily renditioned from Kenya to Nigeria. His co-agitator, the Southwest’s flamboyant and superstitious Sunday Adeyemo, alias Sunday Igboho, had since got his freedom, not from Nigeria, but from Benin Republic where he had fled, was tried, and eventually released. It turned out that the Beninese justice system is not as convoluted as Nigeria’s, nor Mr Igboho himself as dramatic, incendiary, tragic and flawed as Mr Kanu. As a matter of fact, where Mr Igboho spoke in terms of using supernatural powers to achieved self-determination, with a hint of violence if it came to it, Mr Kanu spoke of nothing else but threats and violence, following up his daily radio and video harangues with concrete steps that led to the formation of militia groups dedicated to the projection of unconstitutional power.

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    Seeing how Mr Kanu has theatrically stalled his case, treated his lawyers scornfully, and like activist Omoyele Sowore, carried himself with a pomposity even fascist Benito Mussolini never attempted, this writer now balks at Mr Kanu’s release or pardon, regardless of whatever strings are attached. He deserves a speedy trial, if his legal chicaneries will allow. Indeed, from all indications, he will get a fair trial, despite the allegations of bias levelled against the Nigerian justice system. And since he has sacked his lawyers, obviously by mutual consent in order to allow him leeway to indulge his dramatic and bombastic escapades, the ball will remain squarely in his court. However, the courts should not allow him in the driver’s seat, let alone acquiesce to his whimsical speed. It is important for the courts to be in unequivocal control of the substance of the case and the tempo of the trial. Mr Kanu has developed a habit of not just pomposity, he also suffers from delusions of grandeur and would love to seize control of proceedings should the judge be lax in any way. They should not let him.

    Last week’s street agitation in support of Mr Kanu, promoted and executed by Mr Sowore using his foreign grants, is a meddlesome attempt to confuse, complicate and undermine the terrorism trial. The protests presumed, like many non-south easterners, that there was a regional consensus in favour of Mr Kanu’s release. There was none. And there is unlikely to be any. The violence Mr Kanu’s supporters, particularly the Eastern Security Network (ESN) and the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra (IPOB), left in their wake has shattered families, destroyed lives, and caused cataclysmic economic losses in the region such that nothing would please some south-easterners more than to see the agitator locked up for a long time. They may forego reparations, but they want their pound of flesh, with or without blood. In any case, what is paramount is that his enemies and his supporters have called for justice. Let the courts ensure that ultimately justice is served, no matter how much delayed.

    The media have generally tended to line up behind Mr Kanu. It is hard to understand why. They may perhaps simply be pivoting from their deep animosity towards President Tinubu to supporting anything and anyone opposed to the president, anything to bring the president to heel. Whatever the case, no one who has reflected on the Kanu case will fail to appreciate that it goes far beyond what the president has done or not done. The Kanu affair is first a regional ploy, then a national security issue, and finally a personal and megalomaniacal drive by a man so enamoured of speaking and acting violence in ways that are mocking, confrontational and unfeeling. Whether the courts can find any mitigation for his words and methods, for instance judicially appraising the manner of his rendition from Kenya in June 2021 and his exculpation by a Nairobi court in June 2025, is entirely up to the judges and the evidence adduced before their lordships. 

  • SNAPSONG 270

    SNAPSONG 270

    Toto, o se bi owe… Proverbially speaking   (1)

    We have been large, so large for too long

    Time to be small and great again

    A self-set blaze consumes our roof

    But we have no time for little arsons

    What happens when the people

    Gift the throne to a king

    Who makes little dolls

    Out of them and their children’s children

    What happens when a country

     Reels from the choke

    Of a tyranny foretold

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    From tower tops to marketplaces

    What happens when a people

    Walk into an open trap

    Blindfolded by a farce conceived in chaos

    How did this tragedy unfold in a land of vigorous laughter?

    “We have too much Science in our land”.

    Croaked the King of  shallow aspects

    “Yes, time for the Great Unknowing,

    Beautiful and absolutely tremendous!

     How can a people think they are at their tallest

    When they bow in passive silence

    What nation can ever grow its best

     When buried in abject obedience?

  • PDP fails to break the siege

    PDP fails to break the siege

    When he concluded plaintively on October 11 that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was powerless to arrest the defections of leading members of his party, it was obvious that Bauchi State governor and PDP Governors’ Forum chairman, Bala Mohammed, was despondent. “I cannot say that my colleagues are wrong,” he began with a hint of sarcasm, sounding almost like he was dreaming. “They are free to do whatever they choose. But I have been advising them that even those who left are not finding it easier because most of the people at the grassroots level are PDP and are not happy with the defections. Sometimes, it is done because of permutations and calculations. I will not denigrate or speak negatively about my colleagues, I assure you.” His lament came shortly after the cat was let out of the bag about Enugu State governor Peter Mbah’s impending defection. Three days later, Mr Mbah left the PDP and berthed at the All Progressives Congress (APC), giving convincing reasons and ignoring Mr Mohammed’s remonstrations.

    Before the week ran out, another governor, Douye Diri of Bayelsa State, one of the least expected to defect, though it had been widely rumoured, had left the PDP sheepfold. He too gave eloquent reasons for his exit. More defections could still follow, for the leading opposition party has proved incompetent to arrest the exodus. But those who prematurely sing a funeral dirge for the PDP suggest that the ruling APC seems bent on fostering a dictatorship over Nigeria, a one-party state that would dim the light of democracy. They exaggerate. The defection problem is less what the APC plans to do as what the PDP omits to do. Yes, the opposition party faces grave existential challenge, but it still possesses the seed to counter the ruling party and give hope for the future. The party is now down to eight states, from a decent 13 in 2023. It lost one through off-cycle election, and four by defections: Bayelsa, Enugu, Delta and Akwa Ibom. But it prefers to moralise the problem rather than strategise to arrest it. It prefers to preach rather than act timely and sensibly.

    Two things ail the PDP: a lack of visionary and assertive leadership, and a lack of strategy. Since it lost the epoch-defining and mind-shaping presidential election of 2015, the party was never the same. Ex-president Goodluck Jonathan who cost them the election refused to fall on his sword in penance for leading the troops to disaster; instead, he did much worse. Alleging betrayal against his party members and leaders, and displaying a sense of entitlement at a time when his leadership was sorely needed and even demanded, he sulked back to his native state. And when he caught his breath a little, he returned to Abuja and promptly adopted the post of ambassador plenipotentiary, stomping through African states and cities for election monitoring and other peacemaking duties, supposedly mocking Nigerians about the gem they foolishly scorned. But Nigeria has since moved on to other seductions. PDP leaders’ judgement was of course often infantile, but they were determined not to have anything to do with Dr Jonathan whom they controversially blamed for all their miseries and shortcomings. The party panted for great and transformative leaders who could stanch the flow of electoral blood depleting them, but no leader came forward. Their 2015 loss had so bewildered them that they lost the will to live or even play politics intelligently.

    Former Rivers governor Nyesom Wike saw the vacuum after 2015 and immediately filled it. He imbued the party with a new sense of direction, energised them with funds, imposed his will on party chieftains, and brought the party out of the doldrums. Even when some dissatisfied party chiefs lured the nomadic former vice president Atiku Abubakar into using the party’s platform to contest the presidency, Mr Wike still held the reins, refusing to feel scorned by ungrateful party members. The return of Alhaji Abubakar unfortunately produced two counterproductive elements. Firstly, it opened the party to his unhealthy and entitled influence; and secondly, it robbed the party of the commitment and resourcefulness of Mr Wike. With dissension now freely coursing through the party and polluting its soul, it was just a few steps away from disaster. That disaster exploded in their faces in 2023, and shortly after the polls, Alhaji Atiku, the great nomad, once again departed for greener pastures, thrusting the knife deeper into the party’s back. This time, sadly, there was no one left in the party to help pick up the pieces. All its leaders are now gone, and third-rate leaders with no sense of direction, urgency or the funds to back up their talk are inexpertly attempting to chart a new path.

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    The second failing is even much worse than the first. Yes, the PDP lacks vibrant and imaginative leaders; but by lacking a strategy to reclaim and rediscover itself, the party has become rudderless. After losing the 2015 elections, it was apoplectic and began adopting desperate and impractical measures. But after losing the 2023 presidential election, party leaders seemed to have virtually lost all hope thereby endangering the party’s survival. After the 2025 electoral disaster, party leaders should have constituted a high-powered panel to rejig the party and recreate its purpose by refining and honing its founding ideals. Instead, they were obsessed with the next presidential election in 2019, sought for a draftee to be their champion, and found the mercurial and jinxed Alhaji Atiku. The founding ideals of the party should have been repurposed, and party organs and structures should have been reworked in a way that finds and elevates new or younger and more driven leaders. As a matter of fact, they should have glossed over the 2019 election and set a new timetable for themselves, either 2023 or 2027. Unfortunately, they spurned the idea of the long haul, ignored the crying need for restructuring, and rushed with fatal consequences into the next electoral war they were both unsuited and unprepared for.

    It is, however, not too late to make amends once they are persuaded that they need to do substantial refitting of their party. They must start by acknowledging that they are too hobbled by internal dissension to win the 2027 presidential poll. Next, they must find brilliant and animated politicians with the resources and rhetorical flourish who can both approximate and aggregate their future and speak persuasively and fluently to it. They must centre their renewal on those who remain behind, the real altruists who are willing to work and put their shoulders to the wheel, men and women who see the PDP as a project worth dying for. Twelve years of losing presidential elections may have deprived them of the capacity to mentor the party’s future leaders; it is now time to find and mentor the hopes of that future. The APC will not always be strong, and may even sometimes drop the ball; the PDP must, therefore, find ways to take advantage of those overconfident and careless moments.

    Some analysts have predicted the demise of the opposition party; but such predictions are probably exaggerated. Party leaders must not allow those predictions to become self-fulfilling. Pride may not allow them to abandon the 2027 race, which may explain why they have been hunting for jaded politicians like Dr Jonathan to come and help them fight the Goliath confronting them. Let them instead register only a token presence in the race; and let them strategise for the future, a strategy that begins with repurposing and refitting their once powerful party. Indeed, their main challenge is finding a few brilliant and altruistic leaders to lead the charge, men who understand strategy and deplore political self-aggrandisement.

  • Defections and wind of change

    Defections and wind of change

    In 2023, the All Progressives Congress (APC) controlled 20 states and 59 senate seats. It was not a tenuous hold, but it was also not an overwhelming grip. By last week, that control had expanded to 24 states, and in the senate, to a dominant 73 seats from its 2023 level of 59 seats. These growths have been due to steady defections from opposition political parties to the ruling party, with the stream getting less viscous than one or two years ago. The APC’s previously controversial economic reform that earned it repudiation is suddenly not as controversial as they once seemed, as the economy has begun to enjoy a rebound in place of the great spasms and suffocations of the earlier months. Even President Bola Tinubu previously, once caricatured as the devil or agent of despair, has in the estimation of many of his former ardent critics become prescient.

    Despite favourable economic indicators and uplifting governorship and legislative defections, few Nigerians predicted the massive change of affiliations witnessed in the past few months. The political cognoscenti might undoubtedly have foreseen some shifts, perhaps in a few vulnerable states or off-cycle elections states, but they will be telling tall stories to say they saw anything resembling the seismic shifts that have reshaped the political leanings of Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Enugu States. They had no pressing reasons to change alliances and were not under siege by anti-graft agencies on a scale and severity glibly referenced by critics. Nor was it obvious that by keeping their former affiliations they would be brutally suffocated by Abuja, especially considering that for the last two years there had been no punitive policies or exercises directed against opposition states. Indeed, the president had admired and recommended some opposition states and deprecated, privately and to a little extent publicly, a few states under the APC umbrella.

    All the off-cycle governorship elections held in the past two years, not to talk of most of the by-elections noised among opposition coalition leaders as definitive and epochal, have been won by the ruling party. They were not rigged. While they suffered a few administrative hiccups, they were nonetheless mostly free and fair. Opposition leaders were mystified by the seemingly inexorable trend that defied their confident projections; but they seemed, after catching their breath, to have either reconciled themselves to the wind of change blowing over Nigeria or acknowledged the new realities. It may get worse for them. That wind is not only political; it is also economical. The economy is growing at a healthy rate, foreign exchange rates have not fallen as precipitously as opponents had wished and instead stabilised and strentghened, the stock market is generally and invitingly bullish, and the world, which had in the first few months of the administration excoriated the administration’s policies and warned of apocalyptic consequences, have been surprisingly upbeat.

    The APC is still six states shy of the 31 the PDP boasted of in 2007 in the closing months of the Olusegun Obasanjo presidency. The ruling party is unlikely to match that PDP feat, and even if it does, it is unlikely to boast of ruling Nigeria for 60 unbroken years. The PDP dominance at the time was, however, a spinoff of the democratic euphoria sweeping over Nigeria, with indications to exultant Nigerians that the Fourth Republic would last longer than they dared to hope. The APC’s appeal in the past two years has been anchored on the administration’s courageous and perceptive management of the country’s distressed economy. Few analysts expected a turnaround as impressive and persuasive, with many of them initially sceptical about the bona fides of the men entrusted with the management of the economy, not to say the judgement of the president himself. But clearing $10bn forex debt, raising net foreign reserves from $3.99bn in 2023 to over $40bn last month, in addition to sustaining a growth rate of about four percent, all in a little over two years, was nothing less than phenomenal.

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    The governors saw a president willing to take the flak for them by absorbing acerbic public criticism that bordered on insurrection, a president who refused to engage in blame game with his predecessor, and one who freed public funds through courageous economic policies so that states could embark on massive infrastructural renewal while borrowing little from financial institutions. No, they didn’t need to be intimidated or cajoled into defecting. They saw the future, and despite the mocking conclusions of naysayers, decided to climb in bed with the APC administration. More governors and lawmakers could still defect because the indices of change and the power of the headwind appear irresistible.

    The chances of this wind of change metamorphosing into one-party dictatorship is, however, far-fetched. It didn’t happen under Chief Obasanjo when the ruling PDP controlled 31 states. It is unlikely to happen now for the same reasons it didn’t happen then. Nigeria is not dominated by one ethnic group or religion which sometimes provide the favourable ecosystem for dictatorship. In addition, its constitution is in fact becoming more federal than the inchoate unitarism of its unpromising and uncompromising beginnings. What is more, power is gradually devolving to the sub-nationals in a way that does not flagrantly and defiantly threaten the hegemonism of the cartels that have maintained a stranglehold on the country. In any case, as history has shown, a seismic shift to dictatorship is often facilitated by periods of economic emergencies, such as depression, or massive existential challenges, such as civil or external wars. Check out Spain under Franscisco Franco, Italy under Benito Mussolini, Germany under Adolf Hitler, and Portugal under Antonio Salazar, among others. Where military generals and political demagogues sometimes tended to authoritarianism when circumstances permit, economists and financial experts rarely make dictators or one-party virtuosi, of course with the notable exception of Prof. Salazar, a brilliant political economist who balanced his country’s distressed budget and lulled distraught and hungry Portuguese to complacency. 

  • Gen Irabor’s state of emergency call

    Gen Irabor’s state of emergency call

     In his book, ‘Scars: Nigeria’s journey and the Boko Haram conundrum’, former Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) Lucky Irabor calls for the declaration of a state of emergency to marshal all elements of national power towards ending the insurgency in the Northeast. Undoubtedly, that declaration would also deal with the insurgency cum banditry in the Northwest and North Central. Months ago, this writer called on the federal government to put Nigeria on a war footing by mobilising about 30,000 to 50,000 troops to deal with banditry and Boko Haram once and for all. In the words of Gen. Irabor, “The understanding of Boko Haram as purveyors of anguish and torment under the cloak of religious puritanism should serve as a lesson for all in our future socio-cultural and socio-political interactions.” The former CDS also argued that the actions of the insurgents were disconnected from religion which they, however, use to mask their predatory and nihilistic goals.

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    At the rate misleading inferences are distorting the terrorism narrative in Nigeria, especially with allegations of intentional genocide ascribed to government connivance, if not collusion, it is no longer realistic to continue to waffle about labels and definitions or which measures are sensible and adequate to combat terrorism in the North. For years the Nigerian government had deployed sterile paradigms to fight terror and experimented with a mixture of kinetic and non-kinetic measures based on their understanding of the multifarious roots and manifestations of the crisis. This is sheer sophistry. While much progress has been made in battling banditry and Boko Haram, it is nevertheless time to mobilise once and for all to defeat the spreading cancer. It is only after victory that it may be time to embark on non-kinetic measures to deal with the root causes of the crisis. To rehabilitate insurgents midway in the war is, for instance, to open the government to allegations of official connivance, another way of saying, as Gen. Irabor argued, that the country lacked the political will to defeat insurgency. It is not certain that insurgents are deliberately dispersing their forces into autonomous cells to saturate all parts of the country with terror and stretch the military thin and run them ragged; but whatever the causes of the dispersal, the government must urgently stop the haemorrhaging before more states are ensnared.