Category: Sunday

  • SNAPSONG 223

    SNAPSONG 223

    All hail NEPA Nigeria’s God of Darkness

    The bond between Nigeria and  Darkness 

         Only the drastic word can break.

    One minute of flimsy flashes

         Then, a thousand hours of lightless groping

    Wingless fans mock our misery

         From powerless ceilings

    The aircon coughed into silence

         Many unhappy seasons ago

    Failing factories feed our hunger

         Our laptops run on the heat

    Read Also: FULL LIST: Top 10 African countries with largest military aircraft fleet as of January 2026

    From our feverish groins.

         With the rays of the kindly moon

    We pen the nation’s epics

         While libraries and laboratories suffocate

    In the lampless anguish of our benighted Academies.

         So wonderfully endowed, we count our blessings

    Halfway through the surgical task

         A medieval darkness engulfs the theatre

    The surgeon’s scalpel veers beyond the veins

         Close by, reeking mortuaries with their restless doors

    At our ultramodern airports

         Darkness taxes faster

    Than the speed of light: blind landing gambles

         Announce the welcome to our Blackout Country

    •Formerly published on July 7, 2024; compelled into re-use here by the persistence of the same Nigerian problem.

    NEPA: National Electric Power Authority; now re-named Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN)

  • Beyond trial of coup plotters

    Beyond trial of coup plotters

    Last week, the federal government finally announced its readiness to constitute military judicial panels to try some 16 coup plotters who late last year allegedly planned to overthrow the government. Their civilian accomplices, still unnumbered and identities undisclosed, will also be arraigned sometime later. The plot, military investigators revealed, involved an almost total decapitation of the country’s leadership in a manner that gave indications that Nigerian soldiers have forgotten how to plan coups. While the law will almost certainly be applied to its fullest in the trial, the plot itself presents a few lessons to the government, the military, and the people.

    The first lesson applies to the military. The last time a successful coup was planned and executed in Nigeria was actually in August 1985 by Gen. Ibrahim Babangida. The April 1990 Maj. Gideon Orkar coup failed disastrously, and the November 1993 so-called coup against the Ernest Shonekan-led interim government was not really a coup in any sense of the word, and was inspired by the courts which had declared the administration illegal. A Lagos High Court headed by Justice Dolapo Akinsanya had in November 1993 declared the Interim National Government headed by Chief Shonekan as ‘illegal and void’. Seven days later, Gen. Sani Abacha forced the illegal administrator’s resignation. And so, forty years after their last successful coup, ambitious military adventurers may have completely forgotten the dynamics of coup-making.

    The Nigerian military has also never successfully executed a coup inspired by one region against another. The January 1966 coup led by mainly Igbo officers failed despite eliminating many political actors and overthrowing the Northern-led federal administration, while the retaliatory July 1966 coup merely restored power into the hands of northerners. In addition, the coup against Gen. Yakubu Gowon was led by his own kinsmen, while the one against Shehu Shagari was also led by his kinsmen, and the one against Muhammadu Buhari was again led by his kinsmen. How the 16 coup plotters of 2025 misread the dynamics of coup-making in Nigeria by leading a group of northern officers to attempt to overthrow a southern president may in fact corroborate the findings by military investigators that the 2025 coup mastermind failed promotion examinations. In other words the plotters were not bright and could not smartly interpret Nigeria’s historical and political circumstances. Had they succeeded in decapitating the administration, it is unlikely they would have been able to manage the aftermaths, regardless of how many thousands poured into the streets to welcome them.

    A third lesson offers itself so clearly to the plotters that it is difficult to explain how they missed it. Quite apart from the internal logic of Nigerian coups aligning with ethnic consanguinity, the only two successful coups ever executed in the country came at a time when the population had not exploded to the level it is today, at over 200 million. How on earth did the plotters hope to manage such an explosive mix of people, and with how many troops, and at a time when the country is besieged on all sides by insurgents, bandits and self-determination forces? And, worse, how would they hope to accommodate intensely fragmented and fratricidal forces all over the country when democracy itself was struggling to gain and retain control? Contemporary West African coup affairs should have lent some lessons to the Nigerian plotters. Among the West African countries where successful or failed coups have taken place, none of them is considerably larger than Lagos State in population. Burkina Faso’s population is about 23.5m; Niger Republic, 27m; Mali, 24.5m; Guinea, 15m; and Benin Republic, 14.5m.

    Read Also: FULL LIST: Top 10 African countries with largest military aircraft fleet as of January 2026

    It was not just incompetence that propelled the Nigerian plotters; their sanity should also be examined. Yes, they may be fit to stand trial, but it may in fact be necessary to find out how their minds worked or failed to work. That other coup plotters succeeded in some parts of West Africa does not mean that they would succeed in Nigeria regardless of its huge population and combustible ethnic mix. Did they forget that the January 1966 coup also attracted initial welcome in many parts of the North, only to collapse later when ethnic suspicion and rivalry issues kicked in? The bigger lesson for the military and adventurous soldiers is to do self-introspection on how easily susceptible they are to misreading the noise and incitement on social media or even the instigation by politicians grieving over lost elections. There were indications that those who investigated last year’s coup plot found out that the plotters misread signals from the populace. The plotters believed that the fiery rhetoric on social and mainstream media as well as the street protests against economic hardship easily amounted to wholesale disaffection with the government. It is true that as the new administration’s economic reforms began, hunger and other forms of sufferings also exploded; but many sensible analysts, economists and politicians understood that in order to make an omelette, egg had to be broken. However, beguiled public commentators ignorant of the scope of the economic troubles bequeathed the new administration in 2023 simply absolved the previous administration of blame, heaped all the troubles on the new government, and began whooping for coup or revolution, whichever came first.

    The people and the government also have lessons to learn from the coup plot tragedy. It is bewildering that politicians, the media, and diverse commentators hitched on the agitation bandwagon to attempt to rewrite the country’s electoral laws after the elections by denouncing the provision of simple majority and 25 percent of two-thirds of the states, and also discrediting both the vote count in general as well as the eventual winner. They then campaigned openly and shamelessly for coup or revolution. Meanwhile, apart from being aware that some soldiers were probably listening, they also instigated children to man barricades, waved foreign flags of repressive and brutal foreign governments, and even readied themselves to tolerate and endure the collapse of democracy. It was, therefore, not surprising that eventually a group of soldiers hearkened to their cries and tried incompetently to unseat the administration. What of the people who spoke daggers on the social and traditional media? What absolution can they plead? In contrast, imagine if the First Republic had not been terminated by a coup. Imagine if the Second Republic had also not been terminated. More than four times after every coup the country had had to reboot, and each time, it had always encountered the same problems it tried to wish away or abridge.

    It is too early to determine how the military tribunal would judge the plotters, or whether the true motives of the plotters would be exposed during trial. They may not give the tribunal or the public a window into their fears, whether if they had achieved partial success or even full success they could hold the country together. The country may also never know whether their private grievances or lust for power prompted their ill-fated adventure, or whether they harboured any noble motives for the country’s greatness and had a great and tested programme of social, economic and political salvation. What will be known or passed on to the public will probably be the extent of each plotter’s involvement and a confirmation of how they hoped to execute their plans. They will also probably reveal their financiers and indicate how they wished to constitute their government. As for the aftermaths of the coup, had they carried it out, they were probably too naïve to dwell on it or care.

    It is also unlikely that the coup plotters would have nursed the ambition to overthrow the government if they didn’t think they would be lionised. The factor of incitement should be emphasised in the trial to serve as a lesson to those who think it is chic to indulge in all manner of ranting and fiery rhetoric on social media in the name of free speech. Unrestrained speech, it is now clear, sometimes produces terrible consequences. Calling for a revolution or a coup is equivalent to calling for the overthrow of the constitution. The agitators cannot, therefore, turn round to plead the protection of a constitution they wish to destroy. By not calling to account those who agitate in the media for the overthrow of the constitution, the government enables the subversive campaign to continue relentlessly, while some misled soldiers begin to harbour foolish thoughts as to the practicability of seizing power by force, regardless of the terrible consequences for stability and national unity. Already, some political leaders have begun wetting the ground to germinate chaos by suggesting that the 2027 elections would be free only if the opposition won.

  • ADC’s 50 wise, disputatious men

    ADC’s 50 wise, disputatious men

    It has taken nearly seven months for the coalition of opposition forces herded into the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to get round to addressing what they plan to do should they win the presidency in 2027. Last Wednesday, they announced the constitution of a 50-member committee to fashion out what is, theoretically speaking, their response to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The committee will be led by a triumvirate of familiar faces: octogenarian and former Edo governor John Odigie-Oyegun, Pat Utomi, and Bolaji Abdullahi. The 50, already dubbed wise men and women, will be inaugurated in Abuja tomorrow. According to a press release by the party, the committee is expected to “articulate a clear, coherent, and credible policy direction that reflects the aspirations of Nigerians and positions the ADC as a serious alternative platform for responsible leadership and national renewal.”

    On what basis, therefore, did the party, which was controversially ‘taken’ from its former owners last June and rebranded, embark on recruitment of new members since last June? Founded in 2005 as the Alliance for Democratic Change by Ralph Nwosu but registered in 2006 as the African Democratic Congress (ADC), it had set up shop as a political brothel and fielded presidential candidates every election cycle since 2007, with Prof. Utomi as the first candidate. It was thus unsurprising that ensconced in so much pruriency, nearly all its past presidential candidates were hysterical in their campaigns. Last year, former vice president Atiku Abubakar led the effort to coax Mr Nwosu into early retirement. And with the inauguration of a policy and manifesto committee, it is assumed that the old identity of the party, including its nebulous ideology of ‘anti-corruption and good governance’ and amateurish slogan of ‘arise and shine’, will be completely erased. Prof. Utomi, the party’s first candidate in 2007, is not expected to wince at the erasure of the identity of a party he once took advantage of.

    Read Also: Nigeria on ‘healing journey’ to $1trn economy by 2030 – Presidency

    Clearly, the new ADC leaders think the old identity of the party is no longer tenable. Remaking the party, probably in their own image, is thus the natural thing to do, assuming their disparate worldviews can be successfully coalesced into a coherent whole. The need for ADC rebirth, however, speaks inadvertently to the stridency of their politics and priorities as party leaders and early joiners. Their emphasis in the past months, not to say their sing-song, had been how to win the presidency, their main and unalterable fixation. Little or nothing was heard about their vision and expectations for the states and local government areas. Hence there were no policy frameworks or manifesto. Worse, even far less had been discussed about their vision for democracy, which they paid hypocritical and incomplete attention to, and for Nigeria as a whole, which they all seem eager to betray or trade for private gain. In no part of their public statements so far have they once alluded to anything noble or dignified about the country and its people. Instead they have obtruded upon the people as their champions, approximated their yearnings, no matter how vaguely and inexpertly, and positioned themselves as the people’s catharsis over Nigeria’s economic and social crises.

    Despite their best efforts to conceal their real intentions, ADC leaders flocked together and recruited hundreds of aggrieved followers to achieve only one purpose – defeat the APC in 2027 and win the presidency. It’s all about power and office, and perhaps secondarily to avenge themselves on their implacable enemies in the APC. How they justify their membership of a hijacked party while it was shorn of a manifesto or policy direction is hard to fathom. But the new ADC leaders are not incapable of doing the extraordinarily unthinkable. If challenged, they will want to walk on water. And having scaled the first hurdle of assembling together ageing plutocrats sworn to overthrowing the ruling party, and having ensured that they possessed enough venom to fuel their objectives, they have now turned to the generally menial task of writing manifestos and programmes. But observe critically how scrupulously they avoid any mention of ideology. They remind themselves of how fleet-footed they have been in defecting from one party to the other, not once, not twice, but many times. Their restless search was in fact devoted entirely to achieving their life’s ambition, nothing else. If one political vehicle proves incapacitated, they simply hop onto the next available vehicle with Machiavellian glee.

    The 50 ‘wise men’ may not end up writing a great founding document, as indeed they seem incapable of doing, and must find ways to graft some newfangled and untested ideas on the old ones they are discarding, but they will nevertheless produce a document of one hue or the other. It is, however, certain that the document will not stand the test of time, given the variegated experiences, backgrounds, and motivations of the drafters. A few of the wise men and women may still opt out of the caucus before the drafting is done, as indeed one has already done citing irreconcilable differences. But they will delicately sustain some form of unity in order to produce and publish a document that will be impressively high-sounding, one that elicits knowing winks from skeptical intellectuals but masks the party leaders’ ignoble intentions. In the end, no one will really care about the tone or tenor of the document, not the rabble they will co-opt into their column, and certainly not the ageing, unideological and combative politicians in the twilight of their careers or close to expiration. It will be just a piece of dated paper produced by a group of vengeful politicians accustomed, like their rivals in other parties, to fooling all the people all the time.

  • APC presidential running mate speculations

    APC presidential running mate speculations

    There were no indications that the All Progressives Congress (APC) ever contemplated modifying the formula it adopted to win the 2023 presidential election. But in January, and out of the blue, speculations arose that the party might be amenable to a Muslim-Christian presidential ticket for the 2027 election. After about a week of reportorial indulgence, the party put the lie to the rumours. In addition, months earlier last year, a media feeding frenzy also occurred over whether Vice President Kashim Shettima might be dropped from the 2027 ticket. Again, it took the president affirming on Mr Shettima’s birthday how loyal and diligent and complementary the vice president had been to douse the speculations. On a distant tomorrow, other speculations might yet arise. It comes with the territory. It’s all politics.

    Read Also: FULL LIST: Top 10 African countries with largest military aircraft fleet as of January 2026

    What is evident so far is that in 2023 the APC proved and probably established for all time the following presidential elections formulae:  (a) for a southern Muslim candidate to stand any chance of winning the presidential election, he will need a northern Muslim running mate; (b) for a northern Muslim candidate to win, he will be sailing near the wind to take a southern Muslim running mate; (c) for a southern Christian candidate to win, he will need a northern Muslim running mate; and (d) for a northern Christian candidate to win, as tough as that might be, he needs a southern Muslim running mate. APC merely and sensibly adopted MKO Abiola’s tactful and serendipitous 1993 presidential election formula. It was idle speculation, indeed childish controversy, to suggest that the APC would discard a formula that has worked well over two dispensations.

  • Atiku, Obi call for truce

    Atiku, Obi call for truce

    Shortly after former Anambra State governor and Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate in the 2023 election, Peter Obi, migrated to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) on December 31, 2025, supporters of former vice president Atiku Abubakar began assailing him for eyeing the presidential ticket of a party whose takeover was inspired and financed by someone else. For weeks, both camps in the ADC, a previously existing but fringe party chosen by a coalition of opposition forces to wage the 2027 electoral battle, have engaged in heated exchange of words, insulting and bruising each other in anticipation of the primary to determine the party’s standard-bearer. The reason is that the two gladiators, Alhaji Atiku and Mr Obi, know that the 2027 poll will be their last, but feared that they won’t get the traction they received in 2023.

    While Mr Obi, whose supporters resent supporting any other person for the presidency save their champion, had been fairly reticent about the scurrilous Obidients, Alhaji Atiku appeared to have had enough of the heated exchange to post on social media last week of the need for supporters of the ADC presidential aspirants to stop the brickbat. According to the former vice president, “Anyone who insults Obi or Atiku does not mean well for the leaders, the Coalition ADC and for Nigeria and Nigerians. The only people who benefit from such a civil war are the APC urban bandits who want to maintain the satanic status quo. We are better together!” This admonition came on the heels of some Obi supporters damning the impatience of Atiku supporters who denounce the intolerance and irreverence of the vulgar Obidients.

    Around the same time Alhaji Atiku posted his admonition, the convener of the League of Northern Democrats, Umar Ardo, also a fellow Adamawan, told Channels Tv, that Mr Obi was nothing but a pretender to the throne. According to him: “Well, the ADC, as currently constituted, if it goes for primaries a hundred times, Atiku will win a hundred times. There is absolutely no doubt about that. How Peter Obi and his supporters react is what will determine the election. I am not saying that Peter Obi cannot be the candidate of the party; however, he can only be the candidate of the party if Atiku steps down.” Mr Ardo’s confidence infuriated the Obidients, and they doubled down on their precondition for joining forces with the ADC, which is that they expect their champion to get the ticket for the 2027 poll, or nothing else. Mr Obi, they exclaimed, was the only one fit and modern and electable for the presidency.

    READ ALSO: Gov Abba Yusuf’s convoluted defection

    Alhaji Atiku is, however, a more consummate politician. He knows many things the naïve and exuberant Obi supporters don’t. When the former LP candidate was still trying to make up his mind which political platform to use, Alhaji Atiku quietly and efficiently organised the takeover of the ADC and imbued it with life. With his men positioned in key organs of the party, he forbade them from talking about any predetermined presidential ticket. Their singsong was that the ADC needed to be built first before talking of candidacies. Of course he knew there were talks of matching Mr Obi with former Kaduna State governor Nasir el-Rufai for the presidential ticket, or failing that, matching Mr Obi with the proud and domineering former Kano governor and NNPP leader Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso for the ticket. And he knew much more that in the Southeast or anywhere for that matter, if push came to shove, ADC members always knew on which side their bread was buttered.

    So Alhaji Atiku sits grimly and contemplatively in near anonymity, poised for the big day when the party would make its choice for the ticket. To him, the priority was to get Mr Obi into the party, and then after that, the bridge. Last December, frustrated that the LP was engrossed in litigations, and fearing he could be left stranded, for he was a joiner not a founder or builder, Mr Obi finally defected and directed his men to join the grand coalition. But he did not burn his bridges. He left room for retreat if it became inescapable, for he knew that there was not a cat in hell’s chance he would be given the ticket either on a platter or even if he schemed for it with all he has. Above all, the former Anambra governor knew that any opposition to Alhaji Atiku would be half-hearted, ultimately doomed by regional permutations and financial necessities. After all, despite his misgivings, Mr Obi knows he has really nothing to campaign with: no divisive religious themes, and no convincing proof he has a clue how the economy works beyond mouthing comparative statistics of global development.

    The former vice president has now called a truce, and Mr Obi has little appetite for any abusive exchanges. But at bottom, their edgy supporters, particularly the implacable Obidients holding Mr Obi hostage to their utopian ideals, have made up their minds which way to go. They will keep a tentative truce; but with their hands on the trigger and their guns cocked, they will fire at will when any provocation arises. However, with both men in the same creaky boat, and sailing midstream in a river with billowing waves, it would be insanity to attempt to bail out. As Mr Ardo mused, the ADC fortune will be determined by how the supporters of both Alhaji Atiku and Mr Obi react when the chips are down and the presidential ticket secured. The alternative is too grim to contemplate.

  • The Kaduna (Kajuru) abductions

    The Kaduna (Kajuru) abductions

    Last Sunday’s abduction of some 177 worshippers from three churches in Kurmin Wali community in Kajuru local government area of Kaduna State illustrates once again the loopholes in Nigeria’s security paradigm. The abductions took place on Sunday, but it was not until Tuesday before the authorities acknowledged that a crime took place. Did no one lodge a report to the nearest police station? And if they did, why were senior police divisions, local government officials and state authorities not immediately notified? By initially denying the crime, state and local government authorities seemed mortifyingly unaware of any attacks and abductions in Kajuru.

    Unfortunately, much time was lost bickering over whether a crime occurred or not, rather than immediately activating measures to intercept the kidnappers. As late as Thursday, however, according to some indigenes of the area, the kidnappers were observed travelling on foot in the same general area. Though some 11 people reportedly escaped from their abductors, some 166 are thought to remain in the custody of the criminals who are clearly having a hard time moving so many people at once, and on foot. Why can’t they be monitored and isolated?

    READ ALSO; Poor pastor or powerful pastor?

    Not only must states redesign their security architecture and crime reporting methods, they must also brace up for embarrassment now and again as the next election cycle draws near. The Defence minister Christopher Musa hails from the state and is a member of the ethnic stock of the victims. Only recently he publicly condemned the act of negotiating with terrorists. The terrorists and anguished public will watch to see what happens, especially when the kidnappers were quoted as mocking the affected communities for reposing too much hope in security agents. What is clear is that if the response time to these crimes is not shortened, the nation and the security forces will be repeatedly embarrassed.

  • At bay in Kurmin Wali

    At bay in Kurmin Wali

    Ungoverned and ungovernable spaces proliferate in some dark axis of lawlessness in the nation. This is in spite of the bravest efforts of the security forces and the proactive onslaught of the new Minister of Defence, General Christopher Musa, who has declared war on terrorism and its sponsors. Once again, the authorities have been embarrassed by a brazen act of state-baiting. It took the law enforcement agencies almost two days to acknowledge that the latest incident of mass abduction actually took place. This was after a spate of denials during which time they gave a firm rebuff to enquiries suggesting that something nasty and unpleasant had taken place in the arid, dusty bowels of Kurmin Wali in the Kajuru Local Government Council of Kaduna State. Tired and miffed by it all, the police and the local authorities had apparently decided to take up residence in a Cuckoo land of fiction and eerie denial. They finally caved in to overwhelming reality when denying the obvious was no longer profitable or honorable.

        One can understand and appreciate the fear and apprehension of the local authorities and the security agencies. But this could not have been the way to go, particularly given the scale and magnitude of the mass abduction and the fact that in a globalized world, news, particularly bad news, tends to travel with supersonic speed and far and wide, too. By Tuesday, international media agencies were already beaming images of the terrible mass eviction. The few solitary livestock remaining, particularly the heedless hens and stranded dogs, trembled in fright as they wandered aimlessly about as if humanity had become the greatest enemy of domestic animals.

        The terrorists struck while church service was in progress. Nothing could have been more helpful to the narrative of religious persecution.  They had broken through the massive iron bar put in place by terrified worshippers as they barricaded themselves in. They then proceeded to herd the worshippers out of the premises to join others from adjoining churches. From there, they were marched out, irrespective of age, sex and health, through a dusty track that led out to the fearsome forest. For a country which had become the cynosure of the whole world because of deepening cultural schisms and orchestrated religious altercations, a country that has come under the crosshairs of Donald Trump’s evangelical expedition, this must be as concerning as it can get. It appears that if care is not taken, some people are bent on making the entire nation not just ungovernable but practically unlivable.

    READ ALSO; Poor pastor or powerful pastor?

      By Wednesday afternoon, Al-Jazeera, through its intrepid correspondent, was already beaming horrific images from the site and scene of carnage and economic castration. It was a classic abode of the wretched of the earth; a haunting snapshot of the last vestiges of a misbegotten feudal civilization. Cowering and shivering with fright and premonition, the few remaining habitants had gathered their miserable belongings together, ready to flee but with nowhere to go. They let it be known that the last school in the area closed shop several years earlier. No police outpost, no health facilities, no government presence. The dazed and distraught villagers claimed that they had earlier sighted the terrorists openly marching up and down the entire village before they struck. There were no authorities to report to, or to alert.

      This is where the idea of “ungoverned” space began to assume a dark, ironic hue. It is the state that has evaporated. There are ungoverned spaces because there are ungovernable governments. In a classic instance of what is known as chutzpah, the bandits are demanding from the villagers nineteen motor cycles they claimed to have lost or misplaced in previous raids and a tidy sum as reparation. Where are these miserable people going to get the money? Obviously they have been paying ransom through their nose. Chutzpah is when a man murders his own parents only to inform the court that he ought to be set free on the grounds that he was an orphan.

    We must pity our friend, Uba Sani, the governor of Kaduna State, who has shown more compassion and considerable emotional intelligence in administering the affairs of this amorphous conurbation bristling with geopolitical tensions, ethnic polarizations and religious disharmonies. Just as the story of the mass-abduction was unfolding, Sani’s political adversaries opened another political front for him by circulating a fake memo purportedly broadening and widening the succession base of the Zazzau emirate by prising it away from Fulani domination. It doesn’t get more explosively regicidal than that, and it shows the extent of the ethnic, religious and cultural fracture in the state.

      The Kurmin Wali abduction has returned the issue of terror-containment and the implications for the nation to the front burner. Curiously but hardly assuring is Governor Uba Sani’s assertion that the abducted would regain their freedom in due course thus inadvertently letting slip a pattern of abduction and ransom payment almost inevitably followed by more abduction. This is a pattern that cannot be sustained given the growing international encirclement of the nation’s ethnic and religious categories and the ultimate threat to food security in a situation where farmers can no longer go to their farm. With the oil market about to be saturated by Venezuelan oil as instigated by Donald Trump, government revenues will dip further putting grave pressure on the ability of government to finance its budget.

      Despite General Musa’s vehement denunciations and his brave attempts to walk his talk about not giving any quarters to terrorists, there is still a dichotomy, a wild oscillation between outright kinetic approach and the non-kinetic approach which favours negotiations and quiet ransom. We have not heard the last from the agents of appeasement. What appears to be a decisive victory for the adherents of kinetic approach which culminated in General Musa’s recall after being dropped as Chief of Defence Staff to serve as Minister of Defence after his predecessor was shunted aside may not be what it seems. It is a mere reshuffling of the sitting arrangement to placate certain power sectors who might have been unsettled by the mode and manner of the removal of the former military brass hat. A power struggle subsists. Musa may huff and puff, but the real locus of power and troops deployment lies somewhere else.

       The buck stops at the table of the president, and it is a very tough call indeed. Tinubu has to combine statecraft with political sagacity and the wily management of electoral fortunes, particularly in an electoral season where nothing is guaranteed and where the path to a second term is strewn with so many political landmines despite the hegemonic domination of the ruling party and its octopoidal reach and range. By popular consensus, Tinubu is an unrivalled political strategist, past master in the art of wheeling and dealing and a clinical finisher when it comes to the defenestration of opponents.

       But nowhere has it been said that the former Lagos State Governor is a military genius and an enabler of stunning defeats on the field of battle. Only few men in human history have been able to combine the two outstanding gifts of military genius and political prodigy. The greatest military commanders have been known to trip over elementary political calculations while the greatest political geniuses often wilt at the prospects of massive bloodletting.  From all appearances,  Tinubu  is a man who abhors sectarian violence in all its manifestations and  recoils at the prospects of mindless bigotry. Going forward, this politicized sensitivity and reluctance to engage in violent confrontation may well turn out a major handicap as he squares up to those whose agenda is to torment and brutalize the nation into submission to their antediluvian vision of human society.

    The brutal irony of postcolonial Africa, particularly its traumatised and embattled multi-ethnic, multi-cultural and multi-economic conflations where the personalization of power is the norm, is that we often ask and expect our rulers to be everything at once. Sometimes, it is the rulers themselves who insist on being everything. This is what has made the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and Libya to topple over into actual military confrontation.

       In post-military Nigeria, despite the fact that General Obasanjo did very well in the remit of demilitarization handed over to him by his subordinates  it was when going forward to deepening and expanding the democratic space that the Owu-born warrior came a sad cropper. Till date the baleful overcast of Obasanjo’s anti-democratic debacle still hangs over the nation. If only the poor man had limited himself to one eventful, nation-shaking term which forbidding symbolic aura would still have been with us as veritable lodestar. Trying to cover his track, he committed more grievous infractions. His loss of prestige and sacral respectability is also the nation’s loss.

      President Tinubu will do very well to take some historical lessons to heart.  This is a different order of battle from the immediate post-military epoch. The master-drummers below the reef and the puppeteers orchestrating the spate of terrorism and abductions in the north of the nation will soon appear in the horizon to name their price. If the president succumbs to their blackmail, they would have succeeded in making the country ungovernable and probably unlivable. But it will be foolish to imagine that they will stop until something gives, having succeeded in blackmailing the nation by their malevolent antics. This is because there is an inflationary dynamic to the logic of terrorism and hostage-taking. The more you give in, the more it demands until there is nothing to give again.

       A gifted nation like this, which is supposed to be the Mecca and magnetic hub for the Black race, cannot just continue to exist on paper. It must be made to mean something. The powers that be must brace up for confrontation with the demons confronting the nation. This insurgency in the north has gone on for too long and has already consumed some of the best flowers of the nation. A situation in which non-state actors and anti-state urchins hold the country to ransom for decades can no longer be treated as a normal occurrence or as a passing fancy. 

      The president must put in place an emergency advisory council comprising of retired war veterans, masters of asymmetrical warfare and experts in jungle neutralization in order to halt the drift into anarchy and anomie. We can seek international assistance. On the political front, this may well be the time to set in motion the convocation of a conference seeking a confederal consensus for the nation which will allow the various components to work out their internal contradictions to their satisfaction. This is the only way sanity can be re-imposed on the current dysfunctional bricolage.  

  • The Battle of Agindingbi

    The Battle of Agindingbi

    Okon falls to Mama Igosun

    It was the longest day, and the cannons of Kiriji were already booming. Even before commencing on the great march on Mama Igosun’s redoubt, Okon was already dreaming of sweet victory and sweeter revenge. “I go tie up dem Yoruba witch as dem dey do for Akwa Ibom. Dem small children go pepper am and im go confess. Dem go know say na dem yeye Yoruba people dey trouble dis kontri. After dat na dem OPC house I go head make I go finish dat were man who come beat Okon just like dat”.

     After Okon was forcibly dislodged from the house in a civil commotion that lasted a whole day, he had taken up residence with Baba Lekki who promised him a medical concoction that would make him invisible to any human-being.  But the crazy boy still had his doubts about Baba Lekki and his bogus charm. As he evaded Baba’s lunging walking stick, Okon suddenly rounded on the old crook.

       “Baba as una dey chase me, dat means you dey see me? So when dem medicine go start work, abi na Yoruba wayo?” Okon demanded.

        “Na by remote control I go trigger am. I get dem remote control from dem Agbanrere (Giraffe) neck and dem buffalo horn”, Baba replied.

         “So, how one go know say one don become spirit?” Okon pressed.

         “When you hit dem LASTMA people and dem no reply”, Baba answered.

     “Baba  wetin if dem charm no work?”, Okon asked the ageing scoundrel.

          “Foolish boy, he come be like the case of dem apprentice pilot who dey ask him oga wetin go happen if parachute no open. Na dat one dem dey call jumping to conclusion”, Baba Lekki retorted with a sinister smile.

         “Baba, walahi, if dis yeye juju no work, as you come draw blood from my head, naim I go draw blood from una mouth”, Okon snarled as Baba Lekki tried to hush him away. By now, Okon knew he was on his own. But he was determined to press his luck.  Very soon, Okon arrived at the sight of an uncompleted building that had just collapsed. It was a scene out of the apocalypse. While people were wailing, open looting was also going on. His sense of natural dignity and justice affronted, Okon blocked the path of a neer do well. “No be dem dead people property you dey thief so?” Okon demanded. Before the mammoth urchin could give a reply, Okon dealt him a resounding slap on the face.

       “Allah wa kabr, awon omo ogun orun dide”, the illiterate vagabond screamed and fled.

    READ ALSO: Gov Abba Yusuf’s convoluted defection

       By now, Okon had arrived around the neighborhood. He was now convinced that the charm was working and that he was truly invisible and invincible. Earlier, he had accosted a policeman who was openly taking bribe and dealt him a blow to the plexus. The rogue cop fled screaming “Chineke dem ghost from Atan don destroy me”.

        But the first sign that all might not go well on the home front came soon. There was Mama Igosun dressed like a local hunter swigging directly from a bottle of Seaman’s schnapps even as she swung to a 1930 classic by Denge in honour of one Maggie Macaulay.

    As Okon made to sweep past her thinking that all this was an elaborate bluff, the Amazon blocked his path and stated cursing his ancestors.

        “Ekolo, abi wetin you call yourself, you no dey greet your mother for dem village?” she hollered as she tried to collar Okon.

         “Move”, Okon thundered as he sidestepped. Mama Igosun was so taken aback by the vehemence and ferocity that she tripped and fell. Okon rushed towards her room.

        “Hen hen, o ti lo gbagbara, abi?” the old woman screamed as she sprang after Okon. Overconfidence overtook the crazy boy. Before he could look back, the irate woman dealt him a blow on the back with a frying pan.  The effect of the blow was electric. Okon wound up like a stung millipede and upon recovering his senses, he took to his heels with Mama Igosun in hot pursuit.

    An old classic republished by popular demand.

  • How power, politics policy flow in Tinubu’s carefully sequenced presidency

    How power, politics policy flow in Tinubu’s carefully sequenced presidency

    Having returned to Abuja from Abu Dhabi late on the previous Saturday, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu wasted no time returning to his desk at the State House. There was no ceremonial pause, no indulgence in the fatigue that naturally follows a demanding international outing. Instead, the President slipped seamlessly back into the rhythms of governance, setting things straight and pressing ahead with what has increasingly become his defining pursuit: the steady, deliberate construction of a functional Nigerian state.

    From Sunday onward, the week unfolded as a study in motion and method. Day after day, sometimes stretching late into the night, the President worked through meetings, briefs, and decisions with a tempo that suggested not urgency, but clarity. What stood out was not merely the volume of activity, but the way events appeared to align; each one flowing naturally into another, connected by an internal logic that made the entire sequence feel intentional rather than accidental.

    To the casual observer, this symmetry might have seemed coincidental. To the more attentive watcher of power, it revealed something else entirely: a presidency running on planning, timing, and an instinctive understanding of political sequence. In a system often criticised for improvisation and reactive governance, the Tinubu Presidency appears increasingly choreographed, not in the theatrical sense, but in the disciplined manner of a long-distance runner who knows exactly when to conserve energy and when to surge.

    Two meetings during the week captured this rhythm perfectly.

    On Monday, the President received the Governor of Kano State, Abba Kabir Yusuf, in a closed-door session at the State House. By Thursday, a similar audience was granted to the Governor of Oyo State, Seyi Makinde. On the surface, these were routine engagements between the President and subnational leaders. In context, however, they carried layered political meaning.

    Both visitors are governors from opposition parties. Both arrived in Abuja amid intense political noise. In Yusuf’s case, weeks of speculation had trailed him; whispers of a possible defection from the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), countered by denials from his political mentor and rival narratives from party loyalists. In Makinde’s case, the controversy was more direct: public remarks distancing himself from the President’s 2027 re-election ambition, rooted in his fallout with former ally and current FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike. Yet, when the President received them, none of that noise appeared to matter.

    READ ALSO: Gov Abba Yusuf’s convoluted defection

    What mattered was that Kano had security and infrastructure concerns to raise. What mattered was that Oyo’s governor wanted to discuss national and subnational governance. In both instances, Tinubu listened. No grandstanding. No visible irritation. No partisan gatekeeping. The optics that emerged; smiles, cordial exchanges, relaxed body language, told their own story.

    It was a subtle but powerful message: this President does not confuse politics with governance.

    Makinde would later articulate it plainly. “The President is the President of Nigeria, not the President of APC,” he said, stressing that issues such as insecurity, poverty alleviation and citizens’ welfare had no party colouration. Tinubu did not need to rebut or amplify that statement. His actions already had. By opening his doors to opposition governors, one flirting with defection, the other publicly ruling it out, he projected a leadership style anchored in confidence rather than insecurity.

    In a political environment often defined by grudges and zero-sum calculations, this posture matters. It portrays Tinubu as a leader comfortable in his mandate, secure enough to engage critics and rivals alike, and mature enough to understand that national cohesion is built not by exclusion, but by conversation.

    This magnanimity, however, does not dilute his focus. If anything, it sharpens it.

    While the political class dissected the symbolism of those meetings, the President was already moving on another front, one that cuts to the heart of Nigeria’s economic recovery. On Thursday, Tinubu received the global leadership of Shell Plc at the State House. The outcome was not symbolism, but substance.

    What emerged from that meeting was a clear signal to global capital: Nigeria is back in the race.

    By approving the gazetting of targeted, investment-linked incentives for Shell’s Bonga South West deep-offshore project, the President demonstrated the same strategic thinking that defined his engagements in Abu Dhabi. These were not blanket concessions or fiscal giveaways. As Tinubu himself stressed, they were “ring-fenced and investment-linked,” designed to unlock new capital, drive incremental production, deepen local content, and generate jobs, without eroding government revenues.

    The numbers tell their own story. Since the issuance of executive orders to liberalise the oil and gas sector, Shell alone has invested over $7 billion in Nigeria in just over a year. Now, buoyed by renewed policy clarity and regulatory certainty, the company is signalling fresh investments of up to $20 billion in the coming years. Projects like Bonga North, shallow-water gas developments, and the proposed Bonga South West field are not abstract concepts; they translate into fabrication yards coming back to life, thousands of direct and indirect jobs, long-term foreign exchange inflows, and decades of sustained government revenue.

    What makes this sequence remarkable is not just the scale of the investment, but the timing.

    Only days earlier, Tinubu had been in Abu Dhabi, advancing Nigeria’s economic and diplomatic interests through high-level engagements and agreements. Barely had the jet touched down in Abuja than another economic gain was being engineered at home. Different venues, same objective. Different partners, same philosophy. Whether in foreign capitals or the Presidential Villa, Abuja, the President’s focus remains constant: pushing Nigeria forward.

    This is where the threads of the week converge.

    The meetings with Yusuf and Makinde underscored a leadership open to dialogue, unthreatened by dissent, and attentive to the complexities of Nigeria’s plural politics. The engagement with Shell revealed a President equally relentless in economic statecraft, translating reforms into real investment flows. Together, they painted a picture of a presidency operating on multiple planes at once; political stability on one hand, economic expansion on the other, each reinforcing the other.

    It is easy to underestimate the discipline required to sustain this balance. Easier still to miss the planning beneath the surface. But when events line up with such regularity; opposition governors welcomed with goodwill, investors reassured with policy certainty, reforms yielding tangible dividends, it becomes harder to dismiss the pattern as coincidence.

    Tinubu’s Presidency, now firmly into its stride, is beginning to resemble a long-form strategy rather than a collection of episodic reactions. The reforms initiated early in his tenure are no longer abstract policy statements; they are bearing fruit, attracting capital, and reshaping perceptions. The political engagements are no longer defensive maneuvers; they are expressions of confidence.

    Beyond the headline-grabbing optics of bipartisan politics and boardroom economics, the President’s week was also stitched together by quieter, steadier acts that revealed the full texture of governance; ritual, empathy, symbolism, and institutional housekeeping.

    It began on Sunday with a pause for recognition. President Tinubu marked the 60th birthday of the Comptroller-General of Customs, Adewale Adeniyi, not as a ceremonial courtesy but as an affirmation of reform. In praising Adeniyi’s professionalism and the recalibration of the Customs Service under his watch, the President signalled once again his preference for results over rhetoric and institutions that work over institutions that merely exist.

    Monday bore a heavier emotional weight. Tinubu mourned the passing of Kano business patriarch, Alhaji Bature Abdulaziz, acknowledging the loss of a stabilising voice in Nigeria’s trading ecosystem. In the same breath, he condemned the chilling murder of a woman and her six children in Kano, directing swift investigation and prosecution, drawing a firm moral line between the sanctity of life and the brutality that threatens it. The day also carried a continental note, as he congratulated Solid Minerals Minister, Dele Alake, on his re-election as chairman of the Africa Minerals Strategic Group, reinforcing Nigeria’s renewed assertiveness in shaping Africa’s resource future. Condolences followed for the late Chief Imam of Ilorin, Sheikh Muhammad Bashir Saliu, a bridge-builder in faith and community.

    Tuesday sustained the rhythm of empathy and affirmation: mourning Christian patriarch Moses Adegbite, while celebrating Jumoke Okoya-Thomas, both for her birthday and her elevation within Lagos’ traditional hierarchy.

    By Thursday, the President returned to institutional focus, charging the new leadership of the Federal Character Commission to act as the nation’s conscience, even as he approved key ambassadorial postings to France, the United States, and the United Kingdom, quiet but consequential moves in diplomacy.

    Friday crowned the week with symbolism and validation: a chieftaincy honour for Rep. Kafilat Ogbara, and the Olubadan’s succinct verdict, if you know where Tinubu is coming from, you will understand where he is taking Nigeria.

    In the end, the week told a simple but powerful story. Nigeria’s President is not merely reacting to events; he is sequencing them. He is not choosing between politics and economics; he is managing both with a single-minded commitment to restoration. And perhaps most tellingly, he is doing so with a calm assurance that suggests he knows exactly where the country is headed, and how each step, however different it may appear, fits into the larger design.

    That sense of order, in a system long accustomed to drift, may yet prove to be one of the most consequential reforms of all.

  • APC and the Yilwatda doctrine

    APC and the Yilwatda doctrine

    Professor Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda was elected National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC) on 24 July, 2025.  Prior to this appointment, he was a Professor of Electrical and Electronic Engineering at the Federal University of Agriculture, Makurdi, in Benue State, a Resident Electoral Commissioner for the same state, an APC governorship candidate for Plateau State, the Coordinator of the Tinubu/Shettima Presidential Campaign Council for Plateau State, and a Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development.

    In his acceptance speech as National Chairman, he said to the National Executive Committee of the party: “I pledge, without hesitation, that I will work with everybody in the party, I will unite the party, I will build the party, I will expand the party with you as the focus and the building block and the support that I will require to drive the party as needed by all of us so that we can fulfil the dream of Nigerians who have reposed their hope in the Renewed Hope Agenda.” This may be perceived as the general outline of his political article of faith or what may be called ‘The Yilwatda Doctrine’. In a number of speeches, Professor Yilwatda has defined aspects of this doctrine.

    The first aspect deals with leadership within the party in different states. In this regard, he declared on 2 January, 2026: “In all the states, … the state governors … lead the party.” In the specific case of Rivers State, he said that Governor Siminalayi Fubara, who joined APC on 9 December, 2025, is the leader of the APC, but that, in running the party, he would need to carry along other key stakeholders.

    Vice President Kasim Shettima had made a related point, at Governor Peter Mbah’s defection rally in Enugu on 14 October, 2025, when he said: “As per the APC convention and constitution, the governor is the leader of the party in the state. Your Excellency, you are now the leader of the APC family in Enugu State. I am the Vice-President, but the leader of the APC in Borno is Professor Babagana Umara Zulum. The President of the Senate is the Number 3 citizen, but the leader of the party in Akwa Ibom State is Governor Umo Eno. The Speaker of the House of Representatives is the Number 4 citizen, but the leader of the party in Kaduna State is Senator Uba Sani, the Governor of Kaduna State. We are one family tied to a common destiny.”

    READ ALSO: Gov Abba Yusuf’s convoluted defection

    As Simon Sinek put it in a 13 April, 2010 article on the logistics of leadership, “There are leaders and there are those who lead. Leaders hold a position of power or influence. Those who lead inspire us. We follow those who lead not because we have to, but because we want to. We follow those who lead not for them, but for ourselves.” Elucidating this point, Hidayat Rizvi said on 5 September, 2024, on her website: “Leaders typically hold formal positions of authority, recognized by titles and accompanied by the power to make strategic decisions. Those Who Lead, on the other hand, influence without formal authority, often inspiring teams and shaping outcomes through emotional intelligence and adaptability.”

    In Rivers State, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, is among ‘Those Who Lead’ both within his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and across parties, and he may be regarded as a special kind of “non-APC-member”. He has ceaselessly declared his commitment to the success of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the president’s second term election in 2027; he helped APC to win 20 out of 23 seats in the 30 August, 2025 Local Government elections in Rivers State; all the members of the Rivers State House of Assembly who defected to APC on 5 December, 2025 are his loyalists; and he rallied both APC and PDP chairmen to attend his “Thank you tour” which held from December 2025 to January 2026. All of these indicate that Minister Wike has the capacity to impact both the APC governorship primary and the general elections in the state in 2027.

      The Delta State Governor, Rt. Hon. Sheriff Oborevwori, who is himself a member of APC, added his perspective on the question of leadership, on 10 January, 2026, when he said to a group of elders: “I’m a governor, but I still have leaders. There is no local government [in which] I don’t have leaders. I have leaders. You cannot say because you are a governor, … you are all in all. Nooo! You must be loyal to your people, because we are just serving them.” In other words, there are leaders and there are ‘leaders’.

    Moreover, when, at the venue of the 2 October, 2018 governorship primary election of the APC in Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu was asked why he was not supporting Governor Akinwumi Ambode for a second term, he said: “I brought Ambode to the people. He was a civil servant under me. He performed very well as a civil servant. And when he showed interest in politics after, … we gave him the opportunity. I introduced him to the party. The party accepted him. He became the governor. Now, if the party … says they want either a change or they want to reaffirm his governorship through open exercise [direct primaries], if they elect him today, so be it. You know, you remain relevant as a leader if you submit yourself once in a while to what your people want.”

    Asiwaju further noted: “If the party who made me the leader of the structure in Lagos says what they want, it’s only if you have followership that you are a leader in democracy. If I look back [and] I don’t find them again, if I don’t respond to them, if I fail to accede to their request, I would have failed the leadership test. … If this house that accommodates all of us is saying we’re facing one way … we’re supporting a change …, I have to abide by that. I have no choice.” In other words, ‘Those Who Lead’ can horse and unhorse ‘Leaders’.

    The second aspect of the Yilwatda Doctrine deals with automatic tickets. On 2 January, 2026, Professor Yilwatda declared: “I’m not the person to choose people in the primary election. Everybody undergoes primary election.” This means there would be no automatic tickets for new members of the party. So, all candidates must take part in the party’s primaries. In the specific case of Governor Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State, the National Chairman said: “If Siminalayi emerges as the candidate of APC in Rivers State, I’ll stand by him. But if any other person emerges as candidate of APC in Rivers State, I’ll go with [that other person]. I go with candidates, not individuals. … So, when Sim picks a form, he’ll be an aspirant. If he emerges as a candidate, I’ll support him. If he loses, I’ll sympathise with him and go with the person that wins the primary election.”

                  This seems to be a dampener on the presumption that since Governor Fubara has defected to APC and FCT Minister Wike remains a non-member of the party, the minister’s capacity to stop Governor Fubara from securing a second term ticket has been undermined or eliminated outright, especially given the spat between Minister Wike and the National Secretary of APC, Senator Ajibola Basiru, arising from the senator’s support for Governor Fubara. In fact, just a few days ago, Professor Yilwatda’s declaration that there would be no automatic tickets was reiterated by the APC Director of Publicity, Bala Ibrahim, and an unnamed National Working Committee member, as reported in the 19 January, 2026 issue of The Punch. This means that, within the Yilwatda Doctrine, the people’s will will be supreme in candidate selection, supposedly through direct primaries, especially with the ongoing e-membership registration in the party.

    Meanwhile, the presumption of Minister Wike’s declining influence seems to have contributed to Governor Fubara’s rather unrestrained throwing of the darts of creative insults at his erstwhile benefactor. For example, through innuendos, Governor Fubara has recently called Minister Wike a rat and an ignorant barking dog. The governor had also earlier, on 11 July 2024, spoken of people who “come to the media and dance, [but] when they go behind, they cry.” This innuendo is related to Minister Wike’s disclosure in a 2 June, 2025 interview that “sometimes when I go back in my quiet moment, I play the video of speeches of the governor (Fubara), what he said, what he did to me, I weep.”

    In contrast to Governor Fubara’s applause-generating insults, Minister Wike has kept his message simple, consistent and resonant. The frequently-repeated message is that, for the 2023 governorship election in Rivers State, a mistake was made by supporting an ingrate who doesn’t keep to agreements; and that because “Agreement is agreement” and should be inviolable, Rivers State voters must not make that kind of mistake again; and so, Fubara must not get a second term as governor.

    The third article of the Yilwatda Doctrine is captured in the following declaration which he made on 21 January, 2026: “In 2027, as a party chairman, I will stand strong to defend the position that if you are not prepared to join us, you shouldn’t be given appointment. … If you know you are a technocrat, go and be a consultant, [rather than] taking political appointment and not going back to support the party that brought you to power. If all of us, …if all appointees, decide to become technocrats, the party will never return to power.” This disavowal repudiates the Pidgin English principle, “Monkey dey work, baboon dey chop.”

    In other words, the National Chairman believes that it is unethical to be benefiting from APC through political appointments without joining or working for the party to become stronger or win re-election. Indeed, one state legislature had in the past withheld approval for some nominees for appointment on the ground that those nominees had not used their prior political appointments positively for the party.

    The Yilwatda Doctrine rests on the following tripod: one, the governor is the leader of APC in each state that has an APC governor, but the governor must reckon with other stakeholders in the state; two, all aspirants would face party primaries, as there would be no automatic candidates for the 2027 elections; and three, in the spirit of giving back to APC, beneficiaries of political appointments cannot hide behind being technocrats to evade the moral responsibility to fully identify with and work for the progress of the party. Being critical principles of Nigerian democracy, it would be interesting to see how these principles would be sustainably applicable.