The Nation Newspaper

Category: Sunday

  • Amaechi: frantic, immoderate and self-absorbed

    Amaechi: frantic, immoderate and self-absorbed

    Ignore his early working life as a staff member of former Rivers State governor Peter Odili’s Pamo Clinics and Hospitals, or as a special assistant to the same Dr Odili when the latter took to politics in the early 1990s, or as Rivers State secretary of the Democratic Party of Nigeria in 1996 under the discredited Gen. Sani Abacha transition programme. As a young man trying to find his feet, Rotimi Amaechi, a former Rivers State governor and later Transportation minister under the Muhammadu Buhari presidency, can be forgiven for not being choosy or principled. Since he was elected into the Rivers House of Assembly in 1999 and led the legislature as speaker for eight years, he has imbibed a sense of entitlement that has only grown and ossified over the years.

    Nearly all his adult life, Mr Amaechi has been on the public payroll, and has had the good fortune to live in luxury, despite his pretences and lies. To become disconnected from that trough, as he claims government policies have forced him, is to consign him to a fate too tasking for his delicate mind to handle. He has, therefore, developed coping mechanism integral to his personality, but hidden from public view or the private eyes of those who helped him along in life. That mechanism involves deploying cynicism, freneticism, hysteria, immoderation, and his unfounded superior airs. He was in his 30s when he entered public life. About 60 years old now, he feels so traumatised that circumstances impel him to develop a new way of life outside public glare. Until he reenters public office, he will in the interim conspire to incite the public to a revolution by shaming them out of what he described as their docility.

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    Last week, at various forums, including the inauguration of their 2027 presidential programme planned to be executed through the African Democratic Congress (ADC) party, he was all over the media spreading hate speech and ladling out inciting remarks to achieve certain political goals. He tried to justify why the political coalition he supported veered away from founding a new party to instead adopting the generally disused ADC long accustomed to pimping its way through Nigeria’s political minefields, seducing every political straggler. Last week, he pontificated on television why his coalition preferred an old party to a new one. According to him, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was conspiring not to register any new party, with particular animosity to the All Democratic Alliance (ADA) which the coalition had wanted to float. He said nothing about the fact that the coalition had not even applied yet, having only delivered a letter of intent, let alone be denied.

    He was not satisfied denouncing INEC alone, he also lashed out, with no substantiation, that the federal government and INEC planned to rig the 2027 elections. It was not the first time he made that frantic allegation; nor will it be the last time. He had warned that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) could not win a free and fair election, adding that the people must rise up this time to force their way. It is an invitation to chaos, but the security agencies have obviously felt he has not transgressed his constitutional rights. What is incontrovertible is that given his antecedents, especially his lack of moderation and total unconcern for the health of the republic, Mr Amaechi will continue to make incendiary comments about politics, governance, and elections. As governor, he was himself not a model democrat, nor a brilliant policy man, but he sees specks in other people’s eyes than the beams in his own.

    The former Rivers governor has never been able to weigh his words. He speaks grandiosely, excessively and imperiously. In an interview with newsmen after the unveiling of ADC as the 2027 coalition vehicle, he was particularly hyperbolic. “Nigeria is destroyed,” he fulminated. “People can’t eat. People can’t buy food. There’s no money to buy food. Everything is gone. Inflation is at its peak. And the federal government is busy going around trying to hijack the election. INEC is helping them to hijack the election.” Then, on Thursday, at an event in Abuja, he again whined: “The only way you can stop Tinubu from being the president of Nigeria in 2027 is to run an election of Nigerians versus the bandits. If you think you will just sit down and do that, may God be with you. The elites who are stealing Nigerian money are not up to 100,000, but you have 200 million Nigerians who can fight 100,000 men. You sit down in your house and complain and grumble. What makes you think the elites would move their hands completely? Who told you the elites don’t know how you are feeling? They know you are not happy. But you are helpless not because the elites made you helpless; you made yourself helpless.”

    Mr Amaechi rose from obscurity to prominence without the intervening catalyst of leadership training and rhetorical composure. Since he lost the APC presidential primary in 2022, he has grown nasty and acerbic. He does not think anyone matches him in any way, despite his appalling lack of depth and sagacity, not even his former boss, President Muhammadu Buhari whom he once excoriated in unflattering language. It is one thing to be so full of himself, but why also scheme, by excessively foul language, to plunge the country into chaos simply because he thinks he has been denied his due? Yet, rummaging through his years in public service, it is hard to find a few extraordinary achievements to recommend his boasting or validate his grandiosity and pomposity. Years of exaggerating his capacity, not to talk of years of unprincipled and unrestrained politics during which he casually passes judgement on his peers and betters, have conspired to blunt his little appeal and also sentence him to the periphery of Nigerian politics. It is hard to situate him elsewhere.

  • PDP curiously regaining appeal

    PDP curiously regaining appeal

    It was as if the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was waiting for the defection of some of its ageing juggernauts to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in order to properly exhale. Now, the leading opposition party is not just exhaling, it is beginning to find its voice and to cut fresh path through Nigeria’s forested politics, unhindered by the cacophonous voices of former vice president Atiku Abubakar, Dino Melaye, Aminu Tambuwal, Sule Lamido, John Oyegun, and a host of other pretenders. They have all moved to a different political platform where they hope to accomplish their objectives. Some moved because of ambition, others moved out of loyalty to their former comrades, and others are moving because of financial gain. Having not found accommodation in the bigger and more financially solid parties, they needed to find new pastures in order not to be left high and dry in the politics of 2027.

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    The most curious and remarkable thing about the PDP is in fact not the movement of its ageing autocrats to new pastures, but the new realisation that the leading opposition party does in fact possess an older but far brighter lustre than they imagined it ever had. Leading this epiphanic rebirth is the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) minister Nyesome Wike who, despite his unending fight with the party’s leadership, has noted the party’s newfound unity and purpose, especially in the face of the ADC threat. The power grabbers had left, he exulted; now the party can forge ahead meaningfully. The All Progressives Congress (APC), armed with a chuckle, seconds his summation.

  • The superannuation of Europe

    The superannuation of Europe

    (Have nukes and balls, will travel)

    Nothing lasts forever. Do not let anybody deceive or confuse you that things are fixed and eternal. While civilizations take much longer to unravel, hegemonies collapse regularly and routinely after they have reached the limits of their possibility. Between 1870 when the Germans reached the gates of Paris and 1944 when the French with the help of Americans and Allied Forces managed to expel the selfsame Germans from Paris after a four-year occupation, the dominant order was close to collapse as a result of a war of hegemony among leading nations. Between 1870 and 1944, there were over thirty six documented wars which included encounters in far-flung places such as the Anglo-Boer War in South Africa and America’s confrontation with the Spaniards in both Cuba and the Philippines.  Lonely isolated encounters and explosion of hostilities do not often herald the end of hegemonies. It is when they come together in a global maelstrom that tongues begin to wag about the end of an epoch. In all human history, if there is anything constant about the relentless wars of hegemonies, it is the centrality of arms and superior violence.

      With specific reference to Africa, consider these disturbing facts. Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and the Kingdom of Eswatini formerly known as Swaziland have all fallen off the world map without as much as a whimper. Kenya which again erupted in murderous violence in the past week is probably following close on their heels. The unique nature of postcolonial wars in Africa is that they are fought entirely as civil wars which reflect the vulnerability and fragility of the nation-state prototype imposed on the continent by the departing colonial masters. The peace accord between Rwanda and DRC superintended by Washington is not worth the paper on which it was written.

      The international community no longer cares about what happens on the benighted continent. If they care let them kill off and eliminate themselves to the last person as long as they leave the vast mineral resources intact. The minerals are far more important than the multitude of dehumanized humanity. Whatever remains can be put to better use for the rest of humankind in a way its thieving and unhinged elites could never imagine or contemplate. The cradle of civilization has become an embarrassment and an obscene insult to the rest of humanity.

       The international community did not reach this conclusion lightly. Its own plate is filled to the brim with combustible combos. It is embroiled and embattled on many fronts. The global order is fractured down the line. A local proverb says that if your garment is up in flames and your child’s fabric is also ablaze, you must first put out the fire singeing through you before you can find the mental equilibrium to deal with filial emergency. The Serbs are still nursing their wounds after they were expelled by aerial bombardment from their genocidal siege on Croatia and Kosovo as Tito’s Yugoslavia unravelled in a spiral of blood and mayhem.

     For almost three years, Russia, their fellow-traveller in Slavic hyper-nationalism, has subjected Ukraine to a slow-motion demolition with America, Europe and the rest of the world looking askance unable to do anything about the horrific carnage. The old map of the Middle East has been torn to shreds with Israeli emerging as the new law-giver and colonial superpower. Gaza is reduced to apocalyptic rubble and this past week it was the turn of Iran to be subjected to high-tech blitz by the combined power of America and Israel. Trump spoke of a possible nuclear obliteration of the ancient civilization and the Israeli High Command warned darkly that the Iranian Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had lost the right to exist. It was a grim reminder of an oxymoronic formulation: civilized savagery or modern barbarism has become the new norm. Even our old primitive ancestors would have winced in fright at the images coming out of Gaza. Their own savagery was delimited and circumscribed by the fact that they had no access to modern weapons of mass destruction. The world has become a far more dangerous and threatening place. With China warming its cockles for its inevitable Taiwanese dinner, it is going to get nastier. The meticulous and mercilessly precise Chinese are merely waiting for the locked door to swing open on its own before they pounce.

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    The more modern and civilized humanity has become the more savage and unreconstructed their inner essence has turned out. Weak people and poor nations have no place in the new arrangement. The global subalterns can talk but they cannot be heard. It is the muffled rumbling of impotence. Walter Benjamin famously noted that there is no record of civilization which is not at the same time a record of barbarism. But this time around there is no record of barbarism which is not enshrined in the new code of modernity. With its back to the wall and its hands tied from behind, Iran was forced to eat the humble pie and accept a humiliating Pax Americana handed down by the new Supreme Global Leader, Taoiseach Donald Trump. Let the world know that a new international order has dawned.

      As the triumphant convoy of the American president swept past the NATO headquarters this past week with hubristic glee, you got a sense that something was not quite right. The atmosphere was of chilly and chilling solitude. There were no crowds to welcome and cheer on the all-conquering American chieftain. It was a grumpy and self-absorbed old man that slouched out of the sedan wearing his characteristic mixture of a frown and a grimace. The man of peace was not at peace with himself. The strains and drains of the sleepless nights were showing. Unlike the plucky, devil may care Benjamin Netanyahu whose older brother was killed during the raid on Entebbe, Donald Trump, for all the bluff and bluster, is not your natural warrior. He seems to harbor a profound distaste for blood and gore which may yet be the saving grace and abiding luck of Western civilization.

     It was after all the Israeli prime minister who showed him how it could be done and how the Iranians with their hysteric ranting could be taken down by high precision bombing and reduced to whimpering nonentities in their own homestead. The Israeli tail has been wagging the American body for quite some time and only God knows how that one will pan out in the coming months. Perhaps that was why Trump appeared so preoccupied even in pomp and glory. The Netanyahu question is even more compelling than the Putin puzzle as Trump is bound to find out. But what made the NATO drama more compelling was the surreal sight of European leaders tumbling and stumbling over themselves in groveling self-abasement to pay homage and compliments to the American leader who appeared to be the least interested in their sedulous inanities. The American president was in no mood to compliment any of them as he shunned and ignored them as they lined up for photo-ops whooshing and wheezing over the unsmiling autocrat from across the Atlantic who seemed to have a full measure of their cadging and wheedling.

       This is not Great Europe as the world knew it. This was no longer the Europe of Winston Churchill, Konrad Adenauer, Willy Brandt, Charles de Gaulle, Giscard Valery D’Estaing , Harold Wilson, Harold Macmillan, Margaret Thatcher and Sir Peter Carrington who once famously dismissed an American Secretary of State as a purveyor of Boys’ Scout Diplomacy. This was in response to his being privately shaded as a duplicitous bastard by the no-nonsense American four-star general. The new generation of European leaders have grown fat and unproductive on American largesse and are mortally afraid of the feeding bottle being snatched away by a vengeful and furious Trump who has seen through the charade of a multilateralism in which America is expected to pick the tab for protecting Europe against predators and for fighting its wars for them. Not being warrior-statesmen in the mold of Winston Churchill, Charles de Gaulle or a fierce amazon like Margaret Thatcher, European leaders are content to let Americans fight their wars for them so that the citizens can have a life of bliss and peaceful prosperity. Donald Trump is having none of that subsidized indolence. Although his country remains stupendously rich, Trump is insisting that the pains and pangs of war ought to be more evenly spread around.

    With the painful riot act dropped on them from the American throne like a mega-ton bomb, European leaders looked like supplicating sissies before an all-powerful global sovereign this past week. Now that America has abandoned all pretenses to multilateralism, it is going to be a bareknuckle contention all the way and Europe will find itself reduced to the status of a neo-vassal continent. European countries will find themselves in the excellent company of their former African colonies. There is no point in settling the order of precedent between coolies and serfs. This past week one watched with colonial satisfaction as Donald Trump barked at the Spaniards, the first real superpowers of the modern world, for being remiss in coming up with their NATO levies. It was all grimly reminiscent of Benito Cereno, a remarkably clairvoyant novella by Herman Melville, the great American nineteenth century novelist, which accurately predicted the humbling and superannuation of Imperial Spain. The puny Spanish sea-men cut a truly pathetic figure as the incredibly devious African sailors who had mutinied in high seas ran them aground in an unfurling web of intrigues and silent power plays as the burly, superbly fit Americans watched proceedings with stern interest ready to restore order at short notice.

       It was a truly astonishing insight into the absorbing dynamics of historical superannuation such as can only come from a creative genius. It may well be that the European statesmen, as wily masters of historical temporizing, may be playing for time, hoping that the long run of events will restore parity and sanity. It is said in local parlance that sometimes you may have to dress a dangerous mad person in the resplendent garb of a prospective much sought after bridegroom just to assure your safe passage. Unfortunately, the short and long term optics does not appear to favour such rosy optimism.

     In keeping with protocols, it is appropriate to end this drama of trading places with another conceit. At the end of the eighteenth century, Benjamin Franklin, the great American author, inventor, publisher and statesman, arrived in Paris as the ambassador and representative of the new nation. His gaiety, ebullience and devil may care aplomb astonished and alarmed the Parisian high culture in equal measure and led them to conclude that it was only in America that such a person could serve as ambassador. It was meant as a sly putdown but it was an ironic compliment. Last week and centuries after as Donald Trump swept through the NATO Headquarters with his gruff disdain for polite conversation and diplomatic etiquette, the same European high culture would have concluded that it was only in America that such gung-ho militarism and bad manners could be associated with the highest office in the land. The joke is on them. Donald Trump is the supreme law-giver.      

  • Baba Lekki sings Ketekete for Atiku

    Baba Lekki sings Ketekete for Atiku

    To the Agindingbi Town Hall on this dismal and wet late June morning where Baba Lekki, the famous contrarian and veteran hell raiser, is holding a seminar for politically displaced people, PDP. Ever since the president of the republic dismissed the motley crowd of political chancers hankering after his job as “political IDPs” tongues have been wagging as to whether IDP was the same as PDP and whether a lethal combination of the two meant DOD (Dead on Delivery). In a litigious society where litigation itself had been known to have been sued for not being litigative enough, one must proceed with caution in these matters. This morning with a fretful and rather nervous Okon in tow, the old man cut a figure of scholarly sobriety and legal gravitas. He had brought with him maps, sketches and political memorabilia to prove that the opposition had deliberately committed suicide which amounted to voluntary self-elimination.  But before things could get on an even keel, a huge disturbance emanated from the back of the hall which was packed full with miscreants, scoundrels and political Oblomovs.

    “Oga mi I never chop for three days, abi na so so politics we go chop? I no be PDP, I be EDP”, a rotund man with huge biceps screamed from the back.

     “And what is that?” an irate freelance thug demanded. With his mahogany frame and scarified face, it was obvious he was not a person to mess around with.

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    “Economically Deprived People”, the rotund man shouted.

     “Ha, I see. He is one of these Obidient people. He has been brought to disturb baba. If he doesn’t shut his mouth, I will seal it for him”, the mahogany man threatened as he began hauling a huge brown amulet out of his pocket. Things seemed to have simmered down considerably after that.

    “As I was saying,” the old man began, “ADA is Brought In Dead. They are dead politicians disturbing the peace of the land, it will end in what the Yoruba people call ADANU or great loss”. The audience swooned at this great play on words with one of them hailing the old recidivist as a great genius lost to the world of native poetry.

    “Baba, so what will become of a great man like Atiku? Na my in-law from Ilesha,” one man asked from the crowd with a funereal hiccup. Baba Lekki burst into a deranged smile.

    “Foolish man, why you no warn your in-law when him dey climb Langbodo tree? I warned Atiku. I told him these foolish wazobia boys will take all his money and run away. Now, they have broken the camel’s back. Atiku don become Tinko meat. Nwon ti pa ketekete” (They have killed donkey!) The entire hall erupted in applause.

      At this point, the old man began singing and dancing the ketekete classic to the great delight of the crowd.

  • Confusion reigns supreme in coalition, opposition

    Confusion reigns supreme in coalition, opposition

    Rather than bestride the Nigerian political firmament, the promised coalition to unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027 is being trampled under feet. The inspirers of the coalition have tried to make their teams indistinguishable from the opposition, but opposition political parties, many of them scornful of the domineering roles being played by coalition leaders, have resented such equivalence. They do not think they can win on their own, but they seem uninterested in joining forces with anyone simply to unseat the president. They want a programme, not emotions; a sensible plan of action, not hysteria; an altruistic and probably younger leadership, not old, jaded and bellicose assemblage; and a sound vision of the country, not eclectic ideas about its future.

    By early last week, it seemed to the public that coalition leaders, among whom were former vice president Atiku Abubakar, ex-governors Rotimi Amaechi and Nasir el-Rufai, and the indecisive ex-Anambra governor Peter Obi, had virtually made up their minds to abandon the merger idea in favour of founding a new party. Before the week was over, however, the overcautious Alhaji Atiku was vacillating, and Mr Obi was silent and dithering. The coalition appeared dangerously poised to unravel. Yet, Messrs Amaechi and el-Rufai stuck to their guns. They were of course no longer as euphoric as when they first announced the proposal to form the All Democratic Alliance (ADA) and were met with exultant newspaper headlines beatifying their tactics, but they kept hope alive even in the face of the electoral commission pouring cold water on their efforts. They had not begun to take concrete steps to form a party, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) told them after enumerating a long process of things they must do to get the attention of the electoral body.

    Knowing them for who they are, and regardless of their inappropriately acronymed party, ADA, they will hope to bluff and bluster their way into quick registration. Their success will be qualified, and the process tasking, but they are not known to be quitters. In any case, just as adrenalin rush fuels an athlete, the coalition leaders retain enough amperage of vengeful distaste for President Tinubu to be discouraged by any administrative hurdles placed in their path. For now, Mr Obi, who is still nominally in the Labour Party (LP), has remained fairly reticent about the coalition, declining to summarily repudiate them, especially he being a cautious man and an opportunist. Alhaji Atiku was a little strident in his view of the proposed new party, ADA. Known for his versatility in running with the hare and hunting with the hounds, the former vice president insisted his group was yet to adopt the unregistered ADA. His group might be amorphous, but many analysts are bewildered, having long associated him with the brains behind the ADA registration efforts.

    Alhaji Atiku is also nominally still a member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). But he knows that the doors seemed to have been shut against his aspiration to run for president on their platform. Squabbling PDP leaders expect him to leave the party, and are waiting anxiously for the announcement so that they can start to find their way through Nigeria’s political thicket. But for now they must rein in their apprehensions. The former vice president also knows he will have to leave if the former ruling party can’t put its house in order and remains disdainful of and resolute against his presidential aspiration. He will take his exit when he judges the time right, especially if he thinks he stands the chance of carrying out a scorched-earth action against the party for spurning his advances. Overall, while he can endure all forms of indignities thrown at him, he can’t stand being ‘partyless’, a prospect enticingly possible should he leave the PDP in a huff and the proposed new party, ADA, runs into a storm over registration.

    ADA promoters have been told in no uncertain terms that their ordeal is just beginning. To begin to apply for registration, there was still much to be done, INEC stunned them. They will, therefore, be frantic about fulfilling the preconditions for registration, while those who publicly decline to associate with them might secretly funnel funds to them. But it remains to be seen just how far they can go, especially in the face of public derision against them from, of all places, the core North. While coalition leaders are mired in confusion, the PDP, which remains the main opposition party with sizable presence in states and the National Assembly, is also encrusted in bigger confusion. In their fact-finding meeting with the INEC leadership early last week, they were subjected to facetious remarks by the INEC chairman, Mahmood Yakubu, who could barely stop himself from snorting at their inability to follow due process and sort out their administrative mess. They had wanted to know why INEC appeared to disavow their June 30 National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting where they hoped to straighten out their secretariat logjam, a precondition for holding a lawful meeting. The party has finally and lawfully, but of curse reluctantly, reinstated Samuel Anyanwu as the party’s national secretary. But their problems are just beginning, quite apart from the defection gale that has scrambled their reasoning.

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    No one knows how far or deep the confusion in the coalition and opposition is. But if it is much deeper and entrenched than appears on the surface, then they are in big trouble. For if they cannot restore peace in their ranks or provide the leadership and ingenuity their parties require for survival, they will have a harder time, as some northern commentators have sighed, in proving they can find the mettle to govern Nigeria. Worse, if they cannot resolve the crises that dog them before early next year, then they will stand no chance of offering the ruling party any opposition, let alone winning the next presidential poll, their main and shameless fixation. The stasis that afflicts them, which they appear unable to resolve in the short run, may explain why they make a recourse to savaging the president’s image in order to weaken him considerably and make a coalition party both appealing and electorally potent.

  • Unyielding, divided PDP

    Unyielding, divided PDP

    Having run out of excuses, Nigeria’s opposition parties have begun suggesting that the ruling party might be behind their ordeal. They are divided, sometimes into three factions, as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) have shown, and have refused to yield to one another or rally around a common cause. They seem determined to perish separately. Last week, the PDP once again witnessed a stirring. It occurred to some bright minds within the party that the fractures in the PDP might produce negative electoral consequences in forthcoming elections, particularly regarding fielding of candidates. The electoral body, INEC, should be in a position to shed light on how the party should proceed safely, some of the party bigwigs mused.

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    They thereafter consulted the INEC leadership, discovered their errant ways, and then took remedial step to suspend their National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting earlier fixed for June 30. Nonsense, said some of their factional leaders. No one could shift that sacrosanct date, regardless of what INEC said, and the meeting would still hold, thundered the faction now described as the Seyi Makinde-led group. This intransigent position is reportedly backed by some 11 National Working Committee (NWC) members. Somewhere in the wings, another implacable leader of the party, FCT minister Nyesom Wike, kept pouring scorn on their uncertainties. From all indications, and if care is not taken, all PDP factions might soon forget why they are squabbling.

  • The rise, rise and rise of capitalism (XXV)

    The rise, rise and rise of capitalism (XXV)

    So much noise has been made about the Second World War in Europe that one can be forgiven for not taking much notice about the war in the Far East. There, the Japanese Empire was pitted against the might of both the USA and the ubiquitous British Empire. This war did not end until more than three months after the end of the war in Europe.  And people remember it mostly because hostilities here ended with the big bangs caused by the detonation of atomic bombs over the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Virtually everybody knows that. But not many know that before the atomic bombs were dropped, some Japanese cities; mainly Tokyo, Nagoya and Kobe had been subjected to a ferocious attack using incendiary bombs which virtually erased them. Shortly after midnight on the night of 9 -10 March 1944, Tokyo was attacked by close to 300 B 29 flying fortress bombers each of them carrying four tons of incendiary bombs made of a mixture of napalm and oil. They started uncontrollable fires, a conflagration so fierce that its oxygen demand caused it to suck out oxygen from the lungs of people, killing them by asphyxiation. The death toll on the ground in Tokyo has never been accurately determined but the figure of 100,000 dead has been more or less agreed upon. However, there are many who think that the real figure is considerably higher.

    As with the use of the atomic bomb, the fire bombing of Japanese cities has been suggested to be related to racism. After all, German cities were not nuked neither were they subjected to the level of  fire bombing directed at civilians, old people as well as children as was the case in Tokyo and other Japanese cities. In any case, in the struggle between capitalists, racism is always a factor and it was a cogent factor in the war between Japan and the Allied forces. For example, the Overall commander of the Allied forces in Europe, Dwight Eisenhower was ethnically German. That did not stop him from getting the top job in the United States army during the war against Germany. On the other hand, all Japanese Americans in the USA were simply rounded up and locked away in internment camps throughout the duration of the war. The loyalty of Japanese Americans was forcefully denied whereas the most prominent American soldier was an ethnic German.

    Back to those terrible fires. They were supposed to break the fighting spirit of the Japanese, to take them out of the war as quickly as possible. In doing so, it was said that this would help save the lives of American soldiers by shortening the period of the war. But the tactic employed was so cold blooded and inhuman that had the Americans lost the war, LeMay, the author of the fire bombing strategy would most certainly have been put on trial for war crimes, convicted and executed. Fortunately for him, his side won the war and he came out of that mess smelling of roses.

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    There is something deeply ironical about Japan and the USA being at war. One hundred years before those flying fortress bombers were dropping their incendiary bombs over Tokyo, the Americans were squeezing the Japanese out of a self imposed isolationism which had lasted two hundred and twenty years. That period known as the Sakoku began in 1624 and was one in which the Japanese allowed partial contact with China, the Netherlands and Korea. All other nations were shut out completely. The initial reason for this isolation was to keep out what the Japanese regarded as the pernicious influence of Christian missionaries particularly those of Roman Catholic persuasion. The rulers were determined to protect their indigenous culture and religion from outside influence and were well aware of the disgraceful antics of both Spanish and Portuguese missionaries in the Philippines close to them and in faraway South America where the indigenous peoples were decimated. The Japanese methods of exclusion were as brutal as they were effective. Christian priests and their converts were summarily executed and all Japanese were required by law to be registered in a Buddhist temple. This is why today only 1% of Japanese are Christian. Even in isolation however Chinese, Korean and Dutch influences in terms of trade and education were allowed to filter in.

    By the beginning of the nineteenth century however, the Industrial revolution was in full swing and the relentless search for raw materials and markets had begun. This made the maintenance of Japanese isolation increasingly difficult and ultimately untenable. This became clear when in 1842, a coalition of western powers forced the Chinese to accept opium as an article of trade. If that happened in the Celestial empire of China, it was clear that nowhere else on earth could remain uncontaminated with capitalist contagion. This was the situation when Commodore Perry of the US Navy appeared off the coast at Nagasaki with four ships, all of them bristling with powerful guns. He had come with a proposal for the establishment of trade relations with Japan. That was in 1853 at a time when gunboat diplomacy was in fashion. And Perry showed that he was not afraid to use his guns to get what he wanted. No agreement was reached on that occasion for all the sabre rattling. Undeterred, he was back the following year, this time with eleven ships of the line. In the face of this magnitude of force, a trade agreement was signed and Japan was dragged into the capitalist orbit.

    Even during Sakoku, the Japanese were not completely isolated as they continued to study medicine, military science, diplomacy and other aspects of societal development. In the same vein, they did not fling their doors open to all sorts of foreign influences at the end of Sakoku. Perhaps the most important development in this period was the amalgamation of the ruling Shogunates of the time into one Japanese empire under the rule of a divine emperor at the beginning of the Meiji dynasty. Being divine, the emperor became a powerful rallying force to whom all Japanese owed an allegiance. Under the emperor, Japan entered a period of modernisation now referred to as the period of Meiji Restoration. The changes which took place at this time made it possible for her to take her rightful place among the comity of nations. Her race to industrialisation was on.

    The first movement towards industrialisation was to change from a feudal society ruled by warlords to one monolithic democratic polity governed by the rule of law emanating from the divine emperor. This was followed by the building of industrial infrastructure; roads, bridges, railroads, power installations and educational institutions with the capacity to produce the intellectual and technical muscle to drive the process of industrialisation. A modern and well equipped was added to this heady mix and Japan was ready to step out into the world of imperial adventures.

    With modern and well equipped armed forces, Japan developed a taste for imperial conquests. She cast her eyes over territories within China and the Korean peninsular into which she sent her nascent armed forces with the intention of carving out an empire as all the great powers were doing at the time. This brought her into conflict with the Russian  empire which had the same ambition within the same region. Given that situation, a clash between these super powers in the Far East became inevitable and quite predictably, a war broke out between Japan and Russia. Much to the surprise of other countries, the winner of this contest was Japan. When the Russian Baltic sea navy arrived in the Far East to engage the Japanese Navy, it proved to be a bridge too far for the Russians and the Japanese inflicted a crushing defeat on them. For the first time in the modern era, an Asian army imposed her will on a European country on the battle ground. Some saw this as the world tilting on its axis and needing a redress. Fifty years later, Europe came roaring back in those B29 bombers and burnt Tokyo to the ground. The world was put back on track.

    A hundred years after the end of Sakoku, Japan had become an imperial power, a roaring lion seeking who to devour. She had gobbled up large areas of China and had annexed much of the Korean peninsular where she ruled with an uncommonly heavy hand. Such was her appetite for further conquests that she turned her eyes on parts of the British empire in the Far East with her ultimate destination being India, the jewel in the British crown. Japan was not able to bring the British to their knees but her success against them in Singapore, Malaya, Hong Kong, Borneo and Burma showed the rest of the world that the emperor was actually naked. The British empire did not survive that exposure.

  • Diri wants third term

    Diri wants third term

    Bayelsa governor says eight years are not enough to deliver on his mandate

    I must confess I have been too far from Bayelsa State. But I remember an article I wrote on March 31, 2013, when the then Governor Seriake Dickson was advocating the criminalisation of ‘Dem say, dem say journalism’. I remember Prof Olatunji Dare, this newspaper’s editorial adviser, also published a piece he titled ‘From the cell phones’, which were reactions to the governor’s peculiar wish that some of the columnists in this paper, including myself, published on the issue.

    Twelve years after, I am here commenting again on another equally peculiar request of the incumbent governor, Douye Diri, that has attracted negative reactions from certain quarters.

    Given the kind of country we are in, not a few people have been piqued by the governor’s request for more time for governors in office. Indeed, I knew the governor would be pilloried for asking for tenure extension for governors when about a week ago I first came across the news in the social media. I took it with a pinch of salt initially, coming from the social media where everyone is now a journalist. But by the time I saw the news in the mainstream media, it dawned on me that the governor was not misquoted. At any rate, up till the time of putting finishing touches to this piece yesterday, the governor has not denied the statement.

    But first, what exactly did Governor Diri say?

    Just about what I told you earlier: the man wants third term for governors to enable them complete their good works. Senator Diri seized the opportunity of his ‘Thank you tour’ to the eight local government areas of the state to make the passionate plea.

    Speaking specifically at the King Koko Square in Nembe, headquarters of the Nembe Local Government Area of the state, before a large crowd during the tour, Diri said he wants the National Assembly lawmakers to consider tinkering with the constitution towards this noble and patriotic objective.

    Hear the governor: “It is not proper to start a project and abandon it for another government. So, some of your demands can be achieved. But I will suggest you talk to Hon. Marie Ebikake, Hon. Fred Agbedi, Hon. Oforji Oboku and Senator Benson Agadaga to tell the National Assembly to tinker with the constitution.

    READ ALSO: My biggest challenges in office, by Dapo Abiodun

    “They should tinker with the constitution and consider giving governors third term in office. With that done, I can accomplish some of your demands.”

    Isn’t this good enough a reason for governors to have third term?

    But Nigerians, ever impatient as usual, did not even wait to let the governor finish before taking on him. I wasn’t surprised, though. Our people like throwing away the baby with the bath water. The same thing they did when the then President Olusegun Obasanjo began the third term gambit. The National Assembly at the time also threw away other goodies with third term not necessarily because they did not like the idea, but because they hated the face of the person on whose behalf a case was being made for it. I chose my words carefully. Yes, I said ‘’ they hated the face of the person on whose behalf a case was being made for it’’ because the person at the centre of it all, president Obasanjo, craved for third term like mad and worked assiduously towards it, without opening his mouth.

    In the case of Gov. Diri, there was no pretension about it. I do not know whether he even had such a thing in mind before going to Nembe. What is in the public domain is that the request came as his response to the demand by the people that his government may not be able to complete some of the good works it started due to inadequate time.

    Lest we forget, Senator Diri became governor in February 2020. He won reelection and was sworn in for second term in February, last year. Meaning he should quit, other things being equal, in February 2028. That is less than three years from now.

    The governor gave account of some of his achievements to the people. He told them that by the end of the year, the state should be in a position to provide electricity supply to them.

    “As you are aware, your state government has procured an independent power plant and very soon, we will no longer depend on the existing power supply arrangement. We will soon take delivery of the 60 megawatt gas turbines and the site for the installation is almost completed”, the governor said.

    He added that: “We are rich in gas and by the end of this year; the problem of power supply will be a thing of the past in this state. It is expected to cover Yenagoa, Nembe, Ogbia, Kolokuma/Opokuma, Sagbama and parts of Ekeremor local government areas.”

    It would seem to me that Gov. Diri is on a silent revolution in Bayelsa because I have some knowledge (or so I thought until now) of states that are likely to come up with their own power production and Diri’s Bayelsa is nowhere on the list. Isn’t this good enough news?

    I want to suspect third term surreptitiously crept in when the people talked about construction of the Igbeta-Ewoama-Okoroba Road.

    That was when the governor said he was beginning to face time constraints. Even then, he promised to partner federal agencies such as the Niger Delta Development Commission and South-South Development Commission to facilitate some of the projects.

    So, what is wrong with the governor suggesting that governors’ tenure be extended from the present eight years maximum to, say, 12? Or even 16, if the situation so demands? Are we not all aware that projects are never equal? While some can simply be bought off the shelf and coupled, others take time to come to fruition. Like roads, for instance. Especially the kinds of roads that the governor has in mind. Such laudable projects cannot be completed in three years!

    Gov. Diri would appear to be talking sense when we realise that some governors simply abandon their predecessors’ uncompleted projects, no matter the stage of completion. This is the source of many abandoned projects in the country. Isn’t it better then for the person who began a project to finish it, even if that would take two more terms? Many of our states are yearning for development and tenure extension is one stone that could be used to kill two birds: complete developmental projects as well as check wastage of resources associated with abandoned projects.

    Mind you, the man is making the case only for governors, not all elected officials. And some people are saying some governors won’t go far even if you give them 100 years. I don’t know what that is supposed to mean. Is that to say our governors are not putting on their thinking caps?

    One annoying thing in this matter is that this is a sitting governor talking. He has the experience. Many of those criticising his request for third term have never been local government chairmen. Many cannot even govern their streets.

    Yet they are criticising a man with hands-on experience who has seen it all. I am sure Diri must be speaking for many of the governors even if most of them cannot openly request for what he requested for, not necessarily because they do not like it, but because of its political inappropriateness or possible backlash. I know that if Gov. Diri manages to get this wish through, his state would become a Mecca for appreciative colleagues who lack the courage and patriotism to do what he did.

    At any rate, where were the people now criticising Diri over his tenure extension dream when the father of former Gov. Lucky Nosakhare Igbinedion of Edo State said his son should be allowed to ‘repeat’ since he failed the first attempt (tenure?) Sunny Edoja summarised the story in a piece titled ‘’Need for continuity in Edo State’’ (The Sun, September 4, 2016):  When Lucky’s father, Chief Gabriel Igbinedion  was campaigning for the re-election of his son in 2003, Edo people told him point blank that his son didn’t do well in office but the senior Igbinedion told them in pidgin, Pickin wey no do well for one class must repeat that class  meaning if a child fails in one class, that child must repeat the class; so he wanted his son to be re-elected despite his woeful performance in office. Lucky was re-elected through the usual PDP magic and Edo State was the worse for it.’’ The rest is history.

    Gov. Diri’s case would even appear somewhat different. Igbinedion did not do many projects; so he probably had no abandoned project. For such a person, four years might even be too long. Diri would seem to be a governor with so much in his belly that he thinks eight years are not enough to deliver.

    We must listen to him.

    What is more? He even spoke with such gusto and candour unlike the proponent of third term in our political lexicon who said everything pointing in the direction of tenure extension without saying anything. Only to turn round to say he did not want it and that if he wanted it, he would’ve told God who would also have granted his wish.

    All said, I admire Gov. Diri for his courage and forthrightness. In a country of pretenders, we need to hail people like the governor who say their minds irrespective of whose ox is gored. If a governor is pregnant with projects and he thinks eight years are not enough to deliver all of them safely, what is wrong in asking for more years?

    So, let Bayelsa’s law makers in the National Assembly that the governor mentioned: Ebikake, Agbedi, Oboku and Agadaga set the ball rolling. Their governor is not like Lucky Igbinedion who was bereft of ideas. In Diri’s own case, it is the glut of projects he has that is making him ask for more time. For such hardworking governor, we must oblige him. He should be allowed to deliver naturally, lest he be induced to deliver prematurely.

    I wonder why we are not putting the governor’s progressive proposal in the front burner of national discourse. This is where it rightfully belongs and we must take it there. Otherwise, we should stop complaining that many governors are not doing much. At least we now know why. 

    This is much more so now that state governments are literally awash with cash. More cash. More projects. More time. Balanced equation. Not a bad idea.

    Third term! Third term!!

  • 2027: Disjointed opposition will only further solidify Tinubu’s chances

    2027: Disjointed opposition will only further solidify Tinubu’s chances

    That there is a cloud of confusion over the future of the opposition being championed by the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar and ex-Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai should not be a surprise to any close watcher of Nigerian politics.

    Let’s briefly see what their boss, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, thinks of the two lodestars.

    In MY WATCH, Obasanjo wrote about Atiku, inter alia, as follows:”What I did not know, which came out glaringly later, was his propensity to corruption, his tendency to disloyalty, his inability to say and stick to the truth all the time,a propensity for poor judgment,  his lack of transparency, his trust in money to buy his way out on all issues and his readiness to sacrifice morality, integrity, propriety truth and national interest for self and selfish interest”.

    And of El Rufai, the former President wrote:

    “Very early in my interaction with him, I appreciated his talent. At the same time, I recognised his weaknesses; the worst being his inability to be loyal to anybody or any issue consistently for long, but only to Nasir el-Rufai.

    He lied brazenly, which he did to me, against his colleagues and so-called friends…”.

    Can Nigerians then seriously expect anything worthwhile  from these two gentlemen?

    But then a serious and responsible opposition is a sine qua non in a democracy.

    Because of that, and for the sake of Nigeria, this piece will not only show a true picture of what currenty goes for opposition in Nigeria, but also indicate what manner of opposition is required.

    The Nigerian political landscape is marked by a complex web of alliances, rivalries, and power struggle. With the emergence of President Bola Tinubu’s administration, the opposition has found itself at the crossroads. A disjointed opposition, characterized by infighting, lack of cohesion, and unclear ideological direction, can only further solidify Tinubu’s chances of consolidating power.

    One of the primary challenges facing the opposition is the lack of a unified front. With multiple parties and factions vying for influence, the opposition has struggled to present a cohesive message and challenge the present administration effectively. This disunity has allowed Tinubu to exploit the divisions and capitalise on their weaknesses.

    Another factor contributing to the opposition’s disjointedness is the absence of a clear ideological direction. Many opposition parties and leaders seem more focused on personal ambition and power struggle than on articulating a distinct vision for the country.

    This lack of ideological clarity makes it difficult for the opposition to differentiate itself from Tinubu’s administration and mobilise support from the masses.

    READ ALSO: Again, the Fubara-Wike rapprochement

    Furthermore, the opposition’s internal conflicts and power struggle have led to a lack of effective leadership. With multiple leaders vying for prominence, the opposition has struggled to present a unified and compelling narrative that can challenge the present administration. This leadership vacuum has allowed President Tinubu to dictate the terms of the debate and shape the national agenda.

    The disjointed nature of the opposition has also made it easier for the administration to co-opt and neutralise potential challengers.

    Moreover, the opposition’s failure to engage in effective grassroots mobilisation has limited its ability to build a broad-based movement that can challenge the incumbent.

    By focusing on elite-level politics and neglecting the needs and concerns of ordinary Nigerians beyond ‘ebi n pa wa’, the opposition has ceded the initiative to the President who has been able to use state resources and machinery to consolidate power.

    The consequences of a disjointed opposition are far-reaching. Without a united and effective opposition, the administration may feel emboldened to push through its agenda without adequate checks and balances. This could lead to an erosion of democratic institutions, human rights abuses, and policies that favor the ruling party’s interests over those of the broader population.

    In addition, a disjointed opposition may struggle to hold the administration accountable for its actions. Without a strong and united opposition, there may be limited scrutiny of government policies and decisions, allowing corruption and inefficiency to thrive.

    To change this narrative, the opposition needs to undergo a fundamental transformation.

    This requires a renewed focus on building a united front, articulating a clear ideological direction, and engaging in effective grassroots mobilization.

    But a coterie of atiku, El Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi etc has been unable to do this because they all must be President, or Vice President, even those who have contested for more than five times just because Marabouts said so.

    A serious opposition must prioritise leadership development, identify and support leaders who can inspire and mobilise the masses.

    Also opposition needs to rethink its strategy and tactics.  This requires engaging with ordinary Nigerians, listening to their concerns, and developing policies that address their needs.

    Ultimately, the fate of Nigeria’s democracy depends on the ability of the opposition to regroup, recharge, and present a united front.

    By doing so, the opposition can ensure that power is held accountable, democratic institutions are strengthened, and the interests of all Nigerians are represented even if it won’t win elections yet. If the opposition fails to rise to this challenge, it will only solidify President Tinubu’s chances and make his re- election a walk in the park which an election in a democracy should, ordinarily, not be.

  • Nigeria’s democracy and its malcontents

    Nigeria’s democracy and its malcontents

    A series of events which took place within the past three to four weeks have brought to the fore the question of democracy in Nigeria. The pivot of these events was the celebration of the 2025 Democracy Day which was marked with a national holiday on June 12.

    On June 12, 1993, after about eight years of political merry-go-round by the military regime headed by General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida from 27 August, 1985, Nigerians, with a lot of hope and enthusiasm, went to the polls to vote in the presidential election between the candidate of the National Republican Convention (NRC) – Alhaji Bashir Tofa – and that of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) – Bashorun Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola (popularly called MKO Abiola).

    When it became apparent that Chief MKO Abiola had won the election, Babangida’s military regime suspended the announcement of the results and annulled the election, thereby dashing the hope of millions of Nigerians across the nation. The regime went ahead, on 26 August, 1993, to install an illegitimate contraption called the Interim National Government (ING) headed by a well-known industrialist, Chief Ernest Sonekan, who, like MKO, was from Abeokuta in Ogun State.

    This weak impostor government was unsurprisingly sacked on 17 November, 1993, and General Sani Abacha was declared military Head of State. It is not clear whether the Babangida regime, the ING contraption and the Abacha junta anticipated the reaction of citizens to the electoral travesty. The winner of the election, MKO Abiola, resisted the annulment and the subsequent illegal administrations and insisted on the restoration of his mandate, and at a point in time he had to leave Nigeria to go and pile international pressure on the Abacha regime.

    There were widespread protests against the annulment, and various resistance groups emerged, with the most famous being the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) formed on 15 May, 1994. The longstanding Yoruba socio-political group, Afenifere, was part of this coalition. In 1994, MKO Abiola returned from exile, and on 11 June, 1994, he declared himself President at Epetedo in Lagos. He was arrested by the Abacha regime and kept in detention until he died on 7 July, 1998, after resisting all attempts to get him to drop his claim to victory at the June 12, 1993 election.

    READ ALSO: Again, the Fubara-Wike rapprochement

    One of the Nigerians who stood by Abiola prominently and continued the pro-democracy struggle even after MKO’s death was Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He represented Lagos West Senatorial District from 1992 and his membership of the Nigerian Senate was terminated with Abacha’s dismantling of all democratic structures in 1993. Going into exile in 1994, he continued the pro-democracy agitation, collaborated with other pro-democracy activists and provided refuge and sustenance to a lot of others outside Nigeria.

    Dismissive of this democratic antecedent, the former Governor of Jigawa State and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) chieftain, Alhaji Sule Lamido, in a 21 June, 2025 interview with Arise News, said: “I feel highly entertained by Tinubu’s rhetoric. The way he is dramatising his own role in Nigerian democracy. … With all respect to him, he was part of those people who were supporting Babangida’s annulment of June 12. He was part of it. His own mother, Hajiya Mogaji from Lagos, was organising Lagos market women to Abuja to pledge support for Babangida.”

    In a 22 June, 2025 press release, Bayo Onanuga, the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, countered Lamido’s claims as follows: “Let us set the record straight: Mrs Mogaji never mobilised market women to support the unjust annulment.” Similarly, on 4 June, 2001, at the renaming of the newly-dualised Oregun Road in Lagos “Kudirat Abiola Way,” in honour of the Late Alhaja Kudirat Abiola (MKO Abiola’s wife), a then much younger Femi Falana (who has since grown to become a Senior Advocate of Nigeria), acknowledged Alhaja Mogaji’s condemnation of the annulment. He noted that Alhaja Mogaji asked the Federal Government, through Oyinlola who was in a Federal Government delegation to Kudirat Abiola’s burial: “E ti oko m’ólé, e p’aya è. Èyí wa daa bí?” (‘You imprisoned the husband and killed the wife. Is that good?’)

    Onanuga also stated: “It is important to remind Nigerians that Mr Lamido, as secretary of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) – the party whose candidate, MKO Abiola, won the June 12 election – was among those who failed to oppose the military’s injustice. The SDP leadership, including Mr Lamido and chairman Tony Anenih, wrote their names in the book of infamy by surrendering the people’s mandate without resistance. To their eternal shame, Messrs Lamido and Anenih teamed up with the defeated National Republican Convention to deny Abiola his mandate. … In sharp contrast, Bola Tinubu stood firm even before General Abacha dissolved the political parties and all democratic institutions, including the National Assembly, on 17 November 1993, following his coup.”

    Moreover, in a 25 June, 2025 interview on Channels Television, Senator Shehu Sani said: “The contribution of Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the struggle for the restoration and revalidation of the June 12 mandate was unequaled and unparalleled by anybody in the political realm.… In fact, the first time I met him was in the sitting room of Chief MKO Abiola [along with] the late Dr. Beko [Ransome Kuti] and Frederick Fasheun … strategising on how to mobilise a national resistance and a national protest at that very era. Tinubu played a pivotal role in triggering a national uprising that gave birth to the recognition of June 12 decades after. … Lamido played a role in Abiola’s victory, but he was absent in the resistance, and as far the resistance was concerned, Tinubu was in the forefront.”

    With the sudden death of the Head of State, General Sani Abacha, on 8 June, 1998, General Abubakar Abdulsalami became the new Head of State and drew a swift timetable for the return of democratic governance on 29 May, 1999, ushering in the Nigerian Fourth Republic. The more liberal outlook of the Abdulsalami military regime paved the way for many of the pro-democracy activists in exile, including Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to return to Nigeria to take part in the new politics enabled by the new administration.

    Tinubu contested the governorship election for Lagos State on the platform of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) which was a party formed by Afenifere. He won and was Governor of Lagos State from 29 May, 1999 to 29 May, 2007. Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, former military Head of State, who became the first democratically-elected President of Nigeria in the Fourth Republic, did not find it easy adjusting to the appreciably liberal nature of democratic governance.

    To President Obasanjo, it was an afront for Tinubu, the Governor of Lagos State, to create Area Councils in the state. For this reason, the allocations due to Lagos State from the Federation Account were withheld. The Lagos State Government approached the Court, and the Supreme Court ruled the Obasanjo administration’s action illegal and ordered the release of the withheld funds to the state. However, the Obasanjo-led Federal Government did not comply with the Supreme Court judgement. This was a flagrant contempt of the Supreme Court and an attack on the rule of law which is one of the major pillars on which democracy rests.

    Obasanjo’s manifestation of discontent with the democratic principle of separation of powers and his lack of respect for the free choice of the people was also shown in his attempt to muscle victory. In 1999, the bulk of the South-west voters did not support him at the ballot box. Being from the South-west himself, this amounted to a big source of embarrassment. To remedy the situation, Obasanjo approached the leaders of Afenifere and AD with a plea. He wanted the South-west to give him handsome votes in 2003.

    One of the terms of the agreement was that the South-west AD members would vote for him in the presidential elections, and he would work for the South-west AD governors in the gubernatorial elections. The governors fulfilled their part, but Obasanjo did not fulfil his own. So, while he earned good votes in the South-west and won in the zone, the acquiescent AD governors lost their seats to Obasanjo’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The only governor who didn’t swallow the bait was Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

    Referring to this episode, on June 12, 2025, a day that had been thoughtfully and duly declared by President Muhammadu Buhari as Democracy Day in Nigeria in honour of Bashorun MKO Abiola’s victory, Tinubu said in his speech to the National Assembly: “In 2003, when the then-governing party tried to sweep the nation clean of political opposition through plot and manipulation, I was the last of the progressive governors standing in my region. … My allies had been induced into defeat. My adversaries held all the cards that mortal man could carry. Even with all of that, they could not control our national destiny because fate is written from above.”

    Relating this to the allegation that the Tinubu administration and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) were working to turn Nigeria into a one-party state, the President said: “Look at my political history. I would be the last person to advocate such a scheme.” He also noted: “A greater power did not want Nigeria to become a one-party state back then. Nigeria will not become such a state now.”

    Even with respect to the APC, some believe that Malam Nasir El-Rufai’s inability to scale through the Senate ministerial screening in 2023 led him to defect from the APC, and become a strident critic of both the party and the president. Former Governor Rotimi Amaechi, in his case, didn’t leave the party, but due to his loss in the 2022 APC primary election to then-Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, he seems to have become an inconsolable critic of the winner. Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, who was the candidate of the PDP in the 2023 presidential election has also been an implacable critic of the president.

    These political figures are part of a coalition named the All Democratic Alliance with the principal declared aim of stopping President Tinubu from winning a second term election in 2027. The National Chairman of the new SDP, Shehu Gabam, noted, in a 24 June, 2025 press conference, that there are certain “forces of the coalition who believe that SDP must be hijacked at all cost or who believe crisis must be induced in SDP because they couldn’t hijack SDP.”

    Democracy is by nature conflictual, and such conflicts where properly moderated can propel growth. It is necessary to assess the extent to which these conflicts, instances of which are mentioned above, have been managed in the Nigerian experience, and which expectations for development citizens should realistically have.