Category: Sunday

  • Ndume’s assault on facts and history

    Ndume’s assault on facts and history

    Senator Ali Ndume (Borno South) has done all in his power to posture as a man of candour. Since winning election and representing Chibok/Damboa/Gwoza constituency in 2003 in the House of Representatives, he has not looked back, and has not been fettered by any electoral loss save the troubles his frankness and idealism have brought him. Brilliant (having graduated magna cum laude from the University of Toledo in Ohio United States), and fearless, (having fought many a political battle and suffered grave injuries), he has remained undaunted by opposition and by facts that sometimes unsettle his suppositions and conclusions. He must be doing many things right in his constituency to have won promotion to the senate in 2011 where he has remained ensconced despite his prejudices and fallibilities.

    On June 8, undeterred by the constant explosions of his myths and hyperboles, the gritty senator took on President Bola Tinubu on television by denouncing the endorsements the All Progressives Congress (APC) has received ahead of the 2027 presidential poll. To Sen. Ndume’s unhappiness, some 22 governors have so far endorsed the president for the poll. That’s nothing, fumed the senator, some 22 governors also endorsed ex-president Goodluck Jonathan for the 2015 poll and still lost the election. As he snorted: “It happened before, not once, not twice. It happened during Jonathan’s presidency. That does not mean anything. Politicians are decamping, but the people who are the voters are not decamping. I don’t have access to Mr President, but I hope that he would look back historically and see that the gathering of people to endorse you does not mean anything. Jonathan had 22 governors then endorsing him, like was done now. And what happened? Jonathan lost woefully. And even that time, what happened? A lot of money was spent – over N2 billion or whatever. Even the election was shifted, but we are not learning our lessons. I pity Mr President for this kind of thing.”

    Read Also: Ndume denies Boko Haram attacked ex-COAS Buratai

    It may very well turn out that the endorsements may be overstated, but Sen. Ndume took too much liberty with facts by exaggerating Dr Jonathan’s endorsements. The former president did not have more than 16 governors endorsing him for the 2015 poll, not 22. Yes, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) controlled 22 states at the time, but some five of them had aligned their goals and destinies with the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC) shortly before the presidential election. Dr Jonathan’s camp was unfortunately depleted in 2015. However, this was not the first time the Borno senator would be engaging in flagrant distortions. In 2017, with his characteristic candour unsupported by any investigations whatsoever, he accused former senate president Bukola Saraki of getting enmeshed in a scandal involving the violation of Customs and Excise regulations, and Dino Melaye, another senator at the time, of brandishing a fake university certificate. He was to apologise days later, but not before he was suspended for six months for unjustifiably traducing his colleagues.

    Does Sen. Ndume learn from his many verbal and legislative mishaps? No. That would not be in his character. Not only does he make mistakes, many of them shocking and profound, he also doubles down on his errors and even sometimes tries to canonise them.

    He revelled in similar fallacies two Fridays ago when he gleefully spoke about Boko Haram attacks on former Chief of Army Staff Tukur Buratai. He had said: “We are in a dire security situation. Just two days ago, Buratai was attacked at the front operations base in Borno. His team responded gallantly, but the insurgents managed to destroy several military assets. The situation in Borno is deteriorating rapidly. Insurgents now move freely, torching and stealing military equipment. It is becoming a full-blown crisis. All six geopolitical zones are experiencing security challenges to varying degrees. All six geopolitical zones are experiencing security challenges to varying degrees. Even in the South-South, we are grappling with economic sabotage like oil theft. At this point, the South-West appears to be the only relatively safe region.” But as soon as flak started to fly, he backed down and said he was misquoted. He insisted he spoke about an attack on Buratai town, not on the former army chief himself. He was of course more likely to have spoken about an attack on the army chief, instead of the town itself. But if he insists there was no such attack on the person of the former army chief, so be it. However, what made the story worthy of headlines in nearly all newspapers, thereby according it more oomph than it deserved, was the senator’s characteristic hyperbole. Reassuringly, it was obvious the army chief was uninterested in joining issues with him, perhaps recognising that it was the senator’s habit to cry and see wolf where none existed. But trust the senator to promote more hysteria.

    If he is as thoughtful as his office requires, and a little more reluctant to attack the government of the day, he will be less inclined to talking up a storm anytime he speaks, and even more admiringly providing depth and answers to the puzzles he raises with gusto. He referenced the instability and chaos in Nigeria’s five geopolitical zones, singling out the sixth, the Southwest, for praise. But he offered no clue why the sixth is rather safer and more developed than the rest. Might it be their secularism, their liberalism, their great historical conurbation, or anything nuanced and subliminal? Or does he think it is merely coincidental? Is he aware that the country’s common malaise is also beginning to erode the Southwest’s values? Sen. Ndume should kindly let his interventions be less acerbic and hyperbolic, capable of shedding more light on current social and political challenges, and explicating deep economic matters upon which he has sometimes imprecated ignorantly?

  • Still on one-party bogeyman

    Still on one-party bogeyman

    Last week, a senior special assistant to the president on public affairs, Aliyu Audu, resigned his appointment because he claimed to detect a creeping imposition of one-party system designed to replace federal or multiparty system. He offered no real grounds for his conclusions other than his presumption that the ongoing defections to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) smacked of budding dictatorship. Yet, he was an assistant on public affairs. No, he wasn’t miffed by the defections; he probably found himself, perhaps together with a few sulking others like him, becoming less relevant in the scheme of things. Idle and depressed by a lack of relevance, he simply flung the towel at his bosses.

    Read Also: Tinubu dismisses one-party state agenda, welcomes defectors to APC

    Too many politicians and commentators appear to believe, without substantiation, that the defections to the ruling party, which are unlikely to reach the 28 or 30 that defected to the PDP during the Olusegun Obasanjo presidency, might herald a one-party state. If a one-party state could not be achieved when the PDP attained overwhelming dominance of the polity, why does anyone think it could be achieved now when the APC has 22 governorship seats in its pocket? It is simply part of the rhetoric of the next presidential poll in 2027, for which a bogeyman had to be found quickly to defang the ruling party and create a groundswell of resentment against the government. Had the same shoe been on the other foot in alignment with the goals of the opposition, it would be celebrations all the way instead of the metaphoric burning of effigies.

  • An evening with President Abiola

    An evening with President Abiola

    It was a scene out of the Roman Empire in all its glory and grandeur. The din was impossible, yet there was something sedulous and magical about this display of power at its awesome summit. It was medieval pageantry in Technicolor; a brilliant fusion of the traditional and the modern. A very important man was traversing the highway between mortality and immortality.

        Horses and horsemen collide with outriders and state of the art limousines. State spooks mingle with traditional enforcers dressed like local hunters. An empty gold chariot blasted its way through, heralding the imminent arrival of his imperial majesty, even as a remarkably ugly masquerade which reminded one of an ill-tempered hippopotamus began to press its luck with the crowd. He was Pakaleke, a.k.a the devil of Apataganga.

        From the distance, a dancing procession was approaching. The law enforcement agents were beginning to have problems with the rowdy crowd. As they surged forward, they were beaten back with batons and horsewhips. Everybody was trying to catch a glimpse of the royal carnival. This was not a scene to miss. In his youth and penurious prime, his majesty was known as a dancer and drummer of exceptional endowments. And judging from the royal harem, his prodigious appetite for ravishing beauties remained undimmed by time and tribulation.

        As the dancing procession drew nearer, you could swear that you knew the king somewhere. There was something faintly familiar and yet oddly distant about him; an otherworldly aura of perfect self-control and inner tranquillity. But by now, the lead drummer was getting in the way of the cognitive senses. A brilliant purveyor of social acrimony, he was panning out litigious lyrics with savage delight and with his face permanently contorted in subversive exertion.

     Omo agbon jeje bi eniti o r’obinrin ri

     Beni aya nbe nile; omo nbe nile

        Sugbon obinrin dudu obinrin pupa

     Olorun maje o kuku obinrin.

      And later in response to the din:

         Dami dami dami, Ologundudu

          Dami, dami dami, ariwo majesin

          Kii pa alakara, dami dami dami.

    And much later:

    Gbedogbedo kan o le gb’agogo

     Akanbata o le kan lekun

      Alagbede o le r’ojugun

      Pejapeja o le p’olorun oba

      Oro t’eso pe sobe, pe sobe

       Eyin le so, eyin leso.

      By now as this riotous carnival came into full view, the ever joyous visage, the kind compassionate features, the in your face, devil may care bravura of an Alpha male in full menace, had become unmistakable. He was even more noble of carriage and majestic of mien. Yet like all artists, he had a remarkable sense of rhythm and cadence and was responding to the inner music with a feline suppleness and glorious flair that drew rapturous applause from the crowd. The jaw dropped in awe and astonishment and before you could pronounce the name, the riotous crowd had beaten you to it.

       “It is President Abiola in triumphal procession”, they chanted in unison. The good people of Nigeria, irrespective of race, region and religion, spoke seventeen years ago. And now power is concurring. History shall vindicate the just indeed.

        It has taken a tectonic shift from the template of evil misgovernance to acknowledge the obvious truth that whatever his personal failings and the objective contradictions of the circumstances, Abiola is a hero of democracy in Nigeria. It is not how you begin that matters but how you end up. The fallen hero may yet be forgiven, but it does not vitiate the claim of the emergent hero.

    Read Also: MKO Abiola: The untold story of a metaphor

       Seventeen years ago in June 1993, Nigerians spoke in unison against the barbarity of military rule. Fourteen million of them voted, nine of these for MKO Abiola, charismatic mogul and candidate of the Social Democratic Party. The victory in itself was a political odyssey whose story has never been told in full. Abiola outgunned and outfoxed the military High Command who were expecting a different outcome which would have made their job easier.

    In the event, the military still went ahead to annul the freest and fairest election so far in the history of the nation. It led to a five-year low intensity civil war in which many perished and the Nigerian military junta anathematised by the civilised world. Till date, many still carry the traumatic wounds of that encounter.  There were many, this writer included, who were not Abiola’s fans and who never met him on a one on one basis but who chose to fight on the side of truth and freedom. We chose to lose all, rather than be ruled by primitive predators. A nation-state is not a military or feudal fiefdom.

    As the carnival drew nearer, snooper thought that Goodluck Jonathan ought to be commended for finding the inner strength and resolve to acknowledge the obvious, unlike his mentor and benefactor who, consumed by hatred, irrational envy and petty venom, could not even bring himself to pronounce the name of Abiola. The greatest beneficiary of the June 12 struggle could not abide its greatest martyr and casualty even in death. But as it has been noted, a man may make for himself a throne of bayonets, whether he will be able to sit on it is the question.

    Now that he has taken the tentative step, snooper wondered, Jonathan should be encouraged to go the whole hog in order to bring the necessary closure to this open sore of the modern Nigerian nation. Abiola should be declared a posthumous president of Nigeria with commensurate edification. Truth is constant and steady and no matter how fast a lie travels ahead, it will eventually be overtaken by the truth.

    But judging from the mood of the crowd, If Jonathan does not immortalise Abiola, a future government will after the current farce must have run its course. This is a historic wager which will come to pass soon, no matter what anybody does or fails to do. Jonathan should ask himself why the sudden and vociferous cries for electoral reforms even after his principal had famously and characteristically pooh-poohed the idea. Electoral chicanery, just like annulment, leads to a breakdown of government and governance, not to talk of international derision and opprobrium.

        By now, the din had died down. All the revellers had disappeared. A celestial calm enveloped the universe. In the distance, a few female praise singers could be heard chanting the heroic panegyrics of the first posthumous president of Nigeria. But the late tycoon was nowhere to be found. Even the mad drummer, Ayanlere, with his droopy and dolorous visage, had disappeared. The wild drumming had now been replaced by an Ebenezer Obey classic in honour of the late tycoon.

    Balogun Ojoo, baba Bada, badabarawu

    Ti nbari balogun lehin mi

     Inu mi a dun, ara mi a ya gaga

     Odede lowa tabi yara logbe wa

    T’oba ti gb’ohun mi o

    Masun mawo maa bo, Ologundudu

    Masun mawo maa bo, oko Atinuke….

           Baba Kolawole mi o ire.

    Snooper had slept, joyous but exhausted, with a crushing pile of newspapers containing President Jonathan’s proclamation about Abiola’s heroic stature. In the last stages of consciousness, this avalanche of printed matter began crushing the neck as it made its way to the bare floor. This was a sure recipe for political hallucination. A mobile handset was beginning to slide down towards the buccal cavity now made more cavernous by sheer exhaustion. Suddenly, there was a door from nowhere and as it opened lo it was the late tycoon resplendent and well-rested smiling his famous cherubic smile. The chief was obviously in a bantering mood as he opened up with his famous fusillade of native wisecracks and witticism.

       “Chief, congrats on your posthumous apotheosis”, snooper opened cautiously.

       “ Ah, apoti osi ko, apoti ogun ni.  Oyinbo ti poju .(Haba grammar is too much)  Agboyinbo ki ku le”, the chief replied with devastating wit and local brio.

       “I mean a serving Nigerian president has conceded that you are a hero”, snooper pressed as he suppressed an urge to laugh.

        “Ah you see, I told them you cannot abort a full pregnancy. Ti o  bape titi akalolo a pe baba” the great chief retorted.

        “We must now await the formal proclamation”, snooper continued.

        “ Ah leave them. Adie tosu ti o to, ara e lowa”, the chief observed with fortitude.

        “Even Babangida has joined the chorus”, snooper noted with a hint of disapproval.

        “Ah leave Ibrahim out of it. Omo buruku n’ijo tie. Besides, as our people say, makanmakan loye. A man that is being pursued by a masquerade should take heart, because as people of this world get tired, so do people of the other world.”, the chief noted with a deadpan demeanour.

       “Sir, please explain,” snooper pleaded.

        “You see, Ibrahim is not alone in this thing. When a man says he is Dodondawa, you must know that there is a problem, because Dodo o dawa. Enia lowa lehin dodo to fi ni ohun ni Dodondawa” the chief explained with an even more recondite Yoruba saying.

        “Ah chief, how do you mean?” snooper pressed.

        “Wo iwo omokunrin yi ma fitina mi. (Youngman, don’t trouble me) You see, it is like the case of a masquerade who is killed by a lorry and the people are saying that he has gone back to heaven. Very soon, the mother of the missing will ask for her son”, the chief concluded with wit and calm forbearance.

        Snooper decided to change the topic.

        “Chief, is that not an empty bottle of stout I am looking at under your bed?” snooper queried in a mischievous tone.

        “Ah, some people came and I entertained them. In any case, when you recite the Quran up to the point of rabana, omi amala loku.”, he replied with a boyish grin.

       By now snooper could not resist a wild laugh of relish at the great man’s native wisdom and traditional savvy. He was eyeing me with the poker-faced perspicuity of a traditional savant. Here was the Griot-president Nigeria never had.

      “Chief, by the way, have you seen Alhaji Abubakar Rimi?” snooper asked MKO.

       “Ah, is he here? O ntan lo na niyen. You see, it is like the case of the man who was caught in bed with his own daughter in- law. When he was asked what he thought he was doing, the old man replied, well, gentlemen, e ti gbo? Then it is almost over, it will soon be over”.

         At this point, the bed lamp, dragged by the cord of the mobile set, hit snooper on the ridge of the nose, sending him awake with a crushing pain. It was midnight in Lagos.

    • First published in June, 2010. Now being republished by popular demand.
  • Baba Lekki storms Panti building as Okon calls out Senator Kiti-Kiti

    Baba Lekki storms Panti building as Okon calls out Senator Kiti-Kiti

    The muted celebrations of the Sallah having petered out, Baba Lekki lapsed into a protracted meditative mood and mode. The old contrarian had spent the entire period holed up with his bosom childhood friend, Ibrahim Domingo, who had managed to slaughter a scrawny fowl to commemorate the occasion. This was in response to the biting economic condition. Of solid old Brazilian-Lagosian stock, Ibrahim Domingo was given to Sufi mysticism and end-of-the world-as-we know-it intellectual peregrinations. The dearth of good Sallah ram meat was to be regretted, but if this would cure the denizens of the biggest black nation on earth of their red tooth, the development was wholly welcome, the old man miserably concluded. By red tooth, the old scoundrel meant a predilection for the unrestrained consumption of raw red meat which harks back to some old cannibalistic ethos wired into the DNA of the Black person. But on Monday evening, the old man broke free of his meditative trance. He was back in his warlike default mode. He had bumped into Okon in a nearby street while the crazy boy was moonlighting as an itinerant cobbler.

     “Okon, I am going to Panti Building. Enough of this nonsense”, Baba Lekki growled.

      “Baba, abi dem don nab you for Indian hemp again? “ Okon sniggered.

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      “You are a fool. I am not going to that Panti “, Baba Lekki fumed, hiding a miserable grin.

       “Baba, I don tell you I no dey go near dem Panti place. Na like dis dem Yoruba people go dey put people for trouble. Dem last time for Panti, he get one Sergeant Pepper from Owo and him finis me. Him wan pull out my front teeth with dem old klipa. That one na real scorpion and him don be sergeant for fifty years. Even dem big policeman for Abuja dey dobale for am”, Okon croaked, looking furtively across his shoulder. The old codger could no longer contain his mirth.

      “Okon, I say you are a fool. This is not that Panti, na another Panti be dis one”, Baba Lekki croaked as he convulsed with laughter.

       “So, which one be dis oo?” Okon demanded with a cynical grin.

        “ Na where dem dey warehouse dem abandoned and displaced and yeye politicians, flotsam and jetsam of Nigerian politics. Dem boku there. Na from there dem go transfer them to dem main dining hall after proper registration”, the old man responded matter-of-factly.

       “Baba, wetin be flosam and jesam?” the boy demanded.

       “Rubbish and refuse meant for the dunghill. They contaminate everything. They pollute everywhere and by the time they finish with their invasion nobody will be able to recognize Akanbi or his party again”, Baba Lekki charged, trembling with indignation.

       “Excuse me baba, how dat one go bring down the price of garri and manpower? Se na defection we go chop?”

       “You are a bloody fool. Isn’t that what we are talking about?” the old man fumed as he stormed off with Okon in hot pursuit. “Baba, baba!!” the crazy boy screamed at the old man. “As you dey go meet dem panti politician, he get one of them who get juju pass dem Arochukwu people. Him be Senator Kitikiti Wotowoto and him owe man small change from last job. But tell am say as dem dey decamp, na so people dey camp too”

  • SNAPSONG 258 II

    SNAPSONG 258 II

    He knows no difference

         Between the truth and the lie

    Profanity gallops out of his mouth

         Like a rabid horse from a troubled stable

    His syllables stumble on the outcrop

         Of an oversize tongue

    His consonants are brittle bones

         Constantly at war with peace  

    Falsehoods come naturally to him

         Compulsive and serially insane

    “If you say the sun rises in the west

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         He once declared, “just stick to the line

    And watch the people swear

         By the veracity of your science”

    For him truth is the way it is

         Because of the way they say it is not

    Seal up the schools

         Latch up the labs

    Drag out the dons

         And trash their stubborn tomes

    Defund their dreams  

         And tame their thoughts

    Teach them the way

         To bend and bow

  • Tinubu, Wike and APC

    Tinubu, Wike and APC

    President Bola Tinubu can’t seem to resist taking a dig at the floundering Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). In his inaugural State of the Union address before a joint session of the National Assembly on June 12, the president suggested that the opposition should put their house in order instead of crying wolf over one-party state. “It is indeed a pleasure to witness you in such disarray,” he quipped. But a more telling quip came when he commissioned a road project undertaken by FCT minister Nyesom Wike. He said: “We have somebody in Nyesom Wike. He’s not a member of my party, not yet, but the day he changes his mind and registers with progressives, we will welcome him because we will enjoy him singing ‘as e dey pain them, e dey sweet us’.”

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    The president may be openly enamoured of Mr Wike, but as long as the FCT minister can continue to engage successfully in the most disingenuous political straddle ever in Nigeria, nothing will compel him to make a choice between his concupiscent attraction to the APC and his cuckolding of the PDP. It suits his unorthodox politics to have his cake and eat it too. The PDP is incensed to be openly and contemptuously cuckolded, and the APC is beside itself having a piece of the Casanova. But with two lovers flanking him, Mr Wike is delirious. There is indication the PDP is nearing the end of its tether, and may soon damn the consequences and get rid of the FCT minister; but they are sobered by the fear that it might amount to cutting their nose to spite their face. Yet they must do something.

    If the APC can tease nature to keep the PDP disquieted until a little later, or at least until it sunders irreparably, then they would feel accomplished. It is useless guessing how the dice would roll. After all, all sides to the ongoing farce know they are gambling, and will continue their indulgence until the crisis comes to a head sooner or later.

  • The Fubara/Rivers snafu defies resolution

    The Fubara/Rivers snafu defies resolution

    Before May 29, some Rivers State indigenes entertained high hopes that the suspended Rivers State governor Siminalayi Fubara would be reinstated. Since 1999, May 29 has become symbolic in Nigeria’s political calendar. It was, therefore, expected that President Bola Tinubu would be inspired by that symbolism to end the proclamation of a state of emergency in the state. The suspension was, however, not lifted. Newspapers then gave wing to stories of Mr Fubara’s reinstatement on June 12 as a fitting gift to Rivers to mark Democracy Day. Indeed, days before, after visiting the president in Lagos, the governor had enabled stories of imminent restoration of his governorship. That also didn’t happen. The governor, not to say his aides and supporters whom he has begun to restrain from their customary loquaciousness and cantankerousness, may begin getting desperate as time goes on.

    That would be a mistake. First, after privately but unsuccessfully energising agitations to defeat the emergency proclamation, Mr Fubara later expected that somehow, by some political sculduggery, he would be restored in less than a month. It was obvious he missed the real reasons for his suspension: the impression he gave that he was above the law, that he could defy and subjugate the legislature, and also determine what parts of the Supreme Court judgement he would comply with, redact or implement with considerable abridgement. The federal government simply read mutiny into his doings and statements, especially when he began to caress amateur revolutionaries clumsily borrowing from the rule book of pipeline sabotage. To secure reinstatement, he would need to prove fealty to the constitution and the rule of law, and demonstrate by words and actions that he had a lofty appreciation of the two concepts.

    In many respects, however, Mr Fubara is not cut from that cloth of deep cogitations. He has a distorted comprehension of the rule of law, and has not shown indication of any readiness to take lessons on, or abide with, the provisions of the constitution he took oath to execute, in fact justifying his aggression and defiance on the grounds of the democratic malfeasance and excesses of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) minister Nyesom Wike. His peace moves have so far been desultory, reflecting his desperation rather than his conviction. In April, in company with a few Southwest governors and political leaders, he had audience with his nemesis Mr Wike in the search for peace. His host reflected upon that meeting on April 18 and hinted at a subsequent media chat where he holds flamboyant and sometimes inquisitorial court that he was unsure he saw genuineness in the governor’s intentions. Despite being guarded in his comment on Mr Fubara’s shuttle diplomacy, if not subtly intransigent, Mr Wike has nonetheless been more perceptive.

    As part of his peace efforts, the suspended governor has since gone on, perhaps symbolically as his enemies argued, to direct his supporters to stop complicating his rapprochement with his bitter mentor by their verbal fusillades. Mr Fubara has found it difficult restraining his fanatical supporters. They may comply with his wishes, but they have privately seethed with resentment. But needs must when the devil drives. The governor has intensified his peace moves, even travelling overseas to confer with the president during his last presidential trip. Their discussions have, however, been kept relatively sealed, with some unnamed sources suggesting that both parties were near a resolution. Nearly three months after emergency rule started, there are again suggestions that the whole crisis might be sorted out finally. Mr Wike’s supporters scorn the suggestions, insisting that it would amount to building something on nothing, for according to them they are yet to see any genuine moves for reconciliation. They are not any more right than Mr Fubara is pretentious.

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    President Tinubu, not Mr Fubara or Mr Wike, is probably in a quandary. Both the FCT minister and governor understand the travesty of their roles in the emergency proclamation, and are cocksure they are baiting each other. As the referee, however, the president may probably be truly under pressure to blow the whistle to end the game one way or the other. He could cut to the chase and decide to end emergency rule for the sake of democracy, or he might resist pressure and seem to side with Mr Wike whom he has consistently praised to the heavens for both his work ethic and loyalty. Whatever he decides and whenever he does it, it is unlikely he or the FCT minister can really mould the governor into what he is fundamentally not. Mr Fubara, this column has consistently maintained, is flawed, truly and tragically flawed. But so, too, is Mr Wike who consistently undermines his own position by his tactless and unedifying approach to his combat with the governor. The president can’t leave the problem unresolved; for even if he does not end emergency rule after three months or before the six-month expiry date in the first instance, he still cannot leave it intractable. No one envies the president. While he may find Mr Wike an asset, and has rhapsodised him repeatedly for being the ultimate civil servant, he cannot imbue his ministers’ style of combat with any nobility whatsoever, just as he cannot genetically reengineer Mr Fubara.

    What is certain for now is that the president will remain unperturbed by any consideration of round dates – three months anniversary or any other anniversary for that matter. It does not of course require any gift of clairvoyance to know that the president will end emergency rule sometime in the future; but given the seemingly irresoluble dilemmas he must contend with, he will do so with a heavy heart. In the end, the two combatants, complete with their agitated and instigative supporters, not to say the president who is at the moment on the horns of a dilemma, will call time on their wars and help sustain a tentative peace for the duration of Mr Fubara’s tenure. The Rivers crisis is a thoroughly bad case the combatants must both manage gingerly and learn to live with, even if it gives them nightmares.

  • Combustible Middle East

    Combustible Middle East

    To every perceptive international relations expert, it was clear that when the Palestinian group Hamas stepped on the tail of the Israeli adder two Octobers ago, the Middle East would change in ways no one could have predicted years ago. With Gaza’s Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and Yemen’s Houthis serving as Iran’s proxy armies and imperial teeth in the region, Israel has picked up the gauntlet and struck all the proxies and their master severely in the past few months. But it is getting much worse, and the Middle East may change more radically than it has done so far.

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    Last week, by blitzing Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities and decapitating a section of its military leadership and injuring its national pride, Israel has in short declared war. Iran’s response, including how the tit for tat escalates, will determine just how fundamentally and radically the region will change. The notable thing about this latest fiery exchange is not who is right or wrong, but how immoderately Iran talked itself into a bind from which it cannot easily extricate itself, especially being encompassed by neighbours fearful of its imperial agenda than Israel’s zionism. Expect political tragedies, including endangered governments, at the end of this crisis as the situation gets very costly, bloody and messy in both Iran and Israel.

  • Nigerian democracy more threatened than acknowledged

    Nigerian democracy more threatened than acknowledged

    It is inaccurate to suggest that since 1999 most Nigerians have found their country’s democratic record fascinating. When ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo won the 1999 poll, the opposition secretly harboured the desire for poll abortion. When Umaru Yar’Adua won a fractious poll in 2007, admitting along the way its failings, condemnations rang out that democracy was troubled and undesirable. When Goodluck Jonathan won a bad-tempered poll in 2011, massacres broke out in parts of the North, with the losers indirectly instigating the crisis. And when Bola Tinubu won the poll in 2023, beneficiaries of past poll victories, including Chief Obasanjo who ruled between 1999 and 2007, worked for the abortion of the polls or, worse, a revolution. Incited and tormented, opposition supporters and religious and ethnic bigots seized the opportunity to call for a coup d’etat or revolution. Nigerian politicians and past or party leaders who advocated for drastic actions to undermine democracy because of defeat reflect the uncomfortable truth that despite achieving 26 years of unbroken democracy, the idea of civil government is yet to take firm root. To them, democracy is dispensable.

    In celebrating more than two and a half decades of democracy last month, a few Nigerian political leaders and commentators promised that democracy had come to stay. They are wrong. Neither the passage of time nor the purity of a democratic system promises the survival or longevity of democracy. Under the Weimer Republic system (a federal system comprising 18 states, and electing a president every seven years), Germany turned to democracy in 1918 after the disastrous World War I that led to the collapse of the Second Reich. Fifteen years later, in 1933, German democracy was gone, its death knell sounded by the events that followed the Wall Street crash of 1929. As the election of Donald Trump is showing in the United States, with his relentless demyelination of the US constitution to wear it down in favour of the rule of the strongman, nothing guarantees the permanence of democracy. Russia also enjoyed a brief period with democracy, starting with a parliamentary election in 1989, and on to the election of Boris Yeltsin in 1991 and 1996, Vladimir Putin in 2000 and 2004, and Dmitry Medvedev in 2008. By the time the presidency reverted to Mr Putin in 2012, after he had made Mr Medvedev a placeholder for four years, the office and all pretence to elections had turned Mr Putin into a dictator. Democracy in Russia simply suffered escalating denudation.

    Nigerians may be celebrating 26 years of democracy and promising themselves that it had come to stay, the truth is, however, a little different and more unnerving. Since the 2023 All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential poll victory, opposition leaders and closet ethnic champions have refused to accept defeat despite clear evidence they had no path to victory. They argued implausibly that the poll was grossly undermined by electoral fraud. They also turned a blind eye to the fact that the winner, President Tinubu, lost his base, Lagos, lost his predecessor’s base, Katsina, lost his presumed state, Osun, and equally lost Kano and Kaduna where he was backed by powerful party chieftains, all pointers to the integrity of the process. The controversy over Rivers votes did not indicate that the overall presidential election result would have been substantially different nationally. Nevertheless, the opposition has kept up a barrage of incendiary messages likely to be sustained in 2027. Worse, the opposition is laying the foundation for deploying ethnic and religious propaganda as well as threats of violence in the coming poll.

    If Nigeria surmounts the opposition’s general lack of sensitivity to the delicateness of its democracy and the overweening politics of the ruling party, it will still not guarantee the survival of democracy. Tragically, there is the axis of revolt going on in parts of the country: banditry is laying the Northwest waste, foreign and even local herdsmen attacks are pursuing their genocidal and land seizure goals in the Middle Belt, Boko Haram/ISWAP insurgency is suffocating the Northeast, and unknown gunmen are bleeding and retarding the Southeast. These agents of destabilisation are all ramping up their attacks, and it may be safe to assume that should they not be sufficiently checked in the months ahead, they will constitute a huge threat to the integrity of the coming polls, not to talk of the peace and stability of the country as a whole. In fact there are days when it looked dangerously possible that both the political opposition and insurgents would have the upper hand. In an election year, if the tactics of the insurgents and the political opposition are not altered, it could spell disaster.

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    The problem of Nigerian democracy is not so much its imperfect constitution, which is admittedly more unitary than federal; the problem is the political elite who are unable to sensibly gauge the troubles assailing the rest of the world in order to moderate their often disruptive and fanatical quests for power. The US has abandoned its traditional role in the preservation of world order, thereby rendering the world less safe; the Sudan has imploded after uncertain steps in the direction of democracy, while the Darfur is ravaged by genocidal militias pursuing ethnic cleansing agenda; Somalia has proved difficult to weld back together after decades of chaos; Russia and Ukraine are at daggers drawn, with no hope of peace in sight; and the Middle East has in the past two years been turned into a killing field, threatening to get far worse than projected. If the global economy, now subjected to repeated stress, should tank and create the kind of conditions the world experienced in 1929, world peace would be significantly impacted. Unfortunately, the Nigerian political elite are unable to read the signs of the times. Their exuberance and general political dereliction have created a national powder keg waiting to explode at any moment.

    It is cold comfort that the Nigerian economy is on the path of recovery after hovering for years on the edge of collapse. But the fallout and harsh impact of economic crisis on the lower and middle classes have become fodder for the opposition. For a democracy that continues to teeter dangerously on the brink, it is catastrophic to see the Nigerian political elite engage in brinkmanship capable of triggering a huge explosion. In addition to the role being played by the political elite, it is also frightening to imagine all kinds of apocalyptic possibilities that could shatter a democracy undergirded by a weak constitution and even weaker institutions. Democracy is not an abstraction; it is in some ways the sum total of a people’s cultures and ambitions. It will not survive simply because it is 26 years old, or because the people wish it to survive, or because God so loved Nigeria. It will survive if the country would stop living in denial, and embark on erecting powerful guardrails for its survival, including creating a balanced and durable political structure that factor in ethnic, religious and regional differences.  

  • SNAPSONG 257I

    SNAPSONG 257I

    Total rulers command

     They never obey

    The only summons they heed

    Is the swing of the dangling prey

    I I I I I I I I

    Of the blind and snarling Braggart 

    The only thing he sees

    Is the world beneath his foot 

    The Tar the tar the tar Tariff-King

    Ariff ariff, a riffraff riff

    Tar the world to death

     Riff away their ribs

    In this brave new world

    Of Tit-for-Tat

    My Tit is a billion times

    Bigger than your tiny Tat

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    Let the Big eat the Small

    So the Small becomes the smaller

    A Mimic Fuhrer is back in town   

    Decreeing the world to kiss his ass

    Season of Cruelty, season of Darkness

    But crueller rains have fallen before

    And the noontide Sun has scorched their scorpions. 

    It is Humanity’s eternal blessing that Evil is not immortal