The Nation Newspaper

Category: Sunday

Africa’s coming of age and Nigeria-Ghana’s example

The week rolled by as usual, paying no cognizance to its own unusual character. It was meant to be unusual because it was the second week in the year 2025; as it would be in the past, it was expected to be sluggish and lazy, not seeing much activities because most people were meant to still be in the holiday mood. It was not so, especially for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who has kept up a racy, busy office culture. He has never allowed any holiday stand in the way of official duties, especially if there is an issue to get thrashed in the process of achieving a functional, model African nation.

You will recall that during the Christmas and New Year holidays, though he was supposedly on vacation in Lagos, he was still busy receiving guests and treating issues of state; either those having to do with our local matters and those of regional concerns, as he is the Chairman of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of the ECOWAS. So the pace of his week’s activities were as steady and fast as ever, it was a work-ful week for him.

If you are conversant with the Nigerian President, you would have observednthat his heart and ideas are bigger than just leading Nigeria and confining himself to this corner of the world. Tinubu has shown over the years that his leadership ideals and philosophy are global in perspective. He has propounded and expressed views on how diplomatic conducts between the Global North and South ought to be conducted, especially between Africa and the developed nations of Europe, America, the Middle East and the East.

He was presented with another platform on Tuesday where he passed his shade of Pan-Africanism to those who need to be told the truth about us as a race. He was at the inauguration ceremony of Ghana’s new President, John Dramani Mahama, where he was the Special Guest of Honour, both because he has a long standing relationship with the new President, who by the way was taking the saddle in a second coming, and as the head of the ECOWAS. He was given the stage to make a speech and he did not fail to sound a message to the rest of the world.

His message, cryptic as it was, addressed the new President, the people of Ghana, even the African continent, but most significantly, it sent something out to the rest of the world, especially those who have assigned themselves as moulders of our destinies, reaching out from their far ends of the world to distort and conjure.

As he addressed the world from Ghana, his words carried a powerful and resounding message: Africa has come of age. In a time when global narratives often cast doubt on the continent’s capacity for self-governance and progress, Tinubu’s remarks reaffirmed a new reality—one where African nations are increasingly taking control of their destinies.

Read Also: John Mahama calls Tinubu ‘President of Ghana’ during inauguration speech

The smooth transition of power in Ghana is a testament to the growing strength of democracy across the continent. This is not an isolated event but part of a broader story of African countries—Nigeria, Ghana, and others—demonstrating that they are capable of solving their domestic challenges without external intervention. Tinubu emphasized that Africa no longer needs to prove itself to a world that has long doubted its potential. Instead, the focus has shifted inward, where the only validation needed is from its own people.

The Nigerian leader’s speech underlined a significant point: Africa’s critics have failed to acknowledge the remarkable progress being made across the continent. For too long, global powers have sought to exploit divisions, perpetuating a narrative of instability and dependency. Tinubu’s message was clear—those days are over. The unity and resilience displayed by nations like Ghana serve as a beacon for the rest of Africa, showing that dialogue, collaboration, and mutual respect can overcome even the most entrenched challenges.

At the heart of Tinubu’s address was a rallying cry for African nations to reject external forces that aim to divide and exploit. His words echoed a deep understanding of the historical struggles that have shaped the continent, as well as a steadfast determination to protect the hard-won gains of African independence. The emphasis on unity, even in the face of disagreement, is a reminder that the true strength of Africa lies in its collective will.

This new chapter in Africa’s story is not without its difficulties, but as Tinubu highlighted, the continent has discovered the critical path to success. By prioritizing homegrown solutions and charting a course tailored to its unique needs, Africa is positioning itself as a global force to be reckoned with. The vision is not just economic growth, but a comprehensive transformation that uplifts every citizen, leaving behind the shadows of poverty and dependence.

Tinubu’s remarks also served as a tribute to the sacrifices of those who came before. The unity that many African nations now enjoy was hard-fought, with countless heroes dedicating their lives to the dream of a free, prosperous, and self-reliant continent. Today, that dream is becoming a reality, as nations like Ghana and Nigeria demonstrate that democracy and progress are not only possible, but thriving across Africa.

As the world watches, Africa stands tall, confident in its ability to navigate its challenges and forge its path. President Tinubu’s call for unity, resilience, and self-determination is not just a reflection of the present—it is a vision for the future, one where Africa takes its rightful place on the global stage. The message is clear: Africa is no longer waiting for approval or recognition. It is already rising, a shining star of democracy and hope.

“We celebrate African Democracy today as Ghana and her beloved people mark the transition from one democratic government to another. This moment does more than symbolise another milestone in the evolution of Ghanaian democratic society. It lays to bed the question of whether Ghana and Africa are capable of democratic and productive endeavours. Ghana has answered that question resoundingly.

“It is time that Africa’s critics stop forgetting the strides your nation, Nigeria and others have made by continuing to ask us to prove ourselves. We have nothing to prove to anyone except ourselves. We have found the critical path to our success. We shall lift our nations out of poverty and build a resilient economy at our own pace”, he told those who need to know this.

President Tinubu also cryptically alluded to a new trend that seems to be besetting the continent, especially as seen in a couple of West Africa states. The democratic experience in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger Republic recently got halted when military juntas seized power and went on to pull the countries out of the ECOWAS, which membership they have held for years. Attempts by the sub-regional body to get these military hotheads to reconsider and allow the people of their countries return to democratic rule have been met with stiff resistance.

From all indications and available feelers, the military juntas get their reason and encouragement from foreign interests, whose motive has been placed around mineral exploitation. Their strategy has been ‘divide and rule’, rather reminiscent of the colonialists of past centuries. On this development and to those orchestrating this situation, Tinubu still had a message:

“While others may seek to demean Africa and keep brother pitted against brother, that shining star reminds us of who we are. Better yet, it reminds us of who we can be. That star means that we shall always strive to work together. Even when we disagree, we shall dialogue and discuss until we reach an agreement. Never, never shall we harm others and never allow any outsider to hurt us or disrupt the unity for which so many of our heroes gave their sweat, blood, and very lives to achieve”, he said.

On Thursday, President Tinubu hosted the Chinese Foreign Affairs Minister, Wang Yi, at the State House in Abuja and did not fail to seize the occasion to made profitable demands from the Chinese government. Remember he has nurtured a kind of friendship with the Chinese, which led to the status of our relationship being upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership, now he demanded that the currency swap agreement be increased beyond the $2 billion agreed in the past, just as he called on China to increase the $50 billion pledged to Africa’s support as, in his words, “the infrastructural needs of Africa are greater than that”.

He also decorated his aide-de-camp, Nurudeen Alowonle Yusuf, with his new rank of Colonel, describing him as a “diligent and reliable officer”. Meanwhile, he had already tasked the military to go after the murderous terrorists who killed six of its men in Damboa, Borno State, just as he instructed that a probe carried out on the incident. These also happened on Thursday. However, on Friday, he was at the National Mosque, joining other Muslim faithful to observe the Juma’a service to mark this year’s Armed Forces Remembrance Day.

The week went the way it did; busy and strategically impactful, however, this new one promises to bring more, especially as he already left yesterday for another global economic event in Abu Dhabi. Let’s wait to see what he comes back with for all of us.

January 12, 2025
Edo councils and creative lawmaking

It is slanderous to credit Edo State local governments’ legislative arms as the originators of creative lawmaking that makes the law an ass. Other states and even the federal government had achieved that distinction years ago. In recent weeks, however, Edo LGs have managed to give some oomph to disingenuous political engineering. Barely three days after the House of Assembly, on December 17 and by an undisputed majority, suspended for two months the state’s 18 local government chairmen for insubordination and refusal to be accountable, the victims got an Edo High Court injunction on December 20 against both the governor, Monday Okpebholo, and the legislature to desist from tampering with the running of the councils and removing any chairman. Nonsense, said the legislative councils of the LGs weeks later, there are many ways to skin a cat; and they promptly began impeaching the chairmen, one after the other, parallel to the court injunction.

Alarmed that the Edo State government appeared disinclined to obeying the court injunction, the chairmen coalesced their efforts and approached the Federal High Court in Abuja for relief from what they were certain was a budding All Progressives Congress (APC) tyranny. All the 18 chairmen, including Tom Obaseki, brother of the former governor, Godwin Obaseki, were elected in September 2023 on the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) platform in a bitterly disputed election. Few states have so far been able to conduct free and fair local government elections. Despite being armed with Edo High Court and Federal High Court Abuja orders, the LG chairmen have still been unable to fend off the assault by the state’s legislature. Do they have an answer to the legislative councils’ actions? It is unlikely.

The buffeted chairmen, some of whom have out of desperation defected to the APC, may appear to have the 1999 Constitution (Section 20) on their side, especially in line with the opinion of the Federal Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi, on the matter, but it is unclear whether they have the Edo State Local Government Law of 2000 on their side, Section 20(1)(b) of which was deployed by the former governor in similar circumstances to upend the LGs. Mr Fagbemi insists no governor has the power to remove council chairmen or dissolve the councils entirely. But the House of Assembly and the governor insist by virtue of Sections 4 and 7 of the same constitution that the chairmen were not removed but suspended in line with the House of Assembly oversight functions on the LGs. Until the courts decide how far anyone can go in dealing with the LGs, a process that promises to be long and arduous, the legislative councils will continue to spring their ingenuity on everyone.

Read Also: Police arrest 38-year-old man for spreading fake news in Edo

Beyond who is right or wrong, including whether any state can actually conduct a free and fair election at the LG level, it is clear that the problem of the councils is much more fundamental than it is generally viewed. Last year’s Supreme Court judgement granting the councils financial – not administrative – autonomy may have rubbed the governors the wrong way, with many of them fearing that the federal government was deliberately and mischievously setting the cat among the pigeons, but everything points to the fact that Nigeria’s dysfunctional constitution and political structure may in fact be responsible for the abnormality. In the First Republic, the federating regions ran far better organised and elected local government administrations. That fairly workable and acceptable structure was dismantled by military intrusions into politics and governance. Since then, no formula has seemed to work at the local government level, with more patches creating worse tear.

The problem is not Mr Okpebholo or even Mr Obaseki foisting 18 PDP LG chairmen on the state, or the alleged financial malfeasance of the chairmen, or the sometimes mysterious and facile decisions of the state courts, or the complicating judgement of the Supreme Court. The problem is the 1999 Constitution. It was unable to make up its mind how to seamlessly integrate the councils into the tiers of government, or defend them when the governors inevitably savage them. As the federation is currently structured, and the councils maladroitly integrated into the governance of states, it is unlikely that the anomalies perpetrated in the states against the councils will abate. Already, some states have found a way round the Supreme Court judgement on LG financial autonomy, and have conducted appallingly incompetent and self-serving LG polls to produce council puppets. They will do worse in the months and years ahead. The governors, it is obvious, have no patience with cohabiting with obstreperous or independently minded council chairmen. They can tolerate defiant councilors, but they will brook no opposition from any ambitious or ‘confident’ chairman.

President Bola Tinubu tried to pacify the governors when they visited him at home in last December, insisting that the administration was more interested in impactful governance at the grassroots level than instigating LGs against them. They heard him, and nodded in apparent agreement. But it was clear that they remained unconvinced. They will return to their states and turn on the screw a notch tighter, leaving the federal government and the Supreme Court wondering what next to do to salvage the castrated LGs. The federal government, through its anti-graft agencies, has threatened to prosecute LG chairmen who cannot account for their spending, and will probably go on to make scapegoats of a few dissembling council bosses. The effort may, however, be unsustainable, legally and constitutionally. Instead, let the Tinubu administration take another look at the structure of the federation, the so-called restructuring plan, and determine just how far they can ginger what is today a clearly anachronistic political system into morphing its way into the future.

January 12, 2025
Waiting for disruptive Trump

In a little over a week, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States of America, four years after serving as the 45th. He was disruptive in his first term, and bombastic, unpredictable, propagandising, and even apocalyptic in his threats. He will probably be more on his second term, if age has not slowed his body and superficial intellect down. In his first term, he talked down on the Western alliance, Nato, insulted China which he took a personal dislike to, and lauded aristocrats and autocrats, no matter how odious. Even before he is sworn in, he has talked up a storm over annexing Canada as the 51st US state, and taking over Greenland in order to guarantee their protection against unforeseen threats, presumably from Russia. Moreover, he does not seem to think much of the special relationship between the US and Britain.

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The world remembers the special relationship between the US and UK, particularly as nurtured by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. It is impossible to see any glimmer of that relationship between British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Mr Trump. Both men contrast in style, elocution, politics and worldview. Mr Starmer is predictable almost to the point of dullness, and Mr Trump is precarious, uproarious, insensitive and grandiose. But it is not only Europe that is apprehensive, indeed, the rest of the world is on a knife-edge, as Iran, Gaza, Syria, Ukraine and Mexico, among others, can testify. How to manage Mr Trump’s brittle ego for the next four years will be both their preoccupation and nightmare. Hopefully they will survive him. In fact, if the US president discovers that four years of his disruptive and explosive politics cannot change the world in fundamental ways, it may dissuade him from overreaching himself.

January 12, 2025
James Earl Carter, an appreciation

There is absolutely no contradiction in being a very good person and a great politician at the same time. James Earl Carter, the 39th president of America and son of a peanut farmer from rural Georgia, was such a person. He was a decent and humane fellow: caring and compassionate, but firm and principled where and when it mattered. There was a touch of nobility of spirit about him. The outpouring of global grief and appreciation which occasioned his death in late December and burial this past week attest to the fact that the world has lost one of its authentic political icons and moral lodestars. It has been quite a while that virtually the entire world has been united with America in grief and appreciation of a global statesman.

Let it be noted that the toxic debasement of politics in our contemporary world has turned politics into a most endangered profession and politicians an object of much hate and revilement. But it has not always been like this. In its rudimentary origins, politics was regarded as the highest and most selfless service one can render to the society and to humanity at large. Many philosophers of yore conceived of politics as the principal avenue for humanizing and refining humanity, and for bringing out the most noble and endearing traits about the human species. It may be the case that as the reality of human deviousness and greed kicked in, and as fierce competition for increasingly scarce resources became the order of the day with stronger and more powerful nations and people preying on weaker nations and people, many concluded that the old vision of politics and society is idyllic and completely out of touch with evolving realities. The brutal urgency of accumulation and need to protect what is accumulated often bring out the worst in everybody inducing a more elevated state of nature requiring harsh regulations and restrictions depending on the stage and state each society has reached. It has been noted that if human-beings were angels, there would have been no need for government.

As we can see from the above, the pollution of politics and the estrangement of the practitioners of statecraft from the very society they are supposed to develop and uplift through the cult of stirring heroism has been long in coming. It did not begin yesterday. It is perhaps the greatest paradox of human civilization. In Things Fall Apart, the classic of pre-colonial communal living in a supposedly idyllic African society, Chinua Achebe paints a graphic picture of how much of what was gentle and amiable about Okonkwo, the hero, had been pressed out by the dictates of a harshly competitive society which brooked no failure and where the worship of power, wealth, prestige and fame was all that mattered.

The reader is shown flashes of Okonkwo’s old generous and adorable side in his tender and affectionate relationship with his daughter before he was transformed into a monster by his society. It was a pact with the devil. The celebrated wrestler had already witnessed Nnoka, his lay-about rebel father, dumped unceremoniously in the evil forest reserved for failures and social misfits. He did not wish to make a return trip even though Nwoye, his own son, was already showing encouraging signs of ending up a failure like his grandfather. Here, nature and unpredictable genetic configurations steal a cunning match on humanity. No person has as yet been born that can confer subsequent success and sterling achievement on their family.

Jimmy Carter was one of those few people, moral avatars of the age, who saw the need to leave their society and the world at large in a better state than they had met it. Such rare breeds strive to bring out the best in their contemporaries and the finest sense of responsibility from other nations. He was a visionary of the immense possibilities of humanity despite crippling challenges. Despite the debilitations, the devastations of war and the possibility of atomic self-annihilation, Jimmy Carter was a man of muscular faith, a stout and unwavering believer in human capacity for redemption and the ceaseless self-inventions typical of his own nation, despite its political failings and ethical failures. A man of profound intellectual capabilities, the late American president was no naïve dreamer or idealistic crackpot. He knew what he was doing, where he thought humankind should be and the challenges. The sunny smiles etched against the background of a gloomy aloof visage sums it all up like Antonio Gramsci before him: Optimism of the will and pessimism of the intellect.

By the time he passed at the ripe old age of a hundred last December, he had already achieved several firsts and distinctions, most of them after he left office and politically posthumous, in a manner of speaking. He had become the longest living American president and by far the most successful out of office. His global efforts as a stellar statesman fighting for the advancement of democracy and good governance, his efforts at eradicating global disease, his quiet demeanour with its understated steeliness, his innate good breeding which made him to refrain from rowdy interventions and unwarranted public censoring of his successors and above all his humanity which knew no colour, creed or caste not to mention his matchless probity and immaculate integrity, have all combined to put him in a class of his own.

Here departs an authentic leader of the global conurbation; an American president for all humanity and not for his deeply traumatized sectarian enclave alone. Whence cometh another? A visionary sometimes lives to reap the fruits of his costly labour. The greatest lesson that Jimmy Carter has taught the world is that there is life after partisan politics. Put in another way, there is life after political office and office after political life. It is just as well that Jimmy Carter, somewhere down the line, renounced and foreswore interest in material accumulation. He had famously declared that he was not interested in riches and wealth which could have sullied his vision of human society and compromised his integrity. More often than not, you cannot serve God and mammon at the same time. After his presidency, the frugal and abstemious Carter returned to the same modest house he had lived with his wife who predeceased him in a marriage that had lasted a whopping seventy seven years. It was the longest presidential romance in American history.

Read Also: Jimmy Carter: 27 things to know about late former US president

In all likelihood, Jimmy Carter never really forgave Nigeria for not measuring up to expectations and living up to its continental and global responsibilities. He might have thought that given its humongous natural resources and prodigious human endowments, Nigeria is the natural leader of the Black race with the capacity to serve as a transforming hub for the black race and a Mecca of Neo-Enlightenment. For a moment, there were some propitious stirrings, particularly during the mid-seventies and then a descent into the hell of military despotism with the flickering light of civilian governance brutally snuffed out. But after widespread irregularities and massive electoral fraud benchmarked what was supposed to be a post-military restoration in Nigeria in 1999, Carter, who had personally monitored the election, could not hide his displeasure and left the country sad and dejected.

In retrospect, perhaps the revered American statesman was being a tad idealistic and politically naïve. Untrammelled despotism, and one marked by widespread murder and savage repression, takes it time to work through a system, particularly one marked by multi-ethnic, multi-religious polarities and countervailing modes of economic production. Despite its economic, political and racial cleavages, America is a far more open and liberalized society than most African postcolonial societies. It was this possibility of impossibility that had taken Jimmy Carter, a virtually unknown peanut farmer with no sterling name recognition and one term governor of Georgia from the rural and rustic precincts of Georgia, to the gate of the White House after the 1976 presidential election when he defeated the incumbent, President Gerald Ford.

But being an unknown quantity, with its magic of unpredictability and capacity for strategic surprises, also has its drawbacks. The Washington Lobby, notorious for wheeling and dealing and for crony card-shuffling, gave Jimmy Carter a taste of hell. He was very much an outsider in uncharted territory and with his known aversion for anything that reeks of the unscrupulous and shy distaste for deal-making, the former naval officer came a sad cropper. As the economy stalled and became unresponsive to Carter’s kind and compassionate brand of capitalism, murmurs of disapproval and disapprobation came to be heard around Washington and the rest of the country.

After the Iranian Embassy hostage fiasco, the floodgate of condemnation opened and it was clear that the owners of America wanted their country back, and wanted it to revert to the default setting of messianic destiny and American Exceptionalism. Having been resoundingly beaten at the polls by Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter returned to his Georgian rustic redoubt. It was this dismal denouement that led detractors dismissing him as being more of a successful ex-president than a president. But the truth is more complex and nuanced. Carter might have pushed through more consequential and reform-minded bills than most American presidents in living memory.

For its aficionados, the sheer beauty of history is the way it unfolds in a strange and totally unpredictable manner giving way even after wars and chaos to only minute incremental changes within the dynamics of its own unpredictable momentum. The dramatic resurgence of radically conservative social forces which led to the ousting of Jimmy Carter in America also produced around the same time the ascendancy of Margaret Thatcher in Britain. The shrill no-nonsense daughter of a Methodist alderman put the fumbling and blundering Labour Party led by Jim Callaghan out of its misery. The two ideological soul mates unleashed a brutal programme of Neocon social engineering on their respective societies which brooked no compassion for the weak and poor. Thatcher’s war-cry was that there is no such thing as society. But after twelve tumultuous years in power, the British public sent unmistakable signals of being tired of her divisive and polarizing antics.

Four and a half decades later the poker game continues as the world arrives at another interesting conjuncture. In Britain, they have just brought back Labour to power after a series of disastrous Conservative governments marked by corruption, public deception and the most unedifying patent of medieval cronyism. And America has just recalled the impossible Donald Trump. In a swift disavowal of virtually everything Jimmy Carter stood for and worked for, Trump has vowed to repossess Panama Canal and to forcibly annex Greenland. If this is a sneak preview, weaker nations and people must brace up. Jimmy Carter was yet to be lowered into his final resting place at that point. After almost six hundred years of unrivalled hegemony, the nation-state paradigm may be coming full circle. We have already seen a preview in Israel’s pulverizing dissolution of the Middle East as we know it. Before things simmer down, there is going to be a hell of caterwauling out there with the possibility of the odd nuclear browbeating. But everything that has a beginning must have an end. May the good lord continue to shower his blessings on this great friend of Africa and the Black race.

January 12, 2025
BOLA IGE

December 21, 2001

History Never Forgets

And enter the gunmen

one sad and ominous night

murder’s mandate in every bullet

Paymasters waiting in the crook

of night’s arms, eager

for a convoy of corpses

And a rude shot put out the star

in our Christmas sky

and the shepherds lost their way

To the Bethlehem of our re-birth

carols blackened into dirges

seething every line with the anguish of our rage

A pall fell on the yuletide feast

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streets emptied into horrified silence

markets wore their stalls like absent belts. . . .

Still we ask: Where are the fingers that pulled the trigger that night

Where, their paymasters in powerful places?

Waiting, still waiting

The hunchback nation

Cannot hide its burden

January 12, 2025
2025 as defining year

Pundits have relied on political antecedents to project 2025 as a defining year for Nigeria. The next elections will take place in 2027, and the primaries in 2026. To stand any chance of influencing the direction of the elections, opposition politicians as well as the present federal administration will need to proactively shuffle the political and economic cards this year. To win the March 2015 presidential and legislative elections, the All Progressives Congress had to be formed about two years before in February 2013, exactly two years and one month. To stand any chance of dislodging Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the then frontrunner in the 2023 presidential election, his opponents in the APC in fact started their manoeuvres about three years earlier when they unhorsed his man, party chairman Adams Oshiomhole, in June 2020. And to win the 2023 presidential poll, President Tinubu in turn began shuffling the cards as early as 2013 when the party was formed, and in particular from December 2014 when he engineered the presidential primary victory of former military head of state, Muhammadu Buhari, in Lagos.

This year will undoubtedly be very eventful. Everyone had better brace for high-wire politics. There will be rumblings in the ruling party itself, but the pushing and shoving in the opposition, and in probably a Third Force, should it emerge, will be imponderable. The opposition’s strength is at the moment diffused, but there is nothing to suggest they can’t get their act together sometime this year in order not to perish separately. It will take some doing, though, given the contrasting approach to politics by the two main opposition parties, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP), and their amorphous leaders, ex-vice president Atiku Abubakar and ex-Anambra governor Peter Obi. Indeed, the opposition has belled the cat of the next polls, with whispers as early as sometime last year, and with dissonant bellow since the beginning of 2025. Their zeal for 2027 permutations will not flag. They will be as exuberant as they are vitriolic.

Meanwhile, Nigerians have a hazy picture of the emergence sometime this year of a Third Force inspired by Nasir el-Rufai, Kayode Fayemi, Rotimi Amaechi, Rauf Aregbesola, and a host of other disgruntled and alienated political leaders. Their success in engendering a formidable Third Force will depend on how fissiparous the PDP and APC become. LP is so gaseous and unstable that few people think it really resembles a political party, and there is nothing ideological or even substantial about the party for anyone to quarrel over. Mr Obi himself maintains a tenuous and dismal hold on the party, and has, aside from his opportunistic and exploitative use of its organs, been a very chary investor in its future. On the other hand, the PDP had been engaged in prolonged bickering before the 2023 presidential election and, more viciously, after their defeat in that fateful poll. They can’t transcend their party leadership squabbles, whether at the chairmanship or national secretary level, and they are unwilling to subordinate their private interests to the party’s future and ambition. And they have so distorted the shape and philosophy of their party that neither they nor anyone else recognises what the party stands for.

Given his rhetoric so far, and having a keener sense of what 2025 should hold than anyone else, Mr Obi appears desperate to become the leading opposition figure, especially with a vacillating Alhaji Atiku unsure just how much of his resources to commit to a party wary of his leadership. In his controversial and sanctimonious New Year statement, Mr Obi assailed the ruling party, denounced its leadership, accused it of attempting to foster dictatorship, and concluded that the APC was incompetent in managing the country’s crises, particularly the economy. But in the eyes of APC spokesmen, the LP leader obviously ignored the reality of the progress made by the ruling party in restoring the economy to an even keel as well as the freedoms Nigerians enjoy and have clearly taken for granted. Soon, the exchange became bitter and threatening, with Mr Obi alleging threats to his life and his family, and the APC spokesmen also accusing the former governor of slander and incitement. The sum of all this is that in the past few weeks, and believing that the 2027 race is a sprint, Mr Obi has managed to keep posturing as the main opposition leader. But it won’t be for long.

The doughty Alhaji Atiku never surrenders until it is impossible to go on. He may not reach that threshold of needing to surrender this year, least of all to the flaky and sermonising Mr Obi, but he will keep his eyes trained on both the APC and the main prize, while he sees the noise of the LP leader as a tangential and necessary distraction to flummox their common enemy. For much of this year, the former vice president will amuse himself with the stifling anachronisms of his main contender for the opposition crown, and rest assured that Mr Obi will burn out in his exploitation of religious and ethnic divisions, not to talk of the sinister manner he has indirectly nurtured the Obidient mobocrats in the service of base interests. What is more, he will continue to manipulate the emotions of the people and prey on their fears. Alhaji Atiku may in a limited way possess the stamina to take the long-term perspective in politics, and hopes to flourish this year when it is needed, he will, however, have to contend with his abysmal lack of capacity to run a political party and his reluctance to get his hands dirty in resolving fratricidal differences. In politics, he prefers the clean and jerk, as he demonstrated in the Action Congress (AC) in 2007, and in his first and second attempts at the presidency on the PDP platform in 2019 and 2023. But fortunately for him, Mr Obi is cut from the same cloth in the LP whose dying embers are visible from 10 kilometres away.

Farsighted politicians, including former governors like Jigawa’s Sule Lamido, are apprehensive of the APC’s staying power and capacity to plot mischief. They fear that in the build-up to the next elections, starting from this year, there will be more defections to the ruling party, and even opposition lawmakers and governors will be more amenable to the wishes of President Tinubu. They suggest that only a coalition of opposition parties stands the chance of defeating the APC in 2027. How to form that coalition and find an altruistic leader to sacrifice self interest for public and party interest will, however, prove exceedingly difficult. Ambitious politicians who take a short-term perspective of politics hardly prove capable of sacrificing anything, let alone the presidency which all of them desperately covet. Opposition leaders have luxuriated in the exciting idea of a mega coalition, as if the very nature of the term is powerful and sufficient enough to gift them the highest office. But the three main opposition leaders, to wit, Alhaji Atiku, Mr Obi, and New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) leader Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, have time and time again displayed egotism of the highest order. None of them possesses the needed altruism to bury personal ambition in order to advance a common and nobler cause.

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If the main opposition parties and leaders are unable to form a coalition, might the putative leaders of the Third Force be up to the task? In theory, they are capable. All of them are, however, aware of their limitations; and having been out of office for some years and are now presumably rid of the egotism that afflicts office holders in these parts, they may be prepared to eat humble pie. They will sacrifice anything and do everything, they say, to erase the president’s self-satisfied smirk. But they lack the resources and mischief which the PDP is capable of summoning for a common cause, and the ready army of charlatans and cannon fodder which the LP can muster at the bat of an eyelid. If they repose hope in some secret financiers angry enough to want to invest in their gambit, they may have to wait for much longer than they think. Today, given the sophistication in tracking movement of funds, as the last election proved to the chagrin of some business moguls, no tycoon worth his name will take such foolish risks of funding the opposition, not to talk of an obsolescent opposition. The Third Force will remain an entertaining option in Nigerian politics, but in 2025 they will be hobbled by a lack of resources and will thus be unable to bite as much as they bark. After all, their feeble alliance is backed not by any coherent ideology but by their common lack of loyalty to a mentor, and by their callous betrayals, ruthlessness and iconoclasm.

But the ultimate game changer in 2025 will be the economy. If it is revived on time and on a sufficient scale that significantly betters the lives of Nigerians before the end of the year, the opposition will be disarmed, and even soothsayers who have in recent years become less coherent in their predictions for the year and the future will also begin to hem and haw. Like any epidemic that runs its course, Nigeria’s ravaged economy may have inflicted its worst on the people and has in fact begun to mend. Contrary to Mr Obi’s New Year statement, the Tinubu administration has actually stabilised the economy which neared a free fall in 2023. Nearly all sectors are responding to treatment, perhaps not as fast as the people hope, nor as deep as may be needed for a major and consequential impact, but in 2025, the economy is unlikely to relapse into torpor again, since the administration had wisely spent its first two years in office executing nerve-racking and backbreaking reforms. Indeed, nearly all economic indicators are looking up, whether in growth figure or in forex stability, or in foreign direct investment. If the economy keeps looking up in the year, the hands of the opposition will be conversely weakened. And if the global economy does not prove adverse to Nigeria’s economic recovery, the opposition will be hard put to diminish the ruling party’s 2027 chances.

This year will also witness the ups and downs and the push and pull of insecurity. If the security agencies think a little outside the box, clean up their act, and add more zeal and imagination to their counterinsurgency efforts, Nigerians may actually be witnessing the dying embers of violent extremist groups. Security agencies have admitted that kinetic measures are insufficient to get the better of insecurity, but they and the federal and state governments have not shown enough appreciation of why these groups were birthed and why they have so far largely resisted most countermeasures. Some analysts emphasise the role played by economic factors, chiefly poverty; but other commentators point at the manipulation of religion. Elite irresponsibility in many parts of Nigeria has encouraged all sorts of successful challenges to the state; yet political and community leaders have refused to accept responsibility for being accessories to the breakdown of law and order. Whether in the Northeast, Northwest or Southeast, political and community leaders have been complicit in promoting insecurity and other diverse challenges to the system. Despite the occasional eruptions and last gasps, however, insecurity may finally begin to relent.

In 2025, the Southwest appears alarmingly poised to be infected by the same malaise that predisposed other regions to various insurgencies. The remarkable secularism of the Southwest is being eroded inch by inch, and mile by mile, starting with seemingly innocuous religious observances and cultures, at a time when many previously theocratic states in the world have begun to recognise the drawbacks of obliterating the divide between state and religion. If they do not take conscious steps to free themselves from the claws of sectarianism, they will inherit the doom other regions are extricating themselves from. Days ago, both the Department of State Service (DSS) and Governor Seyi Makinde raised the alarm about creeping terrorism in the region, with international terrorist organisations allegedly finding a toehold in Osun and Oyo States. The DSS has announced the arrest of a terrorist cell in Osun, and the Oyo governor has also alleged that bandits and Boko Haram militants flushed out from the North are finding refuge in Oyo forests. Domestic terrorists will always find refuge and accommodation in communities that flirt with sectarianism and denude their secularist heritage. The hitherto peaceful Southwest is openly flirting with non-secularists and terrorists, years after herdsmen pillaged their region. Are they gluttons for punishment? They will suffer destabilisation and retrogression if they do not begin to walk back the folly of romancing the politics and religion of exclusion.

The far North has been reluctant to accept responsibility for birthing Boko Haram and banditry and the poverty the menaces have accentuated, despite the punishing genocide the crises have caused. Soon after the restoration of civil rule in 1999, they scorned the constitution and jumped into bed with sectarianism bordering on theocracy, notwithstanding the advance warnings Maitatsine religious revolts of the 1980s gave them about the dangers of such flirtations. In fact, instead of firmly dealing with religious extremism over the decades, they cuddled it, refused to prosecute those who engaged in mass murder in the name of religion, and pretended as if there would be no consequences. But the consequences came inescapably, and instead of putting out the fire, they at first handled Boko Haram with kid gloves, and then sponsored it until it grew into a Frankenstein monster. They then excused banditry in the name of reclaiming past grazing practices, but had no idea how to deal with what they finally acknowledged was a civil war between the Hausa and Fulani. It is expected in 2025 that the establishment of a placating Livestock ministry would mitigate the violent clashes between farmers and herders. It is not certain why the government hopes that the ministry is enough placation when the North’s complicit leaders have learnt no lessons from their errant ways.

Overall, optimism will likely remain high this year, as signposted by the oil sector recovery, while insecurity may reduce significantly, the economy maintain its steady positive trajectory on all indicators, including on unemployment and inflation, and hardship ameliorated. The administration will, however, need to sustain these gains by undergirding them with some social engineering measures to reorient Nigerians away from decades of entitlement and undue reliance on the state’s feeding bottles. In the end, each person owes himself a living. Despite the alarms Alhaji Atiku and Mr Obi have repeatedly raised about the hypothetical erosion of civil rights, it is unclear whether they can substantiate their allegations or find enough corroborations to justify their hysteria. As a measure of the political stability so far engendered by the Bola Tinubu administration, Nigerians at home and abroad have become fairly upbeat about their country, and they will be even more optimistic this year if nothing earthshaking undermines that hope. On its own, having survived nearly two years of bitter recriminations by the opposition, coup instigators, and rash of protests, the administration may have begun to understand that no positive achievement will be enough to dissuade opposition parties and a section of Nigeria’s regional elites from plotting its defeat in the next elections. But before 2025 is over, many pundits who have for months been unable to see the wood for the trees, partly because they have also become partisan, should more competently be able to determine how this year would impact the events of 2026 and particularly 2027.

January 12, 2025
The rise, rise and rise of capitalism (II)

When Adam delved and Eve spun Who then was the gentleman

The very long drawn out agricultural revolution which dovetailed into the Industrial revolution four hundred years later began in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic which has come to be known to history as the Black Death. Beginning in 1346 until 1354 the plague raged all over Europe, reducing the population of the continent by as much as 50%. The number of workers was also reduced by a similar figure leading to a marked shortage of labour, both skilled and unskilled. The consensus of opinion at the time among the workers of England was that their labour should attract higher reward. But their overlords did not agree with their workers in this regard. To make matters worse, one of the interminable wars with France was raging and the king and his counsellors decided that they had to impose additional taxes with which to pay for the war.

By 1371, the workers had decided that the situation had become intolerable and revolt was in the air; led by an activist preacher, John Ball, who went around England rousing the peasants to revolt against the Lords of the land. His ringing rallying cry was in the form of a question which went back to the beginning of Christian time.

When Adam gentleman delved and Eve spun

Who then was the gentleman

In other words, there were no Lords or Peasants at the beginning of time so how come there was then a group of people lording it over others? The situation was as intolerable as it was unnatural and had to be changed and they were determined to change it. This is what led to the Peasants Revolt during which Wat Tyler, acting on behalf of the peasants, presented all sorts of demands to the king who gave in to the demands of the peasants. However, the nobles prevailed upon the king to repudiate this agreement, a situation which caused Tyler’s death and the continued oppression of the peasants and further concentration of wealth in the hands of the ruling class. If anything, the following couple of centuries led to more trouble for the peasants. Over the years, the Lords succeeded in alienating the poor from land which was hitherto accessible to everyone. This situation forced an increasing percentage of the peasants to abandon the rural areas and congregate in urban centres which grew quite quickly as a result. These former peasants on becoming increasingly pauperised formed the recruiting group for an emerging group of persons who had no attachment to the land and could therefore be recruited into an emerging group of workers who could be herded into the factory work force which was to create wealth for the emerging capitalists of the eighteenth century and beyond.

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The immediate consequence of the exploitation of the New World by the Spanish Conquistadors was the enrichment of the Spanish crown. The indigenous peoples of those lands in the western hemisphere were immediately enslaved and made to work extracting gold and silver from what was once their land. The toll on those people was horrendous and their population collapsed spectacularly. Hunger, overwork and imported diseases made frightful inroads into the indigenous population of the New World to the extent that within thirty years of Spanish colonisation and exploitation, genuine fears were expressed that the indigenous people were on the verge of extinction. Rather than damping down on the rate of exploitation, it was suggested by a monk that Africans be imported all the way from Africa to take up the slack created by the population collapse of the indigenous peoples. This suggestion paved the way for the most dastardly crime against humanity in the two hundred thousand years history of the existence of our species on the surface of the earth.

As early as 1493, only a few months after Columbus arrived in the New World, a series of bulls emanating from the Vatican had effectively divided the world as it was known at the time into two spheres of influence. The western portion was given over to Spain and the eastern portion ceded to Portugal. The two Christian (Roman Catholic) countries were charged with bringing all the people in their respective spheres to the knowledge of the redeeming power of Jesus Christ. In other words, they had complete power over the millions of people residing in their respective domains. At that time, the Pope was master of the kingdom of Christ on earth until the Reformation reared its ugly head and started to make a mockery of the authority of the Pope. That story is worthy of further interrogation.

All Spanish colonies were in the New World but the hapless souls who were to spend their lifetime slaving in those colonies lived in Africa under Portuguese authority. To solve this problem, the Spanish drew up a contract for the supply of slaves from Africa. This contract called the Asiento was issued annually to slave traders mainly from England, Denmark, Holland and of course Portugal. The nationals of these countries built forts along to the so called Slave coast and over the next three hundred and more years extracted and conveyed to the Americas, more than twelve million Africans. An unknown number of Africans also perished in the process of being captured, marched to the coast and shipped in the most atrocious conditions imaginable. What we have not yet factored into this infernal equation is the dislocation which accompanied the activities of slave catchers all over the continent of Africa. If the truth be told, Africa has not yet recovered from the depredation inflicted on her over this dark period. For all that time, slaves toiled under wicked conditions to provide unpaid labour which created wealth and the capital on which the Industrial Revolution was launched.

The Spanish colonies in North, Central and South America were outright slave colonies which existed to produce precious natural resources which were taken to Europe for consumption. In the wake of the Reformation in Europe when the power of the Roman Catholic Church was effectively challenged a new kind of colonists fetched up on the eastern seaboard of the Atlantic in North America. What they were looking for was the freedom to practise whatever form of religion that took their fancy. The first of these groups arrived in America in 1607 in what is now Massachusetts. As expected, life in those early English colonies was precarious to say the least. Without help from the indigenous people the colonists would not have survived for more than a few months. This is the origin of the tradition of Thanksgiving which as with all things American has been commercialized out of all meaning and precious tradition. Its true meaning has collapsed under the weight of dollars thrown at it.

It is fashionable these days to think that all that Africans have contributed to the USA is two hundred years of unpaid labour during slavery but in reality, without African input, the USA would not have developed beyond subsistence level. The journey from Africa was unquestionably traumatic but the Africans came over with a plethora of skills, farming techniques, foods, social skills in terms of music, dance and other civilising influences which enriched America in a way which no other group of immigrants has been able to do.

The first group of Africans to be landed in America consisted of twenty odd Angolan captives who landed in Virginia in 1619. Their arrival marked a change of fortune for the colonists as their various skills especially their understanding of agriculture not only guaranteed their freedom from hunger but it was possible for them to produce commercial crops through which fortunes were built. Using slave labour, they produced tobacco, rice and finally cotton on which the economy of the Southern states were built. So much so that they were willing to go to war to preserve their way of life. The slave owners may have surrendered to superior forces in 1865 but they are still fighting a bitter rear-guard action in protection of their criminal privileges. The level of institutional racism remains so high that it is still a distinct disadvantage to be born black in the USA.

Today, there is a North-South divide in the USA and more than anything else, it is a geographical divide. The economy of the North is distinctly industrial whereas it tends to be agricultural in the south. Whilst cotton was king in the South, finance and industry ruled the North and this being the case the industrialists must rule. The surplus necessary for industry to thrive existed in the North and naturally, capitalism took root in the North. Long before the slaves were emancipated in the USA, successive waves of immigrants were mercilessly exploited in the USA. For example, the railway which opened up the country from east to west was built by imported near slave labour from China in the east to Irish gangs in the west with blacks squeezed out of the picture. Be that as it may, one group or the other was being screwed by the capitalist machinery that was being installed by the so called robber barons who were squeezing every ounce of goodness out of the economy which they were setting up. More than anything else, what this means was that there was no free lunch or offer for any group of people other than the capitalists.

To be continued.

When in February 2023, Jimmy Carter elected to enter home hospice care, I wrote an appreciation of a very useful life. He was not expected to live long after that but with a burst of indomitable life wish, he lived for another twenty-two months. A man of towering intellectual and moral stature, it says a great deal about him that he accomplished more out of office than when he was the President of the USA. He has now died as the longest lived POTUS at the round old age of one hundred years old. Under the present edgy circumstances, he will be much sadly missed.

January 5, 2025
Obasanjo’s faux pas

Armed with a Yoruba proverb that all but implied that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd (NNPCL) told lies to the public about the scale of its refineries restoration, former president Olusegun Obasanjo scorned the efforts of the Bola Tinubu administration in the downstream sector. Two of the refineries, Old Port Harcourt and Warri, have been restored and are operating at about two-thirds capacity. The former president was careful enough to stop short of doubting the restoration of the refineries in their entirety, but he insinuated that the scale was far less than the company announced. He did not avail the public the details of the information he had about the scale of production he offhandedly questioned. He would not be trapped.

In an interview he gave Channels Television, he spoke about his doubts that Nigerian refineries could ever be restored, especially following the submissions by Shell Nigeria that the plants were too complicated, obsolete and potentially susceptible to corruption to become a profitable line of business for a company that finds the downstream sector of the oil business more profitable. But in the same breath, he tried to justify offloading the refineries at $750m to the consortium put together by business magnate Aliko Dangote. Chief Obasanjo reposed trust in Shell Nigeria’s summation, but nevertheless approved the Dangote/Femi Otedola/Transcorp deal, a deal he lamented his successor, the late Umaru Yar’Adua, ‘unwisely’ revoked. The former president then concluded that the about two billion dollars spent on revitalising the refineries do not justify the scale of the ongoing restoration. But, from all indications, he would have, through his equity in Transcorp, benefited from the Dangote consortium deal, a deal he hammered out in the closing weeks of his presidency without any shred of transparency. Surely, there is a limit to bellyaching. NNPCL has asked him, of course with a hint of sarcasm, to visit the restored refineries. He won’t. He will have a fit if he visits and sees the plants buzzing.

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Chief Obasanjo’s position on the refineries has of course been dismissed by many critics who accuse him of being a wet blanket and an envious politician stunned by the current administration’s successful restoration of the facilities. He is now faced with the ordeal of witnessing the refineries restored to near capacity, and the commissioning of private refineries projected both to curb the importation of refined petroleum products and make Nigeria a net exporter of fuel, as indeed the Dangote refinery is already doing. The former president may be loth to admit his fallibility, but the fact is that he is as vulnerable as he is fallible, and his political and business judgements, which he believes to be sacrosanct, are questionable.

In his eight years as president, while he achieved some remarkable feats, he also made appalling decisions about his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), about governors whom he disliked and got impeached, about respect for democratic principles, and after many rigmaroles and riding roughshod over the electoral system, ended up saddling the country with political liabilities and ill-fated succession. But despite these failings, and despite seeming to defy gravity after many years out of office, he has maintained some relevance in national affairs, with politicians organising pilgrimages to his residence to seek support for their ambitions or at least mute his waspish tongue.

In a little over two years, Chief Obasanjo will be 90 years old. Already, he belongs to the exclusive class of former Nigerian leaders who have lived very long and satisfactorily, and the small percentage of Nigerians (0.35%) who live above 80. Nature and divinity have been very kind to him, gifting him leadership of Nigeria as a military leader and as twice elected president, not to talk of international recognition that makes him an exceptional Nigerian. He has of course not requited nature for those gifts, nor performed with distinction the assignments he messianically claimed heaven had devolved to him. But not being one to be incommoded by protestations from any quarters, he has pranced all over the country and the world, posing as God’s most accomplished gift to his country and perhaps to the black man.

Yet his age and experience should instruct him otherwise. He is becoming infirm despite his best efforts, is stooping slightly when he had been ramrod all his life, and regardless of his avowal to stay on this side of heaven on and on and on, perhaps mummifying in the process, he has fewer years ahead of him than behind him, much fewer. A smart and sensitive and visionary leader should seize the time left to bind up wounds, heal divides, make peace with avowed enemies, and create an environment around his image that would make Nigerians genuinely grieve his departure. Instead, he is making more enemies, casting aspersion on everyone diametrically opposed to his rather rudimentary views and philosophy of life, and egregiously fouling the national well of trust by still seeking to impose leaders on the nation despite his infamous incompetence in judging people’s and leaders’ character. No one in Nigeria has been so gifted with the chance to forge a golden image for himself, and no one has been so extraordinarily adept at frittering away the chance.

The NNPCL affair was an opportunity to encourage the nation about its possibilities, even musing, probably with an ironic smile, how he almost misjudged the matter when he was president and pestered by greed. It was an opportunity to display nobility by sending a disarming message to his arch enemy, President Bola Tinubu, to work harder to get the other refineries back to life. But no. Having jumped into the trenches and muckraked during electioneering in 2022 and 2023, and having come a cropper in the process, he must keep up his old animosities to the very end by scorning every effort to revivify mothballed or ageing facilities. Chief Obasanjo was sculpted to be a national lodestar, perhaps unfairly to the rest of Nigeria, but he has remained transfixed on desecrating his gifts and diminishing his unique opportunities.

All is, however, not lost. Chief Obasanjo has promised himself many more years on earth, of course, leaving God no choice. In theory, and ignoring his flighty nature, he can make amends and be the man nature and heaven designed him to be. No one dares hope for his sake that he will fail to grab the chance with both hands. Should he, therefore, have a rethink, the country will be waiting eagerly to send him forth in a blaze of glory. He may not deserve it, having pipped the country at the post as it were, but it would be worth the effort for a beleaguered nation in search of heroes. He may not even have drawn the right lessons from the legacy of the late US president Jimmy Carter, whom he recommended to leaders everywhere to emulate, but his many leadership misdeeds and the damaging superficiality of his decisions will probably be glossed over should he, in the twilight of his years, foster the ethnic and political reconciliation Nigeria deeply yearns for. Hopefully he will seize the flicking moment.

January 5, 2025
Kwankwaso translates eccentricity into conundrum

Former vice president Atiku Abubakar is the remaining member of the troika (who lost the last presidential election to President Bola Tinubu) who is yet to disclaim the reported impending merger of the three main opposition parties, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). Though he or his spokesmen are often spontaneous in their responses to Nigeria’s fluid political dynamics, they have kept ghostly silent so far as the other two parties shout from their rooftops. Today, in the three parties, Alhaji Atiku is recognised as the PDP leader, though he shirks his responsibilities when it comes to getting his hands dirty in managing the party’s unpleasant schisms; Peter Obi, former Anambra State governor, is recognised as the LP leader despite having nothing administratively and ideologically in common with the party; and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, former Kano State governor, is the NNPP leader which he is imbuing with his insularity.

An engineer and PhD degree holder, Dr kwankwaso was the first last Monday to speak scathingly about the rumoured merger between the three parties. He is not a real democrat, going by his antics in the NNPP, especially in recent weeks when he inspired a minor purge of the ‘rebellious’ senior ranks in the party, but he has never allowed his populism to deter him from denouncing anyone below or above him in any party and in any government, state or federal. Responding ostensibly to the impression Alhaji Atiku reportedly created about the purported merger of parties and power-sharing arrangement between the three former presidential candidates, Dr Kwankwaso bristled: “I have implemented a principle of allowing state governments and the federal government to focus on governance for the people until the end of the year. The most annoying thing is hearing from a source that the PDP brought scholars—about 45 of them—and told them there is a consensus that Atiku will rule for four years, Kwankwaso for four years, and Peter Obi for eight years. This is totally untrue and a blatant lie. It is infuriating that elder statesmen in their 70s and 80s are spreading such lies to these scholars. Such statements and deceit were among the reasons I and others left the party. Now, they have destabilised the party. For me to accept any arrangement, we have to revisit history.”

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Still angry and not done, the Kwankwasiyya leader fumed: “I understand the PDP thoroughly. I know their plan is to manipulate regional dynamics, bring us together, and make northerners vote for them. But we ask: what have they done for the North? These are the issues that will come into play. We have suffered the worst humiliation from these people. We loved the party and wanted to reform it for progress, but they forced us out. I left, Peter Obi left, Wike left, and many others left. Yet these are the same people now seeking to return and express interest in the presidency. This is appalling. Maybe they are remorseful or seeking forgiveness, but we have truly been humiliated by them.” To be fair to the NNPP leader, he was not one of those who swore that the 2023 presidential election was rigged, but hearing him declaim against Alhaji Atiku on radio, the main object of his diatribe, his Hausa-speaking audience would imagine he could never countenance a merger, not ever. But Dr Kwankwaso is politically eccentric, and he appears eager to continue mystifying Nigerians with his true leanings as well as keeping other political leaders and former presidential candidates on their toes.

Three days later, Mr Obi, whose sanctimonious drivel still beguiles many, weighed in and insisted there was no merger yet, nor any whisper whatsoever in that direction. As usual, he leaves everything open, sifted by the currents of reigning ideas and affiliations. He has at different times dallied with both the PDP and NNPP leaders, and has kept his options flagrantly open. He is chastened by his own political impotence, and miffed by the failure of his backers, chief among whom is ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo, to cause an upheaval in the polity fomented to railroad him into office. And despite his ideological vacuity, he is desperate to win office even at the cost of the country’s religious and ethnic harmony. He may still speak faintly about rigged 2023 elections, but he has all but reconciled himself to the fact that none of the three opposition leaders can on their own win the Nigerian presidency. He will, therefore, be the readiest to enter into a merger once the conditions are right, regardless of his insouciance.

Of all the three political leaders and former candidates, Dr kwankwaso appears to be in control of his party. On the other hand, if Mr Obi does not eventually ditch the LP, the party will at some time in the future ditch him, for he has no hold on them. As a matter of fact, neither the party nor its purported leader has emotional or any kind of connection with the other. Indeed, they scorn each other and have engaged in recriminations. On his own, Alhaji Atiku has made only a token effort to rein in the fractious members of the PDP, and every time the party’s cantankerous leaders resisted him, he recoiled into his characteristic indifference, believing that when the chips are down, the party will rally round him as a deep pocket. And herein is the riddle Dr kwankwaso will contend with in the months ahead. He says he is unwilling to let any discussions about one merger or the other distract the federal and state governments from focusing on their responsibilities, but in reality he is simply saying he has no idea yet how to disentangle the knot constraining Nigerian politics or how he would fit in. But trust this most eccentric of men and self-professed populist, when he discovers that he cannot go it alone, as he will discover soon enough, he will throw in his lot with even the most disagreeable of monarchists, if it comes to that.

January 5, 2025
Fubara’s blistering budget

Still in combat mood, in fact foul mood, Rivers State governor Siminalayi Fubara presented his 2025 budget to a three-man House of Assembly led by Oko Jumbo, and got it passed and signed in less than a week. Such budgetary haste is not unprecedented in Nigeria, but it was still blistering and obscene. The other 27-man House of Assembly led by Martin Amaewhule is at daggers drawn with the governor, and since Mr Fubara says he determines which faction is legitimate, he insists he will only present the budget to the three-man Assembly that sits in Government House. Soon, however, the squabble over which Assembly is legitimate will be resolved by the Supreme Court. The governor had better hope the courts would rule in his favour. If not, he will be faced with a number of dilemmas.

One, he will be in a quandary regarding what to do with Budget 2024, which he also presented to a three-man Assembly, with all the attendant financial and procedural illegalities. Two, he will then face the additional indignity of re-presenting the 2025 budget before the Amaehwule-led legislature which will scrutinise it with a fine-tooth comb. The victorious Assembly, should that be the fate of the 27-man legislature, will get its pound of flesh, whether the victim bleeds or not. The governor has grandstanded so far; but should he lose at the top court, his third dilemma will be whether to declare a republic, provoke a mutiny, or procure a revolution. If he would not cross that Rubicon, his hesitations will spell his doom.

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Having both dug their heels in, neither side will be willing to capitulate. They will fight to the death. What the courts are being asked to determine is whether the announcement by the 27 Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) lawmakers to defect to the All Progressives Congress (APC) was in fact consummated. The 27 will not be punished for their tactical mistake of making the announcement; they will be scalded should the other side prove by facts and documents that a defection took place in the eyes of the law. But despite all this, it beggars belief that Mr Fubara, having so far fought a rather risible war, can face the world, seduce Rivers State elders, and feel smug about running a state with three lawmakers.

January 5, 2025