The Nation Newspaper

Category: Lawal Ogienagbon

  • By their fruits

    By their fruits

    Before they became politicians, they were the people’s nemesis. It was themselves first and everything centred around them. The good things of life must be for them and their family members only. They have lived on the state for eons and are not ready to let go. These days, they parade themseoves as lovers of the people, the same people they oppressed and suppressed in the eighties.

    Now in the political era that started in 1999, these mean men masquerading as the best things to happen to the country since the return to democracy over 26 years ago have come to see themselves as social crusaders. Can you imagine the tormentors of yesterday becoming the crusaders of today? Do not be deceived. Their crusading is all for power.

    They desperately want power. It is not that they were never in power before. They wielded power not too long ago, but did nothing to improve the lot of the same people that they claim are now “hungry”. Some of them even say they too are “hungry”, even after being in power for 24 years at a go! If the masses are indeed “hungry” to borrow their word, these fat and well-fed ‘hungry’ politicians should search themselves and come up with the truth of when the ‘hunger’ started.

    The masses of Nigerians have been hungery for years. Hungry for the good things of life, such as well-equipped schools, hospitals, decent homes and companies where they can work and make a living to take care of themselves and their families. Oh! May be the people were not hungry when David Mark, then a military officer and Minister of Communications, said ‘telephone is not for the poor’. Since he joined politics, he has tried to rephrase the statement. He claimed he never meant it that way. So, how did he mean it?

    Why did he not make the denial then in the eighties? Why wait till the return of democracy to correct his Freudian slip? The people cannot be deceived. They can see through his gimmick to sweeten things now in order to get them to his side. He now heads the lowly fancied, African Democratic Congress (ADC), a coalition of spent politicians, who are never tired of trying their luck for power in every election year. Mark was Senate president for eight years under the now disintegrated Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). His eight years in office was half of the 16 that PDP held power. The party had vowed to rule for 60 years before it was brought down to earth in 2015.

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    Since then, the party has been comatose, with many members like Mark; its presidential candidate in 2023, Atiku Abubakar, and his Labour Party (LP) counterpart, Peter Obi, seeking solace in ADC. With them in their new home is John Odigie-Oyegun, a former governor of Edo State, who hit the limelight in the famous 1984 case of Saidu Garba versus the Federal Civil Service Commission (FCSC) when he on several occasions disobeyed the orders of Justice Yahya Jinadu of the Lagos High Court.

    Jinadu was no ordinary judge. He was courageous and bold  as they come. He brooked no nonsense and was not ready to allow any person no matter how powerful to trample upon his court. Oyegun was then the permanent secretary of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. His ministry oversaw the fire service. Garba was divisional fire officer at Onikan, Lagos when the nearby 32-storey Nigeria External Telecommunications (NET) building went up in flames on January 24, 1983.

    He was interdicted over the incident. His interdiction ended up in Jinadu’s court. The judge ordered Garba’s reinstatement. Oyegun flatly refused to obey the order.Oyegun’s lawyer from the Federal Ministry of Justice, who also later became a judge, indulged him.

    Jinadu was shocked to his marrows. He wonderd at the lawyer’s attitude, and disrobed him not once,  but twice in open court. Sadly, in the end, ‘big manism’ won, as Oyegun disobeyed all the court orders. Though, Jinadu’s orders were set aside on appeal  by 2-1, the judge laughed last at the Supreme Court where the verdict was unanimously (5-0) restored. But, before the victory, he had been forced out of work. His six-month notice of resignation to allow him conclude part-heard cases was rejected by the Buhari junta which directed him to go immediately.

    It is quite interesting to see the same Oyegun and his ilk today calling themselves respecters and upholders of the rule of the law. How can anybody be that if they do not obey court orders? What kind of manifesto and policy will someone like Oyegun who is the chairman of his party’s committee of the same name fashion for the association? The morning, it is said, shows the day. If you were once a disrespecter of court orders, you will always be one. Democracy cannot change that. How can it change an innate attribute mastered as an art as a top civil servant?

    The combination of  Oyegun and Mark at the top echelon of ADC is unholy. It is forged in chicanery and it cannot get the party anywhere. Oyegun might have gotten away with disobeying court orders some 42 years ago, but he and his party are unlikely to escape the people’s wrath at the polls in 2027 for past indiscretions. What have they got to offer than their legacies of disobedience of court orders and telephone is not for the poor? Voters are waiting at the polls to remind them of those legacies.

  • Their craze for ‘number one’

    Their craze for ‘number one’

    It is in the character of politicians to be in front, to be the number one. Even, where they are not the numero uno, they still see themselves as such. Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara started what can be called the game of number one when he picked up his membership card of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

    Apparently to silence mockers that he has no political base, he brandished his card and with a smile intoned: “My membership card is 001. I am now number one in APC in Rivers State”. Then, came ADC’s Peter Obi’s turn to play the same card. While campaigning for a LP candidate in the forthcoming council elections in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Obi said he would be contesting for “number one” in 2027.

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    Obi might have done that to impress the Obidients, members of the amorphous group behind his political ministry. They supported him in 2023 when he contested on LP platform and have warned him against joining ADC if he won’t get the party’s presidential ticket in 2027. Is there any elective post called number one? I am contesting for president is I am contesting for president. Any reason for the cryptic signal?

  • The wages of a coup plot

    The wages of a coup plot

    The 1999 CONSTITUTI0N (as amended) makes it abundantly clear how a government can come into being or can be effectively changed. It can only be born or changed in an election that takes place every four years. Any other means of doing that, it says, is illegal, null and void ab initio (from the beginning).In effect, the framers of the Constitution had envisaged a situation where human nature may at times be at play.

    In such a situation, some risk-takers would seek to forcefully take over the government and impose themselves on the people. To check this folly, Section 1 (2) of the Constitution warns: The Federal Republic of Nigeria shall not be governed, nor shall any person or group of persons take control of the Government of Nigeria or any part thereof, except in accordance with the provisions of this Constitution. Perhaps, the legal draughtsmen were guided in their action by the experience of the trend then emerging in the world.

    By the time of the drafting of the 1999 Constitution and its 1979 precursor, the country had run through several military rules. This series of military interregnum began with the coup of January 15, 1966, which 60th tragic anniversary was celebrated some two weeks ago. The coup later plunged Nigeria into a bitter civil war in 1967.

    Nigeria has not only seen but lived the evil that the forceful takeover of government is, and has quite rightly settled for the democratic system of government. As the great Awo said: ‘the worst democracy is better than the most benevolent military regime’. Nothing can be truer than that statement. So, anybody can imagine the shock when reports of a coup plot were run by an online publication last October. Though known for its brash practice, the publication caught on like wildfire. It became a subject of discussions everywhere.

    The military which normally is taciturn when it comes to such things was drawn out. But it gave nothing away. Rather, it kept things close to its chest. Though, the discerning knew that something was amiss from what it said, they bought the official line while waiting for what would happen next. This did not take long. The country home and Abuja residence of a former state executive were searched, and some documents carted away. The man who is outside the country has remained abroad since then, despite all the chest-beating to return home in no time!

    The veil over the coup plot was removed on Monday when the military, without mincing word, confirmed that indeed there was a plot to  overthrow the government. The Defence Headquarters (DHQ) said investigations into the plot for which some officers were arrested for what it initially described as ‘indiscipline’ had been concluded and the report forwarded to the appropriate superior authority, in line with extant military regulations.

    “The findings have identified a number of officers with allegations of plotting to overthrow the government, which is inconsistent with the ethics, values and professional standards required of members of the Atmed Forces of Nigeria (AFN), DHQ said in a statement by its spokesman, Major-Gen Sumaila Uba. “Accordingly, those with cases to answer will be formally arraigned before an appropriate military judicial panel to face trial in accordance with the Armed Forces Act and other applicable service regulations”.

    The confirmation marks the beginning of another phase in the saga. Coups or rumours of coups are not usually stories that the media rush to town with. The advent of the social media, with its culture of Citizen Journalism, has changed all that. At the click of a phone button, reports whether confirmed or not, now travel at the speed of light. If there is a speed faster than that, they would have travelled at that velocity, together with its concomitant damage. The power and reach of the social media are enormous. Within the twinkling of an eye, whatever report it releases goes viral, causing panic everywhere.

    Not a few said “not again” when the online medium ran the coup plot story. Unfortunately, some influential people tried to politicise it. They wanted confirmation immediately about the plot to or else it is not true. To them, the only way they would believe that there was such a plot is for the  government to release facts and figures concerning it. It was either their way or no other way.

    Wait a minute. How does any government do such a thing when the matter was still being investigated? In order not to jeopardise investigations and in the process, destroy the career of those who may be innocent, such probes are handled discreetly until the exercise is concluded. This is an age-long military practice which has no place for politics.

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    Things have changed and we should be glad that they have. Reason: coups or reports of coups are stories that were hitherto not touched even with a 10-foot pole until the military say-so. Then, the media reported a coup plot at its own risk because there was nothing usually to back up the story. How will you say you got the story? Sources? That even makes matters worse because you have just unwittingly told them you have an ‘insider’ feeding you with information.

    The military that I know will not rest until you name that person. The only alternative is to go in for it as part of the plot since a journalist must protect his source come what may. How many Citizen Journalists will not wither under military gaze and sing like a bird, if push becomes shove? How many? The thinking is if you are not among the plotters, you will not know so much about what is purely a military affair. Coups are purely military matters. Any civilian caught in the web is also tried under military law, irrespective of his status.

    This is why in the military, coups are no tea party. They are matters of life and death. You live to tell the story, if you succeed and pay the supreme price, if you fail. Plotters know what they are going into beforehand, so they too are prepared for the worse. This is why coups are hush-hush business. Also, plotters do not discuss such matters even with their wives for the fear of a leak. They know the price of such a leak. If the plot leaks, the wife is as culpable as her husband, for not reporting to the authorities after being aware of it.

    Nonetheless, it is the trial that will determine the guilt or otherwise of the suspects in this instant case. No more, no less. May we remind those weeping more than the bereaved that the suspects’ investigation does not amount to conviction. They may yet be freed by the court martial, if they have no case to answer. Those asking for evidence of the plot should show interest in the trial so as to ensure that justice is not only done, but also seen to be done. As Nigerians, let us come together and say no more coups.

  • Police and the Kaduna abductions

    Police and the Kaduna abductions

    WE HAVE WALKED THIS path before as a nation. That was in 2014. Twelve years after, we are back on the same road, and the bone of contention is similar. Mass abduction! Were over 150 persons abducted in Kajuru in Kaduna State on Sunday? Christian leaders in the state  are claiming that they were. They put the figure at 172. Nine were said to have escaped, leaving 163 in captivity. The government and the police refuted the claim.

    It is 2014 all over again, yet the 2026 case is eerily odd. The story is being hotly contested by the government and the police. You will say that also happened in 2014. That year in a government girls secondary school in Chibok, Borno State, some 274 pupils were whisked away in the dead of the night. The school and the community raised the alarm. They looked up to the government for help to get the girls back. Rather than act swiftly, Abuja footdragged. How can 274 girls be roused from sleep and carted away like that when they are not sheep? Some officials were said to have asked, as they made light of the issue.

    But it was not a joke. The abduction was real and the reality only dawned on the powers that be two weeks later. By then, it was too late to get the girls back intact. They had been distributed like chattels to the different cells of the  Boko Haram Islamic Sect that abducted them. As a nation, till today, we rue the missed opportunity to rescue those girls intact at the earliest possible time. We are still haunted by the image of Leah Sharibu, one of the girls who defied the abductors and has remained with them ever since. One only hopes that the same scenario is not now playing out in Kaduna!

    It is now four days that the abductees were said to have been seized from three churches in Kurmin Wali in Kajuru Local Government Area of Kaduna State. Media reports said the incidents took place simultaneously. Some said the affected worship places were a Catholic and two Cherubim and Seraphim (C & S) Churches. Yet, some said they were an ECWA and two C & S Churches. Late on Wednesday, the Force Headquarters confirmed the affected places were a Catholic, an ECWA and a C & S Churches. From the reports, the assailants were said to have stormed the churches in large numbers, encircled the worshippers and marched them in one single file into nearby forests.

    This is a serious matter which should be handled with the utmost sense of urgency and care that it deserves. Our worship places and schools, no matter how remotely located they are, should not be allowed to become easy targets for  kidnappers to go to at will and pack as many people as they wish. Unfortunately, these places and schools have become human fishing grounds for these marauders. They operate with impunity, and in most cases, they enjoy the cooperation of the locals, who out of fear and at times, pecuniary gains, have no choice but to do their bidding.

    Unwittingly, such people have emboldened these criminals by becoming accessories to the fact. From the look of things, what happened in Kurmin Wali four days ago is gradually unfolding. Why did the police and the government initially say there were no abductions, contrary to the claims of the Christian leaders? Rather than dispute the claim, the police should have dug deeper before talking. It reacted hastily without first discharging its primary function of investigating the claim.

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    It would have cost the police nothing to say that the matter was under investigation and that the public would be briefed on developments. These are challenging times for the country and our security agencies must be seen to be up and doing and proactive.

    We are in the firing line, so to say. In the wake of Donald Trump’s claim of “Christian genocide” in Nigeria for which he came ‘gun-a-blazing’ last Christmas eve to take out the terrorists behind these killings, our security agencies, especially the police, must be careful how they react to terror attacks and other related incidents. They cannot afford to do anything that would make them to look partial or lead to their being accused of a cover up.

    Their job is to detect crime and bring the perpetrators to justice. They cannot do it alone. They need the support of the people. So, when the Kajuru incident happened, the police should have held back a little considering that the crime scene was in a remote community. In such a situation, they should not rely on one or two sources to draw their conclusions, they should have reached out to as many people as possible, including the common man on the street, who might have seen or heard something about the incidents.

    This should serve as a lesson to the police and the government. They should not be too hasty to take only what they consider as ‘good infoŕmation’ to reach conclusions on matters. They should look at the ‘bad’ and the ‘ugly’ as well and sieve them to determine the truth before talking. On what information did the Commissioner of Police Muhammad Rabiu, Kajuru Local Government Chairman Dauda Madaki, and Internal Security and Home Affairs Commissioner Sule Shaibu base their claim that there were no abductions in Kurmin Wali last Sunday?

    Did they subject the information to any proof before running with it? It only shows that all they were interested in is that there was no such incident so that they can rush back to the governor and gush, “your excellency, all is calm. There is no cause for alarm”. There was cause for alarm and Governor Uba Sani deserves to know the truth so that all his efforts to enthrone peace in Southern Kaduna and every part of the state do not come to nought.

    Just as the respected leader of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) in the 19 northern states and Abuja, Reverend Joseph Hayab, said in the heat of the row over whether the incidents happened or not, the governor has been working tirelessly to ensure law and order, but that is not to say that something that happened should be swept under the carpet. It is not what the government and the police want to hear that matters, it is what happened that is relevant. Were people kidnapped in Kajuru? Yes, the police finally admitted. So, why was it initially hard to tell the governor the truth so that he can mobilise resources for the abductees’ swift rescue?

    Hiding such truth from those in power does not amount to helping them. It further alienates them from the governed who know no other person than the leader and call him out for all actions and inactions, even though he may not know about them. This is the danger of hiding the truth from a leader. The security agencies and the close aides of governors shouod know this and learn from the Kajuru incident that it is better to say the truth than hide it. Contrary to their thinking, this is not political correctness; it is political harakiri.

    The person who bears the brunt at the end of the day is the leader, not the police and his aides. Let security agencies and political appointees help leaders by telling them the truth about happenings in the country, no matter how bad things may be, and leave them to take the decisions they deem fit. A leader is a captain, and there can only be one captain in a ship.

  • On the chopping block

    On the chopping block

    Seven Days Have passed between last Thursday and today that the Rivers State House of Assembly adopted a motion to initiate impeachment proceedings against Governor Siminalayi Fubara. According to the 1999 Constitution (as amended), the impeachment notice must be served within seven days.

    Speaker Martin Amaewhule promised to ensure that it  was served within the stipulated time. The assembly later claimed that it had served the governor the notice. When was it served? Who acknowledged receipt of the notice? What time was it served? The answers to these posers are not in public domain.

    This first hurdle is critical to any planned impeachment. It must be followed strictly in order to give the governor fair hearing as enshrined in Section 36  of the Constitution. If at any point in time, it emerges that he was not granted fair hearing, the exercise will be rendered a nullity. So, for both parties the time element is essential. When do we start counting the time in this instant case? If we start from the day of the assembly’s special plenary where the decision was taking, seven days have passed.

    Meaning that the governor is left with seven days to respond to the allegations of gross misconduct against him and his deputy, Prof Ngozi Odu. It must also be stated that it is also within his right not to reply, but that would not be a wise thing to do. Why? This is because whether or not he responds, the assembly is constitutionally empowered to go on with the exercise. He can also not say that he was not served.

    The office of governor is one and  it is staffed by people expected to receive such communication on his behalf. Things should not be complicated for the governor by those who are now saying that he was not served the impeachment notice. Are those in the governor’s office saying the document was not delivered there and received by them? The governor is not expected to, and should not, receive correspondence personally by virtue of his office.

    Impeachment is serious business, and nobody knows this more than the governor himself. You cannot evade the service of an impeachment notice. Those thinking the governor can do that by saying that he was not served, and as such ignore the notice, should perish the thought. That is a dangerous path to tread. The governor, and not those people, is at the receiving end and they should not worsen things for him. For the sake of emphasis, this is what Section 188 (3) of the Constitution say:

    Within fourteen days of the presentation of the notice to the Speaker of the House of Assembly (whether or not any statement was made by the holder of the office in reply to the allegation contained in the notice), the House of Assembly shall resolve by motion, without any debate whether or not the allegation shall be investigated. That Fubara was not around when the notice was served is not sufficient ground to vitiate the process. Wherever a governor is in the world when such katakata bursts, they are expected to rush back home to douse the fire.

    Fubara can still save the situation, even though the assembly has vowed not to spare him this time around. Upon his return to office following the lapse of the six-month state of emergency in Rivers, he should have courted the lawmakers rather than continue to antagonise them. Politics is about give and take. The more reason he should have done this is hecause he knows their loyalty lies elsewhere. Who says he cannot woo them to his side, if he plays his politics right?

    We have seen such happen elsewhere before. But to get them, he has to play their politics and talk to them in the language they understand. He must have heard about the anecdote of ‘people talk to people, people understand’ in political circles. If he has chosen to remain a minority and be in the shadow of those he should lead as their governor then he is not a politician. No political godson can unseat his godfather that way. Wooing the lawmakers would cost him nothing, but treating them as a pariah may be the beginning of the end.

    He may have the President’s ears, but he must understand the political terrain well to continue to enjoy this privilege. Saying that the President asked him to join APC,  or brandishing a membership card bearing ‘001’ does not confer automatic leadership right or an assurance of a second term ticket on an incumbent who acts out of turn. Are there anything to the allegations of gross misconduct against him? Did he act in breach of the Constitution as alleged? It is a grave offence to breach the Constitution.

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    Why should a governor spend public funds without appropriation by the assembly or decline to send a list of commissioner-nominees for screening and confirmation? Can special advisers constitute the executive council of a state (EXCO) and approve the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) on which fiscal budgets are predicated? Fubara’s mistake is not knowing how to manage the lawmakers in the face of his feud with their common benefactor, Nyesom Wike. If he had handled things well, he might have won the lawmakers over to the consternation of their godfather.

    This may be too late now. The battleline is drawn again. His only hope is in the President. But for how long will he continue to run to the President? The President has many other matters to contend with, without being bogged down by Fubara’s self-inflicted woes. He knows what to do, but has deliberately refused to do it for reasons best known to him. Those calling for peace today should have intervened long before things got to a head. They should not have waited for the impeachment proceedings to be initiated before wading in the crisis.

    What this says about them is that they do not want the governor impeached, but they are comfortable with him governing without following due process. When the Supreme Court described Fubara as a “despot”, they did not call him to order. When the President declared a state of emergency in Rivers last March to save him from impeachment then, some of them described it as illegal. Strangely, now that the assembly has again resorted to impeachment, they want peace because his neck is on the chopping block!

    Only Fubara can save Fubara from himself. He knows what to do if he wants this cup to pass over him.

  • Matters arising

    Matters arising

    IT IS EARLY DAYS yet in the new year, but things have been happening at dizzying speed. The American President Donald Trump’s invasion of Venezuela; the coming of the tax law; the political gerrymandering of Governor Seyi Makinde and former Minister of Finance Kemi Adeosun; and the unfolding developments on the political scene have started to shape 2026.

    From nowhere, the United States (U.S.) invaded oil-rich Venezuela last Saturday, snatched President Nicolas Maduro, his wife, Cilia Flores, and flew them to New York, where they are now facing trial for narcotic and other related offences. The invasion has defined the beginning of the year like no other issue has.

    Trump is still hungry for more territories. He is eyeing Cuba, Colombia, Mexico and Greenland, which is under the sovereignty of Denmark in Europe. The world is on edge as Trump continues in his desperate bid to use the American might to oppress, suppress, and depress other countries. What does he want? His fellow American compatriots too cannot say. Many of them are not happpy with the image he is giving their country, but they cannot do anything to stop him.

    His allies are comfortable with him. Allies like Marco Rubio and Stephen Miller can die for him. They have lauded his invasion of Venezuela, describing him as “a talk and do president”. “When this president says he is going to do something, you had better listen because he will surely do it”, Rubio enthused on television shortly after the invasion, which Trump described as “watching television”.

    How can any person reduce the invasion of another country’s territorial integrity to ‘watching television’. That is Trump for you. He poses as the fighter for the rights of the oppressed in some countries, but does the opposite elsewhere where assets that he wants to acquire are at stake. After the invasion, he says U.S. would ‘run’ Venezuela and has warned its new president, Delcy Rodriguez, to play along with him or suffer a fate worse than Maduro’s. Will the world just watch and allow him to annex Greenland too?

    All of a sudden because of the tax law which implementation began seven days ago, almost every Nigerian has become a bean counter. We now look at everything in terms of the cost of tax. If I do this or that, how much tax will I pay? This is the question they now ask. It is not everything that is taxable. You will not pay tax on food or recharge cards or data. You will only pay tax on your income.

    Anything that does not come to you as income is not taxable. Money transferred to you to help a friend buy a car, build a house or for your personal use is not taxable. The stamp duty for transfer hitherto known as electronic money transfer levy will be paid by the sender. The charge is N50 for every transfer above N10000. The pay as you earn (PAYE) deducted from monthly salary has been reworked to exempt certain class of workers from income tax payment.

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    Those earning N800000 and below per annum are exempted from payment. Workers will now pay tax on salary above the N800000 threshold. If you are earning N900000, N1 million and so on, you pay tax calculated on the N100000, N200000 et al, that is above the N800000 mark. This means that high income earners will pay more tax in order to bring relief to the poor, who earn little or nothing.

    The beauty of the law is its provision for the Tax Ombudsman whose job, among others, is to ensure that none is unduly taxed or ripped off. Government should ensure that the ombudsman does his job effectively and efficiently without delay. Complaints should not be allowed to drag too long, otherwise the purpose of having the office, which I believe will be in all the 36 states and Abuja, will be defeated.

    Makinde is fighting to extricate himself from a self-inflicted problem over the Bodija explosion fund. Former Ekiti State Governor Ayo Fayose said Makinde got N50 billion from the Federal Government. Makinde said it was N30 billion. Whether N50 billion or N30 billion why did Makinde have to wait for Fayose’s exposè  before he told the world about the N30billion? So, if Fayose did not say anything, Makinde and his administration would have kept quiet about the fund and pretended that all is well after spending N4.5 billion out of it, without mentioning the source of the money?

    The affairs of a democratic government are not run like that. Did the governor even tell the House of Assembly about the money? Was the N4.5 billion disbursed with the lawmakers’ appropriation? The governor’s claim that a certain percentage of the N20 billion balance is being demanded before release is an afterthought. Why did he not cry out before the Fayose revelation? Did he undertake the recent changes in his executive council because of a leak about  this development?

    Kemi Adeosun has found her voice years after she resigned as finance minister over a fake National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) discharge certificate. She said her resignation was not admission of guilt. Is that so? Did she use a fake NYSC discharge certificate or not? Use of fake documents is an offence. If she is sure of what she is saying, she can ask that the case be reopened for investigation. Otherwise, she should let sleeping dogs lie.

    The political scene is bubbling ahead of 2027. Peter Obi has defected from Labour Party (LP) to African Democratic Congress (ADC).Will he get the party’s 2027 presidential ticket? Can he still count on the support of the Obi-dients, the vociferous movement on social media with little electoral value? How many votes can those openly identifying with his defection to ADC give him? How strong politically is the man who says he would withdraw his support for him if he does not get ADC’s ticket? Some people just like to sound off!

    Let’s sign off on Rivers and its potentialities for the 2027 elections. Will Governor Siminilayi Fubara get a second term ticket on his new platform, APC? If he does, can he win? Can his estranged godfather, who is Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister Nyesom Wike stop him from getting APC ticket or determine who becomes the next governor? All eyes are on the state as to how these issues and the bigger presidential contest will play out in 2027. These are early days yet, but they are pointers to what to expect next year.

  • 2026 Nigeria: Looking forward backward

    2026 Nigeria: Looking forward backward

    It Is the first day of 2026, the year that looked far away at the dawn of 2025, 12 months ago. It is now here and as I type this, I do so in awe of the unseen God, who rules in the affairs of men. If you are reading this, it means only one thing: you are alive and well. Compliments.

    For the living, it is a great joy to be alive, especially on New Year’s day on which people place a lot of premium. What is it about the first day of a year that makes people so sentimental and spiritual about it? How is January 1 different from February 1, March 1, April 1, May 1, June 1, or any other first day of a new month for that matter? May be January 1 is special because it is the first month and the first day in the 12-month Gregorian calendar.

    Worldwide, the coming of a new year is celebrated with fanfare. It is heralded with music and fireworks at the stroke of midnight, depending on the time zone of a country. Beyond the celebrations is what the new year may have in stock for the individual and his country. Ahead of a new year, plans and projections are usually made, with targets and timelines set.

    A new year is also a time for resolutions by individuals and predictions by men who believe that they can see tomorrow. These Nostradamuses are already at work, telling the world what they said they heard from God. What did God say about 2026, the year that will set the tone for the election year of 2027? Their predictions for the year ranged from the sublime to the ridiculous. Before we look at what those predictions, let us take things in our own hands, beginning from the known to the unknown.

    The unknown is the forte of the prophets. It is the realm in which they operate because of their so-called direct access to God. According to them, they hear from God clearly and all they do is to pass His messages to us, the undiscerning. I tell you, we heard a lot from them last night as 2025 rolled away. Some of them ran ahead of themselves by releasing their prophecies long before yesterday. They have been changing those prophecies as situations demand to meet the exigency of the time.

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    If you like, call it a prediction or whatever! For a start, the implementation of  the new tax law begins today. It will not take off, only if today is not January 1, 2026. The tax law has its benefits for the hoi poloi, who have over the years borne the brunt of government’s economic policies. They have been made beasts of burden working with nothing to show for it. This new tax law brings them relief. As low-income earners, they will henceforth, pay nil tax. Middle income earners will pay marginal (lower) tax, while high income earners will pay more.

    For long, high income earners circumvented the tax net. They paid little or nothing as tax, yet they made billions of naira every year. Their salary was not proportional to their income tax, commonly known as pay as you earn (PAYE). Taxes are major sources of revenue for government globally, especially in Europe and the Americas, with high income earners paying heavily to subsidise the poor. Next is the war against terror which will be intensified. The controversy over the purported doctoring of the law will fade away. This is not because of its implementation, but the inability to substantiate the claim of its alteration made by lawmaker Abdulsamad Dasuki

    The Christmas Day bombing of Tangaza in Sokoto State, said to be a base for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terrorists, may be child’s play, considering what awaits them and other related groups in the epicentres of terrorism and insurgency in parts of Northeast and Northcentral. The joint Nigeria-U.S. operation in Tangaza shocked intelligence analysts who had thought that such assault would begin either in Borno or any other state in Northeast known as hotbeds of insurgency. The world has seen the first strike. It was deadly, with colossal and collateral damages in farflung places.

    The next one will be deadlier and the damages more stupendous. The collateral damage will also be massive, as there is no control over how far the debris from the fired missiles will go. So, in taking down the terrorists, many innocent bystanders may also be killed or maimed. It is unfortunate; very, very unfortunate. As usual, politics and economy will shape the nation’s outlook in 2026. As a petrol-dependent economy, developments at the international oil market will impact the economy. Oil price will remain a key determinant of the success of the budget.

    Locally, Dangote Refinery will remain a dominant force in the downstream sector, as regards the pricing of petrol. For now, the plant has brought down the price to N739 per litre to the annoyance of many marketers. Consumers are enjoying the fallout of this power play as they get Epo Dangote (Dangote petrol) at MRS outlets for N739. Will the romance endure? This is the fear of many, who have advised that an eye be kept on the plant to ensure that it does not become too big to control and regulate.

    Dangote is having a field day at the expense of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), which has been commercialised in name only. Its four refineries in Port Harcourt, where two are located; Kaduna and Warri may remain comatose, despite the billions of dollars spent on them. The nation cannot afford to continue to waste scarce resources on those refineries. As declared by former Rivers State governor and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister Nyesom Wike last December, ‘politics will start in 2026’.

    He was talking about the 2027 elections. Indeed, preparations for the elections will start this year. The parties will be holding their congresses and conventions to pick candidates for the polls. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has said it would hold its convention in March, which is just two months away. None of the other parties has made such a categorical statement because of their internal crises. With the leading opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) losing virtually all its governors to APC, the months ahead of the elections will be interesting.

    Will PDP have a presidential candidate for 2027? What I am seeing in the crystal ball is not good at all. A chef knows that you cannot make omelette without breaking an egg. Likewise, PDP may not have a presidential candidate if it does not put its house in order first. The portents are not good for the party, as can be seen from what has happened to its candidate for the June 20 Ekiti State Governorship election. The morning, they say, shows the day. I am sorry,  if I sound like one of those prophets. Happy New Year, dear readers.

  • Trekking in the wild

    Trekking in the wild

    • Papiri schoolkids ordeal in captivity

    Many Hearts would have skipped at the sight of the kids. It was not something to behold. As they alighted from the buses that brought them to the Government House, Minna, the Niger State capital on Monday, I shuddered as I beheld the tiny tots on television. These kids are too small to undergo what they have just experienced, I muttered under my breath.

    They had just gone through what could be likened to hell and back. Some would say that the kids are lucky they returned alive, while others would wonder what kind of human beings could have kidnapped them. The thought of kidnapping itself is repulsive, not to talk of the act. It happened, anyway, in the chilly hours of the night of November 21.

    They were in their hostels when the marauders struck. The invaders number is unknown, but they reportedly went away with 280 people, comprising 265 pupils and 15 teachers. Fifty of the pupils escaped, leaving 230 others in the hands of the kidnappers. With 230 souls, they knew that they had the government by its balls. To them, the remaining 215 pupils and 15 teachers was ‘good business’ in terms of what they would get from the head of each abductee.

    This is what human life has been reduced to by these terrorists, as the Federal Government has now classified all these criminals, whether kidnappers, bandits, militants or insurgents. Classification is not enough. They should be wiped away from the face of the earth to give the public the assurance that no child would ever be kidnapped from school again. As a nation, we have allowed this criminal act to fester to the extent that terrorists now see themselves as being above the law.

    It is time to draw the line for them, using the Papiri incident to say enough is enough. The kids cut a pitiable picture, as they filed out in a straight line on arrival at the government house. I blinked several times as I watched them walk into the place so that my eyes would get accustomed to what I was seeing. I was shattered by what I saw. I never expected any sane person to kidnap such kids, many of who are under seven or below, judging by their looks. Believe it or not, they had just gone through roving in mangroves as they were being herded from one forest to the other by people old enough to be their parents.

    They are too small to have undergone that harrowing and horrible experience. These kids; these children who do not know their right from their left were sent to boarding school by parents who believe in the life changing power of education. Their parents wanted the best for them in life, and the first steps toward achieving that was to enrol them in a school where their outlook will be shaped. They might have chosen a boarding school, believing that it is a proper place for grooming children.

    Can we blame their parents for sending them to boarding school? This is not just any boarding school, but a faith-based one, the kind of which many of us attended in the past, without any hitch. Then, schools never had this kind of nasty experience of kidnapping, vandalising, killing and looting. Schools even in the remotest part of a community were safe and secure for learning. It was unheard of that some mad men stormed a school to kidnap pupils and teachers. Papiri was not the only school invaded in November.  A girls school in Maga, Kebbi State, was attacked on November 17, four days before the Papiri incident.

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    There is a historical angle to these invasions. These marauders struck in Chibok, Borno State in 2014; Dapchi, Yobe State, 2018; Kankara, Katsina State, 2020, and in 2021, four secondary schools and a private university in four states of Katsina, Niger, Zamfara, and Kaduna were attacked. In 2024, two schools in two states of Kaduna and Sokoto suffered the same fate. By now, the nation should have overcome the challenge, but it seems to have defied solution, with the rate kidnappers now strike across the country. In Maga, they snatched 24 schoolgirls on November 17, and four days later, they hit St Mary Catholic Private Nursery, Primary and Secondary Schools in Papiri, Agwara Local Government Area of Niger State.

    The invaders always caught the security agencies flatfooted whenever they struck. At times, the security operatives withdraw from the scene hours or minutes before the attackers strike. The Kebbi school raid might not have happened, if the soldiers posted there had not left about 30 or so minutes to the invaders arrival. The soldiers claimed that they were directed to withdraw. Governor Nasir Idris has been shouting blue murder since, alleging that it was an act of sabotage. Truly, there is no other way to describe what happened. The matter is said to be under investigation. By now, a preliminay report should have been issued to assure the public that there is no cover up.

    The nation must know what happened in Maga. As the nation rejoices over the release of the  Papiri kids and their teachers, the point must be made that things cannot be allowed to continue like this. There must be a reason for the spike in school kidnapping and related incidents in recent time. It is up to the government to find out those behind the rising incidents and deal with them. The government cannot sit back and allow some elements to make the country ungovernable.

    Whatever may be the motives of the perpetrators and their sponsors, the government, which has all the coercive and suasive power should always be a step ahead of them. Of what use is our intelligence security outfits if they cannot nip these acts in the bud? The public has borne for long with successive governments on the security issue, yet the problem keeps rearing its ugly head. There cannot be any excuse for kidnapping to thrive as if it is an industry. It is not and it should never be allowed to become one under this administration’s watch.

    As the President has repeatedly said, he was elected to take hard and courageous decisions to make life meaningful for the people. Nigerians can only get a better life under a safe, secure and serene environment where children go to school; parents go to work, and citizens travel across the country without the fear of being kidnapped. They cannot do all these now because of the fear of terrorists.

    It may not be the President’s fault, but it is his lot today to restore sanity in the land. He can do it and he must do it for the sake of posterity. The haunting looks of those freed  Papiri schoolkids should propel him to cut these kidnappers to size. No innocent schoolkid should be allowed to undergo such trauma again.

    •Merry Christmas, dear readers

  • Emergency power: Supreme verdict for the ages

    Emergency power: Supreme verdict for the ages

    Outside a validly declared state of emergency, the President possesses no power whatsoever to interfere with state executive or legislative institutions – Supreme Court

    WITH THESE REMARKS, the Supreme Court, has once and for all, cleared the air over a vexed provision under Section 305 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) dealing with the extraordinary measures that the President can take in a state where he has declared a state of emergency. By the way, the statement was made in passing, and I believe that it was deliberate on the part of their Lordships .

    It was made in passing because the court went out of its way to do so, after holding that it has no jurisdiction to hear the case which it equally held that the plaintiffs had no locus standi (legal right) to file. The case was instituted by 11 states against the state of emergency declared in Rivers on March 18 by Predident Bola Tinubu. He also suspended the governor, his deputy and the House of Assembly. All the institutions were restored on September 18.

    For long, the court had shied away from speaking on Section 305 under which the President can declare a state of emergency in any part of the country under certain conditions in order to restore peace, law and order. These conditions are, among others, when the nation is at war; under real or imminent threat of danger; and the breakdown of law and order.

    For reasons best known to the apex court when similar cases came to it in the past, it refrained from making any pronouncement on the section, preferring to, as they say, ‘blow muted trumpet’ by allowing the issue to pass. For instance, it struck out the suit brought against the state of emergency declared in Plateau State by former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2004 for want of jurisdiction and allowed the matter to end there. Obasanjo suspended then Governor Joshua Dariye and the House of Assembly in the wake of the emergency. President Tinubu did the same thing in Rivers 10 months ago.

    So, the Plateau and Rivers cases are ‘on all fours’. But something changed in the Rivers case. The court came out boldly to pronounce on Section 305, perhaps to settle for all time the unending row over whether or not the President can suspend a governor, his deputy and the state legislature where there is a state of emergency.

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    It is obvious that the Supreme Court’s decision is in response to calls to lend its voice to the matter and lay it to rest forever. This column was among those that made such calls. In a March 27 article titled: Much ado about Section 305, we appealed to the court to so act so that the nation can benefit from its wisdom. Part of the article is reproduced below, with the rest concluded online.

    An institution like the Supreme Court should not keep mute when the nation is confronted with serious legal and constitutional matters because of mere technicality such as want of jurisdiction. It should go into the merit of the case and make its stand known for good or for ill. The court should not be too legalistic on such matters, and the issue of Section 305 is one of them. There are times that the court should not talk too much law in order to resolve certain issues in the national interest. It has done well to speak on Section 305 without being inhibited by the technical issue of jurisdiction. It does not have to make a declarative, consequential or injunctive order on every case to achieve this.

    It is not always that the court should use the force of law to correct things. At times, moral force achieves more than the force of law because once the Supreme Court speaks whether on the merit of a case or not, its name would do the rest. The court’s name alone is enough authority on any matter. When you  hear: ‘the Supreme Court has said…’, you sit up and ask no further questions.

    It is in the light of this that some people are now dissipating energy on whether the court in the Rivers case upheld the President’s power to suspend a governor, his deputy and the state assembly during a state of emergency. If the majority decision did not uphold that power, what then did it say? The quote at the top of this essay is clear and unambiguous and it comes from the lead judgment. It is not written in French or Latin, but in plain, simple English. Again, if the majority decision did not uphold the President’s power to so act during an emergency, why then is there a dissenting judgment?

    I believe the dissenting Justice’s action was informed by his disagreement with his Learned Brothers’ stand.  Although, the position might have come as an opinion (obiter dictum) in the course of the judgment which struck out the suit for lack of jurisdiction, it amounts to Intellectual fraud for anybody to want to twist the statement. What those arguing this way wanted was for the court to disclaim the President’s action and upbraid him for what they consider as undermining the Constitution. Thus, all this their noise about the Supreme Court not upholding the President’s power to suspend some democratic institutions during a state of emergency.

    They should hold their breath and wait for the certified true copy (CTC) of the judgment. No matter the noise, what is written has been written and cannot be altered. The Supreme Court, the judicial oracle in Abuja, has spoken and so be it.

  • Much ado about Section 305

    Much ado about Section 305

    It is a section of the Constitution not frequently used, except the need arises. Whenever it is used, it causes a quake in the land. The country has been quaking since President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency in Rivers State on March 18 after invoking the almighty Section 305 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended). The imposition of emergency rule is not the problem, the din is over the suspension of Governor Siminalayi Fubara, the deputy, Prof Ngozi Odu, and the House of Assembly…