Category: Tuesday

  • News or fib?

    News or fib?

    News or fib?  You better pop that question, as you tear through the latest menu on the on-going West-Russia face-off over Ukraine.

    The United States claims a Russia Ukraine invasion is only days away.  Russia counters it’s withdrawing its troops, after some war games around Ukraine borders.

    The only things you can track — but hardly vouch for — are the specific claims and counter-claims.  All else perhaps is spin.

    The West, over the years, is notorious for raining its values (no crime?) and its biases (no virtues either) on other races, in its perennial go at cultural domination.

    A core value is “democracy”, in which Russia and former satellite communist states are trapped, after the 1991 collapse of communism, as global opposite to capitalism.

    A core bias — call it vice, if you will — is the West’s activism in gay rights, which it tears from harsh censure of faith and morals, to the sweet, airy plain of “human rights”.

    Why? Age-old sodomy the West and its mass media now garnish and push as regnant rights; for which the Metropole must harshly sanction erring peripheral races!

    The USA/Europe versus Russia showdown on Ukraine, however, is more of an intra-tribal war among basically the same people, nevertheless torn apart by ideology and sundry preferences.

    Ukraine is the big prize — a former state in the defunct Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR: 1922-1991), pushing to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO, formed in 1949): the post-World War 2 North America/Western Europe capitalist defence alliance, arrayed against the Soviet communist Warsaw Pact (dissolved 1991), to which Ukraine belonged.

    Indeed Ukraine, in historical terms, echoes the 1955 birth of the Warsaw Pact.  West Germany just got admitted into NATO.  So the USSR, which principal state was Russia, rallied communist East Germany and other satellites to enter the Warsaw Pact.

    So, if Russia now balks at Ukraine pushing to join NATO, you could see the history behind it.  Besides, for context: it is like Texas (which sometimes threatens to pull out of the United States) actually doing so; and leaving NATO for another defence alliance which its former satellite states, in the USA and Europe, consider hostile.

    But what Ukraine is to the West is what Belarus is to the old Soviet bloc.  Belarus is comfy with Russia, as much as Ukraine seeks fresh friends in Western Europe.

    By the way, Russia and Belarus labour under skewed post-communist era “democracy”, for which they get throatily mocked by the West.  Both, however, face their traducers with cold contempt and chilly defiance.

    So, Russia makes no fuss over Belarus’s fealty to it.  But over its dead body would Ukraine look West.

    But the West too has demonized Belarus to no end  as Russia’s puppy, flashing Belarus’s often fiddled votes; and Alexander Lukashenko, its gangling President, as notorious proof of bad company with Russia.

    On Ukraine and Belarus, therefore, the West and Russia only manifest visceral preferences, not any logical differences.  All are of the same Euro tribe.  But the visceral differences stem from differing ideologies.

    Still, Russia has been more gung-ho to prevent Ukraine from exercising its sovereign rights of association; than the West has frowned at Belarus’s relations with Russia.

    Indeed in 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, a peninsula part of Ukraine, though peopled mostly by ethnic Russians.  For that, Russia stands condemned.

    That invasion and annexation could well justify the West chaffing at another encore by Russia the Bully, salivating to pounce on Ukraine yet again — not unlike the Achebe coward that becomes hungry for a fight, each time he meets an unfortunate fellow he can maul.

    So, no tears for Russia — for whatever Western response to its current manoeuvre in Ukraine.  But that hardly banishes a fair x-ray of the West’s tactics — and for that matter, the Russian counter.

    That returns the discourse to the original poser: news or fib?  On this score, neither side is an angel.  To push its case, fair is foul and foul is fair to both sides.

    In reporting Russia’s latest Ukraine stratagem, Western channels present no news.  All they rain down is rogue Russia guilty as charged.  On the double, it should be marched to the guillotine! That could well have happened — had the West had the means!

    But Russia too is no saint.  It may have been hopelessly out-gunned in the global media war, as it had hoped to crush and squelch Ukraine.  It has practically encircled its neighbour by formidable troops and fearsome arms.  It also projects raw, if rogue power, by its provocative nuclear war game with Belarus.

    Yet, in its local media — ironically as reported by these same western media — Russia is alleged to have thoroughly slanted the report, presenting itself as an innocent victim of media bullying and international conspiracy.

    Media bullying?  Yes. International conspiracy?  Maybe.  But innocent victim? Never!  A power player that chokes another with mass troops and brutal arms is never innocent.

    Still, the United States and allies have done a good job of putting Russia on the leash. President Biden warns that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is days away, even after an earlier definite date of invasion — Wednesday, February 16 — came and passed, with Russia selling an alleged counter-dummy that it was withdrawing.

    Then, Vice President Kamala Harris went to the Munich Security Conference (MSC) to thunder hail and brimstone should Russia invade Ukraine which again, she insisted, could be days away.

    Too bad for Russia — the optics were not good at all!  With its Western foes in Munich, Germany, rallying the tribe and playing peaceniks, Russian Vladimir Putin and Belarus President Lukashenko were beamed enjoying a live war game, cutting the very contrast as war hawks!

    The near-official rumour?  That Putin stayed way from Munich because he never wanted peace!  You can trust the West to go on an over-drive, in patented media bullying, when they want to impose their preferences as global holy writ.

    All these torrents of warning have sort of frozen Russia, whatever its Ukraine intentions are — can’t go forward; can’t step backward; just frozen in its tracks!

    Still, from these patented rituals come probing queries from the most unexpected of quarters: a critical reporter told a high US Department of State official that US “intelligence” didn’t quite cut it, as proof of Russia’s settled invasion of Ukraine.

    Remember how former US Secretary of State, the late Gen. Colin Powell, quoted “US intelligence”, and told the UN Security Council that Iraq indeed had “weapons of mass destruction” (WMD), to justify the second US Iraqi invasion?  That was 5 February  2003.

    It all turned out a fib that Powell would regard as his illustrious life’s darkest single blot!

    So, when you read, listen to, or watch the next report on Ukraine, just pinch yourself: is it news?  Is it spin?  Or even outright fib?

    That may well gauge how the crusading angels of free speech have under-developed basic news.

     

  • IPOB: home to roost?

    IPOB: home to roost?

    Blundering into anarchy is sweet and giddy.  Clambering back into sanity is more sober and chastening.

    That is the long and short of the IPOB sit-at-home in the South East.

    But even now, no one is taking responsibility, beyond the funny apologia that Nnamdi Kanu — or even his IPOB inner shrine — was or was no party to the original order.

    Some spin!

    But if, as the Bible says, you don’t seek the truth (no matter how ugly or how stupid it makes you look), how do you set yourself free?

    Enyinnaya Abaribe, senator of the Federal Republic, moaned aloud, what the IPOB leader told him, in his DSS suite: that he, Nnamdi Kanu, didn’t know anything about, or ordered anyone to sit at home on Mondays.

    IPOB would later amplify Abaribe: “Comments from Abaribe are true, because we stated it before now that Kanu, through his lawyers, had asked IPOB members and its leadership to stop the Monday sit-at-home order,” it claimed.  ”Those purportedly enforcing the directive have been killing and burning property of Igbo people and they will incur the wrath of IPOB in due course.”

    Sweet alibi, isn’t that?  Wait!  Is that IPOB’s idea of ramming shut the stable doors, after the tragic stallion had galloped free, wreaking free havoc all over the place?

    Compare and contrast this lame apologia to the ringing, 30 July 2021 diktat, from Emma Powerful, the IPOB spokesperson:

    “We the global family of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), ably led by our great leader Mazi Nnamdi Kanu, wish to announce to all Biafra citizens, friends of Biafra and lovers of Biafra freedom and independence,” blared Emma the Triumphant and Powerful, “that IPOB leadership has declared every Monday ‘a ghost Monday’.  This declaration takes effect from Monday, 9 August 2021.  Nobody should attempt to flout this directive, as doing so may come with huge consequences. Anybody flouting this order is taking a grave risk.”

    Still on the original diktat and the Abaribe recant: the language of threat and force rips through both.

    That exposes the IPOB lack of any grand strategy, beyond cheap bluff and bluster in the media.

    That lack of strategy handed rogue elements the (a)moral licence to sack the vulnerable Igbo, eking out daily bread; under the pretext of enforcing the sit-at-home.  That’s the genesis of today’s brewing lament.  No tears from here!

    By the way, of what good, tactical or strategic, is a Monday sit-at-home for a people that glory in their beloved commerce?  Monday, the capital day of trade, wilfully wasted, week in, week out?

    For how long did IPOB hope to enforce its language of force?  Or hope to hold out against the Nigerian state, not at all willing to suffer gladly its costly tantrums?

    If milking mass sympathy from the Igbo that subscribe to the Biafra philosophy was its strength, how long did IPOB hope that loyalty would last, with daily bread vanishing; and same loyalists plunged into economic ruin, if not outright poverty?

    The way IPOB postures in the media, even with its diminishing ace(s), reminds you of the tortoise in the folktales.

    “I’m travelling”, he declared.

    “When are you returning,” he was asked.

    “When I’m thoroughly disgraced,” he deadpanned.

    A struggle, no matter how justified, is almost doomed to failure — and disgrace — if it lacks a sound strategy.  That is the story of IPOB and triumphant sit-at-home, fast turning ash.

    But that could also ring true of Senator Abaribe.  Abaribe was he, the zesty Biafra ideologue, that stood bail for Kanu.  But his protege jumped bail without thinking twice.

    The same Abaribe made sweet propaganda of his “one-dot-nation”, a vicious pun of President Muhammadu Buhari’s dire warning to IPOB, over possible isolation, in its secessionist gambit.

    Ironically, that isolation — of failed tactics, if not of ideology — is what is now putting IPOB on the defensive.  Yet, it would blindly bluff than reappraise its methods.

    Read Also: Nnamdi Kanu, IPOB under fire over Southeast sit-at-home protests

    But back to Abaribe: what are his motives by his exertions?  True belief in Igbo secession?  Glory, on the Igbo political street, to later power him to Abia gubernatorial glory?  Or just the preening Biafran in the Senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria?

    No one can bet which is which.  Yet, the Abaribe multivalence echoes the Igbo political crossroads, in the context of a federal Nigeria.

    IPOB wants Biafra.  Ohanaeze Ndigbo wants a federal Nigeria, consecrated by an Igbo Presidency in 2023.

    Which of the two represents the genuine Igbo yearning?  And how are other Nigerians, with whom Ndigbo must negotiate, supposed to understand and interpret these many voices from the Igbo Babel — and bedlam?

    However the Igbo navigate out of this logjam, playing the card of victim hood wouldn’t cut it.  Here is time for fresh thinking — if that is not an impossibility.

    In truth, the Nigerian debacle is no sole monopoly of any ethnic group.  So, it’s time to face the stark facts and stop playing the ostrich.

    When power changed hands in 2015 and leading Igbo politicians found themselves in novel opposition jungle, they embraced Kanu and his reckless, insane screeches.

    They told themselves the lie that they had suddenly become the sworn enemy of the Fulani — the same Fulani they had shared and savoured central power since 1960.  But that was because the Fulani that became president wasn’t from their preferred party.

    That lie gave Kanu’s cross-ethnic abuse-and-traduce campaign its initial bounce.  Now that Kanu’s methods appear coming a sad cropper, the solution is another lie: Kanu the Immaculate has done nothing wrong.  Spring him, and open sesame, things would be sorted!  Really?

    If it’s any comfort, this time last year, the so-called “owners of the Yoruba” were busy goading Sunday Igboho to his “Yoruba Nation” doom.  Those vicious data tigers stopped only after Igboho had rammed himself into the Cotonou ditch.

    Not IPOB!  Even with Kanu in the can to answer for his alleged crimes, IPOB continues to bluster as if it had another ace, beyond the footloose, tongue-loose Kanu.

    The other day, IPOB jerked awake to oust Nigeria’s national anthem from “Biafra”.  Its New Year’s package also banned “Fulani cow” from Biafraland.  Hip?  Okay.

    But how about Lagos waking up to ban “Igbo spare parts” from Lagos?  Or Kaduna or Borno or Sokoto decreeing “no Igbo spare parts” in their area?  Hip too?  Or welcome yet another din, wail and squeal of “Igbo marginalization”?

    “Fulani cow”.  ”Igbo spare parts”.  What do they even mean — beyond the folly of ethnicizing mutual economic value?  It leads nowhere but avoidable perdition.

    It’s a grand irony — isn’t it? — that those who gripe over eternal “injustice” seem numb to the routine hurts they hurl at others!

    Fixing Nigeria is a function of give-and-take.  After IPOB’s sit-at-home, and the self-ruin it has unleashed on its locale, let the South East agitators turn a new leaf.

  • A voyage around rice

    A voyage around rice

    Even more than petroleum, rice has for decades been the most discussed commodity in the Nigerian news media, and the most talked-about.  Wherever two three Nigerians are gathered, you can be sure that rice is on their minds; that they are comparing notes and exchanging intelligence on where rice of good quality can be obtained with dispatch and at an affordable price.

    The evidence for this large claim is anecdotal, I grant.  But I have a hunch that a longitudinal content analysis of news and features in the print and electronic media, not forgetting the social media, will bear out my hypothesis.

    There should be a surfeit of research support for such a study from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Central Bank of Nigeria and the African Development Bank, all of which have with uncommon commitment concentrated the nation’s mind and resources on the attainment of self-sufficiency in the production of the commodity in the near term and global ranking in the medium term as a major exporter.

    The wonder they have wrought was on spectacular display in Abuja the other day.

    Residents woke up one morning only to behold in the skyline a vast colony of pyramids stretching as far as they could see.  Rice pyramids.  Somewhat squat; nothing like the sleek, tarpaulin-draped pyramids that    rose unpretentiously from the railway shipyard at Kofar Nassarawa,  gravitated majestically toward the skies and could be seen from just about point in the metropolis.

    Fifteen rice pyramids in Abuja by one count, configured from one million sacks of paddy rice trucked from fields across the country and painstakingly stacked one bag at a time to produce a visual delight and excite the appetite all at once.

    As a schoolboy vacationing in Kano in the late fifties and sixties, I used to so spend my idle afternoons watching men carrying groundnut sacks on their backs or on their heads build a large rectangular base more than a storey high and covering an area larger than a soccer pitch, and then proceed therefrom to sculpt the iconic shape that has evoked wonder and mystery down the ages.

    The aspect to which I looked forward the most was the placing of the last groundnut sack at the apex of the pyramid.  Much folklore and ritual surrounded the event.   It was said that only a few men were chosen for the task. The prize was a princely sum of one guinea, or one pound sterling and a shilling.  For comparison, a brand new Raleigh, Rudge or Hercules bicycle sold for about 17 pounds.

    The reward for placing the last sack atop the pyramid also included a bolt of white linen that was for whoever performed the feat to employ as he chose on returning to base.  If he lost his footing and fell to his death, it would serve as his burial shroud.  That, any rate, was the lore.

    Much to my disappointment, I never witnessed that final act.  Weeks before a scheduled consummation, it would be time to return to Zaria, and to school.

    Behind the Abuja pyramids, however, there was no tradition of any kind. The situation allowed for none; hunger was ravaging the land. On the lips of folks in the bustling cities and townships and the hardscrabble, countryside, the insistent question is:  How soon can my family sit down to a meal of rice?

    But a government committed to changing the national conversation and to inaugurating a paradigm of         food self-sufficiency must take the longer view.  It must memorialize for posterity the key moments in this paradigm shift, if only as an answer to those who would deny that there was ever such a breakthrough.

    The construction of the rice pyramids Abuja marked such a moment.

    The conversation on rice, it needs to be remembered, goes back to the time of President Shehu Shagari. The appetite for rice of the imported variety which Nigerians had developed in the oil-boom years continued to grow long after the boom had turned into gloom and long after that prodigal government had dissipated the nation’s massive foreign reserve.

    Rice became, first, a scarce commodity, and then a hard currency in itself.   A smugglers’ market in the commodity flourished but most homes could not afford it.  Shagari responded by setting up a Presidential Task Force on the Importation of Rice, and named one of his most powerful cabinet ministers, Umaru Dikko, as chair and chief executive.

    Dikko was warming up when the military struck.

    The balance-of-payments problems of the Exchequer worsened, leading to tighter import controls even for basic necessities. Officially, rice importation was banned, but smugglers kept the traffic thriving through the port of Cotonou in neighbouring Benin Republic.

    Military president Ibrahim Babangida’s structural adjust programme (SAP) further tightened import controls. But the regime’s attention shifted from rice to wheat, the importation of which they said was gulping an unwholesome chunk of the nation’s lean foreign reserves.  They branded wheat bread an acquired taste that had no place in Nigeria’s culinary history, and a degenerate one of that matter, sustained by an unpatriotic elite.

    Degenerate or not, the taste had become so entrenched that it could no longer be curbed, much less stamped out.  So, the regime decided that the unpatriotic elite, aforementioned, could continue to have their bread so long as it was baked from locally-grown wheat.  That was how the National Accelerated Wheat Production Programme came into being, under which every parcel of land, from the desiccated Sahel to the mangrove swamps of the delta, claimed to be specially suited for growing wheat.

    Federal funding was lavish, as was publicity.  Kano soon emerged as the epicentre of wheat production in Nigeria.  Wheat fields stretching as far as the eye could see featured daily in television news.  So promising were the early reports it was projected that Nigeria in another two or three years, would rival, if not supplant the United States, Canada, Argentina, Brazil and Australia in wheat production and exports.

    Season after season, wheat growers in the North announced super-bumper harvests.  The only trouble was that millers could find no wheat to buy to put back on stream the plants that had lain idle since wheat imports were banned.  After the Kaduna State government announced the figures at the end of one season, the millers association offered to buy up the entire crop.

    Their representative, the late and much distinguished public servant and administrator, Ahmed Joda, was told that it had already been sold.

    Well before then, Babangida had stopped launching the wheat harvest.  He too had finally seen through the scam.  Since then, the national the accelerated wheat production programme rarely gets mentioned except as an emblem of a costly misadventure.  Babangida’s subsequent campaign to produce bread from cassava flour never got off the ground.

    Nothing daunted, cassava bread came to be canvassed again as a patriotic, healthy local alternative wheat bread most strenuously by President Goodluck Jonathan, who claimed that no day passed without his having that delicacy and fish pepper-soup.  It was even rumoured at the time that they had in residence at Aso Rock, a cabinet-rank officer with the title of Senior Special Assistant on Cassava Bread and Allied Products to cater to Dr Jonathan’s special needs.

    The project died well before Jonathan left office.  He may yet revive it if, or more likely when, as is widely being speculated, the people in their unwisdom recall him in 2023 to come and finish his presidential mandate that was so brusquely terminated seven years ago.

    And so we are back to the on-going rice campaign.  In Nigeria, whenever they say that something has come to stay, you can be sure it is on the way out.  The rice campaign is different.  Something tells me it will endure.

    But not in bags stacked in pyramids stacked in distant places.  It belongs in the warehouses and in the markets and the stores and the shops and the roadside kiosks and in the pantries and in pots and pans     steaming and sizzling on kitchen stoves.

    It belongs ultimately in the dishes in which it will be served for the nurture of starving consumers.

    Get it there fast, while the massive subsidies last.

  • Toxic leadership

    Toxic leadership

    The toxic petrol imported into the country by a reckless cabal, which has wrecked many private vehicles is a metaphor of how reckless leadership at various levels have wrecked the lives of ordinary Nigerians. In the same manner that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), which we were told is the sole importer of petrol until now, is trading blame over who imported the toxic petrol, it is the same way that elected and selected leaders trade blames over their toxic leadership that have wrecked lives.

    According to the Group Managing Director of NNPC, Mele Kyari, the various mandatory inspections conducted by its agents do not include checking for ethanol. Explaining the tragedy, he said: “as a standard practice of all PMS import to Nigeria, the cargoes were also certified by inspection agent appointed by the Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).” He went on: “It is worthy to note that the usual quality inspection in load port in Belgium and our ports in Nigeria do not include the test for percentage of methanol content.”

    Yet he claimed in the same presentation that “NNPC investigation revealed the presence of methanol  in four of the PMS cargoes imported by our DSDP suppliers, including MRS, Emdeb, IH Energy, Britannia-U Consortium, Oando and also our own company, Duke Oil.” In their reaction to Mr Kyari’s media briefing, MRS said: “Due to the current subsidy regime, NNPC is the sole supplier of all PMS in Nigeria.” It went further: “Consequently, the NNPC through their trading arm, Duke Oil, supplied a cargo of PMS purchased from international trader Litasco and delivered it with their Tanker (MT) Nord Gainer.”

    The above quotes show the underlining contradictions in the explanations of NNPC and its allies in what seems to remain the greatest economic despoliation of this democratic era. When the economic history of this democratic era is written, the tragedy of petrol importation and the racketeering surrounding it would cover several pages. In his statement quoted above, the NNPC claimed that testing the percentage of ethanol is not one of the requirements of the agents at the originating and landing ports. Yet, the action taken by NNPC and the federal government, over the present import, show that petrol with high ethanol is dangerous to our vehicles.

    So, what then do the inspectors test for? Does it mean that there are no established standards of the grade of petrol that should be imported into the country? In essence, if another petrol marketer had not raised the alarm about the toxic petrol, it would have been distributed and sold to Nigerians who would be left on their own, to take care of the damages to their vehicles. Of course the claim that NNPC discovered the toxic petrol contradicts the fact it was not tested for by her agents.

    Having discovered the toxicity of the petrol, there is the dispute about who imported it between the NNPC and its cartel. Meanwhile, until now, the official information was that NNPC was the sole importer of petrol into the country. This column bets that it is also likely that nobody can say with certainty the quantity of petrol being imported, otherwise how come that the quantity of imported petrol according to NNPC statistics keep rising astronomically in the past few years.

    Read Also: Toxic petrol: Firms, NNPC in row as Buhari orders sanctions

    From the revealed tragedy of the past week, it is most likely that the criminal despoliation of our country’s economy in the guise of petrol importation subsidy scam which we thought reached its apogee under former President Goodluck Jonathan’s government may still be climbing the corruption ladder, under President Muhammadu Buhari’s government. Perhaps, the Transparency International’s ranking of Nigeria as progressively more corrupt is not a fluke, as the media handlers of the government have tried to argue, since the latest ranking of our country on the corruption index came out.

    According to Transparency International’s latest ranking released last month, Nigeria dropped five places in the 2021 Corruption Perception Index (CPI). The country scored 24 out of 100 points and is ranked the second most corrupt country in West Africa. Yet, the federal government’s media handlers would argue that President Buhari is adjudged the anti-corruption czar in the African continent. Except perhaps the African Union leaders are humouring Mr President, the report of Transparency International is toxicity on such a lofty claim.

    This column like most Nigerians prays that Nigerians are not being treated to an even more trenchant variant of the monumental fraud visited on the national economy by the petrol import scammers of the Jonathan era. We recall that under that regime, NNPC connived with unscrupulous elements to write fictitious bill of laden of imported petrol cargoes. In some instances, the ships represented as the carrier of such fictitious cargoes had ceased to ply the high seas for many years.

    It was to forestall such economic banditry that the Buhari government claimed to have restricted petrol import licence to NNPC. But with the importation of toxic petrol the past week, it has come to the public knowledge that the so-called restriction of license to NNPC is a ruse. What has happened is that the free for all important licence under Jonathan has been replaced by an oligopoly. This column hopes that the club of cartels is not doing to us what the free for all importers did to Nigerian economy under President Jonathan.

    What baffles this column is how the quantity of imported petrol continues to shoot up, despite the recent double recessions that affected the productive sectors of the economy. Could it be that the leakages under Jonathan’s era has gotten worse, or is it that the national economy has ballooned to soak that alleged huge increase in the litres of petrol imported into the country? It would be a monumental tragedy if the NNPC in the present dispensation is once again leading the nation down that ignominious part.

    This column applauds the president for asking for a probe of the importation of toxic petrol into the country. He should follow up to ensure that those responsible are held accountable. It is strange that so far nobody has been held accountable by the NNPC leadership. Both the president and the leadership of the National Assembly should demand accountability from NNPC, since it claimed to be the sole importer of petrol. It is also in the public interest that the criteria for selecting the importers are transparent and competitive.

    Clearly, at the root of the challenges facing our nation is the toxic leadership of the elected and selected public officials at several levels. Unfortunately, their mediocre performances have become the norm. Let’s hope the promised reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act would expunge the toxicity from the NNPC’s arteries.

  • The Bashir Tofa we never knew

    The Bashir Tofa we never knew

    In formal terms, Bashir Tofa was one of the principal figures in the June 12, 1993, presidential election debacle. As candidate and standard-bearer of the National Republican Convention (NRC), one of the two recognised official political parties, he shared the spotlight with the candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Bashorun MKO Abiola.

    Few outside Kano and the business community knew much about Tofa until he was catapulted to head the NRC ticket by the not-so-hidden hands of the grand manipulator in Aso Rock and his proxies, as an element in their secret agenda. The intelligence at the time was that military president, Ibrahim Babangida would seize on some gaps in Tofa’s résumé to void the election if, as per his calculation, Tofa won. And Tofa would not be in a position to cause a stir.

    Secret agenda or no secret agenda, foil or no foil, Tofa grew quickly into the role of presidential candidate, crisscrossing the country in a spirited campaign. One element of that campaign clings in my memory. It was a television commercial in which a man decked out as an ordained priest  led an energetic crowd whose attires reflected the nation’s ethnic diversity in chanting “Tofa is the answer, Tofa.” Billboards dotting the landscape carried the same message.

    Even more memorable was the televised debate between Tofa and Abiola, staged by the NTA and moderated by its senior programme executive, Dr Biodun Sotumbi. Oil pricing came up, naturally, in the wake of yet another threat to cut a phantom gasoline subsidy. Tofa, it turned out, did not even know the pump price of a gallon of petrol.

    There was always something flighty about him. But his performance was on the whole passable. Among major commentators, only MCK Ajuluchukwu thought Tofa had “won” the debate.

    For Nigerians weary of the bitterness and the stubborn refusal to accept defeat that had been prominent features of Nigerian politics, I suspect that the high point of the debate came at the very end. Abiola and Tofa shook hands and pledged to abide by the result of the election, no matter how it turned.

    This, then, was going to be a different election. The political transition programme, despite its manifest flaws, might yet inaugurate a new political era.

    It was not to be.

    Abiola won outright in 18 states, including Tofa’s home state, Kano. He also won more than one-fourth of the votes cast in all but two or three of the remaining 14 states.

    This was the most decisive victory in Nigeria’s history, in what local and foreign observers ranked among the cleanest they had witnessed anywhere and also, I fear, the fairest and freest my generation will ever know.

    The National Electoral Commission had named a chief returning officer, a signal that it was           set to declare a winner.

    In keeping with Tofa’s pledge, his camp had assembled to put the finishing touches to a statement conceding defeat when, according to Dr Doyin Okupe, NRC’s national publicity secretary, Tofa’s cell phone rang. Tofa responded in Hausa to the call, which he said was from “the Villa,” and then retreated to a private room where he and the caller continued their conversation, in Hausa.

    Emerging some 30 minutes later, Tofa was a changed man, Okupe told me in an interview for my book, Diary of a Debacle.  Gone from his countenance was any trace of a willingness to concede, or even compromise. In its place, defiance, and grim determination.

    The concession was never made. Instead, calls for voiding the poll, for reasons ranging from the infantile to the spurious, poured forth from the NRC camp.

    Babangida gladly obliged.

    Abiola’s camp, propelled by the umbrella organisation NADECO, mounted a campaign of protest and resistance that shook Nigeria to its fragile roots.

    Tofa slunk into the obscurity from which he had been plucked. Never has a principal actor in an epic drama faded so quickly from the scene, unremarked and barely remembered.

    Sometime in 1997, Tofa’s handlers inveigled or bribed some rogue elements in the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations into inviting him to address that prestigious bastion of America’s foreign policy establishment.

    Compounding his fecklessness with mendacity, Tofa declared with a straight face that he, not Abiola, had won the election – a claim Tofa had never made at home — and that he had accepted the annulment in the national interest.

    Year after year, as those who hold that governance should be based on the consent of the people rather than the caprice of a cabal celebrated the June 12 anniversary, Tofa kept denouncing the occasion.

    He was at it again in 2013, on the 20th anniversary of the historic poll.

    The brutal and thieving dictator, Sani Abacha, of frightful memory, had called the election a “watershed.” In a shameless and self-serving retreat with few parallels here or anywhere, the annuller himself, General Babangida, had called the election “the best” in Nigeria’s history and claimed the credit for organising it.

    Fifteen years after the election, its chief umpire, Humphrey Nwosu, freed finally from the oath  of silence the annullers had sworn him to, published the official results.  Abiola had won, in the manner the election returns awaiting official certification had indicated.

    As if to secure his place in the hall of infamy even as other authors and enablers of the annulment were seeking desperately to extricate themselves from that gallery, Tofa declared, on its 20th anniversary that “June 12” was dead, that its celebration “a fiction.”

    “I am not one of those people that celebrate fiction that is the more reason why I don’t like to be talking again on June 12 presidential election,” he told journalists in Kano.

    “Only those who don’t have anything to offer to this country to move forward can still be talking about June 12 presidential elections.

    “If you have learnt any lesson out of it, well; if you have not, keep quiet, let this country make progress. But for one to still be talking about something that occurred 20 years ago, is colossal waste of time.”

    This is the quality of mind of a man whom the manipulators of the transition program judged fit to be president, the man who had a statistical chance of being elected to that office but chose to connive in the annulment of the election.

    Yet, when he died on January 3, aged 74, unless you belonged in the attentive audience, you would have been led to believe that Tofa was “a patriot to the core,” the quintessence of statesmanship, and a democrat of the deepest hue.

    President Muhammadu Buhari eulogized him as “a true nationalist that would be difficult to replace” and for good measure dispatched a delegation to Kano with a message of condolence to            State Governor Abdullahi Ganduje.  Yobe State Governor Mai Mala Buni lamented that Tofa departed when Nigeria sorely needed his wise counsel.

    And so on and so forth.

    But their Tofa is the Tofa we never knew.

    As I stated earlier, there was always more than a touch of flightiness to the Tofa persona.  That flightiness was on full display on June 12, 1993, as he traipsed from one voting booth to another in his Kano constituency in vain hope of casting his ballot. His name was not on any of the books.

    Apparently, the man who would be President had not even bothered to register to vote.

    History will remember him all right, but mainly as a contemptible footnote to “June 12.”

     

  • Electoral Act for Nigeria

    Electoral Act for Nigeria

    The tango between the governors and legislators over the proposed amendment to the Electoral Act is a crying shame. Strangely, amendments that should serve the best interest of our country have been reduced to a power tussle between the legislators and the governors over what each group stands to gain in the immediate as if the dramatis personae will remain governors and legislators forever.

    While all are agreed that the Electoral Act needs to be amended in the interest of our democracy, the governors and the legislators are locked in a supremacy battle over how candidates will emerge in the primaries, and if care is not taken, President Muhammadu Buhari, may further dent his legacy by refusing to assent to the bill sent for the umpteenth time.

    While the legislators are substantially asking for use of popular democratic process in the party primary elections, some governors are pushing for a remote control process to ensure that only their preferred candidates emerge. The legislators are of course afraid that unless popular votes decide, such governors can in their private chambers, draw up the list of the candidates, and impose same on the parties.

    While ‘the consensus option’ which some governors prefer may result in party cohesion in some states, it may wreak havoc in some others. Of course, it will be unrealistic to contend that there are no powerful influencers in any political association who could influence consensus amongst the party faithful. As the chief executive in a prebendal political environment such as ours, a governor is such a party influencer, and could with deft manoeuvres get his way during nomination of party candidates.

    But that is where it should end – peddling influence, which is legitimate in politics. It should not extend to holding the entire electoral process to ransom just to get an opportunity to play the king in one or two election cycles when there will be many more election cycles after such governor has ceased to be the party influencer. In case the governors need to be reminded that some of those in the National Assembly members mortally afraid of the governors now were once governors, and so it will be for those governors sooner than later.

    So, if by next year that majority of the serving governors would become ex-governors, and would rely on a fair electoral process to win elections, does it not make sense to have a more enduring electoral law that governs party primary elections? Even if such governors don’t wish to contest for another office after their present one, would it not be better to enact a law that is more democratic and which will enhance enduring democratic process?

    Even more shameful is that some of the troublesome governors are presumably well-educated, and are the first to refer to the United States of America and Britain as bastions of democracy. Yet, they fail to connect the endurance and resilience of those democracies to the altruistic disposition of the founding fathers and present practitioners. So, for our democracy to also endure and be resilient, those governors should be disposed to allow laws that will enhance the democratic process.

    Unfortunately for the country, the legislators are no better than the governors in pursuing selfish agendas in their legislative duties. As such, no one can say with certainty what is driving the legislators each material time. The tango over the Electoral Bill is stymied in unnecessary controversy because some governors claim the legislators are merely pursuing personal agendas, in their legislative duties. In accepting the consensus option, the legislators are reported to have inserted two controversial clauses, which may again stall the re-passed Electoral Bill, from the president’s assent.

    The first controversy as reported in the media is that all contestants in a party primary election must sign a written agreement that they consent to the adoption of a consensus option. That is clearly unrealistic, since there is hardly any time all participants in an electoral process will all agree. If they wanted a fairer deal considering the domineering influence of the governors, they could opt for the approval of the majority of either the party’s state executive officials, or other party organ clearly defined.

    The other clause that all political appointees who want to contest must first resign their position is again unreasonable, considering that many participants in the primaries would need to go back to their work if they fail in their attempt. If the law demands that they resign before they participate, then desperation would become the order of the day. Also significantly, it is unfair to ask political appointees to resign while the elected contestants don’t resign at that stage.

    Why the legislators inserted the two controversial clauses is strange. Perhaps, there is more to this than meets the eyes, as the saying goes, in the unnecessary tango over a new Electoral Act that Nigeria needs to make the elections freer and fairer. As some commentators have said, perhaps, there are some legislators who are surreptitiously working to ensure that the 2023 general election is organised under the present Electoral Act, with all the flaws.

    If the governors care for our country more than they care for their immediate gains, they would not oppose the Electoral Bill sent to the president for assent. Even with the two disputed clauses, governors who have been fair to the majority of the party faithful will still influence the primaries in favour of their preferred candidates, whether through direct or indirect primaries. Those of them who are mortally afraid of the new Electoral Act, may be those who have alienated their party faithful, so much so that they are hated by the majority.

    If the governors insist on having it their way again, and want the president to bear the blame for the non-passage of a new Electoral Act for the country, the president should ignore them and go ahead to sign the bill. As I have advised the president on this page previously, when the history of this era is written, none of those around him will be mentioned. Neither the federal attorney general, Abubakar Malami, SAN, nor the members of the governors forum, led by the outgoing governor of Ekiti State, Dr Kayode Fayemi, would answer the charge for derailing the needed amendment to the Electoral Act.

    Hopefully, the civil society will continue to pile pressure on President Muhammadu Buhari, to see through the maze of intrigues, masquerading as national interests, and sign the Electoral Bill, so that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) would get down to the business of preparing for the 2023 general elections. As the saying goes, a stich in time saves nine.

  • Subsidy? Not a laughing matter

    Subsidy? Not a laughing matter

    Merely by the ululations and the backslappings that have greeted the ‘suspension’ of the removal of the controversial fuel subsidy, one would be forgiven to think that the brouhaha has finally been laid to rest. Thanks to the mother-of-all-strikes threatened by labour cheered on by the hordes of emergency ‘experts’ who have done little else that trade in the familiar fixations, another great opportunity to fully and exhaustively interrogate the options that the country faced such that it could emerge a win-win for all may have unfortunately again been missed.

    In a clime where populism thrives, I perfectly understand the familiar labelling of contrarian viewpoints as being somewhat ‘treasonable’.  It does not help when those who ordinarily should know would conveniently frame issues around clichés, the run-of-the mill polar continuums of ‘we versus them’ or ‘masses versus the government’ while issues are conveniently stripped of context in its broadest sense for better appreciation of the governance issues involved. The refrain -by now familiar – it is the government’s mess and so it must find the money to clear the mess!

    So much for the problem-solving-savvy activists of our time, that mess, it turns out, will cost, not the obtuse government, but you and me – the ordinary tax paying folks – a whopping N3 trillion in the current year! Did I hear someone suggest that the government go ahead to print new notes to cover the difference? And that from a government that is already borrowed to a hilt? That’s how banal sometimes things can get!

    So much for a reprieve – a case of an uneasy peace of the graveyard; the removal now off, is supposed to deserve celebration, never mind that the embedded folly of a nation that would rather cut its nose to spite its face would soon be revealed in the course of time. Imagine the same puritan activists to whom borrowing is also an anathema now chanting the hallelujah chorus since apparently the devil of subsidy has been put to shame!

    Sorry to disillusion them; this devil is going nowhere. In fact, it is not about to be exorcized. Make all the right noises about the poor choices of the past; add to it the sermon on the mount on the subject of the road not taken and with it, anecdotes on the delinquency – or if you like – the criminal predilection of the political elite; it does nothing to alter the cold reality of the mess we are in!

    Like they say, when you are in a hole; you quit digging! Some Nigerians, it would appear, not only insist that we continue digging, but pray that with some tough luck we might somehow drill our ways out! Part of that is living in the denial that we are not down and out yet; and that should the inevitable happen, the world will somehow show understanding until things calm down. And now that the nation is already on the election mode, everything else – save politics – should also be pause mode!  Most regrettable.

    Too bad that the rest of the world have chosen to see the tell-tale signs of a metastasizing malignancy hence their unwillingness to entreat a financially delinquent nation to a fancy profligacy course of petrol subsidy after ratcheting up a staggering public debt of N38 trillion ($92.626bn). Ask the Chinese who have suddenly grown cold to our insatiable appetite for loans. If in doubt, call Rotimi Amaechi, the administration’s point-man in everything Chinese for corroboration; Nigeria, it is increasingly apparent, is fast becoming a creditor’s nightmare! Now, let’s not talk about our familiar sparring partners – the Breton Woods Institutions and their satanic tales. Their concerns, although of a different kind, boils down to the same point: our country is on the verge of bankruptcy.

    Funny how some people still pretend otherwise. Some compare us with Saudi Arabia, a country that could afford the luxury of a stupendous life of luxury without the daily grind of work. Imagine the incongruity of comparing a country of 210 million people with foreign reserve of $35 billion with another of some 35 million people with a $501.8 billion in foreign reserves. Truth is Nigeria is actually in good company with the other oil-producing basket case country of Venezuela!

    Eighteen months, we are told will soon be here (really) – and with it the Eldorado. By this they mean the arrival of the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Refinery without as much a thought to how that transition to the liberal regime will take place.  In any case, would it matter, if between now and then, some N4.5 trillion gets blown away on the subsidy? Do we have the funds? Where will it come from?

    I wish the answer is that straightforward. A respected friend and colleague, who I prefer not to name, holds strongly to the view that the current conundrum actually serves this particular government right! Moreover, that no single administration exists to solve all problems.

    He’s probably right – although in a different kind of way. The first count would be on the administration’s rather cynical reading of the subsidy economics and which underlay its initial public posturing, and more crucially, its failure to wash its hands off fuel trade shortly after taking office!

    Isn’t it ironic that the same government which is the number one problem of the sector is now being sought after to help clear the mess it created – a nigh impossibility? Surely, the problem did not start yesterday. It started when the power drunk federal government took the first refinery built by Shell under its wings and thereafter rolled out other decrees – the most notable of which is the Petroleum Equalisation Fund Decree – and with it the gross distortions from which the nation has not been able to escape.

    See why fundamental changes have become nigh impossible? The states of the refineries are at best a symptom of a more organic ailment. Those who had the money and technology apparently knew better than to help Nigeria out. It didn’t happen under Babangida; Not under Sani Abacha when things actually hit the nadir. Obasanjo is today better remembered as the leader who made the tough call of selling two of the refineries to a consortium led by Dangote which sadly Yar’Adua reversed. Today, many with the benefit of hindsight, believe it was the best course to take. With Goodluck Jonathan came the prospect of the refineries being handed over to their original builders but even that soon fell apart before it could come to fruition. To those who had expected things to be different under President Buhari, it has been a tragic lesson in wishful thinking. Of course, it would take more than the clichés or even the measured sound-bites of a Mai Gaskiya to get those contraptions back into action! The current TAM, like those before it, is money down the drain!

    Expect nothing to change anytime soon or even in the future -until that time when government decides it’s time to let go of the refineries. A return to status quo ante, as against stale and utterly unhelpful effusions by labour and their allies, may not necessary be the perfect route to the Eldorado we so desire; it seems in the current circumstances, a path informed by wisdom. With good bargain strategy in place, we might just be able to hive off a huge chunk of the N3 trillion subsidy-gate in a public scrap auction.

     

  • Futility — and stupidity — of military rule

    Futility — and stupidity — of military rule

    The Burkinabe junta, which grabbed power on January 20, may perhaps want to submit their reasons for peer review, in a Logic 101 class.

    They claimed they overthrew President Roch Marc Kabore for security failures, hallmarked by Islamist attacks.  But pray, are defence and security not the military’s job under the Burkina Faso constitution?

    If you fail at a task, do you sack your supervisor and take over his job?  If you did, how does yesterday’s failure turn tomorrow’s success, simply because he harbours the delusion of becoming own supervisor?

    That’s its long and short: the bragging illogic of military rule!

    Now, from the Burkinabe Army to specific personalities: how would coup leader, Lt-Col. Paul-Henri Damiba fare, even in the most rotten of ensembles?

    Damiba it was that poor President Kabore hand-picked to improve security in the capital Ouagadougou and environs.   But it was Damiba too that turned junta Brutus; and drove in the coup stab.  Et tu Damiba? — to mimic Julius Caesar’s tragic screech.

    But then, that’s the double — no, multiple — jeopardy of military rule.  No reason.  No moral.  Just raw, opportunistic and cowardly force!  Blasted are folks under the military jackboot!

    And yet folks rejoiced and trooped out in the streets — in Burkina Faso, in Mali, in Guinea? And nearly so in Guinea Bissau, where yet another coup attempt was scuppered?

    And so did they here in Nigeria, during those terrible days of innocence!  So did they in The Gambia.  So did they in this same Burkina Faso, with the coming of Thomas Sankara.  So did they in Ghana, with the double coming of JJ Rawlings, now of blessed memory.

    But apart from Ghana — where Rawlings was a clear hero, even if the verdict on him was by no means unanimous — which country in West Africa has military rule made a net-developmental difference?

    In Burkina Faso, where collaborator Blaise Compaore killed the paladin Thomas Sankara; and turned his otherwise golden revolution into something more worthless than tinsel, only for a popular revolt to chase out Compaore after 27 years (1987-2014), to be replaced by the elected but now deposed Kabore?

    The Gambia, where the comic Yahya Jammeh in 1994 overthrew the long-ruling President Dawda Jawara (since independence in 1965)?

    But “His Excellency, Sheikh Prof. Alhaji Dr. Yahya AJJ Jammeh Babili Mansa” too would turn the tiny, groundnut-shaped country into a political theatre of the absurd, for the next 22 years.  Only the threat of an ECOWAS intervention force forced him to flee, on 21 January 2017, after losing an election but tried to dig in.

    Or Togo?  In 1967, Gnassingbe Eyadema took over the Togo state.  But when he died, still in power in 2005, he handed over a personal estate, with which his children could do and undo!

    At a time, one son, Faure, was president.  Another son, Kpacha, was Defence minister, before the siblings duelled and drifted apart.  That was Togo Eyadema & Sons Unlimited, after their patriarch’s 38-year rule — and it all started with a military power grab.

    Even Nigeria — yes, Nigeria here!  After progressively devaluing from Gen. Yakubu Gowon (and his age of innocence) to Gen. Sani Abacha (and his epoch of starkness), the jackboot power jackals ran selves into a ditch — from which they must, never again, emerge!

    But we all should thank God for small mercies.  IBB, the most wayward of them all, gifted us the June 12 debacle.

    To sate own power greed, he buried the institution that threw him up — good riddance! He probably was on his way to playing “Eyadema” with Nigeria: personalizing the government; replacing epochal state dates with personal anniversaries.

    No less thanks too to Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo, the most pretentious of them all.  He weeded out the so-called “IBB boys” — the notorious military power vermin.

    Sure, that might have been coterminous with Obasanjo’s own regime security, as elected if imperial president.  Still, he offered the military that made him rare professional redemption.  By that, Nigeria’s military is regaining its soul — and honour.

    Beyond raw power grab and sweet-nothing coup speeches, the Khaki boys have learned there is no substitute for political legitimacy.

    Which was why, it would appear, even IBB that caused so much moral and political havoc, attempted a come-back as elected president — until he was shooed off and mercilessly shouted down.

    Still, both Obasanjo and Muhammadu Buhari, former junta heads that made it back as elected presidents, now savour laying claim to the vote — crude or clean.

    It’s one happy epiphany: from always furtively watching your back to see if another power looney was taking a potshot at you, to crowing to have the people’s vote!

    That’s the beauty of democracy.  If you bump others off by abusing licit arms that the state put in your hands, why shouldn’t others bump you off in that same manner?  It’s the dog-eat-dog illogic of jackboot rule!

    If the peoples of Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea allow selves to be scammed into that hell hole, that’s their headache.  But we must treat military power grabbers everywhere as the lepers and pariahs that they are.

    That’s why both the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU) must maintain tight pressure on these power leeches.

    But back here. Both Obasanjo and Buhari seem to savour anew the quiet might of democracy against the loud impotence of military rule.

    Obasanjo joyfully junked his “General” rank for a common “Chief”, hitherto fit only for “bloody  civilians” in the heady days of military rule.  As elected president, he gloried as reformer-in-chief; and founder-father of modern and democratic Nigeria, in Obasanjo-esque conceit!

    Gen. Buhari, as junta chief, shot down the Lagos Metroline.  But as elected president, he is bequeathing the Lagos-Ibadan corridor (en route to Kano), with Nigeria’s most modern rail thus far.  He has also inspired Lagos to firm up its rail plans.

    From a military era notorious for reckless food importation, President Buhari is championing food security, under the war cry of “grow what you eat and eat what you grow”.  In seven short years, and despite a crippling economic season, Nigeria has shot up as Africa’s No. 1 rice producer.

    Buhari, since 1999, is the first to keep faith with his term limit, unlike Obasanjo that attempted a term extension.  Yet, as junta chief, Buhari’s regime didn’t even have a political transition programme! Democratic deepening? Welcome signs!

    Rogue politicians, busting term limits, are one of the drivers of resurgent military rule in West Africa.

    But the antidote to rogue politicking can never be blundering again into military rule.  Civil society must develop a powerful phalanx: strong enough to muscle sit-tight politicians; robust enough to keep out soldiers of fortune hungry for power.

  • Restorative justice

    Restorative justice

    Restorative Justice Practice is slowly gaining ground in Lagos State as an integral part of the criminal justice system and this column urges other states in the country to quickly follow the example. Restorative justice can be described as an opportunity for the victim of a crime to meet with the offender who has pleaded guilty to the crime and is willing to offer physical and emotional restitution to the victim and others affected by his/her action.

    This new approach will put the real victim in the driver’s seat, unlike the traditional criminal justice system wherein the state is treated as the victim and receives compensation where applicable, or sends the offender to prison as punishment. So, under the traditional criminal justice system, the real victim feels alienated from the processes since even when the offender admits to have the subject of crime in his custody, the magistrate or judge would order that the stolen item be returned to the state.

    A training programme in restorative justice shows that it approximates closest to justice in the eyes of the ordinary man, and arguably to what was in practice in the pre-colonial criminal justice system. As part of the introductory process of restorative justice in Lagos State, trainings are going on, and this writer with other certified mediators, was privileged to undergo a rigorous one-week training organised by JSPL Consulting and the Rule of Law and Anti-Corruption (RoLAC) Programme of the British Council, sponsorship by the European Union.

    Under the guide of very experienced faculty of mediators and arbitrators, led by Akeem Olajide Bello PhD, an associate professor at University of Lagos, Mrs Adeyinka Aroyewun, Director Lagos Multi-Door Court (LMDC), Mrs Achare Cole Deputy Director LMDC, and Mrs Sola Adegbonmire, chartered arbitrator, the mediators were taken through a rigorous training on the philosophical framework and fundamental concepts of restorative justice; interrelationship between the Lagos Criminal Justice System and restorative justice principles; roles, interests and rights of various actors in the restorative justice process; overview of the practice direction on restorative justice and procedural steps on arraignment at a magistrate court, and restorative justice programmes and process.

    In the introductory remarks, Howard Zehr, described as the grandfather of restorative justice, defined restorative justice as “a process to involve, to the extent possible, those who have a stake in a specific offence to collectively identify and address harms, needs and obligations in order to heal and put things as right as possible.” Robert B. Cormier on his part defined restorative justice as “an approach to justice that focuses on repairing the harm caused by crime while holding the offender responsible for his or her actions, by providing an opportunity for the parties directly affected by crime – victims(s), offender and community – to identify and address their needs in the aftermath of a crime, and seek a resolution that affords healing, reparation and reintegration, and prevent future harm.”

    As I have argued on other occasions on this page, the current criminal justice system has substantially failed to give justice to the state, the victim and the accused. The best example as it affects the common man is the tragedy of the so-called awaiting trial men which in some states constitute more than 70% of men and women languishing in jail, which has been rechristened correctional service centres. At the upper echelon of the society, is the fact that while billions of dollars of the Nigerian resources have been stolen over the years, less than 1% of the offenders are in jail.

    So, every state should be interested in this innovative form of criminal justice practice which no doubt will ameliorate the debilitating practice on offer presently. Of course, it must be noted that restorative justice may not deal with serious crimes like murder, rape, armed robbery and the like, but it will help clear the clog of small crimes which also impact the society, and that will help the magistrates and judges concentrate on the big criminal cases. After all, every victim of a crime, regardless of the size will feel alienated and disconsolate when the system fails to give him/her what approximates to justice, for the harm done to him/her.

    For while a few persons whose item has been stolen by a thief may be assuaged if the offender goes to jail, the majority will rather ask for restitution and perhaps an apology as recompense. Specifically, if a person whose goat has been stolen gets back his goat or the cost of another goat, he will feel better than that the culprit is serving a jail term. Also, the society which is scandalised by such a development would prefer to see the culprit engage in community work that will directly impact them.

    From the training manual, we see that while in retributive justice the offender accountability is taking punishment, in restorative justice, the offender accountability is understanding impact of crime and helping decide how to make things right. Again, while under retributive justice the system is concerned with purely legal terms, devoid of moral, social, economic and political dimensions, under restorative system, the offence is examined in the whole context of moral, economic and political contexts. Furthermore, while retributive justice does not encourage repentance and forgiveness, restorative justice encourages such possibility.

    The listed benefits of restorative justice for the victim include that he has opportunity to ask questions about the offender, tell the offender how he feels about his/her actions and what the impact of the crime has been, have his/her input on how to make amends, and understand the motivation for the crime. On the part of the offender, he has opportunity to take responsibility for the offence, have a voice to tell his/her story, hear first-hand the impact of the crime on the victim and community, have an opportunity to apologise to the victim and to put things right by carrying out the agreed actions.

    The training manual also showed that the Criminal Law of Lagos State 2011 (CLLS) make provisions for using restorative justice processes and outcomes in resolving criminal matters. Furthermore, that Administration of Criminal Justice Repeal and Re-enactment Law 2011 (as amended) (ACJL) make some provisions for restorative justice outcomes. Section 3(1) of the CLLS provides that rehabilitation and restoration is one of the guiding principles that should guide the interpretation and application of the law or any regulations creating offences. The other disposition measures listed in section 15(2) are compensation, restitution, community service orders, probation, curfew orders, binding over orders, rehabilitation and correctional orders, victim-offender mediation and other restorative justice measures.

    There is no doubt that Restorative Justice Practice will bring a new dimension to criminal justice systems, and I urge other states to key into the programme.

  • Subsidy removal or political suicide?

    Subsidy removal or political suicide?

    Just as well, the Federal Government just withdrew its notice to exit petroleum subsidy.  For the ruling order, that would have been a primer in wilful political suicide, on an election eve.  The opposition would have grabbed that rare plum with divine thanks!

    Yet, since that announcement, it’s been lamentations galore: how subsidy would stall the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).

    The PIA, goes the jeremiad — drip! drip! — has no provisions for subsidy, as everything is “liberalized”.  True.

    But isn’t this some deja vu of some sort?  Have we not witnessed all of this before?

    In September 2004, President Olusegun Obasanjo blundered into the “government magic” (apologies to Fela) of liberalizing petroleum downstream by importation.

    In 2022, can President Muhammadu Buhari blunder out of it, flashing the PIA as the new magic come to eliminate those other factors (in basic economics-speak) that remain unequal 17 years after?

    The Obasanjo government didn’t get local refineries ready for downstream deregulation — beyond the media razzmatazz of ramming “market forces” on the browbeaten and the downtrodden.

    With the preening “reforms” of that era also came a wish — rich and fanciful — that “deregulation” would self-correct; and market forces would send fuel pump prices crashing.  Some wish!

    In fairness though, “deregulation” was only the “reform” buzz.  Blind panic, sold as policy bravery, forced Obasanjo’s hands: to flee from NNPC’s four refineries.

    Turn-around maintenance (TAM) and allied repairs had gulped US$ 485.4 million between 1999 and 2003, according to “Deregulation of the oil and gas industry in Nigeria”, a CBN seminar paper delivered by Funsho Kupolokun, then NNPC group managing director.

    Yet, the refineries delivered not gushing fuel pumps; but bulging pockets, with illicit cash, for party hacks and allied hustlers!  ”No more!” bayed that government — and rightly so.

    But it’s one thing to flee from a bad path.  It’s another to work hard at correcting the flaws in-there to redeem that path.

    Doing one but shunning the other has been the bane of this peculiar “deregulation” these past 17 years.  Until you ensure adequate local refining, not even a thousand PIAs can correct the deregulation-stalling, skewed conditions.

    The good news though is that more than any time since 1999, the objective conditions to drive the PIA, and logically liberalize petroleum downstream (aside from upstream and midstream) appear near.

    By the third quarter of this year, the US$ 19.6 billion, 650, 000-barrels-a-day Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals complex would start producing petrol, diesel and allied auto/aero fuels.   The plant is already producing fertilizer.

    By close to year-end, the four NNPC refineries (combined refining capacity: 445, 000 barrels a day) too are projected to chip in some products, but not at full capacity.  A few private modular refineries too are expected to come on stream.

    Why all of these won’t, open sesame, banish fuel importation, they should progressively crash the volume of forex spent on such imports, till domestic refiners can satisfy local consumption and thereafter essay exports.

    The Dangote complex, by the way, is technically sited “abroad” (in an export processing zone).  So, from Day 1, it has its eye on the export market, aside from its commitment to Nigeria’s local consumption.

    Read Also: Fuel subsidy sandstorm

    All these developments make the 18-month subsidy regime stretch not unreasonable, though the now-or-never PIA puritans would screech and scream to the contrary.

    This lobby is more impressed by cold, howling stats, baying economic “waste and drain”; than the relief such numbers might be offering the real masses with flesh and blood — long-suffering folks that hold the short end of wrong-headed policies.

    Indeed, the government’s decision to continue with subsidy has been framed in that lobby’s image: barking a near-fatal assault on the PIA, rather than seeing a reasonable wind-down period, which may well grant the PIA a safer birth and eventual healthier life.

    First, taking headlines from The Nation (by no means the most alarming) is a quiet rue: “Subsidy extension stalls Petroleum Industry Act” (January 26).

    That seems a quiet prompt at a vicious blame game: who did it?  Why?  And how Nigerian governments are simply incapable of keeping to the letter and spirit of own laws — the customary media hair-splitting that seldom leads to resolving any challenge beyond thunderous blame and zealous finger-pointing.

    Then, the next day, came the scare tactics: “Government to fund subsidy with N3 trillion in one year” (The Nation, January 27).  Whaaaaaat! — you could almost hear the puritans growl, patriotic keepers of the cold and sacred public books!

    To be sure, the fuel subsidy cost is humongous, particularly when you factor in the more destructive cost of alleged corruption.  It’s alleged, for instance, that the claimed daily consumption of petrol (55.9 million litres by August 2021) was padded.

    Still, why is fuel subsidy reported as if it is a high crime against the state; and its beneficiaries as unconscionable bugs, who would rather suck up everything than allow the state to splash such cash on roads, bridges, schools, hospitals and drugs?  Alluring emotive argument!

    But the converse: why should the ordinary folks, victims of a wrong-headed energy policy, be draped as monsters because they enjoy fuel subsidy; but the policy makers, though authors of suspect decisions, are swooping, no-nonsense, corrective angels?

    A blind and unthinking class war?  Come to think of it!  The state — through generous perks — has provisioned policymakers enough cushion against own harsh policies.

    But when those policies bite hard, relief in subsidy, to those that grill in the harsh crucible, suddenly becomes economic sabotage?  An unthinking class war indeed!

    But wherever you stand on the ideological spectrum, Nigerians owe organized Labour a huge debt of gratitude for frontally challenging subsidy removal.  But for Labour’s mobilization to act, it’s doubtful if the government would have eaten crow.

    Still, the Buhari presidency deserves more praise, on ways local refining is panning out, than most would grant it.

    True, on the political front, it’s enlightened self-interest for it not to add the subsidy bomb to its election-year headache.  Only a suicidal government would act otherwise.

    But even on economics qua economics: putting PIA in limbo for 18 months to ensure it works for all — the book keepers in policy suites; and the folks whose blood boil on the economic street — is tribute to how the government’s domestic refining agenda is shaping up.

    Better a PIA delay of 18 months with firmer prospects of local refining, than a 17-year deregulation transit to nowhere which, by the hour, throws the economy into a tailspin, the people into deeper misery, and the clime into mass poverty.