Category: Festus Eriye

On Monday in Uyo, Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, kicked off what is possibly his last push for power after an initial attempt dating back 30 years. At 75, it’s make or break for him as another bid in four years looks implausible.

All things considered, he must have been heartened by some of the optics: a stadium brimming with colorfully-attired party faithful, a carnival in friendly territory to generate the much needed feel good factor. If spectacle was the goal, his host and chairman of the party’s campaign council, Akwa Ibom Governor, Udom Emmanuel, duly delivered.

But for all the gay speechifying, there was a sense of deja vu that hung over the event. Of the party’s 13 governors, five were absent. Nyesom Wike of Rivers, who has been locked in a battle of wills with Atiku and the PDP hierarchy, boycotted along with four colleague governors – Samuel Ortom of Benue, Seyi Makinde of Oyo, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu and Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia.

There was no glossing over the fact that the former Vice President was going into the biggest fight of his political career with a fractured house. Embattled National Chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, referenced this when he told the crowd Nigerians were not interested in their internal fight, but were only waiting for the opposition to ride to their rescue.

Ayu had to say something, but I suspect that as an old political warhorse he understands that PDP’s challenge is in dire straits. In this environment, the advantages of incumbency at state and federal levels cannot be understated. It is one thing to lose a governor, quite a different matter to be deserted by five. A similar development seven years ago was pivotal in truncating PDP’s rule.

What would have been especially troubling for the rank and file is that one of the no-shows was Wike – a figure who has been a bulwark for the former ruling party in its seven-year stint in the power wilderness. When funding dried up, he and a few others stepped into the breach. When others worried about offending an incumbent who had the power to unleash the EFCC and ICPC against them, he was only too glad to tweak the lion’s tail. It is such a bruiser that’s missing from PDP’s corner.

Anyone who understands Nigerian politics knows that whoever will prevail in a presidential election must have control of some or all of the tripod of Rivers, Lagos and Kano States. In 2015, PDP’s defeat was facilitated by its loss of two of these vote-rich territories. History, may be repeating itself as none of these strategic states is currently hopeful hunting ground for Atiku.

The PDP candidate has made a great show of pressing ahead with his campaign without the Gang of Five. It is all too reminiscent of what played out seven years ago when another set of five governors revolted against then President Goodluck Jonathan’s bid. Putting a brave face on what was clearly a calamitous political development, he declared then that the party would be better off without the troublemakers. The opposite was the case.

Indeed, the then opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) which had just eight governors suddenly saw its ranks swollen to 13 in one fell swoop with the coming of Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers, Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano, Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara, Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto and Murtala Nyako of Adamawa. The arrival of Imo’s Rochas Okorocha, leading a rump of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) took the count to 14.

That historic realignment transformed the seeming no-hoper opposition party into a formidable prospect with an impressive nationwide spread. Added to the ranks of 2015’s version of the Gang of Five were heavyweights like Atiku and former Senate President Bukola Saraki, leaving PDP badly wounded and limping into battle.

Back then, the rebels bolted from the party. Today, Wike and company insist they are not leaving. Yet, their not participating in the presidential campaign is just as good as not being in the party at a time when they are desperately needed. As things stand Atiku can only really count on eight governors and faces the very real prospect of protest or tactical voting where those opposed to him rule the roost.

Consider the following scenario also. In 2015, Peter Obi ran as Atiku’s undercard. Today, he’s the former VP’s rival in a zone that was once PDP’s comfort zone. The region is now an unpredictable battleground. Anambra is controlled by APGA, Ebonyi and Imo by APC, and Enugu and Abia by two governors currently abstaining from his campaign. Of course, voting in the presidential poll may not necessarily follow the current power configuration.

Read Also: Wike, allies absent as Atiku campaign kicks-off

Still, in a zone where fear has become a factor, where a sense of regional grievance is driving a backlash against an erstwhile ally that didn’t consider its people good enough for the main opposition party’s ticket, there’s plenty of reason for Atiku to worry.

It is just as awkward in Benue where Ortom finds himself at odds with the chairman who is from the same state. A few days ago he gave Ayu the recipe for resolving the crisis: go on bended knees or resign. None of that will happen. The governor is also feeling the heat with an influential group warning him to back down or face defeat in his quest for a senate seat. Not exactly your picture of everyone pulling in the same direction.

As for Wike, he may not be defecting but the differences between his camp and Atiku’s now seem irreconcilable. Standing shoulder to shoulder with the ex-VP in Uyo were the likes of Celestine Omehia and former Senator Lee Maeba who the Rivers governor has targeted for defying him. His scotched earth tactics in delisting the former as an ex-Rivers governor is indicative that this is a fight to the finish.

At the heart of the PDP dispute is a debacle it created when it casually junked the power rotation principle which has become an article of faith in the polity. Those who oppose Atiku cannot back down with nothing to show for their struggle. They must have something to appease those who want an explanation as to how another Northerner can succeed one who would have served for eight years. For them, nothing but Ayu’s scalp would do.

In the end politicians are not just optimists, they are also pragmatists. They know their party can win, but the smart ones are also planning for life after a loss. So, the

Intra-party battle is about 2023 and beyond.

Wike and company understand that win or lose they have created an army of foes who would be gunning for them in due course. That’s why it’s critical that they control their party after the polls. It is also vital for Atiku to control the reins in the event he loses, if not he and his allies would be swept away permanently by the tsunami of recriminations that’s bound to follow.

Never before has an candidate fought on so many fronts and prevailed. But then, the Turaki Adamawa is an uncommon optimist. That’s the reason he’s been running for the same office for 30 years without giving up.

For the first time in a while, we are seeing the younger segment of our population who are dissatisfied with the state of things, increasingly energised by governance issues. This trend been noticeable in the last couple of years.

At the end of the last continuous voters registration exercise, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) reported 10.49 million new registrants. Eighty four percent of these, at well over eight million people, are 34 years old or younger.

It remains to be seen how many would eventually pick up permanent voters’ card (PVC), which is what really matters. Still, the numbers tell the story of growing interest and desire not just to have their voices heard, but to actually get their hands on the tiller.

For a lot of these young people, their rage is driven by a sense that the older generation has failed them and the entire country. Instead of delivering a prosperous nation when they had numerous opportunities to do so, the leaders only succeeded in producing a country from which many are fleeing as captured by the so-called japa phenomenon.

Suddenly, we started hearing talk suggesting that perhaps our salvation lay in enthroning leaders who can bring youthful energy to the assignment. People above 50 became objects of derision; those older than 60 aspiring to public office were dismissed as ancestors who deserved to be entombed in some museum. On top of tribalism, nepotism and sundry negative isms, we added ageism to our national discussion.

These young people who are angry over lack of opportunities and hope for a better tomorrow, would have us believe that things would change positively if they were at the helm of affairs. But this picture of total exclusion isn’t necessarily correct. Closer examination would show that their demographic is already part of the governing system in the country.

Aside the president, vice president and many governors, the bulk of legislators at federal and state levels, local government chairmen, heads of parastatals are people 50 years old or younger. Still, their respective areas of authority are not exactly shining lights in a nation looking for good examples. If Nigeria is a mess, we should be honest and admit that almost every age bracket has taken turns to stir the pot.

The undue focus on the offices of the president and his deputy, gives the impression that in this federation it is only from those platforms that leaders can make a difference. Nothing is father from the truth. In every other field save politics, our people across all age brackets are excelling around the world. So, there is something we haven’t hit on that’s the problem and it’s not just simply age.

As things stand none of the top four presidential candidates is a spring chicken. Labour Party’s Peter Obi is 61, the New Nigerian Peoples Party’s Rabiu Kwankwaso is 65, the All Progressives Congress’ Bola Tinubu is 70 and the Peoples Democratic Party’s Atiku Abubakar is 75.

The youths have been served a fait accompli; they are not going to get one of their own as president in 2023. So, rather than wasting time and energy frothing at the gill, they should be concerned about the agenda of the contenders for their age group, if truly they are worried about the future.

Read Also: Why Tinubu is the right choice for 2023

For instance, universities have been shut for the better part of a year. How do the candidates plan to end this and ensure it doesn’t recur in the future? What are they going to do about unemployment, about entrepreneurship, about helping young couples just starting families to own homes?

What are their policies that would stop people going on the deadly run through the Sahara Desert and Mediterranean? Why are youths not challenging politicians to present concrete proposals, rather than throwing around empty “I will do this, I will do that” promises?

You would think that these and similar issues would engage them. But we are seeing the direct opposite. The fallout from the recent Nigeria Bar Association (NBA) conference where candidates spoke about their agenda was instructive. For days afterwards what trended on social media was APC Vice Presidential candidate, Kashim Shettima’s dress sense. All the talk was about his choice of shoes, length of his tie and size of his suit. This, supposedly, from people concerned about their tomorrow.

Even when they attempt to discuss the serious issues it soon dissolves into an orgy of insults, with each side trying to outdo the other in obnoxiousness. The ethnic slurs start flying. Soon, it hits you that the younger ones are not better than their forebears in that they have inherited all their hate and prejudices.

Youths, like every other demographic, agree that things are tough. What they would never agree on is what the solutions are, or who their champions should be.

That’s why those who have already donated the youth vote to one candidate or the other are engaged in ignorant generalisation, simply deluded or just eager to believe their own hype. But they are welcome to inhabit the parallel universe they’ve created if it makes them happy. However, a little bit of recent history might help.

Late in 2020 the country convulsed under the #EndSARS protests. It was a youth-driven uprising against police brutality because most victims were young people profiled by the anti-robbery squad as criminals. They were targets of suspicion because they were surrounded by trappings of affluence. Their frustration boiled over in street protests across the nation.

But as the demonstrations went from days to a couple of weeks an interesting dynamic became noticeable. While across the South the protests retained their anti-police brutality flavour, up North they soon began to be seen as an attempt to destroy a key security agency and bring down the government. Soon there were counter protests supporting the police and the administration.

The cynical may argue that these pushback demonstrations were sponsored by pro-government agents. What cannot be denied, however, is that the ferment that grounded Lagos and several other cities was largely absent in the North.

That is why it would be presumptuous to think any party or candidate has the youth vote locked up, or that people in this demographic in different parts of the country would hold the same political positions or back the same candidate going into the next elections.

However, the youth can still make a difference by refocusing the discussion on the things that matter, rather than on inanities like who wore the suit better or regurgitating bile on social media. If they can’t do better than this then we can all throw up our hands and admit all hope is lost.

We are officially off! From today, political parties can start campaigning towards next year’s general election. Like any Nigerian electoral process, it promises to be one chaotic ride all the way to its conclusion.

Given the very high stakes, it’s no surprise that in their bid to secure advantage, the players are already hard at work pressing the usual buttons that divide us. Take ethnicity for example. No point deceiving ourselves. In an diverse country like ours, it’s a factor that always bubbling just below the surface.

It’s the reason why we have concepts like ‘zoning.’ It’s the reason the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), long associated with the idea, blithely junked it to produce former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as its candidate to succeed the All Progressive Congress’ (APC), Muhammadu Buhari – a Northerner who would have spent eight years in office. The calculation is that on account of tribal solidarity he would inherit the incumbent’s captive 12 million vote haul.

People always mouth their wish for the fabled “issue-based” campaigns when, in reality, many voters in Nigeria and elsewhere don’t always cast ballots on the basis of rationality, but raw emotion. Many will vote based on their belief in a candidate’s capacity and ideas; others don’t want to know if you are Albert Einstein. That’s why ethnicity would be big again.

For the first time in a long while candidates from three of the nation’s largest ethnic groups are competing. In 2015, the Southern minority Ijaw President Goodluck Jonathan ran against the Fulani Buhari. Four years later it was two men from the same stock running against each other, making the ethnic question moot. In 2022, however, you have Atiku and Rabiu Kwankwaso from the Northeast and Northwest respectively, APC’s Bola Tinubu from the Southwest and Labour Party’s Peter Obi from the Southeast.

In the reporting thus far, it is evident that the historic rivalry between the two big Southern ethnic groups involved in the presidential race is becoming a powerful undercurrent.

But history tells us that popularity in one’s ethnic base can’t propel you to the presidency. The legendary Chief Obafemi Awolowo religiously polled in excess of 80 percent in Yorubaland but never came to power due to anaemic support elsewhere.

For three election cycles Buhari was the man up north but never became president until he got the Southwest in his corner.

In the same manner it is hard to see how Obi’s popularity in the Southeast takes him anywhere near the presidency unless he can achieve the required breakthrough in the three Northern zones.

But his supporters revel in his underdog status. They and their traducers see things differently. They see possibilities where others see a bunch of dreamers. They see the 2023 election as a kind of David versus Goliath repeat match. Unfortunately, this is Nigeria and not the Valley of Elah where the unheralded shepherd boy slew one giant. Today, Obi is fighting two giants and I’m not betting on the underdog.

That said, whatever happens in the Southeast would have a bearing on the outcome given that historically the PDP had always done well here. Now, there’s the very real possibility that their vote levels may be significantly slashed given the Obi option.

Read Also: Tinubu will win 2023 presidency, fix Nigeria – South West Arewa community

Again, this cycle is different because of temperament. Something interesting is going on in the zone that makes it hard to predict what would happen when people go to cast their votes in the secrecy of the polling booth.

Today in the Southeast it’s a risky venture to speak against Obi’s aspiration. The few politicians who have been dismissive of his chances have paid a stern price as targets of abuse and bullying. Former Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu, is one such figure who chose the wrong time to be analytical.

Unfortunately, just days after he released his rating of the Labour Party candidate, his family ran into the organ harvesting storm in the United Kingdom. There was scant sympathy for him. He was cursed to high heavens, with some suggesting that his travails were caused by his political views!

Many mainstream politicians quickly learnt their lessons and clammed up. They may have been silenced by the militant tendency in the zone, but what they would do at the ballot box remains a dark mystery.

So, the Southeast has become a minefield for would-be forecasters and pollsters who may be in danger of overstating or understating support one way or another.

It’s all too reminiscent of what played out in the 2016 US presidential contest between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Up till Election Day pollsters had the Democrat leading the former president with anywhere between five and ten percentage points.

Trump had politically incorrect positions on everything from abortion to immigration which played badly with the liberal media, but went down well with the more religious and conservative strain of the population. Many were too ashamed to admit their leanings to pollsters. But on D-day they delivered an unexpected verdict. It was a blow to the reputation of the polling industry from which they are yet to recover.

The ethnic factor would also play out in the Southwest where voters would be enthusiastic about backing one of their own. Many are predicting that given the excitement around his candidacy, Tinubu’s vote in the zone could match levels reached by Chief Awolowo.

But that’s where the parallels end. Whereas the old Action Group (AG) and Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) leader never managed to garner enough votes from other zones to win the presidency, the APC candidate’s bid more closely mirrors that of the successful candidate of Southwest extraction, Chief M. K. O. Abiola, who was able to build a North-South pathway to power on June 12, 1993.

It is worth noting that Tinubu’s journey has had a strong northern input. For instance, when certain forces within APC were scheming to foist Senate President Ahmad Lawan on the party, it was 12 Northern governors who turned the tables with their game-changing intervention insisting power must move South. The same group, almost to a man, would go on to back him for the presidential ticket.

Does that mean he would automatically sweep the entire North in Buhari-like fashion? The quick answer is that as long as he retains the backing of the incumbent and that coalition of governors, he remains very competitive against Atiku and with the whip hand in key states across the region.

Conspiracy theorists who want to believe that his support wouldn’t hold firm must admit that the factors that made some PDP governors work against Jonathan in 2015 aren’t present now. The overwhelming consensus within APC is pro power shift. Seven years ago, divisions over this issue arising from Jonathan’s second term bid split the then ruling party down the middle.

You also have to ask yourself what incentives APC governors would have to install an Atiku and become beggars at his table, as against delivering a project in which they are key stakeholders.

As the campaigns begin today, it is safe to say that of the two major contenders, Atiku and the PDP are under greater pressure because their traditional strongholds are under threat as a result of the Obi factor. Wherever his base are they would affect the traditional PDP vote.

Obi, on the other hand, would continue to struggle against the sentiment that says ‘we want to back a candidate who can win, not just cast our votes in protest or to make a statement.’

Four weeks from now, campaigning will officially take off for the 2023 general elections. Given the ugliness that has been exhibited in the shadow boxing between supporters of the main contenders thus far, I fear the hustings may get even more unattractive – leading to fatigue over all things political for many.

It reminds me of the proverb about the young antelope which danced itself lame before the main event in Chinua Achebe’s classic ‘No Longer At Ease.’

Unlike the 2015 and 2019 campaign cycles which lasted just three months in each instance, this time candidates would be at it for all of six months. The doubling of the time for parties to make their sales pitch has far-reaching implications for the electoral contests at every level.

The longer the campaigns lasts, the more expensive they become. This plays to the advantage of the two biggest platforms – the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – who because of their longer periods of existence and control of government apparatus at federal and state levels, have the ability to muster the sorts of financial resources required to be victorious in a presidential contest.

Elections in any country are expensive undertakings even if laws are not being broken. Anyone who tells you anything different doesn’t know what they are talking about. It is the reason why in the United States there’s usually a big deal made out of the fundraising abilities of aspirants and parties. Many drop out of the race because they are unable to raise the kind of money required to pay for advertising, staffing costs and logistics.

It is the same thing here. Any serious contender who hopes to prevail in the race to succeed Muhammadu Buhari as president must think of how to fund the pre-voting operation across 36 states, as well as pay for the expenses involved in last-minute get-out-the-vote efforts. This includes paying for agents at polling units and even getting your supporters to their polling stations. This isn’t talking about any cash-for-votes scheme.

Perhaps the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) went for the elongated campaign period to afford politicians and electorate more time to engage on the issues that concern them. But that purpose already appears defeated because this is emerging as one of those cycles where voters make up their minds early.

Dearth of statistics wouldn’t allow us to determine how many have made up their minds and how many are still undecided. But such is the polarization of the polity that in discussions with your next door neighbours, complete strangers on social media or even professional colleagues, you get that sense that not too many are waiting to be convinced over six months.

This is not to say that there doesn’t exist a pivotal percentage still waiting to make up their minds. They could eventually decide things in a very tight contest.

However, we shouldn’t be too quick to dismiss the raucous and sometimes in decorous discussion on social media as the bleating of noisemakers without voters cards. How do we know they are all unregistered? Instead, in the absence of proper data, we can use their sentiments as a gauge of how they could act on election day.

To be clear, supporters of the four leading presidential contenders – APC’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu, PDP’s Atiku Abubakar, Labour Party’s Peter Obi and New Nigerian Peoples Party’s Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, are all involved in the emotional back and forth. For them, it’s a beauty contest and beauty still resides in the eyes of the beholder. So, you will read or hear comments like “it doesn’t matter what he’s done, I’m voting for him.” Such remarks are being made even before the firing of the starting gun.

The recent Nigeria Bar Association annual conference held in Lagos was a pointer that those expecting an issue-based campaign that would change minds might just be disappointed. It was the perfect platform for the leading candidates to make their case. From Atiku to Obi to Kashim Shettima who represented Tinubu, they all tried to do so after a fashion. But what provoked furious nationwide discussion afterwards wasn’t their prescriptions, but the former Borno State Governor’s suit size and shoe type. And this in a nation that’s supposedly at an existential crossroads!

Many at that conference weren’t really concerned what candidates other than the one they supported had to say. They were not there for a discussion or to be convinced; they were more focused on guaranteeing that their champion was cheered lustily to the rafters in affirmation of their belief in his popularity and acceptability.

But the 2023 presidential election isn’t a contest in who is the most obnoxious or creative with insults. It would be decided by electoral rules and cold numbers. The greatest challenge facing all candidates is first conquering the constitutional threshold which requires them to win a quarter of votes cast in at least 24 of Nigeria’s 26 states. I see only APC and PDP managing this in the time between now and polling day. Can the most optimistic of NNPP, Labour Party or All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) supporters who may be dreaming of a run-off, honestly list 24 states where they can muster 25% of votes cast?

Ultimately, this will be the same old slugfest between the two heavyweights. But the contest would be tilted in favour of one of them by the disruptions of the lesser party. Former PDP Acting National chairman and one-time Kaduna State Governor, Ahmed Makarfi, understands this. That’s why he’s pleading with Obi to abandon his quest and return to his old haunts. Unfortunately for him, the former Anambra State governor cannot pull out now without a major backlash from his fired-up supporters. That’s bad news for PDP whose hopes he hurts every day he remains in the race.

If Obi has became an unscripted factor that could affect the election’s outcome, so also is Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike. How Atiku and his party manages him would be critical for his chances. All indications so far are that he won’t cave in to his rival’s demands. The result would be entering the contest as a house divided against itself – that age-old recipe for disaster.

Still, these are early days and the 2023 contest retains that intriguing element of unpredictability. So much so that for the first time in more than a decade some analysts actually believe the poll won’t be decided on the first ballot!

If the 2023 presidential election were to be held tomorrow these are the issues that would determine the outcome: religion, ethnicity, hate speech, fake news, among others. They would most likely still be casting a long shadow in six months when actual polling would happen.

Of the lot, religion stands out at this moment for the heat it has generated. Many had hoped the election would be about critical issues confronting the country, how well the government has handled them, and what the candidates are offering to improve the situation.

It is fascinating watching how even those who argue that the contest should be a referendum on the performance of Muhammadu Buhari’s All Progressives Congress (APC) administration, are orchestrating the politics of piety hoping it becomes a winning formula.

The ruling party stirred controversy with the Muslim-Muslim ticket that it has consistently argued is only a strategy to win votes, rather than an assault on the Christian faith and its interests. But if it hoped it’s action would be viewed in the same light as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) picking another Northerner to succeed one who would have served eight years in office, it was mistaken.

Those who think APC made error are not content to wait till February 2023 to punish it for its miscalculation. Rather, they have whipped up this huge brouhaha to discredit the Bola Tinubu-Kashim Shettima ticket.

Especially shocking is the very frontal intervention of certain Christian leaders in the debate. Even before the selection was made, they had started making ominous threats. Others have since followed up with ecclesiastical edicts to their followers on who to vote for and who not to support.

If, indeed, APC has made a historical error that supposedly hurts one religion’s interests, the way some of these leaders have gone about their opposition may well turn out to be a grievous mistake on the same level. To put it delicately, many haven’t acted with wisdom.

They have carried on as though the voting population are entirely Christians who will be mobilised to defeat those who have defied them. But one of the unintended consequences of their hysteria is to create a them versus us atmosphere.

Just as they can mobilise their followers, Muslims across the divide can do the same – creating a dangerous contest for religious supremacy in an already unstable polity. Who needs that given the history of sectarian conflict in parts of the country?

The clerics stoking the fires with their fiery sermons need to reflect on the likely outcome of their adventure, especially when the obedience (apologies to Peter Obi supporters) of their followers isn’t guaranteed.

Familiarity with the Scriptures shows that human beings don’t even obey God all the time. In fact, the vast majority daily fall over themselves to disobey the Almighty. That’s why at every point in time there are more sinners than saints.

A little humility would help these excitable clerics realise that despite their huffing and puffing, there’s no guarantee all Christians would vote for candidates of their faith, or Muslims only for those who share their beliefs.

Indeed, if polling units were erected next to the pulpit in some worship centres, the leaders would be astonished to discover how their faithful followers have voted.

If the current raging over faith balance is about exercising influence, then we need to learn from the Americans whose presidential system of government we copied.

In the US, it’s often said that the president’s closest adviser is his spouse. She’s the one he sees last each day and first thing in the morning. After supposedly powerful courtiers might have made their case in the office, she has the ability to turn their counsel upside down on the pillow next to him.

That country’s history is replete with famous and very influential First Ladies – from Eleanor Roosevelt, to the likes of Rosalynn Carter, Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama.

Given that her husband, Franklin, lost use of his legs due to paralytic illness, Eleanor began giving public speeches and appearing at campaign events on his behalf. Mrs. Carter was just as controversial as she sat in on Cabinet meetings and also served as an envoy abroad.

When Bill Clinton wanted to launch a tenure-defining healthcare initiative in his first term, it was his wife Hillary he asked to head the committee to push its passage through Congress. She was also actively involved in vetting candidates for political appointments.

This isn’t to advocate an intrusive First Ladyship in Nigeria given the constitutional ambiguity over the role. However, if the current hyperventilation over the fact that the APC’s presidential running mate is a Muslim like his principal is about exercising influence and power, we must not dismiss as irrelevant the fact that Tinubu’s wife, is a pastor. What could be more powerful for Christians than having one of their own in the bedroom of the president?

Under our constitution, the Vice President is powerful simply because he automatically takes over if the incumbent dies in office. Beyond that, he’s only as relevant as his boss wants him to be. In the Fourth Republic we’ve seen a couple reduced to just drinking tea and opening conferences after falling out with the president.

Playing on fear and ignorance, some have argued that the same-faith ticket is a vehicle for Islamisation of the country. But those who seek comfort in the Muslim-Christian ticket should explain how it furthers their religion’s interest when the presidential candidate is from a different faith.

If this is truly about contending for one’s faith, then we should ask how balancing a political ticket enhances the cause of the gospel. In all the parties you won’t find anything beyond hazy commitments to upholding the right of citizens to freedom of worship.

In reality, three of the most notable presidential candidates are Muslim. Their antecedents should provide comfort or discomfiture for those who are worried about any sort of religious conspiracy. Some have pointed out that Tinubu who some now wish to ascribe some sort of evil agenda to hasn’t forced his wife to abandon her faith. The same cannot be said of his rival Atiku, two of whose wives converted to Islam and took new names.

In the long run, fanning the fires of religious hysteria doesn’t help those doing so. They stand in grave danger of getting burnt by the fallout.

What is really tragic is how this electoral cycle is being wasted on identity politics when it should be about discussing inflation, unemployment, a ballooning population and its implications, healthcare, infrastructure, insecurity and so much more.

Another thing to watch for is how fake news and hate speech are becoming factors as election day draws nearer. More and more, I am reminded of how former US President Donald Trump rose to power. At the onset the outlandish reality star and wheeler-dealer was viewed as something of a joke by Republican Party grandees.

But he and his campaign showed that there was no truth they could not twist. As they casually deployed alternative facts they found a large pool of ignorant Americans ready to lap up anything spewed out by the charismatic politician. Many who ended up voting for him did so after gobbling up the falsehood he circulated, especially when it connected with their prejudices.

In today’s Nigeria, social media has become a cesspool of lies which the ignorant lap up as fact. Videos are doctored, images are photoshopped to project victims in unflattering light. Quotes are attributed to individuals who never made such statements.

Those who share these things are not concerned about consequences when the truth eventually comes to light. They are solely driven by hate, not a need to engage in reasonable discussion. You only need to venture into the comment sections to understand how deep the vein of ethnic and religious hatred is.

Unfortunately, many pushing these things are young people who don’t want their notions and assumptions challenged. It’s their way or the highway. It is the mindset of the bully and dictator that has taken hold of those you would describe as Nigeria’s future. What a scary cocktail we’re toying with: intolerance and misbegotten religious zeal.

Nigeria lies prostrate before homicidal maniacs sowing death from north to south. Every day, every week, brings some new outrage and we are becoming well-nigh unshockable.

It’s hard to estimate the numbers of those consumed monthly by the wave of mindless killings, but suffice it to say they would be in the hundreds. It’s not just the statistics that are scary, but the sheer depravity and the brazen manner in which lives are taken by killers who have lost every claim to being called human.

In spite of what we’ve witnessed in the last couple of years, it’s still hard to come to terms with how gunmen calmly walked into a church service in Owo, Ondo State and shot more than 30 worshippers over yet to be identified grievances. The perpetrators remain at large while a deeply traumatised community is left to deal with its grief.

A weeping Governor Rotimi Akeredolu at the funeral service for the victims acknowledged official helplessness in protecting the populace. We failed our people, he declared.

In the Southeast, an intersection between the activities of Independent Peoples of Biafra (IPOB) militants and those conveniently christened “unknown gunmen” keeps producing a harvest of corpses and circumscribed freedom. These non-state actors ensure that in most states in the zone, residents remain indoors on Mondays.

Now, there’s a darker dimension to the bloodletting. The killers aren’t just content with terminating life, they are now doing so in a statement-making way. In the last couple of months two prominent people were not just murdered, they were beheaded.

Anambra State Governor, Chukwuma Soludo, whose state has become epicentre of the killings has vowed to confront the gunmen. But his fighting talk is often followed by another mindboggling homicide. It’s almost as if the merchants of death are calling his bluff.

The governor says that’s what they are – just merchants, not people driven by any sort of political agitation. At a recent briefing he spoke of how a security raid at one of the forests in his domain unearthed the accounting books of the killers, detailing revenues and expenditures of their gory business. Still, all he could offer the people was hope of deliverance down the road.

Large parts of the Northwest have accepted that government as we know it – state or federal – isn’t about to rescue them any time soon. So, they’ve wisely surrendered to the reign of bandits who levy protection taxes on their communities.

Everything that the government has thrown at them – from disruption of communications to targeted military operations – haven’t stopped the killers. It only seems to make them beat a strategic retreat, only to return for business as usual.

Zamfara State Governor, Bello Matawalle, caused a stir a few days back when he called on his people to acquire arms to defend themselves. He wasn’t saying anything new. His colleague in Benue, Samuel Ortom, has made similar calls in the past after presiding over many funerals for victims of killings in his state.

Matawalle’s statement has triggered criticism from some who pointed out he was standing on shaky legal grounds.

His is only just the latest in a stream of kneejerk solutions that haven’t made a dent on the problem. Remember how after a particular mass killing President Muhammadu Buhari gathered his security chiefs and charged them to shoot on sight anyone found carrying an AK-47 in the bush. We know how many people have been shot arising from that order.

Again, Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, perhaps out of frustration, has called in the past for the security forces to bomb known locations of terrorists and bandits. This has been tried a couple of times. Again, the tactic may have caused them to scatter for a while, but they always regroup to carry on from where their activities were disrupted.

No matter how seductive these kneejerk actions may appear; they can’t provide long term solutions that bring peace to communities. Indeed, some of the suggestions are not just problematic, they are downright impractical.

The call for people to arm themselves appears attractive on the surface because it supposedly provides some sort of balance of terror. However, we’ve seen from societies like the United States that the constitutional right of citizens to own and openly carry guns hasn’t shielded them from the havoc of mass murderers.

Hardly a month passes without news of some gunman going on a murderous rampage against unarmed people. The upshot is that a country with hundreds of years of laws permitting people to own arms, has just been dragged kicking and screaming into enacting a modest gun control legislation.

Still, some want to believe that if we all have guns, life would be ever so peaceful. Not so! The easy part in a country whose people have developed a keen taste for lawlessness is liberalising the acquisition of weapons. The harder part would be ensuring their lawful use – such that minor disagreements between neighbours aren’t resolved by shootouts.

Again, allowing people to acquire weapons isn’t going to make communities more secure, rather it would exacerbate the gulf between the rich and poor. While the former may be able to afford nuclear warheads to defend their islands of opulence, the lesser privileged would remain at the mercy of organised criminals who can muster the resources to buy the most sophisticated weapons in pursuit of their enterprise.

The idea of citizens arming themselves is in reality just the latest example of the state abdicating its responsibilities to the people. It bears restating that it is the constitutional duty of governments to ensure the security of citizens. That is why in most jurisdictions it’s only law enforcement agencies and the armed forces that can legally carry weapons.

In some instances, not every member of those agencies – depending on their assignment – is permitted to carry deadly weapons. Yes, people can apply to own guns for ‘good reason.’ But in the United Kingdom and Norway, for instance, self-defence is not accepted as a valid reason for obtaining a gun licence.

Despite the high visibility of guns in the United States, its crime rate is far higher than countries like Switzerland, Denmark, Norway, Japan and New Zealand. Yet, some of these countries have the most restrictive gun laws in the world. This shows that having more weapons isn’t necessarily the route to a more peaceful society.

Rather, there would be a turnaround when we begin an honest national dialogue that interrogates what’s driving the killings and we understand how serious the insecurity problem is across the country.

Motives are certainly not the same across zones. Take the Owo church massacre. Federal agencies were quick to blame ISWAP but the state government vehemently disagreed. Something just didn’t sit right. What would be the propaganda advantage to Islamic State of an attack on an anonymous Catholic Church in Owo?

For the bandits in Zamfara and other parts of the Northwest, their motivation isn’t ideological but economic. It is the same for the kidnappers making killer profit across the South. But you cannot ascribe the same reasons to those who target security agents and police stations in the Southeast.

The needed interventions may be political, military or economic – depending on the root causes. Measures that would wean those who have identified criminality as very profitable would take a long time to put in place. But there are more immediate steps that can be taken to reclaim territories which the criminals have made their haven.

Akeredolu in his plaint spoke of how most forests in the country have been taken over by terrorists. His words echo those of Kano State Governor, Abdullahi Ganduje, who last December spoke of how the Falgore forest in his domain had been overrun by armed robbers, rogue herdsmen and terrorists.

There’s need for proper profiling of these killers wherever they operate to identify the best way to tackle them. But whatever is done our forests must be made uncomfortable for them. This will require coordinated action between federal and state governments as well as local communities.

One short term solution is to mobilise as many of the nation’s security agencies to retake these wilds. This requires an increase in recruitment and investment in technology given the expanse of territory to be covered and the number of criminals to be confronted.

Clearly, legislators playing political games don’t understand the gravity of the situation. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have dropped the state police idea from the recent constitutional amendment exercise. This is one sure way of boosting the number of security forces who can complement the federal police and other agencies to combat aggravated crimes across the land.

Some of these measures the Buhari administration can initiate. But with its limited lifespan the responsibility lies more with those who will take over from him. That’s why major parties and their presidential candidates must be challenged to show Nigerians credible plans for restoring peace to the land in the shortest possible time.