Category: Festus Eriye

IN another seventy-two hours Nigerians will queue to elect Muhammadu Buhari’s successor. I have argued over the last six months that of the most talked about candidates, only two have a realistic chance of being elected president based on existing rules.

They are Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). I recognise that Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) would be a critical factor as a disrupter, but that disruption can only weaken one of the big two – it won’t make him president.

As for Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, former Kano State Governor and federal minister, I keep scratching my head to understand his game. It certainly isn’t to win on Saturday because the best of his New Nigerian People’s Party’s (NNPP) efforts thus far haven’t given him traction beyond his home state and a few surrounding ones. I can only assume that he is trying to reenact the old Aminu Kano phenomenon of being a sub-regional powerhouse. His People’s Redemption Party (PRP) had phenomenal following mainly in Kano and, to a lesser degree, in Kaduna.

Kwankwaso, like Obi, would have a disruptive influence on the presidential election in Kano. This state has the second largest vote pot in the country and it is one in which any potential winner must perform well in to have any hope. It had been a traditional PDP stronghold until it switched to the APC column in 2015 following the then governor’s defection.

In this cycle, APC retains the power of incumbency. When Kwankwaso pulled out to found NNPP, he virtually sucked life out of what was PDP in the state – leaving it enfeebled and riven with factions. Today, most analysts expect it to emerge a distant third after the dust settles.

For Tinubu and APC everything seemed to going well until they receive the sucker punches of petrol and naira scarcities. It created the worst case scenario for a ruling party going into an election. In the annals of own goals, this was a spectacular strike and not many could have seen it coming. It was friendly fire coming from the most unexpected of quarters – a feast for conspiracy theorists.

Until this February surprise, the presidential candidate and his party had managed to present a united front, papering over bitter fallouts that have lingered since the primaries. This is in direct contrast to the PDP’s intractable civil war which has seen a reenactment of the Gang of Five governors’ revolt of 2014.

That rebellion led to the so-called New PDP joining forces with other legacy parties to birth APC and ultimately topple a ruling party that was so confident of its strength, it’s one-time leader bragged it would govern for an unbroken length of sixty years.

Eight years ago the PDP under Goodluck Jonathan and then party chair, Bamanga Tukur, dismissed the five governors along with their allies as troublemakers whose exit would herald a new dawn of peace. They refused to meet them half way. But in doing so they empowered a fledgling opposition, transforming it overnight into a national platform with sufficient spread to win the presidential polls.

In an uncanny way, the party has repeated the same mistake. In not bending over backwards to secure the commitment of Nyesom Wike and his G-5 colleagues, PDP has jeopardised its chances in a must-win state and four other potentially pivotal ones.

Anyone who knows Nigerian politics understands that any winner must take all or most of Lagos, Kano and Rivers States. As things stand the big three are well outside the influence of Atiku and firmly inclined to fall into Tinubu’s laps. If the former Vice President falls below his 2019 vote levels in these states and the APC support holds or grows, he is toast.

Bear in mind that most analysts expect Obi to do well in Lagos and Rivers – eating into the traditional PDP base. They also expect him to win in almost all of the Southeast states – fishing grounds that Atiku would ordinarily be banking on. In fact the expectation is not just that Obi will prevail on home ground, the only unknown is how much he would devastate the PDP vote.

The main opposition party’s strategy in plumping for Atiku – a Northerner – to succeed Buhari, another Northerner who would have spent eight years in office, was the assumption that regional/ethnic solidarity would trump all else. Against his calculations, the intriguers who tried to sell the lie that only a fellow Northerner could go against the ex-VP, failed to successfully execute their plot at the APC primaries.

They tried and failed to sell Senate President Ahmed Lawan as consensus candidate. It was because there was really no such regional agreement either with APC or cross party. In the end it was 14 Northern governors who decided that power must shift South and that Tinubu would be the beneficiary of their support. In taking that step they entwined their political destinies with his.

From that moment on Atiku was no longer running against Tinubu alone, he was up against the APC candidate, his Northern governor allies and everything their powers of incumbency can bring to the table. For every time the Turaki Adamawa tries to posture as a regional champion, he comes up against the likes of Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, Kano’s Abdullahi Ganduje or Vice Presidential candidate, Kashim Shettima, who can also rightly claim to be power brokers in the same zone.

That’s another way of saying Atiku is no Buhari and would not be inheriting the incumbent president’s captive 12 million votes just because he is Fulani or from Adamawa State. As the late Chief M.K.O. Abiola showed in 1993 when he defeated the National Republican Convention’s (NRC), Bashir Tofa, with the right allies and platform, a well-connected Southerner can floor a flawed Northerner on his home turf.

So if Atiku isn’t sure of the Southeast, Southwest, South-South and is not certain of pulling 12 million votes from the hat like Buhari, where’s his pathway to the presidency? Obi’s fatal handicap is how to secure 25% of votes cast in 24 states given that his support is anaemic in the North and Southwest.

That leaves Tinubu in a very strong position. He only needs to produce a good performance at home, perform better than Buhari in the South-South and Southeast, and using his party structures manage a strong outing across the three Northern zones. His reception as he campaigned across the region shows this is quite attainable.

In the end all candidates have made their case to the Nigerian people. They have told us their grand plans, although in many instances conveniently left out how they intend to make these things happen. What they have said they would do isn’t enough reason to vote for them. What if they don’t keep their promises? Obi and his running mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed, sometimes glibly respond “hold us responsible if we don’t deliver.” How? When you are already in office wielding presidential power?

Instead of depending on a politician’s words, look at what he has done; look at his track record when he had the power to do good. Examine what his vision produced when he was governor or Vice President.

I have assessed the leading candidates. Like all humans they have flaws. For every salacious story peddled about Tinubu, you would find an equivalent surrounding Atiku or Obi. But these are the ones the process has thrown up for us to vote as our next president.

Based on what we know about them I have no difficulty endorsing Tinubu for president. As Lagos State governor he outlined a vision that many states have copied. He is celebrated for his ability to put together a brilliant team and the succession process he put in place has worked fairly well. Many testify that he is a compassionate man and God knows Nigeria desperately needs an empathetic leader at this time.

He is bold. He spoke out against the anti-people naira redesign fiasco at a time most politicians would have gladly sulked in silence for fear of offending the powers-that-be. When he sensed that powerful forces were conspiring to deny him the APC ticket, he cried out ‘Emilokan!’ The rest is history.

Just as important, the country needs a strong president with the courage to take the hard decisions needed for a turnaround. He was tough enough to take on former President Olusegun Obasanjo when he confiscated Lagos State funds. He fought him when he was rampaging through the country sponsoring crooked impeachment against governors.

Even his decision to pick someone of same faith as running mate has turned out to be inspired and justified. Once he was clear about his objective, the fallout that would follow didn’t matter. A country that has wobbled because of a long running leadership problem needs a firm hand at the tiller. Tinubu is the man this moment calls for.

The longstanding national debate about the role of money in Nigerian politics has come full circle. In the last two years, a seeming consensus on the need to reduce the impact of cash led to inclusion in the new Electoral Act of campaign spending limits and stringent sanctions against voter inducement.

Despite these efforts, we find ourselves back in square one with the naira, again, on the front burner as potentially a factor that could decide the outcome of this month’s polls.

Going into elections, incumbents and their parties are often on the defensive because they have records to defend. In the course of their tenure they might have been forced to take tough decisions that they have to defend. For damage limitation purposes, they try to ensure that the best conditions that guarantee their electability exist at the time of polling.

Contrariwise, the opposition are usually on the offensive, attacking the record of the incumbent. Given that they have nothing to defend they revel in the failings of their opponents, twisting the knife for maximum effect. They offer untested promises of a better way forward and invite an antsy electorate to take a gamble with them.

That’s why the Central Bank’s decision to redesign the naira as a cure-all for insecurity, money laundering and vote buying, has spun out of control and become political football to be kicked in every direction by all interested parties. Don’t be fooled, not much about what’s going now is altruistic.

If you needed evidence of how political things have become consider the litigation that the contentious policy has triggered and the litigants behind the cases. On Monday, a court granted an injunction barring the apex bank from extending the deadline for return of old notes. The suit was filed by a clutch of fringe parties led by Action Alliance (AA) asking the court to force the CBN to press ahead.

Action Alliance went to court to stop All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, on grounds of certificate forgery. On December 13 last year, a Federal High Court in Abuja dismissed the suit as ‘incompetent.’ The judge said the plaintiff lacked locus standi, saying it acted like a busybody, having interfered in the internal affairs of another party.

The same AA, instead of canvassing for votes for its candidates on the hustings, is campaigning in the court over CBN naira redesign. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to know that some mischief is at hand.

Same day, governors of Kaduna, Kogi and Zamfara States approached the Supreme Court for an order restraining the CBN from continuing with the naira redesign policy. They cited the scarcity of new notes, chaotic rollout and widespread suffering it has engendered in their states.

For the candidates of the ruling APC, it has been a trying few weeks. From the presidential candidate to others running for positions in the National Assembly, it has been frustrating having to campaign weighed down by the double whammy of petrol scarcity and the very original headache of denying the people access to their cash – all in the name of transiting to a cashless economy.

Fuel queues on their own are bad enough, but the sight of hapless, angry ordinary Nigerians besieging ATMs and fighting in bank halls in desperate bid to access cash, seemed like the ruling party was provoking the electorate not to vote for them. If it was a naive and innocent miscalculation on the part of President Muhammadu Buhari who no longer needs votes, it was a gift to a factionalised opposition that had so far run an uninspired campaign for months.

The twin unforced errors caused Tinubu to cry out about a plot by Fifth Columnists to derail his presidential bid. But it wasn’t only his aspiration that was endangered. Suddenly, governors realised that because they were hitched at the waist with the presidential candidate, anything that hurt his chances also endangered their National Assembly and gubernatorial candidates.

They, too, have been howling about how the twin scarcities were politically-induced. They questioned the timing, traced the implementation of the dubious policies to a cabal surrounding a notoriously hands-off president. They questioned the motivations of the promoter – a Central Bank Governor who unprecedentedly openly pursued a presidential bid and still managed to be retained in office after what many considered an unpardonable sin for a man in his position.

Even if Emefiele’s intentions were pure and patriotic, he introduced not just a policy but a weapon that the opposition could manipulate in the heat of battle. Citizens angered by their experiences in the last few weeks would be inclined to lash out emotionally at those they blame for their woes. They can’t be bothered if the alternative is the devil with two horns.

All said and done, Emefiele has come up with a cure that’s infinitely worse than the disease. The redesign was supposed to flush out all illicit cash, but more than a month after close to a trillion is still supposedly out there in the wild.

This exercise was supposed to devastate the finances of terrorists and kidnappers. But the quarry has instead been having a good laugh. A few days ago, the notorious bandit leader, Kachalla Baleri, posted a viral video of himself posing with mint-fresh bundles of the new notes. He boasted he had up to N10 million of the currency – enough to purchase more weapons. So much for putting violent criminals out of business!

The policy was also supposed to starve potential vote buyers of the cash they needed to induce voters. It is doubtful whether this has been achieved. Politicians had adequate notice of the CBN’s intentions and would have cornered enough of the initial billions released for their own ends. There are plenty of reasons to believe this is the case. After all, less powerful skit makers and actresses are all over social media abusing bundles of the supposedly scarce new notes at their bacchanals.

And who says that inducement would necessarily be by physical cash on voting day? Chinua Achebe famously quoted Eneke the bird as saying since men had learnt to shoot without missing, it had learnt to fly without perching. Politicians who are determined to reach potential voters with money may find it even more convenient to do so under the new rules. After all, their transfers are not likely to carry the narration ‘For Vote Buying.’

Buhari and Emefiele have accused the banks of sabotaging their beautiful policy through hoarding. But the accused, through the Association of Corporate Affairs Managers of Banks (ACAMB), just rejected the allegations, pointing to the fact that having ploughed in over N100 billion into IT infrastructure to facilitate cashless transactions, they couldn’t now as group turn around to endanger such huge investments.

Clearly, someone isn’t telling the whole truth here. Did the Central Bank provide enough new notes to guarantee a seamless rollout or are all banks complicit in the display of corporate greed on an industrial scale? The evidence suggests that this not the case. As some have pointed out, the new naira is being rationed despite repeated assurances of its availability. Unfortunately, you don’t ration that which is readily available.

Remember when the CBN Governor furiously blamed the naira’s woes on a certain Aboki FX – a website that publishes the daily official and parallel market rates of the naira. Scandalised at how he was suddenly transformed into a villain for posting the obvious, the owner of the site decided to test Emefiele’s theory by shutting his operations for four weeks so the naira could appreciate. Nothing of the sort happened. Instead, the precipitous decline against major global currencies became more pronounced afterwards.

With such a record, it is doubtful whether anyone can take the prescriptions of the CBN boss as gospel truth any more. Even if angry Nigerians blame him for their traumatic experiences in recent weeks, there’s not much they can do beyond cursing him to high heavens. After all, the man is not running for office.

Emefiele is a billionaire banker who for the rest of his days wouldn’t be worried about money. But he should be disturbed that when his time in office comes to end, all that people would remember him for is the new naira disaster.

President Buhari faces the same challenge. His achievements in infrastructure, agriculture and decimation of insurgents in the Northeast would be overshadowed by the currency shambles. Surely, he wouldn’t want that as the image Nigerians see whenever they look in the rear mirror post May 2023.

Barring something that triggers the declaration of a force majeure, Nigerians will elect a successor to President Muhammadu Buhari this month. The date is set: February 25. Preparations by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) are continuing apace. Although, that has never stopped a sudden postponement in the recent past.

Early in February 2015, then electoral commission boss, Professor Attahiru Jega, announced a six-week shift of polls that had been scheduled for the 18th of that month. His explanation was that troops who should police the vote were bogged down trying to push back Boko Haram insurgents in the Northeast, so that some semblance of elections could hold in the region. The then opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) complained about the ‘provocative’ action it alleged was designed to help the incumbent Goodluck Jonathan.

Four years later, Jega’s successor, Professor Mahmoud Yakubu, pulled off another stunning last-minute change in polling date. In the dead of night – at about 2.30am on February 16 – just hours before voters were to begin casting ballots nationwide, he announced a one-week adjustment of the schedule. He blamed it on logistics challenges that if not addressed could harm the quality of the elections.

With such a history it’s no surprise that the specter of postponement has hovered somewhere in the horizon over the past few months. Those fears were fanned when certain INEC official raised the alarm about the potential impact of attacks on its facilities in the Southeast and other incidents of insecurity around the country.

But Yakubu has been quick to stamp out any such notion, doing so most recently during his outing at Chatham House in London.

Having slogged through what has been one of the longest campaign seasons in recent history, I doubt whether Nigerians – especially the majority who are not interested in intrigues and manipulation – would countenance any sort of adjustment in dates. They just want the elections done so they can move on with their lives.

Still, no one can ignore the crisis over fuel scarcity and the bungled naira swap. Disruptions in petrol supply have become a regular feature of national life. They are annoying occurrences that often manifest towards year end as marketers and sundry speculators anticipate whether the authorities would approve upward price adjustments. When that doesn’t occur or when some sort of hike is implemented, the queues miraculously disappear.

But long after the Yuletide festivities the sight of many still camped at fuel stations in desperate search for fuel has blighted the campaigns. Although, every administration in the last twenty years has had to deal with this, they were savvy enough not to allow it fester in an election season knowing it’s an easy way to piss voters off. It is something that the APC presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu, clearly understands.

Returning to Abeokuta where he made his now famous Emilokan speech, he lashed out at Fifth Columnists and saboteurs who he blamed for the prolonged fuel crisis and timing of the naira swap. It was another explosive intervention which, again, confirmed the acuity of his political instincts as his words connected with the frustration in the streets.

For the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) it was propaganda gold as they quickly spun Tinubu’s comments to mean he was somehow at odds with Buhari. After all, the naira swap, if not fuel scarcity, was government policy which the president appeared enthused about.

The criticism was in line with previous opposition suggestions that the president wasn’t really backing the APC candidate. They pointed to his not attending APC rallies after the opener in Jos. The riposte from the ruling party was a reiteration of Buhari’s enduring support by announcing his commitment to ten campaign stops with Tinubu.

For many ordinary Nigerians who suffered unnecessarily in a bid to access cash, tensions over the naira swap haven’t totally eased despite the shift in deadline. People who are used to having cash are suddenly suffering from withdrawal symptoms. The rhetoric from Buhari and the Central Bank says the currency redesign initiative is largely targeted at vote buyers. That partly explains the timing.

The good thing is that the measure would impact all political parties. Since the CBN policy is being projected as a cure-all solution, losers should be prepared to accept defeat without blaming their loss on their opponents superior vote-buying capabilities. The cynics would argue, however, that there’s no law made under the heavens that Nigerians cannot get around.

As for the fuel scarcity, it remains to be seen whether the queues would remain an awkward backdrop when Nigerians go to the polls in another three weeks, or whether a wand would be waved causing them to disappear.

This close to polling day nothing has happened in the campaigns to change my view that it would be another two-horse contest. In fact, the longer the process has lasted the more the inadequacies of the lesser of the four prominent parties – Labour Party (LP) and New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP) – have become apparent. Their lack of nationwide spread should now be evident to even the most starry-eyed of supporters. At best, they may drain support from the two main parties in their regional redoubts.

When the dust finally settles on February 25 many would be trying to make sense of how the internal squabbles within PDP affected the outcome. A victory for former Vice President Atiku Abubakar would mean that the G5 governors and their arrowhead, Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike, were overrated.

But their continued refusal to campaign for him means he could underperform in a number of pivotal states like Rivers and Oyo. That’s a major worry given that the other major vote pots – Lagos and Kano – are strongholds of his rival Tinubu.

In the last few weeks the former Vice President’s camp has launched an aggressive fight back against its foes within PDP. Unfortunately, it looks like too little too late. The demand of the Wike camp for party chairman, Iyorchia Ayu’s, head to be served to them on a platter isn’t going to happen. Just as unlikely is the prospect that the rebels would capitulate and kiss Atiku’s ring without something to show for their struggle.

Over seven years ago, five governors joined forces with the opposition to bring down the PDP government. This cycle, the curse of five has struck again as the same number of governors by their position may just prevent their party from returning to power – at least for another four years.

With a little over five weeks to polling day, this campaign cycle is turning out to be quite strange. Things have picked up after the Yuletide and New Year festivities, but the excitement that normally accompanies a typical Nigerian election, has been largely muted. I am yet to see anything near the feverish, frenetic dash to the finishing line that we witnessed in 2015. Perhaps, it may yet come.

But a sleepy nation was served something close when the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential campaign hit Kano in the first week of the year. In scenes reminiscent of what happened seven years ago when then candidate Muhammadu Buhari visited the ancient city, a massive crowd seized the streets in celebration of a political cause.

For the ruling party and its flagbearer, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, it was a chance to lay down a marker and show that despite the incumbent not being on the ballot, despite home boy Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso being in the contest, this remains one of its most reliable strongholds where a very strong turnout could be decisive in producing a winner.

In this election season, three hundred people gathered around a stage somewhere would be described as a “mammoth crowd.” But the Kano rally truly qualified to be described in those terms if you are not viewing it through partisan, green-tinted goggles.

There were those who were keenly monitoring the reception that Tinubu received in Kano as a gauge of his connection with a Northern electorate that has bonded so well with Buhari through several elections. So, in mustering those numbers the candidate and party scaled a hurdle of sorts.

People argue that attendance at rallies is no indication of depth of support. That may not be totally correct. Rallies have their uses otherwise parties would have stopped investing so much effort and resources holding them.

In an attempt to be dismissive people talk of “rented crowds” and “organic” ones. The assumption is that when a party has a massive turnout, the attendees must have been procured at tidy sum. On the other hand, those who attend a rally that flops are genuine supporters of a candidate. Nothing can be more ridiculous!

The amusing thing is those who are quick to sneer at other people’s crowds as rented are quick to celebrate whenever they manage to organise an outing that attracts a couple of thousands.

In reality, putting together a rally that attracts massive numbers involves financial resources and organisation. It is actually evidence of the strength and depth of a party in that environment if it is able to pull it off. Rather than just viewing it from the cynical perspective that all who came did so because of hunger, consider the fact that they could also be party cadres identifying with a cause. Truth be told, every party that holds major rallies spends money to bus its supporters to the venue. It’s nothing new in these parts. The sneering, therefore, may just be a bad case of crowd envy.

One interesting feature of the campaigns – at least from the perspective of the APC – had been the absence of Buhari from the hustings, despite his vow to lead the effort from the front. The main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) sought to make political capital out it by suggesting that the president wasn’t really backing Tinubu.

Well, he responded by committing himself to attending 10 rallies – beginning with those held in Adamawa and Yobe. When the president actually showed up in Yola to raise Tinubu’s hands, PDP grumbled that the endorsement was less than fulsome because he didn’t specifically mention his name – he just talked about supporters voting for all APC candidates top to bottom. That would include the presidential candidate by the way!

This is the campaign where many cried for a discussion about the critical issues facing the country but have been served dross in return. If you thought it hit a low with a debate about the sartorial sense of the APC Vice Presidential candidate, Kashim Shettima, what came after has been joyful mudslinging and the parroting of inanities.

For a couple of weeks the hue and cry was about gaffes made by Tinubu. One day at a rally he was about telling voters to cast their ballot for his party but said ‘vote PD…’ and quickly corrected himself to say ‘vote APC.’ On social media his opponents and critics were orgasmic, next day a major national newspaper ran an almost celebratory headline that declared ‘Tinubu says vote PDAPC.’

The gaffes have since become more infectious than COVID-19. PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar caught it and was captured on video imploring his supporters to vote ‘APPDP.’ It spread quickly within the family because before his slip of tongue, his wife Titi had also tripped and canvassed support for ‘APC’.

Not surprisingly, one recent report stated all the major campaigns have been focused on everything but a discussion about the critical issues facing the country. They would disagree and say they’ve been speaking about the economy, insecurity and sundry matters. But anyone who has been listening would probably have heard a lot of ‘I will do this, I will do that’, with very little specifics as to how they intend to perform magic.

I’m not too certain how much foreign influence has tipped the scales in recent Nigerian elections. But for weeks everyone has been making a beeline for Chatham House in London. First it was Tinubu. Now, Labour Party’s Peter Obi has had his say. Kwankwaso is expected. It’s only Atiku that has not responded to the invitation so far. Beyond the chance to posture as the greatest orator since Cicero, how the chatter from this distant location will change voting patterns in Okigwe or Kontagora remains a mystery to me.

What’s a campaign without a healthy dose of the salacious? In the last week an audio tape by an ex-aide of Atiku’s, Michael Achimugu, in which the former Vice President was captured retailing how public funds were channeled through the so-called Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV) when he was in office went viral. The scheme was supposedly executed with the approval of former President Olusegun Obasanjo.

Rather than offering a credible response to an embarrassing admission by its candidate, the PDP campaign resorted to insinuating that the whistleblower was suborned by Tinubu who it claimed also had questions to answer over funds forfeited to the US government in the past. Significantly, the party didn’t deny its man was the one on tape. It didn’t address the allegations. It’s only response was ‘you also have dirt on your hands.’

As Election Day draws ever closer, anticipate a greater degree of desperation. We are already seeing that manifesting with the resort to ethnic sentiments by one of the campaigns in the North. It remains to be seen how voters would respond to the low ball appeal to tribalism. That would show how much progress Nigeria has made in 62 years to unify its disparate parts.  

For more than a decade, one of the defining images of December in Nigeria has been long queues of vehicles and people camped in petrol stations across the country, in desperate search for subsidised fuel. Some years under President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration were an exception as they were largely free of the annual ritual.

But this year, queues which popped up in major metropolis intermittently, came back with a vengeance at year end and, despite the best efforts of government and its agencies, remain an ugly blight on festivities and travel plans for many across the land. 

It could have been worse but for the fact the regulators have turned a blind eye to allow as many marketers as can get away with it to sell at rates as high as N250 and N300 per liter if it made economic sense. That limited the snaking queues to Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and outlets of other major marketers that could still afford to sell at the controlled rates.

The temptation therefore would be to say that this year, the more things changed the more they’ve remained the same. After all, one of the proud boasts of officials of the administration is that for most of the Buhari years the December petrol scarcity carnival has largely been absent. 

The fact that despite the government’s best efforts the problem has resurfaced in the dying days of its tenure confirms that the fundamental causes haven’t been addressed. The rapid collapse of the naira to the dollar simply meant that the crisis was unavoidable because the government for reasons of stability in the polity couldn’t afford to allow such a strategic commodity to be sold at prices that truly reflected economic reality, when the people’s earnings were not adjusted accordingly.

Previous attempts at ending subsidies bleeding the country dry have often been resisted by labour unions and were usually abandoned on the back of street riots. It would be politically inexpedient to expect the administration to pull the plug knowing the price it would pay with a crucial election just two months away. So, it had to do the next best thing which is kick the troublous can further down the road. 

It may not have solved the problem, but one thing the administration has done is prepare people psychologically for the inevitable removal of what has become an unsustainable subsidy burden. In many parts of the country motorists have bought fuel at rates far north of the official price – except in major cities like Lagos, Abuja and Port Harcourt. Today, many residents in those places would gladly pay whatever it takes to fill their tanks rather than spend hours and days at the station.

So far, the leading presidential candidates have made comments suggesting their commitment to doing something drastic about the problem. None more so than so than All Progressives Congress (APC) flagbearer, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who while acknowledging there would be resistance, has vowed to end the subsidy regime. What’s going on presently gives him a soft landing if eventually it becomes his lot to take that tough decision.

This year has also been special as it marked the beginning of the transition process – one trailed by all manner of conspiracy theories. It was the year that pundits assured would produce gloom and doom, instead it delivered a damp squib. The heavens didn’t fall after all. We were only served the usual entertaining twists and turns – not political Armageddon.

Beyond the ongoing fixation with who would eventually prevail in the presidential race and other high profile contests, what has played out in the parties this year would have profound transformative effect on Nigerian politics going forward. 

This was the year when conventional wisdom was turned on its head and a couple of sacred cows slaughtered to the mildest of protests. Take for instance zoning. Harking back to the Second Republic, the concepts of regional balancing and power rotation had become unquestioned articles of faith in Nigerian politics.

That was why long before the parties set about choosing their candidates, Southern governors across party lines, met in Asaba, Delta State, and agreed a communique demanding that the next president come from the South after the incumbent – a Northerner – would have held office for eight years. They reaffirmed that commitment at a subsequent conclave in Lagos.

But surprise, surprise, some of those same governors in the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) quickly repudiated that agreement to support the emergence of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar – another Northerner – as the party’s candidate. The host of that landmark Southern governors summit, Delta State Governor, Ifeanyi Okowa, joyfully joined the ticket as running mate. The consequence of that fundamental u-turn is the long-running intra-party crisis that produced the G5 governors faction.

As of today, Atiku is rated by most credible commentators as one of the two leading contenders for the presidency given the national spread of his party’s structures. The upshot if he were to win in February 2023 would be the untimely burial of power rotation as a concept in Nigerian politics. It is not hard to predict that Northern control of power for a further four or eight years would be deeply divisive – even if it doesn’t bring an end to the federation as we know it. 

Across the divide, APC’s Tinubu took the daring decision of picking someone of same faith as himself – former Borno State Governor, Kashim Shettima, as running mate. It was a move with historical parallels as the late Chief M. K. O. Abiola, running on the platform of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) thirty years ago, did the same by picking Babagana Kingibe. The supposedly taboo ticket would go on to win a famous victory.

Three decades later, arguing that the same formula was his best path to victory, Tinubu has taken a similar gamble. If he prevails in February, something fundamental would have have changed in Nigerian politics. It’s bad enough that we still have to worry about region and ethnicity, but sectarian meddling in the process would hopefully recede. This is the year when all of that happened; and it’s one we would never forget. 

That said, I wish you dear, esteemed readers and all of Nigeria, the best for the New Year – hoping it brings the new dawn we all truly desire.

One of the defining stories of the 2023 general election campaigns has been the festering rift within the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Despite all expectations, it remains a talking point two months into the season. Not much has changed, not much is likely to change and the party will most definitely go into the polls a divided house.

This isn’t a wish, merely what can be discerned from developments with the party. Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, and his contrarian band of G5 governors, or the Integrity Group as they would like to called going forward, have launched a parallel campaign structure that clearly has no room for the party’s national leadership and presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar.

All their campaign materials pointedly don’t carry the image of the former Vice President – only those of local contestants in the good books of the governors.

At the inauguration this past weekend of new Osun State Governor, Ademola Adeleke – who the PDP would be hoping can help them make inroads into the Southwest – the G5 were noticeably absent. Significantly, the no shows included Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, who up till then was the party’s only governor in the zone. They didn’t just stay away, there was no congratulatory message – an indication of the depth of division within the party.

There are no permanent foes in politics and the possibility of reconciliation at some point cannot be totally ruled out. Still, were peace to break out at this point, it will come with a bitter after taste. Even worse, significant damage has been done to party’s image and cohesion.

Sacrificing National Chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, would supposedly appease Wike and his group and get them back on board the campaign train.

But that very step could also polarise the ranks with many incensed at how the rebel governors have gone about their crusade. Some suggest that surrendering to the demands of the G5 would lead to loss of face and portray the leadership as spineless. Atiku has made the point that ousting Ayu would be akin to sacking a general in the heat of battle. This suggests that the differences are well-nigh irreconcilable at this point.

Aside the breakdown of trust and goodwill, the rhetoric coming from Wike has been extraordinarily incendiary – not the kind of talk of someone holding out for reconciliation. He has called Ayu corrupt and challenged him to sue over specific allegations levelled against him. It is inconceivable that the governor can ever subject himself to the leadership of an individual for whom he has so much contempt.

He has accused Atiku of lying and of being a sectional leader over the speech he made in Kaduna several weeks ago where he was captured saying that the North shouldn’t vote for candidates from the Southeast or Southwest. He didn’t just brand the PDP candidate parochial; he asked voters to reject him because of this. Can he now turn around to campaign for someone he has painted in such unflattering colours?

But it isn’t only the Atiku/Ayu axis that would fuming over the Rivers governor’s verbal missiles. His colleagues from other Niger Delta states wouldn’t have been too thrilled by his recent utterances. His revelation that they received billions of naira in 13% derivation refunds dating back to 1999 from President Muhammadu Buhari, must have had many shifting awkwardly in their seats.

Pointing to the numerous infrastructure projects he’s been commissioning, he challenged citizens of those states to ask their governors what they had done with the billions. Ever since, his colleagues have been making forced disclosures and justifications – certainly not the best way to foster solidarity within opposition ranks.

PDP’s core strategy for winning this election is based on prevailing in the North just like Buhari did in 2015 and 2019 and winning in its traditional strongholds of the Southeast and South-South. But not only has the political landscape been altered by unscripted developments, Atiku is also not Buhari – as each man projects a unique kind of appeal to different demographics within the electorate.

So, to assume that their electoral allegiance of their supporters can be transferred simply on account of ethnic identity is presumptuous. In fact, not much has happened over the last two months to show that we are about to witness a sea change in voting intentions across the region.

All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, even bragged at the weekend about retaining the support of his party’s governors – among them those from the North who delivered the ticket to him. This is unlike what’s going on in PDP with five or six governors whose loyalty Atiku cannot vouch for.

For APC, the game plan is simple: keep the North and Southwest and it wins again. To shore up its chances, it can work to improve its vote haul in the South-South and the Southeast with eyes on Ebonyi and Imo States.

Compared to the competition, its campaign has gone reasonably well – leaving the opposition to feed on scraps like the gaffes of the candidate or bad economic news from the incumbent administration. No doubt there are people within the party who may not be pleased with the status quo, but you certainly don’t have a Wike type insurgency playing out in its ranks.

This brings us to Peter Obi and the Labour Party (LP). Again, not much has changed in my assessment of his chances. In fact, the further we’ve gone into the campaign season, we’re beginning to see the earlier feverish excitement around his candidacy taper off under more intense interrogation of his pathway to power.

At a time when many in the Southeast elite have chosen to hold back their counsel about Obi’s chance out of a sense of regional solidarity, current Anambra State Governor, Chukwuma Soludo, hasn’t been so reticent. His recent dismissive piece about the Labour candidate produced predictably incandescent rage among his base.

But it doesn’t change the reality that his candidacy helps APC and hurts PDP given his close identification with that party. In any event, the ruling party doesn’t have to take the Southeast or South-South to retain power so long as it can hold on to the current power configuration in the Southwest and across the three Northern zones.

Now, matters have been taken out of Obi’s hands as he must run till the end whether he has a realistic chance of winning or not. To do otherwise would be to incur the wrath of a fan base who would not take kindly to being led on only to be abandoned midstream.

The New Nigerian Peoples Party’s (NNPP), Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, may as well be running to be president of Kano because that appears to be the only place many expect him to make an impression. But what shall profit a presidential hopeful to be a local champion and nationwide flop? Again, given his recent political journey, his continued presence in the race hurts PDP more than APC.

Kwankwaso’s campaign may not be capturing the imagination but he made a telling observation recently when he said any party that cannot win one or two out of Lagos, Rivers and Kano States cannot take the presidency. Presently, Rivers, hitherto PDP’s safe fishing grounds is unpredictable. The party is also not looking good in Kano and is increasingly enfeebled in Lagos where it could even be humiliated by Labour.

As the campaigns hit the midway stretch, some parties like APC would be hoping for more of the same, while the opposition would be praying for a change in fortunes or perhaps even a miracle in the form of a run-off. But so far that scenario looks more like a pipe dream rather than a realistic prospect.

This election cycle is fast shaping up as one of the most vicious in recent history. The mud is flying fast and thick. Hate speech is masquerading as public discourse. Bullying is par the course on social media if you hold views some disagree with. In certain parts, such is the terror at venturing opinions that many have clammed up.

But nothing captures the ugliness of the season more than the reckless resort to fake news by partisans. This is to be expected given that deployment of lies for achieving political ends has become a global phenomenon.

This pattern was already evident three years ago at the last general election leading to my piece titled ‘Life in the time of Fake News.’ The sentiments expressed in that article are even more relevant today. I argued back then:

“The lifespan of a lie can be quite elastic depending on how intricately it is woven. Some can be buried for years, but in the age of social media it can be brutally short.

“That is why I am often confused as to the motivations of purveyors of fake news who know they can be found out in a matter of minutes or hours. While the creators have their dubious agenda, those who spread the lies – especially online – probably do so with some advantage in mind.

“Desperate bloggers and website owners who want to attract traffic to their sites would push out the most sensational of stories without subjecting same to the most basic journalistic tests. The more excitable amongst us who get their thrills from spreading the latest tales, are only too glad to share same with the gullible hordes on social media. So what, on the surface, looks like a manifestation of extreme insanity, clearly has method to it.

“These days the internet has become a sea of lies: headlines lie, photos and videos tell even bigger lies. The wicked and mischievous can lift a photograph from five years ago and use it to drive a story in a similar context today. The reader would swear he saw the pictures with his own eyes until a rebuttal knocks him back to reality.

“Beginning with the election campaign that threw up Donald Trump as US president, fake news has become a multimillion dollar global industry relentlessly deployed for political ends. Nigerians, quick to pick up on global trends no matter how diabolical – have not been slow to jump on the bandwagon.”

With the benefit of hindsight many now credit the cynical use of fake news as a critical factor in Trump defeating then Democratic Party candidate, Hillary Clinton.

As the world came to terms with the new era of extreme polarization of politics and brazen acceptance of alternative facts, so also people became more adept at fighting the menace with rapid response fact-checking. That has limited, but not eliminated, the damage that can be done to a country’s democracy by the embrace of half truths, twisted facts and outright lies.

I suspect that desperate politicians and their supporters understand the devastating impact that faking could have at the coming general elections given the level of ignorance in the society. That’s why they keep at it despite knowing that sooner, rather than later, they would be found out.

However, a potential saving grace that could stunt the effect of fake news on the process is emerging voter inflexibility. Nigerians are usually passionate about everything – whether football, religion or politics. They didn’t wait for an official flag off before staking out their positions. Many have made up their minds who they are voting for. Indeed, anyone who hasn’t taken a position by now isn’t really interested in politics.

That’s why no amount of dirt or revelation is going to sway the typical Peter Obi supporter from backing him. It is the same thing with the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. His base is locked in and it is Jagaban till kingdom come.

You could make the same argument about those who have decided to vote for Atiku Abubakar and his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or for Rabiu Kwankwaso and his New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP).

That leaves an indeterminate number of undecided voters in play. But what do we know about them? Very little. We don’t know if they are students or young, first time voters. We don’t know if they are fair minded, just waiting to appraise what each candidate says he will do before making their voting decision. We don’t know whether this demographic is sufficiently large to sway things in one direction or the other in a close election.

What we do know is that some parties would do everything necessary to grab their votes – even if means descending into the sewer.

The hope of fake news promoters is that the electorate would be turned away from their rivals by the reek of scandal. But sometimes the reverse is achieved when their targets attract sympathy as lies are exposed.

This election cycle, the APC’s Tinubu has been the focus of the most vicious attacks, not because he has the most negatives. For every stone his opponents hurl at him, there’s enough ammunition to reply in kind. But it is understandable why he’s at the receiving end.

It’s a long-established tradition that front runners are always recipients of such attacks by rivals who want to rein them in and stop them from breaking away from the chasing pack. They only way to do so is by going negative.

Sometimes it works, many times it doesn’t. Trump was a candidate with a truckload of skeletons and scandals – everything from alleged rape and groping victims to dodgy lawyers who had turned on him. Yet, he beat everyone the establishment put up against him in his party and shocked Clinton on voting day. If being scandalized was the surest way of felling your foe, he would have been dead in his tracks from the beginning.

In 2023, Tinubu’s opponents think the best way to stop him is by digging into his past hoping to unearth some smoking gun. Others have embarked on the same enterprise over three decades with little to show for their exertions.

Even worse, attacking your opponents character and reputation relentlessly, doesn’t necessarily make your own candidacy more attractive or sellable. All it does sometimes is just put them permanently on display in the limelight.