The Nation Newspaper

Category: Festus Eriye

  • Kidnappings: Time for emergency action

    Kidnappings: Time for emergency action

    The brutal slaying of Nabeeha Al-Kadriyar, a 400-level student of Biological Sciences at Ahmadu Bello University (ABU), Zaria, by bandits who had abducted her entire family in Nigeria’s Federal Capital Territory (FCT), has the nation riveted.

    She was the daughter of Alhaji Mansoor Al-Kadriyar, a senior official of the National Population Commission (NPC) whose life was turned upside down last Friday after he and his six children were snatched by men in military fatigues.

    Their abductors released him to go source for ransom. Where they were asking for N60 million, they are now demanding N100 million, threatening to kill another child if their demand is not met. The merciless killing of Nabeeha shows the threat is credible.

    Let’s not forget that the ruthless gunmen also murdered Al-Kadriyar’s brother, Abdulfatai, after he led policemen to chase after them.

    For Oladosu Ariyo, a lawyer, his nightmare began on the night of Sunday, January 7, when kidnappers seized 11 residents of Sagwari Estate Layout in the Dutsen-Alhaji area of FCT. Four of them included his wife and their three children. Their abductors have since killed Folasade, his 13-year-old daughter, over his tardiness in raising ransom.

    These are just some of the latest and most disturbing kidnappings which have been enveloping the nation’s capital in slow burn fashion over the past few months. It is estimated that at least 15 persons were abducted in Abuja and surrounding areas in the first two weeks of 2024. Last year, there were over 50 incidents involving more than 300 victims.

    Read Also: We’ll embark on massive education effort to combat insecurity – Tinubu 

    What I find most troubling is not just the increasing number of kidnappers, but their viciousness. Typically, they use the threat of harm to pressure their victims’ families. But in the callous killing of the Al-Kadriyar and Ariyo children, we see a different kind of animal has entered the fray; one for whom human lives mean nothing.

    While the country has become accustomed to mass abductions in Northern states, there’s something unnerving about the rash of such incidents in the nation’s capital – which ordinarily should be a haven of peace and safety. You could argue that in the hinterland security resources are stretched thin; but you can’t say the same thing about the FCT. 

    Late in December 2023, Defence Headquarters gave an update on troops on operations across the country, indicating soldiers killed 8,256 terrorists and rescued 4,620 kidnap victims in the past year. Such statistics are supposed to project success, but they also underscore the gravity of the situation. Where nearly five thousand victims were freed, depend on it that there are thousands of perpetrators still roaming free.

    In one recent incident at Nahuta in Kaduna State, 100 gunmen reportedly overran a military post and then descended on the local community in an orgy of looting.

    In many parts of the North, communities have learnt to live with the reality of bandit rule – surrendering to their taxes and torture. Over the years the tolerance level has increased where there should have been zero tolerance. This slow but steady surrender is partly responsible for the audacious forays into the FCT.

    Nothing appears to be working against the criminals. Bombings have not had the desired effect. To complicate matters, the recent misfiring at Tudun Biri in Kaduna State means it’s an option that’s unlikely to used too frequently given the backlash when things go wrong.

    Some thought that the introduction of harsher punishment might do the trick. At least 10 states have introduced the death penalty or life imprisonment for the crime – among them Kano in the Northwest.  Unfortunately, the bandits didn’t take notice. Actually, it’s not the severity of punishment that deters, but that certainty that it will come. In Nigeria, there’s no guarantee that punishment will swiftly follow your crime. 

    How many of the kidnappers who abducted scores of students from secondary schools in Zamfara or from several tertiary institutions and the Bethel Secondary School in Kaduna State two years ago have been apprehended and prosecuted? In all of those cases ransom running into hundreds of millions was paid to criminals who rode off into the sunset to live happily ever after. Those watching on the sidelines saw practical evidence that crime pays with little or no consequence.

    It’s hard to see the ransom economy suffering a downturn any time soon because the establishment no longer makes any pretence about discouraging such payments. In the recent case of the unfortunate Al-Kadriyar family, we saw former Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Isa Pantami, trumpeting his role in raising money to free the abductees.

    Why would anyone give up a line of business that pays hundreds of millions of naira for a few days’ work? Indeed, most people freed by kidnappers were let go, not because of the efforts of security agencies, but through payment of cash.

    In office, Pantami championed the NIN-SIM linkage as a game-changer in the war against insecurity. A few days ago he was moaning about security agents not using his pet formula to track kidnappers and others – evidence no doubt that what works elsewhere isn’t guaranteed to work here.

    Yet, solutions must be found urgently to what has become an emergency. Not too long ago President Bola Tinubu warned that his government’s target of a $1 trillion economy was in danger of not being met because of widespread insecurity.

    For the situation to change there must first be an understanding of why kidnapping and banditry are thriving. This crime isn’t tied to any political struggle like was the case in Colombia. Available evidence shows it is linked to the state of the economy. The decline of the last ten years has been followed by a dramatic rise in abductions for ransom by criminal gangs.

    While the economy may be a may be a major factor, there’s need for caution. A significant proportion of Nigeria’s 200 million population lives under the poverty line. But not all have used that as justification for taking to kidnapping. In fact, given the ambitious sums demanded for ransom it is clear that this isn’t just about people struggling to put food on the table but organised, big crime syndicates at work.

    How long it would take to stabilise the economy is a matter of conjecture. So, if that’s the magic cure then we are headed for further uncertainty. Still, an improved economy is no guarantee that criminality would end.

    Widespread economy prosperity remains a longer term fix, but there are short term interventions that must be implemented without further delay.

    For one thing, a national security emergency must be declared. This shouldn’t be the typical ’emergency’ that’s been proclaimed in other areas with little to show. It must have a few simple, implementable steps.

    For instance, the classic interpretation of roles for the armed forces and different security agencies must be adjusted. If we accept that the traditional definition of armed conflict has evolved and that the nation is currently at war with enemies within, then walls around turf must be brought down. More troops should be inserted to take back our forests and rural areas.

    We are not facing any current external threats so the considerable resources of the armed forces can be deployed elsewhere. The thousands of policemen loafing around on major roads inspecting vehicle documents can be deployed to rural areas to protect remote communities.

    The president should give service chiefs six months ultimatum to stabilise the situation or be fired. During the American civil war, President Abraham Lincoln kept sacking commanding generals in the face of consistent reverses at the hands of the Southern confederacy until he found the whiskey-swilling Ulysses Grant who appeared to be the only one winning battles.

    His appointment marked a turnaround in the federal war effort to defeat the rebels and keep the United States one. It is time to ratchet up pressure on our plethora of security agencies because bandits and kidnappers killing and maiming people just miles from the seat of power is terrible optics.

    Ultimately, the reform of Nigeria’s policing structures is something that can no longer be delayed. What is happening in Abuja and large swathes of the Northwest and Northeast show that current policing resources are grossly inadequate for the security challenges of these times.

  • 2023: The year of Emefiele

    2023: The year of Emefiele

    Two of Nigeria’s leading newspapers – The Nation and Leadership – just chose President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as Person of the Year for 2023. In the tradition pioneered by the American news magazine Time in 1927, this award goes to “a person, a group, idea, or object that “for better or for worse… has done the most to influence the events of the year.”

    In most election years in the United States, whoever is elected president becomes the magazine’s Person of the Year. So, Tinubu’s selection by the aforementioned newspapers reflects the traditional pattern.

    But well before his election in February and inauguration on May 29, there was a powerful individual whose actions had the potential to influence the outcome of the general elections and impact the economic wellbeing of millions of Nigerians. His name is Godwin Emefiele, former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

    There are different ways to measure how much progress a country is making. You could look at the GDP, how many people are living below the poverty line, literacy level, state of public infrastructure and so on.

    Another way is to examine the conduct of people in public office. This is especially important given our history that speaks largely of incompetence, mismanagement and corruption. Emefiele’s actions earlier this year exemplified much that is wrong Nigeria – impunity and decay of institutions.

    Late in 2022, the CBN served notice that it would introduce new designs for certain naira denominations and set a date in January 2023 for which this task must be accomplished. The initial excuse for the action was that the bulk of the nation’s cash was floating outside the system. The swap was supposed to vacuum all of that money back into bank vaults.

    But as we would all soon learn there was more to it than economics. In reality, it was a move designed to frustrate certain political figures who the then administration felt had stockpiled an unbelievable amount of naira for vote-buying.

    While the desire of having an electoral process that wasn’t compromised by cash was laudable, the currency swap was not only ill-timed, its execution was disastrous. There was a stampede to returned old notes with very few new ones to replace them.

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    ATM’s were empty; banking halls became battles zones. We were told to go cashless using online transfers. The problem was most banks lacked the infrastructure to support this. It was the perfect Nigerian nightmare produced and directed by Emefiele.

    If the fallout from the naira redesign fiasco was just about inconvenience, it would have been pardonable. There were more deadly consequences. People actually died as result of inability to access cash for treatment of their loved ones. Many small businesses shut down and as of today no one really knows how much was lost to this hare-brained scheme.

    Such was the degree of suffering that at its height, Professor Wole Soyinka, accused the former CBN governor of crimes against humanity. Speaking on Channels Television, he blamed then President Muhammadu Buhari for enabling him.

    “Emefiele has committed a crime against humanity, over and beyond even any electoral mago mago (foul play),” Soyinka said.

    “He struck at the heart of the subsisting survival principles, minimal needs and entitlements of the ordinary people in the street.

    “Don’t bully me. Don’t take my voice away. Don’t take my economic potential away, my economical entitlements. Don’t throw me on the mercy of sadists like Emefiele.”

    Despite the well-documented chaos in the banking system, despite mass suffering, the government of the day and CBN chief pressed on regardless. It was as if their actual goal was to allow things fester until there was a countrywide breakdown of law and order that would have necessitated the postponement of elections – just to prevent a feared outcome.

    Initially, it sounded like a conspiracy theory but, in reality, the nation was sleepwalking into a constitutional crisis. That was until elements within the All Progressives Congress (APC) woke up with a start. What followed was the curious situation of three ruling party governors dragging the Buhari federal government before the Supreme Court.

    That was not all. Speaking at a campaign stop in Abeokuta, Ogun State, APC presidential candidate Tinubu denounced the currency swap which he alleged was targeted at him. He declared defiantly that even if fuel taps were shut and all naira notes locked away, the nation would vote and he would be elected. The rest is history.

    The passage of time hasn’t lessened the intrigue around the currency swap. In a recent interview Buhari claimed credit for authoring the redesign. He wanted to ensure his “integrity was unquestionable.” But in the last week leaked portions of the report of Jim Obazee, Special Investigator probing the CBN, suggested the former president’s aide, Tunde Sabiu, may have been the driving force.

    What is clear is that but for the intervention of the apex court, nothing would have moved Emefiele and the forces behind him to change course. Nigeria’s saving grace was that the government stopped short of openly defying the Supreme Court.

    Emefiele has been a very unique CBN governor, and not necessarily because he was good at the job. A former Deputy Governor of the bank, Kingsley Moghalu, reacting to the Obazee report leaks, made these withering comments in a lengthy X post: “My views on Emefiele’s performance as CBN Governor have been a matter of record even when many now opining on the matter of his performance on the job were mute.”

    “He is, without debate, the worst and most damaging Central Bank Governor in Nigeria’s history – incompetent and ill-prepared for the role, and from all available information from his actions, doubtlessly severely challenged with integrity.”

    But what makes him special goes beyond questions of competence and integrity. Rather, this country has never seen a CBN governor with such overt political ambitions. First, it was whispered, and then it grew into a loud murmur that Emefiele was interested in succeeding Buhari as president.

    He did nothing to squelch the rumours, offering only equivocal responses. A so-called ‘Friends of Emefiele’ group which visited him in February to discuss the 2023 presidential contest, quoted him as saying “he would leave his fate firmly in the hands of God” with regards to choice of the leadership of the country.

    It was a response that sparked widespread outrage, with many demanding he resign to concentrate on his political ambitions. Just to show that he and his backers could no longer wait for God, the media soon discovered a plot in Abuja chock full of branded ‘Emefiele for President’ campaign vehicles.

    It was also revealed that as sitting CBN governor he had registered as a member of APC in his ward in Delta State. It was unprecedented

    But despite crossing the line so brazenly, despite compromising his position with political exposure, his boss in Aso Rock saw nothing so untoward as to require his sacking. That, again, made the man special.

    As the year winds to a close, Emefiele is dominating the headlines again. The allegations in the leaked Obazee report are so grave and mindboggling that we would be listening to his explanations either through press statements or from the dock for much of the coming year.

    Everyone who lived through January and February in Nigeria would remember the period as the time when the naira pulled a disappearing trick with a little help from the then CBN boss. After a short respite, the onset of the festive season with the ongoing cash crunch shows that the spirit of Emefiele is still upon us. The man didn’t walk alone and he clearly didn’t work alone. For the terrible fallout of his actions throughout this year, he is the Alternate Person of the Year.

  • Gumi and his chorus line

    Gumi and his chorus line

    There’s a certain tendency among the Nigerian elite whose only formula for relevance is hammering on our ethnic and religious fault lines. For them no disaster or tragedy is too grievous to be exploited for diabolical ends.

    No surprise therefore that the killing by the army in Tudun Biri, Igabi Local Government Area of Kaduna State, of over 120 innocent citizens in a drone attack, has seen them crawling out of the woodwork in their numbers.

    This latest incident has triggered widespread anger and soul-searching given that it’s not the first. Ali Ndume, senator representing Borno South Senatorial District at the National Assembly, says they have happened 16 times with a death toll of 485.

    In any time or clime people would demand answers for such a calamity. The Nigeria Army insists the bombing was not intentional. While many are inclined to believe them given that there’s no logical reason why villagers in some remote part of Kaduna State would be deliberately targeted for elimination, there’s a sense of frustration that the military haven’t learnt any lessons from past incidents.

    This could be down to the fact that consequences were non-existent. Who was held to account? What was the punishment? The establishment just went its merry way, probably arguing that these things happen.

    In some countries heads would roll because of the monumental embarrassment and shock this has caused to the system. We may yet see people pay a price for incompetence or errors of judgement given that President Bola Tinubu has vowed to punish those found culpable.

    While reasonable demands for answers keep pouring in, we are also seeing an orchestrated effort by the usual suspects to fill the void with insane and dangerous conspiracy theories that can destabilise the country unless there’s pushback. 

    For instance, controversial cleric Sheikh Ahmad Gumi, has categorically stated that the bombing wasn’t an error. Delivering his weekly sermon at the Sultan Bello Mosque, Kaduna, he argued that if the first bomb dropped on the people was a mistake, the second that targeted those evacuating the bodies 30 minutes later – as claimed by the villagers – couldn’t be described as such.

    He said: “I kept telling you not to invite people who see war as a solution but people refused to listen. Here it’s now. War is never a joke because it affects everybody. I warned you on this but you keep saying they should be killed.

    “It’s you that will be killed. That bomb was meant to target the families of some people so as to kill their children and wives.”

    His suggestion is that victims were targeted because of who they were – ordinary Muslims out on a religious procession. The allegation that the bombing had sinister religious or ethnic undertones is a weighty one to make – especially when not backed up by any evidence other than one’s extreme assumptions.

    Trotting out the same sectarian drivel, was former Executive Secretary of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), Prof. Usman Yusuf, who found a way to link the tragedy to the outcome of the 2023 presidential election, military postings and even fallout from the coup in Niger Republic.

    In an interview on Arise TV, he argued that the President and Vice President were both Muslims, yet Muslims in the North were still being killed.

    He stated: “Our people in the North are saying you are killing Muslims, inflicting a lot more pain on Muslims. You closed the borders along all the seven Northern states because you want to go to war with Niger. You are inflicting pain. Look at the military hierarchy, people are being mischievous. Look at the operational military hierarchy and look at their religion. The military needs to be very careful and start doing damage control fast.’’

    The professor’s outburst suggests that in the last eight years when Muhammadu Buhari – a Muslim was president – Muslims were not killed in conflict situations across the North, or that borders in different parts of the country were not shut. In fact, the point was made that while they were firmly closed down South, up North they were only so in name.

    Another contributor to the debate, a Sokoto-based Islamic teacher, Sheikh Muhammad Yabo, bemoaned the fact that error bombings happened only in the North, without a single one occurring down South. Wow! I know of quota and federal character requirements in our statutes, but I wasn’t aware they also applied to human tragedies.

    Read Also: Kaduna bombing: Tinubu’s daughter visits victims, donates N5m to injured survivors

    One of the more interesting interventions was from a former Special Assistant on Digital Communications to Buhari, Bashir Ahmad. He posted this on his X handle: “Haba! You can’t kill 126 innocent souls – a hundred and twenty-six civilians, and just call it a mistake. I can’t even remember a time when the troops killed such a number of terrorists anywhere in this country at once.”

    The internet never forgets they say. So people swiftly reminded him of his tweet dated January 18, 2017 in which he announced: “A presidential delegation led by COS, Abba Kyari, will today visit Rann, Borno, where NAF accidently bombed a civilian community yesterday.”

    That error air strike in a town hosting thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs) left 126 dead – among them aid workers and refugees. One estimate by Médecins Sans Frontières put the toll at 170, others say as many as 236 died.

    Aside foreign groups like Human Rights Watch and the like, not many remember vociferous cries of condemnation from those who are now vocally condemning “the killing of Northerners.”

    One of the biggest tragedies to have befallen Nigeria is the mismanagement of the Boko Haram sect in its infancy, and the subsequent killing of its founder, Mohammed Yusuf, in murky circumstances. Those actions laid the foundation for the transformation of a local irritant into an insurgency that has ravaged the Northeast and destroyed its economy in the last decade. The bungling was pulled off by an administration headed by a Northerner, Umaru Yar’Adua.

    The violence by Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) is estimated to have killed more than 35,000 people between 2009 and 2020. But in a 2021 report, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), put the total number of those killed at nearly 350,000 – ten times higher.

    All of these losses were incurred in the North. Some of those fatalities occurred when suicide bombers deliberately targeted mosques. Not much was heard from Gumi and his fellow regional and religious champions about the atrocities. It’s almost like they are saying: ‘it is okay when we are in charge and killing ourselves, but not so when someone else is calling the shots.’

    That tells me their bitter, hypocritical venting is driven more by petty grievances over loss of privilege and advantage than genuine compassion for the victims of Tudun Biri.

    While we are asking how much longer the military can continue making these avoidable errors, we should also be querying how long the country can continue to humour ethnic and religious extremists whose only agenda is to further divide us.

    When Gumi is not attacking President Tinubu for appointing Nyesom Wike – a Southerner and Christian – Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister (as if the position was exclusively reserved for his region), he’s making the case for coddling of bandits in the Northwest who think nothing of slaughtering scores of hapless villagers, or setting their dwellings ablaze for failing to pay protection levies.

    His extreme and inflammatory rhetoric has gone on for long enough. It’s time more people said to him: enough is enough.

    Thankfully, the greater percentage of the elite don’t subscribe to his ideas. Some of them have taken practical steps to show compassion to the victims. Senators have donated their December salaries. The Northern Caucus of the House of Representatives, many individuals and groups have committed to giving millions to the devastated community. What has Gumi and his chorus line done for the people he claims to love so much beyond mischievous fault-finding?

  • That Kaduna drone disaster

    That Kaduna drone disaster

    One thing that war is guaranteed to deliver is collateral damage – be it of property or persons. It doesn’t make it less of a shock when that expected loss of lives becomes reality.

    On the night of Sunday, December 3, over 80 people gathered for the celebration of Maulud (birthday of the Prophet Muhammad) on a field in Tudun Biri, a village in the Igabi community of Kaduna State, became the unintended victims of a drone strike targeted at bandits by the Nigerian Army.

    Local emergency services claim to have buried 85 corpses, but Amnesty International projects that the fatalities could be as high as 120. On any given day this massive waste of lives ranks as a national calamity. It is also a morale-draining embarrassment for the military in its long-drawn battle against diverse manifestations of insecurity across the country.

    Army spokesperson, Brigadier General Onyema Nwachukwu, said soldiers had observed the gathering of worshippers and wrongly analysed their activities as similar to those of bandits, prompting the drone strike.

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    While it is clear that the military couldn’t have intentionally targeted innocent civilians for such large scale devastation, incidents like this have become a common occurrence in the last five or six years.

    In January this year, there was one in Nasarawa State where the military was accused of misfiring at unarmed civilians during air raids. Over thirty people were said to have died in that instance. After initial denials followed by a six-month silence, the Nigerian Air Force (NAF) finally admitted responsibility for the fatal error.

    The United States-based organisation Human Rights Watch claims a senior commander acknowledged the January 24 airstrike in Kwatiri, Doma Local Government Area of Nasarawa, was part of an intelligence-driven operation against suspected terrorists. But other reports identified the victims of the airstrike as cattle herders with no links to terror.

    In 2017, the Air Force erroneously bombed an Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camp in Rann, Borno State, killing more than 70 and injuring over 120.

    These are a few notorious examples due to the large scale loss of lives. There may have been others with fewer fatalities that never arrested the imagination of the country. But irrespective of the body count, such bloody mistakes raise serious questions as to the utility of these bombings in what is largely asymmetric conflict in parts of the North.

    The bandits troubling large swathes of the Northwest are in no position to go toe-to-toe with Nigeria’s conventional forces. They know that and have instead adopted and adapted methods that have kept them in the game for nearly a decade. They live amongst the people in rural communities and use them as shields when necessary; they melt into the surrounding forests at the slightest scent of the military. Their preferred vehicles for transportation and operation are motorcycles versatile in urban and jungle terrain.

    That their numbers keep multiplying after all these years, so much so that the only solution that appears viable to contain them is carpet bombing, is an admission that the military hasn’t found a remedy for this unconventional foe. It is a dilemma that isn’t limited to Nigeria’s armed forces but one faced by even more powerful armies around the globe.

    The United States, rated as having the most powerful military in modern times, was forced to exit the likes of Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq by inferior forces using effective guerrilla methods. The equally mighty Russian army backed out ignominiously out of the same Afghanistan when it couldn’t impose its will on local forces. But somehow the historic lessons from those encounters seem not to have seeped through to us.

    I can understand why carpet bombing of terrorists may be an attractive short term option. Ideally, it is something that when driven by quality intelligence can sufficiently degrade the criminals, buying the authorities sufficient time to deploy long term solutions. Unfortunately, we’ve have been seduced into believing we are going to bomb our way out of insecurity – especially in Northern Nigeria.

    Two years ago, when bandits laid siege to many Northwest states, carrying out mass abductions in secondary schools and universities, then Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, was a vocal advocate of bombing the bandits to smithereens. He was not alone. Many influential voices, among them religious leaders across the divide, felt salvation lay in aerial military action given that the locations of the terrorists were well-known. Sadly, it is in his domain that the downside of this approach has now manifested.

    At that point, so much was made of how Super Tucano fighter jets which the Federal Government had just acquired would be game changers in the battle not just against bandits, but also in the longer war against Boko Haram and ISWAP in the Northeast.

    The only snag was that the aircraft suppliers specified conditions under which the jets could be used – to prevent them being abused to suppress internal opposition. To create wiggle room, the then Muhammadu Buhari administration triggered a national debate about rebranding bandits as terrorists so as to bring them into the jets’ crosshairs.

    So many sorties after, it is now evident that it would take more than just bombings, change of nomenclature, to banish bandits and terrorists. This is not to say, that air strikes haven’t had an effect. Anyone who tracks these things would admit we are far from the crisis points of 2021 and 2023, but nowhere close to Eldorado.

    In the aftermath of the Igabi incident, the nation has been plunged into soul-searching. President Bola Tinubu has ordered an investigation of a disaster he described as disturbing. Kaduna State Governor, Uba Sani, convened a stakeholders meeting to address the situation and prevent a recurrence.

    These are standard interventions which provide a sense of calm and create the impression something is being done. There would be financial compensation for families that have lost loved ones and the affected communities. But none of these things would restore the lives than have been lost. What is most important is ensuring that lessons are learnt and these tragic cycles are not revisited.

    No one needs any special investigation to know that at the root of the Igabi disaster was a failure of intelligence. These things happen in war. Sometimes lives are lost to friendly fire. But such calamities become unacceptable when they are repeated.

    Some estimates put the number of those killed in these bombing errors in the last seven years at well over 300. Is that an acceptable price for the progress that has been made in the war against insecurity? I doubt it.

    Airstrikes cannot be totally excluded from the options available to the military. But they must be sure of what they are doing before taking actions that have potentially deadly consequences; ones that may ultimately set them back in the pursuit of their wider objectives.

    More importantly, military thinkers must not stop looking for other solutions for fighting an enemy that has shown a frustrating ability to absorb all that has been thrown at it. Perhaps, it is time to deploy more ground troops into this theatre until it is relatively pacified.

    In the search for answers, there would be calls for people to take responsibility for their actions or inactions that led to the massive loss of lives. But in doing so, everything must be done not to inflame the situation or dampen the morale of the military.

    It is easy to be critical but this national tragedy shouldn’t be politicised. Under these circumstances we should rather wrap the flag around ourselves, seeking ways to defeat a common enemy. Everything shouldn’t be about scoring points in the court of public opinion.

  • There goes Obasanjo again! 

    There goes Obasanjo again! 

    Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has a special knack for hogging the headlines. When he is not playing kingmaker, he is openly scolding traditional rulers – demanding respect. At other times, he’s posturing as some intellectual power house.

    He was at it again this week, declaring that liberal democracy has failed across Africa because it was imposed by colonialists. To replace the ‘failed system’ he proposed something called ‘Afro democracy’. 

    All the theorising was at an event held at his Presidential Library in Abeokuta, Ogun State on Monday. The theme was ‘Rethinking Western Liberal Democracy for Africa.’

    The central point of his argument was that democracy as a system of government has failed to deliver on the welfare and well-being of all the people of the continent because it wasn’t conceived here. He equally questioned whether it sufficiently addresses representation for not just the majority, but also the minority.

    For starters, this novel idea was unveiled at the Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library Complex. This is not an original Nigerian or African concept. Rather it is something copied from the United States where foundations build such facilities for former leaders at locations of their choice. This shows an idea can’t be all bad just because of its source, otherwise Obasanjo wouldn’t have that grand platform to pontificate from . 

    There’s something rather suspicious about these proposals given their timing. For one, they come rather late in the day for the man and his continent. From 1976 to 1979, he was a military dictator superintending a transition to democratic rule. In that period he oversaw a Constituent Assembly for writing a new constitution and elections that ushered in the Second Republic. From 1999 to 2007, the Western Democracy he now despises enthroned him as civilian President.

    Secondly, to suggest that democracy has failed to deliver a better quality of life across Africa is something of a wild generalisation. Perhaps, the former general should stick to drawing such conclusions about his own country which he was privileged to rule twice – the second time under democratic settings where he had every opportunity to make a difference.

    Up till 2014 Obasanjo had no problems with the type of democracy practiced in Nigeria because his stock remained fairly high with those who held the levers of power. But his alienation began with the Goodluck Jonathan administrabreaking free from his suffocating yoke. His exile from the power sanctums would be exacerbated over the next eight with the All Progressives Congress’ (APC) Muhammadu Buhari. Now, he faces a longer exile with President Bola Tinubu at the helm. 

    Could his increasing irrelevance, as well as his failed bid to make Labour Party’s Peter Obi president, be responsible for this new campaign to junk the system of governance we are only getting used to? 

    Obasanjo said at the Abeokuta event: “The weakness and failure of liberal democracy as it is practised stem from its history, content, context, and practice.

    “Once you move from all the people to representatives of the people, you start to encounter troubles and problems. For those who define it as the rule of the majority, should the minority be ignored, neglected, and excluded?

    “In short, we have a system of government in which we have no hands to define and design, and we continue with it even when we know that it is not working for us.

    “Those who brought it to us are now questioning the rightness of their invention, its deliverability, and its relevance today without reform.”

    Read Also: Democracy not working for Africa because it was forced on it, says Obasanjo

    Like anything developed by man, liberal democracy has its flaws and failings. But it’s suitability as a system of governance cannot be judged simply because it didn’t originate here. If our desire is that our people have a better life, then it can be argued that this system is much better than what existed before. 

    Our history is chock full of empires and kingdoms ruled with iron fists by monarchs. The people in many such places were just serfs and property to be sold into slavery for something as cheap as alcohol. These overlords were accountable to no one. Even the poorest example of democratic rule today provides for day-to-day accountability in governance and ultimately through elections at regular intervals. 

    Across the continent millions have been delivered from these forms of strongman rule. Today, they have the right to vote leaders of their choice and not have someone lord it over them. Surely our former maximum ruler can’t be proposing we reintroduce some authoritarian flavour into what we have now?

    The ‘Afro democracy’ Obasanjo just dreamt up suggests that there is something inherently different about Africans that makes Western democracy ill-suited to them. Whatever it is he doesn’t say. He doesn’t tell us what would be retained or dumped from the original and what would be introduced in the new hybrid. But truth is, only democracy in its purest form can be used to harmoniously manage the ethnically diverse countries in Africa.

    So, rather than nitpicking and concluding that our problems are down to the system of governance alone, I would suggest our troubles are caused by the managers of our democracy. Obasanjo, for instance, makes an interesting case study. 

    A man conveyed into office a second time by the constitution and elections, tried his level best while in power to subvert that same constitution. On his watch minorities in states assemblies – Plateau and Oyo – executed dodgy impeachments of sitting government with the security agencies providing cover and Obasanjo looking the other way. In both instances, the judiciary – armed with the power to check an overreaching Executive  – overturned the illegality.

    The great advocate of ‘Afro democracy’ was scheming again as the end of his second term drew near. Rather than respect the constitutional limit, he began plotting a third term. It was the Nigerian Senate – empowered under our democratic constitution to rein in a rogue executive – that shot down his illegal maneuver. 

    After being frustrated, he grudgingly started executing the transition by imposing candidates on his party. He hounded his Vice President Atiku Abubakar out of PDP and imposed Umaru Yar’Adua as candidate. The same individual who should have been statesmanly in ensuring better levels of governance and politicking, gleefully declared that the 2007 general elections were a “do or die affair.”

    Democracy is not our problem, rather we have issues with those assigned to manage it. Any system that guarantees voting rights, regular and transparent elections, checks and balances in governance, independent judiciary and free press would ultimately deliver a better quality of life for the people, notwithstanding whether it originated from the North or South Poles. 

    Any system can be used to deliver improved economic conditions for the people where there is vision. The monarchs of the UAE conjured today’s Dubai out of what used to be a desert in fifty years. Although they were despots, South Korea’s Park Chung Hee and Indonesia’s Suharto transformed their countries. What was Obasanjo’s enduring vision for Nigeria or Africa? 

    When it comes to governing people, he won’t reinvent the wheel with ‘Afro democracy’?. Our problem in Nigeria and in large parts of Africa is impatience. We keep amending constitutions we have barely had time to implement. After the First Republic we dumped the Westminster model thinking it was the wrong fit. Thirty four years after adopting the American presidential model, we are being seduced for another wild goose chase. 

    If only Obasanjo’s proposal was driven by altruism it would been worth the time of day. But this just sounds like another attempt to discredit whatever is on the ground because he doesn’t control it. It’s just like his erstwhile deputy Atiku proposing a six-year single presidential term after losing the last elections. All these grand proposals are just about the selfish concerns of those making them. They are not the things bothering the average man in Lagos or Luanda. 

  • Ajaero’s Labour pains

    Ajaero’s Labour pains

    For the past five months, the threat of a strike by the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) has hung over the new government and country like the Sword of Damocles. At 12.00 midnight on Monday the union carried out its threat. 

    Usually, such strikes are executed in pursuit of workers’ welfare. But this is a peculiar action called not because earnings have been eroded by hyper inflation, or as a result of delay in unveiling a new minimum wage. A shutdown is happening because NLC President Joe Ajaero was set upon by a band of thugs at Owerri airport – leaving him with a black eye.

    Ajaero by reason of his position as Congress’ leader has a place In the pantheon of VIPs in Nigeria. So, for him to have been assaulted and dragged on the floor by unknown roughnecks, as he has reported, was shocking. Not only was he bruised physically, his ego as head of the nation’s main trade union was battered. In a sense also, the institutional ego of the almighty NLC was affected.

    Not surprisingly, its response to the manhandling of its leader was a recourse to the nuclear option – a nationwide strike. Such an action should ordinarily be a weapon of last resort. Deploying it over this matter shows how stunned Labour leaders were by the development.

    The immediate trigger to the assault was the decision of Ajaero and his union to visit Imo, ground activities across the state, ostensibly because workers were owed 30 months salaries. This claim was vigorously denied by the state government which promptly secured a court injunction stopping the planned action. Labour would not be deterred; they pushed ahead in defiance of the judicial restriction.

    The NLC claims thugs who beat Ajaero were supervised by a certain aide of Governor Hope Uzodimma who, interestingly, has a portfolio designated “Special Duties.” What followed the rumble at the airport is still mired in confusion. The union leader says after the assault, he was handed to the police. Initial reports claim he was arrested. The cops insist they only took him into protective custody to prevent his lynching by an angry mob.

    But why would the visit of a union leader to lead protests over unpaid salaries stir up such passions? It was scheduled just days to the governorship election in which the NLC’s client Labour Party was a major participant. Imo also happens to be Ajaero’s home state. The conclusion on the part of the government was that the supposed protest was just a brazen intervention to tilt the poll outcome in favour of his allies. 

    As the union cried for justice over the attack on its leader, there were two important reactions. Governor Uzodimma went on television shortly before the election to wash his hands off the assault. He said even if the beating was meted out to a lesser personage he would have been displeased. It was an expression of sympathy that fell short of an apology. 

    A few days later, Inspector General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun, ordered an investigation into the the incident. But these interventions were not enough to mollify the NLC which clearly wanted more. But what is more? Perhaps President Bola Tinubu censuring Uzodimma? Would the arrest and prosecution of the ‘Special Duties Adviser’ who allegedly oversaw the assault have sufficed? Perhaps some imaginative punishment for the Commissioner of Police would have done the trick. 

    The Owerri incident is a prime example of the bloated expectations of the powerful in Nigeria. They expect special treatment and when that is not forthcoming, they attack institutions. The incident at the Imo State capital was a local one and the perpetrators were locals. The options for redress should logically be local. 

    Since the NLC leader and his associates are not in doubt as to those behind the attack, they could have initiated legal action against them – whether they are governors, police, Special Advisers or thugs. To declare a national strike over this local assault is to mismatch crime and punishment. To use your Congress in this way to exact revenge is abuse of power.

    To drag in the Federal Government is to perpetuate something very wrong in this country, where the president has to get involved in every little matter: he has to order an investigation if a couple has a domestic falling out in Enugu, or a local government chairman and his governor are at daggers drawn in Bauchi. This country doesn’t have to revolve round the office of the president.

    Between the abortive Imo protests and the current strike, the NLC leadership hasn’t come out smelling of roses. It marched into Owerri nonchalantly disregarding an existing court order. It has now embarked on its strike disobeying another injunction stopping it from doing so. In Nigeria everybody is a law unto themselves. They obey what laws they choose to and justify their lawlessness by pointing to some other person’s recklessness. 

    The grand hypocrisy of it all is that organizations like the NLC are always quick to preach about the rule of law. They claim to want a better society where things are done in an orderly fashion, yet have embarked on an action that diminishes the judiciary as an institution. 

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    If governments in the past have been caught ignoring the courts, we don’t have to join them in the gutter of disobedience. There’s a higher moral ground for those willing to climb up there. But in embarking on the path it has chosen, the union is no better than the thugs who took the law into their own hands by beating Ajaero.

    As things stand NLC has taken a calculated gamble with the timing of its action. It comes at a period when millions across the country are struggling economically. For them daily income is vital for survival. Can they afford to join the union in their indefinite flight of fancy? 

    There’s nothing novel about calling such strikes. What the current Labour leaders should ask their predecessors is sustainability of the action. We may just be seeing a situation where union leaders are disconnected from average workers who just want to get on with their lives with minimal disruptions.

    The objective of this strike is so nebulous that it verges on the ridiculous. The union says the walk-off would continue “until governments at all levels are alive to their responsibilities.” At what point would this landmark have been attained? What are the indices for making this judgment? More importantly, who appointed the NLC assessors of government performance?

    For a young administration battling economic turbulence and trying to find its balance, a national strike is bad news. It would be under pressure to restore normalcy. But how it does that would determine how it would be perceived going forward. Will it bend in the face of every pressure or stand its ground as indication it won’t be pushed around? It is the NLC today, but there are other groups and interests just waiting to test the government’s will. The coming hours and days would be very revealing.

  • Nigeria’s opposition parties and the future 

    Nigeria’s opposition parties and the future 

    Peter Obi, candidate of Labour Party (LP) at the February 25, 2023 elections, finally weighed in on the Supreme Court verdict that dismissed his appeal. He, like Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) flag-bearer, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s, insists the justices did a terrible job.

    It’s hard to know if Obi truly believes he won the same election Atiku also claims to have won. He does accept that with the judgment he has exhausted all legal remedies and committed himself to rebuilding LP and nurturing his Obidient Movement. Those are the moves of a man planning to fight another day. 

    His intervention, together with Atiku’s before him, provide a canvass for looking at the immediate future of Nigeria’s opposition parties. The omens are not too bright, unfortunately.

    That’s not good for the country because to further entrench democratic culture, we need thriving opposition parties. But their future can only be guaranteed when they stand for something; when they are seen as credible governing alternatives to the ruling party. As it is, there’s not much that separates the four largest parties in the land.

    Perhaps, what hampers the opposition most today is fragmentation. It was the reason PDP held power for 16 years and could have gone on for much longer, if their rivals had not become wise in 2014 and pooled their resources under APC. 

    What we are witnessing is a return to the scenario in 1999 when PDP had rock solid national spread, while its opponents were scattered in weak groups like All Peoples Party (APP), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Alliance for Democracy (AD) and so on.

    Today, the likelihood of opposition parties coming together to form a broad-based entity to challenge the ruling party is extremely remote because of the dueling ambitions and egos of their leaders. 

    Despite a record 30-year run of defeats, Atiku has signaled he will give it another go in four years. But it is clear that governors who control his party may not be invested in that project. Their relatively temperate reaction to the Supreme Court judgment stood beside Atiku’s burn-down-the-barn remarks like night and day. 

    As I argued last week, Atiku has shown through his brief flirtation with the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in the past, that he would gladly run on another platform if he’s denied the ticket in 2027. This would further fragment what used to be the locked-in PDP vote. 

    One of the big stories of the 2023 general election was the performance of LP. Credit for this is often ascribed to Obi. Still, his popularity didn’t get him the ultimate prize because he failed at a crucial hurdle. To win the presidential election you need a platform that can prevail in four of the nation’s six political zones. His party fell far short of this requirement.

    This, despite the fact that the opposition were offered an electoral environment tailor-made for defeating the ruling party. In the run-up to the polls the Muhammadu Buhari administration inexplicably embarked on the suicidal naira swap that starved the country of badly-needed cash. Coupled with long-drawn fuel scarcity, an enraged populace were primed to punish APC and its candidate. 

    There were other factors that contributed to Obi’s performance that were unique to this particular poll. They may not be there next time or may not generate the same emotional pull. 

    For instance, not since M. K. O. Abiola ran with Babagana Kingibe in 1993 has the polity been so divided over religious balancing. The same-faith Tinubu-Kashim Shettima ticket drained support for the ruling party in large swathes of the Middle-Belt and the predominantly- Christian South.

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    If the Islamisation scare doesn’t become reality before 2027, then religion would have been seriously defanged as a political factor and may not be as helpful to Obi when he runs again. 

    And run, he’s certain to do. He has served notice of his intention to rebuild LP. That shuts down the hopes of those dreaming he would return to PDP – offering them a better shot at wresting power from APC. 

    But he has his work cut out for him. His lopsided vote in his home region and anaemic performance in several others, is now his biggest albatross. He emerged more as a regional project than a national messiah. How he’s going to achieve an image makeover that presents him as anything other an ethnic or religious champion, would be interesting to watch. 

    Obi’s major problem is his limited appeal. What he needs going forward is to broaden the scope of his acceptability. If he’s hoping to achieve that using his Obidients, then he just tripped getting out of the blocks. During the campaigns this movement didn’t make him too many friends. Their readiness to deploy any tactic, no matter how low to further their cause, was a turn-off to many voters. That’s just unfortunate because no one ever became president with a narrow base. 

    Yes, he did well with the youth demographic but even this must be put in context. In February, he ran against Tinubu and Atiku who were 70 and above, Rabiu Kwankwaso was within touching distance of the duo age-wise. For younger voters, Obi was, therefore, the youngest on parade. In four years time he would be 66 – hardly the convincing poster boy as youth representative. 

    To make matters more interesting, Tinubu has stolen his thunder with a cabinet chock full of people in their 30s and 40s. Such has been his enthusiasm for infusing young blood into the system that he even sparked an uproar when he briefly appointed the 24-year-old Ibrahim Kashim-Imam chairman of the Federal Emergency Road Maintenance Agency (FERMA) board. 

    Up North, the fragmentation continues with Kwankwaso’s NNPP. His hopes of building a third or fourth force are dangling by a fragile judicial thread. If the courts rule against his party in the Kano gubernatorial contest, then he’s cooked. Such a loss in his lone stronghold can only strengthen APC going into future contests. 

    Clearly, in Nigerian politics the more things change the more they remain the same. In the Second Republic, Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), Chief Nnamdi Azikiwe’s  Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP) and others, couldn’t challenge the behemoth National Party of Nigeria (NPN) because of their failure to sacrifice their ambitions for a larger goal. 

    It is the same story today. If political structures remain as they are going into the next elections, power won’t change hands – and it won’t be because of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) manipulation or judicial sleight of hand. 

  • Atiku’s miscalculations

    Atiku’s miscalculations

    Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) at the February 2023 general elections, fancies himself a democrat. Unfortunately, he lacks the qualities of those who can be so described. 

    The 19th century American philosopher Williams James described the ‘democratic temperament’ as comprising ‘a willingness to act, the placing of public good ahead of private comfort, generosity toward one’s opponents, and mutual respect among citizens of different viewpoints, races, genders, classes, and religions.’

    I would add that a democrat accepts that electoral contests can only have two outcomes – win or lose. They respect rules, conventions and don’t set out to destroy institutions which are constitutionally mandated to manage these contests or adjudicate when disputes break out. They also know there’s time for everything; a time for electioneering and a time to move on.

    Atiku’s post-election conduct over the years shows he lacks the democratic temperament. This deadly deficiency has led him, time and again, to make costly miscalculations that have blighted what could have been a stellar political career with recurring cycles of defeat. 

    On Monday, the former VP formally reacted to his latest loss at the Supreme Court. It was a bilious outing that diminished him. He didn’t congratulate the winner – Bola Tinubu; not that it mattered. In this, he’s queuing behind the likes of Donald Trump in the column of graceless losers.

    What shocked me the most, however, was his blithe tarring of the Supreme Court as ‘compromised.’ As usual, he didn’t provide particulars of this ‘compromise’, just as he didn’t table one shred of evidence to back claims that he won the February election. But in a moment of extreme recklessness he put a question mark on the integrity of the seven justices who sat over his appeal, as well as the three others who were not on the panel. That is not fair, reasonable or rational.

    I know that losing politicians picking on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the courts is national sport in Nigeria. But savaging important institutions of a country you aspire to govern just because you lost an election, fairly or unfairly, is despicable.

    His scorched earth personal attacks against Tinubu, his erstwhile comrade-in-arms were all too revealing of an individual for whom nothing matters – not the past, not the present, not the future. His only reason for living is being installed president of this nation. For thirty years he has invested his all pursuing this one goal without success. It’s not because of a gang-up of the cosmos against him: he must have been doing something wrong.

    Back in 1999 when then PDP presidential candidate, Olusegun Obasanjo, was prospecting for a running mate, legend has it he was totally sold on picking the charismatic former Kano State Governor, Abubakar Rimi, until one-time Minister of Works, Tony Anenih, intervened.

    He reportedly warned Obasanjo that if he went ahead with Rimi, he should make sure there was a policeman always standing outside the door as they would fight regularly. But if he wanted someone who would be one hundred percent loyal he should appoint Atiku who had just been elected governor of Adamawa State. His counsel was accepted but as we would soon see, even the famed wheeler-dealer was mistaken. The even-tempered image of the man he was promoting would turn out to be a mere veneer.

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    Many have said that in Atiku Obasanjo saw someone he could groom to take over as president. But his VP was a man in a hurry. In no time his associates started marketing a poisonous political concoction called the ‘Mandela Option.’ It was so named because the veteran South African leader had elected to stand down after just one term on account of advanced age. It was his choice.

    Obasanjo didn’t see himself in similar circumstances. He was still vigorous, mentally alert and determined to serve two terms if the voters agreed. While has dreaming, his scheming deputy was quietly taking over the PDP. By the time the 2003 electoral season rolled over the president found himself going on bended knees to beg Atiku for support. It was a humiliation he never forgot. It was a miscalculation that the man he once thought of installing as successor paid for dearly, as he was reduced to just drinking tea in office and finally driven out of the ruling party.

    In 2011, after Goodluck Jonathan, had taken over following the death of Umaru Yar’Adua, the mood within PDP was that the incumbent should be allowed to take the presidential ticket. Atiku disagreed and rallied three other Northern aspirants – Aliyu Gusau, Bukola Saraki and Ibrahim Babangida – to offer a regional challenge to the emerging consensus. The ex-VP was chosen as the Northern consensus candidate and took his challenge to the convention floor on Eagle Square, Abuja. 

    Despite his best efforts, he was resoundingly defeated. Clearly sensing the fate that awaited him at the convention ballot, his speech to delegates was classic Atiku. It was a bitter and explosive attack on his rival and the party leadership who he insinuated had already rigged the outcome against him. He would sulk for the next four years, biding his time.

    In 2015, he was planning another run for president. Again, Jonathan who wanted a second term stood in the way. He had the option of waiting patiently for another four years, preserving PDP as the potent platform that had bragged it would rule for 60 years. Instead, the impatient Atiku joined the revolt of five governors and others who defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC). That critical move empowered the nascent opposition, emasculated the ruling party and led to its downfall. 

    It was another Atiku miscalculation. He had overconfidently assumed he would walk in and pick up the ticket. He underrated the level of support that the APC legacy groups had committed to Muhammadu Buhari. After he was worsted at the Teslim Balogun Stadium late in 2014, he went into another massive sulk – retreating from virtually all party activities.

    Sensing that Buhari would seek a second term in 2019 and APC with its commitment to power rotation would not hand the ticket to another Northerner in 2023, Atiku staged a predictable return to his PDP vomit. After losing handily four years ago, he rehashed his usual post-defeat chorus. 

    But the ex-VP’s defining miscalculation happened in this electoral cycle. His decision to run against the power rotation principle that argued it was only fair that after eight years of Buhari, the next president should come from the South, broke his party. It was partly why Peter Obi left and took the Southeast with him. It was the reason Nyesom Wike fought him till the bitter end. When he had the option of sacrificing then party chair, Iyorchia Ayu, to appease aggrieved members, he chose to thumb his nose at his opponents. The upshot was that a divided house lost to a more cohesive one.

    Atiku believes a coalition of the judiciary and INEC felled him. He is free to live wherever he chooses: in Dubai or in denial. The historical fact is that a presidential election was held in which the traditional PDP vote fractured three ways because of the Turaki Adamawa’s grand miscalculation.

    He is now compounding his error by attacking the Supreme Court over an irreversible election outcome. If Atiku didn’t believe in the integrity of our courts, why subject himself to their adjudication at tribunal and apex court levels. If judgment had gone in his favour would he have made the same assessments? 

    He has hinted he might join the race come 2027. Again, he is assuming that the PDP was created only for the actualisation of his presidential dreams. He thinks the party would be ever ready to hand its ticket to a man who has lost again and again. I dare say if the party declines him the ticket, he will look for another platform on which to run.

    A true democrat has an understanding of the times. A few days ago, former US Vice President Mike Pence dropped out of the race for the Republican Party ticket in the face of the robust bid by his former boss Trump. He said after quiet contemplation he came to the conclusion that ‘this is not my time.’ A true democrat is realistic. They know when to call it a day. Fake ones don’t, they are driven only by their primary obsession. Nothing else matters. 

  • Nigeria and the politics of pain

    Nigeria and the politics of pain

    As a teenager I was once confronted with the reality that the only way I would be free of the discomfort I felt was to press through another threshold of pain. I had woken up on a particular morning with a throbbing toothache which didn’t respond to any analgesic or gel I threw at it. The only way out was to extract the errant molar.

    I lay back in absolute terror as the dentist bore down on my gum with a gigantic syringe that held a close resemblance to the giant claw in Captain Hook’s left hand. The pain as he pulled out the infernal tooth was blinding, excruciating. But once it was done, I began to experience peace and normalcy in my body that I hadn’t known for days.

    For several weeks in Nigeria all the talk has been about the hardship that has accompanied the removal of fuel subsidy by President Bola Tinubu at his inauguration on May 29, 2023. In short order petrol prices crashed through the N500 per litre barrier. Food, transportation costs and prices of everything that had value spiked and all hell was let loose.

    With exchange rate reforms that encouraged a convergence between official and parallel markets, we soon had a perfect storm. We’ve seen the naira fall to unprecedented lows against major world currencies, the upshot being that the price of all imports also went through the roof.

    Chief of these imports is petrol and the removal of subsidy meant we all woke up to start paying real world rates. In any clime no one wants to pay more for anything. My personal weekly petrol bill has quadrupled and it isn’t amusing. So whether you are a supporter of the president or a bitter adversary, no one is exempt from today’s frightening economic realities.

    Wherever there is pain people cry out instinctively. The muted outcry that greeted the initial increases early in June, exploded into raw anger in many quarters following a second hike last week which Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) CEO, Mele Kyari, blamed on market forces. His explanation that prices would fluctuate depending on exchange rate and demand and supply factors left many cold.

    A couple of newspapers and columnists have written OP-EDs querying the new policies and even demanding a reversal. Others who couldn’t be bothered with logic, simply went to town proclaiming Armageddon was upon us.

    On Monday, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, was at his preachy best accusing government of driving millions into poverty through poor implementation of ordinarily noble policies. Given his penchant for opportunistic interventions in the past, it isn’t a stretch to hazard in what direction this barb was aimed.

    It would be dishonest to pretend that in a country without proper mass transit, the most vulnerable segment of the population has not been negatively impacted. Last November, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimated the number of Nigerians living in poverty to be over 133 million. That’s a lot. But that scandalous stat wasn’t created overnight: it’s the result of decades of mismanagement by successive governments.

    Much of the recent criticism of Tinubu’s moves is about the management of the process. He’s been blamed for announcing the removal on day one. But such dramatic action isn’t unheard of. In September last year, newly-elected Kenyan President William Ruto, a day after he was sworn in, scrapped his country’s ‘costly’ petrol subsidy, arguing it was unsustainable.

    Critics say certain things should have been put in place before removing subsidy. So, let’s start with what we can all agree on. The rollout could have been better, so also the messaging.

    Nearly everyone, even labour unions, admit the subsidy is not sustainable. President Tinubu and his rivals – the People Democratic Party’s (PDP) Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi of Labour Party (LP) – all committed themselves to scrapping it. Obi, with rhetorical flourish, denounced it as ‘organised crime.’

    Also, with the passage of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) the subsidy was supposed to end in February 2022. That suggests by continuing the payments since that time government was actually engaging in illegality.

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    In Africa more countries are coming to the realisation that they cannot continue to carry the burden without grave economic consequences. As mentioned earlier, Kenya acted decisively in September 2022. In March, Ghana bit the bullet and junked the subsidy. A few days after Tinubu acted, Angola took the plunge. In all these cases the removal has been greeted with anger and protests.

    If like Tinubu, Atiku or Obi would have removed subsidy what is the argument about? Let’s take them for their word and say the LP candidate wouldn’t have continued this ‘organised crime’ a day longer. The PDP flagbearer who would like to be seen as a reformer and pro-business would also not have encouraged the financial haemorrhage for much longer.

    Their supporters claim, however, that the two men would have handled things differently – whatever that means.

    I have heard all manner of ‘experts’ hold forth with prescriptions about what should have been done differently. Truth be told, no one has been where we are today; no one had terminated subsidy in this manner before. Everyone is just playing guessing games with scenarios. If we had done this maybe that would not have happened.

    Sometimes it is better to act and let men criticise your actions. Waiting for the perfect conditions to do what you should have done yesterday is called procrastination.

    The usual suggestions have been things like fix the refineries, establish effective mass transit nationwide and so on. But a government that is less than 60 days in office cannot be held responsible for the inability of the administrations that held forth in the last 20 years to fix refineries. Waiting to repair refineries means taking another 24 months at the earliest to act.

    I have even heard it said that perhaps we should have waited for the Dangote Refinery to come on stream. The owner promised the end of July but many sceptical voices had suggested at the time he made that statement, that the earliest the facility would start producing was later this year or well into 2024. It doesn’t make sense tying government policy to such uncertain take-off plans. 

    The new administration can’t also be blamed for the failure of its predecessors to put in place some sort of welfare system that enables the poorest of poor absorb the sort of economic shocks we are witnessing.

    So what’s the alternative? Do we because of the pain which the reforms have produced return to the old order of multiple exchange rates which created room for arbitrage that benefitted just a few? Do we return to the opaque regime of subsidies that made billionaires out of cross-border smugglers and was virtually bleeding the nation to death?

    NNPCL estimates that the country was losing N4.8 trillion yearly to the subsidies. In the 2023 budget the last administration budgeted N3.5 trillion to fund cheap fuel till the end of June. At that rate continuing the practice for another six months could have seen the pay-outs reach N7 trillion.

    This is money that can be used for infrastructure, healthcare and education. It would be interesting to know how much Nigeria spent on fuel subsidy over the last 30 years to get a sense of how wasteful we’ve been as nation.

    In the absence of metro lines and similar facilities in major cities, the closest thing to mass transport would be fleet of buses like the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Lagos. This is something that can done in the short to medium term. But in the current environment of near hysteria I wager that even if this had been in place before announcing the removal it wouldn’t have stopped protests because of impact that’s beyond commuting.

    Other things like an upward review of wages, cash transfers and sundry palliatives are on the table at federal and state levels. The good thing is that the outcry about hardship is putting office holders at all levels under pressure and forcing them into action. We must all add our voices to calling on federal, state and local governments to do all they can to ameliorate the suffering.

    Our national discussion can’t just be an unending singsong about our troubles. We should balance the inconveniences with celebration of good news. At the recent Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) meeting, the three tiers of government had N1.959 trillion as revenue to share in July 2023. (Only N907 billion of the amount was eventually distributed; the rest was saved). It is was a record.

    It was nearly triple the N786.161 billion shared in June and more than thrice the N655.93 billion distributed in May. It would be interesting to see if this upward trajectory in maintained in August.

    With more cash from savings, governments at all levels should be able to do more by investing in the things that are critical to peoples’ wellbeing.

    If this pain isn’t an end in itself, then those on the receiving end need better explanation as to why they are experiencing tough times and what awaits at the other side of the tunnel. Messaging must be improved to outwit those who are only interested in exploiting current challenges for political ends.

  • Southeast as Nigeria’s giant conundrum (2)

    Southeast as Nigeria’s giant conundrum (2)

    Something surreal is playing out in Southeastern Nigeria. Every Monday life grinds to a halt in most of the five states in the zone ostensibly in pursuit of self determination for Biafra. The sit-at-home protests pioneered by the Independent Peoples of Biafra (IPOB) have taken a life of their own, not driven by conviction but self preservation on the part of the populace.

    People have learnt over time that to defy the puppeteers behind the action is akin to signing one’s death warrant. And so they suffer in silence.

    Sit-at-home is supposed to force the federal government of Nigeria to accede to a referendum which the separatist strongly believe would produce an overwhelming vote for secession. Unfortunately for the agitators, their chosen tool for pressuring the leaders of the land has had absolutely no impact at all. At least, in the last eight years, the President Muhammadu Buhari didn’t take notice.

    It’s not like when Niger Delta militants held the country by the jugular with devastating attacks on pipelines and oil drilling platforms far out at sea. Their activities quickly slashed oil exports and brought Umaru Yar’Adua government to the negotiating table.

    Rather than punish the government in Abuja, the sit-at-home saga has devastated the economy of the Southeast and is demoralising a vibrant people. In reality, it isn’t popular. That is why official IPOB has tried to distance itself from it. But the Simon Ekpa group which claims to be fighting Nnamdi Kanu’s cause, is gung-ho about it. At his command the region has just been put through one week of forced seclusion.

    A battle of wills is raging. More and more courageous voices are speaking up to denounce what is going on. But the people by their reaction show they would rather obey the faceless terrorists than align with mainstream leaders no matter how reasonable they may sound.

    This week a group of reasonably upset political leaders from the zone gathered in Abuja to deliberate on the way forward. They decided to approach President Bola Tinubu for direct intervention.

    As if in reaction, Ekpa and his band have now decreed a two-week sit-at-home protest. Can the long-suffering people of this region abide this much longer before things boil over? I get the sense that matters have come to a critical juncture.

    Nearly two years ago on October 13, 2021, I shared my thoughts on the troubles in Igboland. Those arguments are just as relevant today as they were back then. That column is reproduced here:

    Southeast as Nigeria’s giant conundrum

    We are at a historical juncture where the Southeast is fast trading places with the Northeast and Northwest as a major source of worry.

    The escalation of separatist violence marked by attacks on security agents, police stations, properties of top politicians, as well as the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra (IPOB) sit-at-home campaign, shows no sign of abating.

    If the Federal Government thought the extraordinary rendition of the group’s leader Nnamdi Kanu from Kenya would lead to a collapse of pro-Biafra agitation and violence, the reverse has been the case.

    In the last few months we’ve witnessed the shocking assassinations of notable figures like former presidential adviser, Ahmed Gulak and Dr. Chike Akunyili, husband of the late Director-General of the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC), Dr. Dora Akunyili. Both were brutally executed in the street.

    Scores with lesser profiles have been murdered for daring to flout the sit-at-home diktat. Some had their dwellings razed for openly criticising the tactics of the secessionists. Individuals and corporate organisations have lost billions as their trucks and goods were vandalised.

    Even when one or two governors ventured out of their Government House fortresses to encourage citizens to step out on the so-called ‘Ghost Mondays,’ they were ignored because people know who calls the shots in the region these days.

    Such is the scale of the violence that campaigns for November’s Anambra governorship elections have been thrown into disarray. Major parties like the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) have shut down public appearances for fear of attacks.

    The greater fear is that on polling day we may witness historically low turnout that renders the whole exercise a charade. How are security forces that haven’t been able to stop killings in normal times expected to provide cover for electoral officers in isolated communities on Election Day?

    This spectre of violence prompted Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, to injudiciously suggest that declaration of a state of emergency in Anambra was a distinct possibility.

    Many ridiculed him for being so gung-ho about declaring an emergency in Anambra, while not advocating the same strong medicine in his Northwest home turf where bloodthirsty bandits have killed hundreds, sacked rural communities and disrupted the educational system. They have a point.

    Malami and other senior Federal Government officials should actually be taking a broader view of what’s unfolding in the region. It’s bigger than just delivering some semblance of elections through a show of force.

    Long after the polls have come and gone, the mess in the Southeast would be waiting for someone to clean it up.

    Truth be told, neither government nor IPOB can have it their way. The militarisation of the region and deployment of intimidation hasn’t extinguished pro-Biafra sentiment. A new low was reached last week when soldiers apprehended popular actor Chiwetalu Agu for wearing a robe depicting Biafra colours complete with the rising sun symbol.

    Some may not be as brazen as the thespian by putting their sentiments on public display in such manner, but many harbour a fondness for Biafra in the Southeast.

    Senate Minority Leader, Enyinnaya Abaribe, recently estimated that over 30 separatist groups currently operate in the region. Twenty years ago the Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) was the only one, and it was viewed as something of a joke.

    The only way to reverse that growth trajectory is to engage in a battle for hearts, not a shooting war. It’s difficult to sustain a union based solely on military might. Where there’s a will, people ultimately find a way – no matter the might of the state. This is a struggle that’s going to outlive President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration because the sentiments driving it are deep-rooted.

    The Spanish situation is a good example. The Catalan independence movement has been at it since the mid-19th century. When separatist leaders called protests following the jailing of some of their colleagues in 2019, the streets of Barcelona were jammed by tens of thousands of demonstrators.

    They don’t have their own country yet and may not in the foreseeable future, but political parties pushing their agenda have wormed their way into the mainstream, advancing the independence cause.

    The big problem in the Southeast is the gulf separating both sides. IPOB wants nothing short of an independent Biafra, by referendum if possible. But since government will not serve up balkanisation of the country on a platter, it’s increasingly embracing guerrilla struggle. Unfortunately, it doesn’t have the military wherewithal or political support – internally and externally – to prevail that way.

    Using hate-fuelled rhetoric hasn’t won it many friends. The promotion of Kanu as an almost messianic, cult-like figure has repulsed many in the establishment and political classes who have no appetite for a revolutionary journey to an uncertain destination.

    Central to the challenge facing IPOB is the huge population of Igbos who witnessed the civil war, for whom the memories are still vivid and horrendous. They are in no hurry to embark on a sequel – not for all the pleasures of having their own homeland.

    Overcoming their initial fear, more of such individuals are speaking out, denouncing the heavy material and psychological toll of the violence and sit-at-home campaigns on the region.

    It appears what IPOB is selling isn’t sufficiently attractive, that’s why they are pushing it using terror. While images of deserted streets may represent short term propaganda gains, the collateral damage from the group’s scorched earth approach is alienating many ordinary people. It’s the surest way of short-circuiting their struggle.

    The best route to restore normalcy is for all sides to recognise the limitations of their present approach and admit the existence of legitimate grievances that should be addressed.

    For all the talk of reconciliation following the war, distrust between the Southeast and the rest of Nigeria is latent. This needs to be dealt with in an open and honest manner. Where errors have been made, like other zones having six or seven states and the east just five, this can be revisited.

    Whatever solution is envisaged must acknowledge that Kanu is already trapped in judicial proceedings and there’s no conceivable way out but for the process to run its course. If he’s convicted, some future president, in the spirit of national reconciliation and healing, may decide to offer him an amnesty.

    But the region’s political office holders, would-be presidential aspirants, must urgently seize the initiative because their territory is being destroyed daily in a slow-burn ‘second civil war’ that’s currently playing