Category: Niyi Akinnaso

This is not the time for reckoning of the fortunes and misfortunes of the All Progressives Congress in Osun state. Nevertheless, any intervention in the politics of the state must acknowledge the successive losses of four major elections in the state in the last rounds of elections: the governorship election; the presidential election; the National Assembly election; and the state’s House of Assembly election. It is no exaggeration to assert that APC was wiped out completely.

The situation calls for sober reflection, rather than grandstanding or divisive rhetoric. As I will point out in the near future, it is myopic to conclude that the losses were due to factionalism alone. True, the recalcitrancy of the two principals in the conflict fuelled the split of party members. However, even more important factors contributed to the losses. Of course, the Peoples Democratic Party took advantage of the factionalism within the APC to enhance their chances in other areas.

I was charged with the conduct of the opinion poll for the state. It was clear from the poll that care must be taken to avoid defeat. I explained the details of the areas in which the PDP had competitive advantage to the Governor. However, he chose to ignore the poll for reasons I will explain later.

It is against these backgrounds that I comment briefly on recent political developments in the state. The first was the party restructuring committee set up by Governor Gboyega Oyetota before the Tribunal judgements were exhausted. It was headed by Professor Isaac Adewole, former Vice-Chancellor of the University of Ibadan and former Minister of Health. Not a few observers thought at the time that the committee was hastily set up to preempt the eventual return to Osun by former Governor Rauf Aregbesola, after the expiration of his ministerial term in Abuja on May 29, 2023.

True to form, Aregbesola did show up in Osogbo and Ilesa about a week or so ago. He visited traditional rulers in both towns and addressed a large gathering of supporters, typified by artisans and market women. His apology was couched to appeal to this group of supporters, who are likely to conclude: “O ti bebe. Aforiji lo ku”.

However, it was igbimo agba, led by Chief Sola Akinwumi that responded. In the eyes of the elders, Aregbesola still was not contrite enough. Some even thought he took back as much apology as he gave. In their own judgement, he should formally apologise for his “misdeeds” before he could be re-admitted to the party. The question is: Where did he go?

While holding judgement on the position of the elders regarding Aregbesola, the Chairman of the party, Tajudeen Lawal, was firm about sanctioning those engaged in anti-party activities. In a statement that lacks institutional memory, the Chairman said: “Meanwhile, we must be clear about this, we are not restructuring the party. The party is intact in Osun under Baba Bisi Akande and Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola.” Yet, “restructuring” is one of the tasks before the Adewole committee. Elsewhere, the Chairman made it clear that he was focused on those who served in the administration of Governor Oyetola.

Be that as it may, a party which lost four critical elections in a row in one electoral cycle cannot afford to take the high road in reforming the party. Rather, it must work toward inclusiveness. That’s why the idea of sanctions should not be the starting point of negotiations.

Perhaps a lesson for the party Chairman is in order here. Governor Oyetola reached out to the former SSG, Moshood Adeoti, who defected to the ADP in the 2018 governorship election and nearly cost Oyetola the election. He did not make any noise about it. Unfortunately, however, negotiations fell through, when the Governor refused to welcome Adeoti and his supporters to the APC with the customary welcome back jamboree. The rest is history.

The truth is that if the APC in Osun must make progress, the dividing line between Ileri and Oranmiyan must be blurred. Besides, there is no way progress could be made if the two leaders of these factions do not talk to each other and to their supporters. This must be the focus of party leaders in Osun. It is not going to be easy. But it must be done.

The 100-day mark of a President’s term is an arbitrary and artificial milestone, which has neither constitutional nor statutory significance. Besides, it has no root in Nigerian politics. Yet, it is the stuff of the critical press in contemporary Nigeria as it seeks to emulate the American press, where the 100-day benchmark for initial appraisals of a President’s achievements was rooted.

The history goes back to the first 100 days of the presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the 32nd President of the United States, elected to a first term in November 1832. It was in the midst of what has come to be known as the Great Depression. It was virtually the worst of times in American economic history. Between election and inauguration on March 4, 1933, Roosevelt literally went into seclusion to work out ways of getting out of the depression. That’s what enabled him to start with a flurry of legislations that reversed the disastrous trend in his country.

Within 100 days of assuming office, Roosevelt saved the failing banks by first declaring a bank holiday, which allowed the banks to take stock and start on the way to recovery. To aid the banks’ recovery, he took the United States off the gold standard. Besides, he succeeded in getting groundbreaking legislations passed for farmers, homeowners, and the unemployed. He also passed amendments to the much hated Volstead Act meant to aid the enforcement of the legislation prohibiting the manufacture, transportation, sale, and consumption of alcoholic drinks in the United States.

Roosevelt accomplished so much in his first 100 days that the American press deified him and used his accomplishments as the gold standard for evaluating successive Presidents. However, no President has since come close, not even Ronald Reagan, the two-term 40th President, generally considered to be successful. The truth is that the circumstances of Roosevelt’s presidency were unique. He faced and overcame a domestic upheaval during his first two terms and was enmeshed in World War 2 during his third and fourth terms. Of course, he remains the only American President to serve more than two terms. He died in office during his fourth term.

Yet, the 100-day benchmark lives on. With many journalists divorced from its history, it has conveniently become myth. Like all myths, it is recycled again and again until it became a darling of the Nigerian press. In less than three months, the Nigerian press will be ready to evaluate the first 100 days of the Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration. Journalists will jump over themselves in pointing out what he should have done within the period but failed to do as if all of Nigeria’s problems could be solved in 100 days.

Those who want to do that are free to do so. But I am not for that, and I have advised the President not to fall for the 100-day myth. Nigeria is different with unique social, economic, and political situations. Besides, the aftermath of the highly contested presidential election, which brought Tinubu to power, and the strictures it has widened along ethnic, religious, and regional cleavages require caution. That’s why I have suggested that he should target the first six months of his administration as a benchmark.

Read Also: Adeleke: I’ll render account after 100 days

Within this period, Nigerians should know where he plans to take the country. Fortunately, in two key speeches on inauguration and Democracy Day, he has provided indications of where he plans to take the country. The outlines of the plan should be clearer within the next six months. He should also have had his full cabinet and key advisers in place within the period. I take the six-month benchmark after Dr. Henry Kissinger, who once suggested that the first six months of a new administration are the most crucial for its successful take-off and future accomplishments (thanks to Professor Ladipo Adamolekun for drawing my attention to Kissinger on this matter).

Some important programme outlines to be unveiled within this period should include (1) the unification of the exchange rate; (2) the national security outfit; (3) devolution of more powers to the states; (4) the reallocation of resources so that states could realise their potentials; (5) plans to generate employment; and (6) plans to improve power production and distribution, without which no much could be accomplished.

With the inauguration of the tenth National Assembly yesterday, June 13, 2023, draft legislations, where necessary, on these matters should begin flowing in.

The President’s announcement of the removal of fuel subsidy has generated even more positive review at home and abroad than anticipated. This should be followed by the unification of the exchange rate. It is understandable why no further step has been taken beyond the President’s announcement of his plan on this matter in both the Renewed Hope manifesto and and his inauguration speech. It is necessary to purge the Central Bank of its Governor’s shenanigans, which the President has embarked upon. However, the outlines of the unification of the exchange rate should be ready before the conclusion of the ongoing investigation of the CBN Governor and unveiled as soon as a new Governor and Board are appointed.

This leads to yet another issue. Nigerians and international financial institutions are waiting anxiously for the unveiling of the President’s economic team to lead the economic reforms. This is necessary so that input that could not reach the President directly could reach members of the team. Besides, the announcement effect of a strong team has a way of reassuring the financial market just as the President’s mere utterance of four words, “fuel subsidy is gone”, led to a huge gain in the Stock Exchange the following day.

Tinubu needs more time beyond the imported 100-day benchmark. That’s why I concluded my first essay during his presidency with the following words: “Finally, I implore the Tinubu administration to shun the artificial benchmark of 100 days and instead benchmark six months for charting the full course of action for his administration. Within this period, it must be clear to his cabinet, the National Assembly, and the public where he plans to take the nation” (Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria’s 16th leader, The Nation, May 31, 2023).

“Fuel subsidy is gone”
—President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in his inauguration address on May 29, 2023

He took his eyes off the teleprompter and looked straight at Nigerians watching him at home and abroad and, unequivocally, uttered four words in a measured tone, riddled with a note of finality: “Fuel subsidy is gone”. Anyone who thought that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu spoke off the cuff that day, and that he should not have done that, did not understand the new President’s deliberative decision-making process and that he does not say what he does not mean.

To be sure, the entire inaugural speech contained major indications of the direction of Tinubu’s economic policy to which the stock market responded positively with a gain of N1.5tr the following day. Nevertheless, the pronouncement on the withdrawal of fuel subsidy generated initial controversy. Despite wide positive support at home and abroad, the opposers chose to ignore the revelation in the same speech that no provision was made for subsidy payments in the budget Tinubu inherited from his predecessor, former President Muhammadu Buhari. They also ignored the warning by Buhari that subsidy would be removed in June by his successor.

Nevertheless, within a few days, the opposition began to wither, giving rise either to questions about timing or to suggestions as to how the effects of subsidy removal could be ameliorated. To give room for further negotiations, scheduled for June 19, 2023, between the government and organised labour, the NLC called off its strike planned for Wednesday, June 7.

In the forefront of support for subsidy removal is the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation Limited, which quickly rallied oil marketers to arrive at a new pump price of petrol. Within 72 hours of the President’s speech, a new pump price regime was published to stabilise the market and save consumers from shylock petrol stations, most of which shut down operations within hours of the speech to create artificial scarcity. Above all, NNPCL issued a robust statement of support for the policy.

At the other extreme, the Nigeria Labour Congress, the Trade Union Congress, and the Nigerian Union of Road Transport Workers stoutly opposed the removal of subsidy. In Akure, Ondo state, taxis were stopped from working a day after inauguration. The few ones that attempted to work had their passengers forcibly removed and their vehicles seized. However, the NURTW’s gira-gira in Ondo state fizzled out by the end of that day and everything returned to normal.

Read Also: BREAKING: Tinubu signs bill raising judges’ retirement age

However, the NLC persisted in its obstructionist posture, which the President bluffed off with stout resolution that the removal had come to state. Besides, the NLC was exposed for its duplicity: All major political parties supported the removal of fuel subsidy during the campaign, including the Labour Party with which the NLC was aligned. Why oppose the policy now at the point of implementation? Would they have opposed it had Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the LP, won the election?

Be that as it may, the reported attempt by the Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele, at sabotaging the President’s plan to unify the exchange rate policy would have adversely affected fuel subsidy removal, by further destabilising the market, if not quickly exposed like the Daily Trust did on June 1, 2023, barely 48 hours after the inauguration. The paper reported exclusively that the CBN hastily sold the dollar at N631. The paper quoted one of the customers as confirming that “they applied and that their request was fully granted at N631 as against N461.6”. Although the CBN denied the story, the paper quickly responded that it stood by the story. There has been no counter-denial by the Central Bank.

Nevertheless, the President reportedly reiterated his determination to unify the exchange rate policy at a meeting with the CBN Governor after the publication of the story. To many observers, the story has rekindled the call for Emefiele’s resignation or termination as the action recalls his failed cash swap policy, not to speak of his failed bid at running for President against the CBN Act, which emphasizes the independence of the Central Bank from partisan politics. For example, Premium Times, which has long advocated the removal of the CBN Governor, reiterated its position, by calling for the immediate removal and even prosecution of the CBN Governor and setting in motion the reform of the Central Bank.

The truth is that fuel subsidy removal has come to state, notwithstanding the efforts of opposers and saboteurs of the policy. Today, informed citizens and the international community have rallied round the President over the subsidy removal policy. For example, the World Bank has pledged its cooperation in achieving the removal of subsidy and in assisting in the provision of necessary palliatives.

Moreover, financial institutions, such as Price Waterhouse Coopers, have suggested various palliatives that could cushion the effects of subsidy removal, including increase in the minimum wage; high tax exemption; and availability of foreign exchange for importers of diesel used to power the engines used in production. These, of course, would be short-term measures since the President has a bold economic plan that will channel the funds released by subsidy removal to necessary areas of the economy.

Fortunately, the President indicated willingness to review the minimum wage and work is ongoing on the project and other possible palliatives. In the meantime, states and local governments have a duty also to align with the Federal Government in providing palliatives as they would be the direct beneficiaries of the funds released by subsidy removal.

Already, some states have come up with interesting palliatives. For example, Kwara state has suggested a three-day working week to cushion the effect of subsidy removal, while Oyo state has set up a committee to review the minimum wage in the state.

It cannot be emphasized enough that the removal of subsidy far outweighs the perpetuation of subsidy regime, which distorts the economy and entrenches corruption, by putting oil money in a few hands. For example, about N5 trillion was spent on fuel subsidy in 2022 alone. That is even more than the total budget of all 36 states. It is even crazier than that. For some time now, Nigeria has been paying fuel subsidy from borrowed funds! There is no better time to remove fuel subsidy than now.  

“Our mission is to improve our way of life in a manner that nurtures our humanity, encourages compassion toward one another, and duly rewards our collective effort to resolve the social ills that seek to divide us”
As your President, I shall serve with prejudice toward none but compassion and amity towards all.
—President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in his inaugural speech on May 29, 2023.

I cannot remember the exact date in July 2017 but I remember the time. It was around 3:30am. We had just concluded a marathon review of why Mudashiru Hussain of the All Progressives Congress lost the Osun West Senatorial District election of July 8, 2017, to Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party. After everyone had left, three of us remained in the room, namely, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Rauf Aregbesola (Osun State Governor at the time), and myself, mauling over the activities of a senior member of the party, who was suspected to have worked against the party in pursuit of his perceived governorship ambition.

Tinubu already foresaw the possibility of factionalism or defection that might hurt the party’s chances in the governorship election the following year. He wanted Aregbesola to win over the recalcitrant member. “You need everybody”, he told Aregbesola. “And, sometimes, you have to stoop to conquer.” At the end of the day, the said party member actually defected to another party and ran for the governorship in 2018 against the APC candidate. His defection nearly cost the party the governorship election. Needless to say, the ripple effects of the 2017 West Senatorial election and its aftermath underlie the recent misfortunes of the APC in Osun. But that is a subject for another day.

The philosophy of stooping to conquer is central to Tinubu’s “strategic humility”, which Tunji Bello illustrated in his Asiwaju and strategic humility (The Nation, May 26, 2023). Strategic humility is the strategic deployment of the golden virtue of humility in order to gain competitive advantage over competitors and adversaries.

It is not only in the political sphere that Tinubu deploys strategic humility. He does so in regular social relations as well. Who does not remember the vitriol unleashed on Tinubu by the late Yinka Odumakin? Rather than respond in kind, Tinubu offered assistance to Odumakin when he needed one. Besides, he provided one of the most memorable eulogies and necessary assistance to Odumakin’s survivors.

In an earlier column, I illustrated the strategies used by Tinubu to build the coalitions that won him the presidency (see How to become President of Nigeria, The Nation, March 8, 2023). Stooping to conquer, as a subset of strategic humility, was central to those strategies.

It is heartwarming to note that Tinubu is already transferring these strategies to governance, now that he is President. Of his political opponents, he had this to say during his inaugural speech: “They shall forever be my fellow compatriots. And I will treat them as such”. He even defends their right to go to court against him: “Seeking legal redress is their right and I fully defend their exercise of this right. This is the essence of the rule of law.” We should expect no less from someone who took a sitting President to court and won, while he was the Governor of Lagos State.

Past vs. Present

Political opponents used a two-step strategy during the campaign to discourage and disparage Tinubu’s campaign efforts. One was to draw attention to the presumed failures of the Buhari administration. The other was to put the toga of Buhari’s failures on the APC and then associate them with Tinubu since he was the party’s candidate. Even in far away London, during his lecture at Chatham House, Tinubu was asked how he thought he could win an election against the backdrop of his party’s presumed failures. Tinubu’s response was something to the effect that the President then was Muhammadu Buhari but “I am Bola Ahmed Tinubu”.

With Buhari’s departure yesterday, Tinubu again asserted his self-confidence as his own man. Hear him in his inaugural speech, after outlining key aspects of his agenda: “With full confidence in our ability, I declare that these things are within our proximate reach because my name is Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and I am the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria”.

Tinubu has already started to chart his own course. However, much as he would like to respect former President Buhari, it will be necessary to share his findings of the state of the nation in due course. The goal will not be to blame the previous administration like Buhari did of the Peoples Democratic Party administration before him. Rather, the purpose is to lay the groundwork for public understanding of where he, as President, is coming from and to be able to appreciate the rough road he has to travel as well as his achievements down the road.

Finally, I implore the Tinubu administration to shun the artificial benchmark of 100 days and instead benchmark six months for charting the full course of action for his administration. Within this period, it must be clear to his cabinet, the National Assembly, and the public where he plans to take the nation.

I wish the President and his wife, Senator Remi Tinubu, as well as Vice President Kashim Shettima and his wife, Mrs. Nana Shettima, a very successful tenure that would bring peace, unity, self-fulfillment, and renewed hope to all Nigerians.

Cheerful, despite the outcry about passport scarcity? Hold your breath and, please, read on. Statistics, they say, don’t lie. As I indicated on this column last week, much of the outcry about passport scarcity in recent times was orchestrated by recalcitrant officials of the Nigeria Immigration Service and orchestrated by touts and the critical media (see Truths and untruths about passport scarcity, The Nation, May 17, 2023).

To be sure, there was a time when passport booklets were a real problem, leading to backlogs of unprocessed applications in passport offices throughout the country and even overseas. During this period, corruption was rampant as passports were issued to the highest bidder. That was the situation throughout the sixteen years when the federal administration was run by the Peoples Democratic Party. As the data below will show, the backlog lingered into the APC administration of President Muhammadu Buhari, when he took over in 2015, and it persisted until recently.

However, beginning in late 2019, after Rauf Aregbesola took over as the Minister of Interior, a critical appraisal of the entire passport issuance process was undertaken and the old system was completely overhauled. This gave birth to several key developments, including (1) introduction of online application and payment of a standardised fee; (2) identity verification, including linkage with the National Identity Number, and data capture in the applicant’s chosen passport office; (3) establishment of additional computer-based passport production centres throughout the country and even overseas; (4) creation of new Front Offices to aid the application and data verification processes; (5) employment of new technical partners via Public Private Partnership for the production of passport booklets and periodic restocking of the NIS booklet storage; and, above all, (6) introduction of the e-passport with multiple security features to make forgery, such as picture exchange, impossible.

These changes have produced several results, including reduction of the cash-and-carry practice of old; reduction of touts and elimination of the illegal sale of application forms; availability of passport booklets for at least three months ahead of production schedule; a standardised timeline for passport production such that applicants can collect their passport within three weeks of application for renewal or reissue and six weeks for new passport; and clearing the backlog of applications, which accumulated when passport booklets were a real issue.

Another cheerful result is in the increase in the total number of passports issued since the inception of the Muhammadu Buhari administration on May 29, 2015 and the clearing of the age-long backlog of applications. In the eight years of the administration, an average of over 1 million passports were issued every month. Thus, as of today, the APC administration has issued about 9.5 million passports in its eight years, between 2015 and 2023, while only 6.5 million passports were issued during the eight years of the PDP administration, between 2007 and 2015.

Read Also: Passport home delivery coming, says Aregbesola

On several occasions, the number of passports issued by the Buhari administration exceeded the number of applications received, because the huge backlog of applications inherited from the previous administration was gradually being cleared.

In the last three years, since the new system kicked in, the turnover has been spectacular as passports were issued to roughly 97 percent of all applicants. This was possible partly because the entire backlog of applications had been cleared and partly because applications are now being processed as they are received.

The question now is: What next? Adequate answers to this question are necessary in order to sustain the reforms and the momentum already established, given the usual problem with the sustainability of government programmes. Besides, it is important to achieve the planned reforms on the drawing board.

One of them is to establish additional Front Offices so that applicants will not have to go far for identity verification and data capture. Such a development will also reduce congestion in existing offices. The United States employs a similar pattern of decentralisation by adopting three options for passport application submission, namely, by mail (usually through the Post Office), at a passport agency or centre, or at an acceptance facility. However, there is a significant difference. There is no need for applicants to go for data verification or capture, because the long established system of social security number provides a direct link to the applicant’s basic biometric data as well as a trail of his or her activities over time.

Another development on the drawing board is to engage a reliable Courier Service for passport delivery. This has since become standard practice in the US, where expedited delivery is even available for an additional fee. Such a development will be beneficial for NIS officials and the applicants. It will ease congestion at Passport Control Offices and allow NIS officials to concentrate on passport processing, leading to improved productivity. Besides, by reducing contact with applicants, the chances for extortion will be drastically reduced. At the end of the day, it will speed up the process of passport processing and production, while also taking away the hassle and stress of going to Passport Offices for collection.

Once these processes become routine, the processing and issuance of passports will no longer attract media attention as there will no longer be room for the creation of artificial scarcity of passport booklets or the crowding of Passport Offices. It is unfortunate that such negative developments have dwarfed the advances made in passport application processing, security enhancement, and passport production, especially in the last three years.

Boolekaja (Come-down-and-let’s-fight-it-out) was the nickname given to the rickety commercial buses of old, whose drivers and conductors were often in conflict with passengers over several issues, ranging from fares and change to damaged seats and changed routes. Quite often, the passengers’ anger would boil over and they would take it on the bus driver and his conductor, who were often discourteous and rude. It was not uncommon for a fight to break out between the parties.

A number of Nigeria’s domestic airlines today operate more or less like the Boolekaja buses. This is especially true of the three airlines, which fly the Akure-Abuja and Akure-Lagos routes.                              

The greatest problem with the airlines is lack of schedule integrity. They hardly keep to their advertised schedules as published online and as imprinted on passenger tickets and itineraries. More often than not, flights are delayed or cancelled, usually without informing passengers well in advance. In some cases passengers could be at the boarding lounge for hours, waiting to board as scheduled, only to learn that their flight had been cancelled. This happened to me at least on three occasions within the past one year. On one occasion, in Abuja, I had to intervene on behalf of the poor airline agents, some of whom did not know why exactly the flight in question was cancelled.

My most recent experience was with two of the airlines, namely, Overland Airways and Airpeace. My Akure-Abuja return ticket was purchased from Overland Airways on April 24, 2023, for an outbound flight to Abuja on April 26 and a return flight to Akure on Saturday, April 29. It was the only airline available for the outbound flight on April 26. At 12:54pm the following day, I got an email from Overland, informing me that the “Akure-Abuja flight of April 26, 2023, at 11:40am has been rescheduled to 2:30pm due to operational reasons”. That was nearly a 24-hour notice, which I appreciated. Good enough, the rescheduled flight worked, although only after nearly a one-hour delay.

I should have taken the delays on the outbound flight as a proper omen for more delays to come. However, what came next was worse than a delay. As early as 8:51am on April 28, I began to receive messages from Overland, informing me that my “Abuja-Akure flight of April 29, 2023, at 10:15am has been cancelled due to operational reasons”. I received the same message four times by email and at least once by SMS.

Nevertheless, I still applaud Overland Airways for the persistent effort to communicate with its passengers. I also admire  the prompt positive response to my request to keep my ticket open until further notice.

Since I could not find another flight to Akure on Saturday, April 29, I decided to leave Abuja on Sunday, April 30, because I must be at Akure on May 1. Unfortunately, however, Overland had no flight to Akure on Saturday or even Sunday, or so I was told by its agents. I ended up purchasing two different tickets, Abuja-Lagos on Sunday, April 30, and Lagos-Akure, May 1, both on Airpeace. Both turned out to be bad choices.

At 6:31pm on April 29, I got a message from Airpeace that the Abuja-Lagos flight, originally scheduled for 2:10pm on April 30 had been rescheduled to 5:20pm. No reason was given for the change. By 10:37pm, the same day, another message came from Airpeace, notifying me of a change in schedule from 5:20pm to 7:20pm. Reason? “Technical issues on operating aircraft”. Then came the mother of all changes at 1:15am on April 30, indicating that the same flight has again been rescheduled from 7:20pm to 7:00pm for the same “technical issues”. Now, you would think that’s a gain of 20 minutes for the passengers. Right? Wrooong!

By 5:00pm, I was at the Airpeace counter at the airport to check in my luggage and obtain my boarding pass. I was among the early birds.  I then went upstairs to the Protocol Lounge, waiting for a boarding announcement by 6:30pm for the 7:00pm flight. No such activity took place until about 8:00pm. We finally took off around 8:20pm and landed in Lagos about an hour later.

As I wondered about the several changes to the Abuja-Lagos flight, the size of the aircraft and the nearly 200 passengers on board gave me an idea. On that day, Airpeace advertised at least four flights to Lagos, the last one being the 7:00pm flight. It occurred to me that the airline simply  moved its passengers into a single end-of-the-day flight, because they did not have enough passengers for each of the three other flights. Alternatively, they might indeed have experienced technical issues with their aircraft.

However, my experience with the Lagos-Akure flight the following day, May 1, led me to suspect  that there probably were not technical issues after all. On April 28, I received a message from Airpeace at 4:05pm that the Lagos-Akure flight originally scheduled for 10:50am had been rescheduled for 7:00am. Accordingly, I slept early and set my alarm for 4:30am. When I woke up that early, I noticed that another message sent at 12:35am was waiting for me from Airpeace. The 7:00am flight had been moved to 1:00pm!

Oh, well. What to do? Shower and get ready for the day. Who knows, another message might soon come. Since none came, I headed for the airport. By 11:00am, I was already at the Airpeace counter to check in. This time around, I only stayed in the Lounge for about 2 hours as boarding was called about 1:14pm. We took off at 1:28pm and landed at Akure at 2:06pm.

Incidentally, just a week earlier, Jumoke Oduwole, Executive Secretary of the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council, had a bitter experience with Airpeace on its Akure-Lagos flight. Here’s how she described it: “On Saturday, April 22, 2023, two Airpeace tickets were purchased to return to Lagos from Akure with a departure time of 3:30pm … On Tuesday, April 25, 2023, a schedule change notification was sent informing me of an earlier departure time from 3:30pm to 12:40pm. A subsequent notification was sent at 2:37am today, April 28, 2023, informing me of a further time change from 12:40pm to 8:30am”. She abandoned her programme in Omuo-Ekiti but missed the flight because of the deplorable road condition, especially from Iju to Akure airport. She had no option than to embark on a 5-hour road journey from Akure to Lagos in order to make a 5pm meeting in Lagos.

This topic will be explored further next week.

About eight years ago or so, Kole and I were returning from Adekunle Ajasin University at Akungba-Akoko, where we were engaged in different tasks. He headed the Department of English, while I was Director of the Teaching and Learning Centre I was invited to establish there in 2013. It was a lend-us-your-experience assignment for each of us but we took it seriously. We normally commuted between Akure and Akungba but would stay over at Akungba for 2 or more days, depending on our load of work and the tasks to be accomplished.

On that occasion, we were about half-way on our way back to Akure, when we ran into a traffic jam at the roadside market in Emure-Ile. As usual on Nigerian roads, a two-lane (face-me-I-face-you) road had become four or more lanes. Traffic was more or less at a standstill as market women and their customers meandered through vehicles on the already congested roadway. One commercial bus driver nearly hit our car as he tried to double-cross us but for our alert driver who maneuvered his way out. As we drew parallel with the driver, Kole asked him, “Ki lo nwa yi?” Instead of a simple apology, the driver turned spiritual: “Ki Olorun gba wa ni o”. Visibly angry at the response, Kole muttered to no one in particular, “Ki lo kan Olorun l’oro yi bayi”.

I draw from the preceding paragraphs two of several post-retirement experiences Kole and I shared. One was the Akungba experience, which gave us deep insight into the state of university education in the country-the declining quality of scholarship and research; the inadequacy of infrastructure; and the lack of appropriate teaching tools, including books and teaching technologies. The other experience, which we both had shared for a long time, is non-alignment with any religion of the Book. Kole’s reaction to the invocation of God by the wayward driver comes from this non-alignment.

However, we both value and seek to uphold Yoruba culture and its modes of expression and reproduction, particularly language and the vast odu Ifa. In fact, Kole once proposed a Yoruba Language Institute and was working on it before returning to South Africa.

We also shared other experiences in our post-retirement years. We were both consultants to the Ondo state government on the invitation of Dr Olusegun Mimiko, Governor of Ondo State (2009-2017). After Akungba and the consultancy, Kole went on to head the English Department at the then young Elizade University, while I served on the Governing Council, and later Board of Trustees, of the same institution. Simultaneously with these activities, we also were columnists for different newspapers.

Straddling these activities and experiences was the three-some monthly discussion lunch with our mutual friend, Professor Ladipo Adamolekun, usually at Sunview Hotel or sometimes at Hotel Continental. At other times, one of us would host the lunch at home. This last experience was the most rewarding of all, because it afforded us the opportunities to reminisce about our varied professional experiences, the state of the nation, and the situation of our universities. On one occasion, Ladi also shared with us his own observations during his short post-retirement stint at the Federal University of Technology at Akure.

On several occasions we bounced off our observations against our experiences at the University of Ife, where the three of us taught during the university’s prime time in the seventies and eighties. Incidentally, all three of us left Nigeria in the late eighties. Ladi left for the World Bank, while I left on a Senior Fulbright Fellowship to the University of Wisconsin. I returned briefly to Nigeria on a research grant and later took up a permanent appointment at Temple University in Philadelphia. On his part, Kole fled to South Africa over possible persecution for his acclaimed novel, Just Before Dawn, published in 1988, which irked elite, especially military, sensibilities at the time.

In all my years with Kole as a close friend, three traits of his character struck me deeply. One, Kole is incapable of capital accumulation, not  because he is lazy or because he cannot spend money wisely, but because he cannot engage in piling up wealth as a capitalist. In other words, he makes only the money he needs to support himself and his family. If there is some excess beyond his immediate needs, he would enrich his bookshelves instead of his shoe rack and then give the rest to the needy.

He once told me of his experience when he bought his first car. It was a Volkswagen Beetle, which he drove to visit his uncle. On sighting the car, his uncle upbraided him for buying Ajapa, the local term for VW Beetle. He swallowed the censure but decided never to visit the uncle again! He did’t want any uncle to push him to spend beyond his means.

The second trait is Kole’s sense of social justice. For him, injustice is not limited to bondage as in slavery, forced labour, and sex trafficking. For him, most boundaries create prejudices, which then reinforce injustice. To demonstrate his dislike for boundaries, Kole once insisted on his house-help sitting at table to eat with the family! That’s why, in his writings, he explores the boundaries created by inter-racial, inter-generational, interethnic, and inter-national, marriages, some of which he himself experienced.

But above all, the third trait is Kole’s humanity. A compassionate, sympathetic, and generous disposition not only permeates his behaviour; it also leads him to expect reciprocity. That’s why the central theme in his writings is questioning the humanity of African leaders and intellectuals, who make a wasteland of their states, by failing to create the conditions for unity, social justice, equity, and the socioeconomic development on the continent. This is the question underlying Kole’s scathing revelations of the trials, tribulations, and failings of the Nigerian state in his acclaimed novel, Just Before Dawn. However, those whose leadership and judgement were questioned over the riots, uprisings, violence, coup d’etats, and corruption that have held Nigeria back for nearly a century all but asked for the author’s head.

The situation of the country has hardly improved beyond the description in Just Before Dawn, leading some Nigerians today to go back to the novel in order to better understand why we are still where we are today.

Kole, as you turned 80 on April 21, 2023, be rest assured that you successfully pricked the conscience of your nation with Just Before Dawn. Once more, Ladi and I are happy to welcome you to the club of octogenarians.

For the avoidance of doubt, the 2023 Census … like previous censuses of 1991 and 2006, have no questions on religion and ethnicity”.

—Director of Public Affairs Department, National Population Commission

Population census is not just about the number of people in a country. Rather it should collect data on a vast range of demographics, such as ethnicity, religion, age, gender, income, employment, literacy or educational level, and other data as may be deemed necessary. These demographics are used not just for planning and governance purposes by the government collecting the data; they are also used for research by scholars and by R&D departments of companies and corporations at home and abroad; for feasibility studies for programmes, products, and projects; and for projections by international bodies, such as the World Bank and the United Nations.

The National Population Commission (NPC) acknowledges the importance of these demographics: “A population and Housing Census (PHC) is of great relevance to the economic, political and socio-cultural planning of a country. Reliable and detailed data on the size, structure, distribution and socio-economic and demographic characteristics of a country’s population is required for policy intervention and monitoring of development goals”.

Some of these demographics are more important in certain countries than in others. For example, in diverse African countries, ethnicity and religion are very important demographics, which affect people’s life chances. This is especially the case in Nigeria, the largest Black nation on earth, universally recognized for its multiethnic, multilingual, and multi-religious structure.

Yet, for the third time in a row since the NPC was established by military decree in 1989, Nigeria is about to engage in a population census in which the key demographics of religion and ethnicity are not going to be collected. According to the NPC, “it was agreed that religion and ethnicity should not be included in the Census questionnaire in order to insulate the process and outcomes from unnecessary controversies”.

To be fare to the Commission, its decision was based on precedents. There has hardly been any census taken in Nigeria since colonial times that was free of political rancour. Some census data were rejected outright, while others were contested in court. For example, the pre-independence census of 1952/53 was rejected for under-enumeration and non-simultaneity of the exercise (North, May-August 1952; West Dec-January 1952/53; and East May-August 1953).

Similarly, the 1962 exercise was completely rejected for political reasons. The repeated exercise in 1963 was also rejected, having been contested before the Supreme Court, which ruled that it lacked jurisdiction over the administrative functions of the executive branch! Contrast that decision with the recent Naira redesign (termed Naira swap) policy on which the same Supreme Court ruled against the executive branch. It is tempting to conclude that even the Supreme Court played politics with the census in 1963; but you can draw your own conclusions.

The 1973 census did not make the light of day to even be contested. As is the case with many high-powered commissions and committees, plenty of money was expended with no outcome. To lessen the attendant controversies, questions about religion and ethnicity were deleted from census questionnaires as from 1991. Yet, controversies still attended the 1991 and the 2006 figures.

Now fast forward 17 years later to 2023 and see how you as a Nigerian would want these questions answered: (1) Will it not be useful to know how many distinct ethnic groups we have in the country for planning, governance, and research purposes? (2) Will it not be useful at federal, state, and local government levels to know how many people belong to what faith—Islam, Christianity or neither of the two, also for planning, governance, and research purposes?

The truth, of course, is that we know that certain ethnic groups are concentrated in certain parts of the country. We also know that certain parts of the country are populated more by members of a certain faith than others. What we don’t know is the exact or at least approximate number in each case. We also don’t know exactly how mixed each state is in terms of ethnic and religious affiliation. Yet such data are useful for national and subnational planning and governance purposes.

Recent events in our political development show that religion and ethnicity are critical factors in our political behaviour, in employment opportunities and patterns, and in the distribution of resources. There is a sense in which the federal character principle acknowledges these demographics, which are often masked by artificial creations, such as region, geographical zone, and state. Moreover, the whole idea of zoning positions, such as the presidency at the federal level and the governorship at the state level, is a further acknowledgement of these demographics.

Even with its elimination from previous census data, religion still loomed large in the last presidential election. On the one hand, there were loud criticisms of a Muslim-Muslim ticket. On the other hand, voices were raised against overselling religion, leading to criticisms of overzealous Christian pastors, who converted church services into electoral tutorials. Similarly, the role of religion and ethnicity was evident in voting patterns across the country. We know, for example, that each of the four top presidential candidates got the majority of the votes within their ethnolinguistic group. We also know that some candidates exploited these identity markers more than others.

One question that has hardly been asked is why the government decided way back in 1991 to stop collecting data about religion and ethnicity. How was it determined that these two demographics were the determinants of controversy over past censuses, rather than other factors, such as under-enumeration, over-enumeration, poor data collection, archaic methodology, and non-simultaneity of the exercise across the country? After all, these are the factors identified for the rejection or outright cancellation of past censuses.

Fortunately, according to the NPC, technology is now being deployed such that “the 2023 Census will be Nigeria’s first Digital Census and will change how the Census is being conducted in Nigeria before now”. Now that the NPC has taken adequate measures to ensure efficient mapping of enumeration areas and adequate data collection, why still remain bound by the 1991 ban on religion and ethnicity, which, today, stare us in the face? For how long shall we continue to run away from collecting data about critical markers of our identities, while we continue to play identity politics?