Early in his presidential campaign, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, former Governor Peter Obi, had a ready answer for those who accused his campaign organization of lacking structure. By structure is meant the existence of campaign offices and an army of supporters in the 774 Local Government Areas of the country, which Obi’s campaign completely lacked at the beginning. Additionally, his political party currently has no siting Governor and less than 10 Members in the National Assembly, who could assist him in mobilising possible voters. Obi’s response at that time was simple: People are my structure, he claimed.

The truth is that the lack of structure helped Obi in two ways: One, he was able to secure the ticket of the Labour Party without a traditional primary election battle immediately after dumping the Peoples Democratic Party, which fielded him as Vice President in the 2019 presidential election. Two, while the major parties were enmeshed internal squabbles during and following the primaries, Obi had free rein in the dying Labour Party and was able to immediately start off his campaign.

He quickly galvanized the youths into the Obidient movement, using social media influencers and IT specialists, by reeling out statistics upon statistics, both true and false ones, and pointing out what is wrong with the country. He keeps telling the youths what they wanted to hear: I will make Nigeria change from consumption to production; generate so much megawatts of electricity per year; invest in education and health; create employment, and so on. Look at my record. I did it in Anambra state (although the present Governor of the State, Chukwuma Soludo, contested Obi’s claims).

As the campaign progressed, Obi kept redefining the constituencies of his structure. They now include the 100 million people living below the poverty line, the 35 million unemployed youths, those who spend all their earnings on feeding alone, and Almighty God.

But that’s not the only reason some youths are following Obi. To be sure, they are frustrated with the status quo; but Obi has ignited the fire of their emotion by convincing them that it is going to be the same status quo in 2023, if they vote for any of the establishment candidates in APC, PDP, and NNPP. That’s enough arrow in the hands of his followers to throw at the establishment candidates.

In no time, his followers took to social media, especially Twitter and Tiktok, to launch a campaign of disinformation and distortions, targeting the establishment candidates, especially the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whom they fear is the frontrunner. They falsely claimed that Rabiu Kwankwanso, the candidate of the NNPP, had accepted to be Vice-President to Obi. They mischievously developed a collage of photos, with Atiku Abubakar, the candidate of the PDP, eating with some poverty-stricken members of society, while Obi is giving out laptops to school children in the same photo collage.

They reserved the most ridiculous caricature for Tinubu. In one case, Tinubu’s head is put on the body of a cart pusher with Obi’s picture boldly plastered on the cart. What is worse, they revel in false allegations against Tinubu and falsify the mega size of his campaign rallies by posting false images of scanty gatherings somewhere else. The whole idea is to paint a messianic picture of Obi as the nation’s saviour and most popular presidential candiate.

Obi himself has continued to fuel this image. For example, he gave the impression that he went to Egypt to understudy their stable power supply and educational system so he could use the knowledge to improve power supply and the educational system in Nigeria. Thanks to investigative journalism, led by Sahara Reporters, it turned out that Obi lied to the Obidients and other would-be voters about his mission. He actually went to Egypt to attend the Africa Export-Import Bank conference held in that country.

It will be recalled that Obi was a businessman and banker, having been Chairman of two banks before he ventured into politics. He amassed so much wealth in his business dealings that he was able to keep funds in offshore accounts, without disclosing them when he became Governor (see PANDORA PAPERS: Inside Peter Obi’s secret businesses-and how he broke the law, Premium Times, October 4, 2021). Since the accounts were maintained during his governorship, it is unclear how much of Anambra funds went into them.

He recently turned the whole idea of structure on its head by suggesting that he wants to change the structure of the political system, the structure of corruption, the structure of poor governance, and so on. He even promised to declare war on electricity supply. How he wants to achieve these changes is never stated but his supporters have been eating his words and swallowing them.

The fact cannot be denied that Obi’s candidacy has galvanized some youths to take elections seriously. It also cannot be denied that there are also other youths who have been put off by the shenanigans of the Obi campaign and decided to register or collect their PVCs in order to vote for other candidates. Be that as it may, Obi’s decision to target the youths is very strategic. Over 30 million of them registered to vote. It is not clear at the end of the day how many of them will collect their PVCs and how many will eventually vote. Nevertheless, any candidate who neglects the youths in this and subsequent election cycles does so at his or her own peril.

Nevertheless, one thing is clear: Given the intoxication of his supporters by Obi’s rhetoric of change and youth empowerment, security agents must be on the alert when the election results are released, if they do not favour Obi. Afer all, the fanaticism of the Obidients is another variety of the fanaticism of the supporters of former US President Donald Trump and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who became riotous after their principals lost the election.

However, before that happens, the Obidients must be told that, like America’s Donal Trump, Obi is only riding on their back to his political goal. Besides, Obi is a political prostitute, who sleeps with one party today and another tomorrow. Having reached the ceiling in APGA as a two-term Governor, he moved to the PDP, where he was a Vice-Presidential nominee in 2019. Sensing that he could not win the presidential nomination in 2022, he moved to the LP where he negotiated the presidential ticket.  

The alarm bell has been sounding for quite some time that the explosion of the youth population, otherwise known as the youth bulge, is a ticking time bomb. It has led to the youth bulge theory, which postulates that rapidly growing population of youths in a country typically gives rise to rampant unemployment and large pools of disaffected youths, who are susceptible to recruitment into terrorist or rebel groups, gangs, fraudulent practices, and other criminal activities. The theory further states that the most vulnerable countries are those with weak political institutions and weak leadership.

The data backing up this theory come from the age structure of the world population, continent by continent, country by country. I concentrate here on Africa, with special focus on Nigeria. The data show that, of all continents, Africa has the youngest population, with about 70 percent under the age of 30. If the trend continues, Africa’s youth population is expected to surpass 830 million by 2050. While the global median age is about 30, at least 23 African countries are below this median, making them the youngest countries in the world.

Nigeria is among these countries, with over 70 percent of the population below age 30 and 60 per cent below age 25. The major triggers of population increase in the country include early marriages, high birth rates, lack of effective population control, and lack of access to whatever family planning services there are. So long as these triggers persist, the youth bulge in Nigeria will not abate and its effects will escalate.

To complicate matters for Nigeria, her immediate neighbours continue to exert demographic pressures on the country. This is particularly true of landlocked Niger Republic to the North, which has a median population of about 15 years!, making it the youngest population in the world. It is no wonder then that herders, bandits, and other criminals have been infiltrating the Northern border to cause havoc in Nigeria, even when the Nigerian government is squeezing her loan-stuffed treasury to bail out their government.

Just as the Nigerian government is not doing enough to control her borders, so is the government not doing enough to reduce demographic pressures on herself, despite the widely circulated estimate that, by 2050, Nigeria’s population will exceed 400 million, making her the third most populous country after China and India. By that time, those above 65 (currently only about 3 per cent of the population), would have died off, moving today’s teenagers (13-19) to between 40 and 46, while another army of youths would have replaced them.

The implications of the youth bulge have been very severe for Nigeria and may become even more disastrous, if appropriate steps are not taken. They are particularly evident in rising unemployment rates, consistently higher than 30 percent, and rampant criminality and attendant insecurity. Youths are also in the forefront of election thuggery and violence as well as protests to express their frustration and press their demands, as witnessed during the #EndSARS protests in 2020.

The linkage between the youth bulge and criminal activities stares us daily in the face. We see the teeming population of youths in cities across the country, roaming the streets, when they should be at school or at work. We see young criminals being paraded by security agents as terrorists, bandits, kidnappers, gunmen, cultists, Yahoo Boys, and so on. We encounter them in election thuggery and violence. We’ve seen disaffected youths in the forefront of protests in Nigeria and elsewhere, from the Arab Spring to the ongoing youth protests in Iran, now in the fourth month. According to the Global Protest Tracker by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, youths have been in the forefront of 400 antigovernment protests in more than 132 countries since 2017, many of them in Africa. At least 135 of these protests are directly on economic issues.

In recent years, conscious of their powerlessness in effecting change, Nigerian youths have become politically active in a bid to take advantage of their large number. Beginning in 2016, civil society organisations, headed by Samson Itodo of YIAGA Africa, began to clamour for age reduction in running for elective offices in order to give youths more opportunities for participation. The Age Reduction Bill, otherwise known as Not Too Young to Run, was signed into law by President Muhammadu Buhari in 2018.

This brings us to the youth bulge and the 2023 presidential election. Although 39 year-old Chris Imumolen is the youngest presidential candidate, a number of youths are supporting Peter Obi, the Presidential candidate of the Labour Party, using a variety of social media outlets to register their support, stuffed largely with exaggerations of Peter Obi’s records and activities and outright falsifications of other candidates’ records and activities. Of course, many more youths are supporting other candidates. It is just that the self-styled Obidients are louder in cyberspace, where there are no polling stations.

Youth participation in politics is one thing, controlling the youth bulge and providing youths with better life chances are yet another. Major tasks lie ahead for the next President in controlling the youth bulge, including (1) embarking on a reliable population count, rather than relying on estimates based on projections, as a basis for planning; (2) developing a population control policy; and (3) widening access to family planning measures to control high birth rates.

While the above measures will take time to produce the desired results, the task of minimising the existential threat of the youth bulge is even more urgent. The immediate term approach has been to provide palliatives in terms of temporary employment, such as the current government’s N-Power programme, and economic incentives, such as SME and startup loans.

However, more sustainable pathways to controlling the effects of the youth bulge lie in facilitating employability and creating appropriate jobs. This dual objective could be achieved by (1) providing adequate facilities, funding, and staff for meaningful education in which learning is geared towards the labour market, rather than mere certificates without job-ready skills and (2) creating an enabling environment (infrastructure, power, water, etc.) for agriculture, industries, light manufacturing, SMEs, digital hubs, and the service industry as these are the true job creators, not the government per se.

Since citizens are resident in particular communities in different states, it is high time power and resources were decentralised so that states could implement these programmes more effectively.

The Economy. In this section on the economy (Renewed Hope 2023, pages 11-25), four major premises for the proposed reforms are highlighted: (1) that the structural model upon which our national economy has always been based “needs major reform”, because it always has been out of alignment with the nation’s economic realities; (2) that, “if our nation is to live up to its promise, our youth need to be given a fairer deal than this”; (3) that it is necessary to adjust the allocation of revenue between federal and state governments in order to give states greater flexibility to foster grassroots development; and (4) that, while being fiscally active, government must be very prudent, because “public money is also a storehouse of public values and public trust”.

The proposed economic reforms call for radically new policies on fiscal and monetary matters; industrial plan; and housing development. There are also some modifications in other sectors, such as the agriculture and power sectors, which have a direct impact on the economic policies. The following brief discussion is limited to fiscal and monetary policies.

FISCAL POLICY. Tinubu/Shettima argue that basing the nation’s budget and fiscal policies on the dollar value of projected oil revenue not only artificially restricts the government’s fiscal latitude, it also unduly attracts attention towards a single source of revenue to the detriment of others, such as agriculture, cultural production, and the emerging service economy. A more efficient fiscal methodology is proposed in which budgeting will be based on the projected level of government spending as this optimizes growth and jobs without hyping inflation to unacceptable levels.

In order to achieve this growth-based budgeting, (1) a clear and mandatory inflationary ceiling on spending must be established and (2) the link must be broken between Naira expenditure and dollar inflows into the economy. In the meantime, however, the limits on government spending must be suspended, like the European Union and the United States have done, to accommodate the protracted global economic turmoil, aggravated by the pandemic, the Russian war in Ukraine, and domestic challenges in insecurity, unemployment, and the youth population bulge.

Taking advantage of the fiscal latitude provided by the budgetary reforms, a national infrastructure campaign will be launched, to which millions of unemployed Nigerians will be drafted to modernize national infrastructure. This would allow for (1) elaborate road construction to make transportation faster, cheaper, and safer; (2) national water supply scheme, via states and local governments, to bring portable water within reach-this will also involve reticulation of major dams and the construction of small-scale irrigation and water catchment system in rural areas; (3) completion of the Green Wall of the North, using environmentally viable flora, to mitigate deforestation and thus lessen economic migration and resultant social dislocation; and (4) involvement of Public Private Partnerships to attract more private sector investment in needed infrastructure projects.

Another aspect of the new fiscal policy is import substitution to curb reliance on imported goods. A two-prong approach will be employed. On the one hand, importation of non-essential products will be discouraged through policy measures, such as higher tariffs and processing fees and luxury taxes. On the other hand, international brands will be incentivized with tax credits and rebates to establish manufacturing plants in Nigeria for domestic and international consumption. Furthermore, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement will be exploited to boost domestic manufacturing and production.

The proposed tax reforms will not burden citizens with new taxes during times of economic weakness. However, effective tax policies and appropriate technology will be deployed to review the corporate tax system. The overall goal shall be to create a progressive tax regime, plug harmful loopholes, and enhance the efficiency of tax collection.

The fight against corruption will continue, with necessary modifications. The areas of focus shall include (1) civil service reform, to reduce bureaucracy, streamline agencies, and decrease inefficiency and waste; (2) capping fiscal expenditures on government buildings, salaries, and compensation packages; (3) weeding out ghost workers and ghost projects; and (4) applying appropriate sanctions, where necessary. At the same time, to boost morale, bona fide hardworking civil servants shall be commended and rewarded from time to time, while others shall be incentivized to optimize their stewardship.

Finally, on fiscal policy, the nation’s Internally Generated Revenue shall be boosted by tapping into appropriate skills and expertise, by reducing leakages in the financial system, and by attracting private sector initiatives.

MONETARY POLICY. If fiscal policy, which has multiple channels of transmission, is to spend public money in a way that maximizes employment of people and resources, and sometimes cater directly for a specific segment of the population, then monetary policy, whose channels are limited to banks and financial institutions, must buttress the overall goal of fiscal policy. Accordingly, monetary policy must focus on the exchange rate, interest rate, and price levels in order to appropriately support the fiscal policy.

For maximum benefit, a nation’s monetary policy must be internally generated and based on more stable currency founded on a real vibrant and productive economy. A stable exchange rate regime is critical to the proposed economic policy, whose goal is to optimally grow an economy driven by agricultural, industrial, infrastructural, and technological expansion.

Inflation targeting and management must ensure equilibrium between fiscal and monetary policies. The current inflation surge in the country is a global trend, caused by known production, distribution, and supply disruptions. In our case, it has been worsened by imposing higher interest rates and tighter money supply measures on an already depressed economy. A better solution is to find ways of increasing production and supply. In the final analysis, inflation must be targeted and effectively managed, while the right mix of fiscal and monetary tools must be deployed in order to grow the economy.

The measures to be taken to protect our exchange rate and preserve foreign currency reserves include; (1) limiting exposure to large debt obligations denominated in foreign currency: (2) limiting necessary foreign currency debt obligations to projects that generate cash flows from which the debt can be repaid; and (3) avoiding multiple exchange rates, which cause arbitrage, currency speculation, and financial dislocation; and (4) optimizing the exchange rate regime toward full harmonization.

Tinubu has been more specific on what he wants to do. Hear him at the business dialogue, organized by Business Forward, in Lagos on December 21, 222: “I will eliminate multiple FX exchange rate regimes when I become President in 2023”. Within hours, economic and financial experts began to hail his plan for a unified exchange rate regime.

Of the presidential candidates for 2023, no pair is better suited to propose and implement such reforms than a combination of a Corporate Accounts Executive and a Bank Executive, each of whom has been a Senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and a State Governor for eight years, namely, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and his running mate, Kashim Shettima, of the All Progressives Congress.

It is no exaggeration that Nigeria is bleeding. Every aspect of national life is crying for attention. In particular, national security has been under attack for years by terrorists, bandits, kidnappers, and so-called unknown gunmen. The threat they pose to other aspects of national life is why presidential candidates have been paying attention to national security in their campaigns.

In their outline of how they hope to renew hope in Nigeria, the Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and his running mate, Kashim Shettima, covered every aspect of national life in an illustrated 80-page festival of ideas. In this first of a serial review of selected aspects of their manifesto, I focus on their attempt to enhance national security for at least two reasons: First, insecurity is very high on the people’s agenda right now, partly because of the fear it has created in people over the past few years and partly because it may also disrupt the 2023 elections barely two months away. Second, how to tackle insecurity is the number one item on the Tinubu/Shettima agenda (see Renewed Hope 2023, pages 5-10).

Their approach to national security is based on three premises: One, that the fundamental responsibility of government is the protection of the lives and property of its citizens; two, that national security is the bedrock of a democratic and prosperous society; and three, that a proactive and intelligence driven security approach is needed to address the nation’s security threats. As much as possible, it should be prevention rather than cure.

Building on these premises, their approach to national security emphasizes (a) sweeping reforms of security forces across the board, that is, military, police, paramilitary, and intelligence personnel; (b) special attention to be paid to the welfare of security forces; (c) integration and expansion of existing database; (d) acquisition and deployment of state-of-the-art technologies of warfare, including communication and intelligence gathering technologies; and (e) intensification of international collaboration.

The reforms will involve massive recruitment, training, reorientation, and equipment upgrade (discussed in more detail below). The starting point is recruitment into the armed forces and the police. Some comparative data are necessary in order to appreciate the depth of personnel deficits in these security forces. According to the International Institute of Strategic Studies, the total number of Nigeria’s armed and paramilitary personnel is under 250,000, whereas Brazil, with comparable population, boasts over 2 million. Even small Cuba, with a population of just over 11 million, has over 1 million military and paramilitary personnel. Granting that Cuba is a communist state, that is still a huge number for a small population. Similarly, with only about 350,000 personnel, the Nigeria Police Force is relatively short-staffed.

It is not just a question of increased personnel numbers. Their salaries will be reviewed upward and special to their welfare concerns. In addition to addressing the concerns of frontline security personnel, “a special programme, providing housing, scholarships, stipends, and health insurance for the families of our fallen heroes will be created”.

Furthermore, more attention will be paid to the structure and practices of the security forces. For example, with regard to the Armed Forces, anti-terrorist battalions with special forces units will be created with the sole mission of employing necessary strategic and tactical initiative to take out terrorists, kidnappers, and bandits. Police reform will include freeing police personnel from extraneous duties, such as VIP security and guard duties. Moreover, the provision of security for public buildings and other critical assets will be transferred to the Nigeria Security and Civil Defense Corps.

The identity database is critical to national security as it provides the central tool for identifying who is who. In the United States, for example, a citizen’s Social Security Number is assigned from birth or from school or workplace or on naturalization and becomes a unique identifier of each citizen. The multiple identification numbers for each citizen in Nigeria (BVN, NIN, SIM Number, and so on) should eventually coalesce into one-the NIN. Tinubu/Shettima will build on current efforts of the Buhari administration to achieve full integration and expansion of the identity database.

Technology is central to the reforms of the national security apparatus. In addition to upgrading appropriate weapons systems and promoting local production of basic and essential military hardware and equipment, special attention will be paid to procuring up-to-date aerial surveillance equipment, such as drones, to proactively identify actual or potential attacks on critical national infrastructure, such as oil pipelines, power stations, airports, and rail transportation network. Governor Nasir el-Rufai’s answer to the question about attacks on oil pipelines at Chatham House earlier in the month was based on this section of Renewed Hope 2023.

In order to better secure borders, forests, and local communities, appropriate security agents will be refined and deployed as necessary, be they Customs Officers for borders, Forest Guards for forests, or local police and vigilante for local communities. As necessary, the Ministry of Interior, the National Assembly, State and Local Governments, and Local Communities will be consulted in developing appropriate measures.

Finally, the Tinubu/Shettima government seeks to prioritize collaborations with key neighbours, international partners and allies, and appropriate World bodies in order to ensure the safety of Nigerians at home and abroad. In this regard, participation in the operations of the Multinational Joint Task Force will be accelerated.

Although attention is paid to the role of local communities and “locally-based law enforcement institutions”, there is no direct reference to the role of traditional rulers and other local leaders. Nor is there any reference to religious leaders in the entire section on national security. Yet, these are the first points of contact for politicians in every local community throughout the country. Besides, these leaders have suffered from attacks by terrorists, kidnappers, and bandits. Their role should be explicitly courted in the implementation of the new security measures.

Another area to be explored in the implementation is the gathering, sharing, and utilization of intelligence. To be sure, this is not a matter for public discussion but readers should at least know that there are plans to coordinate and use intelligence appropriately in order to avert the kind of lapses experienced in the recent attack on Kuje prison.

His death was sudden. It was not a heart attack. It was not due to an untreated ailment. It was purely an accident due to a rowdy crowd surge. It happened at a campaign rally. It was an avoidable accident. It is not surprising that anyone would be injured or killed in a crowd surge. It happens on several occasions in Nigeria and around the globe. It is particularly frequent during political campaign rallies. It was nonetheless particularly shocking to learn about the sudden death in such a crowd surge of Honorable Abdulsobur Olayiwola Olawale, popularly known as Omititi.

My mind went back to two similar encounters I had, when I learned about the details of his accident. Both encounters were at inauguration ceremonies. The first was at the inauguration gala of President Muhammadu Buhari at the International Conference Center in Abuja on May 29, 2015. My company in line included former Governor of Ekiti State and then Deputy National Chairman (South) for the APC, Olusegun Oni, and the then APC Vice Chairman for the Southwest, Chief Pius Akinyelure with his wife, Esther. By my side was my wife, Monica. As we were making it to the door, a crowd surge began to push us from behind. We easily could have gone in unhindered but for stern-looking security men, who should have let us in after seeing our invitation cards. But no. They found one reason or the other to delay, forcing the surge of the crowd on us. We were only lucky to have made it through the door. We could hear screams and shouts as we entered.

My second experience was on December 7, 2015, at the Ooni’s palace in Ile-Ife during the inauguration of Oba Adeyeye Eniitan Ogunwusi, Ojaja II, CFR, as the 51st and current Ooni of Ife. My wife and I were in the same group as the current Osemawe of Ondo, Oba Dr. Victor Adesimbo Kiladejo, CFR, Jilo III. Again, a crowd surge pushed us against security officers as we moved almost breathlessly into the Hall. In both cases, the problem was caused by the manning of the gates, the aides of leading politicians, who shoved their boss through the crowd, and the inefficiency of gate security officers.

The shock of Omititi’s death was intensified by my knowledge of him as a friend and pragmatic progressive politician, who was full of ideas. Besides, Omititi did not go into politics, without a Plan B. Here was a well educated gentleman, who thought he could help his people than he could help himself were he to stay in paid employment for which he was well educated. In addition to a National Certificate of Education from Tai Solarin College of Education (now Lagos State University of Education), he bagged a BSc, in Business Administration from the University of Lagos and a Masters degree in Public Administration from Lagos State University.

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Omititi and I held regular telephone conversations. We also had several meetings, two of which immediately came to mind. He called me sometime in 2018 to discuss issues with his second-term bid and wanted to meet with me in Akure to plan strategies. As I was in Osogbo at the time, I told him to meet me there. He came and, together with then Governor Rauf Aregbesola, we came up with a plan. I was charged with the responsibility of calling Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu about his plight, and I did. His problem was his previous relationship with Dr. Muiz Adeyemi Banire, SAN, who had fallen out with Asiwaju. He was Banire’s Personal Assistant, but chose to remain with the mainstream after Banire’s temporary self-withdrawal from party activities. At the end of the day, Omititi got a second term and the rest is now history.

The second memorable meeting between us was in Abuja on June 9, 2022. He had come to discuss his participation in Tinubu’s presidential campaign. He wanted to be on the team, having previously joined the Lagos Support Group for Asiwaju. On that occasion, he shared the details of his loss in the primaries owing to manipulations by a powerful Lagos politician. I assured him that I would assist in ensuring his participation on the presidential campaign team.

Since Omititi’s demise, encomiums have been loud among his colleagues, top APC politicians, and his supporters about his devotion to work and effectiveness as a two-term lawmaker in the Lagos State House of Assembly, representing Mushin Constituency II. It was in recognition of his services to the party, the people he represented, and his connection with the grassroots of Lagos politics that he was made the Chairman of the House Committee on Local Government and Community Services.

His good deeds went beyond the party and Lagos state. He was closely connected with his roots in Abeokuta. That’s why he was one of seven chiefs installed by the Alake of Egbaland, Oba Michael Adedotun Aremu Gbadebo, CFR, on November 20, 2021. He bagged the chieftaincy title of Seriki Bobagunwa of Egbaland.

Omititi’s last major public appearance before his death was on Friday, November 11, 2022, when he was the goalkeeper at a celebratory soccer match to mark the 50th birthday anniversary of the Speaker, Lagos State House of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa, at the assembly playing grounds. Omititi was a close associate of Obasa and he highlighted the relationship as issue that was played up to his disadvantage by a top Lagos politician, who was at loggerheads with Obasa.

As we mourn the death of Omititi, it is also necessary to commiserate with the government and people of Lagos State for the loss of notable members of the APC political family there. One was Princess Adedoyin Raliat Ayinde (nee Ojora), who died on Sunday, November 13, after a brief illness. She was the wife of Tayo Ayinde, the Chief of Staff to the Governor of Lagos State, Babajide Sanwo-Olu. The other death was that of Mrs. Modupe Awodogan, popularly known as “Iya Oniyan,” who died the same day as Omititi after a brief illness.

I cannot but observe a common feature in the media coverage of the three deaths-the concealment of the cause or manner of death. It is a common feature of Nigerian death culture to hide information. What is in a “brief illness” that we cannot know? Yet, such knowledge could be useful in public enlightenment and awareness of certain illnesses. Such knowledge cannot detract from the quality of our condolences to the families, friends, and political associates.

Four quick introductory notes about American elections: First, they are held every two years on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Second, within this system, the President is elected every four years to a four year term and no President serves for more than two terms, although the terms need not be back-to-back. Third, there are 100 Senators (two per state), each serving a 6-year term. However, their election is staggered as only about one-third of them go for election every two years. Fourth, there are 435 members of the House of Representatives, each serving only for two years at a time. There is no term limit for Senators and House members.

It is also important to note that election administration in the United States is highly decentralized and each state has different rules for local election administration. Most states allow mail-in ballots and early in-person voting with different rules. That’s why election results are not reported at the same time across the states.

All 435 House members, 35 of 100 Senators, and 36 of 50 Governors were up for election or reelection last week. It is called a midterm election, because it occurs in the middle of the President’s four-year tenure.

This elaborate system is designed to give the electorate a chance every two years to assess the performance of the President in power, all members of the House of Representatives, at least one-third of Senators, and state some state officials. This way, poor performers are kicked out, while continuity is maintained by about two-thirds of the Senators and by returned members of both chambers.

Traditionally, the President and the party in power normally lose an average of 40 seats in Congress during midterm elections. However, President Biden and the Democratic Party broke records on many fronts in the latest midterm election. First, against all odds, the Democratic Party retained control of the Senate and nearly retained control of the House. Since 1922 (a century ago!), this was one of only four midterm elections during a President’s first term that the party in power attained such an electoral feat.

Also at the state level, Democrats not only got their Governors reelected, they won the three open governorship seats, which were previously held by Republicans. Moreover, Democrats won powerful positions of Secretary of State and Attorney General, especially in so-called swing states. Besides, more states won full control of the levers of power previously held by Republicans.

Michigan and Arizona are two of several states in which Democratic gains were maximized. In both states, Trump-endorsed Republican candidates for Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General lost to Democratic candidates. Michigan voters elected a Democratic majority legislature for the first time in 40 years to strengthen the hold of Michigan Governor, Gretchen Whitmer, on power. She was the Governor who was nearly kidnapped by Trump supporters, following the 2020 presidential election, which some Republican officials in the state refused to certify.

Yet, the odds were stacked against Biden and the Democratic party: Inflation, rising costs, Biden’s low approval rating, and widespread denial of his election by Republicans. Further encouraged by doomsday pollsters, Republicans were anticipating a red wave before the election (Red being the media colour code for Republicans and Blue for Democrats).

The critical question is: What factors led to the unexpected pushback against possible Republican gains and to the reversal of anticipated Democratic losses? The answer begins with Trump but does not end with him. Trump led majority of Republicans to believe that the 2020 election was rigged against him. During the Republican primaries, he backed only candidates, who denied Biden’s election, even where such candidates were considered weaker than their Democratic challengers, who were more experienced career politicians.

In pursuance of election denialism, Trump supporters marched on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, to disrupt the certification of Biden’s election by Congress. Democrats, then in control of Congress, set up a Committee to investigate the insurrection. The Committee thoroughly educated those who were originally skeptical about the damage done to America’s democracy and image by the insurrectionists, by tactically playing videos after videos of the event and releasing the Committee’s findings as investigations progressed. As the midterm election closed in, hundreds of insurrectionists and many of Trump’s close associates had been indicted or imprisoned for their actions or complicity. Trump himself had been subpoenaed to testify. Trump’s image was on the decline as more voters saw through him and election denialism.

In their supportive campaigns, President Biden and former President Barrack Obama smartly piggybacked on the revelations and findings of the January 6 Committee on the insurrection. “Democracy is who we are, and Democracy is on the ballot in this election”, Biden said repeatedly in several televised rallies in support of Democratic candidates.

To complicate matters for Republicans, Trump-appointed Supreme Court judges led the reversal of abortion right, which was established by the Supreme Court in a 7-2 ruling in 1973, which held, among other considerations, that abortion right was guaranteed by the right to privacy. Many women, especially Democrats and Independents, were up in arms against the latest Supreme Court ruling. True, economic considerations were paramount among voters, but many, especially women and Independents, overwhelmingly sided with Democrats on abortion right. Over 60 percent of Independents voted for Democratic candidates during the midterm election.

Perhaps even more significantly, 63 percent of young voters (aged 18-29) voted for Democratic candidates. One of them, Maxwell Forster (25), was even elected to Congress. The youths sided with Biden and Democrats on abortion rights, climate change, gun control, student loan forgiveness, and the erosion of American democracy by election denialism.

The outcome of the American midterm election has serious implications for Nigeria and Nigerians in the forthcoming 2023 general elections. First, it underscores the increasing role of women, youths, and Independents (that is, non-party members) in elections. These days, the three groups are in the majority in every election across the globe. Politicians, who ignore them and their concerns, do so at their own peril.

Second, Nigerian politicians and their supporters, who spread fake news against political opponents, should learn from the American midterm election that there are serious repercussions for such behaviour.

Finally, the question need be raised: When and how will Nigeria’s political culture be “cured” well enough to accommodate a decentralized and relatively hitch-free American-type electoral process, which accommodates mail-in ballots and early voting to reduce the stress on voting on election day voting and eliminate the need for security agents?